I’ll point out that we’re pretty terrible assessing situation (team context) in a normal year with preseason games and full mini camps and training camps. How much worse will we be assessing situations with hardly any information? As quick examples from 2019: Rams running game (and offense really), Ravens passing game, Miami entire offense, Jets entire offense, etc.
I don’t personally think Leonard Fournette is very good (special, if you will). I think he’s a volume back that needs 20-25 carries a week so he can pop 3-4 of them. He adds nothing as a receiver despite his 70+ receptions which might as well have been handoffs (no route run, just dump off). The Jags release him and everyone immediately says they’re tanking.
Well, for one, I don’t believe the coaches are trying to lose as it can cost them their jobs (especially Marrone who could’ve easily been fired this past cycle, and Gruden who was just run out of Washington). Two, Coughlin is gone, and Gruden’s offense is new, which all is to say Fournette didn’t fit what they wanted to do on offense (which certainly seems to be turn the keys over to Minshew and Chark and Shenault and see what happens).
It’s not quite the same situation, given Peterson’s age, but a new power structure / coaching staff in Washington cuts Peterson and everyone just nods along and says, “Man, Gibson must be awesome!” The actions of the Jags (specific to their offense), IMO, are no different.
Presumably Minshew and Chark are as good or better than they were a year ago. They added Eifert as a pass-catching TE and drafted Shenault to add another weapon. They still have Westbrook and Keelan Cole for receiving depth. The OL (which allowed Fournette to have a pretty big year last year) returns all five starters. Why would we assume the offense, specifically, is going to be worse than they were a year ago? Because the team traded defensive players?
I’m not intentionally being obtuse (understanding a worse defense can affect game script), but their defense last year was 9th worst in the league. The worst defenses still produced offensive stars at RB (Arizona was worst, and Cinci, Houston, Washington, Seattle, and NYG were 4th - 8th worst on defense). Nobody was avoiding Drake/Edmonds, Mixon, Hyde, Peterson/Guice, Carson/Penny, or Barkley. Obviously some of those are extremely talented, but is it so far fetched to think Robinson could be as good as 34 YO AP or JAG Carlos Hyde?
Maybe James Robinson isn’t as good as Fournette, or maybe he is and just was hidden at a small school with no in-person workouts, no pro day, no team visits. The coaches are raving about him (the same coaches who will lose their jobs if the Jags fail), and the team actions continue to point to him being their best option.
I just don’t buy that as of right now, sight unseen, we know they’re terrible, a terrible situation for RBs, and at best he’s a bye week fill in and more likely is cut in a few weeks. Maybe that reveals itself over time, but as of today I think there’s reason for optimism.