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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Wellllll he is going to be out a few weeks, my RB corps is pretty strong and deep and I cleared a roster spot here (in FFPC). I also picked up Z Evans tonight so feels like I got paid a 3rd to improve my current situation. If K Williams comes back later that's fine but in the meantime I turned someone that was a waiver pickup originally and who is currently pretty injured into a 3rd round rookie pick in TriFlex. If Kyren Williams comes back in like 6 weeks and starts winning leagues for people I'll probably still feel good about it.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Dynasty ppr
Edit: start 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 2flex
My: D Swift Phil rb
For
His: C Watson GB wr
I don't know how, dude has Montgomery, just got Taylor back, has Achane on ir, then made a move to add Pollard. His wrs are great (Hill Allen Collins) but now he has no depth at all. Why not just start Watson in his flex?
Edit: start 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 2flex
My: D Swift Phil rb
For
His: C Watson GB wr
I don't know how, dude has Montgomery, just got Taylor back, has Achane on ir, then made a move to add Pollard. His wrs are great (Hill Allen Collins) but now he has no depth at all. Why not just start Watson in his flex?
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Boone22
Footballguy
I’m not a fan of this trade for you. Did you shop him around? I would jump at the chance to pay a 3rd in my league. I believe you could have gotten at least a 2nd from someone but then every league is different in terms of possible trade partners.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
14 Team - No PPR
Mac Jones
for
Late 2024 2nd Round Pick
Owner getting Mac Jones is 5-1 and has Stroud on a bye and Garoppolo hurt so had to do something to have a "starting" qb for the week. He also is holding Zappe.
Mac Jones
for
Late 2024 2nd Round Pick
Owner getting Mac Jones is 5-1 and has Stroud on a bye and Garoppolo hurt so had to do something to have a "starting" qb for the week. He also is holding Zappe.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Lopsided which way? I would much rather have Laporta and a 1st if I'm rebuilding.
I would say that’s quite the overpay for Henry.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
haha ok I'm surprised that I got a couple negative comments on this one. Honestly dude is in a cast and a scooter. Yes I shopped him around. I posted a message saying a 3rd would buy him. Nobody is paying a 2nd and my roster spot I cleared is worth more than either the player or the 3rd.
Boone22
Footballguy
this is a dynasty league, So his short term (hopefully) injury shouldn’t weigh too much on his price. And before the injury he was the #4 ranked RB in my league in terms of points scored this year. Maybe your scoring is different and I know roster spots are valuable in FFPC but I can’t comment on that as I don’t play in any of those league.
Posting he can be had for a 3rd round pick isn’t really shopping him. It’s telling people his price. I can almost guarantee that if you just posted that you were looking to move him you would have had an offer of more than a 3rd.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
No, nobody is paying a 2nd for this guy. He only had short term value in the first place.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I know he was scoring a lot before he got injured. That's how I was able to get so much. A 3rd is nothing to sneeze at. I'll buy anybody a 6 pack that can get a 2nd for him in FFPC. I've been doing this a long time and write articles about roster space in FFPC. It's a gigantic factor not just a slightly significant one. In another league I'm going to take a 0 at DEF because I'd rather keep the Dallas unit (they're on bye) than to drop a high caliber position player. I do consider it shopping a player to post a message like that because it is creating a market which is what was needed. I'm not going to cold call 11 other owners for one player on one roster to try and get a deal that all my experience says isn't going to happen.
You say you don't play FFPC and can't comment on the roster spot value, well ok cool, but I'm telling you that spot is worth more than either him or the 3rd. I misspoke earlier when I said I picked up Z Evans in his stead, it was actually Baker Mayfield who I need to stream this week at my SuperFlex spot since I lost Fields. So this trade also made it possible for me to (presumably) put up a solid score in my SF spot instead of a 5th/6th WR or 5th RB. Plus who knows how long Fields is out. I would have had to drop a high caliber position player to make room for Baker (or not put in any claim at all). Kyren might have been that player but I got a 3rd instead.
As for longer term dynasty value beyond the short, K Williams is a JAG who might not come back healthy at any point this year (or thereafter). On this roster I have Barkley, Walker, White, Ford, Charbs, Ibanikanda and J McLaughlin. In FFPC TriFlex you really can't carry more than 5 RBs and I have 7 after moving Kyren.
Anyway it's all good if you disagree but right now I'm looking at putting Gave Davis, J McLoughlin or E Moore in my SuperFlex spot if not a QB. Normally I don't mind so much in putting a non-QB in my SF spot but I don't like those 3 names this week at all. I was only able to have the option to put Baker in there because of this trade. And I get what looks like an early 3rd in a format where QBs are at a premium, the cutdown to 16 (including K and D) in late March forces the FA/rookie pool to be super deep, and I'd put it at 50/50 at best whether K Williams plays meaningful snaps again this year.
Weebs210
Footballguy
Lopsided as you could have gotten Henry for either of those, combining them is just beyond dumb for a 30 year old RB
barackdhouse
Footballguy
20 players in season for FFPC TriFlex:
3 QB
6 RB
8 WR
3 TE
It's thin AF. Most people would prefer a 4th QB. You can start up to 6 WRs in this format so they are actually quite a bit more valued than in other FFPC formats, which is saying something. It makes it easier (on paper) to roll with 4 or 5 elite RBs. Only 3 TEs is also very problematic. If you have a very strong roster it is actually remarkably difficult to manage inseason with any kind of flexibility.
3 QB
6 RB
8 WR
3 TE
It's thin AF. Most people would prefer a 4th QB. You can start up to 6 WRs in this format so they are actually quite a bit more valued than in other FFPC formats, which is saying something. It makes it easier (on paper) to roll with 4 or 5 elite RBs. Only 3 TEs is also very problematic. If you have a very strong roster it is actually remarkably difficult to manage inseason with any kind of flexibility.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Agree. As a Henry owner, would happily take either of them.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Alright, I made a big one. I’m 5-1, despite playing without Rodgers and Chubb all year (I’ve been starting Baker Mayfield at QB). Gave up a lot, but feel like I received 4 players who should slot right into my lineup (Josh Allen, Kupp, Pacheco, and Q.Williams). Not sure how much of a career Rodgers or Chubb will have left. Johnston looking like will take some time to develop, but may as well strike now.
Give:
Get:
Give:
- Rodgers, Aaron NYJ QB
- Chubb, Nick CLE RB
- Johnston, Quentin LAC WR
- Rice, Rashee KCC WR
- Year 2024 Round 1 Draft Pick
- Year 2024 Round 4 Draft Pick
- Year 2024 Round 6 Draft Pick
Get:
- Allen, Josh BUF QB
- Pacheco, Isiah KCC RB
- Kupp, Cooper LAR WR
- Gardeck, Dennis ARI DE
- Williams, Quincy NYJ LB
- Jacobs, Jerry DET CB
EthnicFury
Footballguy
I don’t play idp but as a contender I’d happily give that for Allen/kupp/pacheco
wgoldsph
Footballguy
You absolutely robbed him.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I would think K Willams is worth more than a 3rd round pick and yes, a 3rd is something to sneeze at.
Keith R
The Don
I got the Godfather offer from a QB-needy team for Justin Herbert today and did not refuse it. I'm 4-2 in this league, which is good enough to be in a 6-way tie for 1st place. TE premium PPR.
Gave
Justin Herbert
Got
Matthew Stafford
Gus Edwards
2024 1st
2 2024 2nds
My QB core now consists of Josh Allen, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, with Stetson Bennett on IR.
Gave
Justin Herbert
Got
Matthew Stafford
Gus Edwards
2024 1st
2 2024 2nds
My QB core now consists of Josh Allen, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, with Stetson Bennett on IR.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
When someone moves him for a 2nd, wake me up. My historic hit rate on FFPC 3rd rounders is 47% at 22/47 picks going back to 2016. But to each their own. Some people don't like draft picks.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
I’d probably balk at paying a 2nd for him but would jump at paying a 3rd. Which puts him in the “I bet you could easily move him and a 3 for a 2 if you got creative about it” ballpark
You’re free to be confident in your drafting and prefer the 3rd in a vacuum but I agree with the folks saying you probably left money on the table
barackdhouse
Footballguy
what kind of money? marginal at best. not the kind of thing to prevent a deal from getting done on waiver day. oh well he's clogging their roster now not mine.
Nobody paying a 2nd for him is just not true
I offered a 2nd in FFPC and was quickly denied.
I don’t use the term “roster clogger” to describe an injured player averaging 18.5 through 6 weeks. I call him an injured stud that I simply wait out for 2-4 weeks. That roster clogger term is used to describe an entirely different set of players in my opinion.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Now I do believe a 3rd was OK when Akers was still on the roster.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Interesting. What are your hit rates for other rounds? My perception of 3rd rounders is that they are not a lot more than dart throws, but looking back, I've got some pretty strong hits in the 3rd as well. Might be time to re-evaluate my thoughts on 3rds...
ALso, define your success rate, please!
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I think defining “hit rate” is pretty important piece of context that is missing.Interesting. What are your hit rates for other rounds? My perception of 3rd rounders is that they are not a lot more than dart throws, but looking back, I've got some pretty strong hits in the 3rd as well. Might be time to re-evaluate my thoughts on 3rds...
ALso, define your success rate, please!
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Was your offer in FFPC?
Dude that I traded him too just offered him back to me today. Wanted Jaleel McLoughlin and Jerome Ford. Dude doesn't have a starting RB this week.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
You're not wrong about that but I've written at it at great length and don't want to go too deep down this rabbit hole right now. The simplest explanation is that they need to become fantasy relevant at some point. My articles on this are behind a paywall but if you want it's here.I think defining “hit rate” is pretty important piece of context that is missing.Interesting. What are your hit rates for other rounds? My perception of 3rd rounders is that they are not a lot more than dart throws, but looking back, I've got some pretty strong hits in the 3rd as well. Might be time to re-evaluate my thoughts on 3rds...
ALso, define your success rate, please!
My 2nd round rate is very similar, at 46%, 1st round at 72%.
4th round interestingly is at 68%, and 5th thru 7th is 21%
Those are significantly higher numbers than a dart throw. And if you take several of them each year....
My list of players that I have drafted in the 3rd round or later is impressive and every year I continue to be shocked at just how little folks value 3rd rounders.
Important caveat is that this isn't meant to be considered scientific or completely perfect in terms of methodology, it is simply a roadmap for me to track my results over time in a way that shows large trends. The mistake is to dive in too granularly and assume these numbers mean more than they do. For example, if I draft George Kittle in the 4th round of rookie drafts in 7 different leagues, I'm calling that 7 hits, not 1. Similarly, if I draft 10 shares of Terrace Marshall around the 1/2 turn, that's 10 misses not 1.
****, anyway.
I feel like the biggest disconnect here is that some folks think this guy is coming back to his pre injury self in just a couple weeks. I highly highly doubt that. My trade partner seems to have learned this after the fact. And for that reason yes I guess I could have gotten a 2nd. I felt like a 3rd was fleecing enough honestly.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I posted a response to this above, but I would make an educated guess that everybody on this forum has a dramatically better success rate on their 3rd rounders and later than they realize right now. I think everyone should go back and reevaluate.Interesting. What are your hit rates for other rounds? My perception of 3rd rounders is that they are not a lot more than dart throws, but looking back, I've got some pretty strong hits in the 3rd as well. Might be time to re-evaluate my thoughts on 3rds...
ALso, define your success rate, please!
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Dude offered him back to me today (along with Henry Hunter) for Jaleel McLoughlin and Jerome Ford. He doesn't have a RB this week and this 3rd is looking earlier every minute.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
He wasn't a roster clogger before the injury. I believe he is now. And 2-4 weeks isn't happening, but I'll buy you that six pack for offering a 2nd and getting turned down. The other guy probably needs it though. I don't know how you turn down a 2nd for this guy. Kudos on getting Mostert though.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
success rate is an interesting concept worth exploring more deeply on draft assets generally. For your metrics do they have to become fantasy relevant at some point *on your team* or just generally? Feels like an important distinction with the roster crunch you described and with late round picks in general.I posted a response to this above, but I would make an educated guess that everybody on this forum has a dramatically better success rate on their 3rd rounders and later than they realize right now. I think everyone should go back and reevaluate.Interesting. What are your hit rates for other rounds? My perception of 3rd rounders is that they are not a lot more than dart throws, but looking back, I've got some pretty strong hits in the 3rd as well. Might be time to re-evaluate my thoughts on 3rds...
ALso, define your success rate, please!
I’d guess my hit rate for 3rd rounders is indeed higher than what I assume to be the value of a pick by looking at who all got taken in the average third round, but that is largely because I typically use my later picks to upgrade in season and only trade back in if there’s a guy I have a definitive thesis on
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
I would take that in a heart beat. Opens a spot for two actual roster cloggers.
Tonycarpenter
Footballguy
InDitka... I often trade for 3rd rounders for a player picked up off F/A just to cash out... In my 10 league there always seems to be value that drops. Some of the owners are solid, informed. Some are not. I typically have 3x 3rds to work with. My goal is to trade up in the future... or retain roster space. Trading Michael Carter for 2 x 3rds. at end of 2020 freed up space. When I had 3x 1st and 3 x 2nd picks. The owner is a Jet's fan and it made sense.Interesting. What are your hit rates for other rounds? My perception of 3rd rounders is that they are not a lot more than dart throws, but looking back, I've got some pretty strong hits in the 3rd as well. Might be time to re-evaluate my thoughts on 3rds...
ALso, define your success rate, please!
Players Taken in 3rd Rounds or later in my league since 2019 draft: (2018 was year 1 we all autodrafted)
2019: 3.01 Irv Smith, 3.02 NFant. 3.03 AJBrown (later dropped and i grabbed =) ) Deebo Samuel, Drew Lock, Mile Sanders, Mecole Hardman, Darwin Thompson, Someone Passed, a DEF, Kicker.
2020. Pittman Jr, DMims, Duvernay, Defense, Pass, Tee Higgins, Boston Scott, Laviska JHurts at 3.10. JLove 4.01, Gibson 4.06, CLaypool 5.01 ,
2021: Chubba 3.01, BScott, ADalton, Freiermuth, Gainwell, Eli Moore Bateman, WAS Def, TMarshall, AmonRa StBrown,
2022: In Order Ahooper, Zay Jones, Skyy Moore, Cwatson, ZamWhite, Nico Collin, Dhilliard, Tonyan, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, RD 4 IDP, Pass, Rachaad White, ISpiller, Allegeir, Doubs, Malik Willis, JTolbert, Jelanie Woods, Rams DEF
2023: in Order: Trey McBride, Darnell Washington, Schoonmaker, Rashee Rice, JReed, Mingo, ILikely, MMims, WLevis, SBennett, 4th rd: JDOwns, RayRaymcld, TankBigs, JFord, Roschon Johnson, IDP, IDP< cedric Tillman, Zach Evans, DeVaughn, OdBJr, Kicker, HHooker. Puka, TDell, Jaleel etc were all on waivers.
"Success Ratio" It's nice when you don't pay a lot of player that does really well. BUT Looking at the last 5 drafts or so... there were plenty of hits and misses in all rounds by many teams. 2021 aw Lawrence #1, Najee #2, ZWilson #3, JFields, #4, TLance #5, JChase #6, Mac Jones #7, KPitts, #8, JWaddle #9, Trey Sermon #10. Then Round 2. DevSmith 2.01, Javonte Williams, 2.02 Rondale Moore 3.03, Etiene, DHenderson, Rhomandre, IDP? , Irv Smith, Michael Carter K Toney...
My picks were: Waddle, Sermon, Devonta Smith Rondale Moore ..... I traded some players Including DSmith, For TLance. I believe I gave ZEKE. That trade didn't work out for me but it was worth a shot. I also own AJBRown and Goedert. I didn't want both a 3rd rec option in 1 offense. SUCCESS is enjoying the wins when they happen and living wth the losses but putting myself in a position to HAVE OPTIONs... I would say... YES it's dart throw but in my league. I probably throw darts a little better than some of the others.
Ranking These Players
QBs: Jalen Hurts: J Love ADalton, Malik W. W Levis, HHooker, Bennett, DLock
WR: AmonRa St Brown, AJBrown, Tee Higgins Pittmanjr, Puka NaCua, CWatson,Nico Collin, Deebo Samuel, Jahan Dotson, Eli Moore, Tank Dell, Marvin Mims, JamWilliams R Doubs, JaydReed, Rashod Bateman, Rashee Rice , Skyy Moore, JMingo, ZJones, KToney, CTillman,
RB: Etienne, Javonte Williams, Rachaad White, Miles Sanders, Tank Bigsby, AGibson, TAllgier, JFord, Chuba, ZEvans, Zwhite, (are all ranked above Clyde EH #2 pick in my league in 2020).
TE: Freiermuth, McBride, with some deeper picks and FA available that are all worthy.
I think any time you can draft a player that is more successful that a player drafted ahead of them. And Stays there... A Dynasty owner has not drafted well because he drafts based on need..Therefore ending up with Zach Wilson Clyde Edwards Hillaire, ....Acquire Value...but also cash-in on value. This team can't roster all of those WRs... It's a little lite on RB. But even with just 3rd rounders and guessing right you could do pretty well. You're likely shut out of some elite prospects or lower odds at elites
barackdhouse
Footballguy
yeah well they're probably next on my 'cash out while I can' list. Ford is a weekly starter right now, though. And I have no idea if Chubb will ever be himself again. I don't know that a solid 2nd would get Ford from me, but probably. My price is more like a 1st though and yes I know that probably isn't happening either. Right now I'm staying competitive and flexible, which is more important than anything else here. This week I have Ford as my second non-QB FLex starter in my lineup (possibly a bigger indictment of my WR corps than anything else but we start 3 WR in TriFlex). He is hardly a clogger. He is my RB4. I'd rather have Kyren getting 18 PG but that ship sailed.
I don't disagree McLoughlin may be a clogger. Anyway I appreciate the feedback.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah well that's just it. It's all murky. The first year I ran this article I talked about how back a few years ago I used a late 2nd rookie pick OTC to take Marshawn Lynch, who had been dropped into the FA pool somehow (because of the crunch to 16 at end of March). Well, truth was he ended up being washed and you'd strictly speaking have to call that pick a miss. BUT!! Before that season began I turned him into a future 1st and 2nd (and some throw in that was also interesting but I forget off top of my head). The 1st ended up becoming Metcalf. So in the end I profited off of it all, but for consistency sake I try to think of those weird ones (like that) as miss.success rate is an interesting concept worth exploring more deeply on draft assets generally. For your metrics do they have to become fantasy relevant at some point *on your team* or just generally? Feels like an important distinction with the roster crunch you described and with late round picks in general.I posted a response to this above, but I would make an educated guess that everybody on this forum has a dramatically better success rate on their 3rd rounders and later than they realize right now. I think everyone should go back and reevaluate.Interesting. What are your hit rates for other rounds? My perception of 3rd rounders is that they are not a lot more than dart throws, but looking back, I've got some pretty strong hits in the 3rd as well. Might be time to re-evaluate my thoughts on 3rds...
ALso, define your success rate, please!
I’d guess my hit rate for 3rd rounders is indeed higher than what I assume to be the value of a pick by looking at who all got taken in the average third round, but that is largely because I typically use my later picks to upgrade in season and only trade back in if there’s a guy I have a definitive thesis on
Similarly, I took N'Keal Harry at maybe 1.05 once, and later in the same draft traded him to go back to 1.09 OTC for AJ Brown and 2.02 (where I took Singletary who I would argue paid off the value as a hit as well, though it's marginal - he had his relevancy though). And if a player maintains a tradable value (murky again), then they are relevant as a hit. But anyway that one was a grandslam to move Harry for AJBrown and Singletary, but the 1.05 pick was an absolute miss. So I try to be fair and consistent about all of that.
One reason I probably do so well in the 3rd/4th rounds is because I am 100% a go-get-you-guy drafter. And I will trade like 3.03, 3.06 and a future 3rd to move up to like 2.09 (and like 4.10 or future 4th whatever) to get my guy. I think there are just tons of drafters that "let value fall to them." That's not me.
Tonycarpenter
Footballguy
Trading 3x 3rds for 2.09... do you ever just say. Draft So & So and I'll give you ___? Hey Joey Football with the 2.08 pick. Draft Puka Nucua and I'll give you this pick and that pick etc in exchange. It's like moving up to get a buy but sign/trade.Yeah well that's just it. It's all murky. The first year I ran this article I talked about how back a few years ago I used a late 2nd rookie pick OTC to take Marshawn Lynch, who had been dropped into the FA pool somehow (because of the crunch to 16 at end of March). Well, truth was he ended up being washed and you'd strictly speaking have to call that pick a miss. BUT!! Before that season began I turned him into a future 1st and 2nd (and some throw in that was also interesting but I forget off top of my head). The 1st ended up becoming Metcalf. So in the end I profited off of it all, but for consistency sake I try to think of those weird ones (like that) as miss.success rate is an interesting concept worth exploring more deeply on draft assets generally. For your metrics do they have to become fantasy relevant at some point *on your team* or just generally? Feels like an important distinction with the roster crunch you described and with late round picks in general.I posted a response to this above, but I would make an educated guess that everybody on this forum has a dramatically better success rate on their 3rd rounders and later than they realize right now. I think everyone should go back and reevaluate.Interesting. What are your hit rates for other rounds? My perception of 3rd rounders is that they are not a lot more than dart throws, but looking back, I've got some pretty strong hits in the 3rd as well. Might be time to re-evaluate my thoughts on 3rds...
ALso, define your success rate, please!
I’d guess my hit rate for 3rd rounders is indeed higher than what I assume to be the value of a pick by looking at who all got taken in the average third round, but that is largely because I typically use my later picks to upgrade in season and only trade back in if there’s a guy I have a definitive thesis on
Similarly, I took N'Keal Harry at maybe 1.05 once, and later in the same draft traded him to go back to 1.09 OTC for AJ Brown and 2.02 (where I took Singletary who I would argue paid off the value as a hit as well, though it's marginal - he had his relevancy though). And if a player maintains a tradable value (murky again), then they are relevant as a hit. But anyway that one was a grandslam to move Harry for AJBrown and Singletary, but the 1.05 pick was an absolute miss. So I try to be fair and consistent about all of that.
One reason I probably do so well in the 3rd/4th rounds is because I am 100% a go-get-you-guy drafter. And I will trade like 3.03, 3.06 and a future 3rd to move up to like 2.09 (and like 4.10 or future 4th whatever) to get my guy. I think there are just tons of drafters that "let value fall to them." That's not me.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
That was just an example but no I've never done that. Usually if you tell someone who you want then you're giving them leverage. I prefer to just make the offer, maybe something like "there is a guy I like here" but I feel like telling them the name you're interested in is ensuring a higher price for yourself. And it sometimes brings clarity to the other person in the sense that maybe they have another pick coming up and think player X can fall that far. But they are definitely not going to fall that far if I come in and trade up for him. No I don't like giving potential trade partner the name of the player I want to move up to pick.Trading 3x 3rds for 2.09... do you ever just say. Draft So & So and I'll give you ___? Hey Joey Football with the 2.08 pick. Draft Puka Nucua and I'll give you this pick and that pick etc in exchange. It's like moving up to get a buy but sign/trade.Yeah well that's just it. It's all murky. The first year I ran this article I talked about how back a few years ago I used a late 2nd rookie pick OTC to take Marshawn Lynch, who had been dropped into the FA pool somehow (because of the crunch to 16 at end of March). Well, truth was he ended up being washed and you'd strictly speaking have to call that pick a miss. BUT!! Before that season began I turned him into a future 1st and 2nd (and some throw in that was also interesting but I forget off top of my head). The 1st ended up becoming Metcalf. So in the end I profited off of it all, but for consistency sake I try to think of those weird ones (like that) as miss.success rate is an interesting concept worth exploring more deeply on draft assets generally. For your metrics do they have to become fantasy relevant at some point *on your team* or just generally? Feels like an important distinction with the roster crunch you described and with late round picks in general.I posted a response to this above, but I would make an educated guess that everybody on this forum has a dramatically better success rate on their 3rd rounders and later than they realize right now. I think everyone should go back and reevaluate.Interesting. What are your hit rates for other rounds? My perception of 3rd rounders is that they are not a lot more than dart throws, but looking back, I've got some pretty strong hits in the 3rd as well. Might be time to re-evaluate my thoughts on 3rds...
ALso, define your success rate, please!
I’d guess my hit rate for 3rd rounders is indeed higher than what I assume to be the value of a pick by looking at who all got taken in the average third round, but that is largely because I typically use my later picks to upgrade in season and only trade back in if there’s a guy I have a definitive thesis on
Similarly, I took N'Keal Harry at maybe 1.05 once, and later in the same draft traded him to go back to 1.09 OTC for AJ Brown and 2.02 (where I took Singletary who I would argue paid off the value as a hit as well, though it's marginal - he had his relevancy though). And if a player maintains a tradable value (murky again), then they are relevant as a hit. But anyway that one was a grandslam to move Harry for AJBrown and Singletary, but the 1.05 pick was an absolute miss. So I try to be fair and consistent about all of that.
One reason I probably do so well in the 3rd/4th rounds is because I am 100% a go-get-you-guy drafter. And I will trade like 3.03, 3.06 and a future 3rd to move up to like 2.09 (and like 4.10 or future 4th whatever) to get my guy. I think there are just tons of drafters that "let value fall to them." That's not me.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I agree. I've recently turned down much much better.
dschuler
Footballguy
IDK, very good possibility this is his last relevant year. If you are out of it you need to acquire value. I don’t think many people would give a first for him.
