Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Is it too early to use KC next week or should I "save" them?
lol.
lol.
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*Official* 2021 Survivor Pool Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Zow
- Start date
RealReactions
Footballguy
skillz
Footballguy
SF - GB - Car - Buf - NE - KC - Ari
Me too. Cincy has looked good and Jets will have a backup QB going.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Already used the Bungles. Did have KC lined up but last night has me spooked. Torn between a safe Buffalo pick and a risky Seattle pick. Did state at the start that I'm playing as if a big pool so I might just go with the Seahawks
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
SF CLE DEN BUF NE LAR ARI
Was seriously thinking KC, but I'm going to put them on the back burner until they get their act together. CINCI it is.
Their D is also in my waiver wire queue.
Was seriously thinking KC, but I'm going to put them on the back burner until they get their act together. CINCI it is.
Their D is also in my waiver wire queue.
massraider
Footballguy
CIN schedule says this is the week to use them. If you are using Survivor Grid or some such thing, CIN has very little future value.
Geno Smith, man.
If was looking to take a shot, I think I would hold SEA till Russ gets back, and take a chance with ATL or PHI.
Geno Smith, man.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Yeah, having read a bit about how last night went down it's safe to say I'm probably not picking the Seahawks. Probably straight to the Bills
massraider
Footballguy
Cincy in NY is also 2nd road game in a row, and Flacco is probably starting?
I'm no Flacco guy, but better him than a QB named Mike White, which frankly sounds made up
I'm no Flacco guy, but better him than a QB named Mike White, which frankly sounds made up
titusbramble
Footballguy
Car > Cle > Den > Cin > TB > Pit > Ari > Buffalo
Will wait and see if KC can get things together in time for them to play other decent options later in the season, in the absence of any marginal matchups that seem appealing I'll just take the obvious for the second week in a row.
Survive this week and I'm probably looking at Indy week 9
Will wait and see if KC can get things together in time for them to play other decent options later in the season, in the absence of any marginal matchups that seem appealing I'll just take the obvious for the second week in a row.
Survive this week and I'm probably looking at Indy week 9
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Already used Buffalo so my options are Rams or Cinci. Seems like Bengals would be the shark play, especially since they don't have any other obvious gimmes ROS (with the possible exception of @ Denver in Week 15 if the Broncos have totally imploded by then). Meanwhile, Rams have Jags at home in Week 12.
And yet ... this is still the Bengals we're talking about. Coming off a huge win and they've spent the entire week smelling their own farts. Also, they have the Browns the following week so this could totally be a trap game.
All that said, I'll still probably pick Cinci.
And yet ... this is still the Bengals we're talking about. Coming off a huge win and they've spent the entire week smelling their own farts. Also, they have the Browns the following week so this could totally be a trap game.
All that said, I'll still probably pick Cinci.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Best Bets per Survivor Grid:
LAR @ HOU - EV 1.21 - WP 87.4% - PP 9.7% - FBGGP +12 - Would like to hold for W13 vs JAX -14
BUF vs MIA - EV 1.17 - WP 86.8% - PP 15.3% - FBGGP +13 - I already used them
CIN @ NYJ - EV 0.93 - WP 80.7% - PP 44.4% - FBGGP +8 - Next best other spot to use them is W12 vs PIT at only -3.5 but may still be an option in a tough week if you've already used TB and DAL. They already beat PIT at PIT by two TD's, not sure why that number is only -3.5 at home.
KC vs NYG - EV 1.01 - WP 78.2% - PP 19.9% - FBGGP +8 - A few -7 games later, maybe they'll be more consistent by then - Mahomes status? - Trap Alerts Below
ARI vs GB - EV 1.01 - WP 71.1% - PP 0.3% - FBGGP +7 - I already used them
TB @ NO - EV 0.97 - WP 68.6% - PP 0.4% - FBGGP +6 - I already used them
LAC vs NE - EV 0.94 - WP 67.7% - PP 2.4% - FBGGP +4.5 - Play NYG W14 & @HOU W16
I think it comes down to future opportunity cost. If I take CIN here, I have to save DAL for W12 and can't use them W9. I was planning on using MIA vs HOU there but they've been a dumpster fire and I don't have much faith in them especially after Tyrod is back for HOU. Other options in W9 are BAL vs MIN, PIT vs CHI (but want to hold them for W10 vs DET), NO vs ATL.
Using LAR here puts W13 in a little more doubt with using KC vs DEN (-7) instead of (-14) but hopefully they're righted the ship a little more by then. And it give me more flexibility for tough decisions in earlier weeks W9 and W12. They are also pretty +EV with the majority being on CIN this week.
I think I'm going LAR.
Potential Future Picks:
(Already used: TB, CLE, DEN, BUF, NE, DEN, IND, LAR)
Week 9: DAL -7.5 v DEN
Week 10: PIT -9.5 v DET
Week 11: TEN -11.5 v HOU
Week 12: CIN -3.5 v PIT (Line seems light with CIN beating PIT by 2 TD's in PIT already)
Week 13: KC -7 v DEN
Week 14: GB -9.5 v CHI
Week 15: MIA -7 v NYJ
Week 16: LAC -9.5 @ HOU
Week 17: SF -11.5 v HOU
Week 18: MIN -6.5 v CHI
LAR @ HOU - EV 1.21 - WP 87.4% - PP 9.7% - FBGGP +12 - Would like to hold for W13 vs JAX -14
BUF vs MIA - EV 1.17 - WP 86.8% - PP 15.3% - FBGGP +13 - I already used them
CIN @ NYJ - EV 0.93 - WP 80.7% - PP 44.4% - FBGGP +8 - Next best other spot to use them is W12 vs PIT at only -3.5 but may still be an option in a tough week if you've already used TB and DAL. They already beat PIT at PIT by two TD's, not sure why that number is only -3.5 at home.
KC vs NYG - EV 1.01 - WP 78.2% - PP 19.9% - FBGGP +8 - A few -7 games later, maybe they'll be more consistent by then - Mahomes status? - Trap Alerts Below
ARI vs GB - EV 1.01 - WP 71.1% - PP 0.3% - FBGGP +7 - I already used them
TB @ NO - EV 0.97 - WP 68.6% - PP 0.4% - FBGGP +6 - I already used them
LAC vs NE - EV 0.94 - WP 67.7% - PP 2.4% - FBGGP +4.5 - Play NYG W14 & @HOU W16
I think it comes down to future opportunity cost. If I take CIN here, I have to save DAL for W12 and can't use them W9. I was planning on using MIA vs HOU there but they've been a dumpster fire and I don't have much faith in them especially after Tyrod is back for HOU. Other options in W9 are BAL vs MIN, PIT vs CHI (but want to hold them for W10 vs DET), NO vs ATL.
Using LAR here puts W13 in a little more doubt with using KC vs DEN (-7) instead of (-14) but hopefully they're righted the ship a little more by then. And it give me more flexibility for tough decisions in earlier weeks W9 and W12. They are also pretty +EV with the majority being on CIN this week.
I think I'm going LAR.
Potential Future Picks:
(Already used: TB, CLE, DEN, BUF, NE, DEN, IND, LAR)
Week 9: DAL -7.5 v DEN
Week 10: PIT -9.5 v DET
Week 11: TEN -11.5 v HOU
Week 12: CIN -3.5 v PIT (Line seems light with CIN beating PIT by 2 TD's in PIT already)
Week 13: KC -7 v DEN
Week 14: GB -9.5 v CHI
Week 15: MIA -7 v NYJ
Week 16: LAC -9.5 @ HOU
Week 17: SF -11.5 v HOU
Week 18: MIN -6.5 v CHI
RealReactions
Footballguy
Going Cinci vs some guy named mike white. Wanted to take Seattle but Geno led Seahawks I'm not so comfortable with. I'll wait till Wilson is healthy and they are in must win mode for every game later on.
LAR->GB->Car->Buf->NE->KC->Zona-> Cinci
LAR->GB->Car->Buf->NE->KC->Zona-> Cinci
Hurl Bruce
Footballguy
I really want to use KC this weekend. It makes the rest of the season so much easier to line up. I can't imagine Mahomes having 2 weeks like that in a row.
SFO>GBP>CAR>CIN>NEP>IND>ARI>. KC?
SFO>GBP>CAR>CIN>NEP>IND>ARI>. KC?
Last edited by a moderator:
massraider
Footballguy
Week 8 Early Most Popular Teams Summary
This is an early quick summary of the most popular picks so far in Week 8.
Cincinnati Bengals (40%) at New York Jets
Kansas City Chiefs (21%) vs. New York Giants
Buffalo Bills (15%) vs. Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Rams (11%) at Houston Texans
Seattle Seahawks (5%) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Currently, no other teams have more than 3% pick popularity.
Let’s quickly go through each of these teams.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are a 10-point favorite against the Jets based on both teams’ performances last week combined with Jets QB Zach Wilson’s injury. The Jets just traded for veteran Joe Flacco, though Mike White, who threw his first career regular-season pass last week, will likely get his first start in Week 8.
The Bengals do have high popularity at 41 percent right now. That is bringing their EV down (0.96) in a week where the Bills and Rams are even bigger favorites.
With that said, they do have the lowest future value, which is why they are more popular. Cincinnati’s schedule gets tougher after this week.
Our recommendations were also heavier on Cincinnati back in Week 4 against Jacksonville. Prior usage may play a role here depending on the pool type.
Kansas City Chiefs
With yet another poor effort, the Chiefs’ power rating has dropped, and their future value continues to plummet. They are now outside our top 10 in future value for the rest of the season.
The Chiefs’ highest projected win-odds game is this week against the Giants, where they’re favored by 10 points. We do not project them with greater than 70 percent win odds for the rest of the year.
Since the Chiefs have higher EV than Cincinnati and half the popularity, you can make a case for using them while saving future value with the Bills and Rams.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have a strong EV (1.12) given their high win odds and lower popularity compared to the Bengals and Chiefs. That makes them a reasonable choice this week.
With that said, the Bills also have the highest future value of any team. If you have other reasonable alternatives, using one of them could allow you to save Buffalo for an even higher-value week.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are the biggest favorite of the week and are less popular than the other three choices. That gives them an EV of 1.16, which is the highest EV of any team (using average public pick popularity data) so far this season.
Based on that, the Rams are a strong pick this week. However, you do still have to account for future value, where the Rams rank third, behind only Buffalo and Tampa Bay.
Most of the Rams’ future value is tied up in Week 13, where they host the Jaguars in a week where there are otherwise limited options right now. So the Rams’ value is better in smaller pools that are more likely to be done by Week 13 or have only a few entries left.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are a poor value pick this week in Survivor pools, with an EV of 0.75. They are favored by only three points against the Jaguars.
They would have been in contention as a survivor pick this week with Russell Wilson at QB. But he’s still hurt, so Geno Smith remains under center.
This popularity number may go down a bit. But even if it does, the Seahawks are too risky this week. They also have some good future value late in the season when Wilson could return.
This is an early quick summary of the most popular picks so far in Week 8.
Cincinnati Bengals (40%) at New York Jets
Kansas City Chiefs (21%) vs. New York Giants
Buffalo Bills (15%) vs. Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Rams (11%) at Houston Texans
Seattle Seahawks (5%) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Currently, no other teams have more than 3% pick popularity.
Let’s quickly go through each of these teams.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are a 10-point favorite against the Jets based on both teams’ performances last week combined with Jets QB Zach Wilson’s injury. The Jets just traded for veteran Joe Flacco, though Mike White, who threw his first career regular-season pass last week, will likely get his first start in Week 8.
The Bengals do have high popularity at 41 percent right now. That is bringing their EV down (0.96) in a week where the Bills and Rams are even bigger favorites.
With that said, they do have the lowest future value, which is why they are more popular. Cincinnati’s schedule gets tougher after this week.
Our recommendations were also heavier on Cincinnati back in Week 4 against Jacksonville. Prior usage may play a role here depending on the pool type.
Kansas City Chiefs
With yet another poor effort, the Chiefs’ power rating has dropped, and their future value continues to plummet. They are now outside our top 10 in future value for the rest of the season.
The Chiefs’ highest projected win-odds game is this week against the Giants, where they’re favored by 10 points. We do not project them with greater than 70 percent win odds for the rest of the year.
Since the Chiefs have higher EV than Cincinnati and half the popularity, you can make a case for using them while saving future value with the Bills and Rams.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have a strong EV (1.12) given their high win odds and lower popularity compared to the Bengals and Chiefs. That makes them a reasonable choice this week.
With that said, the Bills also have the highest future value of any team. If you have other reasonable alternatives, using one of them could allow you to save Buffalo for an even higher-value week.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are the biggest favorite of the week and are less popular than the other three choices. That gives them an EV of 1.16, which is the highest EV of any team (using average public pick popularity data) so far this season.
Based on that, the Rams are a strong pick this week. However, you do still have to account for future value, where the Rams rank third, behind only Buffalo and Tampa Bay.
Most of the Rams’ future value is tied up in Week 13, where they host the Jaguars in a week where there are otherwise limited options right now. So the Rams’ value is better in smaller pools that are more likely to be done by Week 13 or have only a few entries left.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are a poor value pick this week in Survivor pools, with an EV of 0.75. They are favored by only three points against the Jaguars.
They would have been in contention as a survivor pick this week with Russell Wilson at QB. But he’s still hurt, so Geno Smith remains under center.
This popularity number may go down a bit. But even if it does, the Seahawks are too risky this week. They also have some good future value late in the season when Wilson could return.
massraider
Footballguy
We are due for a cullling
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Rolling with Cincy this week. We all see the potential for a let-down game after they thumped the Ravens, but the Jets are a mess and should provide a comfortable safety net if the Bengals come out flat for some reason.
I'm sure there's data on this, but anecdotally it feels like the NFL is much more lopsided this year than in season's past. We're seeing 14+ point spreads practically every week it seems like, and last week was pretty much nothing but blowouts. This feels like a year where the bubble doesn't pop for quite a while.
I'm sure there's data on this, but anecdotally it feels like the NFL is much more lopsided this year than in season's past. We're seeing 14+ point spreads practically every week it seems like, and last week was pretty much nothing but blowouts. This feels like a year where the bubble doesn't pop for quite a while.
massraider
Footballguy
KC doesn't have a ton of future value either.
CIN seems like a lock, hard to imagine Jets getting it done with Mike White
CIN seems like a lock, hard to imagine Jets getting it done with Mike White
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Wingnut
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
titusbramble
Footballguy
Bills keep me safe for now, but next week looks ugly given who I've used. Probably Baltimore coming off the bye or Dallas assuming Dak is back
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I can't believe the team I picked lost to the director of White Lotus a backup Jets quarterback!
So happy I switched Rams to Bengals. And I knew better too.
Something obvious that should help those still alive. The NFL is the king of the letdown game scenario. The Bengals basically validated their existence last week by killing the Ravens. This was a monster letdown spot. Therefore, DO NOT play the Saints at home vs. the Falcons next week. Good luck!
Something obvious that should help those still alive. The NFL is the king of the letdown game scenario. The Bengals basically validated their existence last week by killing the Ravens. This was a monster letdown spot. Therefore, DO NOT play the Saints at home vs. the Falcons next week. Good luck!
RealReactions
Footballguy
Still in utter disbelief they lost to a backup named Mike White.1st jets qb to throw 400 yards since 2000. ( Vinny Testaverde) 54% took Cinci in my league that started with over 1,000 entries. Checking now its down to just shy of 200. Good luck to you all that are still in it.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Car > Cle > Den > Cin > TB > Pit > Ari > Buf > Dallas
Not going to try to overthink this. Colts were going to be my pick but combination of Wentz being lol and the Jets having a pulse worries me on a short week, so going to take the other 10 point spread available to me. Colts have immediate future value next week in any case. Still not convinced the Chefs are quite right regardless of whatever cluster is going on in Green Bay, can't bring myself to pick Miami, Baltimore seems like a trap line.
Not going to try to overthink this. Colts were going to be my pick but combination of Wentz being lol and the Jets having a pulse worries me on a short week, so going to take the other 10 point spread available to me. Colts have immediate future value next week in any case. Still not convinced the Chefs are quite right regardless of whatever cluster is going on in Green Bay, can't bring myself to pick Miami, Baltimore seems like a trap line.
I'm not quite sure that's a fair comparison. Seems NO has owned TB since Brady has been there.
Hurl Bruce
Footballguy
A lot of teams in my league are out from the Bengals loss. We're down to 28 out of 100.
I think I have to roll with the Rams vs Tennessee this week.
SFO>GBP>CAR>CIN>NEP>IND>ARI>KCC>LAR
I think I have to roll with the Rams vs Tennessee this week.
SFO>GBP>CAR>CIN>NEP>IND>ARI>KCC>LAR
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I too got Bungled, but it's a double elimination pool so I'm still alive.
Leaning Colts as of now. I don't see the Jets doing this two weeks in a row. But there is the argument that it's better to save them until next week, so maybe Dallas instead.
Leaning Colts as of now. I don't see the Jets doing this two weeks in a row. But there is the argument that it's better to save them until next week, so maybe Dallas instead.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Used TB, CLE, DEN, BUF, NE, IND, ARI, LAR so far.
I'd love to save the Cowboys for a tough week 12, especially after CIN lost to the Jets but I can't bring myself to trust any of the other matchups and will kick the can down the road until then. Vegas has them as 10 point favorites and FBG GP has them winning by 11. Sounds like Dak will be back to give the team a boost and DEN was getting by with defense but just traded Von Miller.
KC vs GB - Chiefs struggled again vs NYG and GB will be without Rodgers but Love to me is an unknown I don't want to deal with.
PIT vs CHI - I just don't trust either team to be consistently good or bad.
MIA vs HOU - HOU has been close a couple times and MIA has been unpredictable, it this the week the get a win with TT back?
BAL vs MIN - I'm having trouble envisioning how this game will play out.
NO vs ATL - Taysom Hill? Trevor Simian? No Calvin Ridley. Can NO defend Pitts? Staying away.
I'd love to save the Cowboys for a tough week 12, especially after CIN lost to the Jets but I can't bring myself to trust any of the other matchups and will kick the can down the road until then. Vegas has them as 10 point favorites and FBG GP has them winning by 11. Sounds like Dak will be back to give the team a boost and DEN was getting by with defense but just traded Von Miller.
KC vs GB - Chiefs struggled again vs NYG and GB will be without Rodgers but Love to me is an unknown I don't want to deal with.
PIT vs CHI - I just don't trust either team to be consistently good or bad.
MIA vs HOU - HOU has been close a couple times and MIA has been unpredictable, it this the week the get a win with TT back?
BAL vs MIN - I'm having trouble envisioning how this game will play out.
NO vs ATL - Taysom Hill? Trevor Simian? No Calvin Ridley. Can NO defend Pitts? Staying away.
Zow
Footballguy
So far I've used: Car-Cle-Den-Buf-Min-Indy-AZ-KC (in two pools but haven't deviated).
Presently torn between Dallas and Miami. Since I'm now considering myself "in the runnin" (Cinci lost last week now have over 75% eliminated in both pools), I'm trying to strategize for the rest of the year. If we get to week 15, I really like Dallas at NYG as I assume Dallas will be shooting for a possible top seed/playoff spot and NYG will be out of it. Looking at my options I think my next best choice that week would be TB.
I had pegged Miami for this week for awhile. I am admittedly nervous though given how bad Miami has looked.
Presently torn between Dallas and Miami. Since I'm now considering myself "in the runnin" (Cinci lost last week now have over 75% eliminated in both pools), I'm trying to strategize for the rest of the year. If we get to week 15, I really like Dallas at NYG as I assume Dallas will be shooting for a possible top seed/playoff spot and NYG will be out of it. Looking at my options I think my next best choice that week would be TB.
I had pegged Miami for this week for awhile. I am admittedly nervous though given how bad Miami has looked.
massraider
Footballguy
My big pool is going the distance, and double picks starting week 12.
I've got to take some chances at some point, I keep a lot more options open if I can use MIA here.
If Tua plays, that's my move. Three entries in, and I might use them in two of three.
I've got to take some chances at some point, I keep a lot more options open if I can use MIA here.
If Tua plays, that's my move. Three entries in, and I might use them in two of three.
massraider
Footballguy
This damn NFC East is gonna decide a lot of pools
titusbramble
Footballguy
Well this was a fun thread while it lasted
massraider
Footballguy
Yeah Dolphins!!!
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I'm out. Thanks Buffalo. GL to all that are still alive.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Well, it's been a nice run, gents. I was cruising along in my double-eliminate pool until the past two weeks: Cinci and now Dallas. The process was right on both calls. Nothing you can do except shake your head.
Good luck to everyone still in it. Bring it home!
Good luck to everyone still in it. Bring it home!
Lehigh98
Footballguy
I think my thought process was pretty much right but my main error was expecting players (Dak and Tyrod) to be good right off the bat in their first game back from injury. I have to remember to keep a mental flag against that in the future. Should have stayed on my originally planned Dolphins pick. Good luck to whoever is still going.
robb
Footballguy
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