leftcoastguy7
Footballguy
If someone gets Covid, has very few and very mild symptoms, tests negative a week later...
they are not going to get Long Covid symptoms. Correct?
they are not going to get Long Covid symptoms. Correct?
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
We just back from 4 nights in Vegas. We are vaxed/boosted x2 and I also got Covid ironically in December when we flew back from Vegas then. I would say less than 20% of people were wearing masks in the airport. We had our masks on while on the plane because on both flights it felt like we were in a whooping cough ward. The strangest thing happened on the flight back though, the flight attendant is doing the pre-flight speech and she says something like mask are not mandatory on this flight and there was kind of this "Yay!!" throughout the cabin. But then she says, "However it is fine if you would like to wear one and we ask everyone on this flight to please respect their decision and be nice." It was just an odd thing to say, I thought.
Doug B
Footballguy
No guarantees, but that person should be OK. Kind of depends on what you're thinking of when you say "Long COVID symptoms".
Scoresman
Footballguy
Full recovery, yes. This was about 15 years ago now. No other lingering effects except blood thinners for life and all that comes with that.
Scoresman
Footballguy
There are idiots out there who confront people for wearing masks. I've been yelled at a few times myself with "Ya know, you don't have to wear that anymore!"
AAABatteries
Footballguy
What is the consensus on boosters for young adults/teenagers?
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
In terms of the current medical consensus, I'll defer to the Smart Guys in this thread.
In terms of sharing my experience, we got our 12 year old boosted in June because his summer camp required it. The 7 y.o. hasn't had it yet (although he's the only one in the family who's actually had Covid). We may do it before he starts school next month.
The key point to remember is that it's a low-stakes decision. There is very little risk no matter what you decide.
There are also idiots out there still wearing masks by themselves in their car or while walking outside by themselves.
I have heard blood clots are a side effect of the vaccinations.Some of you may remember that last month I posted in here about spending a week in the hospital with a pulmonary embolism, and how it's a mystery where my clots came from since I have none of the obvious risk factors (smoking, sedentary lifestyle, recent long-haul flight). Well, we still don't know, but there's an interesting difference of opinion among my various doctors. My pulmonologist thinks he's found a genetic cause based on a couple of my test results (for the medical nerds out there, MTHFR and homocysteine). Meanwhile, a family friend who's been advising us and is a very well-respected doctor in the area thinks it's due to an undiagnosed Covid infection. I did test negative on a Covid nucleocapsid test recently, which would seem to indicate I have never had it, but this doctor thinks that was a false negative.
Earlier today I met with my hematologist. She's younger and not as experienced as the other two doctors, but this is obviously her area of expertise. She doesn't buy the genetic explanation, and while she's not as definitive as our family friend about the Covid explanation, she did mention that, for whatever reason, over the last couple years she's been seeing a lot more unexplained blood clots. (She did say that it could just as easily be an indirect cause, such as more people living sedentary lifestyles during the pandemic).
This is a mostly academic debate, since whatever the cause ends up being, it is unlikely to change my course of treatment (blood thinners). But it makes me wonder how many more of these unexplained mysteries that may or may not be connected to Covid are out there.
Oh, and in case anyone's wondering, I'm fully recovered from the embolism and shouldn't face any long-term health risks as a result of it
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I actually asked about that. When something mysterious happens to your body, you don't want to leave any stone unturned. But the clots were only seen in J&J vaccines, not Pfizer, and in any event the last shot I received prior to my PE was my booster in October 2021. There is no way clots would suddenly emerge eight months after the fact.
In fairness, a doctor saying "gotta be covid" when you have never been diagnosed with it is also unlikely.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
That thought has occurred to me, and I don't really know if I buy his theory. But I will say that this guy is extremely well respected in Florida and beyond -- particularly as a diagnostician -- and has treated a large number of Covid patients in the past two years, so I don't think he's talking out of his butt with this.
I think the larger lesson is that often with these kinds of edge cases, the goal is less to pinpoint the exact cause as to rule out as many alternate explanations as possible. But it still often comes down to a somewhat subjective opinion as to which unlikely outcome is least unlikely.
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Insoxicated
I'd say it's less likely but still a possibility. I know folks who had mild cases and are still dealing with brain fog and other long term symptoms.
Doug B
Footballguy
These aren't really comparable, though. "Minding one's business" versus "Being all up in someone else's business".
There actually are good reasons, even now, to sometimes wear an N95 alone in a car (e.g. borrowing/renting a car, having to drive while positive and someone else will drive the car later, and more).
No doubt that wearing a mask outside by yourself is generally pointless, but still ... not hurting anyone
It's never, ever correct to confront someone for wearing a mask -- you just don't know what someone is dealing with at home. Or their personal situation.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
The doctor ordered me a script for Paxlovid in case I thought I needed it, and I decided to go ahead with it. It may have been psychosomatic but I felt my breathing wasn't as easy as it had been earlier (though it has felt better in the last hour or so). Plus I've got risk factors such as being over 50, obesity and (controlled) hypertension. Just took my first batch of pills.
Runkle
Footballguy
The best retort to those morons I've heard so far is: "Thanks! (removes mask) I just got diagnosed with COVID yesterday and it's been a pain having to wear this mask to protect other people (cough directly onto the idiot), it's great being around others who don't mind if I take this off! (sneezes in their eyes)"
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Clearly that was because the most recent page contained irrefutable proof that Covid has been a complete hoax from the beginning ...
Doug B
Footballguy
I didn't get to post the COVID numbers report last Thursday. I'll cobble something together this week.
I can say that the vaunted "rise in COVID cases!" -- preliminarily -- appears to have topped off at a 7-day average of ~132,000/day and furthermore appears to be in a holding pattern (as opposed to continuously rising). Hopefully a drop is in the offing.
Also: sometime over the past week, Johns Hopkins got their national COVID hospitalizations page fixed. This past week ending August 7th, for the first time since mid-April: the number of both COVID inpatients and COVID ICU admissions dropped week-over-week. Not a ton, but something positive all the same.
COVID deaths figures need improvement, needless to say, though they've quit rising also and have settled in lately at around the low 400s/day (7-day average).
I can say that the vaunted "rise in COVID cases!" -- preliminarily -- appears to have topped off at a 7-day average of ~132,000/day and furthermore appears to be in a holding pattern (as opposed to continuously rising). Hopefully a drop is in the offing.
Also: sometime over the past week, Johns Hopkins got their national COVID hospitalizations page fixed. This past week ending August 7th, for the first time since mid-April: the number of both COVID inpatients and COVID ICU admissions dropped week-over-week. Not a ton, but something positive all the same.
COVID deaths figures need improvement, needless to say, though they've quit rising also and have settled in lately at around the low 400s/day (7-day average).
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I tested negative today, 10 days after testing positive, and have no symptoms other than the normal level of congestion that I always have.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Whatever happened to BA 2.75 or whatever it was called? Heard it did make it over here a number of weeks ago. Is it simply not able to compete with BA4 or 5?
Also, went to a fairly crowded outdoor event weekend before last. All but one of our 5 friends who also went got COVID. Wife and I were masked, never got it. There was maybe 1% mask usage at the entire event.
Also, went to a fairly crowded outdoor event weekend before last. All but one of our 5 friends who also went got COVID. Wife and I were masked, never got it. There was maybe 1% mask usage at the entire event.
If the event was outdoors then I would be surprised to see anyone wearing a mask.
Doug B
Footballguy
I think you got it with the bolded. The U.S., collectively, has a lot of seroprevalence built up against Omicron strains in general, and branches of the older lineages just aren't going to be able to make much headway as they might in other parts of the world.
Scoresman
Footballguy
It wasn't surprising to see low mask usage, but there was no breeze at all and people were very close together. The newer variants can absolutely spread in that environment. I think people are using outdated information regarding outdoor spread. Omicron is not OG COVID. In that sort of environment, my wife and I continue to mask up since she is high risk.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
I still don’t get why we can’t get a booster now, and then get the omicron version in December/January. That way we have added protection as school starts and then another layer around the time of last year’s big wave.
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dnurk
Footballguy
Small sample size but I personally know over a dozen people who received a 4th shot (2nd booster) within the past 45 days and all of them ended up testing positive for Covid in the past month. This is central Indiana . I personally think the OG shot formula does not do much to keep you from getting the current strain. Possible it does still provide some protection vs severe outcomes and hospitalization but I question that too given how mild the symptoms are for most people.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
How sick have they been? It seems to me that people getting this strain have been much sicker than those who got covid in the spring. I am not sure whether that’s because ba5 is worse or because immunity has waned more. The people I know all had 3 shots.
dnurk
Footballguy
Most have been quite mild with cold like symptoms for about 6 days and then fully recovered by 10 days. Two of them (my parents) are in their late 70s and had more significant issues but did not require hospitalization. They both took monoclonal treatments and are getting back to normal.
culdeus
Footballguy
So my kids went to sleep away camp. About 220 kids and another 80 or so staff at different times. Someone came in with Covid (probably lied about test) and ultimately 33 of the 220 got it, they isolated for 5 days and when tested negative were let back into the camp. This is anecdotal but would suggest that for schools that the contagion of this variant isn't 100% as has been let on. The severity was nothing more than a cold for about 3 days, the only lingering symptom was singing voices were compromised for a little bit.
Seeing 0% mask use, and 0% ****s given anywhere here. If this was super contagious it would have overrun this area.
Not super convinced getting the 4th shot will have any impact at all, unless there is some impact on whatever the next variant is.
Seeing 0% mask use, and 0% ****s given anywhere here. If this was super contagious it would have overrun this area.
Not super convinced getting the 4th shot will have any impact at all, unless there is some impact on whatever the next variant is.
Doug B
Footballguy
There is A LOT of seroprevalence out there, too. BA.5 might reliably cause symptomatic infections in a immunologically naïve population, but that's not the U.S. right now.
This is becoming the default COVID case for dang near everyone under 70 -- even people with comorbidities (except severe immunocompromise). 2020's "just a flu" will eventually be 2023-24's "just a cold".
I guess it might not be time to go totally cavalier about COVID, but that time is fast approaching.
Scoresman
Footballguy
You can. Just go to the pharmacy and lie through your teeth about being eligible. It's what I did and I have zero regrets.
Sleestak
Footballguy
I got my 2nd booster 44 days ago. Still a virgin.
Doug B
Footballguy
(NOTE: Recent figures in the Worldometers graphs get big adjustments as much as two weeks after they first drop. Accordingly, I've waited ten days to let the last-week Monday (August 1st) numbers settle in. They will rise some more by next week's update, but it should only be by a relatively small amount.)
...
Updating numbers to see where things have been standing recently from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States:
CASES ON THU 08/11/2022
Thu 01/13/2022 - 825,929 <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Tue 02/01/2022 - 425,029
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,616
Mon 02/28/2022 - 62,205
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,900
Sat 04/02/2022 - 27,635 <--2022 LOW
Mon 04/18/2022 - 40,890
Mon 05/02/2022 - 61,070
Mon 05/09/2022 - 81,590
Mon 05/16/2022 - 100,359
Mon 05/23/2022 - 110,982
Mon 05/30/2022 - 110,500
Mon 06/06/2022 - 106,958
Mon 06/13/2022 - 107,557
Mon 06/20/2022 - 99,235
Mon 06/27/2022 - 113,317
Mon 07/04/2022 - 115,416
Mon 07/11/2022 - 120,540
Wed 07/13/2022 - 131,055
Thu 07/14/2022 - 132,054
Fri 07/15/2022 - 132,065
Sun 07/17/2022 - 131,837
Mon 07/18/2022 - 132,016
Tue 07/19/2022 - 131,265
Wed 07/20/2022 - 131,963
Thu 07/21/2022 - 132,424 <-- SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Fri 07/22/2022 - 132,308
Mon 07/25/2022 - 131,764
Mon 08/01/2022 - 124,206
Mon 08/08/2022 - 101,034 <--provisional count
DEATHS ON THU 08/11/2022
Sun 01/29/2022 - 2,757 <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Fri 02/18/2022 - 2,196
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,751
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,137
Mon 03/28/2022 - 635
Mon 04/11/2022 - 487
Mon 05/02/2022 - 338
Mon 05/09/2022 - 299
Sat 05/14/2022 - 282 <--2022 LOW
Mon 05/23/2022 - 324
Mon 06/06/2022 - 341
Mon 06/13/2022 - 364
Mon 06/20/2022 - 311
Mon 06/27/2022 - 354
Mon 07/04/2022 - 365
Mon 07/11/2022 - 390
Tue 07/12/2022 - 412
Wed 07/13/2022 - 422
Mon 07/18/2022 - 413
Mon 07/25/2022 - 436 (356 on Thu 07/28/2022)
Mon 08/01/2022 - 427
Wed 08/03/2022 - 451 <--SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Mon 08/08/2022 - 392 <--provisional count
...
CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 825,929 on 1/13/2022, and was provisionally 101,034 on 8/1/2022. The U.S. had been on a steady case-count rise from June 20th, 2022 through late July. Starting the week of July 25, 2022, the 7-day case numbers have slowly started to decline. A 7-day average of around 132,500 has served as sort of a glass ceiling that case counts skirted, but did not manage to break through. The BA.4/BA.5 "surge" is still looking like a low hill and not a spike -- and furthermore it appears we are starting on the downside of that hill.
DEATHS: The 7-day average had dropped for 79 consecutive days from 2,756 on 1/29/2022 to 350 on Tue 4/19/2022. With adjustments, the 8/1/2022 number was 427. The 7-day average deaths on 8/3/2022 is the new spring/summer high, now adjusted to 451. As adjustments come in, it's looking like these numbers will surpass the mid-400s before long. The 7-day average death number really has to get back below 300 and stay there for an extended period, but the path to that status is still not clear at present.
...
For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the initial thrust of vaccinations and before summer 2021's Delta surge.
CASES: 12,197 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021
...
Updating numbers to see where things have been standing recently from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States:
CASES ON THU 08/11/2022
Thu 01/13/2022 - 825,929 <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Tue 02/01/2022 - 425,029
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,616
Mon 02/28/2022 - 62,205
Mon 03/14/2022 - 32,900
Sat 04/02/2022 - 27,635 <--2022 LOW
Mon 04/18/2022 - 40,890
Mon 05/02/2022 - 61,070
Mon 05/09/2022 - 81,590
Mon 05/16/2022 - 100,359
Mon 05/23/2022 - 110,982
Mon 05/30/2022 - 110,500
Mon 06/06/2022 - 106,958
Mon 06/13/2022 - 107,557
Mon 06/20/2022 - 99,235
Mon 06/27/2022 - 113,317
Mon 07/04/2022 - 115,416
Mon 07/11/2022 - 120,540
Wed 07/13/2022 - 131,055
Thu 07/14/2022 - 132,054
Fri 07/15/2022 - 132,065
Sun 07/17/2022 - 131,837
Mon 07/18/2022 - 132,016
Tue 07/19/2022 - 131,265
Wed 07/20/2022 - 131,963
Thu 07/21/2022 - 132,424 <-- SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Fri 07/22/2022 - 132,308
Mon 07/25/2022 - 131,764
Mon 08/01/2022 - 124,206
Mon 08/08/2022 - 101,034 <--provisional count
DEATHS ON THU 08/11/2022
Sun 01/29/2022 - 2,757 <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Fri 02/18/2022 - 2,196
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,751
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,137
Mon 03/28/2022 - 635
Mon 04/11/2022 - 487
Mon 05/02/2022 - 338
Mon 05/09/2022 - 299
Sat 05/14/2022 - 282 <--2022 LOW
Mon 05/23/2022 - 324
Mon 06/06/2022 - 341
Mon 06/13/2022 - 364
Mon 06/20/2022 - 311
Mon 06/27/2022 - 354
Mon 07/04/2022 - 365
Mon 07/11/2022 - 390
Tue 07/12/2022 - 412
Wed 07/13/2022 - 422
Mon 07/18/2022 - 413
Mon 07/25/2022 - 436 (356 on Thu 07/28/2022)
Mon 08/01/2022 - 427
Wed 08/03/2022 - 451 <--SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Mon 08/08/2022 - 392 <--provisional count
...
CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 825,929 on 1/13/2022, and was provisionally 101,034 on 8/1/2022. The U.S. had been on a steady case-count rise from June 20th, 2022 through late July. Starting the week of July 25, 2022, the 7-day case numbers have slowly started to decline. A 7-day average of around 132,500 has served as sort of a glass ceiling that case counts skirted, but did not manage to break through. The BA.4/BA.5 "surge" is still looking like a low hill and not a spike -- and furthermore it appears we are starting on the downside of that hill.
DEATHS: The 7-day average had dropped for 79 consecutive days from 2,756 on 1/29/2022 to 350 on Tue 4/19/2022. With adjustments, the 8/1/2022 number was 427. The 7-day average deaths on 8/3/2022 is the new spring/summer high, now adjusted to 451. As adjustments come in, it's looking like these numbers will surpass the mid-400s before long. The 7-day average death number really has to get back below 300 and stay there for an extended period, but the path to that status is still not clear at present.
...
For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the initial thrust of vaccinations and before summer 2021's Delta surge.
CASES: 12,197 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021
worrierking
Footballguy
I thought this article was interesting. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2022-08-scientists-antibodies-broad-immunity-sars.html
Doug B
Footballguy
Hope this develops into something applicable to humans. It could be pure kismet that macaques happen to be the animal in which these broad antibodies were found -- researchers have been testing immune response with macaques for some time now, and they had no way of knowing working macaque antibodies in 2020 would be effective against future variants.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Can someone explain the new covid guidelines? And the rationale? We are just going to let it spread uncontrollably now just in time for school and fall/winter? If you’re exposed who cares?
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Pretty much. Let 'er rip. The exposure part is understandable and, IMO, no longer necessary. And IMO the new guidelines are fine for when there are low levels of transmission happening. Which is pretty much the opposite condition of what's happening right now.
Scoresman
Footballguy
And don't forget we're also not letting you get a second booster.
Doug B
Footballguy
They won't call it "herd immunity" anymore because that implies a near-halt to community transmission. However, the CDC has collected evidence (Apr 2022 link**) that for Americans,there is now essentially "herd protection against infirmity".
New Covid-19 guidance from the CDC: Everything you need to know (CNCBC, 8/12/2022)
** the CDC's current 95% seroprevalence figure doubtlessly comes from follow-on research to what's shown in this April 2022 link. However, the link shows the state of play as of February 2022, six months ago (scroll down to the paragraph starting with "As of February 2022 ..." for the Cliffs Notes). I'd like to see a similar white paper for how seroprevalence estimates/measurements have progressed since then.
...
EDIT: Oh, that "95% has some level of immunity" is a few months old, now. The CDC released this in April 2022 (with the qualifier of '16 and older'):
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Doug B
Footballguy
Hard to be certain of this ... but it might be that the current level of COVID transmission is pretty much what "low levels" are going to be. Detected cases are gradually dropping now, as are hospitalizations and ICU admissions. The one metric left to follow is deaths.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're suggesting, but I disagree. I'm talking about the community transmission rates. There's no way this can be acceptable the "normal" levels going forward. Or I should say it shouldn't be. I mean, I don't see how it could be much higher than it is right now, to be honest. This is virtually the whole US currently showing as "High" transmission risk levels.
According to their criteria for that, that means (for their chart): New cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days >= 100 ---or--- Percentage of positive NAATs tests during the past 7 days >= 10% (*If the 2 indicators signal different levels, they take the higher of the two)
These rates were much lower before BA5. I don't remember when they flipped the map they were advertising and started looking at "Community Levels" but it was around the time just before BA5 hit, IIRC.
Doug B
Footballguy
How about if the infirmity rates continue to drop, though? If things keep progressing to the point where "a case of COVID" truly does, without hyperbole, essentially equal "a case of the common cold" ... it will be harder to argue that we need to push for more society-wide active measures to further drop the COVID transmission rates.
(Passive measures, on the other hand, should be a full go and should be enthusiastically funded and implemented. Pronto.)
When evaluating what COVID rates are "supposed to be" ... I think about how rough the case numbers would look if we tracked rhinovirus cases, enterovirus cases, legacy coronavirus cases, etc. Those viruses are all over the place and we're (collectively) transmitting them all the time. And yes, as a novel virus, SARS-CoV-2 had far worse infirmity than those other kinds of viruses -- no doubt about it.
But SARS-C0V-2 isn't going to remain a novel virus forever. It's going to become part of the viral "background radiation" that we all dealt with before COVID. And it's going to happen sooner than I think a lot of people realize -- it's not a 10-years-off thing, or even a 3-years-off thing.
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If we tested for the common cold I bet you we would have similar levels of transmission as covid right now.
Doug B
Footballguy
Your Local Epidemiologist (Dr. Katelyn Jetelina) put up a column Tuesday about what schools are doing and could be doing to reduce COVID risk for the coming school year. Some of the things she wrote about might be obsolete now since the CDC changed their guidance, but I think her section about Ventilation/Filtration is spot on. Plus she included a handy infographic about strategies to improve ventilation in buildings.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Sure, but not sure how that's relevant here.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
YLE's reaction to CDC's guidance update:
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
A reaction to the CDC guidance
Yesterday, the CDC released much anticipated guidance for COVID-19. In all, the guidance is much more “relaxed,” as headlines are detailing. It’s difficult to organize my million thoughts, but here are a few: 1. Goal. I appreciated that the CDC clearly defined their goal: reduce severe disease...
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
- Leave isolation after 5 days. We see strong evidence (here, here) that an Omicron infection lasts, on average, 8-10 days. Peak infectiousness is around day 4/5, as demonstrated from an FDA study released earlier this week. While the guidance did state to wear a mask after 5 days and/or avoid high-risk people, this narrative has already been lost.
- Community Levels map to mask. This map tells us when to take collective action so hospitals don’t surge. This does not tell us when to wear a mask for individual protection due to high transmission. If we are trying to prevent severe disease, those at most risk should know when they are at risk for infection.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Yeah, basically that's what I was trying to get at earlier. I had a similar thought typed up, but the quote machine ate it and then I got sidetracked.
The transmission levels started rising then the CDC changed to the "Community levels" map instead of the "Community transmission" map, from political pressure I'd guess.
