*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (2 Viewers)

[FBG26]

I’m expecting the labor and delivery units to be hopping end of this year, beginning of next. 

Maybe, but they'll all be the oldest / firsts. Nobody that's had kids at home during this is is stupid enough to have another, amirite?

 

[[icon]]

Kinda shocked to see folks still engaging Matuski... quoting his drivel kinda defeats the ignore feature for those of us who gave up on him a while back. 

 

[Otis]

Are you?

Are you proud of New York's response?

Are you proud of the delay in shutting down from Cuomo?

Are you proud of the decision to direct Covid-19 patients to nursing homes?

Are you proud that New York accounts for nearly 1 in 4 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S.?

I think Cuomo and New York did a great job, and I am proud.  New York flattened the curve—a curve that got out of control before people widely really understood what this was or how to deal with it.  To compare that to Florida and Texas handling this thing in July is silly. (But even if you do, Florida has now topped New York’s single day record with 15,300 cases—more than New York ever had. Months ago.  When this was still a new thing.)

And to compare the death rate to the death rate in March-April is likewise absurd. Doctors are way more educated and capable to treat this now than they were back then. There are plenty of scientific journal publications in the interim demonstrating as much. Just such an absurd comparison. But yes, let’s take a moment to lol at the March 2020 doctors in New York who lost more patients.

What’s happening today in July 2020 in certain areas of this country is truly embarrassing, shameful, and tragic.  I hope those areas start to take it seriously. And I hope the people in government who the masses in those areas pay attention to will start setting a better example. 

 

[Otis]

I could see us having a yearly month-long lockdown in January that is preplanned ahead of time.  It being preplanned would help people stock up on what they need and for businesses to adjust as much as possible.

This is smart. A preplanned lockdown schedule makes great sense and would also benefit the economy, as business could ramp up and pre sell before, and wouldn’t be hammered when afterwards there are diminished sales during lockdown periods. Would be better for everyone really.
 

Heck, this thing only lasts 2 weeks, so a completely lockdown for just a month across the country would theoretically stop this dead in its tracks. I guess politically that’s unlikely to happen. 

 

[culdeus]

I think fomites are mostly not a vector. I think they have stuck with handwashing guidance because it is beneficial for other diseases and they never want to de-emphasize that. 

I dunno the hand washing memes early on pushed on Facebook were from hoaxers.   I look very sideways at anyone pushing a hand wash regimine as a line of defense. 

 

[Otis]

So. Flying is the biggest joke of the pandemic. 

Keep your distance, unless you fly American. 

I barely get as close to my wife as I do this lady flapping her arms into me as she belts herself in.

Christ, lady...are you part condor!?

Why are you flying??

 

[TheWinz]

Decided to do some math.  Went on worldometer to see overall positivity rates since the beginning of this pandemic.  Have the current outbreak states passed the New England states?  Here goes...

13% - AZ (13.94)
12% - none
11% - none
10% - MA (10.92), NJ (10.88), PA (10.76), AL (10.49), FL (10.47), MS (10.20), NE (10.08)
9% - SC (9.88), TX (9.57), DE (9.50), IA (9.41), CO (9.40), MD (9.29), GA (9.19), IN (9.14), NY (9.13)
8% - KS (8.67), CT (8.50), ID (8.44), SD (8.32), LA (8.31)
7% - VA (7.98), IL (7.93), AR (7.40), NC (7.14), UT (7.12)
6% - OH (6.56), NV (6.51), RI (6.39), WA (6.10), CA (6.07), TN (6.06)
5% - MN (5.60), MO (5.49), WI (5.23), MI (5.18)
4% - OK (4.67), OR (4.06), KY (4.02)
3% - NH (3.89), NM (3.60), ND (3.54), WY (3.32)
2% - ME (2.77), WV (2.05)
1% - VT (1.73), MT (1.53), HI (1.08)
Under 1% - AK (0.97)

As most of you know, I've been tracking CT since the start.  Just to give you an idea of how these numbers have changed over time, let's work back month by month:
10 Jul - 8.50%
10 Jun - 14.08%
10 May - 25.77%
10 Apr - 29.04%

 

[Otis]

His point was very valid. Nobody should be praising New York. 

I disagree.  New York beat this with far bigger challenges and under far more difficult circumstances. 

 

[Capella]

Man Florida is a nightmare. I haven’t really left the house other than for neighborhood walks since March and all it has done is get worse. 
 

Scheduled for routine blood work on Tuesday. They require masks and all that but still....  

 

[Otis]

Man Florida is a nightmare. I haven’t really left the house other than for neighborhood walks since March and all it has done is get worse. 
 

Scheduled for routine blood work on Tuesday. They require masks and all that but still....  

Have to go?  Me dentist called to confirm me for a routine cleaning. I punted for a few months. I’ll just brush extra good in the meantime....

 

[TheWinz]

Reading between the lines ... you don't think simple-breathing aerosols (through regular ol' calm breathing through the nose) spreads the virus at all inside of indoor spaces? Is that a line of BS we're being fed by ... whoever? The CDC?

Contrived situation to make a point: You and three others are inside of a large elevator (call it an 8' square). One of the others is a COVID carrier, but is not coughing or sneezing -- just has a low fever and a weakened taste/smell sense. While no one else on the elevator is aware of the COVID carrier, everyone is cognizant of the general COVID risk and thus generally remains in their corners of the elevator for the duration. No one has a face covering, and the elevator's air is not well ventilated.

So ... this elevator stops between floors and it takes about two hours to get everyone out. You feel pretty good about coming out of that elevator without an infection?

Please tell me you meant 2 minutes instead of 2 hours?

 

[Capella]

Have to go?  Me dentist called to confirm me for a routine cleaning. I punted for a few months. I’ll just brush extra good in the meantime....

I get my blood work done annually. I don’t have to but I’m still a little chubby and would like to know if anything is going on. It’s not going to get better around here anytime soon so I don’t know if postponing it matters if I want to do it. 

 

[Don Hutson]

So ... this elevator stops between floors and it takes about two hours to get everyone out. You feel pretty good about coming out of that elevator without an infection?

You should probably start the rough draft of your obituary.  You've got 2 weeks so there is no hurry.

 

[Otis]

I get my blood work done annually. I don’t have to but I’m still a little chubby and would like to know if anything is going on. It’s not going to get better around here anytime soon so I don’t know if postponing it matters if I want to do it. 

If being a little chubby puts one at risk, please slide over and make some room. 

 

[Doug B]

Please tell me you meant 2 minutes instead of 2 hours?

Nope — two hours. If he downplays face coverings in favor of keeping 6 feet apart, I am curious about his general stance on aerosol spread (as opposed to large droplets from coughs, sneezes, singing, shouting, etc.).

 

[TheWinz]

The last time I dipped into this mask conversation I got hit with the WHAT IF SOMEONE WALKED UP AND SPIT IN YOUR FACE, WHAT THEN!? hypothetical.

I found your solution to this ridiculous fear.

That was me who asked the stupid question 

The point I was trying to make was simply that anything over your nose and mouth is better than nothing, both for you and for people you come near.  Do you agree that literally anything is better than nothing, both to protect others from you and you from others?  If not, I'd love to hear why nothing is better than something.

 

[Otis]

Kind of astonishing they reopened Disney despite what’s happening in Florida. Eesh.  

 

[Don Hutson]

Kind of astonishing they reopened Disney despite what’s happening in Florida. Eesh.  

At least it's outside.  And it's crowded but not crowded like a football game or concert.  My guess is that outdoor transmission is only risky when people are in extremely close quarters.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Kind of astonishing they reopened Disney despite what’s happening in Florida. Eesh.  

https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/hpld02/streamers_at_disney_world_one_of_them_is_sick_but/

 

[Otis]

At least it's outside.  And it's crowded but not crowded like a football game or concert.  My guess is that outdoor transmission is only risky when people are in extremely close quarters.

I take it you’ve never been to Disney. 

 

[beer 30]

There have been a couple articles that have talked about the fact that this isn't going away anytime soon. As in, years. Get used to masks and intermittent lockdowns for the next 2-3 years at least. I'm beginning to believe that's a conservative outlook.

I don’t think it’s going anywhere anytime soon unless there is some miraculous stuff happening and it doesn’t appear the Ole Mighty One is injecting himself into this one.

So imagine all the push back we are seeing on masks in some areas and the ‘but my freedom’ folks who refuse to adhere to the current public norms after a year of this...two years? There will be civil wars over this.

 

[Don Hutson]

I take it you’ve never been to Disney. 

I went to Disneyland once in 1980.  It was crowded but it wasn't shoulder-to-shoulder except in lines.  I would hope they would have some social distancing in effect in lines.  A person outdoors even 2 or 3 feet away from you doesn't convey much risk.

 

[flranger]

I could see us having a yearly month-long lockdown in January that is preplanned ahead of time.  It being preplanned would help people stock up on what they need and for businesses to adjust as much as possible.

If that ever happened, might as well make it two weeks of Christmas and first week of January

 

[EZD222]

Has anyone talked about Thanksgiving or Christmas? I feel like those are nightmare scenarios that the average person isn't thinking about. The amount of people that are going to travel and then congregate indoors....oof.

And we can't pull off shutting down the country like China did for CNY. 

 

[Angry Beavers]

I had been quarantining for 2 weeks, my wifes parents were quarantining for 2 weeks, and my brother in laws family was quarantining for 2 weeks so we could all hang out together.

We drove all the way to el paso without going into a single gas station, we peed on the side of the road, etc.

I am good friends with my brother in law and I was looking forward to some social interaction. We were each going to take a few days off work to play some board games, however last night his wife went to a 30 person wedding where no one was wearing masks.  So now I am stuck at my wife's parents and my brother in law knows that now he cannot visit.

My brother in laws wife is incredibly selfish, she ruined the week for her husband and he already put the vacation in the system. So now he has to eat the vacation and cannot do anything. Not to mention going to a 30 person wedding is incredibly stupid and puts their family at risk.

His wife did not know beforehand about the wedding. Seems stupid. I applaud you being super careful, but I can not say I would necessarily take the same stance without knowing more about the wedding ( inside or outside), buffet, how close the wife was to other guests. Yes, I would look for a way to reasonably justify the trip rather than just scrap it without knowing more detail. 

 

[Flying Elvis]

Man Florida is a nightmare. I haven’t really left the house other than for neighborhood walks since March and all it has done is get worse. 
 

Scheduled for routine blood work on Tuesday. They require masks and all that but still....  

I get my blood work done annually. I don’t have to but I’m still a little chubby and would like to know if anything is going on. It’s not going to get better around here anytime soon so I don’t know if postponing it matters if I want to do it. 

Routine draw can wait. It will get better in FL. When it does, get the blood work done. 

 

[Flying Elvis]

duplicate post

 

[Flying Elvis]

Man Florida is a nightmare. I haven’t really left the house other than for neighborhood walks since March and all it has done is get worse. 
 

Scheduled for routine blood work on Tuesday. They require masks and all that but still....  

I get my blood work done annually. I don’t have to but I’m still a little chubby and would like to know if anything is going on. It’s not going to get better around here anytime soon so I don’t know if postponing it matters if I want to do it. 

Routine draw can wait. It will get better in FL. When it does, get the blood work done. At that point everyone will be taking it way more seriously and you'll feel safer about getting it done. Just go once they set up the safety protocols. Go when they tell you to call/text from the parking lot to announce your arrival so they can send someone out to take temps and escort you to the lab. That way your blood pressure won't be high.

If they're already doing that now, you should be good to go to your scheduled appointment this week.

 

[Sand]

https://www.facebook.com/1090271592/posts/10221688436815434/?d=n
 

Day 112. Wear a mask, its really not a big deal. Hell, you wear almost the same thing over your face if its too cold or too windy -if wearing a covering is not an inconvenience for you, or an encroachment on your constitutional rights, so you can protect your face from some cold air, it shouldn't be an inconvenience for you so you can save a life.

I am usually not one to post any real thoughts on social media. It seems that they are always the first to get lost in the mix of memes, jokes and, worst of all, false or misleading information. But, I am taking a chance in the hopes that this information will help just one person make a potentially life-saving decision, either for themselves or someone they love. This is not a political issue, this is not a social issue – COVID-19 is a human issue. It is up to us, as a human race, to make a difference and to dictate how we move forward from this unprecedented time.

I am what has been increasingly referred to as a “long-hauler” – I had my first symptoms of COVID take hold on March 15, 2020: 112 days ago and, although I may be free of the unrelenting fever that plagued me for 67 consecutive days, I have never felt less like myself.

I played sports my entire life, I started playing football when I was just six years old. I raced in my first ski race before I was in first grade, I was a three sport athlete through high school and was able to realize a life-long goal of mine by playing football at Tulane. Now, I can barely walk to the grocery store without losing my breath and if I do manage to make it there and back, I am too exhausted to do anything but lay in bed for the rest of the day.

On March 20th, the fifth day after my symptoms started, my doctor advised me that she would feel “uncomfortable if [she] didn’t tell me to go to the emergency room.” This is when everything changed. I, too, was one of the twenty-something year old millennials dismissing the severity of this virus and the effects it has on people. By that afternoon, I was hooked up to an IV and supplemental oxygen in the emergency room with a temperature over 100.0 degrees for the fifth day in a row and could barely sit and/or stand without coughing/weezing. On top of that, I found myself laying on this gurney, uncomfortable as I already was, with a resting heart rate over 145 beats a minute (my normal resting heart rate is between 52-58 beats a minute). If I stood up, I felt as though I was about to pass out without even taking a step. After about three hours struggling to breathe and “relax” one of the E.R. doctors let me know that I would have to be admitted. At this point, I knew it was bad. COVID had resulted in double viral pneumonia and tachycardia (the elevated heart rate). I was terrified and alone (E.R. did not permit anyone to be with me).

Yet, not too long after that, the attending E.R. doctor informed me that, although someone in my condition would never be sent home in a normal situation, there was no capacity to admit any patient that did not need to be put on a ventilator and, she continued to explain, my oxygen levels were not “low enough, yet.” I thought being admitted was terrifying but, let me be very clear, I have never been more terrified than when the doctor told me I had to go home. I truly did not know if I would survive what the virus was doing to my body if I was to be at home.

I did not leave bed for the better part of three weeks after my hospital visit and could not even walk to the bathroom unassisted, if at all. I lost 15 pounds in just as many days. Then, I had some hope.

About halfway through April, I was starting to be able to stay awake, breathe a little easier and managed to walk around the house. I was…. surprised. Even just days after that, I found myself being able to do some work. But, that’s about where the progress stopped.

I had a fever everyday for 67 consecutive days, it exhausted me, it depleted me, physically and emotionally and, in some ways, it was worse than the initial onset of symptoms. There was no end in sight.

I have been fever free since the 68th day following the onset of my symptoms but I am far from normal. The physical side effects are troubling and I don’t see any chance of a return to real activity for quite some time; however, worse than the trouble breathing on the way to the grocery store or down the hallway is the constant fatigue, trouble concentrating and other neurological issues. Its only been 112 days but I feel 40 years older. It takes me twice as long to do certain things than would have taken me pre-COVID. It is extremely difficult to concentrate on a project or task for more than an hour or two at a time. Most frustrating, however, are the times I am speaking, or get up to do something, and the thought process is just erased from my brain. No recollection of what I was trying to articulate or do - something as simple as getting up to go get my phone charger results in my standing in my bedroom doorway scratching my head in frustration because I am unable to remember what I was doing.

Two weeks ago was my 28th birthday, but it feels like it could have been by 68th. My symptoms are gone but my recovery, and the recovery of others like me, is just beginning.

No matter who you are, where you live or what political party you support or don’t support, what news channel you watch, each of you has someone you care about and who cares about you. This is not as easy as “hey, its fine I’ll get over it in a few weeks”. Once the symptoms of the active virus are gone, the true unrelenting character and veracity of COVID comes out.

Take care of yourself. Take care of those people whom you love. Take care of everyone. If you don’t, we may never be the same.

I just sent this to my indestructible 21 year old.

 

[shadyridr]

Reminds me of Chinese New Year, which was soon after the outbreak began in Wuhan. Government tried to stop travel, but many had already moved and it surely made things worse.

My guess is that four things will happen.

1. Travel and gatherings will be discouraged by health agencies

3. A lot of people will defiantly ignore those warnings 

4. It will be massively politicized

5. A wave will result

— BTW, it’s the right time to start talking about strategies for the holidays. Thanksgiving is roughly as far off as from the start of quarantines until now.

Scared to death of the second thing

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

I just sent this to my indestructible 21 year old.

Send him the 30 year old one also.

It’s literally a tragedy, if he could ever know it saved one life though there might be some solace...

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Routine draw can wait. It will get better in FL. When it does, get the blood work done. At that point everyone will be taking it way more seriously and you'll feel safer about getting it done. Just go once they set up the safety protocols. Go when they tell you to call/text from the parking lot to announce your arrival so they can send someone out to take temps and escort you to the lab. That way your blood pressure won't be high.

If they're already doing that now, you should be good to go to your scheduled appointment this week.

Or he could just go to the doctor

 

[Capella]

Routine draw can wait. It will get better in FL. When it does, get the blood work done. At that point everyone will be taking it way more seriously and you'll feel safer about getting it done. Just go once they set up the safety protocols. Go when they tell you to call/text from the parking lot to announce your arrival so they can send someone out to take temps and escort you to the lab. That way your blood pressure won't be high.

If they're already doing that now, you should be good to go to your scheduled appointment this week.

Yea the plan according to them is for me to sit in my car, they come and get me, take my temp outside and go into the room they use. I’m the second appointment of the day (0730) and obviously I’ll have a mask and so will staff. Seems safe...ish?

 

[Flying Elvis]

Yea the plan according to them is for me to sit in my car, they come and get me, take my temp outside and go into the room they use. I’m the second appointment of the day (0730) and obviously I’ll have a mask and so will staff. Seems safe...ish?

Yes, that's the best we can expect/do in this lousy situation. Go to your appointment. I've already had to do ~4 of those with my kids for annual visits and urgent care visit. As long as you know they're taking it all serious, you go. 

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Yea the plan according to them is for me to sit in my car, they come and get me, take my temp outside and go into the room they use. I’m the second appointment of the day (0730) and obviously I’ll have a mask and so will staff. Seems safe...ish?

You’ll be fine

 

[Doug B]

Eric Feigl-Ding  @DrEricDing · 15h

Very intriguing - SARS-CoV-2 pre-existing immune reactivity might exists to some degree in the general population (maybe 20-50%?). It is speculated, but not yet proven, that this might be due to immunity to previous common cold coronavirus. Need to learn more. #COVID19

Nature Research  @nresearchnews · Jul 10

Studies have shown T cell reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 in 20–50% of unexposed individuals. A Nature Reviews Immunology Comment article discusses the potential implications of these findings for disease severity, herd immunity and vaccine development. https://go.nature.com/2W1KoQq

Some of the crew over at Saintsreport that follow COVID closely swear by Dr. Ding. He is both an epidemiologist and an economist who works with Harvard University's School of Public Health.

 

[Doug B]

Pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2: the knowns and unknowns (Nature Reviews Immunology, 7/7/2020)

T cell reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 was observed in unexposed people; however, the source and clinical relevance of the reactivity remains unknown. It is speculated that this reflects T cell memory to circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses. It will be important to define specificities of these T cells and assess their association with COVID-19 disease severity and vaccine responses.

As data start to accumulate on the detection and characterization of SARS-CoV-2 T cell responses in humans, a surprising finding has been reported: lymphocytes from 20–50% of unexposed donors display significant reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 antigen peptide pools.

...

What are the implications of these observations? The potential for pre-existing crossreactivity against COVID-19 in a fraction of the human population has led to extensive speculation. Pre-existing T cell immunity to SARS-CoV-2 could be relevant because it could influence COVID-19 disease severity. It is plausible that people with a high level of pre-existing memory CD4+ T cells that recognize SARS-CoV-2 could mount a faster and stronger immune response upon exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and thereby limit disease severity. Memory T follicular helper (TFH) CD4+ T cells could potentially facilitate an increased and more rapid neutralizing antibody response against SARS-CoV-2. Memory CD4+ and CD8+ T cells might also facilitate direct antiviral immunity in the lungs and nasopharynx early after exposure, in keeping with our understanding of antiviral CD4+ T cells in lungs against the related SARS-CoV7 and our general understanding of the value of memory CD8+ T cells in protection from viral infections. Large studies in which pre-existing immunity is measured and correlated with prospective infection and disease severity could address the possible role of pre-existing T cell memory against SARS-CoV-2.

 

[SoBeDad]

The numbers of hospitalized COVID-19 inpatients continues to rise in Miami-Dade.

Across the Jackson Health System hospitals, we currently have 387 inpatients who have tested positive for COVID-19, and we have safely discharged a total of 1,297 since the pandemic began.

>> Note capacity inching upward as Miami-Dade hospitals are playing musical chars but with ICU beds. This is a healthcare system at serious risk of being overwhelmed if growth doesn’t slow, and soon. <<

https://mobile.twitter.com/conarck/status/1282390940712423426

 

[Sand]

Interesting article here about the possible issues with distribution of vaccine.  I can see a huge amount of politicization and screaming at each other over who gets theirs first when and if a vaccine is produced.  There had to be an order, though.  I just hope it's something sane.  Those with immune conditions (chemo, etc.), Medical workers, and the elderly should be first.  Then probably the working populace, and then the rest.  

But I expect a huge amount of blowback on whatever scheme is used.  Nothing like a crisis to use for advantage.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

To compare that to Florida and Texas handling this thing in July is silly. (But even if you do, Florida has now topped New York’s single day record with 15,300 cases—more than New York ever had. Months ago.  When this was still a new thing.)

Good grief. What do you think the case count would have been in March / April in New York with the current number of tests being performed daily? The level of intentional self-ignorance is reaching obnoxious scales. People are being comically obtuse about current testing levels, R0 values, and number of deaths to perpetuate the notion that what we're dealing with now is anywhere near as bad as where we were 4 months ago. Just flat-out ignoring real numbers to focus on high case counts, which are overwhelmingly asymptomatic, and almost assuredly would have been there in the same volume all along if we had the same testing capability months prior.

Without even attempting to acknowledge these current facts, the discussion here is fatally flawed.

And New York would not and should not have taken 4 months to bring this under control if not for gross negligence by its elected officials and the great amount of time wasted before embracing masks. I'm thrilled you and other New Yorkers are no longer living a nightmare, but the state has nothing to be proud of aside from the mere passage of time.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Interesting article here about the possible issues with distribution of vaccine.  I can see a huge amount of politicization and screaming at each other over who gets theirs first when and if a vaccine is produced.  There had to be an order, though.  I just hope it's something sane.  Those with immune conditions (chemo, etc.), Medical workers, and the elderly should be first.  Then probably the working populace, and then the rest.  

But I expect a huge amount of blowback on whatever scheme is used.  Nothing like a crisis to use for advantage.

Article like this is concerning because they talk about a vaccine like it’s a done deal.

Let’s get the vaccine breakthrough first (which may just rescue the planet) and then maybe focus on logistics?

 

[Otis]

Good grief. What do you think the case count would have been in March / April in New York with the current number of tests being performed daily? The level of intentional self-ignorance is reaching obnoxious scales. People are being comically obtuse about current testing levels, R0 values, and number of deaths to perpetuate the notion that what we're dealing with now is anywhere near as bad as where we were 4 months ago. Just flat-out ignoring real numbers to focus on high case counts, which are overwhelmingly asymptomatic, and almost assuredly would have been there in the same volume all along if we had the same testing capability months prior.

Without even attempting to acknowledge these current facts, the discussion here is fatally flawed.

And New York would not and should not have taken 4 months to bring this under control if not for gross negligence by its elected officials and the great amount of time wasted before embracing masks. I'm thrilled you and other New Yorkers are no longer living a nightmare, but the state has nothing to be proud of aside from the mere passage of time.

We embraced masks months ago. Texas just did. Florida won’t. 
 

Lots of dramatic thesaurus words doesn’t make your post right. I stand by mine.  New York, the biggest city in the country, went through a nightmare and got this under wraps months ago. The south and west snickered that it was a big hoax. Months later—even without the challenges of massive populations in small spaces forced into public transportation—the south and west are getting hammered. These people drive to the Piggly Wiggly in air conditioned Dodge Ram pickups, pretty easy circumstances with which to avoid this virus. Yet here we are. Meanwhile N.Y. took responsible action and beat it. 
 

Funny how you focus on numbers when you like them and then reject the numbers when you don’t. You’re all sorts of wrong. Sorry. 

 

[The Big Donkey]

Interesting article here about the possible issues with distribution of vaccine.  I can see a huge amount of politicization and screaming at each other over who gets theirs first when and if a vaccine is produced.  There had to be an order, though.  I just hope it's something sane.  Those with immune conditions (chemo, etc.), Medical workers, and the elderly should be first.  Then probably the working populace, and then the rest.  

But I expect a huge amount of blowback on whatever scheme is used.  Nothing like a crisis to use for advantage.

They should do it like it was done in Contagion.

 

[gianmarco]

Good grief. What do you think the case count would have been in March / April in New York with the current number of tests being performed daily? The level of intentional self-ignorance is reaching obnoxious scales. People are being comically obtuse about current testing levels, R0 values, and number of deaths to perpetuate the notion that what we're dealing with now is anywhere near as bad as where we were 4 months ago. Just flat-out ignoring real numbers to focus on high case counts, which are overwhelmingly asymptomatic, and almost assuredly would have been there in the same volume all along if we had the same testing capability months prior.

Without even attempting to acknowledge these current facts, the discussion here is fatally flawed.

And New York would not and should not have taken 4 months to bring this under control if not for gross negligence by its elected officials and the great amount of time wasted before embracing masks. I'm thrilled you and other New Yorkers are no longer living a nightmare, but the state has nothing to be proud of aside from the mere passage of time.

This is just flat out wrong.

Hospitals are filling to capacity across the country.  Not just in a few hot spots.  And, unlike 4 months ago, most of those places are charging full steam ahead without trying to limit further spread.

 

[Otis]

This is just flat out wrong.

Hospitals are filling to capacity across the country.  Not just in a few hot spots.  And, unlike 4 months ago, most of those places are charging full steam ahead without trying to limit further spread.

Thank you. 

 

[Sand]

Article like this is concerning because they talk about a vaccine like it’s a done deal.

Let’s get the vaccine breakthrough first (which may just rescue the planet) and then maybe focus on logistics?

These things all need to be in place.  There is a huge panic at places like Corning to make enough vials to hold all the vaccine doses needed.

I'm I've of the folks who thinks a vaccine is coming.  Pfizer is already testing one.

 

[Aerial Assault]

We embraced masks months ago. Texas just did. Florida won’t. 
 

Lots of dramatic thesaurus words doesn’t make your post right. I stand by mine.  New York, the biggest city in the country, went through a nightmare and got this under wraps months ago. The south and west snickered that it was a big hoax. Months later—even without the challenges of massive populations in small spaces forced into public transportation—the south and west are getting hammered. These people drive to the Piggly Wiggly in air conditioned Dodge Ram pickups, pretty easy circumstances with which to avoid this virus. Yet here we are. Meanwhile N.Y. took responsible action and beat it. 
 

Funny how you focus on numbers when you like them and then reject the numbers when you don’t. You’re all sorts of wrong. Sorry. 

Don't be sorry.  Ignore him like everyone else.  His contributions are of no value.  

 

[Terminalxylem]

Assuming that all aerosolized diseases would have similar rates of spread seems very odd to me.

Measles has lifelong immunity. We obviously arent making that assumption for covid. 

In general, aerosolized diseases have higher Ro than droplet, usually 10 or greater. Droplet are more like 1.something - 6. There’s certainly some variability, as other factors influence spread as well (as I said in my post).

It would be foolish to assume we have lifelong immunity to a novel infection. For reasons I don’t fully understand, we seem to have a harder time with RNA virus respiratory infections, including other coronaviruses, where immunity appears incomplete. The topic is discussed here.

 

[shader]

Good grief. What do you think the case count would have been in March / April in New York with the current number of tests being performed daily? The level of intentional self-ignorance is reaching obnoxious scales. People are being comically obtuse about current testing levels, R0 values, and number of deaths to perpetuate the notion that what we're dealing with now is anywhere near as bad as where we were 4 months ago. Just flat-out ignoring real numbers to focus on high case counts, which are overwhelmingly asymptomatic, and almost assuredly would have been there in the same volume all along if we had the same testing capability months prior.

Without even attempting to acknowledge these current facts, the discussion here is fatally flawed.

And New York would not and should not have taken 4 months to bring this under control if not for gross negligence by its elected officials and the great amount of time wasted before embracing masks. I'm thrilled you and other New Yorkers are no longer living a nightmare, but the state has nothing to be proud of aside from the mere passage of time.

You’re right on one point.  New York’s case counts early on weren’t accurate and can’t be compared to states today.  It’s likely that with proper testing, New York would have had 40-100k cases a day at their peak. 

But you’re wrong everywhere else.  New York had a massive issue before they even knew what hit them.  The state of testing in the USA was horrid at the time.  Health experts weren’t recommending masks.  People (like you) were promoting hydroxychloroquine. (Though to your credit, I do recall your promoting masks early on)

New York went into a lockdown 4 weeks before their deaths peaked. 
 

Basically, NYC got dealt a terrible hand.
 

As a center of travel, a city with one of the highest densities in the USA, and a subway system that likely allowed this to explode in a population not prepared for it, NYC was screwed from the start.

Yet despite that, they locked down FOUR WEEKS BEFORE their peak deaths hit.  
 

So in a lot of ways they did a beautiful job of taking a horrific situation, and making the best of it.

Florida, Texas, California and similar states have no excuses for what’s happening now.  They saw what happened in NY, and are STILL not doing what NY did.

These southern states have some advantages.  Lower density, many in the population are scared and are staying home,  many wear masks, it’s humid, we know more about the virus now, and there is a supply of remdesivir (which has some benefit)

Deapite all those advantages, their situations are deteriorating to a point where many cities could possibly have similar per capita death rates. 

 

[Apple Jack]

Let's all go to Disney World!