CalBear
Footballguy
I was using PFR's Drive Finder, so it's looking at the result of the drive, not the result of the game.Love the data. Can you share the query you ran? I literally can't come up with a rational explanation for this unless the 56/189 in tied games include those times the team scored in OT to win - which, while it obviously needs to be factored into the analysis, would completely skew the comparison on its face.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/drive_finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=1999&year_max=2018&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&start_event[]=Kickoff&end_event[]=Touchdown&end_event[]=Field+Goal&end_event[]=Missed+FG&end_event[]=Fumble&end_event[]=Interception&end_event[]=Downs&end_event[]=Punt&end_event[]=Blocked+Punt&end_event[]=Blocked+FG&end_event[]=Safety&end_event[]=End+of+Half&end_event[]=End+of+Game&exclude_kneels=1&drive_st_gtlt=lt&drive_st_own_opp=Own&drive_end_gtlt=lt&drive_end_own_opp=Own&drive_num_gtlt=gt&start_quarter[]=4&end_quarter[]=1&end_quarter[]=2&end_quarter[]=3&end_quarter[]=4&end_quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=2&seconds=0&margin_min=-2&margin_max=-1#offense_totals::noneCurrent search:
From 1999 to 2018, any team vs. any team, in the regular season, started in the fourth quarter, 2:00 or less remaining, started with Kickoff, scoring margin is between -2 and -1
I re-ran it looking just at drives starting with less than one minute.There, teams trailing scored 13.2% of the time (12/91), while tied teams scored 18.2% of the time (16/88).
And how's this for a monkey wrench; if you're down by exactly 3, drives do slightly better than being down by 1 or 2. 16.1% FG and 6.8% TD (22.9% scores vs. 21.1%), while passing goes up to 94.4% of the plays called (48/814).