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***Official 2020 Election General*** (2 Viewers)

whoknew said:
I know 538 has lost a lot of luster tonight, but from one of their analysts - 

"Yeah, but Nevada is a state where mail-in ballots only had to be postmarked by Tuesday. So I’d expect a not-insignificant blue shift over the next week or so."
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Thanks for the information.

Digression: I'm not here to bash 538, but you'd have to figure this board will be a lot more skeptical next time of polls and poll aggregators. Even as a Biden/Harris supporter, I was dismayed by this board's response in trusting polls when last time showed exactly what could happen. Trump is down 1.5% in the popular vote. He was running eight points behind in most polls. The confidence of this board in polls and the jeering directed at Trump supporters who said to ignore polls and that it would be close was ridiculous.

 
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I'm looking at CNN and not seeing how the math breaks for Biden, either. Looks like he's gonna have to make up 200,000 votes in Detroit.

Disclaimer: This is just me looking at some maps. I am not an election junkie. I am a novice.

 
I'd even say that the people who were jeering at others that "you don't know how polls work, then" oughta offer retractions, apologies, and mea culpas. Seems like the people so heavily invested in those accusations are the ones that don't know how they work very well.

 
-fish- said:
Nevada going red could result in a tie
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213 + AK (3) = 216 called or safe

+ NV (6) + NC (15) + PA (20) + WI (10) + ME district 2 (1)

268

227 called

+AZ (11) + GA (16) + MI (16)

270

SORRY....I'm tired bro. How do we get to 269-269?

 
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rockaction said:
I'm looking at CNN and not seeing how the math breaks for Biden, either. Looks like he's gonna have to make up 200,000 votes in Detroit.

Disclaimer: This is just me looking at some maps. I am not an election junkie. I am a novice.
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Basically, Biden needs to win the Detroit mail-in ballots by a ratio of approximately 70% - 30%.

 
Joe Summer said:
Basically, Biden needs to win the Detroit mail-in ballots by a ratio of approximately 70% - 30%.
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that's historically true

last 3:

Obama 73% with 890K turnout 

Obama 74% with 815K turnout

HRC 67% with 777K turnout

we are being told the Wayne Country turnout was huge. dunno if true.

 
Joe Summer said:
Basically, Biden needs to win the Detroit mail-in ballots by a ratio of approximately 70% - 30%.
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Considering Detroit was 60-40 Biden, that sounds difficult. Of course, I'm not adjusting for the walk-in vs. mail-in vote and how that discrepancy will work.

 
rockaction said:
Considering Detroit was 60-40 Biden, that sounds difficult. Of course, I'm not adjusting for the walk-in vs. mail-in vote and how that discrepancy will work.
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nope

the early precincts are the affluent parts of Wayne - the Grosse Pointes, Palmer Woods, Boston Edison. They always there votes counted first.typically 55-60% D.

then the inner city precincts report late. typically 80-90% D.

every. four. years.

 
for instance, at 11pm on November 8, 2016, HRC was at 54% for Wayne County. I was standing in Times Square. I knew right then it was over. Has to be over 60% early.

plus lower turnout for HRC.

higher for Joe.

 
rockaction said:
I'd even say that the people who were jeering at others that "you don't know how polls work, then" oughta offer retractions, apologies, and mea culpas. Seems like the people so heavily invested in those accusations are the ones that don't know how they work very well.
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I think we will need to let all the dust settle with final numbers, but when I look at 538's road map, they have it almost exactly right, especially if PA breaks for Biden (which we have no idea where they are now and it will be days until we do).

Florida, GA, and NC were barely blue and easily fell within the margin of error. The rest look like they will fall as predicted even if closer than expected (assuming NV, MI, and WI go for Biden). Right now, it looks like Wisconsin may be the biggest "miss" if it doesn't. 

Even FL seems like some huge anomaly due to one county (Dade) from what I can see. That's always going to be difficult to pick up.

I'm not saying the 538 is perfect and maybe I'm missing something, but in the end, it looks like they are getting it mostly right again.

 
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I don't know very many districts / precincts well. I learn as I go along with everyone else.

but for Detroit Lions FF or Wayne County micropolitics, one of the few things in life I mastered.

along with how to make JudgeSmalls chilli.

 
rockaction said:
I'd even say that the people who were jeering at others that "you don't know how polls work, then" oughta offer retractions, apologies, and mea culpas. Seems like the people so heavily invested in those accusations are the ones that don't know how they work very well.
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lemme git my pitchfork

who we roasting anyway?

 
BobbyLayne said:
nope

the early precincts are the affluent parts of Wayne - the Grosse Pointes, Palmer Woods, Boston Edison. They always there votes counted first.typically 55-60% D.

then the inner city precincts report late. typically 80-90% D.

every. four. years.
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Gotcha.  That makes more sense bc wayne is a lot tighter at the moment than biden needs it to be.  

 
So, if I have this right, at this point, Biden needs 3 of the following: NV, MI, WI, PA, GA.

Technically NC on the list, but that's not likely. The other 5 certainly seem reasonably in play, right?

Also he wins with PA + one of NV/MI/GA.

 
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From Nate Silver:  So, what's left in Nevada is mail and provisionals. No more in-person votes. That's likely good news for Democrats, unless the late-arriving mail ballots were MUCH redder than the early-arriving ones.

 
I see FB folk up in arms about PA not rejecting ballots based on signature mismatches.

I wish every state would do that. I'm one of those people that literally can't match my own signature. Plus it seems silly to make a bunch of volunteer poll workers try to be forensic handwriting experts. 

Signatures seem pretty outdated in 2020. 

 
gianmarco said:
So, if I have this right, at this point, Biden needs 3 of the following: NV, MI, WI, PA, GA.

Technically NC on the list, but that's not likely. The other 5 certainly seem reasonably in play, right?
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officially 227-213 but AK (3) is safe

that doesn't include AZ (11) which some have called

so 238-216

NV (6) looks to be breaking for Trump (222)

GA (16) we won't know until afternoon or more likely evening, but should break for Biden (254)

NC (15) looks like it will stay with Trump (237)

that leaves the three upper midwest states

MI (16) PA (20) WI (10) - without NV Biden can't get there with just WI, has to win one of MI or PA

Trump needs all MI + PA right? 237 + 36 to get to 273

He could win MI + WI but lose PA - only 263, Biden will have 274 with PA, who cares about the last (1) from ME district 2

 
BobbyLayne said:
I don't know very many districts / precincts well. I learn as I go along with everyone else.

but for Detroit Lions FF or Wayne County micropolitics, one of the few things in life I mastered.

along with how to make JudgeSmalls chilli.
Click to expand...
Do you get a free bowl when you buy a hat?

 
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Just waking up and trying to figure this mess out.  Could someone simply give me who is favored to win right now and why?   Thanks 

 
pantherclub said:
Favored based on?   Sorry I am not super in tune with this
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I’ll do a recap soon getting breakfast.

Or scroll up to my color coded posts to see the math.

real quick:

8 states not called

227 Biden Trump 213 CALLED

AK (3) safe Trump

AZ (11) some have called for Biden

NV (6) breaking for Trump but less than 10K

GA (16) Trump up 102K but 250K votes left in two counties Biden is winning 74-83%.

NC (15) probably Trump 

PA (20) bigly Trump but a lotta counting left

MI (16) breaking for Biden as Wayne County gets counted but currently Trump

WI (10) razor thin Biden margin & lots of counting 

plus ME district 2 (1) but who cares - Trump leading

 
pantherclub said:
Just waking up and trying to figure this mess out.  Could someone simply give me who is favored to win right now and why?   Thanks 
Click to expand...
Trump favored between 2 to1 and 3 to1 in vegas 

edit: Biden slight favorite... aggregator hadn’t updated overnight - my bad :thumb up:

 
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