Except for when it does.
Rookie Patrick Mahomes. https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1689002287518437376?s=20
Rookie Patrick Mahomes. https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1689002287518437376?s=20
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"Preseason Doesn't Tell Us Anything - Especially For Rookies" (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
For the non Twitter Folks, it's video of Mahomes as a rookie making plays like he makes today.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This is secretly an Anthony Richardson & Puka Nacua post.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
I've never subscribed to the "preseason means nothing" adage...as long as its viewed through the proper filter.
It was clear that rookie Adrian Peterson was a man among boys from the first snap of his second preseason game (0:56 of attached clip).
ADP 2007 Rookie Highlights
It was clear that rookie Adrian Peterson was a man among boys from the first snap of his second preseason game (0:56 of attached clip).
ADP 2007 Rookie Highlights
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Scoresman
Footballguy
BAD
"X Player is wowing coaches this week in practice!"
"X Player looks to be in the best shape of his life!"
"X Player had an explosive 80 yard run in practice!"
GOOD
"X Player has been lining up in a different spot in practice so far."
"X Player has seen a ton of reps with the first team in practice so far"
"X Team has been using a lot of two TE formations so far."
"X Player is wowing coaches this week in practice!"
"X Player looks to be in the best shape of his life!"
"X Player had an explosive 80 yard run in practice!"
GOOD
"X Player has been lining up in a different spot in practice so far."
"X Player has seen a ton of reps with the first team in practice so far"
"X Team has been using a lot of two TE formations so far."
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Not to nitpick, but wouldn't call those things "bad", just mostly meaningless, but better than the alternative.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Ja'Marr Chase can't catch the ball.
rockaction
Footballguy
Fair rebuttal.
But he still doesn't have an other-wordly catch rate and has dropsies. I picked him 1.01, too. Traded up to get him (cost me the 2.04). The problem with that line of thinking is how important are drops in the scheme of things other than coaches yanking you off of the field? Are drops consistent year-in and year-out? Are they a sticky stat?
For the first question, if Taylor is going to keep running Chase out there and designing plays for him (he has one of the highest first-read percentages among receivers), then who cares for fantasy if he drops one out of ten?
The second or third is where the interesting stat lies. Drops have been called "inconsistent" and "not sticky" by stat analysis guys. That's the thrust of it. So whether he dropped balls one year isn't really determinative of whether he'll drop them next year and the stat isn't predictive of the next year's drops.
Fun stuff!
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
If he he drops half of them just throw it to him twice as much.
Chaka
Footballguy
Never really gave drops much thought but I did just check and was surprised to see Ja'Marr had 11 drops in 17 games as a rookie (8.6%) and another 11 drops in 12 games last year (8.2%). His end of season numbers certainly mask that but, that's not a good rate at all. By comparison Davante has 23 drops over the last five seasons (74 games) and Jefferson has 12 total in two seasons.
Chase is definitely one of the best in the game but this seems like a potentially significant flaw in his game.
rockaction
Footballguy
The statistics guys seem to believe and purport that the statistics seem to show that drops aren't a consistent thing, but scouts would probably tell you differently (that catch technique is a real thing -- a real skill). The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
I watch Chase all the time because of dynasty. The drops don't really kill him because he's so good at getting open and getting open deep, especially -- though I think his aDOT was way down this year from his rookie year because of defensive schemes.
Regardless, as long as Taylor and Burrow trust him, he'll be fine due to sheer volume.
But yeah, the drops. If somebody offered me Jefferson straight up for Chase, I'd accept and only hesitate because of the Cousins/Burrow thing. Jefferson is 1A to Chase's 1B, and as a Jets fan, we'll see if we can't get Garrett Wilson to 1C anytime soon. I'd be thrilled with that, drops or no drops.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Lions have a camp darling this year, Dylan Drummond (EMU) who can't be real. Every day he makes an amazing play, high pointing the ball, toe tapping the sidelines, Goff ran out of adjectives talking about him yesterday. Always where he's supposed to be, catches everything, etc.
Dude has a RAS of 3.66. Wasn't even a priority UDFA, they invited 10 local kids to tryout at [rookie] minicamp. He was the only one to land a spot on the 90 man. Five years of middling production as a rotational WR at a MAC school. Absolutely dominating every day. Makes no sense. Currently listed as a 2nd stringer, totally out of left field.
EDIT this is bonkers
one of five rookies Dan Campbell singled out for praise this week
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Cam Newton made some sweet plays in the pre-season too of his rookie year. That's why I ended up drafting him everywhere. Paid off and went to the championship in both my leagues that year. I can see Anthony Richardson having a similar rookie year. I doubt he gets close to 4000 yards passing though
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Battersbox
Footballguy
This is a fantastic post. Exactly right.
I'm a Bears fan and living through this right now regarding Fields. It's simply impossible to glean any real information about his progress. Impossible.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Might get 4000 rushing tho.
Have you ever tried to catch smoke?
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