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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (1 Viewer)

My guess has been ~70% infection with .5% mortality rate over the next 6 months
Let's not forget that survival doesn't come without damage. Some survivors are found to have suffered permanent lung damage. Hard to put a number on that now, but it looks to be higher than the death rate. So if a million people die, millions of survivors will live with lung damage the rest of their lives. 

 
This should be in the PSF, but what a horrible thing. Complete lack of leadership. There's nothing wrong about asking for clarity on these drugs, especially given Trump's claims that it would be given out immediately.
That's not the one I meant. But I made a mistake, again, bringing it up here. 

I haven't used the Politics forum, which I should have for this. Sorry, I'll make sure to stop doing it here.

 
Yes.

If my wife works for the govt and tells me something she actually heard at work, is that not factual?

Is there an authoritative voice of facts somewhere?  Is it Wikipedia?  Is it encyclopedia Britannica?  Where is the book of facts which we get our information from?

Is there anything factual on CNN and/or FOXNEWS?  Is it twitter?  Is it snapchat, facebook, tik tok, vine?  Seriously, Id like to know where I can get the facts.
Ok. Have a good day. I'll just say I hope the moderators understand the importance of curbing rumors in this thread.

 
I've heard different interpretations of Governor Newsom's order in CA re staying at home.  This is the order - Order.

As I read the Order, there are numerous exceptions to having to stay at home - almost to the point of making the Order useless.  The Order requires "all individuals living in the State of California to stay home or at their place of residence except as needed to maintain continuity of operations of the federal critical infrastructure sectors, as outlined at https://www.cisa.gov/identifying-critical-infrastructure-during-covid-19."

The "federal critical infrastructures" are listed here - Federal Critical Infrastructures.  The list includes 16 sectors, which can be further broken down into subsectors.  Just one example of how the Order doesn't align with the public perception of the Order is this:  One of the 16 sectors is the Commercial Facilities Sector - Commercial Facilities Sector.  This sector includes casinos, hotels, amusement parks, office buildings, malls, sports venues, and other areas which, of course, are closed and should be closed.  But, according to the Order, citizens are permitted to leave their home to ensure the continued operation of these facilities.

In short, the spirit of the Order (to stay at home unless necessary to leave), is different than the express terms of the Order.  Under the express terms of the Order, it appears that numerous exceptions are there for people to leave there homes.  For example, the LA Times reports that the operation of marijuana dispensaries is an "essential service" that can remain open despite the Order - Link.  So, if you're in LA and get pulled over by a cop during the lockdown, you can just respond "It's cool, officer, I'm just going to buy some weed."

 
I don't think it's realistic to even have one in 20 people in a given society to achieve this without immense outside interference in personal lives. People, as a collective, don't work like that. No, not everyone can do it. Like all human endeavors, not everyone has the same capacity.
What about for people who receive X amount of govt financial assistance they are required by the govt to have a small % of their pay check put into fixed income growing interest until they have 3 months of living expenses.  This money can be made back available to them upon retirement tax free.  Should the govt exact this type of situation again, that money can be used to pay for expenses.

 
I don't find anything funny about the older population, especially in this scary time for them, making requests of what they want. I hope you looked for it if you went to the store to help.
I am not adding social encounters so that somebody can have Evian water, nor should anybody else. That is asinine.

 
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Why not? Might miss a few here and there but they generally do autopsy on those people. The number of undiagnosed infected is FAR greater
There was ZERO testing from Dec-Now.  How many "flu like" deaths have their been?  The flu usually kills 22-55k per year.  Im guessing that number will be much higher this year.

 
You didn't claim an exact number, but you were claiming that it either has to be a low number or it must not be spreading as fast as we fear.  That's what I pushed back on. 
The bold is 100% correct, mathematically.  We simply don't have enough deaths for it to be otherwise.
I don't know how many different ways I can try to explain this so that you understand.  You are wrong.

 
If tap is OK, they should be worrying about other essentials and not their fancy bottled water
Wow. I'm sure they are. What does it hurt to try and help with what they like? They are older and scared. The bottled water is something small they would appreciate. It's about mental and emotional health especially for them as well.

 
Ok. Have a good day. I'll just say I hope the moderators understand the importance of curbing rumors in this thread.
👋 Nice job avoiding my question.

The reality is that information is really important right now.  There is a lot of it, some good some not so good.  Ive been using this forum to "read the tea leaves".  What I mean is I use it to correlate info from outside my area to things I know from my area.  I use this information to try to make informed decisions for my family.

If all we did was react to facts, we would be behind by the time information comes out.

For example - I filled up my gas tanks because of this thread (as well as other indicators).  Why?  First, I could think of a few scenario where stations may shut down.  Secondly, it really wasnt a big deal.  I mean, I go to the station and fill up on gas that will eventually get used anyway.  Whats the big deal?  The worst scenario would have been if I didnt fill up my gas and missed my chance.

Guess what?  I can still get gas today and Im not wounded over it.

 
Help is not something that is unlimited. 

If I see a bus crash, run to it, and ask does anyone need help, and someone responds "Yes, I would like a Big Mac, fries and Coke" it should be obvious that is a request for help that should be ignored, and even laughed at, if not scorned. 
Silly comparison. Obviously some of you have never worked with older folks to understand their psyche. Most are depressed and the little things are all they have. They are not in the same realm as us younger folks. For OLDER people it's equally about their mental health. If you can't see this I don't know what else to say. 

 
I don't know how many different ways I can try to explain this so that you understand.  You are wrong.
You can't explain away math.  Nobody is claiming the mortality rate is 3.5% anymore.  Most everyone agrees it's 1.0% or less.
I can't believe I'm still doing this.

The ratio of total infected people to total infected people that die is a meaningful number.  But we can't know that number until all of those confirmed infected people either die or recover.  Right now the overwhelming majority of confirmed cases have neither died nor recovered.  We don't know anything about what the ratio will be within that group.  It may turn out to be high, it might be low.  

 
I like that.  I was saying 1.0% when a lot of people in here was saying 3.5%.  Now I'm starting to think it's lower than 1.0% and that's all I'm trying to say.
The problem is 0.6% of what? If it’s of all people in the U.S., that’s 2 million people. 

I have posted several times that the math and the reported numbers are really fuzzy. It’s simple to plug in numbers into a model or forecast, but with no one really sure what the numbers getting entered in are, the potential outcomes will invariably end up all over the map. 

 
I'm with @Apple Jack on this one. To be fair, I think bottled water here in the US is the most ridiculous thing
I don't think arguing about if it's overrated or not is appropriate in the time of a health crisis nor is it the time to try and tell my dad he can't have something to help keep him sane and perhaps a little bit happier. Thankfully my bro who helps care for him agrees. 

 
I can't believe I'm still doing this.

The ratio of total infected people to total infected people that die is a meaningful number.  But we can't know that number until all of those confirmed infected people either die or recover.  Right now the overwhelming majority of confirmed cases have neither died nor recovered.  We don't know anything about what the ratio will be within that group.  It may turn out to be high, it might be low.  
Only 4% of infected require critical care.  It's very easy to make educated guesses.  The biggest unknown is the number truely infected, and people were speculating that it is very very high.  I tend to agree and that's my point.

 
The problem is 0.6% of what? If it’s of all people in the U.S., that’s 2 million people. 

I have posted several times that the math and the reported numbers are really fuzzy. It’s simple to plug in numbers into a model or forecast, but with no one really sure what the numbers getting entered in are, the potential outcomes will invariably end up all over the map. 
All over the map of a normal distribution.  The median is the magnitude of the number you reported.

 
Silly comparison. Obviously some of you have never worked with older folks to understand their psyche. Most are depressed and the little things are all they have. They are not in the same realm as us younger folks. For OLDER people it's equally about their mental health. If you can't see this I don't know what else to say. 
I'm familiar with older people, thanks. They can deal with whatever bottled water they have on hand and drink tap water for a little while. It's clean water. You drink it. We are making trips for people who genuinely need food, TP, medicine, and any other essentials. It's not about being inconvenienced, it's about the unnecessary encounters. I'd have no problem getting somebody Evian (second choice Fiji) under normal circumstances. In terms of mental health, we are touching base with these people and chatting with them.

 
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