PPR DYNASTY RANKINGS.....SNEAK-PEEK AHEAD (1 Viewer)

[switz]

I own DWill in zero out of 4 leagues, to justify the low ranking

as him having a "lucky" year is a bit too simplistic and without merit, imo.

I'm not going to elaborate on every detail in my write-up on exactly why a guy is ranked where I have him. But since you ask, yes, I have a number of reasons for stating that his season was a bit of a fluke, IMO. Here are just a few... 1) Check out his first half of the year......A little over 500 rush yds, 5 total TDs......Not overly impressive, IMO

2) Check out his second half of the year......Almost 1000 rush yds, 15 rush TDs....

3) I've yet to count, but I know he had an inordinate number of 1-2 yd TD runs, I saw plays with S.Smith getting tackled on the 1 yd line quite a few times myself. And especially with Stewart on the team the high number of short TDs for DeA is probably not repeatable, leading to my next and most important factor.

4) Stewart is on the team. Not only was he the 13th pick in the draft, let's not forget this key point, but he is also the primary goal line RB. How do I know, because I witnessed it. When healthy, Stewart gets most of the short yardage work. Much of DeA's success last year was due to Stewart's lack of health, don't be misled to underestimate this point.

Sure, DeA is a very fine RB, probably amongst the 5-6 most talented, IMO, so I am very high on him. But I am tempering my outlook on him as I just see some other factors in play here that lower my expectations, quite a bit.

I agree with everything you wrote except the bolded part. I've watched a lot of Williams, and he's not a top talent guy. There's a reason he sat behind Foster, and did most of his damage those years in spot duty. He'll now be contending with Jonathon Stewart, who I'm also not super high on, but I think he'll take a larger role away from DWill.Additionally, you have to take into account the absolutely pitiful defenses he faced last season, KC, OAK, DET, ATL, DEN, NO. Of course he'll face ATL and NO again, but his schedule is going to be much more difficult. He is looking more at 1100-1200 yards, instead of 1500.

 

[Instinctive]

Additionally, you have to take into account the absolutely pitiful defenses he faced last season, KC, OAK, DET, ATL, DEN, NO. Of course he'll face ATL and NO again, but his schedule is going to be much more difficult. He is looking more at 1100-1200 yards, instead of 1500.

I just posted the stats and research to back that claim up in the DeA vs Turner thread.Now, let's also remember that if he hits 1100 yds and 10 TDs that is still a very safe 1st round pick. He may nto be a transcendent force, but that is definitely a guy who I could love having on my team and being able to be counted on every week.Especially if you throw in another 200-300 rec yds, he could give almost 100 yds a week with a TD. I like those stats...If you don't expect too much, you could be very pleased with how he does. If you expect top 5 RB numbers, expect to be disappointed.

 

[corpcow]

I own DWill in zero out of 4 leagues, to justify the low rankingas him having a "lucky" year is a bit too simplistic and without merit, imo.

I don't own Bush or DWill in any leagues, but if I had my choice of the two I would definitely pick DeAngelo except MAYBE in a PPR league. I still think DWill is overrated based on last year's numbers and don't expect him to quite live up to last year, but I think he's a a more well-rounded back on a team that has an amazing o-line and added even more road-graders in the offseason. They are a run-first team, and while he may not be as exciting or dynamic as Bush (who did seem to turn a corner), I think his floor is a lot higher. That said, I wouldn't quite put either in the top 5 RBs for dynasty purposes. I would probably put DeAngelo around 8-9 and Bush just outside the top 10. For my money, I'd rather have ADP, MJD, SJax, Turner, Chris Johnson, Gore, and maybe even Forte (who I'm not terribly high on as I've discussed in other threads) before D-Will. And I'd probably take Jacobs, Barber, and maybe even Portis and Moreno before Bush.

 

[Ripleys]

one thing that I don't believe has been added to this thread, is that Fox said they are VERY pleased with how well DeAngleo has done in the passing game, and have plans to utilize him a lot more this coming season. So in PPR leagues, those catches COULD make up the difference in a POTENTIAL drop in total TDs.

 

[kremenull]

I own DWill in zero out of 4 leagues, to justify the low ranking

as him having a "lucky" year is a bit too simplistic and without merit, imo.

I'm not going to elaborate on every detail in my write-up on exactly why a guy is ranked where I have him. But since you ask, yes, I have a number of reasons for stating that his season was a bit of a fluke, IMO. Here are just a few... 1) Check out his first half of the year......A little over 500 rush yds, 5 total TDs......Not overly impressive, IMO

2) Check out his second half of the year......Almost 1000 rush yds, 15 rush TDs....

3) I've yet to count, but I know he had an inordinate number of 1-2 yd TD runs, I saw plays with S.Smith getting tackled on the 1 yd line quite a few times myself. And especially with Stewart on the team the high number of short TDs for DeA is probably not repeatable, leading to my next and most important factor.

4) Stewart is on the team. Not only was he the 13th pick in the draft, let's not forget this key point, but he is also the primary goal line RB. How do I know, because I witnessed it. When healthy, Stewart gets most of the short yardage work. Much of DeA's success last year was due to Stewart's lack of health, don't be misled to underestimate this point.

Sure, DeA is a very fine RB, probably amongst the 5-6 most talented, IMO, so I am very high on him. But I am tempering my outlook on him as I just see some other factors in play here that lower my expectations, quite a bit.

I agree with everything you wrote except the bolded part. I've watched a lot of Williams, and he's not a top talent guy. There's a reason he sat behind Foster, and did most of his damage those years in spot duty. He'll now be contending with Jonathon Stewart, who I'm also not super high on, but I think he'll take a larger role away from DWill.Additionally, you have to take into account the absolutely pitiful defenses he faced last season, KC, OAK, DET, ATL, DEN, NO. Of course he'll face ATL and NO again, but his schedule is going to be much more difficult. He is looking more at 1100-1200 yards, instead of 1500.

Just curious Switz, but who do you think are some of the more talented RBs, if not these two in Carolina?

 

[Instinctive]

Guys at least as talented as DeAngelo:

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Steven Jackson

3. LT

4. Westy

LT and Westy both getting old, but definitely right now at least as talented as DWill.

I like to also add Chris Johnson to this list, but I believe some of you would disagree. That would be my top 6 "most talented"

Ronnie Brown probly in conversation.

(edit because add was as s)

 

[kremenull]

Guys at least as talented as DeAngelo:

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Steven Jackson

3. LT

4. Westy

LT and Westy both getting old, but definitely right now at least as talented as DWill.

I like to also add Chris Johnson to this list, but I believe some of you would disagree. That would be my top 6 "most talented"

Ronnie Brown probly in conversation.

(edit because add was as s)

I thought this was 2009, not 2005...... S-Jax is pretty talented, but not even close to being amongst the best as far as pure physical ability as a runner. Not much burst and definitely not all that fast, when I think of talent I'm referring to traits like cutback ability, vision, burst/acceleration, agility, top-end speed. When guys are very good, well above-avg. in these areas they can reach a level of a "special" player, ala Barry Sanders, Tomlinson, Dickerson, etc. I'd say DeA has much better physical skills (i.e., better in the aforementioned traits) than S-Jax, just look at the number of long runs as an indication. And ypc is another barometer, again DeA excels here, simply more dynamic. S-Jax is more of a pounder type, which is fine as he is a genuine workhorse, but just not a supreme talent, IMHO.

 

[Instinctive]

Guys at least as talented as DeAngelo:

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Steven Jackson

3. LT

4. Westy

LT and Westy both getting old, but definitely right now at least as talented as DWill.

I like to also add Chris Johnson to this list, but I believe some of you would disagree. That would be my top 6 "most talented"

Ronnie Brown probly in conversation.

(edit because add was as s)

I thought this was 2009, not 2005...... S-Jax is pretty talented, but not even close to being amongst the best as far as pure physical ability as a runner. Not much burst and definitely not all that fast, when I think of talent I'm referring to traits like cutback ability, vision, burst/acceleration, agility, top-end speed. When guys are very good, well above-avg. in these areas they can reach a level of a "special" player, ala Barry Sanders, Tomlinson, Dickerson, etc. I'd say DeA has much better physical skills (i.e., better in the aforementioned traits) than S-Jax, just look at the number of long runs as an indication. And ypc is another barometer, again DeA excels here, simply more dynamic. S-Jax is more of a pounder type, which is fine as he is a genuine workhorse, but just not a supreme talent, IMHO.

I think the fact that SJax has produced with a much worse OLine and the fact that his career rushing average is at 4.3 ypc is quite a feat. He's also better as a receiver and in pass protection. It's definitely a debatable point, but he's at least in the same conversation as DWill. And SJax has great burst and cutback ability, have you watched him play ever?It is 2009, and I think you'd be hard pressed to say that even now, Westy and LT aren't at least as talented as DWill. Next year, that could be very different, and I could see a bit of an argument for each, but these are guys I say are at the SAME level, not necessarily better.

 

[J R]

just spotted this thread.

 

[kremenull]

2010 (EARLY-LOOK) DYNASTY RANKINGS

This is a sneak-peek ahead to the ’10 rankings for dynasty formats. I’ve grouped each offensive skill position in 3 tiers (RS, SS, and TS) to include 18 QBs, 40 RBs, 60 WRs, and 18 TEs. Let me stress that these rankings are based on PPR (pt per reception) leagues. That’s what I enjoy the most and if I have 10 leagues, at least 9 of ‘em would be PPR. These leagues, IMO, offer more versatility and bring different strategies to the table to promote much more lively leagues. My thinking is for the most part non-consensus, as I will (rarely) look at anyone else’s rankings, and if I do, it will only be after I complete my own. One thing that I’ve learned over the past few years is to exercise patience in dynasty, and that is one reason why I only update my rankings twice per year,

1) October – Looking ahead to the next season, and

2) June/July – My final ranks entering the upcoming season.

I primarily go by what my eyes see first and foremost, and as a supplement what I read in reports and information gleaned from scouts/personnel people. I’ve come to find that my rankings fall more in line with value, not simply looking at the current production or situation of a player. And by value, I mean trade/acquisition value, which may help to explain why I have always and will continue to place a premium on age and overall talent based on my evaluations. Anyways, have at it and feedback/criticism/discussion is welcomed.

First up, THE TOP 40 RBS!

Up Next: The Top 60 WRs

THE RUNNERS.......MEAT ‘N POTATOES OF YOUR FANTASY MEAL

RS…..REIGN SUPREME

1. Adrian Peterson RB 6’1 ½ “ 220 Vikings

With the most lethal combination of size, power, speed, and agility, “All-Day” remains at the top of the pile. No current RB can match Peterson’s overall skill set as a pure runner and he stands as the most legitimate yearly threat to amass 2200+ total yards with double-digit TDs. As the weapons continue to evolve around him, especially at QB, this beast will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future making him the absolute, clear-cut #1 RB in any dynasty league format.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew RB 5’7” 210 Jaguars

“The Human Bowling Ball of Butcher Knives” is quite simply one of the best football players in the NFL, able to do all of the things necessary to assist his team to victory (running, receiving, pass protection). If there were any questions regarding how MJD would adapt to a heavier workload as the primary RB without his mentor and sidekick Fred Taylor, those concerns should now be eliminated. “Pocket Hercules” is not only a dynamic playmaker, capable of ripping off huge gainers and multiple TD efforts any given Sunday, but he also receives the goal-line work. After signing a huge contract extension this offseason and with Taylor’s exit, MJD is positioned to enjoy successive seasons of huge production, barring injury, of course.

SS…SIMPLY SUPERB aka SUPER STUDS

3. Jonathan Stewart RB 5’10” 235 Panthers

Yes, you are reading this correctly, J-Stew is my #3 rated dynasty RB. I strongly believe in this kid’s talent, as he has a suddenness to his running ability that will become more evident as the ’09 season wears on. Being ahead of the curve is what this particular ranking is about, as I’ve seen enough of J-Stew to realize that this guy has “special” written all over him. The outlook for him to truly start realizing his production could be as late as 2011, but from my perspective it isn’t often you have a chance to land a (potential) marquee RB. Strong as a bull, with excellent vision and burst, combined with very nice agility and the speed to take it to the house, the resulting product is Jonathan “NO JOKE!” Stewart. He will bring defenders the business on every down…..eventually.

4. Chris Johnson RB 5’11” 200 Titans

Johnson exhibits superior top-end speed, but what really separates him from the pack is his burst/acceleration, which is off the charts. Once this young man spots an opening, he’s through it faster than the speed of light. Yes, the kid is electrifying. One thing that he must eliminate is trying to make the spectacular play all the time. Johnson of late is looking to bounce almost everything to the outside even on plays designed to go through the ‘A’ gaps, leading to a lot of zero and/or negative plays. But you simply can’t ignore his big-play capability as it can translate into those special performances, e.g., his 50+ pt outburst vs. Houston. If/when the receptions start to come more consistently, he could elevate even further up the list into the RS stratosphere…

5. DeAngelo Williams RB 5’9 ½” 215 Panthers

“DeA” rewarded his patient owners in 2008 with a phenomenal season, and after further study this kid is a special talent. He runs with good leverage and outstanding balance, with the vision to consistently find the creases in the defense to gain positive yards when there appears to be nothing available. I’ve always really liked the kid’s talent, and he could end up in another uniform in 2010 or 2011, but wherever his future home is, DeA will deliver. And as much as I really like DeAngelo, I view him as a pretty dynamic player, I believe that Stewart is even better. It’s a situation similar to Priests Holmes vs. Larry Johnson, in my eyes. As well as Priest Holmes performed, if given the same circumstances/situation (o-line, system, etc.), I always believed that LJ would be even better.

6. Frank Gore RB 5’9 ½” 212 49’ers

Gore has always been an extremely talented, yet under-appreciated RB (in fantasy circles). Exhibiting one of the best “body leans” in the game, this guy always seems to be on balance and churning forward, bursting through the slightest of openings while finishing runs with the best of ‘em. This guy keeps himself in phenomenal shape and is the centerpiece of his team’s offense, so look for “The Inconvenient Truth” to be amongst the Top 4-5 in total yards from scrimmage for the next 2-3 seasons. If he ever boosts his TD total, Watch Out!

7. Beanie Wells RB 5’11” 235 Cardinals

Beanie still has a lot to prove, but is also in a very good situation in AZ, where he has a very good surrounding cast and a coach who will eventually get around to emphasizing the running game. Combining great size, dynamite power (excellent stiff-arm), good feet with surprising burst and speed, the only question for me is his durability. In many respects, Wells somewhat reminds me of an ’08 draftee with a similar skill-set and body-type who also had durability concerns entering the league (currently ranked #3 on this list). In the final analysis, I expect Wells to be the clear-cut top RB out of the ’09 class.

8. Ray Rice RB 5’9” 207 Ravens

“RR” has taken a huge jump into the upper echelon of fantasy RBs. And his performance to-date is not a mirage/fluke. The kid has some serious play-making skills and his effectiveness in the passing is what could propel his value even higher. Blessed with a low center of gravity, Rice is able to squeeze through would-be tacklers on a routine basis and he maintains balance after contact as well as any RB in the league. Equipped with a very talented, and young, offensive line, I believe Rice is headed for stardom…….at least in the fantasy world. One aspect of his game that must improve is his inside running from a pro-set (I-formation).

9. Steven Jackson RB 6’2” 232 Rams

S-Jax is a very talented runner and all-around great football player, it’s simply a shame that he is stuck on a team as inept as the Rams. The scoring opportunities (TD chances) simply aren’t consistent for him yet the saving grace for S-Jax owners is his all-purpose game. Already in his prime for a RB (will be 27 yrs old in ‘10), at least the offensive line has the potential for improvement moving forward. If the Rams can address the QB situation in the offseason, this would go a long way towards alleviating some of the pressure and attention that S-Jax must deal with on a constant basis. It is clear that the new regime has placed most of the offensive burden on Jackson, and he is more than capable of carrying such a heavy load as he is one of the last, true workhorse RBs, but the pieces around him must get better for him to not get physically worn down much faster than he should.

10. Felix Jones RB 5’11” 218 Cowboys

From Oct. 2008: “I believe this guy is one of the most talented pure runners in the game with top-notch instincts, vision, and explosion. It may be hard to fathom, but I would not at all be surprised to see “The Cat” being the primary ballcarrier in Big “D” before the end of 2010”…..From June 2009: “I believe there is no doubt that Jones will be a stud in the NFL, with Top 10 fantasy potential. I can see Felix simply outclassing MB3 in ’09, the kid is that talented, and Dallas will not be able to keep him off the field for long.”…… Today, Oct. 20, 2009: Can he stay healthy?

11. Matt Forte RB 6’1” 220 Bears

For all the doubters who lacked faith in Forte from the beginning and for some of those same doubters who still continue to knock the guy, let it go. Much of what has happened in ’09 to-date is related to a variety of factors, not the least of which is subpar blocking, to put it mildly. True, Forte is not an elite physical talent, but he is blessed with great vision and elite feet. This guy has a very nice package of speed, power, instincts (especially his natural-looking cutback ability), and receiving skill to become, dare I say, a great player in the mold of a Marcus Allen.

12. Michael Turner RB 5’10” 238 Falcons

A literal “wrecking-ball” of a runner, Turner has immediately ingratiated himself to legions of fantasy diehards, some (like me) who were pretty skeptical of his decision to sign with ATL. This guy is a tough inside runner who is very difficult to bring down one-on-one and a threat to break off a long run at any moment. The Falcons have been wise to ease up on his workload from ’08 as it’ll eventually keep his legs fresh and body from getting beat up in a hurry, and he may even be getting at least a few looks in the passing game, which can only help his value moving forward. By adding at least two receptions per game, “The Burner” would develop into a more consistent fantasy producer, which is my biggest knock at this point.

13. Knowshon Moreno RB 5’11” 218 Broncos

Moreno is a very good all-around RB in the mold of a (pre-injury) Cadillac Williams. Moreno is a heck of a football player with tremendous running instincts, but he is not quite as physically gifted as the elite RBs in the league. However, the Josh McDaniels system is a perfect fit for his all-purpose skill set and Moreno is positioned to post Top 12ish seasons for years to come.

14. C.J. Spiller RB 5’10” 200 NFL Draft ‘10

Yes, I know he has yet to play a down in the NFL. But this is dynasty, and in startup drafts a decision has to be made of where to slot the incoming talent vs. the existing talent, so here is an early decision. Spiller is a dynamic talent, and is almost identical to Chris Johnson in running style and (projected) 40 time, and Spiller may be a little better in the passing game than Johnson right now. I expect Spiller to light it up in the upcoming postseason evaluation process leading up to the draft and his playmaking ability certainly translates to the next level.

15. Rashard Mendenhall RB 5’10” 225 Steelers

I’m still not totally on board here with Mendenhall as a stud RB. There is loads of potential and a whole lot to like (power, speed, vision, pedigree) in Mendenhall, but something still doesn’t quite seem right about this kid. I don’t know if he truly has an understanding of what it takes to be a great RB in this league with regards to preparation and taking care of your body. I guess what I’m questioning is his dedication over the long haul and whether or not he can stay motivated to play at a high level and even look to improve every year. As of right now, things are looking up for him and if he answers the bell on some of these concerns, he could trek well up these rankings in my final analysis..

16. Jonathan Dwyer RB 6’0” 230 NFL Draft ‘10

Dwyer is a tough evaluation based on the way he is utilized in college, or should I say ‘misused’ in college. The Ramblin’ Wreck actually have him playing fullback in a sort of wishbone-like option offense. But it is a good thing that there is film of this kid operating out of the I-formation from his freshmen season as well as his H.S. footage. Dwyer has very good feet and speed for a big guy, and has a chance to be special if he puts it all together once he enters the league. Somewhat reminiscent of Jonathan Stewart in size and straight-line speed, but I’m not quite sure that he has the athleticism and/or lateral agility/quickness of Stewart. If I had to make a selection right now, I’d take my chances with a guy of this talent/potential over the remainder of the field.

17. Steve Slaton RB 5’10” 215 Texans

I believe Slaton listened too much to his critics last year and decided to add weight in order to appease the masses, including his head coach. The result is that he doesn’t appear quite as quick/explosive off the snap and when combined with the Texans’ inferior run-blocking, Slaton looks like an underperformer. Well, things aren’t quite as bleak as they appear and the many detractors are a bit too quick to judge. Over the long haul, Slaton is still a very talented RB and once he figures out his ideal playing weight (as well as cure his “fumble-itis”), he should be just fine.

18. LeSean McCoy RB 5’10” 205 Eagles

“Shady” is in the ideal spot for his skill set. And with an aging, injury-riddled star RB the only obstacle in front of him, McCoy should get plenty of opportunity in ’10 and become the lead dog by 2011. Westbrook’s career should serve as a perfect blueprint for McCoy in the Eagles’ version of the WC offense. Once the additions up front along the o-line get on the same page and develop cohesion, McCoy’s production should be very consistent. If McCoy ends up being as good as Westbrook, or even reasonably close, this ranking may prove to be a bit low.

19. Donald Brown RB 5’10” 210 Colts

I like Brown’s skill set, but am not overly excited about him. Given that he landed on such a fantasy-friendly team, his prospects become that much more appealing when, and if, he gets the full-time gig. Addai could be re-signed if the price is right for the Colts, but I believe that Brown is far better than Addai anyway so Brown should become the lead guy in the tandem going forward. The Colts must look to improve their o-line immediately as they continue to regress in their run blocking.

TS…..TERRESTRIAL SWAG

20. Ronnie Brown RB 6’0” 230 Dolphins

Brown has always been one of the most talented RBs in the game, and even though he is fast approaching 28 yrs of age, I believe he is in the midst of his best 2-3 years. IMO, this guy was one of the 4-5 “special” RBs in the league prior to his ACL injury, and based on how he has looked so far in 2009, Brown has shown that he still has a lot of ability. I predicted a huge breakout in ’09, and for 2010 another Top 10 season can be achieved. He obviously would be ranked much higher by me if he was a bit younger.

21. Pierre Thomas RB 5’10” 223 Saints

Thomas has earned the right to be the guy in the Saints backfield as he has worked hard to improve (added 10+ lbs of muscle for the ‘09 season) and has produced at a high level when given the opportunity. Mike Bell’s rebirth has slightly dampened his upside.

22. Ahmad Bradshaw RB 5’9” 207 Giants

This guy has emerged as the best RB in the Giants committee, one (RBBC) that is rich in potential fantasy gold. I see him as a poor man’s MJD…..

23. Darren McFadden RB 6’1 ½” 215 Raiders

Enduring yet another unfulfilled year in RaiderLand, D-Mac is testing his owners’ patience. He is undeniably a special physical talent but he does need improvement in several areas, amongst them his patience, vision, and durability.

24. Jahvid Best RB 5’9 ½” 195 NFL Draft ‘10

Blessed with superb vision, instincts, and quickness, Best is truly an explosive talent who will be highly sought after for his big-play ability. Must improve upon his strength, if/when he does, the upper tier awaits.

25. Ryan Mathews RB 5’10 ½” 218 NFL Draft ‘10

One of the fast risers this past season for the upcoming NFL draft, Mathews has outstanding RB skills and is highly underrated. Looks like a Thomas Jones type of runner……has a real ‘nose’ for the endzone.

26. Marshawn Lynch RB 5’11” 225 Bills

In watching the Bills play, in particular Lynch, I see so much potential here but am often left wondering, what’s the holdup? Well, what has become increasingly more apparent is the Bills lack of a legitimate o-line. This is killing their offensive development and continuity. Lynch is a tough runner with good athleticism but at some point are we going to say, “he is what he is?”

27. Shonn Greene RB 5’10 ” 230 Jets

Had a pretty nice opening act vs. the putrid Raiders, and with LW’s future up in the air, Greene is in line for a major opportunity in 2010. Could become the next Rudy Johnson/Stephen Davis type of RB…..and if so, he could move up quite a bit in the final ranks. How much of a move could ultimately depend upon his receiving ability.

28. Cedric Benson RB 5’11 ” 228 Bengals

WOW! Who woulda thought they’d ever see this ’09 performance from him? Cedric Benson? However, my ranking may not be as high as many expected……My advice: SELL HIGH!

29. Laurence Maroney RB 5’11” 220 Patriots

I’m not ready to call it quite yet, but we just may witness a “Benson-like” resurrection from Maroney in 2010. At a career crossroads, will he seize the moment?

30. Marion Barber III RB 5’10” 225 Cowboys

“The Barberian” is one of the best closers among NFL RBs. He could remain in that role, or possibly be traded/released??? It’s time to let “The Cat” out of the bag. Felix, that is….

31. Jamaal Charles RB 5’11” 205 Chiefs

Charles will be the starter in K.C. by 2010 at the latest. Very talented ballcarrier with the explosiveness teams covet as well as soft hands to be able to stay on the field on 3rd down. There are some holes in his game that need to be addressed, such as needed bulk and pass protection, but Haley’s spread offense looks like a great fit for his skill set. I am banking that Charles “gets it” and works hard enough to maximize his enormous talents.

32. Reggie Bush RB 6’0” 205 Saints

As one of the staunchest Reggie Bush backers over the years, it appears the time has come to turn the page. His value has torpedoed over the past year and change to the point of believing that the idea of the Saints converting Bush to a full-time WR is probably a good idea…..I’m sure he’d be better (and more explosive) than Lance Moore out of the slot.

33. Kevin Smith RB 6’1” 215 Lions

Smith is a very smooth, effective RB with a nice all-around skill set. Ala Moreno, he is not quite as physically gifted as the elite RBs in the league. I believe he can enjoy a nice run as a quality starter in the NFL for a few years, but he gives me the same feeling that I had about Addai all along, that he’s nothing special and a guy whom the Lions should look to upgrade sooner rather than later. Enjoy the run while you can.

34. Michael Bush RB 6’1” 240 Raiders

In this era of the RBBC, guys who have the potential to score a significant number of TDs as well as rack up a nice line of total yards (receiving + rushing) will become valuable commodities. Bush is one of these guys.

35. Tashard Choice RB 5’10” 212 Cowboys

Choice is a very good all-around RB, although he does nothing special but is good in many areas, the key to his value with the Cowboys will be if Barber remains in 2010 or 2011??? Long-term, he could assume a bigger role if his situation ever changes.

36. James Davis RB 6’0” 215 Browns

Not his fault the coaching staff doesn’t have a clue (getting guys injured in unsanctioned drills to name one of their many blunders), but there is ample opportunity to be claimed in Cleveland. Davis possesses pretty good running skills.

37. Brandon Jacobs RB 6’4” 260 Giants

This guy sure does play for the right team, as he is literally a Giant……Unfortunately, “The Incredi-Bulk” epitomizes the profile of the type of RB that just doesn’t last very long in the NFL - tall, bruising, straight-line power RB. Simply not much upside moving forward here and is very limited in my beloved PPR leagues.

38. Bernard Scott RB 6’0” 205 Bengals

A true sleeper candidate heading into next season and with only Benson currently ahead of him, I’d definitely take a chance on this kid in the middle rounds of 2010 dynasty drafts.

39. Fred Jackson RB 6’1” 215 Bills

With the Bills’ RB situation a bit cloudy moving forward (do they extend Lynch?), Jackson remains on the list due to the possibility of a prime role. He showed quite a bit when given the opportunity.

40. Leon Washington RB 5’9” 205 Jets

I feel bad for the guy, but keep him on your radar if he can come back full strength, some NFL team could get a nice pickup as it is uncertain that he resigns with the Jets.

 

[kremenull]

Oct. 27: Top 40 RBs

Today: Top 60 WRs!

Up Next: Top 18 TEs

THE STUNNERS.......SALAD DRESSING, DIPS, & DESSERTS OF YOUR FANTASY MEAL

RS…..REIGN SUPREME

1. Calvin Johnson WR 6’5” 237 Lions

Maybe bigger!....Calvin not only has unparalleled size and strength for the position, but he also has enough competitiveness and swagger to dominate opposing CBs. The sky is the limit for the wunderkind, and going forward Johnson has the highest ceiling of any WR, capable of putting up some Randy Moss like seasons. Yes, “Megatron” is that talented. His youthfulness gives him the slightest edge over my #2 guy, although Calvin’s production for another year+ could lag behind the next player up…..

2. Andre Johnson WR 6’3” 230 Texans

One of the premier athletes in all of the NFL at any position, Johnson is also entering into his prime as a player and remains a primary focus in the Texans offense. “Andre1500” is ultra-explosive and as physical a wideout as there is in the league. From a production standpoint, he probably is the surest bet to finish as a Top 3 WR again in 2010.

3. Larry Fitzgerald WR 6’3” 215 Cardinals

Fitzgerald has the drive and desire to be the best at his position, maybe of all-time, and he is at the top of his game right now. The slight concern that I have is how much of an impact will the (eventual) switch from Warner to Leinart have on Fitzgerals’s production.

SS…SIMPLY SUPERB aka SUPER STUDS

4. Vincent Jackson WR 6’5” 235 Chargers

V-Jax is a premier big-play WR in the mold of a Plaxico Burress. Along with the big plays, however, V-Jax has honed his game to become a trusted possession WR who moves the chains and is clearly QB Rivers’ #1 target. I’m hoping that Jackson simply didn’t turn it on to get rewarded with a big contract but that he may have finally matured as a player and person. The on-field results of late have been phenomenal and very consistent, and with this vault up the rankings I’d expect there to be more of the same moving forward as the Chargers now are clearly a pass-first team.

5. Roddy White WR 6’2” 215 Falcons

White has emerged as a legit stud, not only in the fantasy realm but also in the NFL. White exudes plenty of confidence and has the swagger of a guy who knows he can dominate opposing defensive backs every Sunday. Armed with elite speed and a nice, long, sturdy frame, White and his young QB Ryan have developed quite a rapport in a short time.

6. Reggie Wayne WR 6’1” 190 Colts

Wayne is the clear top-option in the passing game for the Colts with Manning in his prime. One of the most often targeted players in the league, Wayne is in the most favorable situation of any WR in the league, thus his status as an elite fantasy WR will continue until he shows obvious signs of slowing down, which is not likely for at least 3 more seasons.

7. Marques Colston WR 6’4” 225 Saints

Mr. Consistency, or just call him “Constant”, is one of those players you just don’t worry about. Being the #1 WR target in the most pass-happy offense in the NFL is a really nice gig. No matter how much I try to push this guy down the rankings, he just delivers the goods time and again. Colston is not amongst the most (physically) talented WRs in the game, but he knows what he’s doing and is a tough matchup for any CB due to his size, smarts, hands, and precise route-running.

8. DeSean Jackson WR 5’10” 172 Eagles

When most had Eddie Royal as the best WR of the ’08 class, DeSean was the clear and easy choice for me. Simply one of the best playmakers in the game, the fact that he continues to dazzle on a regular basis is not a mirage. Despite the small physical stature, Jackson’s WR skills are extremely good. A superb route-runner, one of the best in the game today and will soon be regarded as one of the best ever in terms of route running, “Fraction Jackson” is explosive in and out of his cuts and sets up defenders very well with subtle feints, and his smooth change of direction. DeSean shifts gears like a turbo-charged Ferrari, which simply lulls defenders into a false sense of accomplishment (believing they are in good position) before he turns on the jets to leave them in the dust. One thing that he must do is get much stronger as once DBs get their hands on him, they can re-route him rather easily while in the red zone. But over 80 yards of the field, there is no one any better. But don’t sleep, the TDs will be there year-in and year-out, as this kid has the heart and “want to” to excel and be the best.

9. Brandon Marshall WR 6’4 ½” 230 Broncos

There is no doubt in my mind that Marshall has what it takes on the field to be considered for a Top 5 fantasy WR ranking. However, it’s his off-the-field antics that concern me enough so that I simply can’t fully trust him enough that he barely cracks my Top 10, and this is my most shakiest rank of any player as I simply can't trust him as far as I can throw him. Marshall is a scintillating play-maker who adjusts to the ball in flight as well as anyone in the game, and he uses his large frame to regularly come down with balls in traffic. But it just keeps coming back to the potential for this kid to throw it all away that simply boggles my mind. That stated, the young man referred to by some as “Godzilla” still can produce big-time and is the quintessential high-risk/high reward pick.

10. Greg Jennings WR 5’11” 197 Packers

Jennings is still entrenched as one of the best, young WRs in the league and looks like he’ll only get better. While many will be moving him down their ranks going into next year, this would be a huge mistake to move him too much, as the situation in Green Bay is simply too good and Jennings is their best playmaker on the outside. With a great combination of athleticism, speed, body control, and focus, Jennings makes not only the difficult catches but is consistent with his hands that he can be relied upon to deliver strong numbers on a weekly basis. Throw the subpar start to ’09 out the window, he’s legit and a definite keeper.

11. Percy Harvin WR 5’11” 199 Vikings

For the record, Harvin has been very high up in my ranks from the beginning, and many still will not buy into such a lofty ranking. But talent and playmaking ability are the reasons why he has to be here, IMO. Talk about dynamite in a bottle, meet Percy Harvin. Along with DeSean Jackson, Harvin is right there as the most electrifying player in the game and his WR skills too are not yet fully appreciated by the masses. As long as the Vikes can find a good QB going forward, the sky is the limit for Percy as the kid will simply make plays…..on a regular basis.

12. Dwayne Bowe WR 6’2 ½” 220 Chiefs

D-Bowe, aka “The Show”, has all the tools to become a dominant WR. Displaying very good strength and speed to generate YAC (yards after catch), “The Show” is very competitive on the gridiron and seems to be in an ideal situation to produce at a high level. Yet, Cassel worries me a whole lot and there will need to be another receiving talent brought on board to relieve some of the pressure (and attention) off of Bowe in order for him to truly succeed.

13. Mike Sims-Walker WR 6’1” 215 Jaguars

After having him ranked at #35 entering the ’09 season (you’d be hard-pressed to provide verification of a higher ranking for MSW at that time, June ‘09), Sims-Walker has rewarded my faith and delivered big-time. He’s always been a very talented guy, even more highly regarded than his college teammate Brandon Marshall until the knee injuries occurred, I have no doubt that MSW is legit and will be one of the top producers at the position moving forward. Sims-Walker has a great combination of size/strength/speed, with excellent body control that allows him to adjust to balls thrown off the mark. MSW is a bonafide fantasy STUD!

14. Miles Austin WR 6’1” 215 Cowboys

Not only has Miles Austin quickly emerged as the go-to WR in Dallas, he is also the favored target over Jason Witten as well, which is one of the primary reasons that vaults him this far up the ranks. Exhibiting great “RAC” with the confidence and swagger to step his game up to the next level and handle the spotlight, Austin definitely has the physical attributes necessary to become one of the best……great acceleration and explosion in and out of his breaks as well as being one of the most deadly open field runners in the game

15. Chad Johnson WR 6’1” 190 Bengals

Still one of the most prolific and technically sound players, Johnson is back to his old playmaking ways. His rededication to the game is evident in his performance on the field. As long as he stays hungry he should remain a big factor for a few more years.

16. Santonio Holmes WR 5’11 ½” 195 Steelers

Hines Ward has to slow down at some point, ya think? The passing of the torch waits yet another season, but if it doesn’t happen in ’10, I will have to re-assess my evaluation of Holmes as he can’t continue to get this type of love without being able to overtake an aging, slow, possession WR. Now that big Ben is tossing the rock around with the best of ‘em, there are plenty of opportunities in this offense, something that couldn’t be said till now. I still have faith….but it is waning,

17. Jeremy Maclin WR 6’0” 200 Eagles

The arrival of another playmaker in Philly is telling in that the Eagles have never placed much of a premium on drafting WRs in the early rounds, aside from the kid from U.C.L.A…..yeah, Freddie Mitchell, and we know how that turned out. Maclin is in the mold of a DeSean Jackson in that he is a dynamic playmaker when he touches the ball. Maclin is already integrated into the offense, gaining valuable experience in his 1st year ala DeSean last season. We are witnessing the next dynamic duo in the mold of an Ike Bruce/Torry Holt tandem….guys who aren’t overly big, but are students of the game who also have great talent and know how to get open and make plays. Lots of upside here, it just may require some patience.

18. Hakeem Nicks WR 6’1” 210 Giants

Nicks has enjoyed surprising success early on, but it also has been hard to gauge whether what I am seeing is “real” here. There has been a lot of “garbage-time” production and a fluke play or two as well to inflate his statistics to-date. But there is some talent here with this kid, but there is also some serious competition on the Giants’ roster at his position. I believe I like what I see as far as his overall skill set, and I’m projecting that he eventually separates from the other guys on the team to emerge as the “go-to guy”, although only by a slight margin.

19. Sidney Rice WR 6’4” 205 Vikings

Another guy I had rated much higher than the consensus entering ’09, Rice has emerged as a big-time playmaker for the Vikings this season. However, Minnesota’s WR core is still tough to project going forward for many different reasons. 1) How long will No. 4 continue to play?; 2) They certainly can’t neglect No. 28; and 3) Did I mention that they may not have a good QB in the near future? Rice is a talented young WR who is a viable threat to make big plays, especially in the crucial red-zone.

20. Michael Crabtree WR 6’2” 215 49’ers

An admitted skeptic of Mr. Crabtree upon his entrance into the NFL, I now have seen that the kid has much to offer in terms of fantasy production. I believe he can develop into a reliable PPR dynamo possibly in the mold of an Anquan Boldin type, or a slightly bigger Hines Ward. Blessed with terrific hands, Crabtree is very fluid on the field and a natural receiver. I’m still not sure that he has dynamic playmaking ability, but once he gets a bit more comfortable on the field, I’d definitely like to see some big plays before I give consideration to him for elite potential……

21. Devin Hester WR 5’10” 195 Bears

For a player who has just recently switched to WR, I believe he is well ahead of the (learning) curve and he has even surpassed my lofty expectations for this year. Hester has been much more consistent and is proving to be a trusted option for his QB. How far he continues to progress is up to him and the sky is the limit, as guys with his type of playmaking ability are rare. With Jay Cutler on board, this type of ability (and stability) at the QB situation may be just what Hester needs to take that next step up the ladder to stardom….Royal’s loss (young, star QB) is Hester’s gain.

22. Braylon Edwards WR 6’3” 220 Jets

The primary thing keeping B.E. out of the upper-realm of the SS tier is his tendency to experience extended periods of the “dropsies”. Lapses in concentration bring inconsistency, and with Edwards’ ’07 numbers raising expectations, he has to eliminate such concentration lapses. It appears as if his new address has brought about a new attitude, and there is still a ton of potential here as Edwards is one of the few players who can make a significant leap of the ranks if/when he puts it all together. But right now, that is a big IF.

23. Dez Bryant WR 6’3” 218 NFL Draft ‘10

Bryant is a much ballyhooed prospect that will be under the spotlight from the outset. Given that he will have not played in a competitive game for almost a full year when he begins his NFL career, there will be many questions and attention directed at him. Will he be able to maintain focus under the scrutiny? I believe so. The situation (team) for a WR is much more critical for a WR, however, with this kid’s talent, he could quickly rise up the ranks. My initial comparison for Bryant is to Braylon, in stature, athleticism, potential, but hopefully not the inconsistency……

24. Anquan Boldin WR 6’1” 228 Cardinals

If you’re searching for a hard-nosed, no-nonsense, get-the-job-done playmaker, Boldin is your guy. One of the toughest guys to bring down in the secondary, as long as Boldin is healthy he’ll bring the goods each week. But therein lies the danger, as his propensity to get injured is beginning to take a toll on him as he ages, and the reliability factor simply isn’t there for him as he continues to miss games each year.

25. Steve Smith WR 5’9 ½” 193 Panthers

The man with the average name is no typical player. Smith is a game-breaking WR for whom defenses must game-plan for each Sunday. Even with the added attention from defensive coordinators, Smith is plenty talented as well as experienced enough to get open and make plays. The disaster that is Jake Delhomme will undoubtedly be kicked to the curb and a new trigger man will be taking snaps for the Panthers in ’10. And his name is……….Michael Vick, 75/25…..take the over, as it’s going to happen with the strong possibility of a new head coach as well. Bill Cowher?

26. Randy Moss WR 6’4” 205 Patriots

Arguably, Moss is the most dynamic receiver ever. Any WR who can ring up 23 TDs in a single season at the NFL (highest) level sure is special. But the question I am asking is: How much longer? Not how much longer CAN he do it, but how how much longer does he WANT to do it? IMO, the 2010 season will be the final act for Randy Moss as he will walk away from the game healthy, wealthy, happy, and without any regrets. He’s just that kind of dude. Draft wisely in 2010…..

27. Wes Welker WR 5’9” 185 Patriots

One of the few true “PPR Machines” in the NFL, “W-2” is a threat to catch 100 balls every year as long as he is in N.E. with Brady and Belichick. If the guy had higher TD totals he would be Top 5 material, but as-is he still can play for me any day. The lack of TDs and low ypc limit his upside somewhat and thus I have several other guys rated higher than him based on potential rather than production. But if you require a true safety net selection, then “W-2” is a wise choice.

TS…..TERRESTRIAL SWAG

28. Arrelious Benn WR 6’2” 220 NFL Draft ‘10

Somewhat of a mystery heading into the college postseason, Benn is a very talented guy but hasn’t quite put up the numbers to warrant the type of notoriety he receives. However, there are questions as to whether the system and surrounding cast (particularly at QB, Juice Williams is horribly inaccurate) hampered his production or if Benn simply isn’t a top playmaker? A tough evaluation but the raw physical skills are certainly there it may just take some refining at the next level to get the numbers to match the ability. I believe he can thrive in the right situation, but it may take some patience.

29. Anthony Gonzalez WR 6’0” 195 Colts

The question of whether Gonzalez is truly a standout WR, and not just a bit-player, is still unanswered. The kid is a very smart player and disciplined in his craft and pays attention to detail, but also appears to be a system player. Being on the Colts is ideal for him, and if he were in a different situation, his value, IMO, would not be all that high. But with #18 at the helm of a pass-oriented offense, the starting WRs are almost certain to succeed in their system. Now the question begs, is he still a starter? I say, YES! One thing that I noted is that Gonzalez already had built a good rapport with Peyton and it looked as if Manning had already began to trust that Gonzo would be in the right spots. A.G. is a guy who will be seriously undervalued heading into 2010…..

30. Chaz Schilens WR 6’4” 225 Raiders

Still way under the radar right now, as the foot injury has kept him out of sight, but not out of mind in my ranks. Schilens is a matchup nightmare for DBs, as he not only has great size but also has very good speed and hands to make the tough catches look effortless. Many will be surprised how good this kid is, but I’ve seen it coming for quite some time. Physically, he has the tools to be great.

31. Jerricho Cotchery WR 6’0” 195 Jets

Cotchery continues as the most reliable target for young QB Sanchez….

32. Steve Smith WR 6’0” 190 Giants

Smith is clearly QB Eli Manning’s most trusted target. Don’t see much changing on this front in the short term moving forward…. a very valuable PPR guy.

33. Eddie Royal WR 5’9 ½” 185 Broncos

Without a top-flight QB, we are witnessing what can happen to “system” players.

34. Laurent Robinson WR 6’2” 208 Rams

Was coming on very strong before a season-ending leg injury….Watch out in ’10 as Robinson is a potential breakout candidate if the Rams adequately address their QB situation this offseason.

35 Roy Williams WR 6’3” 215 Cowboys

Roy ‘W’ needs to stop making excuses and start making more plays…It’s that simple or he falls completely off the charts heading into next season.

36. Santana Moss WR 5’9 ½” 183 Redskins

Playing for the 2nd most dysfunctional team in the league doesn’t gain you many accolades nor love especially when your team can’t score points…..Still quite an explosive talent though.

37. Legedu Naanee WR 6’2” 220 Chargers

I believe he is clearly better than Floyd and Naanee has an opportunity to start, and star, in San Diego’s high-octane passing offense.

38. Robert Meachem WR 6’2” 215 Saints

Really starting to “get it” of late, 2010 will be the breakout year.

39. Chris Henry WR 6’5” 200 Bengals

If he exits Cincy after this season, big things could be in store for Henry in ’10 as some team’s feature WR…..Hello Tampa?

40. Jordy Nelson WR 6’2” 215 Packers

The ageless wonder that is Donald Driver is still keeping Nelson in the background for now……but once he gets the opportunity for more PT, Nelson will produce.

41. Donnie Avery WR 5’10” 185 Rams

“The D.A.” is now facing competition as the team’s “go-to” WR from Laurent Robinson and the Rams could possibly bring in a true #1 WR prospect next season. Equipped with a lot of talent, Avery could be a Lee Evans-, Santana Moss-type.

42. Lee Evans WR 5’10 ½” 188 Bills

At this point in his career, he is what he is. A big-play guy who doesn’t offer the consistency desired in PPR leagues, but still a good option as a mid-level WR3.

43. Hines Ward WR 5’11” 205 Steelers

Still catching a lot of balls in “Steel Town”, Ward is now getting by on pure football I.Q. and instincts……and still very productive, BTW.

44. Mario Manningham WR 5’11” 182 Giants

Has a knack for getting open. Could be the Giants’ best open-field runner.

45. Brandon Tate WR 5’11” 185 Patriots

Similar to Manningham, but a bit more explosive due to better long speed. With Moss not having much time left, Tate could find himself with a big-time opportunity fairly soon.

46. James Jones WR 6’1” 208 Packers

Jones could just as well be the guy to take over for Driver as soon as next season.

47. Damian Williams WR 6’2” 212 NFL Draft ‘10

Williams has excellent size and athleticism and has gained valuable experience in a pro-style offense at USC.

48. Mohamed Massoquai WR 6’2” 210 Browns

“MoMass” is currently the #1 WR in Cleveland……is it by default?

49. Kenny Britt WR 6’3 ½” 223 Titans

Britt would be ranked higher if the QB position was a team strength

50. Andre Caldwell WR 6’0” 195 Bengals

Quickly becoming a favorite of QB Carson Palmer…..with an aging Coles and a potential WR exodus over the next couple of seasons, Caldwell could become a much more significant fantasy factor

51. Sammie Stroughter WR 5’9 ½” 185 Bucs

The kid seems to just make plays when his number gets called. Expect a bigger role for the rest of the season and he could become a starter entering the ’10 season.

52. Steve Breaston WR 6’0” 187 Cardinals

If Boldin exits soon, I’m still not sure that Breaston moves into the starting lineup outside as he may continue his critical slot role

53. Demaryus Thomas WR 6’2” 210 NFL Draft ‘10

Thomas is a bit raw, but has splendid talent and is a hard worker. Has the ingredients for success and has ‘Miles Austin-like’ big-play ability

54. Nate Burleson WR 6’0 ½” 190 Seahawks

Nate is enjoying a strong comeback season and may still have a few good years left in him.

55. Mike Wallace WR 5’10” 180 Steelers

Wallace is already entrenched in the slot role for an increasingly pass-oriented offense….

56. T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR 6’1 ½” 205 Seahawks

T.J. is a self-made player for whom the “Average Joe” can really appreciate and root for. However, he is getting a little bit older……and slower.

57. Justin Gage WR 6’4” 218 Titans

A late-bloomer, Gage still has fresh legs and is building some good chemistry with the revitalized Vince Young.

58. Bernard Berrian WR 6’0” 190 Vikings

Moving down in the hierarchy of the Vikings receivers more each day, “BB” is on his way to becoming less relevant and expendable (in both fantasy and actual NFL).

59. Jacoby Jones WR 6’3 ½” 202 Texans

An explosive talent like this could push his way into the lineup if the focus and attention to detail improves

60. Devin Thomas WR 6’2” 205 Redskins

How much rope will the ‘Skins continue to give him before turning the page? If the light comes on soon, this is a kid who could explode onto the scene and make a big impact within the next 2 years.

 

[Inspiration]

52. Steve Breaston WR 6’0” 187 CardinalsIf Boldin exits soon, I’m still not sure that Breaston moves into the starting lineup outside as he may continue his critical slot role

You do realize that Breaston plays almost exclusively outside right now, right? When he comes on to the field, Boldin (or even Fitzgerald) generally moves into the slot; Breaston does very little work from that position. If Boldin leaves, Doucet is likely to take a significant number of snaps from the slot with Breaston remaining outside.

 

[kremenull]

52. Steve Breaston WR 6’0” 187 CardinalsIf Boldin exits soon, I’m still not sure that Breaston moves into the starting lineup outside as he may continue his critical slot role

You do realize that Breaston plays almost exclusively outside right now, right? When he comes on to the field, Boldin (or even Fitzgerald) generally moves into the slot; Breaston does very little work from that position. If Boldin leaves, Doucet is likely to take a significant number of snaps from the slot with Breaston remaining outside.

No, I didn't realize that as I haven't seen a whole lot of AZ this season. I do recall that he did a lot of work out of the slot last season and is still considered the 3rd WR, although he certainly gets a starter's worth of snaps on that team. And one thing that I do know, Leinart does not throw very well to the outside, it is one of his weaknesses. With that said, whether lining up inside or outside, I believe that Breaston is one of the most overvalued players right now, and I do think he will be negatively impacted by the Warner-to-Leinart transition as well as a possible Boldin exodus. How so? Because Warner has a great rapport with Breaston and gets the ball out of his hand very quickly which plays into Breaston's role as Breaston is the least of the defense's worries and can usually get single coverage from the nickel/dime DB. Which leads into the next potential issue, if/when Boldin leaves that means more attention from defenses for him as well as a much better corner covering him if he moves up the hierarchy. Additionally, I'm fully expecting the Cards to become much more reliant on the running game when Leinart assumes the reigns.....He is no Warner, and they have a very talented guy back there named Beanie Wells. My prediction is that Boldin exits after this season, and Warner retires......leaving behind the Fitz & Beanie Show! Stay Tuned....

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

Thanks a lot. Great read.

 

[gdg76]

Some nice info but Ray Rice is glaringly low at 8. I'd have a hard time picking anyone else before him at #3 in a startup PPR dynasty draft for 2010.

 

[kremenull]

Some nice info but Ray Rice is glaringly low at 8. I'd have a hard time picking anyone else before him at #3 in a startup PPR dynasty draft for 2010.

Yeah, thanks for the feedback. Rice is a very tough evaluation for me. I do like the guy's talent and all, but something still tells me to beware somewhat. Getting a lot of points based on receptions, and I've seen this play out before with S-Jax, Ronnie Brown, and Gore where they've yet to achieve that reception level again. So I have to at least wonder if what we are seeing is a product of utilization (Cam Cameron factor), as well as the lack of playmakers currently there, or is he really that good? Right now, I'm not going to go overboard here.....remember a guy named Matt Forte? All of the guys that I have listed above him, IMO, are clearly better talents than him.One thing for certain is that right now Rice is enjoying a very favorable situation indeed, including an excellent o-line, which Forte has yet to experience, and a gameplan that truly features him. But for now, I'm somewhat tempering my enthusiasm and not looking to pay the exhorbitant price for him (AdrPete, MJD, and CJ price currently.....which is ludicrous, IMO). But hey, I have another ranking in June/July to slightly change my mind.........

 

[Inspiration]

52. Steve Breaston WR 6’0” 187 Cardinals

If Boldin exits soon, I’m still not sure that Breaston moves into the starting lineup outside as he may continue his critical slot role

You do realize that Breaston plays almost exclusively outside right now, right? When he comes on to the field, Boldin (or even Fitzgerald) generally moves into the slot; Breaston does very little work from that position. If Boldin leaves, Doucet is likely to take a significant number of snaps from the slot with Breaston remaining outside.

No, I didn't realize that as I haven't seen a whole lot of AZ this season. I do recall that he did a lot of work out of the slot last season and is still considered the 3rd WR, although he certainly gets a starter's worth of snaps on that team. And one thing that I do know, Leinart does not throw very well to the outside, it is one of his weaknesses.

This is incorrect. The WR personnel usage was nearly the same last season as it is this season; Breaston took the fewest snaps out of the slot in 2008 of Arizona's top 3 WRs. This is just from watching them play, but if you would like visual proof, Profootballfocus.com should provide the data (just at a quick glance, Breaston lined up outside more than any other position in all 16 games last season; by contrast, Anquan Boldin lined up in the slot more than any other position in every game he played in last season).

With that said, whether lining up inside or outside, I believe that Breaston is one of the most overvalued players right now, and I do think he will be negatively impacted by the Warner-to-Leinart transition as well as a possible Boldin exodus. How so? Because Warner has a great rapport with Breaston and gets the ball out of his hand very quickly which plays into Breaston's role as Breaston is the least of the defense's worries and can usually get single coverage from the nickel/dime DB. Which leads into the next potential issue, if/when Boldin leaves that means more attention from defenses for him as well as a much better corner covering him if he moves up the hierarchy. Additionally, I'm fully expecting the Cards to become much more reliant on the running game when Leinart assumes the reigns.....He is no Warner, and they have a very talented guy back there named Beanie Wells.

My first comment would be to clear what appears to be a misconception of Breaston's role in the offense. He runs primarily intermediate routes (his average reception has been made further from the line of scrimmage than both Boldin and Fitzgerald this season). One reason for this is, despite popular belief, Breaston (unlike Boldin and Fitzgerald) is not particularly proficient at gaining yards after the catch (which seems counter-intuitive due to the fact that he entered the league as primarily a return-man, but has been the case nonetheless). Secondly, I'll be honest when say your depiction of defensive coverages is extremely elementary (as is the case in most fantasy circles, for some reason. I'm hardly an expert myself, but it does seem quite different from reality). Teams do not use man-to-man coverage on every play. Also, double-coverage occurs far less frequently than generally depicted; teams simply don't line up two defenders directly across from the offense's top receiver every play. Similarly, many teams don't shadow opposing receivers with their corners; rather, they assign them to certain sides of the field. Thus, when the offense moves their personnel around the field (as the Cardinals do with Fitzgerald and Boldin), they create matchups on different defenders (which means that they don't draw the top CBs away from players like Breaston every play). The idea that receivers "draw the attention" of the defense is overused; with or without Boldin, a single defender will be assigned to Breaston (when in man-coverage) on every play (and much of the time, the same defender that would cover him with or without Boldin in the lineup).

In the end, if Boldin is "protecting" Breaston, how do we reconcile this:

Points per game in (2008 and 2009) games without Boldin: 16.14

Points per game in (2008 and 2009) games with Boldin: 11.75

If anything, it appears to me that Breaston is benefiting from Boldin's absence (which is generally the case with most reserve receivers). Maybe I am simplifying this, but greater opportunity equals greater production, right?

Again, I am not trying to say you should change your rankings (how you rank the players is entirely up to you). I am skeptical of Leinart's ability as well and agree that the Cardinals' appear to headed for a more balanced offensive attack in the future. I just figured I would point out a couple statements that I disagreed with.

 

[kremenull]

52. Steve Breaston WR 6’0” 187 Cardinals

If Boldin exits soon, I’m still not sure that Breaston moves into the starting lineup outside as he may continue his critical slot role

You do realize that Breaston plays almost exclusively outside right now, right? When he comes on to the field, Boldin (or even Fitzgerald) generally moves into the slot; Breaston does very little work from that position. If Boldin leaves, Doucet is likely to take a significant number of snaps from the slot with Breaston remaining outside.

No, I didn't realize that as I haven't seen a whole lot of AZ this season. I do recall that he did a lot of work out of the slot last season and is still considered the 3rd WR, although he certainly gets a starter's worth of snaps on that team. And one thing that I do know, Leinart does not throw very well to the outside, it is one of his weaknesses.

This is incorrect. The WR personnel usage was nearly the same last season as it is this season; Breaston took the fewest snaps out of the slot in 2008 of Arizona's top 3 WRs. This is just from watching them play, but if you would like visual proof, Profootballfocus.com should provide the data (just at a quick glance, Breaston lined up outside more than any other position in all 16 games last season; by contrast, Anquan Boldin lined up in the slot more than any other position in every game he played in last season).

With that said, whether lining up inside or outside, I believe that Breaston is one of the most overvalued players right now, and I do think he will be negatively impacted by the Warner-to-Leinart transition as well as a possible Boldin exodus. How so? Because Warner has a great rapport with Breaston and gets the ball out of his hand very quickly which plays into Breaston's role as Breaston is the least of the defense's worries and can usually get single coverage from the nickel/dime DB. Which leads into the next potential issue, if/when Boldin leaves that means more attention from defenses for him as well as a much better corner covering him if he moves up the hierarchy. Additionally, I'm fully expecting the Cards to become much more reliant on the running game when Leinart assumes the reigns.....He is no Warner, and they have a very talented guy back there named Beanie Wells.

My first comment would be to clear what appears to be a misconception of Breaston's role in the offense. He runs primarily intermediate routes (his average reception has been made further from the line of scrimmage than both Boldin and Fitzgerald this season). One reason for this is, despite popular belief, Breaston (unlike Boldin and Fitzgerald) is not particularly proficient at gaining yards after the catch (which seems counter-intuitive due to the fact that he entered the league as primarily a return-man, but has been the case nonetheless). Secondly, I'll be honest when say your depiction of defensive coverages is extremely elementary (as is the case in most fantasy circles, for some reason. I'm hardly an expert myself, but it does seem quite different from reality). Teams do not use man-to-man coverage on every play. Also, double-coverage occurs far less frequently than generally depicted; teams simply don't line up two defenders directly across from the offense's top receiver every play. Similarly, many teams don't shadow opposing receivers with their corners; rather, they assign them to certain sides of the field. Thus, when the offense moves their personnel around the field (as the Cardinals do with Fitzgerald and Boldin), they create matchups on different defenders (which means that they don't draw the top CBs away from players like Breaston every play). The idea that receivers "draw the attention" of the defense is overused; with or without Boldin, a single defender will be assigned to Breaston (when in man-coverage) on every play (and much of the time, the same defender that would cover him with or without Boldin in the lineup).

In the end, if Boldin is "protecting" Breaston, how do we reconcile this:

Points per game in (2008 and 2009) games without Boldin: 16.14

Points per game in (2008 and 2009) games with Boldin: 11.75

If anything, it appears to me that Breaston is benefiting from Boldin's absence (which is generally the case with most reserve receivers). Maybe I am simplifying this, but greater opportunity equals greater production, right?

Again, I am not trying to say you should change your rankings (how you rank the players is entirely up to you). I am skeptical of Leinart's ability as well and agree that the Cardinals' appear to headed for a more balanced offensive attack in the future. I just figured I would point out a couple statements that I disagreed with.

Well, to be totally clear, I don't have time to pick and choose quotes and go back and forth with anyone on semantics. I could care less if Breaston was in the slot 25% or 55%, and outside whatever percentages. I've watched his team more than enough to understand what stirs the drink there, and it is Warner who is keeping all the mouths fed at this time with his vision of the entire field and quick decision-making, so your PPG statistics with and without Boldin and your clarification of a misconception on Breaston's routes are moot. The fact that this offense will be without Warner soon is the overriding factor for middling talents like Breaston. Fitz is King of the Pride here, so he will not suffer. The others, minus Warner and potentially minus Boldin, will suffer. Your detailed analysis of how defenses operate is appreciated, maybe you taught someone a thing or two with your insights, thanks for sharing. Anyway, in the final analysis from me, Breaston is overrated and the benefactor of a good situation right now......for him. Breaston is irrelevent in my fantasy world, but if you think he will be a stud, then go ahead and stick by your guy as I've ridden guys before when others thought little of them. When it's time for him to step to the forefront, then come and see me on him as fervently as you are now.....

 

[Rodeojones]

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[kremenull]

Oct. 27: Top 40 RBs

Nov. 12: Top 60 WRs

Today: Top 18 TEs

Up Next: Top 18 QBs

THE HUNTERS......THAT SPECIAL SAUCE OR SECRET INGREDIENT FOR YOUR FANTASY MEAL

RS…..REIGN SUPREME

1. Dallas Clark TE 6’3 ½” 245 Colts

Clark’s role as the 1(a)/1(b) option in the Colts’ passing offense is solidified, and moving forward he is the clear top choice at the TE position. By remaining healthy over these past two seasons, Clark has alleviated prior concerns over his durability to become one of the more trusted fantasy players in the league. Clark routinely puts up the monster games and is a difference-maker at one of the toughest positions to achieve such status.

2. Vernon Davis TE 6’3 ½” 252 49ers

Mike Singletary is the biggest influence in the emergence of Vernon Davis as an elite player. No longer waiting for the promise of a return on his vast potential, Davis is delivering the goods to his owners on a consistent basis. Blessed with the best tools in the game at his position, V.D. is now amongst the elite and looks like he just may stay awhile.

SS…SIMPLY SUPERB aka SUPER STUDS

3. Jason Witten TE 6’5 ½” 260 Cowboys

The super season for Witten didn’t happen in ’09, but much of why it didn’t falls on the O.C. (Garrett) for his scheme and play-calling. Too many 2-TE sets early in the season and a lack of consistency in the play-calling in the passing game has hurt Witten’s overall numbers, but his rapport with QB Romo is still present and thus Garrett’s status does not negatively impact his value moving forward. “J-Wit” is clearly still a go-to-guy in the passing game for the Cowboys similar to Clark for the Colts, and I don’t see things changing anytime soon even with the emergence of Austin.

4. Antonio Gates TE 6’4” 255 Chargers

In spite of the recent injury woes that has slowed him a bit and limited his maximum effectiveness, Gates is still producing at a very high level. Given the transition towards more passing in the Chargers attack, I fully expect “Microsoft” to be amongst the Top 5 in 2010 as well and he has at least a couple more high-level seasons in him.……

TS…..TERRESTRIAL SWAG

5. Greg Olsen TE 6’5” 255 Bears

G.O. is one of the premier talents at the position, but the expectations for ’09 were simply too much. Which makes him the perfect undervalued player at the position for 2010 as many may have bumped him down much further heading into the offseason. Olsen is able to stretch the field and hit the deep seams in the (middle) secondary and exhibits sure hands, yet we haven’t seen much of this in the Bears’ passing attack during ‘09. Hopefully, Cutler has seen the rough period and is ready to start playing up to his capabilities which will only help his receivers. Most of us were one year too early on the breakout……

6. Kellen Winslow TE 6’4” 245 Bucs

“The Soldja” has proven that there is still plenty left in the tank (physically and emotionally), and is deployed almost like a WR for the Bucs. If this type of utilization continues, his fantasy value and production will remain high, as the young QB Freeman frequently looks for this available target. The change of scenery has appeared to ignite the smoldering fire that K.W.II lost somewhere along the way the past couple of seasons in Cleveland. A bit of a risk, but certainly a chance for huge dividends as well.

7. Owen Daniels TE 6’3” 245 Texans

This guy was on a major upswing where he was improving every year and enjoying a monster ’09 season before suffering a catastrophic knee injury. With youthful exuberance and (underrated) athleticism on his side, “O.D.” (Ol’ Dirty) was looking good in his quest for a new contract. However, things are a bit murky and I am taking a leap of faith with this ranking but I'm hedging my bets that he resigns with the Texans. One other thing to note is the progress of James Casey, who is a very intriguing prospect…..I’ll be keeping an eye on this situation going forward.

8. Jermaine Gresham TE 6’6” 255 NFL Draft ‘10

I believe that Gresham is simply the best skill-position player in the upcoming draft…..Yes, he is that talented and good. Blessed with tremendous athleticism for a guy of his size, as he is a huge target the size of Jason Witten but much, much, MUCH more athletic and faster. An early season knee injury derailed his final collegiate campaign, but by the time NFL mini-camps get rolling, he should be fully recovered displaying his multiple talents to all…..Some team is going to get a great value at the bottom end of the 1st to early 2nd Rd as he is clearly a Top 15 talent, IMO. A word of caution, do not expect him to light it up in his rookie season. But for dynasty leagues, I see Gresham elevating to Top 3-4 status by Year 3, and that is why I will rank him this high right now.

9. Jermichael Finley TE 6’5” 248 Packers

I believe that Finley is an elite talent at the position, probably in the same class physically as a young (pre-injury) Kellen Winslow. Rodgers appears to love this kid and in such a prolific West Coast oriented offense, Finley could develop into a monster…..quickly. “Dallas Clark East” is his upside as he will not be called upon to block much as I’ve seen him lining up in the slot often and even outside some.

10. Dustin Keller TE 6’2 ½” 250 Jets

Since Keller stepped onto the scene for the Jets, IMO, he immediately became their best receiving option (yes, I believed this last year – ‘08). And even with the addition of Braylon, Keller is still their best option as he presents matchup problems to the defense and the Jets are vastly underutilizing this kid and they must get a bit more creative in using him in order to maximize his supreme talents as a pass-catcher. With a young franchise QB (Sanchez), a TE as athletically gifted as Keller would go a long way towards making Sanchez comfortable and assisting in his development if said TE is properly deployed. From flanking out wide to going in motion to even lining up in the backfield, the Jets would be wise to steal a page or two from the Chiefs’ playbook from a few years back when Gonzo was enjoying those monster 90+ catch seasons under Al Sanders and Chan Gailey.

11. Chris Cooley TE 6’3” 250 Redskins

“Captain Chaos” is a steady, albeit unspectacular, football player. He is a guy that simply goes out and gets the job done. However, the uncertainty of the head coach position and thus offensive philosophy puts a slight damper on his prospects moving forward.

12. Tony Gonzalez TE 6’5” 255 Falcons

“Gonzo” is still going pretty strong at 33 yrs of age, albeit in a new address in ’09. The question begs, will ’10 be his last hurrah?

13. Zach Miller TE 6’4 ½ ” 255 Raiders

One of the few reliable options for the Raiders, Miller should continue to be a featured player in the passing game going forward. If a new and competent QB comes in next year, Miller may well be a bargain at this ranking.

14. Brandon Pettigrew TE 6’5” 254 Lions

Looks like he is building a nice rapport with young QB Stafford….

15. Jared Cook TE 6’4 ½” 248 Titans

Extremely gifted yet extremely raw player but too much upside to ignore and he is positioned to be the starting TE as early as 2010.

16. Brent Celek TE 6’6” 252 Eagles

I really like this guy. Problem is there are a multitude of options in Philly and their young WRs are only going to get better. Also, a young and talented Cornelius Ingram is currently rehabbing……….SELL HIGH!

17. Heath Miller TE 6’5” 250 Steelers

I’m not fully buying into this majestic leap in numbers from him. Although with a brand new contract in hand, he ain’t going anywhere anytime soon and he and Big Ben have great chemistry. Do the Steelers continue their pass-happy ways?

18. John Carlson TE 6’5” 255 Seahawks

Overrated…..I thought so after his rookie campaign, and I still think so. Makes my list only so that I can point this out. I would draft Shawn Nelson and Martellus Bennett later instead of him much earlier.

 

[thriftyrocker]

16. Brent Celek TE 6’6” 252 EaglesI really like this guy. Problem is there are a multitude of options in Philly and their young WRs are only going to get better. Also, a young and talented Cornelius Ingram is currently rehabbing……….SELL HIGH!

Eagles just signed Celek to a 6 year deal. $32 mil deal. The team is committed to him. Even if DJax and Maclin progress, they are both speed/stretch the field players which open up the middle for a reliable TE.

 

[kremenull]

16. Brent Celek TE 6’6” 252 EaglesI really like this guy. Problem is there are a multitude of options in Philly and their young WRs are only going to get better. Also, a young and talented Cornelius Ingram is currently rehabbing……….SELL HIGH!

Eagles just signed Celek to a 6 year deal. $32 mil deal. The team is committed to him. Even if DJax and Maclin progress, they are both speed/stretch the field players which open up the middle for a reliable TE.

I do like Celek.......but I'd upgrade another position (WR or QB) and 'downgrade' to a guy like Finley, Keller, or Gresham for him.