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QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (2 Viewers)

jm192 said:
BINGBING said:
If he is a two time MVP is he a lock for the HOF? He's still really young, so it's too early to hold playoff results against him. Many HOF QB's had less playoff wins than him at his age.
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Feels like they have a great chance to win the superbowl.

If they do, he's a lock at that point, IMO. I'm assuming he doesn't up and retire. But even then, 2 MVP's and a Super Bowl ring seems like an ideal HOF resume.
Click to expand...
Its kinda funny looking back in this thread and seeing how many people were saying the Ravens should trade Lamar, because he's not a franchise QB, can't win big games, can't stay healthy, and has already played his best ball.
 
travdogg said:
jm192 said:
BINGBING said:
If he is a two time MVP is he a lock for the HOF? He's still really young, so it's too early to hold playoff results against him. Many HOF QB's had less playoff wins than him at his age.
Click to expand...
Feels like they have a great chance to win the superbowl.

If they do, he's a lock at that point, IMO. I'm assuming he doesn't up and retire. But even then, 2 MVP's and a Super Bowl ring seems like an ideal HOF resume.
Click to expand...
Its kinda funny looking back in this thread and seeing how many people were saying the Ravens should trade Lamar, because he's not a franchise QB, can't win big games, can't stay healthy, and has already played his best ball.
Click to expand...
It was maddening. I became pro Lamar just from the haters. Ha ha
 
travdogg said:
jm192 said:
BINGBING said:
If he is a two time MVP is he a lock for the HOF? He's still really young, so it's too early to hold playoff results against him. Many HOF QB's had less playoff wins than him at his age.
Click to expand...
Feels like they have a great chance to win the superbowl.

If they do, he's a lock at that point, IMO. I'm assuming he doesn't up and retire. But even then, 2 MVP's and a Super Bowl ring seems like an ideal HOF resume.
Click to expand...
Its kinda funny looking back in this thread and seeing how many people were saying the Ravens should trade Lamar, because he's not a franchise QB, can't win big games, can't stay healthy, and has already played his best ball.
Click to expand...
People (myself included) are still saying that, at least in regards to the can't win big game thing. I'm open to being proven wrong though if he can win a championship.

Players this good, at this level...i.e. winning multiple MVPs (likely this year), need to have a championship to their name. Not to make HoF, but to be thought of in the all-time category.
 
travdogg said:
jm192 said:
BINGBING said:
If he is a two time MVP is he a lock for the HOF? He's still really young, so it's too early to hold playoff results against him. Many HOF QB's had less playoff wins than him at his age.
Click to expand...
Feels like they have a great chance to win the superbowl.

If they do, he's a lock at that point, IMO. I'm assuming he doesn't up and retire. But even then, 2 MVP's and a Super Bowl ring seems like an ideal HOF resume.
Click to expand...
Its kinda funny looking back in this thread and seeing how many people were saying the Ravens should trade Lamar, because he's not a franchise QB, can't win big games, can't stay healthy, and has already played his best ball.
Click to expand...
can we revisit this when they have the bye week, and host a team in the Div round, and lose? I like what I've seen this year from Baltimore, but didn't he lead them to something like 14-2 or 15-1 a few years ago, won the MVP, got the bye, and lost the first playoff game? have they been back to the playoffs since? Lamar Jackson has a passer rating of 68.3 with 900 yards, 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 4 games in the playoffs in his career. can we put away the anointing oils already? I mean, he's good and all, and he looks like a pocket passer more and more which is a good thing, but unless and until he improves those post season stats, he's just a chump plain and simple.
now, go compare Jackson's postseason stats to those of Eli Manning. 2 SB wins,2 SB MVPs. many road playoff wins, great postseason passer rating, comp %, etc.
give me Eli every day that ends in 'y' and twice on sundays.
Jackson is now the Missouri state of the NFL - SHOW ME!!!

he's just another stat compiler QB who hasn't won a postseason game, nothing more than a glorified justin herbert. yawn.
I hope I'm wrong and he kills it in post season, but I'm suspicious of baltimore. truth be told I'm not a believer in the niners, . they're pretenders. Baltimore looks so damn good, such a real contender for the title. If they get there they will be a force. but they have to get there.. you would NOT want to see buffalo come a-traipsing in to Baltimore div round of playoffs. I'm not sure they want to play Houston or the Colts if they make it there. I do not think the Ravens want anything to do with the Brownies in postseason, and it may very well happen.
SF has shanahan to spell doom for them, baltimore has jackson.
win a playoff game already, lamar, or face the music as a chump

 
The problem with evaluating Lamar is people often ignore his rushing totals. He’s 1-3 in the postseason with 900 passing yards . . . and 367 rushing yards. That’s 317 yards per game, which is a pretty high total. They’ve been able to move the ball, they just haven’t been able to put up points. Jackson hasn’t been great, but he hasn’t been terrible with his rushing totals added in.
 
Anarchy99 said:
The problem with evaluating Lamar is people often ignore his rushing totals. He’s 1-3 in the postseason with 900 passing yards . . . and 367 rushing yards. That’s 317 yards per game, which is a pretty high total. They’ve been able to move the ball, they just haven’t been able to put up points. Jackson hasn’t been great, but he hasn’t been terrible with his rushing totals added in.
Click to expand...
He also started one of those playoff games as a rookie and was the youngest qb in playoff history and still completely over his head as a passer. And another was in high winds in Buffalo where Josh Allen was 23/37 for 206 yards as the Bills offense also struggled with less than 250 total yards and scored 10 points. I believe Tucker and Bass each missed 2 fgs the wind was so bad. That’s the problem with small samples.
 
Those numbers are skewed, though. Thanks to a ton of garbage time yards (and yet almost no scores), they ended up with over 500 yards of total offense in the 2019 loss to the Titans in the 2nd round. Empty calories. He was not good in that game at all.
 
ShamrockPride said:
travdogg said:
jm192 said:
BINGBING said:
If he is a two time MVP is he a lock for the HOF? He's still really young, so it's too early to hold playoff results against him. Many HOF QB's had less playoff wins than him at his age.
Click to expand...
Feels like they have a great chance to win the superbowl.

If they do, he's a lock at that point, IMO. I'm assuming he doesn't up and retire. But even then, 2 MVP's and a Super Bowl ring seems like an ideal HOF resume.
Click to expand...
Its kinda funny looking back in this thread and seeing how many people were saying the Ravens should trade Lamar, because he's not a franchise QB, can't win big games, can't stay healthy, and has already played his best ball.
Click to expand...
People (myself included) are still saying that, at least in regards to the can't win big game thing. I'm open to being proven wrong though if he can win a championship.

Players this good, at this level...i.e. winning multiple MVPs (likely this year), need to have a championship to their name. Not to make HoF, but to be thought of in the all-time category.
Click to expand...
But that's sort of the thing. If the Ravens say, lose in the AFC Championship, it doesn't mean Lamar isn't a franchise QB, who they were absolutely right to pay huge money to.

I sometimes feel like there's a weird Ricky Bobby mindset where only winning Super Bowls matters, and while obviously it's the goal, it's not the only measure of success, unless the argument is everyone in 2022 sucked except KC.

I see it in a lot of threads, and its jarringly strange. Like in the Eagles thread with some people wanting Sirianni fired. Or the Tua thread of anyone could do this with Hill/Waddle/McDaniel. Just feels like a lot of very good play, and coaching, is taken for granted is all. I don't know if I'd give Lamar MVP (he's 1 of 3 guys I can see the case for) but I think he's clearly a great player regardless of anything else that happens this season.
 
travdogg said:
I sometimes feel like there's a weird Ricky Bobby mindset where only winning Super Bowls matters, and while obviously it's the goal, it's not the only measure of success, unless the argument is everyone in 2022 sucked except KC.
Click to expand...
Well a week and more ago there was a "stats only matter" mindset. The stated reasons shift over time, but a decent chunk of the "Lamar doesn't deserve the MVP" mindset sticks around.
 
Anarchy99 said:
The_Man said:
Maybe Top 30 all-time in both passing and rushing yards.
Click to expand...
I don't really have much of an opinion on this but figured I would look into how far away Lamar is from these milestones.

He currently has amassed 15,887 passing yards (which ranks 151st all time). The #30 QB is currently at 36,638. However, there are several current QBs ahead of Jackson that will likely push the bar higher for the 30th spot (Tannehill, Goff, Prescott, Mahomes, and Allen as examples). Let's project the Top 30 by then will be 40,000 yards. That would mean Lamar would need 24,113 additional passing yards. At his current pace, Jackson would need to play 15 total seasons to hit that number . . . which seems way in the future given that he's only played 6 seasons so far.

Rushing wise, he has 5,258 rushing yard (which ranks 137th). The #30 player in rushing yards sits at 10,273. But Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliot are close to there (and some other current backs could still make it). Let's say 11,000 will be the new Top 30 cut line in the future. Jackson would need to double his currently total and a little extra to get there. I'm not sure at what age he will start rushing less frequently, but I don't think 150+ carries a year will extend his career any.

I guess being a dual Top 30 threat is a possibility, but w are many years away from that being something to consider a lot more seriously. He has a lot of ground to cover to get there (although it is in the realm of possibility).
Click to expand...
He passed for 3,678 yards this year - in 16 games, since he will almost certainly sit out this week. I think this kind of increased yardage is more what we can expect in the coming years from Lamar. If he maintains that pace, it will be another 6.5 years for him to reach 40,000 yards - which would put him at age 33,

Impossible to know now if he reaches either 40,000 passing or 10,000 rushing yards, but the fact we're seriously considering if a single guy could end up with more passing yards than Joe Montana and more rushing yards than Eddie George is indicative of the extraordinary nature of his talent.
 
The_Man said:
Anarchy99 said:
The_Man said:
Maybe Top 30 all-time in both passing and rushing yards.
Click to expand...
I don't really have much of an opinion on this but figured I would look into how far away Lamar is from these milestones.

He currently has amassed 15,887 passing yards (which ranks 151st all time). The #30 QB is currently at 36,638. However, there are several current QBs ahead of Jackson that will likely push the bar higher for the 30th spot (Tannehill, Goff, Prescott, Mahomes, and Allen as examples). Let's project the Top 30 by then will be 40,000 yards. That would mean Lamar would need 24,113 additional passing yards. At his current pace, Jackson would need to play 15 total seasons to hit that number . . . which seems way in the future given that he's only played 6 seasons so far.

Rushing wise, he has 5,258 rushing yard (which ranks 137th). The #30 player in rushing yards sits at 10,273. But Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliot are close to there (and some other current backs could still make it). Let's say 11,000 will be the new Top 30 cut line in the future. Jackson would need to double his currently total and a little extra to get there. I'm not sure at what age he will start rushing less frequently, but I don't think 150+ carries a year will extend his career any.

I guess being a dual Top 30 threat is a possibility, but w are many years away from that being something to consider a lot more seriously. He has a lot of ground to cover to get there (although it is in the realm of possibility).
Click to expand...
He passed for 3,678 yards this year - in 16 games, since he will almost certainly sit out this week. I think this kind of increased yardage is more what we can expect in the coming years from Lamar. If he maintains that pace, it will be another 6.5 years for him to reach 40,000 yards - which would put him at age 33,

Impossible to know now if he reaches either 40,000 passing or 10,000 rushing yards, but the fact we're seriously considering if a single guy could end up with more passing yards than Joe Montana and more rushing yards than Eddie George is indicative of the extraordinary nature of his talent.
Click to expand...
Who knows what will happen. Even though science has helped extend players’ careers, I think we will hit a point where guys have made so much money that they won’t be motivated to play as long. How many hundreds of millions of dollars would they need?

As for Lamar, yes, he passed for 3600+ yards this year. That’s only the second time he’s had 3,000 in a season. It’s also only the second time he’s played in 16 games. Like every QB, he’s one hit away from missing the rest of the season, and since he runs so often, he’s also more susceptible to losing rushing production with a lower body injury. We are still several years away from this being a more thorough discussion.
 
Its kinda funny looking back in this thread and seeing how many people were saying the Ravens should trade Lamar, because he's not a franchise QB, can't win big games, can't stay healthy, and has already played his best ball.
Click to expand...

That's kinda revisionist history as it ignores the financials part of that conversation. It's one thing to have an abstract discussion here on FBG about whether LJax is elite or not, and completely different when it's going to require a top of the market contract to re-sign the guy.

It's certainly a valid question to ask "is the guy is a franchise QB or not, and are his best performance days over" when then penalty for being wrong is having an albatross contract like Jackson's (5-years/$260mm including $185 mm of overall guarantees, $135mm of which is fully guaranteed) crippling your team for the next few years.

The same questions got asked by Baltimore after Flacco won the Super Bowl and they needed to pay him. That didn't turn out super well for Baltimore. The same could have happened with LJax.
 
jumper said:
That's kinda revisionist history as it ignores the financials part of that conversation. It's one thing to have an abstract discussion here on FBG about whether LJax is elite or not, and completely different when it's going to require a top of the market contract to re-sign the guy.
Click to expand...
And the grand plans to trade Lamar by his detractors ignored the real life risks of trading him.

DeCosta and Harbaugh enjoy job security, as do most front offices with a winning QB. Trading away a 26 year old MVP is a deal made by internet people, with no skin in the game. Tell those same people they need to bet their job on their favorite QB in the next draft, and see how brave they are. Because that's what DeCosta/Harbaugh would be doing.
 
massraider said:
jumper said:
That's kinda revisionist history as it ignores the financials part of that conversation. It's one thing to have an abstract discussion here on FBG about whether LJax is elite or not, and completely different when it's going to require a top of the market contract to re-sign the guy.
Click to expand...
And the grand plans to trade Lamar by his detractors ignored the real life risks of trading him.

DeCosta and Harbaugh enjoy job security, as do most front offices with a winning QB. Trading away a 26 year old MVP is a deal made by internet people, with no skin in the game. Tell those same people they need to bet their job on their favorite QB in the next draft, and see how brave they are. Because that's what DeCosta/Harbaugh would be doing.
Click to expand...

Yeah that's the point, there's risks no matter what decision you make. If you re-sign him then he might not worth his contract or the opportunity costs of drafting someone else. If you trade him, whatever QB you get to replace him might fail, whether via draft or free agent. This stuff is so ridiculously complicated to get correct, it's almost easier to do it by accident than because you made a correct decision - for example A, see Niners spending big draft capital to get Trey Lance, then having him fail and their Mr. Irrelevant draft pick being their new franchise guy.

Just like with fantasy football, there are almost always cognitive bias associated with making a choice like this. A very high sense of loss aversion with giving out a top-of-market contract is in play, as well as appeal to novelty ("we all know who LJax is, at least with new QB you he might have a higher ceiling"), hyperbolic discounting ("our Super Bowl window is open now, we need to get a QB who will get us over the hump before it closes"), and illusory patterns ("Rams replaced their QB with Stafford and won the Super Bowl, Tampa with Brady and won the SB, Broncos with Manning and won - therefore the key is replace your QB and you win the Super Bowl")
 
Next Gen Stats
Lamar Jackson faced a career-high 75.0% blitz rate, completing 13 of 18 passes against the blitz for 120 yards & 2 TD.

Jackson got rid of the ball more than a second quicker vs the blitz in the 2nd half (2.25 seconds) compared to the first half (3.51).

#HOUvsBAL | #RavensFlock
Click to expand...

Lamar Jackson recorded a 65.6% success rate on his dropbacks in the Ravens' Divisional Round victory, the 4th-highest mark of his career.

Jackson completed all 9 of his quick passes for 77 yards, averaging 8.6 YPA.

#HOUvsBAL | #RavensFlock
Click to expand...
 
Next Gen Stats
Lamar Jackson runs untouched into the end zone for his second TD on a designed run of the game, becoming the first quarterback with multiple touchdowns on designed runs in a playoff game in the NGS era.

#HOUvsBAL | #RavensFlock
Click to expand...

Lamar Jackson & Isaiah Likely (15-yd TD) 📽️

Since 2018 (including playoffs), Lamar Jackson has thrown 14 TDs on designed rollouts without play action, fewer than only Patrick Mahomes (23). No other quarterback has more than six.

#HOUvsBAL | #RavensFlock
Click to expand...
 
This one was one him. He had chances. He didn't make plays. His defense tightened up and kept them in this game. He didn't make plays. I definitely agree the coaching game plan was absolutely horrible, but champions make plays. He didn't. Lamar is 27 and in his prime. Can't believe he only had 8 rushing attempts. Smh
 
FarFromHome said:
This one was one him. He had chances. He didn't make plays. His defense tightened up and kept them in this game. He didn't make plays. I definitely agree the coaching game plan was absolutely horrible, but champions make plays. He didn't. Lamar is 27 and in his prime. Can't believe he only had 8 rushing attempts. Smh
Click to expand...

I think the bigger issue is the entire rest of the team only had 8 rushing attempts as well. They made themselves way too one dimensional.
 
billmatic said:
FarFromHome said:
This one was one him. He had chances. He didn't make plays. His defense tightened up and kept them in this game. He didn't make plays. I definitely agree the coaching game plan was absolutely horrible, but champions make plays. He didn't. Lamar is 27 and in his prime. Can't believe he only had 8 rushing attempts. Smh
Click to expand...

I think the bigger issue is the entire rest of the team only had 8 rushing attempts as well. They made themselves way too one dimensional.
Click to expand...
Yep. I just think that Gus and Hill were exposed for what they are. Average NFL rbs. Lamar is a top ten RB basically. Either way. You run the ball. Lamar had 37 passing attempts. Smh
 
No doubt, he'll win a ring eventually. But, he should be playing for a ring in two weeks if the Chiefs would've paid the refs off! There were calls in that game that should have gone against the Chiefs that weren't called, and that's why he'll just settle for being regular-season MVP and not win it all this year.
 
He's the same guy he's always been...a dynamic weapon but a so-so qb - now at $50 million per year

His team was better this year which helped it along
 
It's not fair, but big moments matter.

The ugly interception into triple coverage was remarkable.

It also hurts to have Mahomes on the other side. Who seems to be the opposite and consistently deliver in the key moments.
 
With that said, he's obviously got a bright future.

I think the people who write Prescott off after a great season and a bad game are wrong.

I think anyone burying Jackson after this game is wrong. But clearly a bad game yesterday in a huge spot.
 
Maybe it doesn’t matter with the salary cap going up every year, but his cap hit balloons these next 3 years. The QBs he’s competing against in the AFC aren’t going anywhere.

This was likely his best shot with a dominant defense that held Mahomes to 17 points.
 
Grahamburn said:
Maybe it doesn’t matter with the salary cap going up every year, but his cap hit balloons these next 3 years. The QBs he’s competing against in the AFC aren’t going anywhere.

This was likely his best shot with a dominant defense that held Mahomes to 17 points.
Click to expand...
What that means is his wr weapons will continue to be nelson agholor and obj while guys like Purdy will be throwing to deebo, aiyuk, and Kittle. Ha ha
 
FarFromHome said:
Grahamburn said:
Maybe it doesn’t matter with the salary cap going up every year, but his cap hit balloons these next 3 years. The QBs he’s competing against in the AFC aren’t going anywhere.

This was likely his best shot with a dominant defense that held Mahomes to 17 points.
Click to expand...
What that means is his wr weapons will continue to be nelson agholor and obj while guys like Purdy will be throwing to deebo, aiyuk, and Kittle. Ha ha
Click to expand...
.but…but…..but ……Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely…..
 
********- this dude has it all but still can’t keep the questionable decisions down. He’s a better runner than Josh Allen but he’s no where near him in passing and mental processing. How much better than Fields is Lamar?
 
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