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RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (5 Viewers)

A good move in real football. Disappointed as a Zeke fantasy manager, but I certainly can't fault him if he has any chance of getting anything close to $6M with performance bonuses. It will be interesting to see what the base amount is, probably not a lot. Also interesting to see what hoops would need to be jumped to reach $6M, probably quite a bit.

Also interested in knowing what Stevenson managers would pay for the handcuff. Future 3rd? 3/4 swap? I considered Zeke an easy hold as a free agent that could be plugged into any contender's backfield that takes a hit, but it's a lot harder to use the roster spot now that his fantasy relevance in lineup leagues depends on one guy going down, given there's not a lot of ceiling to buy into in the first place.
 
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As Pats RB2 I love this move. Great at pass blocking, and better short yardage runner than Stevenson. It will also serve as load management for Stevenson, who definitely wore down at the end of last season. This signing is bad news for Kevin Harris's chances of making the 53.
 
bostonfred said:
I love it for the pats are you kidding? He's not the 22 year old star rb but he's a great pass blocker, can catch out of the backfield, and he can take a ton of carries to soften defenses, open play action and close out games in the 4 minute drill. I like Rhamondre but I hated them having all of their eggs in one basket.
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Yeah this is how I'm viewing it. Anyone who thought Rhamondre's was going to be the 3 down workhorse was dreaming IMO.
 
A better LeGarrett Blount than LeGarrett Blount.

Not thrilled with the character issues, but apparently Cook and Hunt also have current or prior issues.
 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
A better LeGarrett Blount than LeGarrett Blount.
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LeGarrette Blount was better than Zeke at this point in Zeke's career.

Careful what everybody is saying. Zeke looked slow last year. Rhamondre will see a lot of touches this year. Pierre Strong will probably spell Rhamondre when all is said and done. This is a depth signing.
 
rockaction said:
Interesting. He'll spell Rhamondre. This is better news for Rhamondre than Dalvin Cook signing there.

Anyway, the contract is worth "up to" six million dollars. I'd love to hear @menobrown chime in about this. He's extra spicy when it comes to ego-laden contract reporting. IMO, there's no way he signed for barely anything guaranteed. This is all incentives if I had to guess.
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[Schefter] Compensation update: Zeke Elliott’s one-year deal with the Patriots includes a $3 million base salary, a $1 million signing bonus and can be worth up to $6 million with incentives.
 
For a free snag Ill be curious to see where he goes. But I had stevenson as a keeper so that sorta rains in that parade a bit.
 
rockaction said:
Interesting. He'll spell Rhamondre. This is better news for Rhamondre than Dalvin Cook signing there.

Anyway, the contract is worth "up to" six million dollars. I'd love to hear @menobrown chime in about this. He's extra spicy when it comes to ego-laden contract reporting. IMO, there's no way he signed for barely anything guaranteed. This is all incentives if I had to guess.
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$3m base with $1m bonus which to me is essentially $4m guaranteed. Add in incentives and it’s a nice deal for Zeke, more then I’d have thought.
 
Savatage79 said:
For a free snag Ill be curious to see where he goes. But I had stevenson as a keeper so that sorta rains in that parade a bit.
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As a Stevenson owner, I was expecting them to bring someone in regardless. I guess I would rather have Zeke in there as the occasional touchdown vulture then a receiving specialist that would kill Stevensons PPR value.

The 2023 New England Patriots are not the 2022 Dallas Cowboys. I don’t expect as many goal line chances… Stevenson scores touchdowns from a little further out.

Seems like a good complementary back. Seems like the Patriots think so too. IIRC, Zeke averaged 2 yards per carry for the last few games he played with Dallas.

Agree that he’s an irritant, but again, I was bracing myself for them to sign someone. Better Zeke, than Dalvin Cook or Leonard Fournette in my opinion.
 
Fine depth. I don't think he has the pull everyone here does. I'm guessing he's more of a back up than giving him short yardage or this n that.
I'd be more concerned if he got a hot hand and stayed in while Rhanondre sat.
I expect main back, scat back, Elliot to give breathers to whomever whenever.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Better Zeke, than Dalvin Cook or Leonard Fournette in my opinion.
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I agree Stevenson owners would probably rather have Zeke over Cook, but I think Zeke is more of a threat than Lenny would be given Zeke’s strong all around game (even if he’s lost a few steps).

I don’t think this is Corey Dillon all over again, but Belichick historically has had a penchant for veterans.
 
Lansdowne said:
This signing is bad news for Kevin Harris's chances of making the 53.
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Harris didn't stick with the team last year either. He was cut and added to the practice squad. That is probably the mostly likely outcome this year as well (unless they have seen enough and don't think he could amount to much).

I have heard various people discuss the NE RB situation, with the game day roster potentially Stevenson, Elliott, and Strong as the only guys active. That would likely result in Taylor and Harris to the practice squad, with Ty Montgomery to IR or released if they don't think he will be healthy.
 
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports the Patriots are expected to sign Ezekiel Elliott to a one-year deal worth up to $6 million.

Zeke visited with the Patriots in late July and is now set to join the team. The former Cowboy rushed for 876 yards and 12 touchdowns last season while averaging a career-worst 3.8 yards per carry. The former All-Pro has steadily declined over the last few seasons and averaged an underwhelming 2.0 YPC in his final four games in 2022. Zeke’s signing could prove annoying for Rhamondre Stevenson drafters as he’ll challenge Stevenson for touches on the goal line and in short-yardage situations. Elliott’s best days are behind him, but he’s a touchdown vulture who could provide the occasional top-24 fantasy week. A potentially light workload could make him difficult to trust on a week-to-week basis.

- Ian Rapoport, Twitter
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Pats needed another RB after Stevenson...Montgomery is always hurt and no one knows what he really is anyways...Harris doesn't look like he'll be anything more than a journeyman...Strong is an unknown quantity so you can't rely on him yet...JJ Taylor must have pictures of BB and Patricia together because it makes no sense that he is still on the roster...after the Pats passed on RB in both the draft and free agency it was just a matter of time before they added another RB because their current depth chart was an accident waiting to happen...I don't think this is awful news for Stevenson because Zeke is what he is at this point but if he becomes the goal-line RB that will ding his fantasy value a bit...oddly enough I think this can really hurt Strong (not that anyone is very high on him) as Zeke is a quality receiving back and excels in pass protection which could become very valuable as the Pats O line has big question marks...overall I am good with this signing as Zeke fills a need for the Pats and hopefully he brings a little attitude to an offense that badly needs it.
 
Bri said:
www.pro-football-reference.com

Ezekiel Elliott Career Game Log | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Get Ezekiel Elliott Career game log for regular season and playoff games on Pro-football-reference.com.
www.pro-football-reference.com www.pro-football-reference.com

Look at the last couple years.
30-40 yards
Several games with a meh average per carry

He hit his wall already
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Yea, but he did snag 12 tds last year and about 1000 yards. I don't think zeke is as washed as many believe, I think on the right team he could still make a dent. I really feel he might be one of those td vultures this year
 
A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, the Patriots acquired another old and washed up running back. He was coming off a career worst season with only 541 rushing yards and a 3.9 ypc. That player lost his job to a 25-year-old, 4th round pick named Rudi Johnson. The 30-year-old running back the Patriots brought in had 1,865 total carries up until that point.

Elliot is coming off a season where he had a career low 876 rushing yards. He lost his job to Tony Pollard, a 25-year-old pick named Tony Pollard. Elliot at 28 has amassed 1,881 total carries up until this point.

Is Zeke going to turn into Corey Dillon revisited? Unlikely, but their situations are pretty similar. Dillon did not come in with much competition at RB. Elliott comes in with Stevenson younger, faster, and fresher. I think people may be surprised what Elliott gets as a workload.

"Old guy" RB numbers in NE . . .

2001 - Antowain Smith (29) - 1349 YFS / 13 TD . . . 84.3 YFS/gm
2002 - Antowain Smith (30) - 1225 YFS / 8 TD . . . 76.6 YFS/gm
2003 - Antowain Smith (31) - 734 YFS / 3 TD . . . 56.5 YFS/gm
2004 - Corey Dillon (30) - 1738 YFS / 13 TD . . . 115.9 YFS/gm
2004 - Kevin Faulk (28) - 503 YFS / 3 TD . . . 45.7 YFS/gm
2005 - Corey Dillon (31) - 914 YFS / 13 TD . . . 76.2 YFS/gm
2005 - Kevin Faulk (29) - 405 YFS / 0 TD . . . 50.6 YFS/gm
2006 - Corey Dillon (32) - 959 YFS / 13 TD . . . 60.0 YFS/gm
2006 - Kevin Faulk (30) - 479 YFS / 3 TD . . . 31.9 YFS/gm
2007 - Kevin Faulk (31) - 648 YFS / 1 TD . . . 40.5 YFS/gm
2007 - Sammy Morris (30) - 419 YFS / 3 TD . . . 69.8 YFS/gm
2008 - Kevin Faulk (32) - 993 YFS / 6 TD . . . 66.2 YFS/gm
2008 - Sammy Morris (31) - 888 YFS / 7 TD . . . 68.3 YFS/gm
2008 - Lamont Jordan (30) - 363 YFS / 4 TD . . . 45.4 YFS/gm
2009 - Kevin Faulk (33) - 636 YFS / 3 TD . . . 42.4 FYS/gm
2009 - Sammy Morris (32) - 499 YFS / 2 TD . . . 41.6 YFS/gm
2009 - Fred Taylor (33) - 286 YFS / 4 TD . . . 47.6 YFS/gm
2014 - LaGarrette Blount (28) - 299 YFS / 3 TD . . . 59.8 YFS/gm
2015 - LaGarrette Blount (29) - 746 YFS / 7 TD . . . 62.1 YFS/gm
2016 - LaGarrette Blount (30) - 1199 YFS / 18 TD . . . 75.0 YFS/gm
2018 - Rex Burkhead (28) - 317 YFS / 1 TD . . . 40.1 YFS/gm
2019 - Rex Burkhead (29) - 581 YFS / 3 TD . . . 44.7 YFS/gm
2020 - Rex Burkhead (30) - 466 YFS / 6 TD . . . 46.6 YFS/gm
2020 - James White (28) - 496 YFS / 3 TD . . . 35.4 YFS/gm
2021 - Brandon Bolden (31) - 631 YFS / 3 TD . . . 37.1 YFS/gm

The league has gotten away from teams playing older backs (not that 28 is exceedingly old). I listed 25 running backs. The two years by Dillon and Blount were outliers, but most of the time those players averaged 40-50 YFS/gm. Their totals may have been low, but that's because several times players suffered an injury. So far in his career, Elliott has been pretty durable.

What does it all mean? I will randomly say that Elliott tweaks something and misses 2 games. That leaves 15 games in which he will play. I think Zeke has more to offer than some of the really old retreads on that list (Morris, Jordan, Taylor, Bolden), so I think Elliott will end up in the 50 YFS/gm range in the games he is a support player. That would put him around 750 YFS. IMO, If Stevenson gets dinged, Elliott will get more work (NE doesn't appear to have an experienced option other than Elliott). Call it an extra 100 YFS when RS is out. I also think NE brought him in to get goal line touches, so overall, I would probably project Elliott for 850 YFS with 8 TD. In standard scoring leagues, that would probably rank him around RB30.
 
Not sure I get the red zone touch panic. Even last season Rhamondre was only getting about 50% of the red zone touches (of which we was converting them into TDs 10% of the time, a very solid number). I think Zeke gets his share for sure, but I don't see it coming at the expense of Rhamondre; nor do I think anyone can say he's definitively better at this than Rhamondre after seeing him last year. In fact, looking at Elliots YPC numbers the last year, I think RZ attempts from the 10+ yard line out will lean heavily in Rhamondre's favor; at least skill/ability wise.

The only thing I think really changed with this pickup is the touches Rhamondre already wasn't going to get will be going mostly to Zeke, instead of being split between 2-3 backups. And agree with others, I'd be more concerned if they had picked up a backup with a high receiving upside as that's where most of Stevenson's scoring came from anyhow. I think Rhamondre will still get his ~200 rushing attempts, and if there is any regression in his receptions it would be more likely due to the offense improving as a whole than Zeke.

I'm interested to know what the $3 million in incentives are. Patriots are notoriously cheap; and any of them tied to total yardage, snap count, TDs scored, etc. would only push me to believe they will cap his ability to reach those milestones preventing them from making those payouts unless injury strikes and he's really needed.
 
Apparently, I am not the only one that has some concerns about Stevenson. I took a look at the FBG's staff rankings: Sam Wagman (RB15), Sigmund Bloom (16), Christian Williams (23), and Anthony Amico (26). Looking at the rankings on Fantasy Pros, 8 experts have Stevenson ranked between 20-23. Everyone just giving their best guesses.
 
I guess it isn’t $4 million guaranteed:

Zeke’s Contract

He gets a signing bonus of $600,000 and a base salary of $1.55 million. (The salary reduces to $1 million if he suffers a season-ending injury before the first game of the regular season.)

He also has $50,000 per game tied to being on the active roster. That’s another $850,000, in all.

He also has $3 million in potential incentives. They fall into two categories, and are earned $300,000 at a time.

For 975 yards from scrimmage, he gets $300,000. For 1,100 yards from scrimmage, he gets another $300,000.

Ditto at 1,225 yards from scrimmage, 1,350 yards from scrimmage and 1,475 yards from scrimmage, up to $1.5 million.

He also gets $300,000 for participating in 50 percent of the offensive snaps. Another $300,000 is added at 55 percent, 60 percent, 65 percent, and 70 percent.

Thus, Elliott gets $6 million if he suits up for every regular-season game, if he generates more than 1,475 yards from scrimmage, and if he’s on the field for at least 70 percent of the offensive snaps.
 
Kevrunner said:
I guess it isn’t $4 million guaranteed:

Zeke’s Contract

He gets a signing bonus of $600,000 and a base salary of $1.55 million. (The salary reduces to $1 million if he suffers a season-ending injury before the first game of the regular season.)

He also has $50,000 per game tied to being on the active roster. That’s another $850,000, in all.

He also has $3 million in potential incentives. They fall into two categories, and are earned $300,000 at a time.

For 975 yards from scrimmage, he gets $300,000. For 1,100 yards from scrimmage, he gets another $300,000.

Ditto at 1,225 yards from scrimmage, 1,350 yards from scrimmage and 1,475 yards from scrimmage, up to $1.5 million.

He also gets $300,000 for participating in 50 percent of the offensive snaps. Another $300,000 is added at 55 percent, 60 percent, 65 percent, and 70 percent.

Thus, Elliott gets $6 million if he suits up for every regular-season game, if he generates more than 1,475 yards from scrimmage, and if he’s on the field for at least 70 percent of the offensive snaps.
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Pretty safe bet that we can pencil Zeke in for less than 50% of snaps and less than 975 yards from scrimmage.
 
Kevrunner said:
I guess it isn’t $4 million guaranteed:

Zeke’s Contract

He gets a signing bonus of $600,000 and a base salary of $1.55 million. (The salary reduces to $1 million if he suffers a season-ending injury before the first game of the regular season.)

He also has $50,000 per game tied to being on the active roster. That’s another $850,000, in all.

He also has $3 million in potential incentives. They fall into two categories, and are earned $300,000 at a time.

For 975 yards from scrimmage, he gets $300,000. For 1,100 yards from scrimmage, he gets another $300,000.

Ditto at 1,225 yards from scrimmage, 1,350 yards from scrimmage and 1,475 yards from scrimmage, up to $1.5 million.

He also gets $300,000 for participating in 50 percent of the offensive snaps. Another $300,000 is added at 55 percent, 60 percent, 65 percent, and 70 percent.

Thus, Elliott gets $6 million if he suits up for every regular-season game, if he generates more than 1,475 yards from scrimmage, and if he’s on the field for at least 70 percent of the offensive snaps.
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Just proving that what gets reported is often not 100% accurate. It's probably a safe bet to guess he will be on the opening day roster, so that gets him $2.15 million. He's been active an average of like 15 games a season . . . that's another $750K. So he's close to what my initial guess was ($3M with $3M in incentives). The only way he sniffs the $300K tiers is if RS is out for multiple games. I guess the first one (975 YFS) is not completely out of the question, but the others are likely pipe dreams.
 
Looking like a steal of a deal for the Patriots, which makes sense. Heard a few times they are paying him more than they would have to keep Damien Harris. Not sure if that's the case now with all the details out.
 
I did some digging and I’m coming around to the possibility that Zeke may not be washed just yet. Full disclosure I have him as my handcuff to my Stevenson share in dynasty, in hopes that I never have to use him. But please hear me out (and apologies if I’m repeating talking points already made, I admit I haven’t caught up with everything being said).

Back in 2021, Zeke suffered from and played through a right knee contusion in Week 9. Prior to that game he was posting 118-561-5 rushing in 7 games (on pace for 287-1387-12 for the season). He hobbled off late in the first quarter to put a heat pad on his knee. He came back into the game second quarter and finished up with 10-51-0 and 3-25-0, much of that a result of game script as the Cowboys trailed all game and abandoned the run early. The next week he was held to 14-41-2 rushing, still feeling the effects of his injury. It got worse when he suffered a partial tear of his PCL the week after that against the Chiefs. He wasn’t the same runner after that (95-339-3 in 8 games, a 202-720-6 pace if extrapolated to 17 games).

Fast forward to 2022, where through the first six weeks Zeke had 94/386/2, a pace of 266-1094-6, down considerably from where he was at the previous year. Could’ve been still feeling the effects of the Grade 3 PCL tear, which I believe he didn’t get surgery on. In Week 7 he suffered a Grade 2 MCL sprain, playing through it to finish the day with 15-57-2 and then sitting out the next two games. Came back and finished the second half of the season with a 122-433-8 line, a 259-920-17 pace. Not his usual self but still a better second half performance than his 2021 second half of the year.

Now we’re in 2023, two years removed from his PCL tear and a year removed from his MCL sprain. He looks spry and healthy in camp so far. He’s at the age (28 now) where RB’s production tend to start falling off a cliff, so even if he hadn’t been injured the last two seasons this would be a time in his career to be wary. But if he’s not slowed down by injury, he could still be very effective as a runner. That 287-1387-12 pace he was on wasn’t that long ago (21 months to be precise). He’s had a lot more tread on the tires since then of course, but if he can recapture most of who he was before those two injuries, look out.

I’m of the mind that this is still Stevenson’s backfield, and that Zeke is here to help with the load (say, 8-10 carries per game) while not taking the lead role away. Stevenson is the healthier, younger, better bet. I’m just saying that Zeke at his best is better than Stevenson at his best, and if Zeke proves himself to be back to normal, this could be a lot more interesting than expected. Corey Dillon had the best season of his career at age 30 with the Patriots after 1865 career carries with the Bengals. Zeke finished his Cowboys career with 1881 career carries and is two years younger than Dillon was. As Anarchy already said before, different era, different team, different coaches. But it shows there’s precedent for a seemingly washed up RB finding new life with a new team. I wouldn’t bet on it happening here, but crazier things have happened, and I can easily see a scenario where Zeke still maintains standalone value in what, in theory, should be a more functional offense than what we saw last year.

Don’t go overboard but keep an open mind about having a spot at the end of your bench for Zeke. That’s all I’m saying.
 
As I posted in the RS thread, former Pats players and coaches have talked about Zeke and said he is taking over the Damien Harris role and will be RB 1A. Maybe they are speculating and guessing, but they generally said BB loved him. BOB was interviewed and said he’s seen Zeke since he coached at PSU. If he shows he can be productive, he should get a decent workload.
 
Anarchy99 said:
So he's close to what my initial guess was ($3M with $3M in incentives).
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Actually, it's closer to what I said, but hey, what's a million between friends? I had said about two million guaranteed, which is about his signing bonus ($600,000) plus his roster bonus (1.55M), which I was factoring in.

So allow me to victory lap this one. The $850,000 in weekly roster bonuses is nowhere close to a guarantee.

Either way, he's not hitting those incentives.
 
Lansdowne said:
I’m just saying that Zeke at his best is better than Stevenson at his best, and if Zeke proves himself to be back to normal, this could be a lot more interesting than expected.
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There’s a very low chance of seeing Zeke at his best though. Sure maybe injuries slowed him down over the last two seasons, but even if that was the sole reason, why should we not expect that to continue. Knee injuries take their toll.
I agree with the overalll premise that he’s not totally washed and can still be productive and will eat into perhaps more of the workload than expected - but it’s going to be crystal clear who the more effective back is when we watch the Pats’ games.
 
Dr. Octopus said:
it’s going to be crystal clear who the more effective back is when we watch the Pats’ games.
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Are we clear?!

Crystal.

Sorry, if you can't quote A Few Good Men courtroom scenes, what can you quote?

I agree with the sentiment, though. Stevenson is right in his prime and Zeke is a year or two away from his. Landsdowne's point is one I desperately want to believe, but I doubt it. Note I'm not speculating on usage because I'm not in the coaching staff's heads.
 
Lansdowne said:
I did some digging and I’m coming around to the possibility that Zeke may not be washed just yet. Full disclosure I have him as my handcuff to my Stevenson share in dynasty, in hopes that I never have to use him. But please hear me out (and apologies if I’m repeating talking points already made, I admit I haven’t caught up with everything being said).
Click to expand...

Good initiative here. I have felt for a while that people have been too quick to put Zeke in the grave based on his finish to the 2021 & 2022 seasons without a lot of consideration to healthy enough to play doesn't mean that he was anywhere near 100%.

For those that want to put eyeballs on what some of us Zeke holdouts are hoping for, take a look at the Cowboys 2022 week 6 highlights vs Eagles and week 7 highlights vs Lions. This is the point where you can say that he should be fully recovered from the '21 PCL, before getting banged up in '22.

Week 6 - Second half highlights vs Eagles. They are playing from behind, so context matters, but there are some really nice runs in here on the way to a 13-for-81 line. Also some great flashes from Jake Ferguson in this game for re-draft folks punting on TE and looking for a preview.

Week 7 - Gets injured at the end of the first half. Stays in to "high" jump someone to start the second half.

These are just highlights, but still looks like a guy that has a lot to offer, even if he's not what he was. I have him in a lineup league and I'm not expecting anything more than a bye week spot start option depending on matchups. The intrigue for me (and why I collect as many #2 RBs as possible) is what happens if Stevenson goes down. I think there's a fair number of people thinking it would then be Pierre Strong season because Elliott is clearly cooked and his role wouldn't expand much. I don't think that's the case. In this scenario, I think BB let's him take as much volume as he can handle and I think he's capable of showing some flashes of his former glory. Is the offense decent enough for him to ascend to a low end fantasy RB1 in this scenario? I'm not so sure about that, but would definitely feel good about fantasy RB2.
 
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