his top end speed actually looks slow here.
However he does have very good quickness, acceleration and open field vision.
his top end speed actually looks slow here.
And if he continues to improve one day he may even be as good as his doppelganger Danny Woodhead.his top end speed actually looks slow here.
However he does have very good quickness, acceleration and open field vision.
I mean the safety had 35 yards to close a 2 yard or less gap and only touched him at the goal line because he dove in desperation. Doesn’t seem slow to me.his top end speed actually looks slow here.
However he does have very good quickness, acceleration and open field vision.
Ah new to these boards, didn’t realize I was responding to a clown. Carry on then.And if he continues to improve one day he may even be as good as his doppelganger Danny Woodhead.
I suggest you look at my argument earlier in the thread where I demonstrate how CMC's numbers are uncannily Woodhead-esque. It is the perfect comparison for him and not even an unflattering one.Ah new to these boards, didn’t realize I was responding to a clown. Carry on then.
CMC 2017:I think the Woodhead comp is a damn fine compliment for a rookie back.
I do think Cmac, and I think this is an obvious take, has significantly greater upside as a between the tackles runner as he spends some time in an NFL strength program.
So while Woodhead is a nice comp now, its a low end temporary comp IMO.
Exactly what the guy above me said. You’re comparing Woodhead’s best season ever at the age of 28 to CMC’s rookie season at the age of 21. The unflattering part is your suggestion that he needs to improve to get to Woodhead’s level when CMC did that as a rookie and 7 years younger.I suggest you look at my argument earlier in the thread where I demonstrate how CMC's numbers are uncannily Woodhead-esque. It is the perfect comparison for him and not even an unflattering one.
Oh his age 30 season. 6 additional years of experience and 9 years older! Yup, definitely the same thing!CMC 2017:
435 yards rushing and 2 TDs, 80 receptions for 651 yards and 5 TDs
Danny Woodhead 2015:
336 yards rushing and 3 TDs, 80 receptions for 755 yards and 6 TDs.
It's uncanny.
As I also argue earlier in the thread, CMC's rookie year is likely to be a ceiling rather than a floor for the future, he was the beneficiary of a number of fortuitous circumstances. He may well be a better player going forward but he is unlikely to repeat those numbers.Exactly what the guy above me said. You’re comparing Woodhead’s best season ever at the age of 28 to CMC’s rookie season at the age of 21. The unflattering part is your suggestion that he needs to improve to get to Woodhead’s level when CMC did that as a rookie and 7 years younger.
I expect that you’ll be wrong but we don’t need to rehash it.As I also argue earlier in the thread, CMC's rookie year is likely to be a ceiling rather than a floor for the future, he was the beneficiary of a number of fortuitous circumstances. He may well be a better player going forward but he is unlikely to repeat those numbers.
The 20 year old just produced a season which is his ceiling? A season which by all accounts wasn’t that exceptional? That’s a remarkably insane stance, but ok.As I also argue earlier in the thread, CMC's rookie year is likely to be a ceiling rather than a floor for the future, he was the beneficiary of a number of fortuitous circumstances. He may well be a better player going forward but he is unlikely to repeat those numbers.
You’re being too nice. He is definitely wrong.I expect that you’ll be wrong but we don’t need to rehash it.
You mean free safety, second round pick, 21 year old Marcus Williams who had 57 tackles, 16 assists, 4 picks and 10 passes defensed was just barely not quite fast enough to catch McCaffrey?He took a good angle on that play but if you watch it closely, Saints defender Marcus Williams (#43) is going just as fast as he is.
I think saying it's remarkably insande is remarkably insane. A RB having his best fantasy season as a rookie is actually fairly common. If we start back 5 years ago (since we can't really determine if a guy drafted 2-3 years ago has had his best season yet) and look at the 10 year span starting then, 33% (9 out of 27) rookie RBs drafted in the 1st round had their best fantasy season as a rookie.The 20 year old just produced a season which is his ceiling? A season which by all accounts wasn’t that exceptional? That’s a remarkably insane stance, but ok.
Not that I want to get into the speed thing because I don't really care about it, but I'm wondering why tackles or INTs are relevant for how fast a guy is.You mean free safety, second round pick, 21 year old Marcus Williams who had 57 tackles, 16 assists, 4 picks and 10 passes defensed was just barely not quite fast enough to catch McCaffrey?
That is shocking.
Just pointing out he wasn't some scrub LB, like the guy CmC juked out of his jock to get so wide open.Not that I want to get into the speed thing because I don't really care about it, but I'm wondering why tackles or INTs are relevant for how fast a guy is.
Marcus Williams ran the 37th fastest 40 time of his class out of 50 guys tested, so it's not like him having 16 tackle assists means he is particularly fast.
Great analysis, though I’m not sure how relevant it is to say that 9/27 rookies drafted in the first round had their best season as a rookie. What was the bar those 9 set as rookies? Was it 1100 yards and 7 TDs as McCaffrey’s was? Significantly more? Significantly less? I’d venture to guess it’s a combination of rookies that came out guns blazing with monster rookie years (not McCaffrey) or someone like Trent Richardson, who busted himself out of the league.I think saying it's remarkably insande is remarkably insane. A RB having his best fantasy season as a rookie is actually fairly common. If we start back 5 years ago (since we can't really determine if a guy drafted 2-3 years ago has had his best season yet) and look at the 10 year span starting then, 33% (9 out of 27) rookie RBs drafted in the 1st round had their best fantasy season as a rookie.
So 33% is a fairly large number to start with for something we're claiming is "remarkably insane", and that's before we start looking at McCaffrey's circumstances.
He smashed the record for routes run by a RB in NFL history, which seems very unlikely to be repeated even before we consider the change in offensive coordinators to the guy that once had Darren Sproles at his disposal and used him as nothing more than a punt returner. Efficiency that doesn't keep up with the Theo Riddick's or Duke Johnson's of the world again dictates that his new coordinator likely won't be looking to force the ball into him the same way the old one did. And then of course the drop in Carolina's passing attack into the bottom 5 of the league while featuring McCaffrey isn't exactly going to convince ole' conventional Norv to try and copy cat what the prior OC was doing to get Carolina into position to be the 28th best passing attack in the league. Not to mention the return of Olsen, the addition of a 1st round WR, etc.
It's certainly possible (maybe even likely) that McCaffrey will get better as a player as he hangs around the league longer. But I think it is very very possible, maybe even likely, that we've seen his best fantasy season already. Outlier volume rewarded with 'meh' efficiency, a semi-flukey TD rate, and big changes in both coaching and player personnel from what he had when he got that outlier volume are all not subtle indications of some regression.
I think saying it's remarkably insande is remarkably insane. A RB having his best fantasy season as a rookie is actually fairly common. If we start back 5 years ago (since we can't really determine if a guy drafted 2-3 years ago has had his best season yet) and look at the 10 year span starting then, 33% (9 out of 27) rookie RBs drafted in the 1st round had their best fantasy season as a rookie.
So 33% is a fairly large number to start with for something we're claiming is "remarkably insane", and that's before we start looking at McCaffrey’s circumstances.
But I think it is very very possible, maybe even likely, that we've seen his best fantasy season already. Outlier volume rewarded with 'meh' efficiency, a semi-flukey TD rate, and big changes in both coaching and player personnel from what he had when he got that outlier volume are all not subtle indications of some regression.
You should try to make your points without misrepresenting the facts.before we consider the change in offensive coordinators to the guy that once had Darren Sproles at his disposal and used him as nothing more than a punt returner
Seems kind of silly to blame the drop in passing yards per game on McCaffrey in a season that saw Carolina lose Olsen for most of the year and trade Benjamin halfway through the year. And that saw them throw the 5th fewest passes in the league compared to the the 11th fewest the year before. Y/A across the two years is 18 vs 22 a drop that can surely be explained by losing those 2 guys. I very much doubt the Carolina coaches will hold that against CMC or think that he isn’t a very talented receiver out of the backfield.
Since you like to look at circumstances, have you looked at the past 6 years of NFL drafts for RBs? You look at a period from 5-15 years ago when there were 27 RBs picked in the 1st round, but in the past 6 years there have been only 8 1st round RBs. The NFL has become much more selective in burning 1st rounders on RBs, and consequently the 1st rounders taken have been RBs with a much higher success rate. It’s impossible looking at those drafts to not notice the difference, yet you just blow right by that.
There’s also such an emphasis on his receiving numbers from last year, but when someone points out that when his rushing workload increased by almost 40% over the back half of the season his ypc jumped up to 4.7 all we get hear are crickets. How many RBs with meaningful carries had that kind of rushing production in the second half?
Then you look at the effort he’s put in over the offseason and the muscle he’s added, and then extend that to his pedigree and the type of player (and more specifically the mentality) his Dad had as a player and what he was raised with and learned from throughout his life, yet that also is roundly ignored because it’s inconvenient to his detractors. I’m guessing he’s way ahead of guys like Trent Richardson and the others you’re speaking to when you put forth that you consider it likely that his rookie year will be the best of his career.
Maybe it will end up that way, but when you look at the whole picture rather than the selective few items that fit your conclusion, I find your conclusions to be much more unlikely than not. We’ll just have to wait and see I guess.
Fair. I admittedly mis-remembered Sproles' tenure there and didn't double check.You should try to make your points without distorting the facts.
San Diego drafted Sproles in 2005. Let's look at his seasons in San Diego:
Norv was the Chargers HC for 4 years when Sproles was on the team, 2007-2010. When he got there, Sproles was coming off injury and had done nothing offensively in his first 2 seasons, plus he had Tomlinson in his prime as well as Turner and Neal. As Tomlinson declined from there, Norv upped his usage of Sproles on offense.
- 2005: Sproles had 8 rushing attempts and 4 targets. Not surprising given the Chargers had Tomlinson, Turner, and Lorenzo Neal.
- 2006: Sproles missed the season due to injury. Just as well, since Tomlinson had the best season of his career.
- 2007: Sproles had 37 rushing attempts and 12 targets. The Chargers still had Tomlinson, Turner, and Neal. Tomlinson was still in his prime and had 60/475/3 on 86 targets in addition to 315/1474/15 rushing.
- 2008: Sproles had 61 rushing attempts and 34 targets. The Chargers still had Tomlinson, but Turner and Neal were gone, and they added Tolbert and Hester. Tomlinson had 52/426/1 on 77 targets in addition to 292/1110/11 rushing.
- 2009: Sproles had 93 rushing attempts and 57 targets, and he had 840 YFS and 7 TDs. Tomlinson fell off the cliff in this season, but still dominated RB opportunities with 223 rushing attempts and 30 targets. The Chargers still had Tolbert and Hester also.
- 2010: Sproles had 50 rushing attempts and 75 targets, and he had 787 YFS and 2 TDs. Tomlinson was gone, replaced by Mathews, and Tolbert
In 2009-2010 combined, with no dominant feature RB on the team, Sproles was #6 in RB targets (132), #4 in RB receptions (104), #2 in RB receiving yards (1017), and #1 in RB receiving TDs (6). This despite the fact that the Chargers were #17 in the NFL in pass attempts (1063).
He did have 96 punt returns and 195 kick returns, because he was good at those things. But your comment here was pretty much completely off base.
Does this matter though? Whether they peppered CMC with all those targets and routes because they wanted to or because they lost Benjamin/Olsen so they had to, either way it seems unlikely to be repeated.Seems kind of silly to blame the drop in passing yards per game on McCaffrey in a season that saw Carolina lose Olsen for most of the year and trade Benjamin halfway through the year. And that saw them throw the 5th fewest passes in the league compared to the the 11th fewest the year before. Y/A across the two years is 18 vs 22 a drop that can surely be explained by losing those 2 guys. I very much doubt the Carolina coaches will hold that against CMC or think that he isn’t a very talented receiver out of the backfield.
Not sure I get the theory here. Do you guys think CMC killed my dog or something? I've got nothing against him. Seems like a great guy. My only intent when discussing and researching fantasy football players is to improve my fantasy football teams and share what I find along the way. CMC is not my mortal enemy.
It is pretty clear that @FreeBaGeL made up his mind about McCaffrey a long time ago, and he is just grasping for stuff that fits his predisposed opinion.
Sure, then the conversation turns into a likely increase in efficiency as he draws less defensive attention. Which in turn could result in maintaining the same number of targets as he does more with them. A lot remains to be seen. What I’m certain about is that he isn’t going to be looked at unfavorably in the passing game by any of the Carolina coaches.Does this matter though? Whether they peppered CMC with all those targets and routes because they wanted to or because they lost Benjamin/Olsen so they had to, either way it seems unlikely to be repeated.
If they wanted to, well, it didn't exactly pay dividends, and now the guy that wanted to is gone. If they had to, well now they've brought in a 1st round WR and gotten Olsen back so they don't have to anymore.
Well, I didn't make that argument. I was countering your post that misrepresented the facts.Fair. I admittedly mis-remembered Sproles' tenure there and didn't double check.
None the less, a high of 75 targets and a moderate number of routes run for a RB that, quite frankly, was a much better receiver than CMC was last year is not exactly a compelling argument for CMC repeating 120 targets and running the most routes for a RB in NFL history again.
Yeah, see this post is much more reasonable than you saying he likely reached his ceiling as a rookie. Though even here you can't resist adding a strawman argument (bolded) that no one in this thread has claimed.Not sure I get the theory here. Do you guys think CMC killed my dog or something? I've got nothing against him. Seems like a great guy. My only intent when discussing and researching fantasy football players is to improve my fantasy football teams and share what I find along the way. CMC is not my mortal enemy.
However when someone tells me that saying a guy who just had a complete outlier amount of usage for a receiving back and now has a half dozen reasons for that usage to decrease on top of the natural regression that should already be built in is just "being selective", but says that "he had a good dad" is an important part of the whole picture, then I start to think that maybe I'm talking to someone that does have some skin in the game. Like fantasy football ownership that they can't detach themselves from, for instance.
I hope I'm wrong about CMC. He seems like a good kid and I'd much rather him succeed than a bevy of other guys in the NFL that aren't exactly of the best character. But he has a lot going against him relative to his value. Usage that seems very like to decline. A role that has never produced long term fantasy success for any player that wasn't playing for Sean Payton.
I think his best chance of being a long-term fantasy asset are if he does develop into a good inside runner a la Reggie Bush. And that's certainly possible (Bronco Billy outlined some reasons for optimism there). But I'm not betting 2nd round startup value on it and I think the likelihood that he runs around catching 80-100 passes every year for the next 7 years is a whole heck of a lot lower than people who own him seem to think.
The game has surely passed him by.Can we make the point that Norv Turner sucks?
His last three years in Minneapolis as OC, the Vikings offense ranked 27, 29, and 28 in total yardage. In 2017, after he left, they were #11.
In 2013 he was in Cleveland where they were #18.
Once he lost Tomlinson in San Diego he was done. His last year there (2012) they finished #31 in offense. (In 2013 under McCoy they were #5).
So, Turner hasn't led an offense to a finish in the top half of the league since 2011. Four of his last five stints as OC or HC they were 27th or worse. He also hasn't managed to make the playoffs since 2009, and two of the teams he left made the playoffs the year after he left. (And the other one was Cleveland.)
I don't get how this guy keeps getting jobs.
Yeah hes awful....good luck panther fansThe game has surely passed him by.
I've heard of age catching up to running backs but never an OC. Perhaps it's just circumstances.Can we make the point that Norv Turner sucks?
His last three years in Minneapolis as OC, the Vikings offense ranked 27, 29, and 28 in total yardage. In 2017, after he left, they were #11.
In 2013 he was in Cleveland where they were #18.
Once he lost Tomlinson in San Diego he was done. His last year there (2012) they finished #31 in offense. (In 2013 under McCoy they were #5).
So, Turner hasn't led an offense to a finish in the top half of the league since 2011. Four of his last five stints as OC or HC they were 27th or worse. He also hasn't managed to make the playoffs since 2009, and two of the teams he left made the playoffs the year after he left. (And the other one was Cleveland.)
I don't get how this guy keeps getting jobs.
If the Panthers didn't hire him he may not even have gotten an offer to coach for the XFL and they hired Mike Martz!??I've heard of age catching up to running backs but never an OC. Perhaps it's just circumstances.
Was Norv Turner ever a good coach? As a head coach he's had three 10+ win seasons in 15 years, and he has a losing record overall. He's won four playoff games in those 15 years, and lost in the first round at home with the best team he's had (the 2009 Chargers, who were 13-3 with Rivers, Gates, and Tomlinson, and lost to the 9-7 Jets, led by Mark Sanchez, Thomas Jones, and Jerricho Cotchery.)I've heard of age catching up to running backs but never an OC. Perhaps it's just circumstances.
You don't think that a coach's philosophy can become antiquated?I've heard of age catching up to running backs but never an OC. Perhaps it's just circumstances.
Won the same number of playoff games as they did when he was there.What did the Chargers do after he left?
Fox and Gase almost won a SB with Manning. So...You don't think that a coach's philosophy can become antiquated?
What about Jeff Fisher or John Fox? Those guys had plenty of success at one point but refused to "update" their ways of thinking and became dinosaurs.
I am trying to keep a positive attitude about this but man it is hard. Norv and his "offense" has been around a long long timeYeah hes awful....good luck panther fans
They went from 7-9 with the #31 ranked offense, to 9-7 with the #5 ranked offense. If you're actually asking.Every time he's had a good team he does pretty well. What did the Chargers do after he left?
(The Patriots also lost to those Jets)
Belicheck was a defensive coordinatorFox and Gase almost won a SB with Manning. So...
Sometimes you get offensive coaches who can make straw into gold: Belicheck, Payton, Reid. But the rest of the league is just mediocre. They do well when they have good players, not so much when they don't. Josh McDaniels is a genius with the Patriots, but he did about as well Fisher did in St Louis.
Long story short: Norv isn't any better or worse than Mike Shula.
Now he's a HC. You think he doesn't have a say in the offense?Belicheck was a defensive coordinator
I'm reading a book a Napolean right now and had no idea he was so young when he rose to power. Basically his first big campaign he was like 24-26 and was a total student of military history but with a young, fresh innovative mind. So he was running circles around all these entrenched septuagenarian Austro-Hungarian generals who were stuck in the old way of doing things and never adapted.I've heard of age catching up to running backs but never an OC. Perhaps it's just circumstances.
And he was wicked with a bo-staff.I'm reading a book a Napolean right now and had no idea he was so young when he rose to power. Basically his first big campaign he was like 24-26 and was a total student of military history but with a young, fresh innovative mind. So he was running circles around all these entrenched septuagenarian Austro-Hungarian generals who were stuck in the old way of doing things and never adapted.
The parallels to NFL coaching ranks are striking.
I highly doubt this.I'm reading a book a Napolean right now and had no idea he was so young when he rose to power. Basically his first big campaign he was like 24-26 and was a total student of military history but with a young, fresh innovative mind. So he was running circles around all these entrenched septuagenarian Austro-Hungarian generals who were stuck in the old way of doing things and never adapted.
Doubt away.I highly doubt this.