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If they keep losing they will continue to hold the top pick in that round, which helps NE. As of right now the draft order has not been decided.
How so?
Tankathon | 2025 NFL Draft Order
2025 NFL Draft order tracker updated after every game. View traded picks in all seven rounds and a live updating Mock Draft after each game.www.tankathon.com
Is Carolina going to be so bad that their 3.1 is going to get bumped into the second round?
If they keep losing they will continue to hold the top pick in that round, which helps NE. As of right now the draft order has not been decided.
How so?
Tankathon | 2025 NFL Draft Order
2025 NFL Draft order tracker updated after every game. View traded picks in all seven rounds and a live updating Mock Draft after each game.
Is Carolina going to be so bad that their 3.1 is going to get bumped into the second round?
At the beginning of the season, most people had the Panthers ending up with a Top 10 pick each round. They have played themselves into the worst record in the league so far, so to your point, no their picks can't get any better (if the season ended today). However, there are several candidates alongside them that could make a run at worst record in the league by season's end. At this point, the Panthers may continue to move players for picks and make little effort to win many more games. I am not sure a difference in 10 spots in the 3rd and 6th rounds moves the needle much, but every little bit helps.
How so?
Tankathon | 2025 NFL Draft Order
2025 NFL Draft order tracker updated after every game. View traded picks in all seven rounds and a live updating Mock Draft after each game.
Is Carolina going to be so bad that their 3.1 is going to get bumped into the second round?
What is the reasoning for this? He's been a traditional RB his whole career, is getting put into a better offense with better blocking. I don't see why he would "get killed"
A traditional RB that's played in less than 8 games the previous two seasons, and I don't think it's any coincidence his injuries started after his highest carry total of this carry - 287 in 2019. A traditional RB that's eclipsed 250 carries only once in his 5 years in his league, over 200 carries twice, over 1,000 rushing yards twice and 1,100 rushing yards only once. Although Carolina and San Francisco both run a zone blocking scheme, their RB usage and offensive philosophies are very much different. Maybe Shanahan retools his offense to fit McCaffrey's skillset in the backfield, but I doubt it. I see him using a mix of Debo and a bigger body RB along with McCaffrey to keep their philosophy the same while utilizing CMC's talents in other ways than what we saw in Carolina. This isn't a finesse offense, it's a run first, wear the defense down offense that thrives off pounding the ball and play action passing. I could be way off base, but I see McCaffrey as an amazing talent, just not a traditional RB that fits into Shanny's scheme as an every down RB.
FWIW, my tongue was firmly planted in cheek when I posted this.
There's no way you trade what they traded to get him without the belief that he's your every-down RB. I don't even have CMC and I see them using him 70% of RB touches.
I don't believe he'll be turned into a traditional slot WR that gets no carries, just so I'm clear as well. But I also don't believe he will be utilized the way we saw him used in Carolina. And finally, I don't believe he will be utilized like any other RB Shanny has had in his system. I think he will be some sort of hybrid to the likes we haven't seen. Maybe Brian Westbrook'ish? Shanahan is very creative and I have no doubt this trade will improve their offense, but how that translates to fantasy production remains to be seen. CMC has never had a head coach this good, he has never had an offensive line this stout, and he has certainly never had this many weapons around him to relieve some of the defensive focus, but that also means more competition for carries, more competition at the goal line, and more competition for touches in general. It also means less wear and tear, better quality of touches and likely more room to work. I'm excited to see how this turns out. He's looked pretty good this year in a football wasteland.
No way? Really? Expect the unexpected with Shanahan. McCaffrey is a game changer, and I believe he will be as much in SF, but he has not held up to the rigors of an every down NFL RB. You're risking a lot using him like Jeff Wilson. And if you think Shanny is going to change his run/pass ratio because he has CMC, I think you're wrong.
Good point, because when they were trying they couldn’t stop winning games.
It’s worth it to them to tank and get the Niners draft picks.
The verdict is still out on this one. Over the past 4 years, CMC averaged 23 touches a game and usually was the only weapon in town. There was D.J. Moore and not much else. The Panthers got some production from other players AFTER CMC was hurt . . . not when he was healthy.
It just guarantees that NE will get those picks, Carolina may win 1-2 the rest of the year.
How so?
Tankathon | 2025 NFL Draft Order
2025 NFL Draft order tracker updated after every game. View traded picks in all seven rounds and a live updating Mock Draft after each game.
Is Carolina going to be so bad that their 3.1 is going to get bumped into the second round?
I get what you are saying, but maybe Shanahan will adjust the offense to CMC. No reason why Jimmy G can't drop it off to CMC as a "run". Also SF will have a lot more scoring opportunities than CAR. So maybe CMC will catch less passes but will make it up with TDs.
Of course not, but being in a better offense should mean fewer 3 & outs, and thus more touches.
Whoa. I never said he was going to miss 3 weeks. I said one for sure, week 9, and likely no good to play this week if he plays. Assuming he's 100% CMC and ready to go in week 8 when they got a bye next week in his week of practice seems like the only crazy talk I hear.
They are near the bottom in RB passing game usage. Again they took an actual WR in Deebo last year and turned him into a part time RB and his passing game usage went in the toilet for a month. But sure, keep telling yourself it's not a concern for CMC's to have high end usage in the passing game.
I think your head could not be firmly planted in the sand.
See.
I’m not sure what that means. Was that English? Is a word missing?
I don't think we're far off in our takes. I see CMC getting less touches in SF than he did in CAR. When his body was breaking down on him, he was somewhere north of 85-90% of RB touches, I believe. I'm saying he'll have somewhere in the low 70%. That's a hefty decrease in touches, but it's still the lion's share.
He adjusted his offense last year to not throw the ball to Deebo and to run him more. Again not what I want with CMC. Runs are less fantasy production per touch and lead to higher wear and tear and injury chances.
2 out of 3 and not 100% full go in a third but will certianly be in every lineup in week 8 but I think it's step back vs what I would have forecast him for week 8 before the trade. This is no small thing especially for those of us who own in the contests with only 6 weeks left in the regular season. It's my primary issue with the trade for sure, the timing, more so then how he'll do once acclimated but it's a concern as well.
Again they had an actual WR playing part time RB last year and when he did his usage was meager for weeks and down on the whole. This is not about Jeff Wilson. Yes CMC will increase the RB usage in the passing game but there is no indication it's a heavy part of what they do. It's a slower tempo run heavy team and they just traded for a RB, I don't see that MO changing.
They did that in direct response to injury though.
I don't see the significance. If anything injuries required them to use Deebo in a variety of ways, instead they just sacrificed passing game usage for running.
Will be interesting to see what happens for sure. I’m hopeful you’re incorrect - not FF-related, just as a 49er fan.
Me to
As I indicated previously, CMC averaged 23 touches a game over the last 4 years in CAR. Is SF better off giving him a similar amount, a slightly lower amount, or a lot fewer touches each week to keep him fresh for the playoffs? Has Shanahan opted to give a back 20+ touches a game consistently in the past? I can't think of anyone. (I get that he probably hasn't had someone like CMC to insert, so the past may not be a great predictor here.) IMO, his number of touches will likely go down, but his quality / effectiveness may go up. What that translates to on a net basis is hard to predict and calculate until we see how it plays out and how quickly he gets acclimated into the game planning.
Since Shanahan has been a play caller (so counting his time as an OC) these are his highest main RBs per game totals
Last season Mitchell had 6 straight games he was active where he got 21+ carries and injuries are really the only thing that kept him from most likely solidly averaging 20+ touches every week.
Well one thing I'd say to try and ease your mind is Deebo's decline in targets also corresponded with a big drop in snap% (presumably because Shanahan didn't want to kill his star playmaker even though the Deebo RB experiment saved the offense last year), his implied touches were still 40% targets, it's just he was only getting 12 or so a game. Eli Mitchell was run heavy last year but the previous time the Niners used a real bell cow back, Hyde in 2017, he had 88 targets, and Hyde wasn't exactly a PPR monster throughout his career. McKinnon once had 46 as the third head of the hydra. Shanahan has thrown to his backs at times in SF, he just hasn't forced it to the Matt Breidas of the world.
I am of the opinion his value has not changed much, if at all. Personally I don't see as many receptions coming.
Define better. If you need a fantasy win this week to salvage your season, is CMC in SF going to outscore CMC if he were still in CAR? And going to a better team doesn't necessarily mean a better fantasy situation for CMC. Wilson could still vulture some work, and SF has generally spread the ball around more than CAR does. Sure, it could end up being a better situation eventually, but in the short term it could easily be worse.
In the short term as in only this week? Sure I’ll give you that.
I'll use two WR's as prime examples of this and one of them I'll go way back.
Good points but I think we also have to factor in how inefficient the Panthers offense has been. The Panthers have only run 2 plays all season inside the opponent’s 5 yard line.
www.theringer.com
They’re currently 3-3. They have to get to the playoffs first.
