Playoff teams directly linked to this stat (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

Very interesting stuff from Mike Clay.

The key is ACTUAL VS. EXPECTED pass/run.  You clearly see teams that were the most predictable did not qualify for the playoffs.

Also, the interesting part about run-heavy teams making the playoffs directly connected to ACTUAL VS. EXPECTED run to pass.

Check out the LINK to the chart.

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Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL

Here are the final game-script-adjusted pass rates for each team.

Very interesting to see that 10 of the top 12 pass-heaviest offenses made the playoffs.

But also 4 of the Bottom 7.

game-script-adjusted pass rates for each team

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Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL

12 of the top 13 teams in score differential made the playoffs.

The exception?

The Colts, who rank seventh at +86 2 teams with a negative score differential made the playoffs: Steelers (-55) and Raiders (-65).

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

That's all well and good, but a better predictor is that if a team has ever cut or traded Antonio Brown (or had a last-minute trade fall through when he refused to commit to reporting to them), they made the playoffs this year