***Official*** 2016 Dynasty Value Assessment Thread (1 Viewer)

[barackdhouse]

I suppose I understand marking Reed down a bit due to his injury risk (a nebulous and difficult idea to quantify), but in TE premium leagues I have him marked as having scored just ~6 points less than Gronk last year.  Does he belong in the same tier as Gronk?  If Reed is an injury risk, isn't Gronk as well?  For different reasons perhaps.  Seems to me if I owned Reed in a TE premium it would take a mountain of an offer to get him from me.  Just like Gronk.  At the very least I would put Reed in a tier above Kelce and Eifert.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Thoughts on the value of Zach Ertz?

His last quarter of the season was 35 receptions on 46 targets for 450 yards. Granted that production is not sustainable and the offense will be different this year and the history of Pederson at KCC is good but not overabundant use of TE. I think he benefits some from Matthews moving outside and from getting rid of Murray, not to mentio Bradford staying. Overall I think his 2015 has been downgraded by low TD production which I view as more of an outlier and by having most of his production come during playoffs. 75/853 is as good as any season Olsen had before 2014, for example. He has a good combination of high floor and still some upside. I don't think ASJ or Ebron have the same floor. I would draft him above Olsen at TE5 and favor him over WR in that area of startups (Carroo, Agholor, Crabtree). Taking him over RB in that area is more a question of strategy. My strategy at TE would be to buy low on Ertz and buy high on Ladarius. Given cost, I would rather have those 2 than Eifert and Kelce.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

So what do you peg the value of this tier at?

In ppr scoring but non TE premium I'd probably pay up to 1.05/1.06 - admittedly may get cold feet on Reed due to his concussion history, but he's so dominant. Eifert could arguably be worth more in this uninspriring draft class.

 

[Biabreakable]

So what do you peg the value of this tier at?

Here is the march dynasty ADP from thriftyrockers mocks.  

Tight Ends

10. Gronkowski, Rob TE1 10.00 1.85 [8,12]

46. Eifert, Tyler TE2 50.25 8.10 [43,68]
50. Reed, Jordan TE3 52.75 6.21 [40,63]

60. Kelce, Travis TE4 57.00 2.15 [46,66]

79. Olsen, Greg TE5 80.50 10.81 [70,89]

89. Ebron, Eric TE6 87.50 -7.88 [62,113]
90. Ertz, Zach TE7 89.00 9.54 [79,100]

97. Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TE8 94.00 4.62 [85,105]
101. Green, Ladarius TE9 102.75 -30.02 [94,123]
107. Walker, Delanie TE10 110.00 -3.54 [90,125]
112. Thomas, Julius TE11 117.50 2.11 [98,146]
115. Walford, Clive TE12 120.75 -12.25 [108,133]
119. Fleener, Coby TE13 124.25 -88.29 [100,161]

130. Allen, Dwayne TE14 135.75 -56.25 [116,170]
135. Bennett, Martellus TE15 140.75 -12.56 [121,157]
139. Williams, Maxx TE16 144.00 0.54 [125,173]
142. Graham, Jimmy TE17 144.50 17.50 [114,184]
143. Barnidge, Gary TE18 145.50 10.50 [132,153]

163. Henry, Hunter TE19 R24 166.50 4.19 [164,169]

190. Tye, Will TE20 191.50 14.04 [174,202]
198. Gates, Antonio TE21 200.75 -20.02 [145,218]
205. Hooper, Austin TE22 R38 206.00 -20.38 [163,227]
208. Rodgers, Richard TE23 207.75 27.52 [183,225]
213. Watson, Ben TE24 212.50 -13.42 [158,210]

230. McDonald, Vance TE25 223.75 0.21 [176,237]
232. Miller, Zach TE26 224.50 -4.65 [196,220]
234. Pruitt, MyCole TE27 225.00 -9.38 [207,211]
237. Vannett, Nick TE28 R43 226.50 -8.73 [183,183]
242. Cameron, Jordan TE29 228.25 18.33 [190,190]
244. James, Jesse TE30 228.75 6.29 [192,192]

254. Gillmore, Crockett TE31 232.25 6.48 [206,206]

261. Amaro, Jace TE32 233.75 19.52 [212,212]
264. Rudolph, Kyle TE33 234.25 19.25 [217,238]
268. Witten, Jason TE34 236.00 6.00 [221,221]
270. Clay, Charles TE35 236.50 28.50 [223,223]
275. Bell, Blake TE36 238.00 -0.62 [229,229]

289. Miller, Heath TE37 240.00 [237,237]
292. Adams, Jerell TE38 R50 240.50 [239,239]

I broke them into tiers based on if there was a separation of 10 or more picks.

I am a bit surprised to see MyCole Pruitt being drafted higher than Kyle Rudolph. Jordan Cameron seems really low but perhaps I haven't been paying much attention to him and his health. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I suppose I understand marking Reed down a bit due to his injury risk (a nebulous and difficult idea to quantify), but in TE premium leagues I have him marked as having scored just ~6 points less than Gronk last year.  Does he belong in the same tier as Gronk?  If Reed is an injury risk, isn't Gronk as well?  For different reasons perhaps.  Seems to me if I owned Reed in a TE premium it would take a mountain of an offer to get him from me.  Just like Gronk.  At the very least I would put Reed in a tier above Kelce and Eifert.

I'm one who argues against the "injury prone" label so my concerns with Reed wouldn't be with him getting banged over the course of the season, but rather with his concussion history. Any big hit could potentially end his career as he's suffered quite a few already and a recent one was very bad.

 

[steelers1080]

I can tell you that Ebron and Austin Stefarian-Jenkins will have horrible years.  This is based purely on the fact that I own both of them.

Also, if Fleener becomes the #2 target for Brees, does his value go up?

 

[Pwingles]

I can tell you that Ebron and Austin Stefarian-Jenkins will have horrible years.  This is based purely on the fact that I own both of them.

Also, if Fleener becomes the #2 target for Brees, does his value go up?

I dont see how it couldnt go up. I dont have the target distribution data from NO last year, but id be willing to bet that snead/watsons numbers last year were better than Fleeners. If he becomes the legit #2 option, it would be some mix of their targets and numbers as im sure they were the 2 and 3 option

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I can tell you that Ebron and Austin Stefarian-Jenkins will have horrible years.  This is based purely on the fact that I own both of them.

Also, if Fleener becomes the #2 target for Brees, does his value go up?

Of course, in (market) theory it's already gone up. Fleener goes to a team with a TE friendly scheme and QB. Ben Watson at 35 years old had a big season there. With Flenner's athleticism, he has a ton of upside.

 

[steelers1080]

I dont see how it couldnt go up. I dont have the target distribution data from NO last year, but id be willing to bet that snead/watsons numbers last year were better than Fleeners. If he becomes the legit #2 option, it would be some mix of their targets and numbers as im sure they were the 2 and 3 option

Of course, in (market) theory it's already gone up. Fleener goes to a team with a TE friendly scheme and QB. Ben Watson at 35 years old had a big season there. With Flenner's athleticism, he has a ton of upside.

I was thinking he could wind up in the top 5 of TEs, is that crazy?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I was thinking he could wind up in the top 5 of TEs, is that crazy?

I don't think so. He's young and has improved each season in Indy. He has some flaws in his game, but is a talented and should thrive in this system.

 

[Pwingles]

Not crazy, the one thing he never had in Indy was volume. I think he will get that in NO. We all proly agree Graham is/was very very good. We all also prolly agree Watson is not that great. Id put Fleener somewhere in between them.  So if the Brees effect has anything to do with it, his numbers floor could be roughly in the area of watsons last year, even if theyre slightly less, thats really solid production for a TE

 

[barackdhouse]

I'm one who argues against the "injury prone" label so my concerns with Reed wouldn't be with him getting banged over the course of the season, but rather with his concussion history. Any big hit could potentially end his career as he's suffered quite a few already and a recent one was very bad.

Yeah that sounds about right.  I don't own him anywhere, but if I did I'd probably be both excited for him and extremely nervous. 

 

[Run It Up]

Not crazy, the one thing he never had in Indy was volume. I think he will get that in NO. We all proly agree Graham is/was very very good. We all also prolly agree Watson is not that great. Id put Fleener somewhere in between them.  So if the Brees effect has anything to do with it, his numbers floor could be roughly in the area of watsons last year, even if theyre slightly less, thats really solid production for a TE

Watson's a complete TE and a capable receiver. But Fleener is probably a better receiver than Ben at this point in their respective careers.

I think closer to Watsons production last year than Grahams before he got hurt in NO is more likely.

 

[Deadpan]

What is Demarco Murray's value?  He's only 27 now.  

 

[jeaton6]

What is Demarco Murray's value?  He's only 27 now.  

He went for future 2017 2 in one league. I've been trying to shop him to RB needy teams for a future 1 and no counters. 

 

[Deadpan]

At that price I'd just ride off into the sunset with him. 

 

[bostonfred]

What is Demarco Murray's value?  He's only 27 now.  

He's 28 (born February 1988), and on a new team that has 18 wins over their last four seasons.  Last year he signed a big contract for a new team than played badly enough to lose the starting job, get his offensive genius coach fired, and got  himself traded out of town as quickly as possible.  He was considered injury prone before his heavy workload season in Dallas and was criticized for ducking out of bounds to avoid hits last year after he got his big pay day.

So you get that - at age 28 - for a team that's unlikely to win a lot of games - which means he won't get as much work and he won't be as motivated.  That's not worth a future first to me.   

There's upside - he had a monster season in Dallas two years ago and very good ypc before that, and the titans have some of line talent and might use 1.1 on more.   They also could run the ball a ton to protect mariotta, and he's their most veteran pass catcher.   And they'll have no qualms giving him touches - he's a stop gap and they don't have much else around him.   But is anyone really bullish on Murray?  

There's also a glut of rbs 28 and older.   I would price check a lot of them before ever paying a first for Murray.  

 

[Borden]

What is Demarco Murray's value?  He's only 27 now.  

He was my most recent pick in a start up at 7.12 but I think there is a void between what his perceived value is and what his actual value is. With the Titans he likely has a 2-3 year window of being a workhorse back. And if draft Tunsil then he should be behind a better OL then in Philly. I would think that based on this he should produce at a RB1 level. But because of his age and last years numbers he's going to get knocked down in value. 

He's definitely a "buy now" guy. Once the redraft season gets going he's going to up in price as people start forgetting last year and he gets hyped. There's so few bell cow backs that I'm guessing he gets around the top 5 in redraft RB rankings. Right now people are thinking long term/youth. People aren't thinking that they are only one player away from the championship. But they will be when they start hearing how amazing their players are in preseason or when their flyer players get talked up as potential sleepers and break out candidates. 

His value all depends on how you see your team. Anything other than a complete rebuild, I think Murray is worth the 1.04. 

 

[Deadpan]

He was my most recent pick in a start up at 7.12 but I think there is a void between what his perceived value is and what his actual value is. With the Titans he likely has a 2-3 year window of being a workhorse back. And if draft Tunsil then he should be behind a better OL then in Philly. I would think that based on this he should produce at a RB1 level. But because of his age and last years numbers he's going to get knocked down in value. 

He's definitely a "buy now" guy. Once the redraft season gets going he's going to up in price as people start forgetting last year and he gets hyped. There's so few bell cow backs that I'm guessing he gets around the top 5 in redraft RB rankings. Right now people are thinking long term/youth. People aren't thinking that they are only one player away from the championship. But they will be when they start hearing how amazing their players are in preseason or when their flyer players get talked up as potential sleepers and break out candidates. 

His value all depends on how you see your team. Anything other than a complete rebuild, I think Murray is worth the 1.04. 

Great point about thinking youth right now.  Edelman is another one whose value is in the tank right now.  But it won't be come late August.  Might be a great time to buy on guys like Murray.  

 

[FUBAR]

His value all depends on how you see your team. Anything other than a complete rebuild, I think Murray is worth the 1.04. 

objectively you're probably right but there is very little chance of getting 1.04 for him in most leagues, especially right now.  Even as a contender I'd probably give Murray for Doctson/Treadwell/Zeke/Henry.  Maybe not Henry for a contender but for a non-contender Henry will be worth a lot more.

 

[bostonfred]

I guess that answers my question about whether anyone is really bullish on Murray.   1.4 and top 5 redraft rb were not things I expected to hear.  I do agree that his redraft ranking is important.  Here's a list I expect to go ahead of him in redraft.

Gurley

Peterson

Charles

L bell

D Johnson

Freeman 

L miller

Ingram 

Martin

Rawls

Lacy

Forte

Cj Anderson

L Murray

I can see him leap frogging a few of those with some positive press or if someone like Seattle or Oakland drafts a back early, but I can also see him dropping some if Henry goes to Dallas and has an impressive preseason.  

That's 15 guys, with mccoy, Langford, dion Lewis and some other good guys still on the board before Murray comes off.  And that assumes that the news on murray is mostly positive.   What happens if there are reports that Antonio or Cobb or somebody looks good?  Or that Murray isn't impressing coaches with his work ethic?   

If you really want to spend 1.4 to get him,  draft a player at 1.4, wait until week 2, and trade the rookie for him once you at least see him in action.  It's not like he can go up much in price from there.   

 

[Run It Up]

Thoughts on Stafford at this point in his career? Just acquired him for peanuts, but I feel like they sold low obviously.

For those who didn't know, Stafford was the first QB in history to complete 60%+ in every game last year. Basically played without Megatron last year, finished with 4.3k yards and a 1.5:1 TD:Int ratio - which seems to be his floor. That aint bad.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

 His value all depends on how you see your team. Anything other than a complete rebuild, I think Murray is worth the 1.04. 

I'm usually a guy that argues against "exit value" or "future trade value" at the expense of actual fantasy production - but I see a move like that as very dangerous. I tend to agree with what fred says above about Murray's future potential, if I'm wrong, sobeit, but if I'm right you are paying a premium price for a sinking asset. If Murray struggles this season or is even just an average RB2, you'll get nothing for him this offseason when he turns 29. If the player you take at 1.04 doesn't do much as a rookie he'll still maintain some trade value for a year or two as people think he'll turn it around or "the light will go on".

Sure the player you take at 1.04 could bust but I'd much rather take a chance on Treadwell, Henry, Coleman etc. and strike gold then to hope for solid grinding production from Murray.

With that said at a 7th round start up price, I'd certainly have some interest in him so can't blame you for grabbing him there. 

 

[thriftyrocker]

Thoughts on Stafford at this point in his career? Just acquired him for peanuts, but I feel like they sold low obviously.

For those who didn't know, Stafford was the first QB in history to complete 60%+ in every game last year. Basically played without Megatron last year, finished with 4.3k yards and a 1.5:1 TD:Int ratio - which seems to be his floor. That aint bad.

Bloom is really high on him. Too high, QB5. Cites OC Cooter as a big positive.

I disagree that he "basically played without Megatron last year" because he still drew coverage and moved chains. Marvin Jones is not an even swap.

He is a high floor, long shelf life play, which isn't the most appealing thing but worth acquiring if you don't have a top 4 guy. 

I don't really see him as a "buy low" (someone who will increase in value). His price is attractive and he will outperform his startup adp, but he's not an appreciating asset. He would have to bump up into 5000 yard area to see that.

The "Low QB1" tier goes about 15 players deep right now. There's lots of guys you can get to stream.

 

[Run It Up]

Hard to stream in dynasty, agree with a lot what you said but idk about low qb1 being so deep. It also wouldn't be the first time he's thrown for 5k, he's done it once and almost two other times.

 

[FUBAR]

I guess that answers my question about whether anyone is really bullish on Murray.   1.4 and top 5 redraft rb were not things I expected to hear.  I do agree that his redraft ranking is important.  Here's a list I expect to go ahead of him in redraft.

Gurley

Peterson

Charles

L bell

D Johnson

Freeman 

L miller

Ingram 

Martin

Rawls

Lacy

Forte

Cj Anderson

L Murray

I can see him leap frogging a few of those with some positive press or if someone like Seattle or Oakland drafts a back early, but I can also see him dropping some if Henry goes to Dallas and has an impressive preseason.  

That's 15 guys, with mccoy, Langford, dion Lewis and some other good guys still on the board before Murray comes off.  And that assumes that the news on murray is mostly positive.   What happens if there are reports that Antonio or Cobb or somebody looks good?  Or that Murray isn't impressing coaches with his work ethic?   

If you really want to spend 1.4 to get him,  draft a player at 1.4, wait until week 2, and trade the rookie for him once you at least see him in action.  It's not like he can go up much in price from there.   

FWIW, I took Murray in the PDSL mock as the 16th RB.  Zeke and the others you mention went ahead of him, McCoy and the others soon after. 

I don't trust Rawls yet, but that might be my mistake.

Hard to stream in dynasty, agree with a lot what you said but idk about low qb1 being so deep. It also wouldn't be the first time he's thrown for 5k, he's done it once and almost two other times.

There are roughly 18 QBs I would be "okay with" starting as my QB if strong elsewhere.  Stafford is not a top 4 QB, but anywhere from 5-18 is reasonable IMO (probably closer to 9ish) in the same tier in redraft as Carr, Rivers, Romo, Winston, MM, Palmer, Dalton, Ryan, Tannehill, TT, and Eli. 

 

[Run It Up]

Fair enough. I just don't think that tier is that big. 

 

[Deadpan]

Yeah Murray seems like a buy or hold.  I don't see anyone giving me a first for him.  And second rounders are usually crap shoots.  My team is solid.  He's my Rb 2-4 tied with Dion, and Ryan Mathews

 

[Deadpan]

What is DeAndre Smelters value?  I stashed him all year last year.  He measures up pretty favorably to this class but I tend to think he's a buy.  Tried to get some discussion on him in his thread but no bites really.  

 

[ILUVBEER99]

What is DeAndre Smelters value?  I stashed him all year last year.  He measures up pretty favorably to this class but I tend to think he's a buy.  Tried to get some discussion on him in his thread but no bites really.  

3rd round rookie pick. 

 

[jeaton6]

3rd round rookie pick. 

His ADP is in startups is on the rise. Top 120 or so. Think you'd be hard pressed to be able to buy for less than a mid to late 2.

 

[Borden]

objectively you're probably right but there is very little chance of getting 1.04 for him in most leagues, especially right now.  Even as a contender I'd probably give Murray for Doctson/Treadwell/Zeke/Henry.  Maybe not Henry for a contender but for a non-contender Henry will be worth a lot more.

I am by no means going to go to battle for Murray here but I guessing I will explain my position on the 1.04. It's basically that I expect Zeke, Doctson, Treadwell to be off the board by 1.04 and all three I would take above Murray. After those 3, Coleman and Henry are "maybes" for taking over Murray. If I'm a contender and I can shore up my RB spot for a rookie that isn't projecting as a superstar then I probably would. Pretty much the same as you.

1.04 might be a bit too close in case someone goes Coleman or Henry in the top 3. I also understand that if it's OTC, I likely can get Murray plus something. But we aren't talking about the value or the 1.04. 

 

[FUBAR]

I am by no means going to go to battle for Murray here but I guessing I will explain my position on the 1.04. It's basically that I expect Zeke, Doctson, Treadwell to be off the board by 1.04 and all three I would take above Murray. After those 3, Coleman and Henry are "maybes" for taking over Murray. If I'm a contender and I can shore up my RB spot for a rookie that isn't projecting as a superstar then I probably would. Pretty much the same as you.

1.04 might be a bit too close in case someone goes Coleman or Henry in the top 3. I also understand that if it's OTC, I likely can get Murray plus something. But we aren't talking about the value or the 1.04. 

well I'm confused now. 

He was my most recent pick in a start up at 7.12 but I think there is a void between what his perceived value is and what his actual value is. With the Titans he likely has a 2-3 year window of being a workhorse back. And if draft Tunsil then he should be behind a better OL then in Philly. I would think that based on this he should produce at a RB1 level. But because of his age and last years numbers he's going to get knocked down in value. 

He's definitely a "buy now" guy. Once the redraft season gets going he's going to up in price as people start forgetting last year and he gets hyped. There's so few bell cow backs that I'm guessing he gets around the top 5 in redraft RB rankings. Right now people are thinking long term/youth. People aren't thinking that they are only one player away from the championship. But they will be when they start hearing how amazing their players are in preseason or when their flyer players get talked up as potential sleepers and break out candidates. 

His value all depends on how you see your team. Anything other than a complete rebuild, I think Murray is worth the 1.04. 

the biggest area of disagreement seems to be whether he should be around the top 5 in redraft RB rankings.  I'd like him to be #5, but he's closer to 15th IMO.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

His ADP is in startups is on the rise. Top 120 or so. Think you'd be hard pressed to be able to buy for less than a mid to late 2.

He was drafted in the third round of rookie drafts last offseason and sat out all of last season. Why would his value go up?

 

[King of the Jungle]

He was drafted in the third round of rookie drafts last offseason and sat out all of last season. Why would his value go up?

His value was suppressed by injury. He is now healthy which IMO causes an increase in value (real and fantasy).

 

[Borden]

well I'm confused now. 

the biggest area of disagreement seems to be whether he should be around the top 5 in redraft RB rankings.  I'd like him to be #5, but he's closer to 15th IMO.

Yeah sorry about that. I had a big post that I guess got lost in the ether. In short, I was saying that I think he would be a RB1 (top 12) for this year. The Top 5 thing was where I think redraft "experts" will roughly end up having him. He's 28, had significant success before and going to what seems to be a good fantasy situation. There's an agrument to be made against almost all the backs after the top 3 or 4 (just like Murray). With Murray having his value low right now, experts will love to jump on the bandwagon in June/July because they love to be the one that was talking a player up before anyone else. 

I mostly post from my phone at work, so sometimes I will quickly submit the post before I leave. Sorry about the confusion. I will try to word my posts to be more understandable. 

 

[thriftyrocker]

His value was suppressed by injury. He is now healthy which IMO causes an increase in value (real and fantasy).

Agree. He tore his ACL late in his senior year, and it was pretty much assumed he wouldn't contribute in 2015. You drafted him knowing you were going to wait. That said his value shouldn't be much more than a 3rd. Changes in staff are always dangerous to guys who haven't done anything. Given his size and football IQ, I think he is a good fit for Chip and could play a Riley Cooper role with upside, but they also will have Eric Rogers, Patton, White, and rookies competing for that role.

 

[FUBAR]

Agree. He tore his ACL late in his senior year, and it was pretty much assumed he wouldn't contribute in 2015. You drafted him knowing you were going to wait. That said his value shouldn't be much more than a 3rd. Changes in staff are always dangerous to guys who haven't done anything. Given his size and football IQ, I think he is a good fit for Chip and could play a Riley Cooper role with upside, but they also will have Eric Rogers, Patton, White, and rookies competing for that role.

If I spent a 2015 3rd on him knowing he wouldn't help at all in 2015, why would I give him for a 2016 3rd?  I won't disagree that others shouldn't give much more than that, but anything less than a high 2nd or IDP prospect I like won't get it done.

 

[jeaton6]

If I spent a 2015 3rd on him knowing he wouldn't help at all in 2015, why would I give him for a 2016 3rd?  I won't disagree that others shouldn't give much more than that, but anything less than a high 2nd or IDP prospect I like won't get it done.

Exactly. You used the roster or IR spot all year after expending a 3 so why sell now at that price before seeing what he is? Especially given what is at least perceived to be a weaker/shallower rookie class?

He was drafted in the third round of rookie drafts last offseason and sat out all of last season. Why would his value go up?

See above. Also, think of a guy like Perriman. He was a late 1 last year and sat the whole year yet his ADP is now around 40 in start-up (around rookie pick 3 way ahead of even his late pre-season 2015 ADP). Is anyone likely paying that price in an established league? Not likely but they also aren't likely to bail for a late 1 this year either.

 

[-CE-]

Thoughts on Stafford at this point in his career? Just acquired him for peanuts, but I feel like they sold low obviously.

For those who didn't know, Stafford was the first QB in history to complete 60%+ in every game last year. Basically played without Megatron last year, finished with 4.3k yards and a 1.5:1 TD:Int ratio - which seems to be his floor. That aint bad.

Calvin Johnson 2015 stats: played all 16 games, 88 catches, 1214 yards, 9 TD's.  Totally basically played without Megatron last year. /sarcasm

You really have no idea WTF you're talking about.

I'll answer your original question even though you don't deserve it:  In a 1QB, PPR league, Stafford's ceiling is Ben Roethlisberger (not likely ever again) and his floor is Joe Flacco.  He was dropped outright in one league of mine last year (shouldn't have been), but I wouldn't pay more than late 2nd round rookie and only then if my QB situation was really really really bad.  You got him for peanuts?  Congrats.  He'll be lucky to flirt with top 5 QB status ever again now that he is missing Johnson, but the potential is there if the Lions commit to the passing game.  My guess is he'll finish a couple of seasons around the QB8-10 and never really warrant anything more than a throw in piece to a trade.  The idea that this year will be the same as last year because Megatron is gone is asinine.  

 

[barackdhouse]

I'm not familiar with Smelter's situation, but with Perriman I'm worried if he will ever play. Or play close to what we were expecting. That particular knee injury, from what I've read, is difficult to ever recover the strength from. I have no idea if that has any merit or not, but if I owned Perriman, I might shop him for the late first mentioned above. I'd consider it at least. Even if I did sit on him that whole time.  

 

[FUBAR]

 Also, think of a guy like Perriman. He was a late 1 last year and sat the whole year yet his ADP is now around 40 in start-up (around rookie pick 3 way ahead of even his late pre-season 2015 ADP). Is anyone likely paying that price in an established league? Not likely but they also aren't likely to bail for a late 1 this year either.

hmmm, Perriman is the opposite IMO.  Earlier today Ozzie was less than positive about BP's health

IMO, his value has actually decreased; and we didn't know he was injured when we drafted him last year.  Smelter's value has increased from the last draft because his value was already degraded due to injury and is now apparently healthy.  BP's value was not degraded for injury when drafted but now arguably should be.

 

[Run It Up]

Calvin Johnson 2015 stats: played all 16 games, 88 catches, 1214 yards, 9 TD's.  Totally basically played without Megatron last year. /sarcasm

You really have no idea WTF you're talking about.

My statement was meant to be hyperbolic, didn't realize Megatron cobbled together some pretty good numbers as a compiler last year. I'll concede that, completely wrong. The point I was trying to make was that Stafford was more than okay with his non-megatron weapons.

Either way thanks for the input and kindly go #### yourself.

 

[Borden]

Calvin Johnson 2015 stats: played all 16 games, 88 catches, 1214 yards, 9 TD's.  Totally basically played without Megatron last year. /sarcasm

You really have no idea WTF you're talking about.

I'll answer your original question even though you don't deserve it:  In a 1QB, PPR league, Stafford's ceiling is Ben Roethlisberger (not likely ever again) and his floor is Joe Flacco.  He was dropped outright in one league of mine last year (shouldn't have been), but I wouldn't pay more than late 2nd round rookie and only then if my QB situation was really really really bad.  You got him for peanuts?  Congrats.  He'll be lucky to flirt with top 5 QB status ever again now that he is missing Johnson, but the potential is there if the Lions commit to the passing game.  My guess is he'll finish a couple of seasons around the QB8-10 and never really warrant anything more than a throw in piece to a trade.  The idea that this year will be the same as last year because Megatron is gone is asinine.  

Don't be a jerk. Have your passionate opinion but don't be a jerk. 

 

[jeaton6]

hmmm, Perriman is the opposite IMO.  Earlier today Ozzie was less than positive about BP's health

IMO, his value has actually decreased; and we didn't know he was injured when we drafted him last year.  Smelter's value has increased from the last draft because his value was already degraded due to injury and is now apparently healthy.  BP's value was not degraded for injury when drafted but now arguably should be.

The most recent March ADP data shows his value is higher now than last year. It may be that the latest blurb from Ozzie moves the mark on this. 

He was hurt in training camp well before many rookie drafts occurred and the late preseason ADP I mentioned.

 

[FUBAR]

The most recent March ADP data shows his value is higher now than last year. It may be that the latest blurb from Ozzie moves the mark on this. 

He was hurt in training camp well before many rookie drafts occurred and the late preseason ADP I mentioned.

He wasn't placed on ir until November.  So presumably people thought they might get some time from him in 2015 when they took him in their rookie draft,  not so with Smelter.  Heck, I took him in a redraft as a late sleeper. (Didn't pan out of course)

 

[Hankmoody]

hmmm, Perriman is the opposite IMO.  Earlier today Ozzie was less than positive about BP's health

IMO, his value has actually decreased; and we didn't know he was injured when we drafted him last year.  Smelter's value has increased from the last draft because his value was already degraded due to injury and is now apparently healthy.  BP's value was not degraded for injury when drafted but now arguably should be.

Agreed.  I'd move Perriman for any 2016 1st.  Which I would then flip for any 2017 1st.

 

[jeaton6]

He wasn't placed on ir until November.  So presumably people thought they might get some time from him in 2015 when they took him in their rookie draft,  not so with Smelter.  Heck, I took him in a redraft as a late sleeper. (Didn't pan out of course)

I could see some people having that belief. Not sure many people were necessarily counting on much of a contribution at all from him last year even if he played the last month of the year. 

 

[jeaton6]

Where are we pegging Jimmy Graham's value at now? Seems like tough to sell right now.

 

[barackdhouse]

I got offered Graham for my 3.09 a few days ago. I'm at my roster cut down limit, so I took a moment to look at my roster and decide who I could drop for him. Before I could look, someone else accepted it for their 3.05. It's a TE premium league, and I know he is hurt and in Seattle and all, but kind of shocked me.