TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline reports that some of his NFL sources believe Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg will get taken before Paxton Lynch.
Out of nowhere, Hackenberg has been infused with some serious stock helium over the past 24 hours. First, MMQB's Peter King report that the Bills will consider him in Rd. 1, now the even more unbelievable dispatch that Hack may go over Lynch, who most consider a top-20 lock. Interestingly, just like King didn't believe that Buffalo would actually take Hack in Rd. 1, Pauline also doesn't believe Hack will go over Lynch. "I do not buy this opinion, but expect Hackenberg to be off the board during the early part of the second round as the San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins are all considering him in the top half of that frame," Pauline wrote.
Source: Philadelphia Eagles website
Canary, meet coal mineI'm a PSU alum, so I'm rooting for Hack anyway. But I find him fascinating because to me, he could be a "canary in the coalmine."
Let me explain.
NFL draft "experts" fall into two camps: mock draft experts and ranking experts. There is a difference. A mock draft should be done to match the needs/tendencies of a NFL teams with the available prospects. It really has little to do with how well those prospects will ultimately perform in the NFL. They are "right" if they match the teams or range of draft with the prospect.
The ranking/tape/scout expert is much more interested in how those prospects perform in the NFL, draft position/stock be damned. There is nothing right or wrong about either group, as long as they are easily identified.
In my experience of following drafts for too long to remember, most folks that start as ranking/tape/scout guys quickly gravitate to mock draft guys. Even if they don't do mock drafts. The reason is simple. It's easier to match team with need, and people remember mock draft success (1st round only, of course) longer than they remember NFL success (multi-year by nature). The secret to being a mock draft guy is to listen to/get NFL team draft rumors and work those into your mock. You're more likely to be correct, regardless of how well those prospects ultimately do in the NFL.
So I prefer to understand which is which, or who is who, when I read draft news. In my experience, lots of guys who started as scout/tape guys are really mock draft guys. Kiper, Mayock, jeremiah, Brugler are all guys that seemed like scout guys at first, but seemed to quickly become mock draft guys. It's really more financially advantageous to try to mock what the NFL is going to do. I don't blame them.
But there are still guys like Josh Norris and Matt Waldman (still holding on Alvin Pearman, Matt) who give a true scout/tape perspective. They're really much more helpful for fantasy football purposes. To tap the breaks on the draft order avalanche.
So someone like Hackenberg is fascinating because his tape/stats are terrible (although I truly think he's much better than that), but his NFL draft rumor love (late first/early second) could be much higher than his scout/tape value (late second/early third). So it will be very interesting to me to see if he suddenly moves up in someone's "ranking" into a late first/early second round prospect. Even more so if he is drafted there. That will show you who is more interested in "mocking the draft" then giving you their true view of NFL potential.
I don't know why Buffalo should even consider a QB. Like you said, Taylor looked pretty good last year, and the Bills need a lot. Even if Lynch is there at 19, that would be a bad pick.So I think the thing with draft twitter having such a negative attitude toward Hack (and maybe you all already figured this out) is that they are afraid of him.
Draft Twitter is basically composed of two groups, tape guys and advanced stat guys. By both measures, especially advance stats, Hackenberg looks terrible. So they not only think he will be bad, but they are counting on it. And if he does decent to good in the NFL, it provides a point of invalidation for their methods. So they NEED him to suck at the NFL level. Otherwise people will say what about Hack when you use this stat, or what about Hack when you give this tape evaluation. What happened?
I appreciate that guys like PFF Neil say that they would be 'unethical' to move him up to hedge their analysis. And I get that. But even if you don't do that, it doesn't make sense to continually tweet and write articles about how much he sucks. You can rank him very low and just respond with your reasoning if someone asks. But to pound your very negative evaluation into everyone's head just seems to be setting yourself up for a worse fall if he's decent.
Anyway, fascinating to see where he goes in the draft and how he does in the league. I'm obviously hoping he proves all these folks wrong.
(Although as a Bills fan, I don't want them taking him at 19. Taylor is pretty good and we have much higher needs)
I like Hack as well, but with Philly going Wentz they won't want to put someone like Hack over his shoulder. Wentz is already questioned because he didn't go against top defenses, then you add a QB like Hack who was projected a top QB before the season started and fell because of accuracy issues.I really hope Hack lands in a great situation.....other than Houston, I'm really not sure where that could be. But I'm pulling for him nontheless. Wouldn't really mind Philly grabbing him late if he slips so far into Saturday.
Hack to ARZ. Would love to see that strong arm in that Arian vertical offense. No pressure to start right away either.I really hope Hack lands in a great situation.....other than Houston, I'm really not sure where that could be. But I'm pulling for him nontheless. Wouldn't really mind Philly grabbing him late if he slips so far into Saturday.
Seem to recall Washington taking a 2nd rookie QB, even though they traded up too. Yes, I know it was because Shanny didn't want Griffin in the first place, but in hindsight it really was a great hedge bet against that top QB failing.Don't want to create a QB contro before camp when you just traded up to get Wentz.
Agree, Hackenberg will be destroyed if they throw him out there this year. Sign Fitz and let him play while Hack learns under Gailey who has already worked miracles with a much lesser talent in Fitzpatrick.The Jets need to face reality, resign Fitz, and develop Hack on the bench for a year. They made great progress last year and they don't have half a season to kill coaching the rook up.
I can't imagine Brandon Marshall is going to be happy camper if they don' bring Fitz back.The Jets need to face reality, resign Fitz, and develop Hack on the bench for a year. They made great progress last year and they don't have half a season to kill coaching the rook up.
Interesting post, but I have a hard time following you here. Why do you think the Gailey offense is better suited for his talents? It seems to me to be an offense of precision throws to his play makers(Marshall/Decker) or short passes out of the backfield with touch. Some of his knocks have been staring down receivers and guys like Marshall/Decker already take a physical beating without LB/S's given a chance to tee-off on them as well. Do you expect a big step forward from Devin Smith? That seems like the only part of this offense that fits for Hackenberg.Now he's in the NFL where he should be in a offense better suited for his talents (Chan Gailey), without a huge scholarship/talent disparity for his team (he wasn't drafted by the Browns, after all).
Well, I view the WRs, if not the offense, as a good fit for him because he is a 'not that accurate but throw it up and trust your WR' kind of QB. See Allen Robinson and throws to Jesse James and then Godwin and others last year. That's what a lot of tape watchers I've read say is a bad thing and inaccurate. However it shows trust in the WR and there a lot of QBs who can't do that well.BoltBacker said:Interesting post, but I have a hard time following you here. Why do you think the Gailey offense is better suited for his talents? It seems to me to be an offense of precision throws to his play makers(Marshall/Decker) or short passes out of the backfield with touch. Some of his knocks have been staring down receivers and guys like Marshall/Decker already take a physical beating without LB/S's given a chance to tee-off on them as well. Do you expect a big step forward from Devin Smith? That seems like the only part of this offense that fits for Hackenberg.
I am honestly not hating on him(the criticism goes overboard imo) but I just think the NYJ are a very poor fit.
Ah, thanks for the response.Well, I view the WRs, if not the offense, as a good fit for him because he is a 'not that accurate but throw it up and trust your WR' kind of QB. See Allen Robinson and throws to Jesse James and then Godwin and others last year. That's what a lot of tape watchers I've read say is a bad thing and inaccurate. However it shows trust in the WR and there a lot of QBs who can't do that well.
But in Marshall and Decker he has tall, strong WRs to throw to. I agree that the offense generally is more precise than throw it up, but I bet Gailey can tweek that a bit.
I could certainly be wrong though.
ESPN Jets reporter Rich Cimini said Christian Hackenberg has looked like a "typical rookie" at OTAs.
That's not a compliment. Cimini said Hackenberg's passes have been "fluttering" and described his footwork as "robotic." During Wednesday's practice session, Hackenberg sailed two consecutive 15-yard passes over the head of his tight end with no defenders in sight. A rookie having a rough day in June isn't anything to lose sleep over but the second-round pick remains a work in progress. "Right now I expect him to look sloppy because he’s seeing a whole boat load of defenses that are coming at him daily, and there’s going to be a growth period," said head coach Todd Bowles. Hackenberg's development will take on greater importance if the Jets fail to re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Source: ESPN.com
Jun 5 - 10:17 AM
ESPN Jets reporter Rich Cimini believes second-round QB Christian Hackenberg might not play until the preseason finale.
Cimini reports Hackenberg is getting "very few practice reps" and looks like he is headed for a "redshirt year." The Jets understandably want to see if sophomore Bryce Petty can earn a roster spot or, better yet, the No. 2 job, but they also need to see what they have in Hackenberg before he inevitably sits out the entire season, especially considering Ryan Fitzpatrick is headed back into free agency next spring. Despite lucking out with Fitzpatrick, the Jets have seriously bungled the quarterback position the last two years.
Source: ESPN
Aug 13 - 10:35 AM
Christian Hackenberg completed 6-of-16 passes for 105 yards with one touchdown and one interception in Saturday's preseason game.
Hackenberg's debut performance showed exactly why he's buried on the team's depth chart. The second-round pick got hot for a stretch with four straight completions on a fourth-quarter touchdown drive but was a non-factor the rest of the night. He threw an ugly interception in his own end zone late in the fourth quarter to set up the Giants' game-winning drive and also took an inexcusable delay of game penalty. It was an uninspiring effort for Hackenberg, who is destined to spend his rookie year glued to the Jets' bench.
Aug 28 - 9:26 AM
Christian Hackenberg completed 11-of-31 passes for 54 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception in Thursday's preseason game.
Even by the standards of a meaningless preseason game populated by second- and third-stringers, it's a stunningly-awful line. Things got so bad Philly Voice's Jimmy Kempski quipped Hackenberg's best throw was a spike. The No. 51 overall pick of the draft — seriously — finishes the preseason 17-of-47 (36.1 percent) for 159 yards (3.38 YPA), one touchdown and two interceptions. The disaster is in no way surprising considering the way Hack regressed at Penn State. The Jets have to be feeling foolish for blowing such a valuable pick. An injury may have to be invented to "redshirt" Hack on I.R. If not, the Jets will be forced to make a roster move with Geno Smith or Bryce Petty.
Sep 1 - 10:11 PM
Christian Hackenberg said he is "more comfortable" heading into his second season.
"Without a doubt, I think there’s a different level of confidence," Hackenberg said. "More comfortable in the situation, more comfortable walking in the building, more comfortable with the guys in the locker room, in the huddle." Hackenberg added he is not focusing on the competition for the starting job but rather the things he "can control." Josh McCown looks like the favorite to start right now, but the safe money is on Hackenberg seeing the field at some point in 2017.
Source: New York Post
May 16 - 9:11 AM
ESPN's Rich Cimini spoke to a scout who was "taken aback" by how many "off-target" passes Christian Hackenberg threw in pregame warmups last season.
That's right. Hackenberg, the 51st overall selection in the 2016 draft, couldn't even throw an accurate pass in warmups last year. Hackenberg didn't see the field at all as a rookie, which was rather astounding given the miserable play of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bryce Petty. The Jets are having an open competition at quarterback this summer but Hackenberg is a long shot to overtake Josh McCown and Petty for the starting job. New York's decision to draft Hackenberg in the second round was one of the worst picks in recent memory.
Source: ESPN.com
May 21 - 8:58 AM