What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

RB Austin Ekeler, WAS (1 Viewer)

I get the feeling...and hear me out on this ...The Chargers are working Kelly in to find out what they have in him. Ekler may not be around next year and running him ragged helps no one. Kelly may be the play here.

Ekeler definitely won't be around next year IMO. They have a huge cap challenge to deal with for 2024 and paying Ekeler whatever it would take to keep him in 2024 and beyond likely doesn't fit what they are going to need to do. Also, Kelley is a UFA after this season just like Ekeler.

Staley and Telesco need to win as many games as possible to save their jobs. They should be doing whatever they can to maximize their chance of winning every game. If that means "running Ekeler ragged" then that is what I would expect them to do.

All that said, Kelley is a good player IMO, so I definitely expect him to have a role big enough that it will probably cap Ekeler's upside a bit. Kelley looked great in camp and preseason and in week 1.

Consider some metrics from week 1:
  • Rushing attempts:
    • Ekeler 16
    • Kelley 16
  • Rushing attempts in red zone:
    • Ekeler 5
    • Kelley 5
  • Yards per carry:
    • Ekeler 7.3
    • Kelley 5.7
  • Rushing TDs:
    • Ekeler 1
    • Kelley 1
  • Runs of 10+ yards:
    • Kelley 3
    • Ekeler 2
  • PFR rushing success rate:
    • Kelley 87.5%
    • Ekeler 75%
  • RBSDM rushing success rate (% of plays with positive EPA):
    • Kelley 75%
    • Ekeler 56%
  • RBSDM rushing first down percentage:
    • Kelley 50%
    • Ekeler 25%
  • PFF offensive grades:
    • Kelley 75.5 (#2 on team)
    • Ekeler 74.8 (#3 on team)
Ekeler had a great game. Kelley also had a great game.

One reason they combined for 32 rushing attempts is that they were facing a Fangio defense that invites running. I doubt they will have many other games, if any, with that many RB rushing attempts. In games with fewer rushing attempts, I assume the attempts will skew to Ekeler as the #1 RB, but Kelley is going to continue to get meaningful opportunities.
 
I get the feeling...and hear me out on this ...The Chargers are working Kelly in to find out what they have in him. Ekler may not be around next year and running him ragged helps no one. Kelly may be the play here.

Ekeler definitely won't be around next year IMO. They have a huge cap challenge to deal with for 2024 and paying Ekeler whatever it would take to keep him in 2024 and beyond likely doesn't fit what they are going to need to do. Also, Kelley is a UFA after this season just like Ekeler.

Staley and Telesco need to win as many games as possible to save their jobs. They should be doing whatever they can to maximize their chance of winning every game. If that means "running Ekeler ragged" then that is what I would expect them to do.

All that said, Kelley is a good player IMO, so I definitely expect him to have a role big enough that it will probably cap Ekeler's upside a bit. Kelley looked great in camp and preseason and in week 1.

Consider some metrics from week 1:
  • Rushing attempts:
    • Ekeler 16
    • Kelley 16
  • Rushing attempts in red zone:
    • Ekeler 5
    • Kelley 5
  • Yards per carry:
    • Ekeler 7.3
    • Kelley 5.7
  • Rushing TDs:
    • Ekeler 1
    • Kelley 1
  • Runs of 10+ yards:
    • Kelley 3
    • Ekeler 2
  • PFR rushing success rate:
    • Kelley 87.5%
    • Ekeler 75%
  • RBSDM rushing success rate (% of plays with positive EPA):
    • Kelley 75%
    • Ekeler 56%
  • RBSDM rushing first down percentage:
    • Kelley 50%
    • Ekeler 25%
  • PFF offensive grades:
    • Kelley 75.5 (#2 on team)
    • Ekeler 74.8 (#3 on team)
Ekeler had a great game. Kelley also had a great game.

One reason they combined for 32 rushing attempts is that they were facing a Fangio defense that invites running. I doubt they will have many other games, if any, with that many RB rushing attempts. In games with fewer rushing attempts, I assume the attempts will skew to Ekeler as the #1 RB, but Kelley is going to continue to get meaningful opportunities.
What I meant about ragged is he gets injured. That does no one any good. Sorry wasn't clear.
 
I get the feeling...and hear me out on this ...The Chargers are working Kelly in to find out what they have in him. Ekler may not be around next year and running him ragged helps no one. Kelly may be the play here.

Ekeler definitely won't be around next year IMO. They have a huge cap challenge to deal with for 2024 and paying Ekeler whatever it would take to keep him in 2024 and beyond likely doesn't fit what they are going to need to do. Also, Kelley is a UFA after this season just like Ekeler.

Staley and Telesco need to win as many games as possible to save their jobs. They should be doing whatever they can to maximize their chance of winning every game. If that means "running Ekeler ragged" then that is what I would expect them to do.

All that said, Kelley is a good player IMO, so I definitely expect him to have a role big enough that it will probably cap Ekeler's upside a bit. Kelley looked great in camp and preseason and in week 1.

Consider some metrics from week 1:
  • Rushing attempts:
    • Ekeler 16
    • Kelley 16
  • Rushing attempts in red zone:
    • Ekeler 5
    • Kelley 5
  • Yards per carry:
    • Ekeler 7.3
    • Kelley 5.7
  • Rushing TDs:
    • Ekeler 1
    • Kelley 1
  • Runs of 10+ yards:
    • Kelley 3
    • Ekeler 2
  • PFR rushing success rate:
    • Kelley 87.5%
    • Ekeler 75%
  • RBSDM rushing success rate (% of plays with positive EPA):
    • Kelley 75%
    • Ekeler 56%
  • RBSDM rushing first down percentage:
    • Kelley 50%
    • Ekeler 25%
  • PFF offensive grades:
    • Kelley 75.5 (#2 on team)
    • Ekeler 74.8 (#3 on team)
Ekeler had a great game. Kelley also had a great game.

One reason they combined for 32 rushing attempts is that they were facing a Fangio defense that invites running. I doubt they will have many other games, if any, with that many RB rushing attempts. In games with fewer rushing attempts, I assume the attempts will skew to Ekeler as the #1 RB, but Kelley is going to continue to get meaningful opportunities.
Good post.

Ekeler owners should not care THAT much about how much run Kelley gets. As long as Ekeler (when healthy) gets 14-17 carries and 4-6 receptions and the goal line love, he's great. I don't think LAC are going to run the ball 30+ times a game going forward.
 
I just love seeing both excel. I want a good running attack. The answer is the line/scheme. They were opening huge holes in the preseason and it’s continuing. I just think the Chargers have an overall better rushing attack vs previous years. They might not sling it as much as Herbert owners want. Though they’ll throw 40+ times vs TN.
 
What I meant about ragged is he gets injured. That does no one any good. Sorry wasn't clear.
Hasn’t Eke missed like, 1 game in 3 seasons?
Idk. My point still stands. He's injured now. may miss a game may not. :shrug: He was injured a few times last year but worked through. It's not like he's bullet proof. Nagging injuries and Q's on game day kind of thing. We'll see if it's nothing. I just thought working in Kelly while disgruntled Ekler watches might be what they are after. Don't forget. He did't get what he wants::moneybag:
 
What I meant about ragged is he gets injured. That does no one any good. Sorry wasn't clear.
Hasn’t Eke missed like, 1 game in 3 seasons?
Idk. My point still stands. He's injured now. may miss a game may not. :shrug: He was injured a few times last year but worked through. It's not like he's bullet proof. Nagging injuries and Q's on game day kind of thing. We'll see if it's nothing. I just thought working in Kelly while disgruntled Ekler watches might be what they are after. Don't forget. He did't get what he wants::moneybag:
I think it's a given that he'll be on another team next year after they didn't budge in the offseason.

IMO the split is more to do with the OC than anything psychological. Kellen Moore ran Zeke & Pollard in a split. I expected the RB2 in LAC to have stand-alone value this year.
 
What I meant about ragged is he gets injured. That does no one any good. Sorry wasn't clear.
Hasn’t Eke missed like, 1 game in 3 seasons?
Idk. My point still stands. He's injured now. may miss a game may not. :shrug: He was injured a few times last year but worked through. It's not like he's bullet proof. Nagging injuries and Q's on game day kind of thing. We'll see if it's nothing. I just thought working in Kelly while disgruntled Ekler watches might be what they are after. Don't forget. He did't get what he wants::moneybag:
I think it's a given that he'll be on another team next year after they didn't budge in the offseason.

IMO the split is more to do with the OC than anything psychological. Kellen Moore ran Zeke & Pollard in a split. I expected the RB2 in LAC to have stand-alone value this year.
I think that was much more due to performance than OC philosophy- it wasn't much of a split until last year.
 
What I meant about ragged is he gets injured. That does no one any good. Sorry wasn't clear.
Hasn’t Eke missed like, 1 game in 3 seasons?
Exactly why I was so happy to take him this year. Needless to say these first week rumors of out, boot, H.A.S. really have me annoyed and thinking I should have stuck w a WR.
I don’t listen to rumors.

The dude himself said he was sore but fine. Eke plays through all kinds of stuff.

He might miss this week, but right now anything you read is BS other than “missed practice” and wait for Friday’s report.
 
What I meant about ragged is he gets injured. That does no one any good. Sorry wasn't clear.
Hasn’t Eke missed like, 1 game in 3 seasons?
Exactly why I was so happy to take him this year. Needless to say these first week rumors of out, boot, H.A.S. really have me annoyed and thinking I should have stuck w a WR.
I think at worst he misses a week. I wouldn't worry too much about it.
 
If you're an Ekeler owner who also owns Kelley, I almost think it will be better fantasy-wise if he DOESN'T play.
I don't know. I think its dangerous to assume Kelley has the same efficiency if he's starting and facing a much tougher run D than Miami. Ekeler is a FAR better RB than Kelley and could easily do more splitting with Kelley than Kelley can with the full load, if he'd even get one. Hell, if Ekeler doesn't play, how do we know Spiller doesn't get a dozen touches?
 
If you're an Ekeler owner who also owns Kelley, I almost think it will be better fantasy-wise if he DOESN'T play.
I don't know. I think its dangerous to assume Kelley has the same efficiency if he's starting and facing a much tougher run D than Miami. Ekeler is a FAR better RB than Kelley and could easily do more splitting with Kelley than Kelley can with the full load, if he'd even get one. Hell, if Ekeler doesn't play, how do we know Spiller doesn't get a dozen touches?
True I guess that's possible. My worry is that they likely won't give him a massive workload, so it will probably be a split anyways. And if the game gets out of hand for EITHER team, I'd be shocked if he was still in there.
 
If you're an Ekeler owner who also owns Kelley, I almost think it will be better fantasy-wise if he DOESN'T play.
I don't know. I think its dangerous to assume Kelley has the same efficiency if he's starting and facing a much tougher run D than Miami. Ekeler is a FAR better RB than Kelley and could easily do more splitting with Kelley than Kelley can with the full load, if he'd even get one. Hell, if Ekeler doesn't play, how do we know Spiller doesn't get a dozen touches?
True I guess that's possible. My worry is that they likely won't give him a massive workload, so it will probably be a split anyways. And if the game gets out of hand for EITHER team, I'd be shocked if he was still in there.
I think just based on Tennessee being the opponent, the Chargers run a lot less. You aren't exactly trying to keep that offense off the field. I could see this being a game where if Ekeler plays, he's more valuable as a pass catcher than a rusher.
 
If you're an Ekeler owner who also owns Kelley, I almost think it will be better fantasy-wise if he DOESN'T play.
I don't know. I think its dangerous to assume Kelley has the same efficiency if he's starting and facing a much tougher run D than Miami. Ekeler is a FAR better RB than Kelley and could easily do more splitting with Kelley than Kelley can with the full load, if he'd even get one. Hell, if Ekeler doesn't play, how do we know Spiller doesn't get a dozen touches?
True I guess that's possible. My worry is that they likely won't give him a massive workload, so it will probably be a split anyways. And if the game gets out of hand for EITHER team, I'd be shocked if he was still in there.
I think just based on Tennessee being the opponent, the Chargers run a lot less. You aren't exactly trying to keep that offense off the field. I could see this being a game where if Ekeler plays, he's more valuable as a pass catcher than a rusher.
And if LA is up 20 at the half, do you think he plays half two?
 
If you're an Ekeler owner who also owns Kelley, I almost think it will be better fantasy-wise if he DOESN'T play.
I don't know. I think its dangerous to assume Kelley has the same efficiency if he's starting and facing a much tougher run D than Miami. Ekeler is a FAR better RB than Kelley and could easily do more splitting with Kelley than Kelley can with the full load, if he'd even get one. Hell, if Ekeler doesn't play, how do we know Spiller doesn't get a dozen touches?
True I guess that's possible. My worry is that they likely won't give him a massive workload, so it will probably be a split anyways. And if the game gets out of hand for EITHER team, I'd be shocked if he was still in there.
I think just based on Tennessee being the opponent, the Chargers run a lot less. You aren't exactly trying to keep that offense off the field. I could see this being a game where if Ekeler plays, he's more valuable as a pass catcher than a rusher.
And if LA is up 20 at the half, do you think he plays half two?
Maybe not, but I don't feel comfortable projecting the Chargers to be up 20 at halftime.

My biggest takeaway from the Miami/LA game last week, is I think both teams have bad defenses and good offenses, so it was perfect shootout conditions. The Titans are coming off a game where they gave up only 16 points despite Tannehill throwing 3 INTs, 2 inside his own 35.

If Ekeler is active, I'm treating him as an RB1. If Ekeler is out, I'm treating Kelley as an RB2.
 
I get the feeling...and hear me out on this ...The Chargers are working Kelly in to find out what they have in him. Ekler may not be around next year and running him ragged helps no one. Kelly may be the play here.

Ekeler definitely won't be around next year IMO. They have a huge cap challenge to deal with for 2024 and paying Ekeler whatever it would take to keep him in 2024 and beyond likely doesn't fit what they are going to need to do. Also, Kelley is a UFA after this season just like Ekeler.

Staley and Telesco need to win as many games as possible to save their jobs. They should be doing whatever they can to maximize their chance of winning every game. If that means "running Ekeler ragged" then that is what I would expect them to do.

All that said, Kelley is a good player IMO, so I definitely expect him to have a role big enough that it will probably cap Ekeler's upside a bit. Kelley looked great in camp and preseason and in week 1.

Consider some metrics from week 1:
  • Rushing attempts:
    • Ekeler 16
    • Kelley 16
  • Rushing attempts in red zone:
    • Ekeler 5
    • Kelley 5
  • Yards per carry:
    • Ekeler 7.3
    • Kelley 5.7
  • Rushing TDs:
    • Ekeler 1
    • Kelley 1
  • Runs of 10+ yards:
    • Kelley 3
    • Ekeler 2
  • PFR rushing success rate:
    • Kelley 87.5%
    • Ekeler 75%
  • RBSDM rushing success rate (% of plays with positive EPA):
    • Kelley 75%
    • Ekeler 56%
  • RBSDM rushing first down percentage:
    • Kelley 50%
    • Ekeler 25%
  • PFF offensive grades:
    • Kelley 75.5 (#2 on team)
    • Ekeler 74.8 (#3 on team)
Ekeler had a great game. Kelley also had a great game.

One reason they combined for 32 rushing attempts is that they were facing a Fangio defense that invites running. I doubt they will have many other games, if any, with that many RB rushing attempts. In games with fewer rushing attempts, I assume the attempts will skew to Ekeler as the #1 RB, but Kelley is going to continue to get meaningful opportunities.
Good post.

Ekeler owners should not care THAT much about how much run Kelley gets. As long as Ekeler (when healthy) gets 14-17 carries and 4-6 receptions and the goal line love, he's great. I don't think LAC are going to run the ball 30+ times a game going forward.
There’s no way he’s getting 14-17 carries. The last 2 years when he’s had no backfield competition he’s only averaged exactly 12 carries per game. I owned him the last 2 years. What’s key for him is maintaining GL duties. Last year early on Sony took some of that and it was extremely frustrating. That changed around week 4 when they finally realized he sucked. Anyway, Ekeler should be the GL back since he’s so effective at it. But now with Kellen Moore, who in Dallas liked to rotate backs and have Zeke waltz in for 1 yard scores, who knows. Some of that could have been the Jerry Jones effect too. Hard to say. He’s going to get his receptions, no doubt. Moore wants to run more and that’s where the carries for Kelley comes in. So I think you have to hope for the same 12 carries AND GL duties. If some of that goes away, it’ll be hard for him to live up to his draft cost.
 
This interview was yesterday. Seems like he thinks he'll play based on what he said right at the open.

"All you fantasy owners out there, just listen to this. If you have me on your team, you're gonna be okay."

 
This interview was yesterday. Seems like he thinks he'll play based on what he said right at the open.

"All you fantasy owners out there, just listen to this. If you have me on your team, you're gonna be okay."

I don't think this means anything about this week, the question referenced the rest of the season.
 
He kinda looked like he was walking in a boot lol…...🤷🏻
That wasn't a boot, but a girl trying to walk with him :)
She was Canadian. She was just saying "what's this all aboot?"
 
He kinda looked like he was walking in a boot lol…...🤷🏻
That wasn't a boot, but a girl trying to walk with him :)
She was Canadian. She was just saying "what's this all aboot?"
No, I don't think she could talk at the time while trying to keep step with Ekeler ;)
 
I get the feeling...and hear me out on this ...The Chargers are working Kelly in to find out what they have in him. Ekler may not be around next year and running him ragged helps no one. Kelly may be the play here.

Ekeler definitely won't be around next year IMO. They have a huge cap challenge to deal with for 2024 and paying Ekeler whatever it would take to keep him in 2024 and beyond likely doesn't fit what they are going to need to do. Also, Kelley is a UFA after this season just like Ekeler.

Staley and Telesco need to win as many games as possible to save their jobs. They should be doing whatever they can to maximize their chance of winning every game. If that means "running Ekeler ragged" then that is what I would expect them to do.

All that said, Kelley is a good player IMO, so I definitely expect him to have a role big enough that it will probably cap Ekeler's upside a bit. Kelley looked great in camp and preseason and in week 1.

Consider some metrics from week 1:
  • Rushing attempts:
    • Ekeler 16
    • Kelley 16
  • Rushing attempts in red zone:
    • Ekeler 5
    • Kelley 5
  • Yards per carry:
    • Ekeler 7.3
    • Kelley 5.7
  • Rushing TDs:
    • Ekeler 1
    • Kelley 1
  • Runs of 10+ yards:
    • Kelley 3
    • Ekeler 2
  • PFR rushing success rate:
    • Kelley 87.5%
    • Ekeler 75%
  • RBSDM rushing success rate (% of plays with positive EPA):
    • Kelley 75%
    • Ekeler 56%
  • RBSDM rushing first down percentage:
    • Kelley 50%
    • Ekeler 25%
  • PFF offensive grades:
    • Kelley 75.5 (#2 on team)
    • Ekeler 74.8 (#3 on team)
Ekeler had a great game. Kelley also had a great game.

One reason they combined for 32 rushing attempts is that they were facing a Fangio defense that invites running. I doubt they will have many other games, if any, with that many RB rushing attempts. In games with fewer rushing attempts, I assume the attempts will skew to Ekeler as the #1 RB, but Kelley is going to continue to get meaningful opportunities.
Good post.

Ekeler owners should not care THAT much about how much run Kelley gets. As long as Ekeler (when healthy) gets 14-17 carries and 4-6 receptions and the goal line love, he's great. I don't think LAC are going to run the ball 30+ times a game going forward.
There’s no way he’s getting 14-17 carries. The last 2 years when he’s had no backfield competition he’s only averaged exactly 12 carries per game. I owned him the last 2 years. What’s key for him is maintaining GL duties. Last year early on Sony took some of that and it was extremely frustrating. That changed around week 4 when they finally realized he sucked. Anyway, Ekeler should be the GL back since he’s so effective at it. But now with Kellen Moore, who in Dallas liked to rotate backs and have Zeke waltz in for 1 yard scores, who knows. Some of that could have been the Jerry Jones effect too. Hard to say. He’s going to get his receptions, no doubt. Moore wants to run more and that’s where the carries for Kelley comes in. So I think you have to hope for the same 12 carries AND GL duties. If some of that goes away, it’ll be hard for him to live up to his draft cost.
I am expecting Ekeler to have more carries and less receptions from last year. Also, from the 1st game it seems that LAC wants to run the ball more than last year. Different OC, different scheme. But I agree he needs to keep the goalline duty to return 1st round value.
 
lol the detectives in this thread investigating a tweet like it's the Zapruder film.

Edit: I'm saying this out of love. One of the reasons why this site is the best.
If you go back to the video, at :08 you’ll notice the camera shake vigorously at precisely the moment he passes that large tree. This would seem to indicate that he stepped on a small dirt patch (commonly found in California in September) and that the “shake” is a result of the boot not being properly strapped on.
 
from the 1st game it seems that LAC wants to run the ball more than last year

I wouldn't read too much into the first game. It was against a Fangio defense, which is designed to stop downfield passing and typically invites teams to run the ball. I seriously doubt the Chargers will have another game with 40 rushing attempts this season.

I am expecting Ekeler to have more carries and less receptions from last year

Agree on fewer receptions, but I also expect fewer carries. Kelley is going to have a bigger share of the rushing workload than any RB the Chargers have had with Ekeler since Gordon.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top