Old Stud WRs at a Discount (1 Viewer)

[RavenLunatic]

I think it is wise to remember the WR's who are slipping in dynasty value but are expected to put up solid WR#1 numbers in 2012. I think if you have them on your roster, don't trade them at a discount (essentially for lottery picks). You may hit on one of those picks but the odds are against you. If you don't have one, do the opposite and try to acquire one at a dynasty driven discount. Having one or two of these players can anchor your WR lineup for the next couple of years as you replace their WR#1 position in your lineup through the draft or trade. Even if you have a bonafide young WR#1 (Megatron, Nicks, Green, etc), why not add an old stud and ride them into the sunset as they gracefully step down the rankings ladder? Scoring during the season doesn't care how old a player is that is putting up your points. Eventually today's young bucks will slide into this role.

Current WR #1's that are 30+:

Wes Welker (30), Andre Johnson (30), Roddy White (30), Steve Smith (32)

Additionally, past WR#1's that have slipped can remain valuable members of your lineup either as a WR#2, WR#3 or in a flex role. Unlike RB's that fall off a cliff, or QB's that stay until they want to retire (Elway, Warner, Favre), most WR's that are elite tend to remain relevant for several years. While no one is Jerry Rice (last 1,000 yard season at the age of 40), and for some, the dropoff will feel abrupt, most will continue to spoil us until they call it a career or take a few victory laps. Others like Cris Carter (35), Marvin Harrison (35), Isaac Bruce (34) and Derrick Mason (35), all provided 1000+ for several more seasons after turning 30. Joe Horn played until he was 35 but had his last 1,000 yard season at 32.

The only exception may be speed receivers like Torry Holt and Joey Galloway. This may be a warning for the longterm value of players like Mike Wallace, Percy Harvin or Desean Jackson who are often cited (rightly or wrongly) as one-dimensional. Lee Evans, who flashed seasons as a #1WR, may find himself at this point now.

Past WR #1's that are current WR#2/3 that are 30+:

Reggie Wayne (33), Brandon Lloyd (30), Anquan Boldin (31), Santana Moss (32), (dare I say Randy Moss (35)?)

And while not the topic of my current post, don't forget the aging top TE's of the past (Shannon Sharpe) and present, such as Tony Gonzalez (36), Antonio Gates (32) or Jason Witten (30). You typically only need one so let them anchor your TE slot while you unearth the next Graham or Gronkowski on your bench or as a flex.

 

[Sabertooth]

Randy Moss is so interesting. If he sticks, who knows? He is maybe the best athlete to ever play the position. He can be scooped off waivers in most leagues.

 

[grateful zed]

never count out T.O. love that guy.

 

[squistion]

I like what you are saying in theory, but I am not seeing it in practice. Now, it could be that the 8 leagues I play in are the exception, but the owners of most of the top players that you list are not willing to sell them at a discount. Those who have the current #1s you mentioned all seem to act if is they believe these players are still in their prime - can't get any discounts in trade offers so far...

Turning to the past #1 list, the asking price of those so far has been way above what I would pay. In one league I keep getting offers for Anquan Boldin and Reggie Wayne, but it is usually for my late round 1st pick or an up-and-coming RB like Kendall Hunter or Jacquizz Rodgers.

I think the only place you can expect to find old stud WRs at a discount will be in Dynasty startup drafts, where many will be distracted by all the shiny new toys of the incoming rookies and also players coming off of a breakout season who may not repeat.

 

[FUBAR]

I like what you are saying in theory, but I am not seeing it in practice. Now, it could be that the 8 leagues I play in are the exception, but the owners of most of the top players that you list are not willing to sell them at a discount. Those who have the current #1s you mentioned all seem to act if is they believe these players are still in their prime - can't get any discounts in trade offers so far...Turning to the past #1 list, the asking price of those so far has been way above what I would pay. In one league I keep getting offers for Anquan Boldin and Reggie Wayne, but it is usually for my late round 1st pick or an up-and-coming RB like Kendall Hunter or Jacquizz Rodgers.I think the only place you can expect to find old stud WRs at a discount will be in Dynasty startup drafts, where many will be distracted by all the shiny new toys of the incoming rookies and also players coming off of a breakout season who may not repeat.

as an owner of Welker and AJ, I'll confirm that it would take a different top 10 WR to get either from me. The offers I have received don't approach the value I place on them. Of course, it helps that I'm playing to win now.

 

[lbouchard]

Old no.1 WRs are an interesting case. Their trade value most likely won't approach their value to you. So most don't get traded. Although two days ago in my league, Welker and the 1.02 got traded for Demaryius and the 1.8. I thought guy getting Welker killed that deal.

 

[Carver]

never count out T.O. love that guy.

Why not?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Old no.1 WRs are an interesting case. Their trade value most likely won't approach their value to you. So most don't get traded. Although two days ago in my league, Welker and the 1.02 got traded for Demaryius and the 1.8. I thought guy getting Welker killed that deal.

Welker and Blackmon for Demaryius and the 1.8!!!Blackmon for Demaryius and the 1.8 seems fair.

 

[Pictus Cat]

It is interesting in dynasty that there seems to be an argument to put top 5 value on 15 - 25 players per position. Top 5 older but great, young and promising, and top 5 every shade between.

 

[Andrew74]

I like what you are saying in theory, but I am not seeing it in practice. Now, it could be that the 8 leagues I play in are the exception, but the owners of most of the top players that you list are not willing to sell them at a discount. Those who have the current #1s you mentioned all seem to act if is they believe these players are still in their prime - can't get any discounts in trade offers so far...Turning to the past #1 list, the asking price of those so far has been way above what I would pay. In one league I keep getting offers for Anquan Boldin and Reggie Wayne, but it is usually for my late round 1st pick or an up-and-coming RB like Kendall Hunter or Jacquizz Rodgers.I think the only place you can expect to find old stud WRs at a discount will be in Dynasty startup drafts, where many will be distracted by all the shiny new toys of the incoming rookies and also players coming off of a breakout season who may not repeat.

This is what I find as well. In most my trade discussions, the prices are crazy.

 

[Shutout]

I can second that AJ and Welker aren't being discounted. I own one of them so that decision is affected by being in a win now mode but the guy with Welker is a fringe playoff team (if all goes well) and, still, he isn't interested in moving them.

I'm not sure about the other guys.

The one guy I have seen moved alot in various leagues is Wayne. I think people have over though the negative side of last year and people are scooping him up. More times than not, I am seeing him traded for early 2nds and guys like LeShoure, Ryan Williams, etc. The deals look to makke sense based on who is getting and sending, overall.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

IMO this is usually only an option if you find a team that needs to rebuild. Contenders aren't moving these guys cheaply.

 

[johnadams]

I like what you are saying in theory, but I am not seeing it in practice. Now, it could be that the 8 leagues I play in are the exception, but the owners of most of the top players that you list are not willing to sell them at a discount. Those who have the current #1s you mentioned all seem to act if is they believe these players are still in their prime - can't get any discounts in trade offers so far...



Turning to the past #1 list, the asking price of those so far has been way above what I would pay. In one league I keep getting offers for Anquan Boldin and Reggie Wayne, but it is usually for my late round 1st pick or an up-and-coming RB like Kendall Hunter or Jacquizz Rodgers.

I think the only place you can expect to find old stud WRs at a discount will be in Dynasty startup drafts, where many will be distracted by all the shiny new toys of the incoming rookies and also players coming off of a breakout season who may not repeat.

I'm a bit confused by this. To me, getting Wayne for someone like Hunter and Rodgers IS the discount. During Wayne's peak, no way would an unproven second year back with big time ??s about their ability to even be a lead in an RBBC let alone anything approaching a RB2 or <gasp> RB1 get you Wayne. And a late first? Again, four years ago, getting someone like Wayne would cost at a minimum 2 first rounders. How much of a discount are people looking for?