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***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (1 Viewer)

The bigger a game Benson has, the more it's going to lift that cut line you have to figure. Luckily I'll be riding along that wave.

-QG

 
'Mario Kart said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
THE CONTEST IS NOW LOCKED.

Useful Links:

LIVE SCORING! - Fellow FBG OrganizedChaos puts this together every year on his own time and on his own dime. He is once again providing this wonderful service for free, so definitely check it out, and if you like it I encourage you to use the donation links on his site to send him a few bucks to show your appreciation.

Ownership stats

Querier

Click here to see your team.
Click to expand...
Just bumping this.So far, I think I am good this week. Thank you Heath Miller.
Click to expand...
FYI, my roster isn't right on the live scoring app. I don't have Demaryius Thomas, although if you're just giving him away I'll take him.I'm @ 182 with Benson - 11.5. It's starting to look like cut lines will be high every week. FWIW, my handcuffs were my top 2 RB scorers (thus far anyway). I actually hope Benson has a quiet game given the projected cut line.

 
So the cutline sits at about 155 and will move based on tonights results?

Normally how much does it move based on a MNF game?

Sitting at 168.4 with Seattle (-8) and Benson (-11)

 
192.3 with Benson (-10.8) and Seattle Def (-3.0) still to go. Not bad considering I was missing both Garcon and Maclin

 
217 this week with a few players still left to go but realistically feel like Seahawks D is only viable chance to enter lineup.

It was an especially encouraging week in that Jennings, Mendenhall and Garcon were out, Benson has yet to play(but probably won't help), Gates was useless and all 2 of my bench QB's had 30+ points so depth at a key spot.

Here is the team:http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/teams/2012/108261

BTW-I'm thinking right now if I had one player on my team I'd really love to have it would be Aaron Hernandez. I think he's going to be a monster when he returns as I think that Patriot offense was changed to make him the feature player. Than considering so many Hernandez owners are going to get put out early, especially if he does make it back until week 10, and I see him as a potential massive difference maker.

 
'menobrown said:
217 this week with a few players still left to go but realistically feel like Seahawks D is only viable chance to enter lineup.It was an especially encouraging week in that Jennings, Mendenhall and Garcon were out, Benson has yet to play(but probably won't help), Gates was useless and all 2 of my bench QB's had 30+ points so depth at a key spot.Here is the team:http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/teams/2012/108261BTW-I'm thinking right now if I had one player on my team I'd really love to have it would be Aaron Hernandez. I think he's going to be a monster when he returns as I think that Patriot offense was changed to make him the feature player. Than considering so many Hernandez owners are going to get put out early, especially if he does make it back until week 10, and I see him as a potential massive difference maker.
Click to expand...
Very nice team.
 
'menobrown said:
217 this week with a few players still left to go but realistically feel like Seahawks D is only viable chance to enter lineup.It was an especially encouraging week in that Jennings, Mendenhall and Garcon were out, Benson has yet to play(but probably won't help), Gates was useless and all 2 of my bench QB's had 30+ points so depth at a key spot.Here is the team:http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/teams/2012/108261BTW-I'm thinking right now if I had one player on my team I'd really love to have it would be Aaron Hernandez. I think he's going to be a monster when he returns as I think that Patriot offense was changed to make him the feature player. Than considering so many Hernandez owners are going to get put out early, especially if he does make it back until week 10, and I see him as a potential massive difference maker.
Click to expand...
Didn't you win the contest a few years ago? I think we're in the presence of greatness here, folks. :thumbup:
 
Last year the cut lines took a drastic cut lower once bye weeks started. We will see that again this year. There are so many small rosters (>20) that bye weeks will have a big impact. Week 4 only has two teams on byes, so it wont go down as much for that week....but starting week 5, cut lines will go down. The further we go along, the higher it will creep up. This of course is historically speaking. The numbers have been trending higher this year, but the pattern should be similar.

 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'menobrown said:
217 this week with a few players still left to go but realistically feel like Seahawks D is only viable chance to enter lineup.It was an especially encouraging week in that Jennings, Mendenhall and Garcon were out, Benson has yet to play(but probably won't help), Gates was useless and all 2 of my bench QB's had 30+ points so depth at a key spot.Here is the team:http://ffltools.com/fbg35k/teams/2012/108261BTW-I'm thinking right now if I had one player on my team I'd really love to have it would be Aaron Hernandez. I think he's going to be a monster when he returns as I think that Patriot offense was changed to make him the feature player. Than considering so many Hernandez owners are going to get put out early, especially if he does make it back until week 10, and I see him as a potential massive difference maker.
Click to expand...
Didn't you win the contest a few years ago? I think we're in the presence of greatness here, folks. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Yea I won it in 2010 and two other years I've made it inside the top 150 so overall I've done well in this event but I've had a year or two I did not make it to midseason before getting bounced.Also the year I won it I failed miserably in my fantasy leagues I actually spent money on.Anytime you win an event like this you need at least a little to a ton of luck so winning it once does not make anyone great, but thanks. Now I'll warn anyone that listens if I so much as pull off another top 10 overall finish my head will surely swell and than I'll wear people out with my bragging.
 
At 195.5 with Benson(-9.4) to go. Wishing that I had stuck with Jaquizz Rodgers instead of putting in Rashad Jennings( I took a chance that MJD would get hurt or not run well opening the door for him...so far I was wrong).

My link

 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'BroadwayG said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
OC > Your site is showing the current cutoff at 165.50. By my calculations, though, it's only at 154.95 right now. I think the discrepancy is that you're still calculating the cutoff based on all 13,318 entries, instead of removing staff and those that were eliminated last week.
Click to expand...
That is a gigantic cut line for being the 2nd elimination week.
Click to expand...
If everyone scores exactly what Dodds has them projected to score tonight, the cut line will move up to 163.15. So that's a rough ballpark for how much it can move tonight.
Click to expand...
That still feels really high, I would have expected the cut line to be nearly identical to last week, as the % advancing is nearly the same and rosters are still fairly well mixed this early in the year. To jump 20+ points seems a bit unlikely, but I suppose it's possible. That said, I'm at 157 + Benson (-9.8) so if your calculations are right I'm in trouble already.
 
'ctriopelle said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'BroadwayG said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
OC > Your site is showing the current cutoff at 165.50. By my calculations, though, it's only at 154.95 right now. I think the discrepancy is that you're still calculating the cutoff based on all 13,318 entries, instead of removing staff and those that were eliminated last week.
Click to expand...
That is a gigantic cut line for being the 2nd elimination week.
Click to expand...
If everyone scores exactly what Dodds has them projected to score tonight, the cut line will move up to 163.15. So that's a rough ballpark for how much it can move tonight.
Click to expand...
That still feels really high, I would have expected the cut line to be nearly identical to last week, as the % advancing is nearly the same and rosters are still fairly well mixed this early in the year. To jump 20+ points seems a bit unlikely, but I suppose it's possible. That said, I'm at 157 + Benson (-9.8) so if your calculations are right I'm in trouble already.
Click to expand...
I think the cut line will rise and fall with the success of Ryan/Luck/Benson/McFadden/CJ/Blackmon/Jones/Decker/Graham.All were up this week sans Benson and Graham. Graham was serviceable. Brwona nd Smith were other highly held players with huge numbers.
 
I am at 214, with Benson, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley and Seattle's defense.

I think I lost in week 3 or 4 last time, so I hope this luck continues.

 
'BassNBrew said:
'ctriopelle said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'BroadwayG said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
OC > Your site is showing the current cutoff at 165.50. By my calculations, though, it's only at 154.95 right now. I think the discrepancy is that you're still calculating the cutoff based on all 13,318 entries, instead of removing staff and those that were eliminated last week.
Click to expand...
That is a gigantic cut line for being the 2nd elimination week.
Click to expand...
If everyone scores exactly what Dodds has them projected to score tonight, the cut line will move up to 163.15. So that's a rough ballpark for how much it can move tonight.
Click to expand...
That still feels really high, I would have expected the cut line to be nearly identical to last week, as the % advancing is nearly the same and rosters are still fairly well mixed this early in the year. To jump 20+ points seems a bit unlikely, but I suppose it's possible. That said, I'm at 157 + Benson (-9.8) so if your calculations are right I'm in trouble already.
Click to expand...
I think the cut line will rise and fall with the success of Ryan/Luck/Benson/McFadden/CJ/Blackmon/Jones/Decker/Graham.All were up this week sans Benson and Graham. Graham was serviceable. Brwona nd Smith were other highly held players with huge numbers.
Click to expand...
Without the Turk barometer it's tough to say what the logical bounds are for scoring, but I still contend that the cut moving +20 points with an identical % advancing to last week and no bye influence is a really unlikely event. Every week there are big scores, and unless you approach 100% ownership for a very high scoring player (more common late in the contest if a cheap guy does well), overall scoring should remain roughly similar with a large number of rosters. I'd feel better about the prediction a few more weeks in, once the "unofficial" scoring simulations have the bugs worked out. Not that those that do this aren't doing an AWESOME job (I worked with OC a few years ago when I had more time), but they tend to be a little buggy early on.
 
237 after this week, hope to have my rb's take me the distance

team Jungle Karma

not one other team has my top three rb combo

 
Don't mind surviving another week, but my investment in Rodgers isn't going as planned. Locker has started over Rodgers two of the three weeks.

Players started all 3 weeks: M Lynch, Harvin, Wallace, V Davis

Players not used so far: Turbin, Powell, Dwyer, Royster, Taiwan Jones, Blackmon, Gates, Medlock

 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
OC > Your site is showing the current cutoff at 165.50. By my calculations, though, it's only at 154.95 right now. I think the discrepancy is that you're still calculating the cutoff based on all 13,318 entries, instead of removing staff and those that were eliminated last week.
Click to expand...
Thanks for bringing it to my attention (thanks for the PM also). I'm working on automating some scripts I ran manually last year since I am not able to watch it as close this year.
 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Guess Drinen's sleeping in this morning. :coffee:
Click to expand...
:tapsfoot: think I'm good with 175.3 but it seems close. Flacco may have saved my skin. Unused: Mendenhall, Dwyer, Royster, Broyles, Gates :X , Prater, Steelers D. 3 Times: McFadden, Harvin, Jared Cook. So, aside from Gates being a waste of money so far and the Steelers D not doing great, nothing too unexpected.
 
'BassNBrew said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Guess Drinen's sleeping in this morning. :coffee:
Click to expand...
I'm leaning towards waiting on a stat change.
Click to expand...
Possibly, though I don't think he's ever waited for that in the past. I mean, the end of the GB-SEA game was crazy but it's not like they're going to change the TD catch to something else. No more reason to expect a meaningful stat change this week than any other week imo. Bseides:
All scoring is determined final at 11:59pm on Tuesday regardless if the NFL later changes the data. Preliminary weekly results will be published on Tuesday morning following the completion of all games.
Click to expand...
He could post up the standings as of now and still adjust them later today if something meaningful were to change. I'm sticking with he's just sleeping in. :)
 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'BassNBrew said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Guess Drinen's sleeping in this morning. :coffee:
Click to expand...
I'm leaning towards waiting on a stat change.
Click to expand...
Possibly, though I don't think he's ever waited for that in the past. I mean, the end of the GB-SEA game was crazy but it's not like they're going to change the TD catch to something else. No more reason to expect a meaningful stat change this week than any other week imo. Bseides:
All scoring is determined final at 11:59pm on Tuesday regardless if the NFL later changes the data. Preliminary weekly results will be published on Tuesday morning following the completion of all games.
Click to expand...
He could post up the standings as of now and still adjust them later today if something meaningful were to change. I'm sticking with he's just sleeping in. :)
Click to expand...
Thanks...missed that.I was refering to the Brown fumble.
 
'Tennessee_ATO said:
'Mario Kart said:
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
THE CONTEST IS NOW LOCKED.

Useful Links:

LIVE SCORING! - Fellow FBG OrganizedChaos puts this together every year on his own time and on his own dime. He is once again providing this wonderful service for free, so definitely check it out, and if you like it I encourage you to use the donation links on his site to send him a few bucks to show your appreciation.

Ownership stats

Querier

Click here to see your team.
Click to expand...
Just bumping this.So far, I think I am good this week. Thank you Heath Miller.
Click to expand...
FYI, my roster isn't right on the live scoring app. I don't have Demaryius Thomas, although if you're just giving him away I'll take him.I'm @ 182 with Benson - 11.5. It's starting to look like cut lines will be high every week. FWIW, my handcuffs were my top 2 RB scorers (thus far anyway). I actually hope Benson has a quiet game given the projected cut line.
Click to expand...
You should be all set now. Let me know if that's not the case.
 
I went through the first 500 teams after the Week 2 cutoff and I found a vast majority of those were 18 player rosters with combinations of these players most prevalent....Rodgers QB, McFadden, C. Johnson, Murray, F. Jackson, J. Jones, Calvin Johnson, Jennings, Gates, Hernandez,. My 3 weeks so far have been 155.95, 167.8 and 200.9...

My team..........http://subscribers.f...2012/109408.php

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Barely made it. That is a galactic cut line. Just cruising through the querier, a lot of very good looking teams out with 150-160.

 
Still alive. Thank god for Andrew Luck.

Code: 
Aaron Rodgers         $31     27.85  14.35  12.85                                              bye                                           Andrew Luck           $11     16.35  25.30  30.65    bye                                                                                     ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Arian Foster          $34     20.50  26.70  17.80                                bye                                                         Darren Sproles        $23     14.50  25.80   6.20                  bye                                                                       Bilal Powell           $4      3.60   3.30   8.90                                       bye                                                  Cedric Benson          $3      1.80  15.60  16.40                                              bye                                           Evan Royster           $3      1.00   3.10   5.40                                              bye                                           Taiwan Jones           $2      0.00   0.00   0.00           bye                                                                              ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Hakeem Nicks          $21      7.80  35.90   0.00                                                     bye                                    Steve Johnson         $18     15.50  13.60  19.10                                bye                                                         Antonio Brown         $17     11.80  15.80  21.70    bye                                                                                     Danny Amendola         $6     12.20  37.00  11.60                                       bye                                                  Eddie Royal            $2      3.60   3.80   3.70                         bye                                                                Ryan Broyles           $2      0.00   0.00   0.00           bye                                                                              A.J. Jenkins           $2      0.00   0.00   0.00                                       bye                                                  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jimmy Graham          $29     23.50  23.60  13.60                  bye                                                                       Aaron Hernandez       $23     21.40   0.00   0.00   out?   out?   out?                  bye                                                  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jay Feely              $3      9.00  11.00  11.00                                              bye                                           Shaun Suisham          $3      8.00  13.00   8.00    bye                                                                                     Lawrence Tynes         $3      5.00  17.00  24.00                                                     bye                                    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Seattle Seahawks       $4      5.00  11.00   8.00                                                     bye                                    Cincinnati Bengals     $3      3.00  10.00   8.00                                bye                                                         St. Louis Rams         $3     13.00   3.00   4.00                                       bye                                                  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL                        169.25 233.70 171.75   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00 CUTOFF                         0.00 139.60 161.90   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00
 
Code: 
SIZE	ALL	ALIVE	SURV %18	4633	2825	61.0%19	1813	1189	65.6%20	1376	946	68.8%21	1142	786	68.8%22	966	685	70.9%23	812	595	73.3%24	626	480	76.7%25	482	371	77.0%26	380	293	77.1%27	308	244	79.2%28	229	176	76.9%29	191	150	78.5%30	335	260	77.6%
 
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