*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (1 Viewer)

[Don't Toews Me]

In Ukraine, Russia is Beginning to Compound Advantages

By stretching Ukrainian forces along a wide front, Russia is overcoming the limitations of its undertrained army.

rusi.org

The Russian forces attacking Ukraine have now expanded to 510,000 troops. This means that Russia has established significant numerical superiority over the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Heavy losses among Russia’s officer corps and more capable units earlier in the war have reduced its capacity to conduct large-scale offensive ground manoeuvre. The Russians have been limited to conducting platoon and company attacks, rather than brigade or divisional operations, meaning that they rarely decisively overmatch Ukrainian defenders at any one location. With such overall numerical superiority, however, Russia has begun to turn this limitation to its advantage.

The front in Ukraine spans almost 1,200 km. Along Ukraine’s northern border, near Chernihiv, Russian sabotage groups continually probe Ukrainian positions. A large group of forces near Belgorod, meanwhile, has long threatened to push towards Sumy or Kharkiv, and has made its presence felt with fire. The main focus of Russian efforts has been in Donbas, but in the south Russian troops have also been skirmishing along the Zaporizhzhia front and have even conducted amphibious raids across the Dnipro. They have met with little success, but the breadth of their attacks has fixed Ukrainian troops on the line of contact and forced the AFU to spread out its artillery, expending munitions to break up successive Russian attacks. This dynamic has prevailed for the last four months.

Having stretched the Ukrainians out, the contours of the Russian summer offensive are easy to discern. First, there will be the push against Kharkiv. Ukraine must commit troops to defend its second largest city, and given the size of the Russian group of forces in the area, this will draw in reserves of critical materiel, from air defences to artillery. Second, Russia will apply pressure on the other end of the line, initially threatening to reverse Ukraine’s gains from its 2023 offensive, and secondly putting at risk the city of Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine should be able to blunt this attack, but this will require the commitment of reserve units.

Once Ukraine commits its reserves in these directions, the main effort will see the expansion of the Russian push in Donbas. This axis is already making slow but steady progress. The objective is clear: to cut Ukrainian supply lines connecting Kostiantynivka and Kramatorsk. The Russians hope that once Ukraine loses these roads that give the AFU localised interior lines, they will be able to push north and south, stranding Ukrainian artillery on one axis or the other. Russia’s aim is not to achieve a grand breakthrough, but rather to convince Ukraine that it can keep up an inexorable advance, kilometre by kilometre, along the front.

Compounding the challenge for the Ukrainian military is the deterioration of its air defences. The depletion of Ukrainian tactical surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems has already allowed the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) to make their presence felt, delivering hundreds of UMPK glide bombs against Ukrainian positions each month. As the VKS can push closer in against a diminished air threat, the accuracy and therefore the lethality of these strikes will increase. Able to strike behind Ukrainian lines, the Russians are using them to bombard and thereby depopulate Ukrainian towns. This fixes the AFU forwards, defending positions for as long as possible even as the tactical situation deteriorates.

The diminishing Ukrainian SAM coverage has had another pernicious consequence, however. Prior to the full-scale invasion, Russian forces had long envisaged a reconnaissance strike complex allowing their troops to accurately detect and destroy targets behind the front lines. For much of the war so far, this aspiration has been curtailed by robust Ukrainian air defences. Now, however, Ukraine is having to save its SAMs to deter Russian jets. The result is that Orlan-10 UAVs are now roaming far and wide over the front lines. They are routinely flying over both Kharkiv and Zapporizhzhia.

The growing density of Russian UAVs deep over Ukrainian positions is enabling Russia to set up dynamic strikes with operational tactical missile complexes like the 9M723 quasi-ballistic missile, or with long-range multiple launch rocket systems like the Tornado-S. In recent days Russia managed to strike a Ukrainian Buk air defence system and catch two Ukrainian helicopters on the ground while they refuelled. There have been other notable strikes of a kind that Russia has long aspired to but rarely successfully executed.

As SAM coverage shrinks, the Ukrainian military will face a very hard trade-off. It can continue to group air defences around critical national infrastructure such as power stations, or it can move them forwards to protect the front. The persistence of Russia’s long-range strike campaign means that not only is the front being stretched laterally, but it is also being extended in its depth.

The quicker that both SAMs and artillery ammunition reach Ukraine, the more slowly the AFU will be forced to cede ground. In the immediate fight, there is a direct correlation between the speed of supply from Ukraine’s international partners of artillery ammunition and air defence interceptors and the speed of deterioration at the front. So long as the AFU lacks sufficient means to blunt Russian attacks along its front, Russia will be able to force Ukraine to commit reserves and then exploit the axes left with insufficient troops and equipment. In other words, so long as Ukraine lacks materiel, Russia will begin to compound its advantages.

In the medium term, however, turning the present dynamic around is up to Ukraine and cannot be resolved by its international partners. Unless the AFU expands in size then it will continue to be overstretched. The AFU must not only replace losses in its existing units, but also raise enough units to manage their rotation on and off the line. This allows troops to be trained as well as the recovery of reserves. Mobilising personnel for these new units and ensuring that there is a training pipeline for them is a task that only the AFU can initiate.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Kofman and Lee's recent article:

Opinion | Russia Has Opened Up a New Front. What Comes Next?

Things for Ukraine are likely to get worse before they get better.

www.nytimes.com

Launching an offensive into the Kharkiv region, Russian forces quickly advanced several kilometers, managing to reoccupy several villages that were liberated during Ukraine’s successful offensive in September 2022. They have not yet reached the main line of defenses east of the city, which are held by brigades better equipped and more experienced than those closer to the border. But the situation is serious.
By threatening Ukraine’s second most populous city, Russia hopes to pin Ukrainian resources in the region, exposing the front elsewhere. Ukraine’s immediate priority is to stabilize the front line and prevent a major Russian breakthrough, which it may be able to do. But it is dealing with a series of challenges that have accumulated since last year and will not be quick to resolve. Despite the recent passing of the aid bill in Congress, which freed up billions in assistance for Kyiv, things are likely to get worse before they get better.
Russia’s aim is not to take Kharkiv, but to menace it by advancing toward the city and threatening it with artillery. While Russia lacks the forces to assault the city itself, the operation is designed to create a dilemma. Ukrainian forces are already stretched relatively thin; by drawing Ukraine’s reserves and better units to the defense of Kharkiv, the Russian attack weakens other parts of the front line. Russia remains focused on occupying the remainder of the Donetsk region in the east, looking to seize key transit hubs and population centers.

The Russian offensive comes at a time of vulnerability for Ukraine. Since last fall, the country has faced three interrelated problems: lack of ammunition, manpower and fortifications. Ukraine has made progress improving its fortifications over the spring, and the aid package from the United States should alleviate its ammunition shortages. But Ukraine’s manpower has continued to deteriorate especially where it counts: in its infantry.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive last summer culminated primarily because of attrition among its infantry, and it has struggled to replace those losses ever since. In practice, this means there are often too few soldiers manning trenches and not enough infantry to develop a sustainable rotation, risking exhaustion over time. This also creates a pernicious effect of discouraging others to volunteer. Many Ukrainian brigades are understrength, and many soldiers are over the age of 40.

To be clear, Ukraine is not out of men. The situation is the consequence of policy choices, a rickety mobilization system and many months of political intransigence before the recent passing of a series of mobilization laws. These laws aim to widen the pool of soldiers by lowering the draft eligibility age, punishing those who try to evade service, allowing some convicts to serve and providing incentives for volunteers. They hold the promise to address Ukraine’s manpower problem, but much will depend on how they are carried out. The situation, in any case, will take months to improve.

Lacking sufficient forces and with a deficit of ammunition, Ukraine’s military responds to Russian breakthroughs by moving its best brigades and elite units around the front. This firefighting approach, which happened during the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiika, means that the best units do not have enough time to rest and regenerate. Ukraine also resorts to deploying individual battalions piecemeal to reinforce parts of the front without the rest of their brigade. These are short-term solutions that come with longer-term consequences, as these units degrade over time.
In contrast, Russia managed to address its manpower problems last year and now recruits approximately 30,000 contract servicemen a month. Many of these recruits are hardly ideal soldiers and are also in their 40s. But this physical advantage — combined with artillery, drones and glide bomb strikes — has given Russia a quantitative edge.
Yet Russia’s advantages are not necessarily decisive. The quality of its forces, together with leadership losses, have limited Russia’s ability to conduct larger-scale operations — it’s why Russian forces struggle to turn advances into breakthroughs and have not been able to make more significant gains. Russia is also burning through equipment, most of which comes from storage, and will face equipment shortages in 2025.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1791105609342783556

Been speaking to a large number of Ukrainian military and civil society figures over the past days. The general consensus is that the situation on the front is going to get worse before it gets better.
A lot of blame can be laid on some of the ridiculous restrictions imposed on Ukraine by Western partners. But my sources also identified significant issues with command and control and basic competence in the Ukrainian military leadership.

NATO top commander says Russia has insufficient numbers for breakthrough in Kharkiv Oblast

Echoing comments from President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said earlier in the day that the situation in Kharkiv Oblast was "difficult" but "under control," General Christopher Cavoli expressed confidence that Ukraine would be able to withstand the assault.

kyivindependent.com

Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast do not have enough numbers to make a "strategic breakthrough" of Ukrainian defenses there, said General Christopher Cavoli, NATO's top commander in Europe, at a press conference on May 16.

Mobilisation from age 25 could add about 100,000 young fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, sources say

The mobilisation starting at the age of 25 could add approximately 100,000 young servicemen to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

www.pravda.com.ua

At the same time, sources in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine predict that the decision to conscript men starting at 25 years old could add approximately 100,000 young fighters to the Ukrainian military.

NATO does not know whether Russia has already launched its summer offensive

Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Commander of NATOâs Allied Forces Europe, cannot say whether the events in Kharkiv Oblast are the beginning of the previously announced âsummer offensiveâ of Russian troops in Ukraine.

www.pravda.com.ua

Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Commander of NATO's Allied Forces Europe, cannot say whether the events in Kharkiv Oblast are the beginning of the previously announced "summer offensive" of Russian troops in Ukraine.

Damage To Russia's Belbek Air Base In Crimea Seen After Ukrainian Strikes

Ukrainian attacks this week targeted a portion of the flightline at Belbek Air Base where Russian MiG-31 interceptors regularly park.

www.twz.com

Satellite imagery confirms that a portion of the flightline and adjacent areas at Russia's Belbek Air Base on the occupied Crimean peninsula were damaged in Ukrainian strikes this week. Russian MiG-31 Foxhound interceptors were observed in the same area of the installation just two weeks ago. Other parts of the base sustained damage, as well.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1791173383150833703

Frontelligence Insight conducted an initial Battle Damage Assessment of strikes on Belbek Airfield in Crimea on May 15th and 16th. This analysis is based on mid-resolution images taken on May 16th
2/Three large scorch marks are visible in the central part of the airfield: two on the military jet apron and one in the fuel depot area. The exact diameter of these marks cannot be determined due to low resolution, but they appear to be approximately over 30m in size.
3/ The imagery from July 2023 confirms that the apron was used to host military jets. Due to the resolution limitations, we cannot determine whether any aircraft were hit or destroyed, nor can we assess the level of damage, but we can conclude that missiles did reach the apron.
4/ The third scorch mark is visible within the fuel depot area. This likely explains the large, bright fire observed in videos taken by local residents, indicating the complete destruction of the depot. The extent of damage to nearby buildings cannot be determined at this stage
5/The characteristics and size of the scorch marks confirm that at least three missiles hit their targets. Damage from submunitions may not be visible at this resolution, and the actual damage could be more severe than what is visible in these images. High-res imagery is required

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1791163384798265626

"No change in policy [on Ukraine hitting Russian territory with US weapons." -@StateDeputySpox just now.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1791171049771450588

The Danish Ministry of Defence just announced a new massive single military aid package for Ukraine, worth 5.6 billion kroner ($816 million).

The bulk of funding will go towards procuring and maintaining air defense and artillery systems. Additional funds will go towards F-16s.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

'The world's fault': Zelenskyy speaks out amid Russian assault

ABC News had an exclusive interview with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday.

abcnews.go.com

“All we need are two Patriot systems,” he said. “Russia will not be able to occupy Kharkiv if we have those.”

Inside the evacuation of Vovchansk, epicentre of Russia’s new offensive

Civilians already fled this town near Kharkiv once, now they’re having to do it again. How much more of 2022 will repeat itself in Ukraine?

www.thetimes.co.uk

Despite the difficulties, on the right flank of Vovchansk, an assault force of battle-hardened fighters from the Ares battalion of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army has stopped the Russians, and is now regrouping to help in the town itself.
The unit has seen some of the most bruising fighting of the past 18 months. They were key players during last summer’s counteroffensive, when they captured the village of Staromaiorske in a bruising battle with its Russian defenders.
Along with other assault and special forces units, they have been rushed to the Kharkiv region to hold the line. “We can say that since yesterday, we have stopped them in our direction,” Stepan, the battalion’s deputy commander, said on Tuesday.
“I cannot say that they have lost all their strength, but we have stopped their attacks. Maybe they are just gathering forces, maybe they are amassing. Of course, their artillery is working. The artillery will work for a long time.”
His battalion had been involved in cross-border attacks inside Russia’s neighbouring Belgorod region, he revealed.

Stepan said his men had to build their own trenches when they arrived at the end of April. “Everything happened very quickly. We built dugouts and set up mortars in about three days. Why were these positions not built already? They said it was difficult to create strong defensive lines because it was close to the border. I have my own opinions about this,” he said, choosing his words carefully.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia ramps up strike drone use on Kharkiv front, Ukrainian artillery crew says

Ukrainian artillery on the Kharkiv frontline are facing a bigger threat than ever from Russia’s fleet of Lancet kamikaze drones, according to a howitzer crew fighting there.
“One comes, then a second one comes, 10 minutes later a third one comes," said call sign Artist, the fresh-faced 21-year-old commander of an artillery battery of the 42nd Brigade which has been firing non-stop to repel Russia's new offensive in the region over the past week.
The soldiers requested that they only be referred to by their military call signs to protect their identities.
The drone, with X-shaped wings and carrying several kilograms of explosive, was already one of the biggest threats to Ukrainian artillery and armour for over a year.
However, the crew of the Soviet-era self-propelled 2S1 Gvozdika howitzer that Reuters spoke to had never seen anything close to the number of Lancets flying in the skies of the Kharkiv region, despite having seen plenty of service on several of the most intense parts of the frontline.

Samuel Bendett, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank, told Reuters he was tracking more mentions of Lancet strikes recently on pro-Russian social media channels.
Strike drones like Lancets work alongside reconnaissance drones, whose cameras find targets. The Gvozdika crew said there was now scarcely a moment when they did not have aerial eyes in the sky nearby, searching for them.
“At any moment there might be anything from one to five (various) drones in the air,” Artist said, referring to only his howitzer battery’s immediate vicinity – across the front that number is far higher.
He said the Lancets were now nosediving at extreme speed from several hundred metres in the air into their targets.
On the road that day, Reuters correspondents saw a stark reminder of the drone's destructive ability when they passed the burnt carcass of a Ukrainian tank which had been hit by a Lancet only the day before, its ammunition scattered everywhere.

In such a charged atmosphere, even the sound of bumblebees and hornets can produce a flinch if briefly mistaken for the sound of a large reconnaissance drone, some of which have petrol engines.
Both Russia and Ukraine have declared drones a priority for development in the war, but Moscow's much deeper pockets appear to have given it a serious advantage in production volumes of larger strike drones such as Lancets.
However, despite the drone threat, the Ukrainian crew say they have still been able to lay down serious amounts of fire on the attacking Russian forces.
Artist said the five howitzers in his battery have fired about a thousand shots at the Russians since the start of Moscow’s offensive in the northern Kharkiv region a week ago.
That is in contrast to the strict shell rationing recounted by some crews on the eastern frontline of late.
Callsign Lev, a 39-year-old senior battery sergeant, contrasted it to their last deployment near Chasiv Yar, one of deadliest parts of Ukraine's eastern front.
"Before, when we were in Chasiv Yar, there was a bit of a deficit... now we have more (shells), but we always want more and more," said Lev, a baritone-voice 39-year-old.
He added the Russians had attacked with pockets of infantry ranging from about five to 20.
Those assaults were initially backed by large amounts of armoured vehicles, he said, although the number of these deployed by the Russians had dropped in the last couple of days – something the artilleryman suggested was linked to the high vehicle losses they had taken during the initial assault.
“We knew they would attack, but as always they are pressing us with infantry,” Lev said.

Scrambles of NATO jets against Russian aircraft up more than 20%, source says

Scrambles of NATO jets to intercept Russian aircraft approaching allied airspace over the Baltic Sea region went up 20% to 25% in the first quarter of 2024, a NATO source said on Thursday, with the increased Russian activity likely due to a hike in NATO drills.
The source declined to give a concrete figure for the number of Russian military flights encountered close to NATO territory.
Last year, NATO said allied fighter jets took off over 300 times to intercept Russian military aircraft, with most of the incidents occurring over the Baltic.

Since then, however, NATO has noticed a change in the mix of Russian aircraft spotted close to allied territory, the source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters.
Unlike in the past, Western pilots these days barely detect any Russian fighter jets or strategic bombers approaching allied airspace, and most intercepts now involve surveillance aircraft or sometimes transport planes, the source said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

AP gets rare look as Ukraine tries to slow Russia with drones on new front

From the sky, the Ukrainian drone unit commander had a bird’s-eye view of Russia’s renewed offensive playing out in the country’s war-ravaged northeast.

apnews.com

Enemy forces have captured a string of Ukrainian villages over the past few days after opening a new front along the border with the Russian region of Belgorod. In the village of Strilecha, long depopulated due to its proximity to the border, a Russian infantry unit rolled in with ease, said one drone operator.

“I saw that the infantry just walked into the village,” said Borchik. “There were a lot of them.” Members of the unit spoke on the condition that only their call signs be used in line with Ukrainian military protocols.
In many other places this week, Russian troops were locked in intense battles with Ukrainian soldiers.

“This is just the beginning,” said Manul, the call sign of the Ukrainian drone operator. The AP team was allowed to spend time with the drone unit on condition that the exact location not be revealed.

When it came time to launch the offensive, Moscow knew Ukrainian forces would be spread desperately thin and have to rotate in units fighting heavy battles in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, known as the Donbas.

“We lack the infantry. Not many people mobilize,” Borchik said. “We are running out of people and crews need to be replenished.”

“Plus, the Russians have information. I don’t know how, but it’s being leaked when one brigade leaves and a new one enters. And in that moment the Russians storm in,” he said.
That was how Russian forces captured the Donetsk settlement of Ocheretyne last month. Moscow’s troops capitalized on the moment between one brigade’s departure and another’s entry, when the line is at its weakest.

With 50,000-70,000 troops amassed in the Belgorod direction, nowhere near enough to seize Kharkiv region, it is clear to Ukrainian commanders that the operation seeks to divert their forces from other parts of the frontline.

“It will significantly complicate things,” he said.

Borchik is now waiting to see what countermeasures the Russians will deploy to evade their drones.

Moscow has gained the upper hand by using electronic warfare to neutralize Ukrainian craft.

“I think they will use radio-electronic warfare here … so that we fly less,” he said. “And they will look for ways to further drag out more reserves.”
Russian troops are deploying new frequencies to evade Ukrainian jammers, while finding other ways to muffle Ukrainian drone frequencies. Recently, Russian troops unveiled tanks equipped with a shell-like contraption, ostensibly to protect it from marauding suicide drones.

“Destroying such equipment is much more difficult,” said Borchik.

Soldiers in the Donbas resist despite relentless Russian drone attacks

Ukrainian fighters are adapting to survive the chaos of the attacks in a conflict in which the emergence of unmanned aerial vehicles has changed the rules of the game.

www.lemonde.fr

Without ever losing his smile, captain "Sid," deputy commander of the 1st battalion of the 5th assault brigade, made no secret of the challenges his fighters have been facing since the Russian army's new surge in the Donbas. "The sky is filled with drones, day and night. It's no longer trench warfare. Now we're basically buried and only come out of our shelters to fight back Russian assaults," said the Ukrainian officer who, like other interviewees, is identified by his nom de guerre. "We only rotate two men at a time. Movement has become impossible."
In the first week of May, the situation was the same near both the Chassiv Yar front with the 5th assault brigade and the Avdiivka front with the 24th airborne brigade. In addition to its conquests of Bakhmut in 2023 and Avdiivka this year, the Russian army has persistently regained the initiative. The Ukrainian government, which laments the far too slow pace of arms deliveries from allied countries, has been hammering this point home in recent months. This breaks from their traditional communication efforts aimed at maintaining the country's morale.
Infantry private "Pilot" recently returned from five days on the front line. "The position is better protected than it used to be," he explained. Before 2024, Ukrainian forces hardly fortified their defensive lines, unlike the Russian army, known for building properly buried fortifications. "More than being there and fighting, the most dangerous thing is actually getting there and back," Pilot continued. "Rocket and drone attacks are relentless."
"Chechen," so named "because of my beard and dark skin, with no Caucasian origins," explained the soldier, who had also just returned from six days' combat. A highly experienced combatant, he was not impressed by the Russian forces' pressure around Chassiv Yar. "The situation is more or less business as usual. Their drones fire stuff at us and we hold the line..."

Sid called Chechen "one of the 1st battalion's best fighters." The soldier said he "shares [his] experience with newly mobilized recruits." The captain recognized that, compared with the volunteers who joined two years ago, "there aren't many highly motivated people left" in Ukrainian society. According to him, "some come not trusting command," afraid of being sacrificed for a village in the Donbas they've never heard of. However, he claims to be able to "turn them into combatants in two or three weeks."
"Tykhi" and "Alabay," two soldiers from the "mortar group," also noted that "the newcomers are probably not as motivated as the first wave volunteers," but Tykhi pointed out that "once they're on the front line, they adapt. And there's no divide between the old and the new."
Many of the soldiers we met said this motivation gap did not prevent camaraderie and trust, which – along with luck – are the only guarantees of survival in such a harsh war.
"Delphin," the battalion's chief of the staff, offered a more critical analysis. "We've got guys coming in from the weight rooms convinced they've come to be part of the victory, not realizing what it means to be a soldier." The officer blamed this on the government and its "misguided propaganda" after the first Russian defeats, which led some to believe that the war would be short and victories easy.

Behind the Avdiivka front, southeast of Pokrovsk, a tank crew from the 24th airborne brigade hid their T-80 tank in a thicket. Here, too, the scale of the war has recently changed, with a clear increase in Russian attacks. "I've had more fire orders on direct targets in a month than in the previous two years," said Commander "Italianiets," whose nom de guerre ("the Italian") comes from the years he spent in the Neapolitan region.
The three men of the crew – the commander, "Shurik," the driver-mechanic, and "Uzver," the gunner – described the intensity of the battle. "There are places where there are daily Russian assaults," said Italianiets. "As soon as our drones transmit coordinates to our command, we get the order to get out of a thicket, book it, shoot and quickly go back into hiding," said the officer. Their goal then becomes evading the drones and artillery until the next sortie. When no direct target has been located but "just a column of dust on the horizon," the crew is ordered to go and track down the enemy on the move. Again, very quickly, before the drones spot them.

Such is the daily, grueling war in the Donbas. From a tactical point of view, one officer, S., confirmed the difficult nature of the situation. "On one flank, if we lose Chasiv Yar, the battlefield will move to Kostiantynivka, and the Russian army will threaten both the Sloviansk-Bakhmut road and the road to Kramatorsk. On the other flank, if they keep advancing from Avdiivka, they will threaten the Pokrovsk-Bakhmut road and attack Pokrovsk. That would mean we've fought 10 years for nothing in the Donbas..."

Major O., a senior officer who wished to remain anonymous, has a more comprehensive overview of the status quo than the officers on the front. He believes that "the Russians do not have the capacity to advance on multiple fronts at the same time" and that "the influx of new Western weapons and ammunition will change a lot of things." "War is increasingly less about two enemies seeing and shooting at each other; it's about preventing the enemy from carrying out his plans by attacking him deep behind the front," explained O. "And these weapons are going to allow us to do that."
Nor is he worried about Russia's technological adaptation after Ukraine's initial display of greater creativity. "The reality is that neither Russia nor Ukraine were ready for such a change in the nature of the conflict and for the development of technological warfare. Nor was Europe, for that matter. In fact, no country in the world had yet had to fight this kind of war. Now, everyone is adapting and making progress."
O. now sees war as both "a chess game" and "a mathematical problem" ruled by "intelligence and technology." "Drones change everything," he said, as "every position is targeted." Although he acknowledged that the Russians have been making some progress this year because "they tolerate a level of losses that Ukraine can't afford," he no longer believes in trench warfare as it was fought in the Donbas or in any kind of positional warfare. "From now on, war will be mobile. Every position will be destroyed. Everything static," concluded the officer, "is already dead."

 

[themeistersinger]

Crimea Satellite Images Show Aftermath of 'Massive' ATACMS Strike

MSN

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US Says Drone Strikes on Russia Hurt Fuel Supplies But Not Power

Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure earlier this year disrupted 14% of the country’s oil refining capacity and drove up domestic fuel prices, but had minimal impact on electricity output, the Pentagon’s intelligence agency said.
The loss of some Russian refining capacity pushed up domestic prices 20% to 30% by mid-March and triggered an export halt to focus on meeting domestic demand, according to an assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which was summarized in a report released Thursday by the inspector general overseeing US aid to Ukraine.
“To mitigate the impact of these strikes, Russia banned gasoline exports for six months starting in March, began importing refined product from Belarus, planned to import from Kazakhstan, and prioritized shipments of petroleum products by Russian Railways, as opposed to other means of transportation,” the report said.

While the attacks are still ongoing, the DIA analysis covers only a two-month period — from the first strike Jan. 21, on Novatek PJSC’s Ust-Luga plant, until a March 24 attack on a power plant in Novocherkassk.
Attacks on power facilities “have resulted in a negligible disruption of electricity to the Russian military and civilian population” because “Russia has a robust generation capacity — the third largest in the world — and a high degree of redundancy in its grid.”

Russia has advanced 10km towards Kharkiv, says Ukraine

Kyiv claims its forces have ‘stabilised’ Kremlin assault as it launches a massive drone counterstrike

www.ft.com

Russia has advanced 10km from the border with Ukraine towards the city of Kharkiv, Kyiv said, but added that its own forces had “stabilised” the Kremlin’s assault as it launched a massive drone counterstrike.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia’s forces had reached the first of three defensive lines protecting Ukraine’s second-largest city after a week-long offensive but pointed out that the advance was now blocked.
“Today, our defence forces have stabilised the Russians where they are located,” Zelenskyy said after visiting Kharkiv on Thursday. “The deepest point of their advance is 10km.”
The city of Kharkiv, about 35km from the border, has been targeted by a new Russian offensive partly intended to draw resources from the eastern Donetsk region, which Moscow has repeatedly said it wants to capture.
“We understand that there will be tough battles ahead and the enemy is preparing for it,” said General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s top commander, adding that Russia had so far failed to break through Ukraine’s defences.

Give Ukraine long-range missiles to hit Russian targets, German minister says

Amid heavy Russian attacks on Kharkiv, the West must send long-distance missiles, said Annalena Baerbock.

www.politico.eu

Ukraine’s armed forces need more long-range weapons to be able to hit targets deep behind the frontline, Germany’s foreign minister has said, as Russia makes gains on the battlefield.

Speaking on the sidelines of a meeting of European foreign ministers in Strasbourg, Annalena Baerbock described the military situation in north-east Ukraine as “highly dramatic” amid reports that Vladimir Putin’s forces are making significant advances of up to 10 kilometers in one place.

She said it is important to provide weapons “that can be used over medium and long distances” — a remark likely to be seen as putting more pressure on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to supply Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles. These weapons are more effective than counterparts supplied by Britain and France in targeting reinforced bunkers and bridges but Scholz has so far ruled out sending them to Kyiv.

“We are also working with other partners on this,” Baerbock said, adding that the Ukrainians are in an “extremely difficult situation.”

Top NATO Commander Warns of 'Big Russia Problem for Years to Come'

Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, warned that Russia would remain an enduring threat to NATO.

www.airandspaceforces.com

Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, head of U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, warned that Russia would remain an enduring threat to NATO and global security, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

“No matter how it works out after the war in Ukraine is concluded … I believe Russia will pose a long-term threat to the alliance, we will have a big Russia problem for years to come,” Cavoli said at an Atlantic Council event on May 17.

While Russia has deployed refurbished, older model weapons that are “not as high quality” during the conflict, Cavoli noted the Kremlin’s rapid reconstitution of military might in quantity as cause for concern. Pentagon estimates suggest Russia has suffered about 315,000 casualties since the beginning of the war, and 20 of its medium-to-large Navy vessels have been sunk, destroyed, or damaged since 2022. Nevertheless, Cavoli noted that the Russian army in Ukraine is now larger than it was at the beginning of the conflict, and it will continue to swiftly replenish its losses post-war.

“Russia will be on track to expand the size of its military, it has already announced its plans to do so,” said Cavoli. “It has ramped up industrial production and manpower intake in order to achieve these goals. It will be arrayed in the western parts of Russia and associated nations, perhaps on the borders with NATO, and it will be a large force.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine stages long-range attacks on targets in Crimea and southern Russia, source says

Ukraine attacked a power substation in Russian-occupied Crimea, an oil depot and railway station in Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and an oil refinery in the port town of Tuapse overnight, a Kyiv intelligence source told Reuters.

Friday's strikes were a joint operation conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the HUR military intelligence agency, the source added.
Ukraine launched drones at a refinery in Tuapse, which was already being repaired following an earlier strike, according to the source. "After the new explosions, they will have to start repairs again," the source said.

Ukraine braces for heavy battles as Putin says Russia carving out 'buffer zone'

Russia is staging its heaviest assaults in the eastern Donetsk region, according to data compiled by the Ukrainian General Staff, which said the Pokrovsk front had faced the most regular assaults in recent days.
Syrskyi said Ukrainian forces were also preparing defensive lines for a possible Russian assault on the Sumy region, which would mark another front more than 100 km to the north of Kharkiv.
Kyiv says Russia has small units of forces near the Sumy region.
"We note that the actions (of Russian forces) are systematic," said Volodymyr Artiukh, head of the Sumy region's military administration.
"Shelling continues, in fact, along the entire border, with an intensity of 200-400 explosions per day... The intensity of enemy sabotage groups has increased," he said.

Podcast here with Rob Lee: Russia Launches New Offensive in Ukraine

Kiviselg: Russians' actions do not indicate intention to invade Kharkiv City

The Russian forces' offensive in Kharkiv oblast indicates the creation of a buffer zone, not an intention to attack Kharkiv City in order to take it, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center.

news.err.ee

The Russian forces' offensive in Kharkiv oblast indicates the creation of a buffer zone, not an intention to attack Kharkiv City in order to take it, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center.

Kiviselg said that battle continued along the entire front, with approximately 140 attacks every day. The majority of action is focused north and east of the front in the oblasts of Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk.

"Although the pace of operations is slowing down and the enemy's actions indicate an intention to establish a buffer zone, the armed forces of the Russian Federation have continued to promote the newly opened offensive line in Kharkiv. To achieve this, the Russian Federation's armed forces have attacked and destroyed key bridges in the Vovchansk region to create natural obstacles between themselves and the Ukrainian armed forces," Kiviselg said.

"This signals the area's fortification rather than the creation of a beachhead for a further assault on Kharkiv," he said.

Kiviselg said that Russian units were able to penetrate to a depth of up to eight kilometers, within the range of Russian artillery fire. As a result, Ukraine has not been able to establish a defense system closer than 10 to 20 kilometers and important defense points closer than three to five kilometers from the border.

"The north of Kharkiv City operation direction still aims to stop the Ukrainian reserve forces from moving forward and to support the offensive from the Donetsk direction," he said.

"The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have about 2,000 people engaged in direct combat in the direction of Kharkiv, in addition to 1,500 to 2,000 reserve troops. There are up to 35,000 Russian troops in the entire region, and this number is likely to increase in the near future. But it is unlikely that Russia would concentrate 300,000 troops in the region, which, according to various estimates, is the minimum military force needed to take Kharkiv," Kiviselg said.

Kiviselg said that in other areas, the Russian Federation Armed Forces are continuing the offensive at the same pace, expanding the controlled territory with small tactical advances. The Pokrovsk offensive around Ocheretyne and the pressure on Chasiv Yar are the main foci of fighting.

In the southern part of the front, in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, fighting continues in Robotyne village, but the Ukrainian defense there remains intact. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have also maintained the bridgehead over the Dnieper River.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Thread: https://x.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1791471761055228149

The Kharkiv offensive has been ongoing for a week. Russia had some initial success, but Ukraine has been able to restrain Russian forces from advancing deeper.

There are many narratives and claims surrounding the situation. First, why was Russia able to advance so quickly? 1/
"Digital scanning" of the border area is almost continuous. The Russian air reconnaissance, electronic warfare and strike teams and are active in many areas. This made it difficult for Ukraine to prepare heavy defences or to concentrate a large amount of troops at the border. 2/
For Ukraine, the reasonable option was to use the depth to their advantage, as they did. A few kilometres from the border, the Russians can rely less on prepared positions and other infrastructure on Russian territory, and they have to bring their supporting elements forward. 3/
At the moment the Russians are attacking towards Lyptsi and trying to push through Vovchansk. In Lyptsi, a long chain of villages begins, which would force the Russians to fight through over 17 km of built areas. Vovchansk is a logistical chokepoint. 4/
Losing Vovchansk would be unfortunate for Ukraine, but in the big picture this direction bears very limited strategic meaning. Russia could capture large areas, for example such as in this map, without actually altering the general strategic situation radically. 5/
The Lyptsi direction is more threatening, but RUS has to make significant progress to even get Kharkiv city on rocket artillery range. The initial push was reportedly made with a force of around five battalions, but as RUS wants to go further, it needs to commit more forces. 6/
Russian goals:

One of the likely key objectives is to tie Ukraine's reserves for this “secondary” direction. The attack forces Ukraine to react by moving troops to the north, which in turn creates better conditions for Russia to advance in, for example, the Donetsk region. 7/
Another objective, which Russians have spoken about, is creating a buffer zone between Belgorod and Ukraine.

This zone could shield Russian territory from AFU raids, which have usually been conducted by Russian volunteer units from Kharkiv region towards Belgorod. 8/
However, as Russia has been able to penetrate as far as 8 km from the border, they may want to reinforce success. Russia can bring in more forces without significantly undermining their capabilities to continue offensives in Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk directions. 9/
The worst case scenario would be a situation where Russians could get Kharkiv on tube artillery range. This would set the stage for future operations to take over the entire city. However, at the moment they don’t have enough forces in the area to capture the city of Kharkiv. 10/
In the best case scenario, Ukraine is able to stabilize the front without overcommitting their reserves and maybe even push the Russians back a bit, once the attacker is attrited. However, a counterattack to remove Russia completely from the north Kharkiv region is unlikely. 11/
This is Russia's most significant activation in the northern Kharkiv region since the beginning of the war. There are some unclear aspects which may alter the success of the defender, like the quality of Ukrainian fortifications and other defensive preparations. 12/
Further reading: A more detailed breakdown of the current attacking forces can be found here by our group member @Inkvisiit. He has done a great job at following the Russian ORBAT in Kharkiv. 13/

Video: CNN rides along with evacuation unit in Ukraine as Russia advances on town

Video: https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1791429930728718593

️A new and effective tactic implemented by the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade: first, a ground drone drives onto the roof of the enemy dugout and performs a controlled detonation, as a result of which a hole appears in the dugout, into which the FPV drone is then launched. Such actions make it possible to effectively destroy enemy dugouts "below zero" along with its population.

Podcast: https://x.com/WarInstitute/status/1791466198577623443

"AI remains a key element in [the] Russian military's thinking about modern and future combat, especially Russia's version of what we in the West call 'net-centric warfare.'"

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According to Ukrainian media Liga, Zelensky said today that "none of the brigades are complaining about the lack of artillery shells. This has been the case for the past two months." This is out of touch with reality and a result of positive reporting promotion in the top brass

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Seeing more such claims on Russian Telegrams: “Our team is about to launch production of drones with AI. It is a targeting system that will counter EW and automatically lock on to a target even after losing contact with the operator. Soon, we plan to test the first drones we assembled.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Second Russian invasion of Kharkiv caught Ukraine unprepared

Russia’s new offensive across Ukraine’s northeastern border had been expected for months — yet it still surprised the Ukrainian soldiers stationed there to defend against it.
Ukraine’s 125th Territorial Defense Brigade — stretched thin along a roughly 27-mile stretch of the Kharkiv region’s border with Russia — used reconnaissance drones to monitor, daily, how Moscow was steadily building up forces for a possible attack. But the morning it happened, May 10, the brigade lost all its video feeds due to Russian electronic jamming.
Its Starlink devices — satellite internet the Ukrainian military relies on for basic communication — failed, the first time it was knocked out completely for them since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
“We were left at a certain point completely blind,” said a drone unit commander in the brigade. The Post agreed to identify him by his call sign, Artist, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol.
“This was the biggest problem, we didn’t see how they were moving, we only worked through radio or through phones where they still worked,” Artist, a 53-year-old sergeant, said. The drone feeds, he said, “simply disappeared.”
Within days, the Russians had captured — for the second time — some 50 square miles of territory along the border, capitalizing on a moment of particular vulnerability for Ukraine’s military.

A U.S. aid package, including funding for precious ammunition for artillery and air defense, stalled in Congress for more than six months before it was approved last month, leaving forces on the front line often unable to fire back as their positions were pummeled.
Meanwhile, despite military personnel complaining for months of personnel shortages and extreme fatigue among troops who have been fighting for more than two years, the government in Kyiv has been slow to ramp up mobilization, leaving some areas of the front critically understaffed.
But Russia’s battlefield gains in recent days were not only a result of Ukrainian shortfalls.
Begrudgingly, Ukrainian troops admit that their enemy has gotten smarter and adapted, especially with technological advancements such as electronic warfare — a sharp contrast with the first year of the invasion, when Russia’s own blunders and overconfidence allowed the Ukrainians to hold key cities and later liberate large swaths of territory in successful counteroffensives.
The new Russian advances, in Kharkiv and in the neighboring Donetsk region, have prompted questions about the viability of Ukraine’s defense — not only if Kyiv can fulfill its promise of expelling all invaders, but also if Russia will soon overpower Ukraine’s forces and seize more territory.
The latest assault on the Kharkiv border has forced Ukraine to redirect some reserves north, potentially imperiling other positions.
Even as they watched the Russians building up forces, Artist, the drone commander in the 125th Brigade, said the Ukrainians were largely unable to construct the kind of fortified defense lines now being emphasized by the government and by military commanders.

The Russians’ own layered web of “dragon’s teeth” antitank pyramid blocks, mines and concrete-reinforced trenches proved effective against Ukraine’s disappointing southeastern counteroffensive last summer.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky even visited the Kharkiv border in April to inspect the newly reinforced defenses. But Artist and other soldiers said that every time the units stationed here tried to build fortified lines, the Russians — using their own reconnaissance drones — would monitor their activity and fire on them.
Excavators and other engineering equipment were needed but not brought in because it would have been easily destroyed by the Russians.
Especially with the U.S. aid lagging, Ukrainian soldiers said they lacked the means to fire back and give themselves the time to build stronger defenses. The Ukrainians were also prohibited by the White House from using U.S.-provided weapons to strike Russia despite the Russians firing at them from across the border.
Artist said that soldiers in his unit would dig with shovels at night. “We tried to do what we could, but it’s not the same,” he said.
“Because the soil is very heavy here, it’s machines that can dig through that and machinery that can install concrete fortifications,” he added. “We weren’t able to do that. Ammunition, artillery could have protected us. … People would’ve been able to work in those moments. But sadly, we have wasted a lot. More than half a year has been wasted because we weren’t able to do this.”

Russia chose points of attacks smartly, moving between rivers that could be used for natural cover.
The assault on Vovchansk, a small city that Russian troops have already breached, could give Russia a lane to move toward Kupyansk, a city liberated by Ukrainian forces in September 2022. A second flank of the attack, toward the village of Lyptsi, could put Moscow’s forces in range to shell Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

The scale and goal of Russia’s new offensive in Kharkiv remain murky, but experts say, at this stage, that capturing Kharkiv city is out of reach, partly because of Russia’s own soldier shortages. Russia has ramped up recruitment of contract soldiers and significantly boosted sign-up bonuses for men willing to fight — up to nearly $10,000 in some regions, roughly 15 times more than the median salary.
“Russia has resourced this as a limited incursion for a ‘buffer zone’, rather than an attempt to occupy the entirety of Kharkiv all at once,” said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “However, this may be phase one of a larger long-term plan.”
The buffer zone is intended to protect Russia’s Belgorod region, which is adjacent to Kharkiv, from repeated Ukrainian strikes. It’s one of the few areas in Russia where residents feel the persistent, direct impact of a war that has destroyed Ukrainian cities and displaced millions.
Speaking from China during a state visit Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself said the operation was only to create buffer zone to protect Belgorod after repeated attacks on the city. “As for Kharkiv, there are no such plans as of today.”
The Russian troops fighting in Kharkiv region appear to be drawn from new units that were trained or regenerated from inside Russia, Massicot said, adding that Russia’s priority remains capturing the Donetsk region. Notably, Moscow has not withdrawn forces from Donetsk to support the new offensive in Kharkiv, she said.
Ukraine, however, had to send reinforcements from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions to repel the assaults in Kharkiv. One of the redirected brigades — the National Guard’s Khartia — now has units stationed on the border.

Khartia’s commander, Col. Ihor Obolyenskyi, said Russian troops attempted to storm his soldier’s positions six times on Wednesday. “That’s only on one site,” he said.
In a tactic similar to one Russian forces used to capture the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut last year, groups of infantry have attacked in waves. But the groups now have more than 15 soldiers, Obolyenskyi said — twice as many as in Bakhmut.
“Previously, they walked and stretched, three people each, and made small attacks,” he said. “Now they are making big advances. Twenty people each try to run in, try to throw grenades.”
The Russians also drop glide bombs, sometimes weighing half a ton, every 15 to 20 minutes, said the commander of a reconnaissance unit in Khartia whom The Post is identifying by his call sign, Navigator. Unlike missiles, the bombs themselves can’t be intercepted by air defense once they’re dropped from Russian aircraft. This is one reason Ukrainians have pleaded for F-16 fighters, which would be able to challenge the encroaching bombers.
The frequent airstrikes mean Ukrainian forces must constantly change their positions by at least 1,000 feet, sometimes multiple times per a day. If they’re spotted, a bomb will surely follow. Navigator said that before a strike, a Russian drone with electronic warfare capabilities will fly over the area to disrupt communications.
“I think they’re going to try to get as far as they can here until they’re stopped,” Navigator said. “And if they get entrenched, then it’ll be with concrete fortifications. And from our experience, we know they’re quite good at doing that. They very quickly build their defense lines, so we’ll do everything we can to prevent them.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Thread: https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1791553886722859130

Frontlines Situation Report - May 17th, 2024

The frontline situation remains challenging. Russian forces intensified attacks in the Bakhmut area and advanced tactically in the Kharnohorivka and Kharkiv areas. Despite this, the frontline remains relatively stable

Thread
2/ Chasiv Yar

Despite initial successes in the assault on Chasiv Yar, including reaching and occasionally crossing the canal with small groups, the Russians failed to establish a foothold. Lately, they've increased the use of armored fighting vehicles to advance.
3/ The situation south of Bakhmut is more complex. Russians attempted to advance toward Klischiivka with frequent and large assaults. While most of these attacks have been repelled, it's unlikely that these attempts will cease soon, posing a continued risk to Klishchiivka
4/ Kharkiv region

Our team thinks that the frontline is not stable, albeit with no signs of collapse. Russian troops try to infiltrate forests and buildings further south to establish a foothold. However, we're skeptical about their ability to advance deeply for several reasons
5/ Initially, Russian troops dispersed infantry forces along the border, but supplying them became difficult as they moved deeper into Ukrainian territory. To push south, they need to extend logistics, which is challenging with Ukrainian brigades redeployed into the area
6/ Without fully equipped mechanized units, achieving swift and decisive penetration of defenses is almost impossible. This limitation is likely to lead to slower advances (if any), hindering the overall progress of Russian forces, unless new units will be introduced.
7/ Kurakhove-Krasnohorivka area

The situation is difficult, with Russian forces advancing in Krasnohorivka. They may try to reach Kurakhivka, aiming to cut off Kurakhove's logistical routes. However, rapid advances by Russian forces are unlikely due to defenses and geography.
8/ Chernihiv area

Over the past month, our team has monitored Russian forces near Chernihiv oblasts. While no significant invasion force is seen near Chernihiv Oblast, localized incursions across the border may extend the frontline and compel Ukrainian troop redeployment.
9/ Sumy area

While we can't estimate the current force numbers, they are larger than those near the Chernihiv oblast. We also see what seems like demonstrative actions, possibly exaggerating troop presence. The threat of another border incursion into Sumy Oblast is
very real.
10/ The overall goal likely remains the same: to force Ukrainian reserve redeployment from Donbas. Yet, we haven't seen significant deployment of new large Russian reserves to Donbas intending to turn the tide. This doesn't rule out such deployments in the future, but not yet

Tough read:

Ukrainian soldiers in Donbas are fed up waiting for Western munitions

Neither the shells included in the 'Czech plan' announced this winter, nor those tied to US aid approved at the end of April, have reached the front line, undermining the morale of Ukrainian troops.

www.lemonde.fr

On the Donbas front, the impact of these political statements is minimal, drowned out by the din of Russian shells, missiles and bombs. Pinned down in a defensive position and desperately short of ammunition, Ukrainian soldiers fire only the bare minimum to repel attacks. The "firing ratio" – the number of shots exchanged across the front in military jargon – has never been so unfavorable to the Ukrainians, who fire an average of 12 times fewer explosive projectiles (shells, missiles, rockets and bombs) than their Russian invaders.

Le Monde interviewed soldiers from five different brigades deployed on the Donbas front, where the fiercest fighting is taking place. All confirmed that neither the munitions linked to the "Czech plan" – 800,000 rounds announced this winter – nor those linked to the US aid package voted on April 20 had reached them. "We read the news, but we're realistic. We only rely on what we actually have on hand," explained Maksym (who gave only his first name, like the other people interviewed), 28 and a senior sergeant in the 59th brigade.

Leaning on a crutch, he wistfully watched a training session of some 15 men from his brigade, not far from Pokrovsk, 20 kilometers from the front. Hidden under the treetops, recruits fired their assault rifles and launched grenades. "We're not short of ammunition for the firearms," continued the non-commissioned officer. "But we're short of everything else: drones, anti-drone jammers, shells, missiles... And what we're seeing is that deliveries continue to decline and are becoming increasingly erratic. They only cover the bare minimum." He recounted how his right leg suffered multiple fractures following the explosion of a grenade dropped by an enemy drone. Like many wounded soldiers, he became an instructor.

"We're suffering heavy losses due to the lack of drones and artillery fire support," added his subordinate, Oleksandr Belyaev, 30. This section leader also became an instructor after a serious injury in which shrapnel tore up his knee. "We're also losing a lot of vehicles to enemy FPV [drones]; we absolutely need jammers. My battalion lost its last scrambler two days ago."

In another grove near Bakhmut, where a tank company of the 28th brigade is stationed, the complaints are the same. "For months now, the shortage of shells has been reducing our effectiveness," complained Viktor, 20, a pilot and mechanic on a T-64 tank. "We're also short of fuel, and we only have one anti-drone jammer for the whole company," which consists of 10 T-64 tanks. "We need at least one jammer for each pair of tanks."
"We're holed up here because the sky is dominated by the enemy," added Serhiy, 36, a tank commander. "Our anti-aircraft defense is outdated and has run out of ammunition too. All we can see are their planes." A few minutes later, as if to confirm these words, a white streak appeared high in the azure sky – the trail of a Russian bomber that had just dropped a salvo of guided glide bombs.
Even worse off is the so-called "saturation artillery" (multiple rocket launchers). "I haven't fired a single full salvo [40 rockets] in the year and a half I've been deployed in Donbas," said Arthur, 24, commander of a BM-21 combat vehicle in the 59th brigade near Pokrovsk. "I fire five rockets at most, but that's rare. Most of the time, it's just one rocket, to have a psychological effect on an enemy infantry group preparing to attack," explained the former agricultural student.

"Not being able to fulfill our mission is undermining morale. If we had enough rockets, the front line would be different," he said. What he does know for sure is that the situation is unlikely to improve. No one is making BM-21 rockets anymore. "We'd have to get hold of a North Korean stockpile," said the gunner, without the slightest hint of irony.
The Ukrainian army is struggling to counter the breaches being made by the opportunistic Russian invaders. The price of delayed ammunition deliveries is being paid with a non-renewable resource: Ukrainian soldiers' lives. It's a situation that doesn't have much to do with Rockin' in the Free World.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

The link to the interview here is quite a fascinating read on EW in this conflict: https://twitter.com/DanielR33187703/status/1791117644046930406

A very interesting interview with #Ukrainian engineer Serhii "Flash" on electronic warfare. It gives an idea of some of the many problems encountered. "Large enterprises are not interested in creating a small trench EW."

Video: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1791879855136518283

New 155mm artillery shell stocks are definitely being felt on eastern Ukraine's frontline.

Earlier this week, Russian forces tried to push a mechanized attack through Soloviove, Donetsk Oblast, but ran into FPV drones and heavy artillery fire, losing a T-72 and two IFVs.

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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes that the May Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast may be only the first wave of broader attacks, he said in an interview with AFP.

With its energy network nearly destroyed, Ukraine already fears the winter

While the rolling plains of Ukraine’s countryside are in full spring bloom, officials already fear what the distant winter will bring as a major energy crisis grips the country and power companies resort to phased blackouts to conserve supplies.
Russian territorial gains over the past months have been mirrored by successful missile barrages against Ukraine’s power plants, both abetted by faltering supplies of weapons and ammunition from the country’s foreign backers.
Ukraine’s energy companies are scrambling to repair the power stations damaged by Russian missiles before frigid temperatures set in — and avoid plunging the cities into the cold and dark when winter comes.
Since March, five waves of missile attacks have resulted in the “complete destruction” of the power stations from the DTEK private energy supplier, which produces 20 percent of the country’s electrical output, CEO Maksym Timchenko said in a Zoom briefing with journalists on Tuesday.
The last attack, on May 8, was particularly devastating, he said, because all of the missiles reached their targets, unimpeded by air defense, knocking out three more power stations.
“We need to get out of this cycle: destruction, repair, destruction — meaning we can lose everything if we don’t have proper air defense systems,” said Timchenko.

But then winter will arrive.
Winter will be “undoubtedly difficult,” Boiko said — the only question is to what degree. Ukraine has lost some eight gigawatts of electricity production because of the strikes, he said — approaching half of what this country of 30 million, the size of Texas, needs during peak periods.
“This [shortfall] can be significantly reduced,” but not to the extent that it could be halved or even eradicated, Boiko said. “That is, there will be a deficit in the electrical system even if the winter is warm.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russians Poured Over Ukraine’s Border. There Was Little to Stop Them.

The stunning incursion into the Kharkiv Region lays bare the challenges facing Ukraine’s weary and thinly stretched forces as Russia ramps up its summer offensive.

www.nytimes.com

The stunning incursion into the Kharkiv Region lays bare the challenges facing Ukraine’s weary and thinly stretched forces as Russia ramps up its summer offensive. The Russian troops pouring over the border enjoyed a huge advantage in artillery shells and employed air power, including fighter jets and heavy glide bombs, to disastrous effect, unhindered by depleted Ukrainian air defenses.
Once over the border, the Russian soldiers easily pushed past fortifications — like trenches, land mines and tank barriers — some of which, Ukrainian troops said, were insufficient or sloppily constructed.
But the biggest challenge for Ukrainian forces is people. Ground down over more than two years of war, Ukraine’s military is struggling to come up with enough soldiers to effectively defend the 600-mile front line, even as Russian forces have swelled with thousands of newly mobilized troops.

As the scale of the Russian push became clear over the weekend, Ukraine’s military scrambled to divert troops from other areas of the front, rather than deploying reserves. The reason, according to Ukrainian officials: There are few reserves to deploy.
Ukrainian military officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military details, said the situation in the Kharkiv Region was critical, but under control. On Saturday, Ukrainian forces appeared to have slowed the Russian advance, though vicious fighting was reported along a ribbon of territory five miles from the Russian border.

Some Ukrainian officials said that fortifying areas close to the border was nearly impossible because of Russian shelling. But, they added, stronger defensive lines, constructed farther from the frontier, have so far held up under the Russian assault.

Ukraine struggles to hold eastern front as Russians advance on cities

For Ukrainian gun commander Oleksandr Kozachenko, the long-awaited U.S. ammunition can't come fast enough as he and his comrades struggle to hold off relentless Russian attacks.
His unit's U.S.-supplied M777 howitzer, which once hurled 100 shells a day at the encroaching enemy, is now often reduced to fewer than 10.
"It's a luxury if we can fire 30 shells."
America says it's rushing ammunition and weapons to Ukraine following the delayed approval of a $61 billion aid package by Congress last month. As of early May, though, two artillery units visited by Reuters on the eastern frontline said they were still waiting for a boost in deliveries and operating at a fraction of the rate they need to hold back the Russians.
Gunners with Kozachenko's 148th Separate Artillery Brigade and the 43rd Artillery Brigade, both in the Donetsk region, said they were desperate for more 155mm rounds for their Western cannons, which had given them an edge over Russia earlier in the war.

Colonel Pavlo Palisa, whose 93rd Mechanised Brigade is fighting near the key strategic city of Chasiv Yar, said he believed Russia was preparing a major push to break Ukrainian lines in the east. This echoed the commander of Ukraine's ground forces who said last week he expected the war to enter a critical phase over the next two months as Moscow tries to exploit persistent delays in weapons supplies to Kyiv.
"Without a doubt, this will be a difficult period for the armed forces," said Palisa, adding that he believes the Kremlin wants to capture the entire Donbas industrial region by the end of this year.

"We live only for today," said 31-year-old school teacher Nina Shyshymarieva, standing with her young daughter outside a church in Kostiantynivka as artillery thundered in the distance.
"We don't know what will happen tomorrow."
Russian cannons are now easily within range of Kostiantynivka; the closest Russian position at the start of 2024 was about 20 km away, according to open-source maps that show shifting positions along the frontline. Now it is 14 km.
Shyshymarieva and the fighters on the frontline were among more than a dozen soldiers, commanders, residents and evacuation volunteers interviewed by Reuters in eastern Ukraine over the last two weeks. They painted a picture of deep uncertainty.
Much of the Donetsk region, which along with Luhansk makes up the greater Donbas area, is under daily bombardment, typically targeted at least a dozen times a day by Russian artillery or air strikes, according to regional governor Vadym Filashkin.

Even if Ukrainian forces can hold out until all the American ammunition and weapons get through to the front, the challenge ahead remains daunting, according to many of those fighting.
"I would say that it is unlikely that time is on our side, since a long war requires more resources," said Palisa, the colonel with the 93rd Mechanised Brigade, speaking hours after Russia launched its ground incursion in Kharkiv.
He added that it would be critical to impose as heavy a cost on Russia as quickly as possible.
"The enemy's resources, whether in terms of manpower or the materiel, cannot be compared with ours. It's extraordinarily large. That is why a long war, I think, is not in our favour."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine war latest: Russian forces take control of village in Kharkiv region - defence ministry

Russian troops are continuing to advance in the Kharkiv region - with the defence ministry claiming it had taken control of 12 settlements in a week.

news.sky.com

Four Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets in Crimea have degraded Russia's ability to defend the airspace around the illegally annexed peninsula, the Ministry of Defence says.

In its defence intelligence update on X, the ministry said the strikes had also demonstrated Ukraine's capability to impact Russian Air Defence operations.

Ukraine attacked Belbek airfield on 14 May, destroying elements of an air defence missile battery, including a radar system and launchers.

It carried out three other successful attacks between 16 April and 12 May.

The ministry said it was highly likely Russia would have to disperse and relocate air assets, ultimately increasing flight hours and maintenance requirements.

Looks to be some explosions in Sevastopol here: https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1791953841614676146

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Denis Yaroslavskyi, commander of a recce unit from Ukraine’s 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade, clarified that four understrength battalions from the 57th Bde [among other units], already “exhausted” from fighting the Kharkiv direction, redeployed to the Vovchans’k area in northern Kharkiv Oblast several days before Russian began its offensive. He said they were originally supposed to hold the second line of defense.

Air Force orders electronic warfare (EW) jammers to foil efforts to defeat GPS-guided smart munitions

Home-on GPS Jam seekers help JDAM detect and attack jammers intended to disrupt GPS signals that help guide bombs, missiles, and artillery shells.

www.militaryaerospace.com

U.S. Air Force smart munitions experts needed add-on sensor kits to enable the GPU-31 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) guided bomb to attack jammers that degrade the performance of GPS-guided weapons. They found their solution from Scientific Applications & Research Associates Inc. (SARA) in Cypress, Calif.

Officials of the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center, Hill Air Force Base, Utah, announced a $23.6 million contract to SARA this month for Home-on GPS Jam seekers intended for use by the Ukrainian military.

SARA experts will integrate the Home-on GPS Jam seekers on JDAM wing kits, which are being sold to Ukraine in that country's continuing war with Russia. This contract involves Foreign Military Sales to Ukraine, U.S. military leaders say.

Zelensky: Ukraine only has 25% of needed air defense capabilities

Ukraine only has 25% of the air defense capabilities it needs to adequately repel Russian attacks, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with AFP on May 17.

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine only has 25% of the air defense capabilities it needs to adequately repel Russian attacks, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with AFP on May 17.

Ukraine war latest: Russian forces take control of village in Kharkiv region - defence ministry

Russian troops are continuing to advance in the Kharkiv region - with the defence ministry claiming it had taken control of 12 settlements in a week.

news.sky.com

A Russian attack plane has been shot down, a Ukrainian army brigade has reported.

The 110th separate brigade said the Su-25 had been destroyed in Donetsk.

It said it was the fourth Su-25 to have been shot down, adding it will keep issuing "flaming fines" to Russia for crossing into Ukraine.

"Our sky will become hell for the occupant pilots. Our squad number will be a nightmare for them," it added.

 

[Orange&Blue]

If Ukraine is serious about winning they need a large scale mobilization. they are basically out of reserves and their units are exhausted. even if they get resupplied now, as Congress finally acted, they won't be able to do anything better than a hopeful stalemate.

f-16s aren't going to win them the war. as soon as they arrive i expect Russia to launch every missile/drone they have at those bases.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Ukrainian pilots undergoing training in France for F-16 fighter jets with Dassault Alpha Jet training aircraft.

Ukrainian pilots undergo general training on the Alpha Jet to learn the fundamentals of flying a fighter jet before advancing to specialized F-16 programs.

Ukraine's post-25 enlistment policy aims to 'protect the country's future'

NEWS ANALYSIS. Due to declining demographics, the country has chosen not to draft 18-25-year-olds into the armed forces. The average age of those serving in the military is over 40.

www.lemonde.fr

Due to declining demographics, the country has chosen not to draft 18-25-year-olds into the armed forces. The average age in the armed forces is over 40.

An influential military analyst in Kyiv, Taras Chmut, director of the Come Back Alive armed forces support foundation and a former non-commissioned officer in a marine troop reconnaissance unit, launched the debate on the day the law was passed. In an interview with Ukrainska Pravda published on April 11, he said he believed that Ukraine "wasted too much time" and that "mobilization must take place at 20," while acknowledging that it is "a terrible measure."
Interviewed after the law was passed, Chmut estimated that the change from 27 to 25 years of age would mobilize "around 200,000 additional soldiers" and that "it is not enough," especially at a time when "Ukraine has lost the strategic initiative on the entire front line." In the event of a change to the age of 20, "one million men" could be mobilized.
Lamenting that "Ukrainian society is reacting negatively" to the prospect of extending mobilization, the director of Come Back Alive reiterates that younger men are "healthier and more adept with the technological tools" now indispensable to warfare. However, he acknowledged that Ukraine "needs to think about its demographics, about the post-war period. The longer the war goes on, the more people will die and the fewer Ukrainians who have gone abroad will return."

Director of the Ptoukha Institute of Demography and Social Studies at the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, Ella Libanova drew an alarming conclusion for the country: "Around six million Ukrainians have left the country. We don't know the mortality figures because nobody gives the real number of soldiers killed and we don't know the number of civilian deaths in occupied territory, but we do know that the birth rate is falling, because of the departure of women abroad and men to the front, and the loss of territory."
The demographer, for her part, praised the concern of the political authorities and the Ukrainian army to "protect the country's future." "There are enough men between the ages of 25 and 60" to go into battle, she believes, and we must avoid "losing a generation of younger men." "For demographic reasons, we absolutely must save the 18-25 year-olds, so that they can have children."
Libanova is inexhaustible on the origins of Ukraine's demographic problems. In addition to the great wars of the 20th century, common across Europe, Ukraine's issues can be traced back to the deportation of people to Soviet labor camps and the fact that there were more job opportunities in Russia than in Ukraine. The only exception was the year following independence, 1991-1992, when 200,000 Ukrainians returned home.
"The major trend," said the demographer, is that "unlike countries that benefit demographically from migration, Ukraine is experiencing migration as a problem, with departures previously to Russia, and now to European Union countries." Libanova is already thinking about the challenges of the post-war period. "The challenge will be the return of Ukrainians who have left abroad. Apart from the fact that our cities risk being destroyed and the job market will be uncertain, the majority of our refugees are young, educated women, who quickly integrate into their adopted countries. And, as their companions left behind in Ukraine are also young and educated, there is a risk that it will be they who join them, after the war, rather than them who return." In addition to further demographic decline, she fears that Ukraine is losing "formidable human capital."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

‘The City Needs to Live.’ Inside Ukraine’s Second City as Russia Closes In.

Despite the keep-calm-and-carry-on attitude, life in Kharkiv has been changed by war. Few are leaving now, but a third of the city’s inhabitants haven’t returned. Hundreds of buildings are damaged beyond repair. Numerous civilians have died from Russian strikes, laid to rest in cemeteries surrounding the city. Schools operate underground, holding classes in subway stations.

Kharkiv’s proximity to the battlefield leaves some soldiers on a break from duty baffled at the sight of young men visiting clubs and gyms while their army reels from a dire manpower shortage that has helped Russia seize territory in recent months.
Andriy Shcherbina, a drone operator serving on one of the hottest parts of the front line in Vovchansk, said a recent vacation left him feeling like he had landed on a different planet. “I talked with people and they genuinely thought things were fine, that the war is ending,” he said. “But it’s very far from over.”
None of that seemed to concern the clientele of Che Bar on a recent night. As the drinks flowed, and the DJ remixed Ukrainian pop songs with lyrics about patriotism and Ukrainian identity, the staff said the venue’s very existence was a reminder that Kharkiv’s spirit couldn’t be broken.
“This is a very tough time for Ukraine. People are struggling,” said Yamnitskiy, the manager. “We’re here to remind them about occasionally having fun.”

Ukrainian soldiers reveal how they were secretly moved ahead of new Russian invasion

Troops from a brigade in Kharkiv have told Sky News how they scrambled to counter a new Russian assault earlier this month - and described the chaotic scenes in the battle that erupted.

news.sky.com

The commander of an artillery unit from 57 Brigade said his guns were even firing at Russian troops the day before the ground incursion into the northeastern region of Kharkiv, which started on 10 May. He said the forces had been "brazenly" amassing on the Russian side of the border.

"We were hitting tanks on the border… it was already a real war," said Sasha, 26, who uses the callsign "black".

The commander of a second artillery unit similarly confirmed the brigade had been moved early to bolster defences in this direction.

The troops had previously been defending the city of Kupiansk, also in Kharkiv.

The comments offer a sense of how Ukraine attempted - ahead of time - to scramble forces to counter a Russian build-up along its long, northeastern border.

But the move was nowhere near enough to prevent the largest assault into Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion almost two and a half years ago.

A Ukrainian source, describing the first few days of the Kharkiv offensive just over a week ago, said there had been moments when he feared "we had lost the frontline".

The source said the situation had since stabilised but warned: "We don't know how long it could be like this".

At a makeshift base, safely back from the frontline, the artillery unit commander Sasha uses electronic maps on a tablet and laptop to confirm targets for his guns to attack.

He said he and his team relocated from the Kupiansk front on the 4 to 5 May.

"We were indeed moved here earlier," Sasha said. But he signalled he would have liked longer to prepare.

"I don't know all the situation and why it happened like this. But I know for sure that to better repel [an attack], we might need either more time or better-prepared positions," he said.

"Ahead of the assault, we were already hitting targets on Russian territory because we knew they were gathering there. They were brazenly assembling."

Sasha described the moment the Russians started to advance.

He said it began with three hours of artillery fire against Ukrainian targets before ground troops crossed the border.

"I would love that they [the Russians] had been stopped at the border," he said.
Instead, a fierce battle erupted, as Russian infantry, backed by airstrikes, drone attacks and artillery fire, pushed forward.

"For the first few days, they [the Russians] were storming our positions - columns of 30 to 50 soldiers. We were hitting them."

In the chaos, Sasha said he worked to gather information to ensure his troops were able to operate.

"I am proud that my guys managed to do their best," he said. "All credit to those who stayed on their artillery positions."

He described the frontline as initially being "fragile" but said reinforcements were now in place. The commander said Russia had lost the opportunity to make a significant breakthrough.

"Until now they had a chance. Even in my area, I knew where we had gaps where they could have slipped through. Now we don't have such gaps," he said.

"I am satisfied that we have managed to stabilise the situation."

At a second artillery position, on a different section of a frontline that has expanded by some 40 miles in the wake of the new attack, a Soviet-era gun, hidden under netting and tree branches, points in the direction of Russia.
Soldiers here said they would be able to inflict a lot more damage on the invaders if they had more ammunition and better weapons.

Nicknamed "grandma", their D-20 Howitzer artillery piece, which fires 152mm shells, was built in the 1970s.
"We're saving our artillery shells right now. We fire one, they fire back five," said one of the servicemen, who - at 50 years old - has the callsign "Grandpa".

A second soldier said Russia has more weapons than his side.

Asked what difference additional munitions would make, he said with a laugh: "It would increase the number of dead Russians - 100%".

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine war: Russia's lethal glide bombs hitting Ukraine's cities

Russia is increasingly using budget "glide bombs" to advance its offensive in Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

Russia is able to stockpile glide bombs in high quantities because they are quite easily produced.

“The explosive part is essentially a conventional freefall iron bomb, of which Russia has hundreds of thousands in storage from the Soviet period,” says Prof Justin Bronk, airpower and military technology specialist at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).

“They are fitted with pop-out wings which, after the bomb is dropped, will flick out to allow it to glide much longer distances.”

Their attached satellite guidance system allows targeting of a stationary position with relatively high accuracy.

According to Prof Bronk, the mechanism of the bombs gives the Russians much of the functionality of a multi-million dollar missile, but for a fraction of the cost.

He says that glide kits - which are mass-produced and pretty mechanically simple - are added to Soviet bombs, of which the Russians have a plentiful supply - meaning the cost per weapon can be "somewhere in the region of $20,000 to $30,000 (£15,700-£23,600)".

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Ukrainian missile strikes hit the Luhansk State University of Internal Affairs located in Russia-controlled Katerynivka/Yuvileine near Luhansk in eastern Ukraine on Monday.

The remains of French-supplied SCALP-EG long-range cruise missiles were found in the area.

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Exclusive: Ukrainian Army is forming four new infantry brigades as the mobilization law comes into effect.

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.@Deepstate_UA's updated map showing Russian advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast, on the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk front, on the Kupiansk front, and towards Robotyne.

In a foxhole with the special forces taking out 40 Russians a day

Standing between Putin and Kharkiv are elite Ukrainian soldiers delivering death by handset — and posting kill videos to crowdfund for the war

www.thetimes.co.uk

The foxhole is only 10ft wide and 4ft deep, scant cover for the Ukrainian special forces team when death comes straight at them.
“Russian jets incoming!” shouts Anton, who was a businessman before the war. Five men pile on top of one another. The shelter smells of wet soil tinged with sweat, and severed tree roots jab at the bodies pressed against them, tearing unprotected skin. The ground shakes one, two, three, under the impact of huge long-range glide bombs. The team is not the target, yet. “We have just a few seconds to get under the ground,” Anton says. “Otherwise that’s it.”
Hidden in the treeline northeast of the village of Lyptsi, these men, who call themselves the Peaky Blinders after the violent British television drama, are in a fight that will potentially determine the fate of Ukraine’s second-largest city. On this day alone they will kill or wound dozens of enemy fighters.

Yet if they take the heights at Lyptsi they will be able to bring their artillery to bear on the centre of Kharkiv. That will make life untenable for the hundreds of thousands of people still living in a city once home to 1.5 million.
The Peaky Blinders, an elite National Guard detachment, are led by Oleksandr Zaliznyak, a farmer who first learnt this landscape when exploring its dirt tracks by bicycle as a child.
That gives him a lethal advantage over the Russians he hunts in Lyptsi’s hollows, copses and undergrowth.
The road into the village is best travelled fast. To reach their position each day, the team’s pick-ups roar down a rutted country road at 80mph or more, with electronic warfare equipment mounted on their rooftops to foil enemy drone attacks. Should that fail, a shotgun is their last line of defence.

An hour after the Peaky Blinders arrive in their foxhole, a crackle of automatic-weapon fire erupts just over a mile away to our right flank. The squad scrambles to get drones in the air. Through these airborne cameras they spot three Ukrainian soldiers kneeling in the grass, then the platoon of Russian soldiers they are engaging.
The Peaky Blinders’ reconnaissance drones are equipped with grenades, and they also have first-person-view “suicide” attack drones too, which kill by ramming their targets.
The first grenade they drop lightly wounds one Russian and sends the others scrambling for cover, breaking up their assault on the Ukrainian infantry positions. It is the start of a day-long game of hide-and-seek whose stakes are life and death.
The tempo of the work is frenetic, fuelled by cans of “military edition” energy drinks. Terse commands are shouted ahead of each drone launch. Misses are cursed, hits celebrated with fist bumps, high fives and compliments.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

The robots are coming: How Ukraine became the testing ground for AI-powered combat

As autonomous drones soar toward the frontline, bigger countries like China and the U.S. are watching.

www.politico.eu

On a sunny, balmy Tuesday in late April, a line of cars formed outside a military proving ground near Kyiv, their passengers eager to catch a glimpse of the future of warfare. As the drivers waited to enter, hosts of maybugs swarmed overhead. Above them buzzed bigger, robotic competitors: military drones crisscrossing the sky.

The grounds were full of techies and soldiers, gathering on a field scarred by Russia’s foiled assault on Kyiv to test-drive their latest innovations. Among them was a Ukrainian startup called Swarmer. Registered in Delaware and with offices in Romania and Poland, it had something special to demo: drones that use artificial intelligence to work together as a coordinated swarm.

It took about 20 minutes for Swarmer’s team of five engineers to prepare the drones for their mission: to find and destroy two targets hidden somewhere in the field. Usually, drones need pilots equipped with video-game-style controllers and goggles to see through their cameras. For this test, Yaroslav Sherstyuk, a former Ukrainian army officer, planned to run three reconnaissance drones and two larger bombers. “I will be in charge,” Sherstyuk said. “But that only takes pushing three buttons.”

He indicated the targets on a map, pushed start and leaned back in his chair. Two reconnaissance drones zoomed off. “Each of them decided on the best trajectory on their own, based on a possible terrain relief or other possible obstacles we pointed out on the map,” said Sherstyuk, watching their progress on his screen. The two bombers followed. Only the last, small drone stayed back.

The bombers found their targets. Sherstyuk approved the attack, then hopped on a phone call with his son while the drones carried out the strike. The last drone whirred forward. “It’s checking whether the bombers destroyed the target,” Sherstyuk said. “Command usually demands destruction or damage confirmation, so it’s doing that.”

Mission accomplished, the drones floated back to Sherstyuk. Swarmer’s team toasted the demo’s success with alcohol-free beer.

As its war against Russia drags on, Ukraine is emerging as a testing ground for cutting-edge warfare, including drones and other vehicles capable of carrying out parts of their mission on their own. Serhii Kuprienko, Swarmer’s 39-year-old founder and chief executive, thinks his swarms might be deployed this year. “We have already passed the first combat tests,” he said.

By allowing a single pilot to control multiple drones, Swarmer aims to alleviate the manpower shortages that have put Ukraine’s armed forces on the back foot in recent weeks. Using artificial intelligence, or AI, the company’s drones will react autonomously to changing circumstances and communicate with each other to orchestrate a sortie.

“AI-powered drones can do in seconds what would take a human several hours, simply because we are slow to process a large volume of information,” Kuprienko said. “The swarm is effective because one experienced drone pilot can work effectively with dozens of drones at the same time.”

He stressed that the decision to attack a target would always be made by a human. Still, he couldn’t resist making the Arnold Schwarzenegger-sized sci-fi reference that inevitably looms over any conversation about AI-powered combat robots.

“My goal,” he said, “is to make a proper version of the Terminator that will protect us and help our army.”

Ukraine has attracted dozens of Western defense and technology companies eager to test — or advertise — their offerings in a live-fire situation. “If companies want to do something in the field of defense innovations, they have to be in Ukraine,” said Brave1’s Chief Operating Officer, Nataliia Kushnerska. “Ukraine is definitely the most dynamic innovation ecosystem in the world.”

One of those companies is Quantum Systems, a company that has deployed 400 reconnaissance drones in Ukraine, with a contract to deliver 800 more and eventually build a factory in the country, according to its CEO Florian Seibel, who accompanied Germany’s Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck on a mission to the country last month.

The company has made waves as far away as Silicon Valley: German-American billionaire Peter Thiel is an investor and Seibel met emissaries from the venture capital firm Sequoia just before sitting down with POLITICO in his office, a squat, drone-filled building in an industrial park outside Munich.

Quantum Systems’ drones are expensive, at €200,000 each, but they use AI to overcome electronic warfare with preloaded maps and landmarks to navigate a GPS-denied environment, and machine vision to flag foes. “You can completely take operators out of the loop,” Seibel said.

While Quantum System’s drones only work as spotters, Seibel said the Ukrainian experience convinced him to form a new company called Stark Defense to develop autonomous weapons with full-strike capability. “If we don’t want our kids to fight Chinese war robots in the future, we have to get going and work on robots ourselves,” he said. Crucially, he added, Stark’s systems will be “capable of operating without a human in the loop.”

He acknowledged that this was a controversial approach. “We will prepare the grounds so that it is possible, but in the end, it’s not my decision,” he said. “If the decision of the German government is that we cannot have autonomous weapons with no human in the loop, well, then this will not be used.”

Stark is still, to a certain extent, in “stealth” mode — recruiting, seeking venture capital investment — but it would theoretically be able to deploy its products on short notice, he said. “We will deploy whenever we think it’s ready to be viable, and whenever the Ukrainians decide to,” he says.

Has the company already tested its drones in Ukraine?

“Maybe,” Seibel said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Czech ammunition buy for Ukraine nears first delivery, faces headwinds

Leaders in Prague must resolve complex multinational procurement questions, and interference from Moscow.

www.defensenews.com

Three months after kickstarting a bulk ammunition purchase for Ukraine, Czech officials share divergent assessments of how it’s going.

“The Czech-led initiative to fund and procure urgently artillery ammo for Ukraine is progressing steadily – the first 180,000 shells have been contracted and should arrive by June,” František Šulc, the first Deputy Minister of Defense of the Czech Republic told Defense News during the IDEB defense fair, held here May 14-16.

Prague is actively engaged with partner nations to secure additional financial resources and ensure a “steady supply of ammunition” to Ukraine in the coming months, Šulc added.

However, not all officials appear to share the same optimistic view of the state of the audacious proposal, which entails of sourcing much-needed 122mm and 155mm artillery shells on the global market.

In a recent interview with the German news service Tagesschau, Czech President Petr Pavel said the initiative was not advancing as rapidly as envisaged partly due to the Russian government knowing details of the operation.

“The more people know about the initiative, the more competition there is – on the one hand it was necessary to make it public to gain the support of other countries, but on the other we also revealed our cards, which Russia is of course now exploiting,” Pavel said.

“This is another reason why the initiative is not progressing as quickly as we would have liked,” he added.

Exclusive: Ukraine's Zelenskiy pushes allies to step up aid and involvement in war

Zelenskiy reiterated that he had not broken agreements with allies not to use their weapons inside Russia.
"We can't put the whole volume of weapons at risk."

10 Ukrainian soldiers complete F-16 maintenance training in Netherlands

Ten Ukrainian soldiers completed training for the F-16 aircraft maintenance in the Netherlands, the Dutch Defense Ministry announced on May 21.

kyivindependent.com

Ten Ukrainian soldiers had completed training for the F-16 aircraft maintenance in the Netherlands, the Dutch Defense Ministry announced on May 21.

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In an about face, German officials are ready to support a US plan to leverage the future revenue generated from frozen Russian assets to back $50 billion in aid to Ukraine, per sources. Germany’s assent could be a crucial step that brings US and its allies closer to securing a substantial new aid package for Ukraine.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Putin starts tactical nuke drills near Ukraine

Russia amps up nuclear threat.

www.politico.eu

Russia on Tuesday announced it has started tactical nuclear weapons exercises near Ukraine, as Moscow again accused the West of being "provocative."

The Kremlin's Southern Military District troops "are practicing combat training tasks of obtaining special ammunition for the Iskander operational-tactical missile system, equipping launch vehicles with them and covertly advancing to the designated position area in preparation for missile launches," Russia's defense ministry said in a statement Tuesday afternoon.

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So exercises for tactical nukes in the Southern MD have begun. Involve release of warheads by 12th GUMO to Iskander, then simulation of launches. Also involve Kinzhal(!).

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I don't think these are actual warheads. Look at the guard - it's a lone guy with a Kalashnikov. No perimeter or anything like that. (Although they should have probably trained the guard part of the procedure)

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Nuclear weapons exercises usually entail very strict secrecy protocols. However, the current exercises look like a marketing stunt! The main objective is PSYOPS. Frankly, it's no surprise the Kremlin believes it can influence Western publics and decision makers!

Thread: https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1792938710218023181

I am not an authorized person or official representative to make statements on behalf of the military or the entire country, but I want to share the concerns expressed by many on the frontlines, from privates to colonels. They often ask me: where is the promised aid?

Thread:
2/ Considering that I talk to many analysts and experts worldwide, many of my friends and acquaintances hope I can provide them with comprehensive knowledge and answers in private. However, the truth is, I don't have an answer.
3/ I might criticize my President for his mistakes, but he's right on multiple issues. One of them is foreign aid— it's too little, too late. It causes an effect that I coined as the "vaccination effect," where small weapon deliveries don't tip the balance but let the enemy adapt
4/ This situation also creates an environment where battlefield failures are blamed either entirely on the US for not providing enough aid or on the Ukrainian government for poor or delayed wartime political decisions, such as delayed mobilization or lack of fortifications.
5/ At this point, it's not uncommon for me to hear theories suggesting that the West, especially the US, is deliberately withholding aid to force Ukraine into negotiations. It's also believed that the US influences European partners, causing delays in aid from Europe as well.
6/ Whether I agree with these theories or not is irrelevant. What's more concerning is that such narratives are present among Ukrainian soldiers and officers, who do not understand why they can't engage Russian forward bases and concentrations of forces with the provided weapons
7/ One could argue that it's not the US's responsibility to provide more aid to Ukraine However, if that's the case, then the leaders of the free world should be transparent about it: "This war has made you a burden, and you should handle it on your own from here"
8/ Once more, I may partially agree, fully agree, or disagree with this sentiment. I aim to transmit these sentiments I've heard from dozens of people. The strategic miscalculations of our leadership don't excuse our partners from their previous commitments and transparency.

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The Russian government just decided it no longer recognizes Lithuania and Finland's maritime borders so its unilaterally changed what it views as its borders in the Baltic Sea:

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Finland is currently producing over five times more artillery shell bodies than before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Such plans to expand production at Nammo-Lapua's Sastamala Plant have been known since February, but have evidently been already achieved in just a few months' time.

This was disclosed by Finnish Defense Minister Hakkanen in his meeting today with US Secretary of Defense Austin.

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The former commander of Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army Major General Ivan Popov who was relieved last summer has been arrested on suspicion of fraud.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Video: https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1792951496692093434

The members of the Ukraine-led International Legion fighting in the area of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine, where Russian forces are attempting to advance.

Video: https://x.com/sambendett/status/1792944847743008997

Russian military is starting to utilize "Lyagushka" (Frog) small UGV that carries up to 30kg of explosives at up to 20km/h to destroy dugouts and fortifications. According to Russian state media, it is operated like an FPV, and soldiers made their own mods to antennas that direct the UGV.

Video: https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1792974125595521320

Possibly the first documentation of a Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicle (USV) with some kind of an installed launcher firing a rocket salvo from the sea at Russian forces in land.

While the exact type of ammunition being used here is not known (likely 122mm rockets or something similar), the employment of such rocket-armed USVs would give the Ukrainians opportunity to strike Russian targets located far from the frontlines, but close to the shore.

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From @NATO Deputy SecGen:

"Agencies have warned of Russian hackers, linked to Russia's GRU, targeting infrastructure, including water treatment plants in Texas and Indiana, Poland and France. Recently, there was a sustained attack on a European port"

Video: Janet Yellen: 'Possibility' of $50bn Ukraine loan from seized Russian assets

Russia’s War Machine Revs Up as the West’s Plan to Cap Oil Revenues Sputters

Russia has largely evaded attempts by the U.S. and Europe to keep it from profiting from its energy exports.

www.nytimes.com

The United States and its allies in the Group of 7 nations set two goals in 2022 when they enacted a novel plan to cap the price of Russian oil: restrict Moscow’s ability to profit from its energy exports while allowing its oil to continue flowing on international markets to prevent a global price shock.
A year and a half later, only the latter goal appears to have worked. Energy prices have been relatively stable across the world, including in the United States, which helped devise the plan. But Russia’s war effort in Ukraine is intensifying, making it increasingly clear that efforts by Western allies to squeeze Moscow’s oil revenues are faltering.
A variety of factors have allowed Russia to continue profiting from strong oil revenue, including lenient enforcement of the price cap. Russia’s development of an extensive “shadow” fleet of tankers has allowed it to largely circumvent that policy. That has allowed the Russian economy to be more resilient than expected, raising questions about the effectiveness of the coordinated sanctions campaign employed by the G7.

A report published this month by S&P Global said that 76.6 percent of Russian oil exports, or three million barrels per day, were transported in April on tankers operated by companies that were not based in the G7 or backed by western insurance. The volume of Russian oil exports last month was the highest it has been since December 2022 and tax revenues from oil doubled from April 2023.
In April, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its 2024 outlook for Russia’s growth to 3.2 percent, noting that most of its oil was being exported at prices above the $60 cap.
Russia’s private fleet of tankers and alternative insurance services have blunted the impact of the price cap, which does not apply to oil transactions using ships and insurance that fall outside the realm of the G7 countries. In response to an inquiry by the British government, a group of international insurers said last month that the price cap had become “increasingly unenforceable as more ships and associated services move into this parallel trade.”

“It’s hard to argue that the price cap is working,” said Edward Fishman, a senior research scholar at Columbia University. “It’s undeniable that Russia has more quickly than U.S. policymakers thought was possible shipped a lot of on non-Western ships and found alternatives to western insurance.”
Mr. Fishman, a former State Department official who oversaw Russia sanctions during the Obama administration after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, noted that the price cap included a large loophole that allowed banks to continue facilitating Russian energy transactions. To truly make the cap effective, he said, the price cap would need to be applied to any shipper that transports oil above $60 and buyers would need to face the threat of secondary sanctions.
“Just as Russia can adapt to sanctions, so too can the U.S. and the G7,” Mr. Fishman said. “Unfortunately, we have not adapted.”
Robin Brooks, a senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution, said that the United States should have pushed for a lower price level for the cap and that tougher enforcement would discourage evasion and likely cause the price of Russian oil to fall. Mr. Brooks suggested, however, that Europe was responsible for many of the problems with the cap and noted that Greek vessels had been supporting Russia’s oil trade.
“The main issue is that there have been a lot of oil tankers that have been sold to the shadow fleet,” Mr. Brooks said, arguing that shipowners should have to document who is buying their vessels. “The E.U. has not done what needs to be done.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Germany's military aid for Ukraine to rise by 3.8 billion euros, source says

Germany plans to ramp up military aid for Ukraine by another 3.8 billion euros ($4.13 billion) this year, a source told Reuters on Tuesday, confirming a report by top-selling Bild.
So far, Berlin has earmarked 7.1 billion euros for supporting Kyiv with weapons and ammunition this year but the money has already been almost completely allocated to projects, the paper said.
"If we want to do more, we need more money," Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said when asked about Ukraine military funding during a visit to an air base in Latvia.

Ukraine’s desperate struggle to defend Kharkiv

It is holding off Russia’s attack — for now

www.economist.com

A Russian column is already forming further north in Sudzha, on the other side of the border from Sumy, a regional capital north-west of Kharkiv. Ukraine’s army is also bracing for another strike just east of Vovchansk, towards the village of Bilyi Kolodiaz. Battles have also reactivated near Kupiansk, a railway hub, with Ukraine in effect losing control of the nearby village of Berestove on May 17th.

It is still too early to be sure about the eventual aims of the Russian operation. Also on May 17th Mr Putin declared that his only intention was to create a buffer zone between Ukraine and the border city of Belgorod, insisting there was “no plan” to threaten Kharkiv itself. But this possibly reflects evolving battleground realities rather than intentions. Retrieved military plans, details of which were shared with The Economist, suggest the Russians were probing to see if they could partially encircle Kharkiv and put pressure on the Ukrainian formations to the east of the Pechenihy reservoir. The operation was supposedly planned for May 15th-16th but was brought forward by nearly a week for unknown reasons.
According to the plans, the Russians had identified two axes of attack on either side of the reservoir. The push on the western axis was intended, over 72 hours, to bring Russian troops to within artillery range of Kharkiv city at the village of Borshchova. They were stopped by a rapidly redeployed grouping from the elite 92nd Brigade, which pushed them back a full 10km from their initial goal. But up until that moment, the story had been about Ukraine’s poor defensive fortifications, about how the 125th Brigade that should have repelled the attack in fact fled from positions while under pressure, and about serious Ukrainian losses.

Many of the soldiers in Kharkiv are angry that Russia was able to advance so far so quickly. Some of them criticise delays in Western aid, which they believe encouraged Russian aggression and weakened Ukrainian defences. Others suspect that incompetence, or even treachery, played a more significant role. Conspiracy theories to the effect that politicians in Kyiv or Washington may be selling Kharkiv down the river ahead of an ugly peace deal are also circulating. Official Ukrainian narratives that present a rosy picture are not helping to calm nerves. “[President Volodymyr] Zelensky is being kept in a warm bath,” complains Mr Yaroslavsky. “We think the president should tune into the situation on the ground and not ape Putin, a man whose life revolves around the papers his aides bring him.” A government official, who asked to remain anonymous, suggests that Mr Zelensky had already sensed he might not be receiving the full truth. “That’s what he yells at his generals, at least.”

Ukrainian gunners finally get shells to stop Russians near Kharkiv

Ukrainian servicemen operating a howitzer in Kharkiv region near the Russian border work around the clock to stop an incursion by Moscow's troops, and they are finally getting the shells to do it.

Those in the northern districts of Kharkiv region say the fighting is more intense than their previous assignment in Bakhmut, the town in eastern Ukraine seized by Russia last year and reduced to rubble by months of fighting.
"It's 24/7, their infantry keeps coming, we keep fighting their attacks. At least we are trying to. Whenever possible, we take them down," said Pavlo, a gunner of Ukraine's 92nd Separate Assault brigade operating a howitzer.
"We were positioned in the Bakhmut area before, now we have been transferred here. It's much 'hotter' here. We didn't have shells there. Here, at least we have shells, they started delivering them. We have something to work with, to fight."
Russian forces pushed across the border earlier this month and say they have captured about a dozen villages.
The town of Vovchansk, 5 km (three miles) inside the border, remains the focal point of the incursion. Ukrainian forces control about 60 % of the town and are fighting house-to-house to fend off Russian attacks.

The stakes are high - capturing Vovchansk would be Russia's most significant gain since launching the assault. Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, lies 70 km away.
"We see them walking down the road, 5 km away all the way from Shebekino," said Vitalii, commander of the brigade's artillery unit, referring to a town on the Russian side of the border.
"We see them walking on foot to their positions. As they move, we of course try to hit them , to inflict maximum casualties."
Officers pore over drone footage of Vovchansk, with smoke rising over different districts, to assess the situation below. Monitors are checked, calculations made.
Two men are tasked with ensuring the howitzer is well camouflaged - with tree boughs.
Vitalii is confident that the shells will keep coming as everyone is aware of the importance of holding their line.
"Yes, we will be getting ammunition because we are up against a large and serious enemy group," he said.
"If we can demonstrate now that we are able in such an extreme situation to stop the enemy's big scale assault on Kharkiv and Kharkiv region, the enemy will not dare to think of attacking Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy or Poltava region."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Polish PM does not exclude Russiaâs involvement in large-scale fire in Warsaw

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has conceded that Russian special forces could be responsible for the burning of a retail mall in Warsaw earlier this month, but urged people not to speculate until the investigation was completed.

www.pravda.com.ua

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has conceded that Russian special forces could be responsible for the burning of a retail mall in Warsaw earlier this month, but urged people not to speculate until the investigation was completed.

Ukraineâs Special Operations Forces destroy another Russian Buk anti-air system â video

Ukraineâs Special Operations Forces struck the fourth Buk anti-aircraft missile system belonging to Russia in the course of the last three weeks.

www.pravda.com.ua

Ukraine's Special Operations Forces struck the fourth Buk anti-aircraft missile system belonging to Russia in the course of the last three weeks.

Russian offensive on Sumy Oblast cannot be ruled out

Andrii Demchenko, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, has stated that the Russian offensive on Sumy Oblast should not be ruled out.

www.pravda.com.ua

Andrii Demchenko, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, has stated that the Russian offensive on Sumy Oblast should not be ruled out.

European Commission says Ukraine will receive first payment of revenue from frozen Russian assets in July

The European Commission said that the "resources will be available to support Ukraine starting from July 2024, with bi-annual payments."

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine will receive the first delivery of funds stemming from the revenue of frozen Russian assets in July, the European Commission said on May 21.

Video: How Ukrainian vets are using AI and bionics to recover from limb loss

Europe Sees Signs of Russian Sabotage but Hesitates to Blame Kremlin

European investigators increasingly see Russian fingerprints around recent acts of suspected sabotage on strategic infrastructure but are struggling to respond.

Reacting to clandestine threats is difficult because evidence around the suspected attacks—including a severed undersea gas pipeline, cuts in a vital internet connection and the disruption of a rail network—often isn’t conclusive. Potential culprits in big cases include commercial shipping or fishing vessels that have been engaged in apparently legitimate maritime transport or trawling for fish near sensitive seabed installations that were destroyed around the same time. They rarely have direct connections to Russian authorities, investigators say.

European governments have charged some Russians and Russian proxies in smaller incidents and are getting more vocal in accusing Moscow of waging hybrid warfare, but are stopping short of accusing Russia of specific attacks. In the most brazen suspected incidents, a lack of clear proof has prompted officials to leave cases open or declare investigations inconclusive.

Last fall, Finnish investigators linked a Chinese-registered ship, operated by a Russian crew, to the cutting of the Balticconnector natural-gas pipeline to mainland Europe. As the investigation advanced and the ship sailed around Scandinavia back toward Russia, the Finns contacted Norwegian counterparts about their suspicions. Norwegian authorities contemplated forcing the ship into one of their harbors for inspection, but ultimately decided they lacked clear evidence. A Norwegian coast-guard ship shadowed the Newnew Polar Bear as it was passing sensitive marine infrastructure.

“Only a week or two later we would have had enough evidence to stop and search the ship, but by then it was already too late,” one Norwegian official said.

Detecting potential attacks is increasingly difficult because Russia, since launching its full-scale invasion on Ukraine two years ago, has turned more to civilians and commercial vessels to survey and possibly attack critical infrastructure such as undersea connections, offshore energy facilities, transport networks and military installations, people familiar with the cases say.

Some governments are also refraining from blaming Moscow for fear of escalating tensions beyond control. The suspected attacks often fall below the threshold of what would be considered warlike acts of aggression because they involve civilian vessels, with operators who willingly talk with investigators and claim innocence.

Investigators and prosecutors must meet European justice systems’ high bar for criminal evidence while authorities grapple with enforcing national-security laws against potential culprits benefiting from Western democracies’ freedoms.

To prevent attacks, European governments have put the systems protecting critical infrastructure on high alert, added security personnel and placed more cameras and sensors at rail and maritime facilities.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Putin’s New Defense Minister Secretly Had Close Ties to Prigozhin—and Stalin

The wiry economist reportedly took a special interest in using private military companies to operate in “gray zones” where international law has collapsed.

www.thedailybeast.com

The wiry-looking economist with no military experience who Vladimir Putin has chosen to serve as his new defense minister is apparently a lot closer to the murky underworld of Russian security services than was originally thought.

Andrei Belousov was close to the late Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin—so close, according to a new report by opposition investigative reporting group Dossier Center, that the two were sometimes spotted “sitting with their arms around each other.”

A source told the outlet Belousov, who served as first deputy prime minister prior to his rise to defense minister, oversaw Prigozhin’s activities. The two are said to have spoken to each other like friends and “their work meetings were reminiscent of family get-togethers with tea; they informally discussed all the issues, then nodded to the junior employees, who then compiled everything into a real report.”

Meetings between Belousov and the mercenary boss were also noted in Prigozhin’s calendar, according to Dossier Center.

The newly appointed defense minister is said to have taken an interest in the use of private military companies, having reviewed a report on the development prospects of PMCs in 2018, when he was serving as a special assistant to Putin in economic affairs. The report touted private military companies like Wagner as a crucial new way to take on America and the U.K. as more and more of the world is marked by “gray zones,” areas where the report notes international law “doesn’t fully work” anymore.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

‘Code 9.2’: The secretive Ukrainian drone unit tasked with dropping mines into Russia

Dusk brings an urgent race to hide before dark.

The “Code 9.2” drone unit, from the 92nd assault brigade, are moving into a new launch position from where they are about to conduct a rare and potent mission: flying drones into Russia and dropping mines onto key roads inside enemy territory.

Twilight provides a moment of opportunity to set up new equipment and unload their Humvee before dark makes these complex tasks impossible. They can only hope the grey, fading light shields them from the endless stream of Russian drones that fly overhead, looking for something to strike.

A Starlink dish, a longer range drone antenna, dozens of battery packs, and two huge “Vampire” quadcopters are dumped into trenches and bunkers, set up, and in use within 30 minutes. It is only when the dark has set in that their work can begin.

And immediately the threat is apparent. Before operators Andrey and Artem can leave the bunker to begin work, a noise sends them rushing back in for cover.

“Sssshhh,” Andrey hisses. “Orlan.” The only way to protect yourself from being seen by an Orlan – a spotter drone that can also have thermal cameras enabling it to see in the dark – is to hide. And to silently listen for it to pass. “They will be flying all night,” he says.

The horizon is peppered with flashes – distant explosions. Across its center twinkles the Russian city of Belgorod, now repeatedly hit by Ukrainian strikes. Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed his week-old offensive into Kharkiv region in Ukraine is partially aimed at creating a buffer zone along the border to protect a population whose safety was never in doubt when he launched his invasion in February 2022.

The bunker is quickly turned into an operations hub, the team finding it hard to adjust to the silent open fields of their new home, after months of fierce battles around Bakhmut.
In the silence, Artem says, “you don’t know, will you get hit or not.” He points out the difference with Ukraine’s failed defense last year of Bakhmut, in the eastern Donetsk region – and their work tonight, about four miles from the border. Here the heavy foliage, lack of fixed front lines and proximity to Russia means “reconnaissance groups enter and can get anywhere.” They joke they could wake up to a Russian soldier standing over them.

For Artem though this fight is intensely personal. His parents still live in a partially destroyed village a short drive away. For 18 months he deceived them by saying he was stationed at a peaceful checkpoint, when he was really fighting on the front lines. Now they know he is nearby, and the feeling of fighting for his actual home leaves him feeling unsettled.

“Anxiety,” he says of the main feeling. “My parents are right here so if, God forbid, we fail somehow, if there is a breakthrough… it’s a big responsibility.”

Dark has set in, punctured only by the flashes of artillery strikes and the near-full moon. The team move to work fast. Artem and Andrey race to attach the mines to the drone, using only red lights. Suddenly, a tiny whining noise is audible.

“Run,” says Andrey, and they take cover in a nearby bunker. Spotted once, the trenches could become a target for airstrikes and artillery all night, and there is little chance to escape: they have no vehicle and racing across open ground on foot is perilous too.

A few minutes pass. Flares illuminate an adjacent field. Battles are raging elsewhere too. The team resumes work. Zip ties prime fuses. Masking tape readies explosive. Then again, another drone passes close by, and they race again for shelter.

CNN on the ground Video: Ukrainian soldiers drop explosive payload into Russia with night drone

 

[Don't Toews Me]

UK defence minister says intelligence has evidence of Chinese lethal aid to Russia

British defence minister Grant Shapps accused China on Wednesday of providing or preparing to provide Russia with lethal aid for use by Moscow in its war against Ukraine.
Shapps told a conference in London that U.S. and British defence intelligence had evidence that "lethal aid is now, or will be, flowing from China to Russia and into Ukraine, I think it is a significant development".

UK Says China and Russia ‘Collaborating’ on Ukraine Combat Gear

UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps accused China of working to provide Russia with combat equipment in Ukraine.
Shapps made the remarks in a speech at a defense conference in London, in which he suggested that trade growth between the two neighbors had expanded into items with more obvious military applications. “Today, I can reveal that we have evidence that Russia and China are collaborating on combat equipment for use in Ukraine,” Shapps said on Wednesday, adding, “They’re covering each other’s back.”

Putin has ‘both eyes’ on Gotland, warns Sweden’s army chief

The Swedish island is strategically located in the Baltic Sea.

www.politico.eu

Russian leader Vladimir Putin has his eyes on the Swedish island of Gotland, warned Sweden’s defense chief Micael Bydén.

Gotland, Sweden's largest island and comparable in size to the smallest U.S. state of Rhode Island, is strategically located in the middle of the Baltic Sea — between Stockholm and Russia's Kaliningrad exclave.

The Russian defense ministry announced a plan Tuesday to expand the country's territorial waters in the Baltic Sea near its maritime border with Lithuania and Finland, sparking international concern.

“I'm sure that Putin even has both eyes on Gotland. Putin's goal is to gain control of the Baltic Sea,” Bydén, Sweden's supreme commander of the armed forces, told newspapers of the German editorial network RND.

“If Russia takes control and seals off the Baltic Sea, it would have an enormous impact on our lives — in Sweden and all other countries bordering the Baltic Sea. We can’t allow that,” Bydén said. "The Baltic Sea must not become Putin's playground where he terrifies NATO members.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Shared by a Ukrainian intelligence official: the Security Service of Ukraine’s Sea Baby naval drones are now equipped with Grad MLRS and have been used in combat. On Monday, they struck Russian positions on the Kinburn Spit in occupied Mykolaiv region, the official said.

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Future Ukrainian F-16 pilots are now training on French Air Force Alpha Jets in Europe.

Ten Ukrainian pilots graduated from elementary flying training with the RAF in March, and are now conducting advanced fast jet training with the French Air Force.
The OP Interstorm mission is a combined effort to train completely new Ukrainian pilots from the ground up on NATO standard equipment, eventually culminating in F-16 training and deployment likely next year.
Of note; this is separate from Danish/Dutch training and donation program, which took experienced Ukrainian pilots and put them through F-16 training immediately.

The pilots in the Franco-British training effort will be trained on NATO systems from the ground up.

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A Ukrainian Telegram channel shared a photo of a new Russian UAV used in Ukraine. While its name, manufacturer, and other details remain unclear, its design is suggestive of a one-way-attack drone. It’s immediately drawn comparisons to ZALA Aero’s “Italmas” (Izdeliye 54) seen last year, although as you can see the design is different. 1/x

Russia’s Stratim Design Bureau is also developing a one-way attack UAV (the “Yastreb”) that it bills as a budget analogue of the Shahed/Geran. But here too, the design is quite different from the UAV seen in the photo above. 2/x

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ALERT Suddeutsche Zeitung @SZ reports that a cache of explosives & detonators was found *deliberately buried* just hundreds of meters from a section of the #NATO oil/refined products pipeline network southwest of Heidelberg, Germany.

Investigators have not attributed the incident yet, but it comes at a time of increasing concern about #Russian responsibility for a wide range of critical infrastructure attacks across Europe.

Video: https://x.com/BBCSteveR/status/1793174307667091748

In today’s Russian papers: tactical nuclear weapons drills. Plus, the unveiling of “the Russian car industry’s latest model” (created in China). #ReadingRussia

Thread: https://x.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1793074692913549770

Russia conducted an exercise in which it practiced starting a nuclear war. A short thread.
We get to see a convoy of Iskander vehicles -- a very rare security vehicle, some transloaders, some containerized missiles (ballistic and cruise) and some support vehicles.
We also get to see what seems to be a warhead convoy, although we don't have great reference imagery. Still, we see a different, also very rare security vehicle and some mundane looking trucks, which isn't much but its what we'd expect for the 12 GUMO.

Russia blurred the warheads on the Iskander SRBMs --which looked like inert training models; see the fins -- so this is very theatrical but probably uneccessary.
We see a new (to us) canister for the Iskander cruise missile. The ports are in different places than in any version we've seen before. The warhead and guidance are located in different places in the nuclear and conventional versions. That *may* be why the ports are different.
We also see some pretty normal pre-flight operations for a Tu-22M Backfire bomber and a MiG-31K. Not much to see there, but then again I am not a big airplane guy.
So, yeah, the Russians really practiced starting a nuclear war and went out of their way to make sure that is super, duper clear. Good times.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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New threat assessment by the Norwegian Police Security Service and Intelligence Service warns of increased threat of sabotage against actors involved in Norwegian arms deliveries to Ukraine.

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Jake Sullivan, within hours, contradicts @grantshapps’ claim this morning that China has sent or will soon send lethal aid to Russia. “We have not seen that to date. I look forward to speaking with the UK to make sure that we have a common operating picture.”

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I would wait before leaping to conclusions. A defence source tells me: UK intelligence does indeed have evidence of Chinese lethal aid, that parts of the US system (presumably DIA or others in IC) have seen it and that the evidence is being shared with allies more broadly.

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Russia is adding barriers around the Crimean bridge to defend against Ukraine’s naval drones.

The bridge was last damaged by naval drones in July 2023.

Romanian President names condition of supplying Ukraine with Patriot system

Klaus Iohannis, President of Romania, has stated that a possible supply of a Romanian Patriot system for Ukraine must be approved by the Supreme Council of the National Defence, but it must not lead to a weakening of Romaniaâs air defence.

www.pravda.com.ua

Klaus Iohannis, President of Romania, has stated that a possible supply of a Romanian Patriot system for Ukraine must be approved by the Supreme Council of the National Defence, but it must not lead to a weakening of Romania's air defence.

Source: Iohannis, cited by Digi24, as reported by European Pravda

Details: Iohannis noted that he is not willing to discuss the issue of a possible supply of the Patriot system to Ukraine "in a public space" and would like it to be discussed with military experts and the Supreme Council of the National Defence of Romania, an advisory body under the head of the state.

Iohannis also stressed that the supply of a Patriot is a complicated process connected with a range of logistic and legal problems; "leave alone the fact that I’m under no circumstances ready to accept that Romania will be deprived of anti-missile and air defence".

Background:

Klaus Iohannis stated during his visit to the US in May that Romania might consider supplying Ukraine with one of its Patriot systems.

"Therefore, even if Romania finally makes some concessions, it must receive something in return. Otherwise, nothing will happen," the Romanian president added, indicating that "there is no time horizon" for this decision.

Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu said that Romanian Defence Minister Angel Tîlvăr has serious reservations about the possibility of providing Ukraine with a Patriot air defence system.

Later, Ciolacu added that the hardships in the discussion about providing Ukraine with a Patriot system do not mean it’s impossible.

 

[Dezbelief]

Londoners donate 110 non-compliant Ulez vehicles for Ukraine aid

Vehicles that do not meet Ulez emission rules can be donated to Ukraine instead of being scrapped.

www.google.com

More than 100 vehicles have been donated to Ukraine under London's Ultra Low Emissions Zone (Ulez) scrappage scheme, City Hall has said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Ukrainian authorities said Russia launched S-300 or S-400 missile strikes in broad daylight on Kharkiv and nearby cities on Thursday, killing at least 6 people and destroying civilian infrastructure. Zelensky called the attack "extremely brutal" and reiterated his calls to western partners for more air defence systems. Damage was reported at Vivat publishing house, Ukrainian railway infrastructure, and more.

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Kharkiv under attack, five big explosions near the city center. Under my window, humanitarian aid is being given out, the people don’t react at first, just hold their children close. But after the third and fourth explosion, they start going underground.

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Presumably the first video documenting the release of UMPB D-30SN guided bombs from a Russian Sukhoi Su-34 bomber.

Germany’s Ukraine air defense initiative falls flat

Berlin promised to help Ukraine source crucial air defenses, but the reality has been disappointing.

www.politico.eu

Germany has spent the past month talking up its Immediate Action on Air Defense initiative, as first reported by POLITICO, but partner nations are unwilling to send the desperately-needed batteries to Ukraine, two people familiar with the talks said.

While the German initiative also covers alternatives such as SAMP/T, NASAMS, HAWK, IRIS-T or S-300 air defense systems, it's the Raytheon-developed Patriots that are most effective against attacks. The benefits of Patriots are clear, with Ukrainian troops already trained to use the truck-mounted launcher system alongside radars and interceptors.

“There is no European leadership and no unity between the main actors,” said Nico Lange, a former chief of staff at Germany's defense ministry and now a fellow at think tank CEPA. “The sense of urgency has not increased, there’s more a sense of relief now that the Americans are delivering again.”

One of the reasons for the reluctance to send Patriots is that they are expensive — around $1 billion per unit — and each interceptor missile it fires costs millions.

What's more, countries aren't willing to accept the blow to their own air defenses necessary to make good on deliveries to Ukraine, said Fabian Hoffmann, a researcher working on missile technology at the University of Oslo.

"Germany is going into a huge capability gap because of its support of Ukraine," said Hoffman. "The order times are increasingly long for Patriot batteries."

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Another top Russian Defense Ministry arrested, per ⁦@kommersant⁩: Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin, who heads the military's communications directorate. More important: he's a top aide to the chief of the General Staff: General Valery Gerasimov.

Russia’s military seeks new recruits: crime suspects

61-year-old pop singer is among those brought to frontline in mobilisation drive

www.ft.com

For Moscow to maintain its upper hand on the battlefield, however, it may soon need to go beyond its creative recruitment strategies, according to a person close to the Russian defence establishment.

“The government can keep riding on this system for a while,” the person said, but “by the end of this year, or early next year, a new partial mobilisation wave will become inevitable”.

As long as the Kremlin shunned another mobilisation wave, a significant Russian offensive would not be possible this summer, the person said.

“The Russian authorities, at least for now, are still ready to sacrifice some operational successes on the front to shield the rest of society from the war,” they said.

Some regions in Russia are already struggling to meet recruitment quotas. In the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, one councillor said the city mainly sent “alcoholics, homeless people, abusers and convicts” to the war. He explained that only two men were recruited in February from his central district because it was a more affluent one and potential draftees lived on the fringes of the city.

Another councillor replied that the city was deploying new approaches and “starting to work with debt collectors” to get more people into the army in exchange for debt relief.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine under threat of new front in Sumy region

By carrying out an offensive in the Kharkiv region and concentrating troops near Sumy, Moscow wants to force Kyiv to stretch its battle lines, potentially compromising its other positions.

www.lemonde.fr

By opening up a new front in northern Ukraine, Russia is betting that the Ukrainians, exhausted by more than two years of war, will be unable to maintain their positions across the entire 1,000-kilometer-long battlefront. "By crossing the border at this point, the Russians are stretching the battle line and forcing the Ukrainians to make lateral troop transfers, which could weaken their positions elsewhere, in the east or south of the country," explained Thibault Fouillet, scientific director of the Institute for Strategy and Defense Studies.
In reality, the conquest of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second most populous city (it had a population of 1.4 million before the war), seems beyond Russia's reach, even though their most advanced units are only 30 kilometers from the city. "However, that's not their objective. What the Russians want is to force the Ukrainians to move their best-mechanized brigades, the ones holding the front in the Donbas, into the region," explained Stéphane Audrand, an international risk consultant and reserve officer, who sees this tactic as "a lesson" for the French army. "The Russians demonstrate that sending out poorly trained recruits with the wrong weapons can be enough to push ahead. Numbers matter!"

More worryingly, the Ukrainian army has been warning for several days that new enemy troops are gathering further north, near the Sumy region. According to military sources quoted by the American think-tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Moscow has already amassed between 9,000 and 10,000 troops on the other side of the border. "Russian forces are concentrating limited, understaffed, and incohesive forces in the Sumy direction, but even such a grouping of Russian forces will be able to achieve the likely desired effect of drawing and fixing Ukrainian forces in the international border area," warned the ISW.
The threat is made all the more serious by the Ukrainians' claim that they are unable to strike at these groupings behind their border. Kamikaze drones are ineffective against moving targets, and remotely piloted FPV (First Person View) drones do not have sufficient range. Missiles and glide bombs supplied by the West could reach Moscow's troops, but Kyiv is forbidden to use them to bomb Russian soil. This policy effectively creates a "sanctuary" from which Moscow's troops can prepare their attacks without being troubled, as Zelensky has repeatedly denounced in recent days.

‘Everything is burning’: Battles rage outside Kharkiv as Ukraine tries to hold back Russian advance

There are some towns that Ukraine can just never afford to lose, and Lyptsi is one of them.

But the grip the nation keeps is tenuous: The streets are aflame from an airstrike moments earlier when we race in, under the cover of darkness. Night affords them the only respite from drone assault; the hours before we arrive have seen the town hit eight times.

Yet the soldiers of the 13th Khartiia National Guard have to endure, as the stakes here are huge. Russia’s relentless onslaught has a key goal: If they take Lyptsi, then they can position artillery within range of Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, 20 minutes down the road.

Down in a bunker, Oleksandr, a commander, looks at one of his many drone feeds. “You saw yourself how everything is burning. It is like that every night.”

His men were among the first to tackle Russia’s new advance into Kharkiv region nearly two weeks ago. He says they are fighting trained professional soldiers.

“We can see it from their equipment and tactics,” he says. “They’re not sending just anyone into the assaults.”

His stare lengthens when asked about what fortifications were in place before the surprise Russian attack. “Nothing was prepared here. Nothing. Just nothing. All the positions are being built by the hands of infantry.”

Outside, the night is shaken by more blasts. “Three weeks ago the civilians were living a peaceful life here. Rebuilding, everything was all right,” he says. “And now most of the houses are ruined.”

As we leave, a loud drone buzzes overhead, close by. Our escort does not flinch or run. I ask if the drone is friendly. “How the f*** should I know?” he replies, tugging on a cigarette.

All around the city of Kharkiv, home to an estimated million civilians, Ukrainian forces are trying to hold back a persistent Russian assault from multiple angles. Over a week reporting in the villages around the city, CNN saw Ukrainian units holding their positions at great peril and risk, and sometimes using aged and scant artillery to fend off a much better equipped Russian force, able to thwart their most basic maneuvers with huge numbers of drones.

Another unit is forced to use a Soviet artillery gun made in the 1940s. Hidden in dense foliage, its metal is rusty in parts, limiting how often it can be fired. Artun, their commander, uses newer Polish shells, but now only fires 10 a day, when in the autumn it was 100.

Drones are “a big problem,” Artun says. “I have shrapnel in me as a keepsake,” he adds, referring to the remnants of a Russian Lancet drone still in his hand and stomach, which the surgeons could not remove. “But there are certain actions that can save you from drones.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

F-16 update: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily

The first batch of Ukrainian pilots have graduated from F-16 training at an Arizona military base, a crucial step toward putting modern, American-made fighter jets in Ukraine’s skies, Capt. ERIN HANNIGAN, a spokesperson with the Air National Guard, told our own LARA SELIGMAN.

The pilots had been training at the 162d National Guard Air Force Base in Tucson. Hannigan would not confirm how many have graduated or the exact date of graduation “out of abundance of caution for their safety.”

The pilots are now headed to Europe for additional training, according to a person with knowledge of their movements. Ukraine is slated to receive more than 60 F-16s from Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium.

Video: https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1793727987126292670

A missile attack on Crimea is happening right now.

Poland Tightens Ukraine Aid Hub Security Over Sabotage Concerns

Polish authorities are stepping up security around the main transit hub for foreign military aid to Ukraine as a series of arrests announced this week lay bare mounting concerns over Russian-backed sabotage operations.
Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak confirmed that measures are being taken to boost security around the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport. Located less than 100 km (62 miles) from the Ukrainian border, the facility has handled as much as 90% of western materiel headed to the frontline. It’s also become a main stopover point for foreign officials visiting Kyiv.
“We are facing a foreign state that is conducting hostile and — in military parlance — kinetic action on Polish territory,” Siemoniak said in an interview in Warsaw, without elaborating on security measures at the airport. “There has never been anything like this before.”
The minister said Poland is grappling with an unprecedented level of foreign interference after Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that as many as 12 people had been detained as part of a crackdown on alleged acts of sabotage directed from Russia. The cases involve arson, attempted arson as well as physical attacks.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia, in New Push, Increasingly Disrupts Ukraine’s Starlink Service

Russia has deployed advanced tech to interfere with Elon Musk’s satellite internet service, Ukrainian officials said, leading to more outages on the northern front battle line.

www.nytimes.com

Just before Russian troops pushed across the Ukrainian northern border this month, members of Ukraine’s 92nd Assault Brigade lost a vital resource. Starlink satellite internet service, which soldiers use to communicate, collect intelligence and conduct drone attacks, had slowed to a crawl.
Operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, Starlink has been critical to the Ukrainian military since the earliest days of the war with Russia. Without the full service, Ukrainian soldiers said, they couldn’t quickly communicate and share information about the surprise onslaught and resorted to sending text messages. Their experiences were repeated across the new northern front line, according to Ukrainian soldiers, officials and electronics warfare experts.
At the heart of the outages: increased interference from Russia.
As Russian troops made gains this month near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, they deployed stronger electronic weapons and more sophisticated tools to degrade Starlink service, Ukrainian officials said. The advances pose a major threat to Ukraine, which has often managed to outmaneuver the Russian military with the help of frontline connectivity and other technology, but has been on the defensive against the renewed Russian advance.
The new outages appeared to be the first time the Russians have caused widespread disruptions of Starlink. If they continue to succeed, it could mark a tactical shift in the conflict, highlighting Ukraine’s vulnerability and dependence on the service provided by Mr. Musk’s company. As the United States and other governments work with SpaceX, the disruptions raise broader questions about Starlink’s reliability against a technically sophisticated adversary.
Starlink works by beaming an internet connection down from satellites revolving around Earth. The signals are received on the ground by pizza-box-size terminal dishes, which then distribute the connection like a Wi-Fi router to laptops, phones and other devices nearby. Starlink has provided Ukraine with vital internet service since 2022, with soldiers relying on it to guide internet-connected drones that are used for surveillance and as weapons, among other tasks.
In an interview this week, Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s digital minister, said Russia’s recent attacks against Starlink appeared to use new and more advanced technology. The service previously held up remarkably well against interference on battlefields, where there has been widespread electronic warfare, radio jamming and other communication disruptions.

“We’re losing the electronic warfare fight,” said Ajax, the call sign for the deputy commander of the 92nd’s Achilles strike drone battalion, who in an interview described the challenges his troops faced after Starlink connectivity failed.
“One day before the attacks, it just shut down,” said Ajax, who would be quoted only on the condition of being named by his call sign, in keeping with Ukrainian military policy. “It became super, super slow.”
The disruptions put the entire unit at a disadvantage, said a drone pilot who goes by the call sign Kartel. During the first armored attacks of the Russian offensive this month, he said, he was in a garage without food or a sleeping bag. His team began to launch drone attacks but was hindered by the connection issues with Starlink. Communicating became so slow that soldiers had to use text messages sent across chat apps, he said — and even then it took a while for the messages to send.
“During the first hours the front line was very dynamic. The enemy was moving. And we were moving as well,” he said. “We needed to be fast in communicating.”
Over three days, he said, the unit held off the Russians, but not without difficulties. “It made everything more complicated,” he said. “Everything was more time consuming.”
Kari A. Bingen, a former U.S. Defense Department official and an expert on electronic warfare, said Starlink and other satellite communications could be disrupted by the use of a high-power radio frequency to overwhelm the connection links. The invisible attacks are typically done from a vehicle with a large radio tower attached to the top, she said.
“It’s naturally in the cross hairs of Russian forces,” said Ms. Bingen, now the director of the aerospace security project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington. “It degrades Ukrainian forces from being able to communicate on the battlefield.”
Explanations for Starlink outages in Ukraine over the past year vary. Several experts said Russia had gotten better at interfering with the signal between the satellites and Starlink terminals on the ground by using powerful and precise jammers. Others suggested that the service had been disrupted by specialized electronic weapons mounted on drones, which can confuse Starlink’s GPS signals, the global positioning system that is used to help locate satellites.
Sharp increases in Starlink use can also degrade service. In some instances, technical restrictions intended to keep Russian forces from using Starlink have hurt service for Ukrainian soldiers along the front line. At other times, disruptions can be more random, such as earlier this month when SpaceX reported service problems worldwide because of solar storms.
Throughout the conflict, Ukrainian forces have tried various techniques to shield Starlink from attacks, including placing the terminals in holes dug in the ground and putting metal mesh over them. Infozahyst, a Ukrainian company that works with the military and specializes in building tools for electronic warfare, said it did not believe such improvised solutions were effective.

For Ajax, the Ukrainian commander, the loss of Starlink service brought back bad memories from the war. When he fought near the Russian border in 2022, his unit was sometimes cut off from Starlink, disrupting drone video feeds that were used for targeting artillery from a distance. In its place, the unit deployed soldiers to covertly watch enemy positions and direct attacks.
“It became the old way with radios,” he said. “We had to say, ‘Move left 100 foot.’ It was super strange.”

Video: https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1793942422138806460

When Turkey and India spent nearly $9 billion to buy S-400 batteries from Russia, this is not exactly the performance they had in mind. Watch the Russian S-400 system fire its load, and then an entire S-400 battery — four launchers and a radar — get wiped out by Ukrainian-operated ATACMS missiles.

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Purges in Russia's military. Shoigu pushed aside, and then arrests as of today:

1) Ivanov (deputy defmin)
2) Shamarin (deputy army GenStaff)
3) Kuznetsov (head personnel defmin)
4) Popov (ex-cmd 58th army)
5) Talayev (deputy fed prison Moscow)
6) Verteletsky (defmin procurement)

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Exclusive: Putin wants Ukraine ceasefire on current frontlines

Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines, four Russian sources told Reuters, saying he is prepared to fight on if Kyiv and the West do not respond.
Three of the sources, familiar with discussions in Putin's entourage, said the veteran Russian leader had expressed frustration to a small group of advisers about what he views as Western-backed attempts to stymie negotiations and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's decision to rule out talks.
"Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire – to freeze the war," said another of the four, a senior Russian source who has worked with Putin and has knowledge of top level conversations in the Kremlin.
He, like the others cited in this story, spoke on condition of anonymity given the matter's sensitivity.
For this account, Reuters spoke to a total of five people who work with or have worked with Putin at a senior level in the political and business worlds. The fifth source did not comment on freezing the war at the current frontlines.

The appointment last week of economist Andrei Belousov as Russia's defence minister was seen by some Western military and political analysts as placing the Russian economy on a permanent war footing in order to win a protracted conflict.

However, the sources said that Putin, re-elected in March for a new six-year term, would rather use Russia's current momentum to put the war behind him. They did not directly comment on the new defence minister.
Based on their knowledge of conversations in the upper ranks of the Kremlin, two of the sources said Putin was of the view that gains in the war so far were enough to sell a victory to the Russian people.
Europe's biggest ground conflict since World War Two has cost tens of thousands of lives on both sides and led to sweeping Western sanctions on Russia's economy.
Three sources said Putin understood any dramatic new advances would require another nationwide mobilisation, which he didn't want, with one source, who knows the Russian president, saying his popularity dipped after the first mobilisation in September 2022.
The national call up spooked part of the population in Russia, triggering hundreds of thousands of draft age men to leave the country. Polls showed Putin’s popularity falling by several points.
Peskov said Russia had no need for mobilisation and was instead recruiting volunteer contractors to the armed forces.
The prospect of a ceasefire, or even peace talks, currently seems remote.
Zelenskiy has repeatedly said peace on Putin's terms is a non-starter. He has vowed to retake lost territory, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. He signed a decree in 2022 that formally declared any talks with Putin "impossible."
One of the sources predicted no agreement could happen while Zelenskiy was in power, unless Russia bypassed him and struck a deal with Washington. However, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking in Kyiv last week, told reporters he did not believe Putin was interested in serious negotiations.

Putin's insistence on locking in any battlefield gains in a deal is non-negotiable, all of the sources suggested.
Putin would, however, be ready to settle for what land he has now and freeze the conflict at the current front lines, four of the sources said.
"Putin will say that we won, that NATO attacked us and we kept our sovereignty, that we have a land corridor to Crimea, which is true," one of them said, giving their own analysis.
Freezing the conflict along current lines would leave Russia in possession of substantial chunks of four Ukrainian regions he formally incorporated into Russia in September 2022, but without full control of any of them.
Such an arrangement would fall short of the goals Moscow set for itself at the time, when it said the four of Ukraine's regions - Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson - now belonged to it in their entirety.
Peskov said that there could be no question of handing back the four regions which were now permanently part of Russia according to its own constitution.
Another factor playing into the Kremlin chief's view that the war should end is that the longer it drags on, the more battle-hardened veterans return to Russia, dissatisfied with post-war job and income prospects, potentially creating tensions in society, said one of the sources, who has worked with Putin.

In the absence of a ceasefire, Putin wants to take as much territory as possible to ratchet up pressure on Ukraine while seeking to exploit unexpected opportunities to acquire more, three of the sources said.
Russian forces control around 18% of Ukraine and this month thrust into the northeastern region of Kharkiv.
Putin is counting on Russia's large population compared to Ukraine to sustain superior manpower even without a mobilisation, bolstered by unusually generous pay packets for those who sign up.
"Russia will push further," the source who has worked with Putin said.
Putin will slowly conquer territories until Zelenskiy comes up with an offer to stop, the person said, saying the Russian leader had expressed the view to aides that the West would not provide enough weapons, sapping Ukraine's morale.
U.S. and European leaders have said they will stand by Ukraine until its security sovereignty is guaranteed. NATO countries and allies say they are trying to accelerate deliveries of weapons.
“Russia could end the war at any time by withdrawing its forces from Ukraine, instead of continuing to launch brutal attacks against Ukraine’s cities, ports, and people every day,” the State Department said in response to a question about weapons supplies.
All five sources said Putin had told advisers he had no designs on NATO territory, reflecting his public comments on the matter. Two of the sources cited Russian concerns about the growing danger of escalation with the West, including nuclear escalation, over the Ukraine standoff.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine's long-range glide bomb blunted by Russian jamming

Russian jamming has kept many of Ukraine's relatively new long-range GLSDB bombs from hitting their intended targets, three people familiar with the challenges told Reuters.
Ukraine over the last year sought weapons with longer ranges than the 43 miles (69 km) of U.S.-provided GMLRS rockets so Kyiv could attack and disrupt Russian supply lines and muster points.
To answer that call, Boeing Co offered a new weapon to the Pentagon with a 100-mile (161-km) range, the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB). The glide-bomb has small wings that extend its reach, and it is comprised of the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) and the M26 rocket motor, both of which are common in U.S. inventories and relatively inexpensive.
But the GLSDB's navigation system, which enables it to be steered around obstacles like mountains and known anti-air defenses, has been targeted by Russian jamming, the three people briefed on he matter said.
While Boeing has said the weapon can defeat some jamming, one of the sources said it would take Boeing months to fix.

Russia's Small Diameter Bomb-Like Weapon Seen In Action For The First Time

For the first time, we’ve seen evidence of complete UMPB D-30SN glide bombs as well as of them being launched by a Su-34 Fullback.

www.twz.com

A little over two months after the first appearance of the wreckage of a new type of Russian glide bomb in the war in Ukraine, we now have imagery showing the complete weapon, including video of examples being launched. It appears that the standoff weapon is now better established in Russian service, which will pose additional problems for the hard-pressed Ukrainian air defense operators.

The new imagery of the UMPB D-30SN winged precision-guided bomb includes photos showing two examples under the wing of a Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) Su-34 Fullback strike aircraft. While the Su-34 is a notably big aircraft, the relatively diminutive size of the bomb is very obvious.

Thread: https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1793743639924920327

Donbas Area Situation Report: May 21-22

The frontline remains dynamic despite appearing static. Ukrainian forces reinforced Kharkiv to halt the Russian advance. The situation is still risky considering the thinned defenses. Thread
2/ Chasiv Yar

Russia identified weak points in the Kanal quarter, deploying infantry deep but failed to establish a foothold, and assaulting forces were eliminated by Ukrainian forces. Another attempt can be more successful, as Russians have additional forces available.
3/ Russian troops made minor tactical gains in the northern axis towards Chasiv Yar, from the Kalynivka area. Progress on the northern flank is still slow, despite initial efforts to reach the area quickly with a land bridge over the canal.
4/ South of Bakhmut

Russia periodically claims control of Klishchiivka, but it lies in ruins with no intact structures. It has been a grey zone for a while, which Russian tactical groups occasionally try to control but are eliminated by Ukrainian defenders on higher ground
5/ The situation is marked by daily Russian assaults yielding small results. The frequent rotation of Russian forces may eventually lead to outcomes favoring them. While the area isn't immediately threatened with capture, the situation is gradually tilting in Russia's favor
6/ Ocheretyne

Ocheretyne has received little mention recently, our team deems it one of the most dangerous fronts presently. Russian forces have amassed troops in the area, indicating intentions for further advancement either north of Ocheretyne or northwest toward Vozdvyzhenka
7/ The Solovyove area south of Ocheretyne is unstable, with Russians advancing tactically. Analysis shows that where Ukrainian artillery is scarce, Russian gains increase, indicated by reduced shelling or concentrated forces in staging areas.
8/ Krasnohorivka - Kurakhove area

Russian forces intensified assaults in Krasnohorivka with mechanized units, but gains were mostly limited. Since the Kurakhove area is well fortified, quick Russian advances are not expected. Yet, the threat of losing Krasnohorivka is high
9/ Summary

Zooming out, it's clear that Russians haven't achieved significant operational results in this offensive yet. Despite multiple tactical successes, there is no frontline collapse. Our team observes the movements of Russian reserves, suggesting their availability
10/ With Russia having reserves and vehicles for offensive operations, we shouldn't expect a reduction in their offensive pressure despite losses soon. Russian forces maintaining a presence in areas like near Sumy Oblast suggests the offensive hasn't peaked yet

‘They’ve grown back’: How Russia surprised the West and rebuilt its force

If the Kremlin keeps rebuilding its military faster than expected, it could present a longer-term and perhaps costlier problem for NATO.

www.defensenews.com

Indeed, if the Kremlin keeps rebuilding its forces faster than expected, it could present a longer-term and perhaps costlier problem for the NATO alliance. The U.S. government’s National Defense Strategy calls Russia an “acute threat,” second to the “pacing challenge” of China.

But Moscow’s own capacity may change that.

“They are doing better than we would have thought,” a senior U.S. defense official told Defense News on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive intelligence.

Still, European and American defense officials, along with experts on the Russian military, told Defense News the Kremlin’s force is reconstituting faster than expected. They gave three main reasons why.

The first is the resilience of Moscow’s defense industry.

During the war, Russia has almost tripled its defense budget, according to Richard Connolly, an expert on the country’s economy at the London-based Royal United Services Institute think tank. Russia is set to spend somewhere between $130 billion and $140 billion on defense in 2024, which is about 6% of gross domestic product and a third of the government’s overall budget, Connolly approximated.

But because costs and wages are lower in Russia than in high-income countries, like many in NATO, the Kremlin’s defense fund buys much more than it would in the United States. When that conversion is taken into account, Russia’s 2024 defense budget falls between $360 billion to $390 billion, Connolly estimated.

The spending trend itself has raised salaries. Working in the defense industry was once a middling career in Russia; it’s now lucrative and attracting more workers. Based on official Russian figures, which Connolly noted may be inflated, the number of people working in the defense industry rose 20% during the war, from 2.5 million to about 3 million now.

The funds have also gone toward procuring military hardware. Connolly estimates this share of the defense budget probably doubled during the war, helping Russia replace lost equipment.

Connolly said he doubts the state of Russia’s economy will factor into how the war ends. Moscow has a cadre of policy wonks guiding its country through sanctions, he noted, and they have lots of practice doing so. In fact, Putin recently replaced a general at the helm of the Defence Ministry with an economist.
The second reason is Russia’s ability to dodge financial penalties.

In 2022, the Biden administration and European partners passed a raft of sanctions meant to sink the Russian economy. These ranged from banning the sale of high-tech materials, such as microchips, to a price cap on Russian oil sales.

These haven’t worked, multiple analysts told Defense News. That’s in large part because Moscow has been able to reroute its supply lines through friendly countries.

Chief among those partners is China. From 2022 to 2023, trade between Russia and China grew more than 26%, hitting an all-time high of $240 billion, according to a report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

Beijing largely avoided sending weapons directly. Instead, Chinese companies became a vital supplier of the items Russia needed to build weapons itself — such as microchips and small electronics.

This leads to the third point: Russia’s reconstitution has relied on surprising levels of support from other U.S. adversaries, who, unlike China, have directly provided military aid to Russia.

Since October, North Korea has sent Russia about 10,000 shipping containers, which could include up to 3 million artillery rounds, according to U.S. government figures. Russia has fired dozens of North Korean ballistic missiles since last fall, an American diplomat told the U.N. in March.

Iran has also provided materiel. Specifically, it’s sent a somewhat plodding attack drone known in Tehran as the Shahed-136 and in Moscow as the Geran-2. Russia has deployed swarms of these to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses, firing more than 3,700 Shahed drones, of which there are several variants, during the war as of December, according to the Ukrainian government.

 

[beer 30]

Exclusive: Putin wants Ukraine ceasefire on current frontlines

Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines, four Russian sources told Reuters, saying he is prepared to fight on if Kyiv and the West do not respond.

I know it won't be popular around here but set up the meeting today.

 

[nightmare]

Exclusive: Putin wants Ukraine ceasefire on current frontlines

Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines, four Russian sources told Reuters, saying he is prepared to fight on if Kyiv and the West do not respond.

I know it won't be popular around here but set up the meeting today.

This is basically "you've surrendered" and this is the new border.

 

[beer 30]

Exclusive: Putin wants Ukraine ceasefire on current frontlines

Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines, four Russian sources told Reuters, saying he is prepared to fight on if Kyiv and the West do not respond.

I know it won't be popular around here but set up the meeting today.

This is basically "you've surrendered" and this is the new border.

New border yes, surrendered? no. You get to keep the rest of your country and government. I also think you negotiate. What Putin wants isn't necessarily what he will get if you negotiate properly.

 

[Chadstroma]

Exclusive: Putin wants Ukraine ceasefire on current frontlines

Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines, four Russian sources told Reuters, saying he is prepared to fight on if Kyiv and the West do not respond.
Three of the sources, familiar with discussions in Putin's entourage, said the veteran Russian leader had expressed frustration to a small group of advisers about what he views as Western-backed attempts to stymie negotiations and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's decision to rule out talks.
"Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire – to freeze the war," said another of the four, a senior Russian source who has worked with Putin and has knowledge of top level conversations in the Kremlin.
He, like the others cited in this story, spoke on condition of anonymity given the matter's sensitivity.
For this account, Reuters spoke to a total of five people who work with or have worked with Putin at a senior level in the political and business worlds. The fifth source did not comment on freezing the war at the current frontlines.

The appointment last week of economist Andrei Belousov as Russia's defence minister was seen by some Western military and political analysts as placing the Russian economy on a permanent war footing in order to win a protracted conflict.

However, the sources said that Putin, re-elected in March for a new six-year term, would rather use Russia's current momentum to put the war behind him. They did not directly comment on the new defence minister.
Based on their knowledge of conversations in the upper ranks of the Kremlin, two of the sources said Putin was of the view that gains in the war so far were enough to sell a victory to the Russian people.
Europe's biggest ground conflict since World War Two has cost tens of thousands of lives on both sides and led to sweeping Western sanctions on Russia's economy.
Three sources said Putin understood any dramatic new advances would require another nationwide mobilisation, which he didn't want, with one source, who knows the Russian president, saying his popularity dipped after the first mobilisation in September 2022.
The national call up spooked part of the population in Russia, triggering hundreds of thousands of draft age men to leave the country. Polls showed Putin’s popularity falling by several points.
Peskov said Russia had no need for mobilisation and was instead recruiting volunteer contractors to the armed forces.
The prospect of a ceasefire, or even peace talks, currently seems remote.
Zelenskiy has repeatedly said peace on Putin's terms is a non-starter. He has vowed to retake lost territory, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. He signed a decree in 2022 that formally declared any talks with Putin "impossible."
One of the sources predicted no agreement could happen while Zelenskiy was in power, unless Russia bypassed him and struck a deal with Washington. However, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking in Kyiv last week, told reporters he did not believe Putin was interested in serious negotiations.

Putin's insistence on locking in any battlefield gains in a deal is non-negotiable, all of the sources suggested.
Putin would, however, be ready to settle for what land he has now and freeze the conflict at the current front lines, four of the sources said.
"Putin will say that we won, that NATO attacked us and we kept our sovereignty, that we have a land corridor to Crimea, which is true," one of them said, giving their own analysis.
Freezing the conflict along current lines would leave Russia in possession of substantial chunks of four Ukrainian regions he formally incorporated into Russia in September 2022, but without full control of any of them.
Such an arrangement would fall short of the goals Moscow set for itself at the time, when it said the four of Ukraine's regions - Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson - now belonged to it in their entirety.
Peskov said that there could be no question of handing back the four regions which were now permanently part of Russia according to its own constitution.
Another factor playing into the Kremlin chief's view that the war should end is that the longer it drags on, the more battle-hardened veterans return to Russia, dissatisfied with post-war job and income prospects, potentially creating tensions in society, said one of the sources, who has worked with Putin.

In the absence of a ceasefire, Putin wants to take as much territory as possible to ratchet up pressure on Ukraine while seeking to exploit unexpected opportunities to acquire more, three of the sources said.
Russian forces control around 18% of Ukraine and this month thrust into the northeastern region of Kharkiv.
Putin is counting on Russia's large population compared to Ukraine to sustain superior manpower even without a mobilisation, bolstered by unusually generous pay packets for those who sign up.
"Russia will push further," the source who has worked with Putin said.
Putin will slowly conquer territories until Zelenskiy comes up with an offer to stop, the person said, saying the Russian leader had expressed the view to aides that the West would not provide enough weapons, sapping Ukraine's morale.
U.S. and European leaders have said they will stand by Ukraine until its security sovereignty is guaranteed. NATO countries and allies say they are trying to accelerate deliveries of weapons.
“Russia could end the war at any time by withdrawing its forces from Ukraine, instead of continuing to launch brutal attacks against Ukraine’s cities, ports, and people every day,” the State Department said in response to a question about weapons supplies.
All five sources said Putin had told advisers he had no designs on NATO territory, reflecting his public comments on the matter. Two of the sources cited Russian concerns about the growing danger of escalation with the West, including nuclear escalation, over the Ukraine standoff.

You have to ask why he is willing...

Notice it is a ceasefire, which by definition is temporary. Why would he want a ceasefire rather than negotiating a treaty to recognize the land taken as Russian? Because his goal is not and never has been to take part of Ukraine but to take all of Ukraine.

How would a ceasefire help achieve that? Currently the Russians own the strategic initiative. Why would they surrender that with a ceasefire? Because they have gained this by doing three things... First, by providing cannon fodder new troops through their recruiting of basically outside Moscow/St. Petersburg and targeting ethnic minorities in the Russian Federation which are largely poverty stricken and the bonus and wages of signing up are much better than anything that they otherwise have access to. As through the course of Russian history for hundreds of years, the sheer number of people that they can throw into the fight without any care of their survival is tremendous. Second, they have an unbelievable amount of Soviet era obsolete tanks and other equipment that they are refurbishing and throwing into the fight. Similar to the sheer manpower, they have mostly replenished their 2,600 tank losses by taking these old tanks out of storage. There is little care of effectiveness or survivability because it is all about superior numbers. Even T-55's are now being used and before they were used as essentially artillery pieces protected closer to the rear areas but have increasingly been used in assaults along with newer but still old and outdated T-62's, T-72's, and T-80's. For reference, the T-55's were first built in the 40's with upgrades going into the 50's. Finally, the reliance on countries like Iran, North Korea and in certain areas, China. Providing either the actual weapons (Shaheed drones from Iran, artillery shells from N. Korea and parts for Russian production in China).

Through those avenues, the Russians have regrouped their military faster than Western thinking thought possible but that reconstitution is more a quantitive regrouping and lacking qualitative effectiveness and capability. The Russian military is in tatters. They have lost 1/3 of their Black Sea fleet, they have suffered high numbers of losses in airpower and tanks, APCs, artillery, anti-air, etc.

I don't believe Putin would throw this out there unless there was concern about them coming to a point where what they have been doing to keep the war going is going to start breaking down in areas. Specifically what are those areas? I couldn't exactly say but the article points out the popularity issue (which is really about remaining in power) but also the Soviet reserves are increasingly harder to refurbish as they presumably cherry picked the best of the what they have and the vast numbers are dwindling. Another area is the economy. It has been much more resilient than Western thinking would have allowed but this is largely based on decisions that are borrowing from the future and will eventually have costs to it.

I take this as an encouraging indication for the Ukrainians that the current Russian advances and ownership of the initiative are coming to a close. I don't see any real route forward to a ceasefire. It would only serve the Russians to reorganize and perhaps be able to do more than just throw bodies and outdated equipment into the fire.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Russia currently has the initiative and several advantages on the battlefield. Western ammunition production capacity is increasing, which will reduce some of these advantages next year. Russia's minimum goal is to capture the rest of the Donbas, and I'm skeptical that Russia would pursue a ceasefire this year as long as it believes it can make further gains on the battlefield.

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Over the past week, Russia has deployed units from the Russian MOD's Africa Corps alongside regular Russian forces and Storm-Z units during their offensive on Vovchansk, northern Kharkiv.
The Russian MOD's Africa Corps, which emerged in December 2023, consists of over 2,000 regular soldiers and officers, as well as experienced mercenaries, many of whom previously served in the Wagner Group. Africa Corps detachments have highly likely previously deployed to Syria, Libya, Burkina Faso and Niger.
The Russian MOD almost certainly redeployed detachments from the Africa Corps to the Ukrainian border during April 2024 in preparation for this offensive. It is highly likely that Russia is reinforcing its war on Ukraine with resources previously assigned to Africa.

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Reuters' exclusive is nothing new: since last September, Putin has been signaling that Moscow was ready to talk, only recently adding that a ceasefire should not be used to rearm Ukraine. As I wrote multiple times, Putin has never intended to take control over all of Ukraine by force—the unchanging idea is that Ukraine must stop resisting and start discussing the terms of its capitulation. The ceasefire is very beneficial for Putin: it allows him to keep what he has already taken, politically weakens the Ukrainian leadership, demotivates the West from supplying arms, and makes troop deployment useless. That’s how Putin intends to win the war.

But if the West does not respond to these signals and does not coerce Kyiv into negotiations, the Kremlin may annex the Kharkiv region in the autumn, using the same procedure as in September 2022 for four Ukrainian regions, to show that the price of escalation will increase if Russian signals are ignored.

Image: https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1794130739992097032

US-supplied M1A1 Abrams MBT in Ukrainian service, sporting a significant number of field modifications, including Kontakt-1 ERA bricks and improvised cage armor.

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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg:

"The time has come for allies to consider whether they should lift some of the restrictions they have put on the use of weapons they have donated to Ukraine."

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The US officially announced a new, $275 million-worth military aid package for Ukraine.

The package includes ammunition for M142 HIMARS/M270 MLRS, 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems, precision aerial munitions and more.

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“The destruction since March is worse than anything we’ve seen since the full-scale invasion, but I’m confident we can overcome these attacks.” DTEK CEO @TimchenkoMaximquoted in the @Telegraph.

@mattotelereports on the intense #FightForLight happening in Ukraine as DTEK and other energy providers work to rapidly make the necessary repairs to the energy system ahead of the looming winter season.

More: https://dtek.com/en/media-center/in...-lights-on-after-russia-attacks-power-plants/

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Russian early warning SHF radar Voronezh DM near Armavir was attacked by (presumably Ukrainian) drones. Another piece of Russian nuclear infrastructure targeted during this conflict

 

[GenX fan]

Russia wants a ceasefire, fine. Russia wants to maintain the current frontline, fine.

Immediately admit the remaining of Ukraine into NATO. Russia wants to advance further into NATO and f around and find out what happens, so be it.

 

[Orange&Blue]

Exclusive: Putin wants Ukraine ceasefire on current frontlines

Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines, four Russian sources told Reuters, saying he is prepared to fight on if Kyiv and the West do not respond.

I know it won't be popular around here but set up the meeting today.

for a ceasefire? no.

all it will result in is the west relaxing and not continuing to support ukraine. meanwhile russia will continue to build at a faster rate than ukraine+limited Western support while rebuilding their army ranks so they won't have to do another mobilization.

If Putin wants to do this, think about why.

 

[Orange&Blue]

Russia wants a ceasefire, fine. Russia wants to maintain the current frontline, fine.

Immediately admit the remaining of Ukraine into NATO. Russia wants to advance further into NATO and f around and find out what happens, so be it.

Hungary will veto any admission of Ukraine into NATO.

I think Putin has reached, or will, and agreement with his lapdog, Viktor Orbán, and that is why he is willing to do this ceasefire as he knows Ukraine won't get admitted.

instead they will continue to be isolated and he can recoup his loses and go for the jugular 9+ months later.

 

[GenX fan]

Russia wants a ceasefire, fine. Russia wants to maintain the current frontline, fine.

Immediately admit the remaining of Ukraine into NATO. Russia wants to advance further into NATO and f around and find out what happens, so be it.

Hungary will veto any admission of Ukraine into NATO.

I think Putin has reached, or will, and agreement with his lapdog, Viktor Orbán, and that is why he is willing to do this ceasefire as he knows Ukraine won't get admitted.

instead they will continue to be isolated and he can recoup his loses and go for the jugular 9+ months later.

Agree with you completely and it is scary.

I know that the bigger NATO countries can pressure the smaller ones to do what's right.
Orban should fall in line or risk sending his country back to the stone age.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukrainians have captured a T-90M for the first time which is their top serial production tank used on the front. The T-14 is their newer one but production is limited (something like a couple of dozen at the most) and there is high suspicion that it is extremely flawed and not operational.

 

[Chadstroma]

Putin's plot to choke Europe backfires as he now 'cannot sell' huge stockpile of gas​

Story by Callum Hoare

Russia is facing "enormous difficulties" selling its vast reserves of gas in a move which could impact its ability to continue the war in Ukraine.

According to new analysis from the Atlantic Council think tank, Gazprom - the country's state energy giant - is struggling to break new markets.

It comes after the world's largest publicly listed natural gas company restricted its supplies into Europe in 2022 in a bid to starve Kyiv's allies ahead of the winter.

But Western nations were quickly able to wean themselves off Russian gas in order to become self-sufficient.

Gazprom's revenue fell by 41 percent year-over-year in the first half of 2023, while sales profits dropped 71 percent and gas production by 25 percent.

Gazprom Group, which also includes oil and power businesses, announced a net loss of 629 billion rubles [$6.9 billion] for last year.

Russia is now isolated, with a new pipeline to link it with close ally China estimated to cost around $100billion - which is money it cannot afford to use.

Moreover, China is not expected to need additional gas supples until after 2040.

These issues, the experts deem "leaves Gazprom in limbo for the foreseeable future".

Berlin-based energy analyst Thomas O'Donnell told Newsweek that Gazprom's woes have shown Putin's tactic to use Russian gas as a lever against Europe had backfired.

He said: "It was intended to shock Europe and force them into submission with an energy war to prevent their acting in solidarity with Ukraine to his surprise, this did not happen.

"Putin has a lot of gas and he can't sell it."

 

[Chadstroma]

Media: Ukraine refuses to accept some Leopard 1 tanks from Germany, Denmark due to defects​

Story by Kateryna Denisova

Ukraine refused to accept some outdated Leopard 1A5 battle tanks from Denmark and Germany due to numerous defects, Danish broadcaster DR reported on May 24, citing Danish Defense Ministry documents.

The defense ministers of Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands promised to send Kyiv at least 100 refurbished Leopard 1A5s from industrial stocks.

The documents said the first tanks were scheduled to be delivered in July 2023. However, the shipment was reportedly delayed because the German defense company KMW faced difficulties in preparing them.

Only 20 tanks had been delivered as of September last year, DR wrote. After receiving and inspecting them, Ukraine found that 18 of the 20 tanks received had minor defects or malfunctions, and two had “more serious defects,” the documents said.

Some tanks were reportedly delivered with guns that could not fire.

“This means that none of the newly repaired and delivered tanks were ready for combat,” the broadcaster reported.

Ukraine refused to accept any tanks in the fall of 2023, telling Denmark and Germany that it could not use them due to their poor condition.

The Kyiv Independent sent a request for comment to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry but has not received a response at the time of publication.

Denmark’s Defense Ministry confirmed to DR that Berlin decided to accept help from Danish mechanics. As of now, “more than 90 tanks” have been repaired, but not all have been delivered.

Berlin, Ukraine's second-largest military donor after Washington, has handed over another delivery of military aid to Ukraine, the German government said on May 22. The latest tranche included Leopard 1 tanks from Germany and Denmark, dozens of reconnaissance drones, ammunition, and other aid.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian jamming leaves some high-tech U.S. weapons ineffective in Ukraine

Many U.S.-made satellite-guided ammunitions in Ukraine have failed to withstand Russian jamming technology, prompting Kyiv to stop using certain types of Western-provided armaments after effectiveness rates plummeted, according to senior Ukrainian military officials and confidential internal Ukrainian assessments obtained by The Washington Post.
Russia’s jamming of the guidance systems of modern Western weapons, including Excalibur GPS-guided artillery shells and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, which can fire some U.S.-made rockets with a range of up to 50 miles, has eroded Ukraine’s ability to defend its territory and has left officials in Kyiv urgently seeking help from the Pentagon to obtain upgrades from arms manufacturers.

Ukraine’s military command prepared the reports between fall 2023 and April 2024 and shared them with the U.S. and other supporters, hoping to develop solutions and open up direct contact with weapons manufacturers. In interviews, Ukrainian officials described an overly bureaucratic process that they said had complicated a path toward urgently needed adjustments to improve the failing weaponry.

U.S.-made guided munitions provided to Ukraine typically were successful when introduced, but often became less so as Russian forces adapted. Now, some arms once considered potent tools no longer provide an edge.
In a conventional war, the U.S. military might not face the same difficulties as Ukraine because it has a more advanced air force and robust electronic countermeasures, but Russia’s capabilities nonetheless put heavy pressure on Washington and its NATO allies to continue innovating.
“I’m not saying no one was worried about it before, but now they’re starting to worry,” one senior Ukrainian military official said.
“As we share information with our partners and our partners share with us, the Russians definitely also share with China,” the official added. “And even if they don’t share with China … China monitors events in Ukraine.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created a modern testing ground for Western arms that had never been used against a foe with Moscow’s ability to jam GPS navigation.
Innovation is a feature of virtually every conflict, including the war in Ukraine, where each side deploys technology and novel changes to outfox the other and exploit vulnerabilities. The Russian military has been adept at electronic warfare for years, analysts and officials said, investing in systems that can overwhelm the signals and frequency of electronic components, such as GPS navigation, which helps guide some precision munitions to their targets.
Ukrainians initially found success using Excalibur 155mm rounds, with more than 50 percent accurately hitting their targets early last year, according to the confidential assessment, which was based on direct visual observations. Over the next several months, that dropped below 10 percent, with the assessment pointing to Russian GPS jamming as the culprit.
The study cautioned that far fewer shells were fired later in the research period, and many were not observed, leaving the precise success rate unclear.
But even before the United States ceased deliveries, Ukrainian artillerymen had largely stopped using Excalibur, the assessments said, because the shells are harder to use compared with standard howitzer rounds, requiring time-consuming special calculations and programming. Now they are shunned altogether, military personnel in the field said.
The senior Ukrainian official said Kyiv shared this feedback with Washington but got no response. The Ukrainians have faced a similar challenge with guided 155mm shells provided by other Western countries. Some employ guidance other than GPS, and it is unclear why they also became less effective. U.S. defense officials declined to address the Ukrainian assertion.

A web of Russian electronic warfare systems and air defenses menace Ukrainian pilots, the documents said, adding that some Russian jammers also scramble the navigation system of planes. The Russian defense is so dense, the assessment found, that there are “no open windows for the Ukrainian pilots where they feel that they are not at gunpoint.”
Despite some effort to thwart the jamming, potential fixes seem limited until the West delivers F-16 fighter jets, the assessment found. Such modern planes would allow Ukraine’s air force to push Russian pilots back, enabling the use of different kinds of weapons with greater range and ability to avoid some electronic warfare systems.
The aircraft-dropped JDAMs provide another example of declining effectiveness of weaponry.
Their introduction, in February 2023, was a surprise to Russia. But within weeks, success rates dropped after “non resistance” to jamming was revealed, according to the assessment. In that period, bombs missed their targets from as little as 65 feet to about three-quarters of a mile.
Ukraine provided feedback about the jamming problem, and the U.S. and weapons manufacturers delivered improved systems in May, the documents said. Since then, JDAMs have proved more resistant to jamming than other GPS-guided weapons, the assessment found, and accuracy improved to a hit rate above 60 percent over nine months in 2023.

HIMARS were celebrated during the first year of Russia’s invasion for their success in striking ammunition depots and command points behind enemy lines.
But by the second year, “everything ended: the Russians deployed electronic warfare, disabled satellite signals, and HIMARS became completely ineffective,” a second senior Ukrainian military official said. “This ineffectiveness led to the point where a very expensive shell was used” increasingly to strike lower-priority targets.
The Ukrainian military documents did not assess guided M30 or M31 munitions, which are fired from HIMARS launchers. But in January, Ukraine’s military command wrote a policy paper urging Western supporters to provide an alternative: M26 cluster munitions that also could be launched from multiple-launch rocket systems. These low-tech, unguided rockets are resistant to jamming, and the cluster submunitions can still hit targets in a wide area even if the shot is imprecise.
Kyiv still considers its HIMARS rockets effective, but Russian jamming can cause them to miss a target by 50 feet or more.
“When it’s, for example, a pontoon bridge … but there’s a 10-meter deviation, it ends up in the water,” the first Ukrainian official said.
Russian jamming signals are sent up from the ground and form a cone-shaped area. Any guided munition — or aircraft — passing through is at risk of interference.
A battalion commander, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to do so publicly, described flying a reconnaissance drone in foggy conditions last year in Bakhmut to track a HIMARS strike on a Russian position. On his screen, the commander watched in dismay as each rocket missed.

One way the Ukrainians counter Russia’s jamming is by targeting known electronic warfare systems with drones before using HIMARS. This has proved effective in some cases.
“Initially, there were no problems,” the first senior official added. “It was simple: the machine arrived. The button was pressed and there was a precise hit. Now, it’s more complicated.”
The official added, “The Americans are equipping HIMARS with additional equipment to ensure good geolocation.”
One U.S. weapon used by aircraft, the GBU-39 small-diameter bomb, has proved resilient to jamming, according to the confidential documents. Nearly 90 percent of dropped bombs struck their target, the assessment found.
Its smaller surface area makes it more difficult for Russian systems to detect and intercept, the documents said. Ukraine first received the aerial weapons, which has not been previously disclosed by the Pentagon, in November 2023.
The GBU-39 was also adapted for land use in HIMARS systems, a development that Pentagon officials said would increase the range of rocket artillery. But the modified weapons, known as Ground-Launched Small Diameter bombs, or GLSDB, proved ineffective compared to those launched from airplanes, Ukrainian officials said. The ground versions were tested in Ukraine, one official said, and the Americans are working on adjustments before providing them anew.

Senior Ukrainian military officials said Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles, provided by Britain, are less susceptible to Russian jamming because they do not rely solely on GPS but two other navigation systems, including an internal map that matches the terrain of its intended flight path. Russian air defenses nonetheless have had some success intercepting them.
The Ukrainians have also had success so far with U.S.-provided Army Tactical Missile System long-range missiles, which have a range of up to 190 miles, but they, too, can be targeted by Russian air defenses.

The Ukrainian officials said they expect that weapons effective on the battlefield now will similarly slump within a year.
“The Russians will learn how to fight it,” the second Ukrainian official said. “That’s how the arms race works.”