Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
YLE's COVID State of Affairs: July 25
As Omicron subvariants sweep the globe, the international death toll started rising for the first time in seven months. Although deaths still remain low, a 39% increase in death toll is noticeable. This increase is mainly driven by Southeast Asia (+20%), followed by the Eastern Mediterranean (+15%) and Americas (+7%).
Hospitalizations have doubled in Europe and no peaks have been seen yet for countries like France, U.K., Greece, or Italy, although hospitalizations do look to be slowing down. Notably, Australia has surpassed their previous Omicron peak for hospitalizations, and many systems are reaching capacity. Japan hospitalizations are also on the rise, which is not a surprise given that they just reported 152,538 new coronavirus cases—the biggest one-day increase on record.
United States
BA.5 was slower to claim dominance in the U.S., but now accounts for 78% of cases. And, like clockwork, once it claimed dominance, wastewater trends went upwards in all regions of the U.S. Interestingly, this uptick may be short lived as wastewater recently slowed and even reversed in some places. Case trends continue to give all sorts of weird signals, but test positivity rates seem to have peaked, too. This could be the top of the wave, which would be a surprising but welcome reprieve.
My eyes have been specifically on the pink line above—the South. With the combination of low booster rates, a heatwave (i.e. people headed inside), little BA.2.12.2 wave, low Paxlovid uptake, and little-to-no testing, severe disease may sneak up, just like we saw with Delta last summer.
On a national level, hospitalization trends continue to steadily increase. And this will continue as hospitalizations lag case trends. More than 43,000 people are in hospitals with COVID-19 on an average day. Notably, many of the acceleration leaders for hospitalizations are in the South: Arkansas, Louisiana (we did it! again!
), West Virginia, Kentucky, and Georgia.
Although hospitalizations are increasing, we are clearly in a different phase of the pandemic in regards to severe disease:
The rise in hospitalizations is driven by 70+ year olds (see figure below). The hospitalization gap between this group and other age categories continues to widen, too. Unfortunately, even some fully vaccinated groups remain at risk for hospitalization. These groups will continue to remain at high risk until transmission calms down.
On the other side of the spectrum, pediatric hospitalizations remain relatively low compared to adults. But their hospitalization rate just passed the Delta peak, while other age groups are still far below it. This is likely explained by low vaccination rates among children.
As Omicron subvariants sweep the globe, the international death toll started rising for the first time in seven months. Although deaths still remain low, a 39% increase in death toll is noticeable. This increase is mainly driven by Southeast Asia (+20%), followed by the Eastern Mediterranean (+15%) and Americas (+7%).
Hospitalizations have doubled in Europe and no peaks have been seen yet for countries like France, U.K., Greece, or Italy, although hospitalizations do look to be slowing down. Notably, Australia has surpassed their previous Omicron peak for hospitalizations, and many systems are reaching capacity. Japan hospitalizations are also on the rise, which is not a surprise given that they just reported 152,538 new coronavirus cases—the biggest one-day increase on record.
United States
BA.5 was slower to claim dominance in the U.S., but now accounts for 78% of cases. And, like clockwork, once it claimed dominance, wastewater trends went upwards in all regions of the U.S. Interestingly, this uptick may be short lived as wastewater recently slowed and even reversed in some places. Case trends continue to give all sorts of weird signals, but test positivity rates seem to have peaked, too. This could be the top of the wave, which would be a surprising but welcome reprieve.
My eyes have been specifically on the pink line above—the South. With the combination of low booster rates, a heatwave (i.e. people headed inside), little BA.2.12.2 wave, low Paxlovid uptake, and little-to-no testing, severe disease may sneak up, just like we saw with Delta last summer.
On a national level, hospitalization trends continue to steadily increase. And this will continue as hospitalizations lag case trends. More than 43,000 people are in hospitals with COVID-19 on an average day. Notably, many of the acceleration leaders for hospitalizations are in the South: Arkansas, Louisiana (we did it! again!
), West Virginia, Kentucky, and Georgia.Although hospitalizations are increasing, we are clearly in a different phase of the pandemic in regards to severe disease:
- Case hospitalization rate continues to decrease over time, especially given dramatic underreporting.
- ICU admissions—one proxy of severe COVID-19—remains relatively steady, regardless of an increase in hospitalizations overall and a highly transmissible virus sweeping the community.
The rise in hospitalizations is driven by 70+ year olds (see figure below). The hospitalization gap between this group and other age categories continues to widen, too. Unfortunately, even some fully vaccinated groups remain at risk for hospitalization. These groups will continue to remain at high risk until transmission calms down.
On the other side of the spectrum, pediatric hospitalizations remain relatively low compared to adults. But their hospitalization rate just passed the Delta peak, while other age groups are still far below it. This is likely explained by low vaccination rates among children.
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