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***Official Round 2 Wagering Thread*** (1 Viewer)

kroyrunner89 said:
Cardinals +7 @ Saints 57

Ravens +6.5 @ Colts 44

Cowboys +2.5 @ Vikings 45.5

Jets +7.5 @ Chargers 42

Good luck guys!
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Cards getting 7Ravens getting 6.5

Cowboys/Vikings UNDER

Chargers laying 7.5 parlay with the OVER

no way the Jets contain the pass-happy Chargers, all 6'5" of their WR's.yeah,you can slow-down Vjax, but what about Naane, Gates, Floyd, Sproles, LT2, etc...

Indy,after resting for 4 weeks, gets to play the red-hot Ravens a team they beat by two pts earlier in the year..

Defensive battle in the Metrodome, Vikings winning a nail-biter , 17-13..Romo probably throws a late int to seal the win for the Vikings..

:(

Cards have the offense to run with Saints..now, if they can just stop the opposing team's TE..

 
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For the record I was 1-3 last week but hit on my lock with the Ravens +4...

This week I like the following...

NFC

Cards +7 - They have the offense to keep up with the Saints (who's defense isn't super either) and I think their defennse is better than it showed last week against the Packers. They might not win outright, but it will be closer than a TD.

Cowboys +2.5 - I'm getting scared b/c a lot of people like the 'Boys this week...but I'll stick to my initial gut feeling. Favre will be a sitting duck and should get sacked 5 or so times and cough up a turnover or two.

AFC

Colts -6.5 - Ravens beat up a mediocre Pats team, I think everyone can agree to that. The Colts have been an elite team all season and will be too much for the Ravens (who aren't world-beaters themselves). Plus I think it's obvious that if you contain Rice and let Flacco (4 completions last week) try and beat you, you should be able to outscore Baltimore. Colts win by a TD and cover.

Chargers -7 - This is where the rookie QB implodes. You know it's gonna happen. Chargers load up vs the run, pick off Sanchez 3x, put up about 30 points and win by 2 TDs. Lock of the week.

 
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Arizona (I think they will win outright)

Dallas (their defense will be the difference)

Baltimore (gotta take them and the points, given Indy's recent bad history when playing in the divisional round following a bye)

San Diego (will be close for most of the way, but Sanchez will make a few bad mistakes late, and SD will pull away and win by like 10-14)

 
To me, all four lines seem reasonable, and pretty much in phase with how the big voices are talking in the media.

I'd stay clear this week and wait for better spots.

 
Happy Ragnarok said:
To me, all four lines seem reasonable, and pretty much in phase with how the big voices are talking in the media.I'd stay clear this week and wait for better spots.
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That's no way for a degenerate gambler to think son.You better clear your head and come back in a few hours with your picks. :thumbup:
 
BRONG said:
Happy Ragnarok said:
To me, all four lines seem reasonable, and pretty much in phase with how the big voices are talking in the media.



I'd stay clear this week and wait for better spots.
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Um, there's only 3 more spots.
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Then by all means, jump in with all you've got and wager it on a coin toss. That's the way the guys who profit do it, after all. :rolleyes: Gambling shouldn't be about forcing action. If it is, you've got a problem.

 
Happy Ragnarok said:
BRONG said:
Happy Ragnarok said:
To me, all four lines seem reasonable, and pretty much in phase with how the big voices are talking in the media.



I'd stay clear this week and wait for better spots.
Click to expand...
Um, there's only 3 more spots.
Click to expand...
Then by all means, jump in with all you've got and wager it on a coin toss. That's the way the guys who profit do it, after all. :goodposting: Gambling shouldn't be about forcing action. If it is, you've got a problem.
Click to expand...
:thumbup: What a dork.
 
13.5 Point Teaser (1.70)

Arizona + 20.5

New York Jets + 21.0

Indianapolis + 7.0

Dallas + 16.0

7.0 Point Teaser (4.00)

Indianapolis + 0.5

Baltimore at Indianapolis (Over/Under) Over + 37.0

New York Jets at San Diego (Over/Under) Over + 35.5

San Diego +0.0

Dallas at Minnesota (Over/Under) Over + 38.5

Oof...

 
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I love this 2 team teaser:

SD laying 1

Dallas getting 9

The game that I have no pulse on is the NO Ari game. I have no idea what's gonna happen with that game so I'm staying away.

I also think that Indy covers 6.5

 
I like the totals better than the games personally.

I think the high number in the NO/AZ game will scare people away, but it is likely justified and then some. I think Arizona will continue to look great on offense and Warner will put up TDs in this one. NO all year has shown an ability to kick up the offense into full gear when they really need points to catch up or in a close game. That will be the case again here. I'm saying 35-34 ARI

I'm also liking the Jets/SD under. The Jets run defense took a beating last week and I expect SD to make that a huge part of their gameplan coming in. Only problem is, I really don't think its going to work. If the Jets can lock up Vincent Jackson w/ Revis and stop the run much better than last week, Rivers and Gates can only score so many points. Not surprisingly, I expect the Jets to play a conservative offensive game and struggle to put up much on SD. I'll go 20-10 SD

Gun to my head to pick a side, I like Arizona over the others, but I can also see a scenerio where the 7 points means very little once these 2 offenses get going.

 
Dragon1952 said:
MarshallPlan said:
Everyone likes the Chargers I see...
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At the time of your post, for those picking the actual spread, it was SD 4 - NYJ 4. Since then 2 more jumped on the Chargers.6-4 isn't exactly "everyone"
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Only guys who liked the Jets were Leroy and Brong who are actually decent gamblers. I am not counting stupid teaser plays on the Jets, because that's what they are, stupid.
 
I wasn't counting the teasers either, but sorry, I did mis-count. Jets = Brong, Leroy, duece2626....Chargers = Tanner, Stillers, Ghost, Leeroy, so 4-3

 
* Saints -7

I know a popular public play this week is Arizona +7, however I was keyed in on this play before I even knew the public percentages. Let's start by breaking down Arizona. For starters, I'm not going to read much into the offensive show they put on last week against the Packers, as the Green Bay defense was completely asleep. They were getting absolutely no pressure on Warner, and their receivers were constantly wide open. As well as Warner may have played, most quarterbacks in the NFL can succeed when they're throwing to wide open receivers. The Saints should have 10 out of 11 of their defensive starters healthy and ready to go in this one, the first time this can be said in many weeks. People read a lot into the regression of the Saints' defense since the Patriots game, but each week they've been holding out anywhere from 2-4 defensive starters due to injuries. They haven't been able to generate the same pressure on opposing QBs since then, and with the unit healthy again I expect them to get back to their strengths. Warner has shown that he's prone to turning the ball over when pressured, and with Boldin likely out, although it didn't impact the offense last week I expect it will a bit more in this one.

Defensively, the Cardinals have played one of the easiest schedules in the league as far as opposing pass offenses go. In games against top notch passing units, the Cardinals have been shredded this year, and against this spectacular Saints offense I don't expect this to change. Although the offense slowed a bit in recent weeks, the return of Jeremy Shockey should help them get back on track as he really does a lot for them out there, when not catching the ball then helping offer protection for Brees. I'm convinced that the Cardinals come back down to earth this week, and the Saints offense does their thing and puts 31+ points on the board. We should have an easy double digit win for the Saints, along the lines of 38-20.

* Ravens/Colts OVER 44

The first time these teams met, there were a ton of points left on the field. My comments last week about the Ravens struggling against strong passing teams hasn't changed, last week I chalk the Patriots' struggles up to an injured Randy Moss and Wes Welker not playing. Brady didn't look great either, and played one of the worst games of his playoff career. Manning won't make the same mistakes as the Patriots did, and will be able to throw all over this questionable Baltimore secondary. Also, in the first meeting, the Colts only scored 17 points, despite throwing for over 9 yards per pass attempt. They suffered from three turnovers, and in this matchup I think that they'll take better care of the ball and put points on the board fairly easily. On the Ravens' side of the ball, although they're likely going to try to move the ball on the ground, I expect the Colts to force them into winning through the air. Baltimore had to settle for five field goals against the Colts in their first meeting, and this time around should find ways to get the ball into the endzone more frequently. I'm not sure who covers in this game, but either way I think we see a decent number of points on the board by each team, pushing this total over by about a touchdown.

For now, that's it. At the moment I don't have any strong reads on the Sunday games. I'll keep looking at the games into tomorrow night, but it's very possible I just keep it to these two plays this week. Good luck this weekend everyone!

 
Thanks, Kroy. I'm on the Indy over as well but am going to remain with the public on AZ today I think. With such a high scoring game likely, I like the AZ ML +230 play more than the +7. Good luck to everyone today.

Another note- saw a Meachem -15.5 yds vs Doucet prop on bodog today. If Boldin plays, Doucet should barely see the field.

 
3 hour lunch said:
Thanks, Kroy. I'm on the Indy over as well but am going to remain with the public on AZ today I think. With such a high scoring game likely, I like the AZ ML +230 play more than the +7. Good luck to everyone today.

Another note- saw a Meachem -15.5 yds vs Doucet prop on bodog today. If Boldin plays, Doucet should barely see the field.
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That's an "if" not worth gambling on.
 
1-1 to start the weekend, I'm not happy with how I've been picking lately. I've been solid all year ATS, but my last 8 totals plays are just 2-6, that's really dragging me down. I'm going to have to be sure I REALLY like a total from now on before releasing it. Anyways for tomorrow, I thought a bit about this one, but after some deliberation I've decided it's a solid play:

* Cowboys +2.5

Dallas has been a very underrated team all season, as they're one of just two teams to be top 8 in both yards/pass attempt and yards/rush attempt (Saints are the other team). On offense, I like how their pass offense matches up with the Vikings' passing defense. Although the Vikings have had a solid pass rush so far this year, they still find themselves ranked 19th in yards per pass attempt allowed. Not only that, but the defense has played the easiest passing schedule in the NFL, which speaks volumes given the fact that they're still a below average unit against the pass. Facing the run, it is no secret that Dallas has one of the most explosive rushing attacks in the NFL. Although the Minnesota defense could do a decent job of limiting the damage Dallas does on the ground, the Cowboys should be able to muster enough offense on the ground to keep Minnesota honest and from focusing in on their issues in the secondary.

On defense, the Cowboys have shown quite a bit lately as they've shut down top notch units such as the Eagles and Saints. Minnesota has lost their identity as a running team as Peterson has struggled since early in the season, and the Vikings find themselves ranked 23rd in yards/rush attempt. Dallas has the 8th best rushing defense in the NFL, and should be able to keep AP and Taylor bottled up for most of the game. If Minnesota is to win this game, they'll have to do it through the air. Favre and the Vikings enter the game 9th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt. This is not as spectacular as it appears however, as the Vikings have played the 9th easiest passing schedule in the NFL. The Dallas front 4 has been getting tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and we all know that Favre is a quarterback who can be pressured into mistakes. Having played the 7th toughest schedule against the pass in the NFL, Dallas is still an above average passing defense, and generates the 7th most sacks per game in the NFL. I expect them to have Favre frequently under pressure, and for some turnovers to put Dallas in command in this one. These are two teams headed in opposite directions, and when all is said and done we should see Dallas coming away with an outright win.

 
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