These things contradict each other a bit. Getting hurt "a lot" is not great for fantasy. Now some injuries are not predictive but his overuse as a smaller back is the issue.He is the best player for fantasy bar none. Sure he gets hurt a lot
I assumed he's asking about re-draft because I do not think anyone would take CMc at #1 overall in a dynasty start up.As much time as CMC has missed in the last two years I don't see how he can go so high in startups, especially #1. It's almost like fantasy owners are ignoring this fact.#1 - but I'd still have some apprehension he'll get hurt even under the scenario where we know he won't.If you knew right now that every RB in the league was going to stay healthy all season, where would you draft CMC?
No, I don't think it's going to be particularly close in PPG. CMC's floor ever since his rookie year is higher then Taylor's ceiling.I may roll the dice at #1. Any others considering him over Taylor?
Will you feel the same in 2023 if he gets hurt 3 years in a row?No, I don't think it's going to be particularly close in PPG. CMC's floor ever since his rookie year is higher then Taylor's ceiling.I may roll the dice at #1. Any others considering him over Taylor?
CMC's had some injuries but it's not like he's had some major surgery. Crazy thing in his first 3 years he not only did not miss a single game but not sure he even appeared on so much as an injury report, his health was what I considered one of his positives. Sometimes it's just bad luck, I don't at all buy the size being an issue. Maybe that bad luck is on Taylor next year especially coming off his huge workload. Who knows on this stuff especially again when we don't have major surgeries involved? These these things change, but I feel supremely confident CMC will outscore him if both of their health situations hold up and I feel a lot better predicting performance then injury.
These things contradict each other a bit. Getting hurt "a lot" is not great for fantasy. Now some injuries are not predictive but his overuse as a smaller back is the issue.He is the best player for fantasy bar none. Sure he gets hurt a lot
What?Not really I just don't think you have watched him much over the past couple of years.
Huh?What?Not really I just don't think you have watched him much over the past couple of years.
Hubbard is still a bit of an unknown but I do see Foreman taking some goal line touches no matter what. He's a big dude.D'Onta Foreman had hundred yard rushing games vs NE, PIT, and MIA in 2021. Not elite defenses vs the run, but not bad. He's the same age as CMC and now 4 years removed from his achilles injury. He was 6 of 6 in "and one" carries. Any chance he eats into CMC's carries, especially around the GL? And could be a decent early down back if CMC misses time?
In his career, he has averaged 6.2 catches per game. That's more than Kupp, Jefferson, Chase, Adams, Lamb, Samuel, Higgins, Hill, and Evans (I just looked at the 10 highest priced WR's in the subscriber contest for this list). Also, you have his catch percentage at 64.3%, when his lifetime average is 81.3%. I'm sorry, but your numbers are way off base. 45 catches in a season for a healthy CMC is like 200 rushes for a healthy Derrick Henry - it's insane.45 rec/70 targets 380 yards and 4 TDs
2020: High ankle sprain, grade 3 (6 wks), shoulder sprain (4 wks), glute strain (4 wks)CMC's had some injuries but it's not like he's had some major surgery.
Agreed. I’m a gambler & often take a chance on guys, but geez, no way I could take CMC with one of the first few picks.As much time as CMC has missed in the last two years I don't see how he can go so high in startups, especially #1. It's almost like fantasy owners are ignoring this fact.#1 - but I'd still have some apprehension he'll get hurt even under the scenario where we know he won't.If you knew right now that every RB in the league was going to stay healthy all season, where would you draft CMC?
What is a fair price for CMC in an auction in your eyes? 60s?2020: High ankle sprain, grade 3 (6 wks), shoulder sprain (4 wks), glute strain (4 wks)CMC's had some injuries but it's not like he's had some major surgery.
2021: hamstring strain, grade 2 (5 wks), ankle sprain, grade 2 (6 wks)
The injuries themselves could be wear and tear, bad luck, or poor training. The time missed could be inflated due to Carolina being awful both seasons and no reason to rush him back. I believe I saw somewhere that the 2 ankle sprains were different ankles which is a positive.
I am hesitant to take him after being burned 2 years in a row but I am also stubborn and will probably make an honest effort to get him in our auction. Panthers should be a better team playing in a worse/more competitive division, so if he does get nicked up they may not end his season as quickly as they did the last 2 seasons. And bad luck can't strike thrice, right?
I don't want to turn this into an Assistant Coach thread, but is anyone targeting McCaffrey if they already have a top 5 RB as a keeper? (if too off topic I can edit)
If there was any confusion, I am sorry. The question only related to a redraft league. CMC should not even be in the discussion as the overall #1pick in a startup.Agreed. I’m a gambler & often take a chance on guys, but geez, no way I could take CMC with one of the first few picks.As much time as CMC has missed in the last two years I don't see how he can go so high in startups, especially #1. It's almost like fantasy owners are ignoring this fact.#1 - but I'd still have some apprehension he'll get hurt even under the scenario where we know he won't.If you knew right now that every RB in the league was going to stay healthy all season, where would you draft CMC?
I'm rolling the dice again. He checks all the boxes for meAgreed. I’m a gambler & often take a chance on guys, but geez, no way I could take CMC with one of the first few picks.As much time as CMC has missed in the last two years I don't see how he can go so high in startups, especially #1. It's almost like fantasy owners are ignoring this fact.#1 - but I'd still have some apprehension he'll get hurt even under the scenario where we know he won't.If you knew right now that every RB in the league was going to stay healthy all season, where would you draft CMC?
I said almost exactly this last year.In PPR I've got CMC #1 overall. Non-PPR #2 overall.
I'm no more worried about him getting hurt than I am about any RB. I'm really only worried about guys like Akers, J.Robinson, and the Ravens guys. That and probably factoring in a missed game or 2 for Dalvin Cook and James Conner. But, not really worried about CMC, Henry, Barkley, etc.
I'm gonna kill HSG for jinxing him!Your reaction: _____________________________
I can’t shake the feeling.I'm gonna kill HSG for jinxing him!Your reaction: _____________________________
But then he got hurt 2021 as well.I think anyone expecting CMC's 2019 usage is dreaming. He went over 400 touches in 2019. For whatever reasons, over 400 touches is usually followed by injuries. I personally, expect his usage to look a lot like Ekeler's. Still a top 5 back with #1 overall potential.
Agreed, 2019 was amazing. If you took away all his catches, receiving yards, and receiving TD's, he still would've been RB15. And if you took away all his rush yards and rushing TD's, he would've been WR12.I think anyone expecting CMC's 2019 usage is dreaming. He went over 400 touches in 2019. For whatever reasons, over 400 touches is usually followed by injuries. I personally, expect his usage to look a lot like Ekeler's. Still a top 5 back with #1 overall potential.
I think his ceiling is still a top 5 RB with #1 potential. Ekeler was able to finish RB4 with Gordon on the team and only 3 rushing TD's in 2019.But then he got hurt 2021 as well.I think anyone expecting CMC's 2019 usage is dreaming. He went over 400 touches in 2019. For whatever reasons, over 400 touches is usually followed by injuries. I personally, expect his usage to look a lot like Ekeler's. Still a top 5 back with #1 overall potential.
There’s talk of Foreman being the GL back. What does that do for CMC’s ceiling, hyooethucafly speaking?
say what?hyooethucafly speaking
Just because it went badly, doesn't mean it was wrong.I said almost exactly this last year.In PPR I've got CMC #1 overall. Non-PPR #2 overall.
I'm no more worried about him getting hurt than I am about any RB. I'm really only worried about guys like Akers, J.Robinson, and the Ravens guys. That and probably factoring in a missed game or 2 for Dalvin Cook and James Conner. But, not really worried about CMC, Henry, Barkley, etc.
I'd be very surprised if he only saw an Ekeler level workload. The Chargers have an elite QB with multiple quality pass catchers. They can afford to use other guys. The Panthers have CMC and Moore, and that's about it. Combine that with a HC on the hottest of hot seats, and CMC is going to be a candidate to finish with the most touches in the NFL (I'd bet him #2 behind only Henry) maybe he doesn't hit 400+, but I think 350+ is a fair expectation.I think anyone expecting CMC's 2019 usage is dreaming. He went over 400 touches in 2019. For whatever reasons, over 400 touches is usually followed by injuries. I personally, expect his usage to look a lot like Ekeler's. Still a top 5 back with #1 overall potential.
Autocorrect gone wild!say what?hyooethucafly speaking
Would you spend a top 2 pick on him again in 2023 after being burned twice in a row?Just because it went badly, doesn't mean it was wrong.I said almost exactly this last year.In PPR I've got CMC #1 overall. Non-PPR #2 overall.
I'm no more worried about him getting hurt than I am about any RB. I'm really only worried about guys like Akers, J.Robinson, and the Ravens guys. That and probably factoring in a missed game or 2 for Dalvin Cook and James Conner. But, not really worried about CMC, Henry, Barkley, etc.
To answer your hypothetical, I'd just say, welp, that sucks, and it would be that. It wouldn't change my thinking at all. It could just as easily be Taylor who gets hurt, just like it was just as easily Henry a year ago.
Side note, I think one of the biggest mistakes an owner can make is playing scared, especially at RB. Half the league is gonna get hurt at that position at some point. Just looking at last year's high picks: CMC, Cook, Henry, Kamara, A.Jones, Chubb, Barkley all missed 3 or more games. Even a guy like Zeke, who didn't miss games, probably should have, and was a lot less effective playing through injury.
I'd be very surprised if he only saw an Ekeler level workload. The Chargers have an elite QB with multiple quality pass catchers. They can afford to use other guys. The Panthers have CMC and Moore, and that's about it. Combine that with a HC on the hottest of hot seats, and CMC is going to be a candidate to finish with the most touches in the NFL (I'd bet him #2 behind only Henry) maybe he doesn't hit 400+, but I think 350+ is a fair expectation.I think anyone expecting CMC's 2019 usage is dreaming. He went over 400 touches in 2019. For whatever reasons, over 400 touches is usually followed by injuries. I personally, expect his usage to look a lot like Ekeler's. Still a top 5 back with #1 overall potential.
Yes, I 100% would take him in the top-2. I don't think a player burning me before is relevant.Would you spend a top 2 pick on him again in 2023 after being burned twice in a row?Just because it went badly, doesn't mean it was wrong.I said almost exactly this last year.In PPR I've got CMC #1 overall. Non-PPR #2 overall.
I'm no more worried about him getting hurt than I am about any RB. I'm really only worried about guys like Akers, J.Robinson, and the Ravens guys. That and probably factoring in a missed game or 2 for Dalvin Cook and James Conner. But, not really worried about CMC, Henry, Barkley, etc.
To answer your hypothetical, I'd just say, welp, that sucks, and it would be that. It wouldn't change my thinking at all. It could just as easily be Taylor who gets hurt, just like it was just as easily Henry a year ago.
Side note, I think one of the biggest mistakes an owner can make is playing scared, especially at RB. Half the league is gonna get hurt at that position at some point. Just looking at last year's high picks: CMC, Cook, Henry, Kamara, A.Jones, Chubb, Barkley all missed 3 or more games. Even a guy like Zeke, who didn't miss games, probably should have, and was a lot less effective playing through injury.
I'd be very surprised if he only saw an Ekeler level workload. The Chargers have an elite QB with multiple quality pass catchers. They can afford to use other guys. The Panthers have CMC and Moore, and that's about it. Combine that with a HC on the hottest of hot seats, and CMC is going to be a candidate to finish with the most touches in the NFL (I'd bet him #2 behind only Henry) maybe he doesn't hit 400+, but I think 350+ is a fair expectation.I think anyone expecting CMC's 2019 usage is dreaming. He went over 400 touches in 2019. For whatever reasons, over 400 touches is usually followed by injuries. I personally, expect his usage to look a lot like Ekeler's. Still a top 5 back with #1 overall potential.
CMC’s overall build worries me. He has a lot of miles on a small frame.
That was the narrative I poo poo’d last year when I threw caution to the wind at 1.01
As for JT, he’s been remarkably healthy, dating back to college. If I were placing a bet on who’d get hurt between CMC & JT, JT wouldn’t be my pony.
I am not playing scared. I’m playing with a reasonable fear of spending a top 2 pick on a dude who’s missed significant time the last 2 seasons. There’s a big difference.
But you wouldn't spend a top 3 pick on Derrick Henry this year, right? Why not? Age & mileage?Derrick Henry was the healthiest guy in the world until he missed over half of last season. No reason that won't be Taylor this year. RB is such a position of attrition, that if you avoid guys with injury histories you end picking from a list of like 8 guys. Hell, Ekeler, Mixon, and Conner were all top-5 RBs last year, and all of them missed significant time in 2020.
Again, it's not about being burned by the player. It's about looking at what's caused the player to burn you & determining the likelihood of recurrence.Yes, I 100% would take him in the top-2. I don't think a player burning me before is relevant.
I can’t shake the feeling.
That hypothetical was literally me last year.
I might commit seppuku if I did it again.
Funny enough, I actually do have Henry #3 overall. He's got the highest ceiling of any RB in my opinion, as the guy most likely to see 400+ touches.But you wouldn't spend a top 3 pick on Derrick Henry this year, right? Why not? Age & mileage?Derrick Henry was the healthiest guy in the world until he missed over half of last season. No reason that won't be Taylor this year. RB is such a position of attrition, that if you avoid guys with injury histories you end picking from a list of like 8 guys. Hell, Ekeler, Mixon, and Conner were all top-5 RBs last year, and all of them missed significant time in 2020.
CMC is slight of build compared to Henry. CMC had a ton of touches. CMC is now showing signs of wear with soft tissue injuries 2 years in a row. I've read a lot about RBs and workloads over the years. Some see CMC as confirmation that a huge workload can result in these types of injuries. Why would being a year older help him?
I'm just sayin - I understand taking a risk on a player, but let's not pretend it isn't a risk, or act like those not willing to take said risk are "playing scared".
You personally have zero caution about taking him. I have already passed on him in 2 leagues. I might regret that if he is indeed the RB1 or overall #1 FF player. But it's a gamble I'm not willing to take.
I don't think 350+ is realistic given his injury history.
I'd be very surprised if he only saw an Ekeler level workload. The Chargers have an elite QB with multiple quality pass catchers. They can afford to use other guys. The Panthers have CMC and Moore, and that's about it. Combine that with a HC on the hottest of hot seats, and CMC is going to be a candidate to finish with the most touches in the NFL (I'd bet him #2 behind only Henry) maybe he doesn't hit 400+, but I think 350+ is a fair expectation.I think anyone expecting CMC's 2019 usage is dreaming. He went over 400 touches in 2019. For whatever reasons, over 400 touches is usually followed by injuries. I personally, expect his usage to look a lot like Ekeler's. Still a top 5 back with #1 overall potential.
I just don't understand how anyone wouldn't consider him a risk considering the last 2 seasons and his massive workload prior to that.I understand that you think CMC is a risk, and I don't.
I think that is a little misleading, as he got hurt in the 2nd quarter in 2 games, where he was seeing the overwhelming majority of touches. 7 of 8 RB touches in the Houston game, and 10 of 11 RB touches in the Miami game before injury.I don't think 350+ is realistic given his injury history.
I'd be very surprised if he only saw an Ekeler level workload. The Chargers have an elite QB with multiple quality pass catchers. They can afford to use other guys. The Panthers have CMC and Moore, and that's about it. Combine that with a HC on the hottest of hot seats, and CMC is going to be a candidate to finish with the most touches in the NFL (I'd bet him #2 behind only Henry) maybe he doesn't hit 400+, but I think 350+ is a fair expectation.I think anyone expecting CMC's 2019 usage is dreaming. He went over 400 touches in 2019. For whatever reasons, over 400 touches is usually followed by injuries. I personally, expect his usage to look a lot like Ekeler's. Still a top 5 back with #1 overall potential.
The Charger RB's had 346 carries and a 101 receptions last year. Ekeler had 206 of those carries and 70 receptions and finished RB3 in PPG.
Panther RB's had 337 carries and 102 receptions last year. The math is rough, but CMC on got about 63% of the carries in the games he played last year. In his historic year, CMC got 93% of the carries. That usage rate is not happening again.
Maybe this is both the problem and the explanation.I think that is a little misleading, as he got hurt in the 2nd quarter in 2 games, where he was seeing the overwhelming majority of touches
I spent $60 on him in 2020, kept him for $70 in 2021, cut him loose this year because it would have cost $80 to keep. I am considering going up to $60-$65 for him in our auction next week. The top 3 RBs usually go for $60-$75 in our league because half the RB1s are kept by others so their supply is very low. In a non keeper auction I would guess he would go for $60-$70 depending on the league tendencies. I could also see his auction value dropping into the $50s because of injury concerns. He would make a sneaky opening nomination if someone was sold on him and wanted to get him at a discount.What is a fair price for CMC in an auction in your eyes? 60s?
What’s your total budget?I spent $60 on him in 2020, kept him for $70 in 2021, cut him loose this year because it would have cost $80 to keep. I am considering going up to $60-$65 for him in our auction next week. The top 3 RBs usually go for $60-$75 in our league because half the RB1s are kept by others so their supply is very low. In a non keeper auction I would guess he would go for $60-$70 depending on the league tendencies. I could also see his auction value dropping into the $50s because of injury concerns. He would make a sneaky opening nomination if someone was sold on him and wanted to get him at a discount.What is a fair price for CMC in an auction in your eyes? 60s?
200What’s your total budget?I spent $60 on him in 2020, kept him for $70 in 2021, cut him loose this year because it would have cost $80 to keep. I am considering going up to $60-$65 for him in our auction next week. The top 3 RBs usually go for $60-$75 in our league because half the RB1s are kept by others so their supply is very low. In a non keeper auction I would guess he would go for $60-$70 depending on the league tendencies. I could also see his auction value dropping into the $50s because of injury concerns. He would make a sneaky opening nomination if someone was sold on him and wanted to get him at a discount.What is a fair price for CMC in an auction in your eyes? 60s?
I may roll the dice at #1. Any others considering him over Taylor?
I tend to gravitate towards the back ends of our drafts if possible. We start 3WRs, so I often go WR-WR in those leagues.
(In 1-2 leagues we have a lottery and pick our draft spots)
I am in other leagues though, that are "randomized" just prior to the draft, so I never know quite where I am going to get until right before the draft.
If I happen to go off #1 anywhere, I am seriously debating on someone else other than Taylor. With all the recent coach commentary about workload reduction, only a goose would think he is likely to repeat as #1 RB in fantasy. (since that very rarely happens ANYWAY)
So if you aren't going with the consensus #1 RB, then who do you go with? You can pretty much pick your poison with another top 4-5 RBs, and CMC has as much upside as any, IF he is healthy that is.
There is a noticeable lack of news stories about CMC coming out of camp though, thats a bit of a concern to me.
I just may go CMC if I happen to draw #1 anywhere, but that's a longshot for me to get #1 in any event. So I can't fault you if you DO* go CMC first.
Out of curiosity, why won’t you touch Taylor?I have said several times I am not touching Jonathan Taylor, so now I get to take my choice of anyone in said league.
All fair points.I have no qualms with Taylor personally........ (or any of the top 5-6 pick your poison RBs)
However, historically RB1s virtually almost never repeat as RB1 the next year.
Plus, I'm pretty sure the Colts coaching staff has just recently expressed cutting back JT's workload, or "conserving him for a playoff run". Obviously that could be just coach talk, but all factors considered I think I'd just prefer to gamble on CMC if I'm going early.
I know there's injury issues and concerns, but the same thing can be said about Ekeler, Henry, Zeke, Cook or virtually anyone.
I figure if I'm going to gamble, I'm going to gamble on the highest upside in all of fantasy. If I hit a lottery ticket, its going to be a big one.
As for the 1 not finishing as the 1 the next year, I fondly recall taking Tomlinson a couple years running with very good results, but that was some time ago.
so if you took Taylor No. 1 and he finished 4th would you be disappointed?However, historically RB1s virtually almost never repeat as RB1 the next year.
so if you took Taylor No. 1 and he finished 4th would you be disappointed?However, historically RB1s virtually almost never repeat as RB1 the next year.