Michael Crabtree - 2014 and beyond (1 Viewer)

[KellysHeroes]

he returned from a torn Achilles injury and honestly looked back to normal. Turning 27 in the beginning of next season where would people rate him, top 15?

http://www.sfgate.com/49ers/article/49ers-Michael-Crabtree-makes-amazing-Achilles-5122873.php

http://espn.go.com/blog/san-francisco-49ers/post/_/id/4489/harbaugh-crabtrees-return-from-injury-rare

 

[MattFancy]

That's tough. I could buy anywhere from Top 15 to Top 20. Probably no higher than 13 or 14.

 

[Adam Harstad]

He played 8 games this season, and his numbers would pro-rate to 68/974/2. Obviously the touchdown number is just small sample sizes. Overall, that's extremely impressive for a guy who returned 6 months after returning from what has historically been a career-ending injury. He looked better in his quick return than Suggs did last year, and Suggs was much improved in year 2. Given the way Kaepernick locks on to his early reads, I see no reason why Crabtree couldn't be back to a 90/1200 season starting next year.

I have him 12th in my most recent dynasty rankings, iirc, although I've pretty much had him there all year.

Edit: He averaged 2.01 yards per route run, according to PFF. If he'd had the minimum number necessary to qualify, that would have ranked him in the 16-18 range, near Decker, Golden Tate, Kendall Wright, and Victor Cruz. Again, not bad at all for a sorry receiver who's still not at full strength.

 

[Terpman22]

He's a sorry receiver.

 

[bombjack]

Mediocre!

 

[MoveToSkypager]

His mouf shuts too quick.

 

[bostonfred]

I started this post wondering why people are so high on him. I looked up his numbers. Five years in the league, and he's had:

11 games 48/625/2

16 games 55/741/6

15 games 72/874/4

16 games 85/1105/9

5 games 19/284/1

I know he has a great pedigree (drafted tenth overall) and nice postseason numbers, which, in three seasons, combine for 8 games 40/516/4 - good, but no better than his 85/1105/9 season - and his splits with Kaepernick the second half of 2012. Those splits (not counting week 9 when Crabtree caught 5/59/1 from Alex Smith in the first 20 minutes and 1/11/0 from Kaep in the final 40) work out to

7 games, 41/595/5 - which is a pace for

16 games 94/1360/11

OK, that looks a little better. Then you add in his postseason numbers from that year only, and you get

3 games 20/285/3 - for a total of

10 games 61/880/8 - which prorates to

16 games 98/1408/13

So I think that's a reasonable stake in the ground for his upside - close to 100 catches, 1400 yards, double digit TDs. That's legit top 5 upside.

But now here's the downside argument. Kaep set the world on fire the second half of 2012. He looked good, but not nearly as good, this year. Is that because Crabtree was hurt? Or because Kaep regressed? It's hard to say. Gore is getting older. If San Francisco doesn't have that running game, they might not be as successful with the read option (yes I know they're not a read option team but the threat of the read option is real), which hurts the passing game, which hurts Crabtree. Also, the Boldin question - will he stay in SF? Or leave? Which is better for Crabtree's numbers? Boldin certainly ate up some targets this year, but he seems to be in decline, while Crabtree is ascending. Still, there's some uncertainty. And even if Crabtree fully recovers - which is hardly a sure thing - he's missed time in three of five seasons, plays in the toughest defensive division in the league, and has yet to reach his full potential. Who's to say that, even if he does give you that 1400 yard season, he'll be able to keep it up for more than a year or two? It's not long ago that people were starting to write off his talent; a half a good season with Kaepernick doesn't totally change that for me.

So it's a good question - where does he belong? In redraft, you're looking at a high upside player with a high enough floor I'd take him ahead of guys like Roddy or Fitz, but not quite in the range with Marshall and Julio. In dynasty, I think I have him slated a touch lower - mixed in with other high upside guys like T.Y. Hilton, DeSean Jackson and Keenan Allen. I'm sure people can make their case for any one of those guys as the best long term, which raises the point that he's a polarizing player, who might command a lot more in exit trade value than he's actually worth. I'm glad I looked him up because he's never really been high on my radar.

 

[saintfool]

i have him in dynasty. kaepernick likes him. the problem for him is that he's going to have four games where two of the NFLs best CBs - Peterson & Sherman - effectively shut him down. i think the 9ers will open up more offensively and, of the WRs on the roster, Crabtree stands to benefit the most.

 

[Two Deep]

I hope he regains a little more speed. Right now It would be a toss up between him and Boldin in the 40

 

[MaxThreshold]

I started this post wondering why people are so high on him. I looked up his numbers. Five years in the league, and he's had:

11 games 48/625/2

16 games 55/741/6

15 games 72/874/4

16 games 85/1105/9

5 games 19/284/1

I know he has a great pedigree (drafted tenth overall) and nice postseason numbers, which, in three seasons, combine for 8 games 40/516/4 - good, but no better than his 85/1105/9 season - and his splits with Kaepernick the second half of 2012. Those splits (not counting week 9 when Crabtree caught 5/59/1 from Alex Smith in the first 20 minutes and 1/11/0 from Kaep in the final 40) work out to

7 games, 41/595/5 - which is a pace for

16 games 94/1360/11

OK, that looks a little better. Then you add in his postseason numbers from that year only, and you get

3 games 20/285/3 - for a total of

10 games 61/880/8 - which prorates to

16 games 98/1408/13

So I think that's a reasonable stake in the ground for his upside - close to 100 catches, 1400 yards, double digit TDs. That's legit top 5 upside.

But now here's the downside argument. Kaep set the world on fire the second half of 2012. He looked good, but not nearly as good, this year. Is that because Crabtree was hurt? Or because Kaep regressed? It's hard to say. Gore is getting older. If San Francisco doesn't have that running game, they might not be as successful with the read option (yes I know they're not a read option team but the threat of the read option is real), which hurts the passing game, which hurts Crabtree. Also, the Boldin question - will he stay in SF? Or leave? Which is better for Crabtree's numbers? Boldin certainly ate up some targets this year, but he seems to be in decline, while Crabtree is ascending. Still, there's some uncertainty. And even if Crabtree fully recovers - which is hardly a sure thing - he's missed time in three of five seasons, plays in the toughest defensive division in the league, and has yet to reach his full potential. Who's to say that, even if he does give you that 1400 yard season, he'll be able to keep it up for more than a year or two? It's not long ago that people were starting to write off his talent; a half a good season with Kaepernick doesn't totally change that for me.

So it's a good question - where does he belong? In redraft, you're looking at a high upside player with a high enough floor I'd take him ahead of guys like Roddy or Fitz, but not quite in the range with Marshall and Julio. In dynasty, I think I have him slated a touch lower - mixed in with other high upside guys like T.Y. Hilton, DeSean Jackson and Keenan Allen. I'm sure people can make their case for any one of those guys as the best long term, which raises the point that he's a polarizing player, who might command a lot more in exit trade value than he's actually worth. I'm glad I looked him up because he's never really been high on my radar.

Never been big on Crabtree at all. IMO, he's a mediocre receiver (upper Tier 3) who had one good year. Now throw that in with the fact that Kaep seems like he would rather run that throw (on top of being an average qb). Yes, I know it's ironic coming from a Packer fan where he seems to throw for about 6000 yards and 20 TDs against us, but take those games away and what you have is mediocre QB who can run but can't really throw. Like Michael Vick.

Seriously, if he hasn't stood out by now he never will.

 

[Tool]

I started this post wondering why people are so high on him. I looked up his numbers. Five years in the league, and he's had:

11 games 48/625/2

16 games 55/741/6

15 games 72/874/4

16 games 85/1105/9

5 games 19/284/1

I know he has a great pedigree (drafted tenth overall) and nice postseason numbers, which, in three seasons, combine for 8 games 40/516/4 - good, but no better than his 85/1105/9 season - and his splits with Kaepernick the second half of 2012. Those splits (not counting week 9 when Crabtree caught 5/59/1 from Alex Smith in the first 20 minutes and 1/11/0 from Kaep in the final 40) work out to

7 games, 41/595/5 - which is a pace for

16 games 94/1360/11

OK, that looks a little better. Then you add in his postseason numbers from that year only, and you get

3 games 20/285/3 - for a total of

10 games 61/880/8 - which prorates to

16 games 98/1408/13

So I think that's a reasonable stake in the ground for his upside - close to 100 catches, 1400 yards, double digit TDs. That's legit top 5 upside.

But now here's the downside argument. Kaep set the world on fire the second half of 2012. He looked good, but not nearly as good, this year. Is that because Crabtree was hurt? Or because Kaep regressed? It's hard to say. Gore is getting older. If San Francisco doesn't have that running game, they might not be as successful with the read option (yes I know they're not a read option team but the threat of the read option is real), which hurts the passing game, which hurts Crabtree. Also, the Boldin question - will he stay in SF? Or leave? Which is better for Crabtree's numbers? Boldin certainly ate up some targets this year, but he seems to be in decline, while Crabtree is ascending. Still, there's some uncertainty. And even if Crabtree fully recovers - which is hardly a sure thing - he's missed time in three of five seasons, plays in the toughest defensive division in the league, and has yet to reach his full potential. Who's to say that, even if he does give you that 1400 yard season, he'll be able to keep it up for more than a year or two? It's not long ago that people were starting to write off his talent; a half a good season with Kaepernick doesn't totally change that for me.

So it's a good question - where does he belong? In redraft, you're looking at a high upside player with a high enough floor I'd take him ahead of guys like Roddy or Fitz, but not quite in the range with Marshall and Julio. In dynasty, I think I have him slated a touch lower - mixed in with other high upside guys like T.Y. Hilton, DeSean Jackson and Keenan Allen. I'm sure people can make their case for any one of those guys as the best long term, which raises the point that he's a polarizing player, who might command a lot more in exit trade value than he's actually worth. I'm glad I looked him up because he's never really been high on my radar.

Never been big on Crabtree at all. IMO, he's a mediocre receiver (upper Tier 3) who had one good year. Now throw that in with the fact that Kaep seems like he would rather run that throw (on top of being an average qb). Yes, I know it's ironic coming from a Packer fan where he seems to throw for about 6000 yards and 20 TDs against us, but take those games away and what you have is mediocre QB who can run but can't really throw. Like Michael Vick.

Seriously, if he hasn't stood out by now he never will.

Well he did stand out in '12 with Kaep, #'s were impressive. What makes him difficult to value is Kaep regressed this year and he got hurt. I doubt he was 100% when he came back yet he still looked pretty good. On the other hand he only scored 1 TD in 5 regulalr season games and 3 post season games (although first regular season game he wasn't targeted much).

 

[Thunderlips]

I think he's a better NFL receiver than fantasy receiver.......but I'd be content with him as my 3WR as he's young enough and has enough potential to have a couple of WR1/2 seasons.

 

[menobrown]

People pulling up his old numbers before Kaepernick took over is a waste of time. I don't care what he did pre-CK. The next WR I see putting up big numbers with Alex Smith at QB will be the first.

In 2012 when he was healthy and CK was raw as he could be was putting up top 10 numbers. That's what matters to me.

I don't care what his numbers were this year. They were not bad and better than I expected but he was nothing close to looking 100%.

He'll be a top 10 WR next year in PPR leagues next year and for the next few years of his career so long as he remains healthy.

 

[Shawn]

People pulling up his old numbers before Kaepernick took over is a waste of time. I don't care what he did pre-CK. The next WR I see putting up big numbers with Alex Smith at QB will be the first.

In 2012 when he was healthy and CK was raw as he could be was putting up top 10 numbers. That's what matters to me.

I don't care what his numbers were this year. They were not bad and better than I expected but he was nothing close to looking 100%.

He'll be a top 10 WR next year in PPR leagues next year and for the next few years of his career so long as he remains healthy.

He is a solid hold for me in my dynasty league and someone i will target heavily in startups if undervalued by the masses.

 

[Bayhawks]

People pulling up his old numbers before Kaepernick took over is a waste of time. I don't care what he did pre-CK. The next WR I see putting up big numbers with Alex Smith at QB will be the first.

In 2012 when he was healthy and CK was raw as he could be was putting up top 10 numbers. That's what matters to me.

I don't care what his numbers were this year. They were not bad and better than I expected but he was nothing close to looking 100%.

He'll be a top 10 WR next year in PPR leagues next year and for the next few years of his career so long as he remains healthy.

People pulling up his old numbers pre-Achilles injury and before CK had time to become a better QB is a waste of time.

Seriously, you're basing your expectations on Kaepernick not growing as a passer. That stretch in 2012/2013, Crabtree seemed to be CK's #1 read, and he locked onto him. IF CK becomes a better QB (reading defenses, going through his progressions, finding the open man, etc), Crabtree may not get as much love as he did during that stretch. Also, IF Crabtree never gets back to his pre-injury form, that changes things as well. Will he be as productive if his new 100% is only 90% of what he once was?

We don't know-and neither do you. So looking at that hot stretch, and ignoring other variables is almost as pointless as looking at what Crabtree did with A Smith as his QB.

 

[thecatch]

People pulling up his old numbers before Kaepernick took over is a waste of time. I don't care what he did pre-CK. The next WR I see putting up big numbers with Alex Smith at QB will be the first.

In 2012 when he was healthy and CK was raw as he could be was putting up top 10 numbers. That's what matters to me.

I don't care what his numbers were this year. They were not bad and better than I expected but he was nothing close to looking 100%.

He'll be a top 10 WR next year in PPR leagues next year and for the next few years of his career so long as he remains healthy.

People pulling up his old numbers pre-Achilles injury and before CK had time to become a better QB is a waste of time.

Seriously, you're basing your expectations on Kaepernick not growing as a passer. That stretch in 2012/2013, Crabtree seemed to be CK's #1 read, and he locked onto him. IF CK becomes a better QB (reading defenses, going through his progressions, finding the open man, etc), Crabtree may not get as much love as he did during that stretch. Also, IF Crabtree never gets back to his pre-injury form, that changes things as well. Will he be as productive if his new 100% is only 90% of what he once was?

We don't know-and neither do you. So looking at that hot stretch, and ignoring other variables is almost as pointless as looking at what Crabtree did with A Smith as his QB.

If Kaepernick grows as a passer, there will be a much bigger receiving pie to split. Crabtree would have a smaller slice, but could very well put up 2012 numbers.

Crabtree's long term future is difficult to forecast with his impending free agency. I think he's a top flight #2 WR, and I get the sense the Niners probably agree, but he will almost certainly want #1 WR money (the fact that he hasn't been extended already seems to be indicative of such a gap). SF won't be able to afford that kind of cap hit for him. Whether he ends up staying with Kaepernick will likely depend on whether he can convince some other team that he's worth a Mike Wallace type deal.

 

[TheGreatSpinks]

I hope he regains a little more speed. Right now It would be a toss up between him and Boldin in the 40

He didn't have the speed to lose either. I watched him play quite a bit at Tech, and saw him when he played at Dallas-Carter, although he wasn't a WR at the time.

I think he can be a high end WR2, I think his ceiling is capped and will prevent him from reaching WR1 numbers.

 

[TheGreatSpinks]

People pulling up his old numbers before Kaepernick took over is a waste of time. I don't care what he did pre-CK. The next WR I see putting up big numbers with Alex Smith at QB will be the first.

In 2012 when he was healthy and CK was raw as he could be was putting up top 10 numbers. That's what matters to me.

I don't care what his numbers were this year. They were not bad and better than I expected but he was nothing close to looking 100%.

He'll be a top 10 WR next year in PPR leagues next year and for the next few years of his career so long as he remains healthy.

People pulling up his old numbers pre-Achilles injury and before CK had time to become a better QB is a waste of time.

Seriously, you're basing your expectations on Kaepernick not growing as a passer. That stretch in 2012/2013, Crabtree seemed to be CK's #1 read, and he locked onto him. IF CK becomes a better QB (reading defenses, going through his progressions, finding the open man, etc), Crabtree may not get as much love as he did during that stretch. Also, IF Crabtree never gets back to his pre-injury form, that changes things as well. Will he be as productive if his new 100% is only 90% of what he once was?

We don't know-and neither do you. So looking at that hot stretch, and ignoring other variables is almost as pointless as looking at what Crabtree did with A Smith as his QB.

If Kaepernick grows as a passer, there will be a much bigger receiving pie to split. Crabtree would have a smaller slice, but could very well put up 2012 numbers.

Crabtree's long term future is difficult to forecast with his impending free agency. I think he's a top flight #2 WR, and I get the sense the Niners probably agree, but he will almost certainly want #1 WR money (the fact that he hasn't been extended already seems to be indicative of such a gap). SF won't be able to afford that kind of cap hit for him. Whether he ends up staying with Kaepernick will likely depend on whether he can convince some other team that he's worth a Mike Wallace type deal.

Kaepernick showed no growth as a passer this year. He still doesn't go through his progressions, and is quick to bail out of the pocket. He still lacks finesse on the ball and just tries to rocket everything to his receivers. He may improve a little bit, but I think Kaep is what he is for the most part... A roller coaster that will kill his team with stupid mistakes/bad throws/ball security or the guy who plays the Packers and you start to think HOF.

 

[thecatch]

People pulling up his old numbers before Kaepernick took over is a waste of time. I don't care what he did pre-CK. The next WR I see putting up big numbers with Alex Smith at QB will be the first.

In 2012 when he was healthy and CK was raw as he could be was putting up top 10 numbers. That's what matters to me.

I don't care what his numbers were this year. They were not bad and better than I expected but he was nothing close to looking 100%.

He'll be a top 10 WR next year in PPR leagues next year and for the next few years of his career so long as he remains healthy.

People pulling up his old numbers pre-Achilles injury and before CK had time to become a better QB is a waste of time.

Seriously, you're basing your expectations on Kaepernick not growing as a passer. That stretch in 2012/2013, Crabtree seemed to be CK's #1 read, and he locked onto him. IF CK becomes a better QB (reading defenses, going through his progressions, finding the open man, etc), Crabtree may not get as much love as he did during that stretch. Also, IF Crabtree never gets back to his pre-injury form, that changes things as well. Will he be as productive if his new 100% is only 90% of what he once was?

We don't know-and neither do you. So looking at that hot stretch, and ignoring other variables is almost as pointless as looking at what Crabtree did with A Smith as his QB.

If Kaepernick grows as a passer, there will be a much bigger receiving pie to split. Crabtree would have a smaller slice, but could very well put up 2012 numbers.

Crabtree's long term future is difficult to forecast with his impending free agency. I think he's a top flight #2 WR, and I get the sense the Niners probably agree, but he will almost certainly want #1 WR money (the fact that he hasn't been extended already seems to be indicative of such a gap). SF won't be able to afford that kind of cap hit for him. Whether he ends up staying with Kaepernick will likely depend on whether he can convince some other team that he's worth a Mike Wallace type deal.

Kaepernick showed no growth as a passer this year. He still doesn't go through his progressions, and is quick to bail out of the pocket. He still lacks finesse on the ball and just tries to rocket everything to his receivers. He may improve a little bit, but I think Kaep is what he is for the most part... A roller coaster that will kill his team with stupid mistakes/bad throws/ball security or the guy who plays the Packers and you start to think HOF.

Yes, that's certainly all Kaepernick is and ever will be.

Unfortunately for you, that's not relevant to the discussion you quoted. If Kaepernick doesn't grow as a passer, and Crabtree is still on the roster, Crabtree owners can continue to look forward to Kaepernick locking onto him and he will continue to have 2012 upside.

 

[Bayhawks]

People pulling up his old numbers before Kaepernick took over is a waste of time. I don't care what he did pre-CK. The next WR I see putting up big numbers with Alex Smith at QB will be the first.

In 2012 when he was healthy and CK was raw as he could be was putting up top 10 numbers. That's what matters to me.

I don't care what his numbers were this year. They were not bad and better than I expected but he was nothing close to looking 100%.

He'll be a top 10 WR next year in PPR leagues next year and for the next few years of his career so long as he remains healthy.

People pulling up his old numbers pre-Achilles injury and before CK had time to become a better QB is a waste of time.

Seriously, you're basing your expectations on Kaepernick not growing as a passer. That stretch in 2012/2013, Crabtree seemed to be CK's #1 read, and he locked onto him. IF CK becomes a better QB (reading defenses, going through his progressions, finding the open man, etc), Crabtree may not get as much love as he did during that stretch. Also, IF Crabtree never gets back to his pre-injury form, that changes things as well. Will he be as productive if his new 100% is only 90% of what he once was?

We don't know-and neither do you. So looking at that hot stretch, and ignoring other variables is almost as pointless as looking at what Crabtree did with A Smith as his QB.

If Kaepernick grows as a passer, there will be a much bigger receiving pie to split. Crabtree would have a smaller slice, but could very well put up 2012 numbers.

Crabtree's long term future is difficult to forecast with his impending free agency. I think he's a top flight #2 WR, and I get the sense the Niners probably agree, but he will almost certainly want #1 WR money (the fact that he hasn't been extended already seems to be indicative of such a gap). SF won't be able to afford that kind of cap hit for him. Whether he ends up staying with Kaepernick will likely depend on whether he can convince some other team that he's worth a Mike Wallace type deal.

Maybe, maybe not. Even if Kaepernick does improve as a passer, I don't see Harbaugh changing SF's identity; and that is a running team. So, if Kaepernick gets better at reading D's and finding the open man, rather than forcing the ball to Crabtree, the "pie" may not increase enough to offset the production he'd get as the guy CK forces the ball to.

 

[Bayhawks]

People pulling up his old numbers before Kaepernick took over is a waste of time. I don't care what he did pre-CK. The next WR I see putting up big numbers with Alex Smith at QB will be the first.

In 2012 when he was healthy and CK was raw as he could be was putting up top 10 numbers. That's what matters to me.

I don't care what his numbers were this year. They were not bad and better than I expected but he was nothing close to looking 100%.

He'll be a top 10 WR next year in PPR leagues next year and for the next few years of his career so long as he remains healthy.

People pulling up his old numbers pre-Achilles injury and before CK had time to become a better QB is a waste of time.

Seriously, you're basing your expectations on Kaepernick not growing as a passer. That stretch in 2012/2013, Crabtree seemed to be CK's #1 read, and he locked onto him. IF CK becomes a better QB (reading defenses, going through his progressions, finding the open man, etc), Crabtree may not get as much love as he did during that stretch. Also, IF Crabtree never gets back to his pre-injury form, that changes things as well. Will he be as productive if his new 100% is only 90% of what he once was?

We don't know-and neither do you. So looking at that hot stretch, and ignoring other variables is almost as pointless as looking at what Crabtree did with A Smith as his QB.

If Kaepernick grows as a passer, there will be a much bigger receiving pie to split. Crabtree would have a smaller slice, but could very well put up 2012 numbers.

Crabtree's long term future is difficult to forecast with his impending free agency. I think he's a top flight #2 WR, and I get the sense the Niners probably agree, but he will almost certainly want #1 WR money (the fact that he hasn't been extended already seems to be indicative of such a gap). SF won't be able to afford that kind of cap hit for him. Whether he ends up staying with Kaepernick will likely depend on whether he can convince some other team that he's worth a Mike Wallace type deal.

Kaepernick showed no growth as a passer this year. He still doesn't go through his progressions, and is quick to bail out of the pocket. He still lacks finesse on the ball and just tries to rocket everything to his receivers. He may improve a little bit, but I think Kaep is what he is for the most part... A roller coaster that will kill his team with stupid mistakes/bad throws/ball security or the guy who plays the Packers and you start to think HOF.

Yes, that's certainly all Kaepernick is and ever will be.

Unfortunately for you, that's not relevant to the discussion you quoted. If Kaepernick doesn't grow as a passer, and Crabtree is still on the roster, Crabtree owners can continue to look forward to Kaepernick locking onto him and he will continue to have 2012 upside.

If Kaepernick doesn't improve as a passer, I think Crabtree will put up good numbers (especially if he can return to 100% from the Achilles). Opportunity equals fantasy production, and if he is being forced the ball, he should put up very nice FF numbers.

 

[MaxThreshold]

People pulling up his old numbers before Kaepernick took over is a waste of time. I don't care what he did pre-CK. The next WR I see putting up big numbers with Alex Smith at QB will be the first.

In 2012 when he was healthy and CK was raw as he could be was putting up top 10 numbers. That's what matters to me.

I don't care what his numbers were this year. They were not bad and better than I expected but he was nothing close to looking 100%.

He'll be a top 10 WR next year in PPR leagues next year and for the next few years of his career so long as he remains healthy.

People pulling up his old numbers pre-Achilles injury and before CK had time to become a better QB is a waste of time.

Seriously, you're basing your expectations on Kaepernick not growing as a passer. That stretch in 2012/2013, Crabtree seemed to be CK's #1 read, and he locked onto him. IF CK becomes a better QB (reading defenses, going through his progressions, finding the open man, etc), Crabtree may not get as much love as he did during that stretch. Also, IF Crabtree never gets back to his pre-injury form, that changes things as well. Will he be as productive if his new 100% is only 90% of what he once was?

We don't know-and neither do you. So looking at that hot stretch, and ignoring other variables is almost as pointless as looking at what Crabtree did with A Smith as his QB.

If Kaepernick grows as a passer, there will be a much bigger receiving pie to split. Crabtree would have a smaller slice, but could very well put up 2012 numbers.

Crabtree's long term future is difficult to forecast with his impending free agency. I think he's a top flight #2 WR, and I get the sense the Niners probably agree, but he will almost certainly want #1 WR money (the fact that he hasn't been extended already seems to be indicative of such a gap). SF won't be able to afford that kind of cap hit for him. Whether he ends up staying with Kaepernick will likely depend on whether he can convince some other team that he's worth a Mike Wallace type deal.

Kaepernick showed no growth as a passer this year. He still doesn't go through his progressions, and is quick to bail out of the pocket. He still lacks finesse on the ball and just tries to rocket everything to his receivers. He may improve a little bit, but I think Kaep is what he is for the most part... A roller coaster that will kill his team with stupid mistakes/bad throws/ball security or the guy who plays the Packers and you start to think HOF.

Yes, that's certainly all Kaepernick is and ever will be.

Unfortunately for you, that's not relevant to the discussion you quoted. If Kaepernick doesn't grow as a passer, and Crabtree is still on the roster, Crabtree owners can continue to look forward to Kaepernick locking onto him and he will continue to have 2012 upside.

If Kaepernick doesn't improve as a passer, I think Crabtree will put up good numbers (especially if he can return to 100% from the Achilles). Opportunity equals fantasy production, and if he is being forced the ball, he should put up very nice FF numbers.

But he's not being forced the ball because Kaep bails too easily and would rather run than it than pass it. Also, Vernon Davis is the one being force-fed the ball, not Crabtree.

Kaep is young so he still has time to improve. We just haven't seen it this year. He's too much like a light Michael Vick.

 

[thecatch]

Maybe, maybe not. Even if Kaepernick does improve as a passer, I don't see Harbaugh changing SF's identity; and that is a running team. So, if Kaepernick gets better at reading D's and finding the open man, rather than forcing the ball to Crabtree, the "pie" may not increase enough to offset the production he'd get as the guy CK forces the ball to.

Perhaps. However, through the end of 2012 and the first 3 or so games of this season, we saw SF go with a much heavier emphasis on the pass as a result of Kaepernick having so much success through the air during much of 2012. If you go back and read what the beat writers were saying before this year, it was all about how Roman really wanted to open up the passing attack. It wasn't until Kaepernick got eaten alive in Weeks 2-3 that SF refocused on the heavy ground game. If Kaepernick proves capable of handling a greater load with his arm (or Roman gets more creative with his passing offense, which is another part of this problem), I think you'd see a lot more pass attempts from this offense.

 

[Bayhawks]

Maybe, maybe not. Even if Kaepernick does improve as a passer, I don't see Harbaugh changing SF's identity; and that is a running team. So, if Kaepernick gets better at reading D's and finding the open man, rather than forcing the ball to Crabtree, the "pie" may not increase enough to offset the production he'd get as the guy CK forces the ball to.

Perhaps. However, through the end of 2012 and the first 3 or so games of this season, we saw SF go with a much heavier emphasis on the pass as a result of Kaepernick having so much success through the air during much of 2012. If you go back and read what the beat writers were saying before this year, it was all about how Roman really wanted to open up the passing attack. It wasn't until Kaepernick got eaten alive in Weeks 2-3 that SF refocused on the heavy ground game. If Kaepernick proves capable of handling a greater load with his arm (or Roman gets more creative with his passing offense, which is another part of this problem), I think you'd see a lot more pass attempts from this offense.

Did we? Kaepernick threw 416 passes this year. If you factor in the games he started last year, his 3 playoff games, then the 1st 3 games of this season, he was on pace for 451 attempts over a 16 game season. That's the difference of two passes a game. That's not really a "much heavier emphasis."

If you only factor in the last two games of last year's regular season (2 of his 3 highest attempts/game), plus the 3 playoff games, plus the first 3 games this season, he was on pace for 476 attempts over a 16 game season. That's a little less than 4 more passes a game. Still not really a "much heavier emphasis."

The media can report what they want to report. Coaches can use coach-speak all they want. Bottom line is that SF is built to be a run-heavy offense. They have the O-line for it, they have the defense for it, and they have the coach who likes it.

If Kaepernick is averaging 500 (or less) attempts per season, AND he becomes more adept at reading D's & finding the open man, Crabtree will not put up great FF numbers.

 

[menobrown]

People pulling up his old numbers before Kaepernick took over is a waste of time. I don't care what he did pre-CK. The next WR I see putting up big numbers with Alex Smith at QB will be the first.

In 2012 when he was healthy and CK was raw as he could be was putting up top 10 numbers. That's what matters to me.

I don't care what his numbers were this year. They were not bad and better than I expected but he was nothing close to looking 100%.

He'll be a top 10 WR next year in PPR leagues next year and for the next few years of his career so long as he remains healthy.

People pulling up his old numbers pre-Achilles injury and before CK had time to become a better QB is a waste of time.

Seriously, you're basing your expectations on Kaepernick not growing as a passer. That stretch in 2012/2013, Crabtree seemed to be CK's #1 read, and he locked onto him. IF CK becomes a better QB (reading defenses, going through his progressions, finding the open man, etc), Crabtree may not get as much love as he did during that stretch. Also, IF Crabtree never gets back to his pre-injury form, that changes things as well. Will he be as productive if his new 100% is only 90% of what he once was?

We don't know-and neither do you. So looking at that hot stretch, and ignoring other variables is almost as pointless as looking at what Crabtree did with A Smith as his QB.

If Kaepernick grows as a passer, there will be a much bigger receiving pie to split. Crabtree would have a smaller slice, but could very well put up 2012 numbers.

Crabtree's long term future is difficult to forecast with his impending free agency. I think he's a top flight #2 WR, and I get the sense the Niners probably agree, but he will almost certainly want #1 WR money (the fact that he hasn't been extended already seems to be indicative of such a gap). SF won't be able to afford that kind of cap hit for him. Whether he ends up staying with Kaepernick will likely depend on whether he can convince some other team that he's worth a Mike Wallace type deal.

Kaepernick showed no growth as a passer this year. He still doesn't go through his progressions, and is quick to bail out of the pocket. He still lacks finesse on the ball and just tries to rocket everything to his receivers. He may improve a little bit, but I think Kaep is what he is for the most part... A roller coaster that will kill his team with stupid mistakes/bad throws/ball security or the guy who plays the Packers and you start to think HOF.

Yes, that's certainly all Kaepernick is and ever will be.

Unfortunately for you, that's not relevant to the discussion you quoted. If Kaepernick doesn't grow as a passer, and Crabtree is still on the roster, Crabtree owners can continue to look forward to Kaepernick locking onto him and he will continue to have 2012 upside.

If Kaepernick doesn't improve as a passer, I think Crabtree will put up good numbers (especially if he can return to 100% from the Achilles). Opportunity equals fantasy production, and if he is being forced the ball, he should put up very nice FF numbers.

But he's not being forced the ball because Kaep bails too easily and would rather run than it than pass it. Also, Vernon Davis is the one being force-fed the ball, not Crabtree.

Kaep is young so he still has time to improve. We just haven't seen it this year. He's too much like a light Michael Vick.

What games have you been watching?

Until I ventured into this thread I never realized people were actually using Crabtree's performance this year against him. Amazing. Anything he gave this year was just a bonus but to read people on here you'd think people thought a guy coming back midseason from a torn achilles was for lack of a better word what he is as a player. Never thought people thought that way. He was a shell of himself this year, I thought that was fairly obvious. Got better as the season went on but still not himself. Looked to me to be taking on a similar recovery arc that Thomas took from his injury in which he started slowly when he returned and got better and Thomas has a few extra months recovery time. Literally shaking my head at anyone who wants to be down on Crabtree due to anything performance related this season.

 

[thecatch]

Maybe, maybe not. Even if Kaepernick does improve as a passer, I don't see Harbaugh changing SF's identity; and that is a running team. So, if Kaepernick gets better at reading D's and finding the open man, rather than forcing the ball to Crabtree, the "pie" may not increase enough to offset the production he'd get as the guy CK forces the ball to.

Perhaps. However, through the end of 2012 and the first 3 or so games of this season, we saw SF go with a much heavier emphasis on the pass as a result of Kaepernick having so much success through the air during much of 2012. If you go back and read what the beat writers were saying before this year, it was all about how Roman really wanted to open up the passing attack. It wasn't until Kaepernick got eaten alive in Weeks 2-3 that SF refocused on the heavy ground game. If Kaepernick proves capable of handling a greater load with his arm (or Roman gets more creative with his passing offense, which is another part of this problem), I think you'd see a lot more pass attempts from this offense.

Did we? Kaepernick threw 416 passes this year. If you factor in the games he started last year, his 3 playoff games, then the 1st 3 games of this season, he was on pace for 451 attempts over a 16 game season. That's the difference of two passes a game. That's not really a "much heavier emphasis."

If you only factor in the last two games of last year's regular season (2 of his 3 highest attempts/game), plus the 3 playoff games, plus the first 3 games this season, he was on pace for 476 attempts over a 16 game season. That's a little less than 4 more passes a game. Still not really a "much heavier emphasis."

The media can report what they want to report. Coaches can use coach-speak all they want. Bottom line is that SF is built to be a run-heavy offense. They have the O-line for it, they have the defense for it, and they have the coach who likes it.

If Kaepernick is averaging 500 (or less) attempts per season, AND he becomes more adept at reading D's & finding the open man, Crabtree will not put up great FF numbers.

Lets look at it another way. In Weeks 1-3 this year, SF passed 55% of the time and ran 45%. In Weeks 1-17 this year, SF passed 45% of the time and ran 55% of the time.

You can discount the beat writers' reports, but the initial playcalling ratio was very much consistent with the team's internal expectations going into the year. We had just seen Kaepernick come through with big passing performances in big games, including @ NE, @ATL, and in the Super Bowl. There was definitely a sense that the offense would let it fly more this year. Harbaugh certainly wants to be able to run the ball, and probably wouldn't have Mike McCarthy-like pass/run ratios even if he had Rodgers on his team, but I don't think we would see 55+% run calls in SF if they had more confidence in the passing game.

 

[Bayhawks]

Maybe, maybe not. Even if Kaepernick does improve as a passer, I don't see Harbaugh changing SF's identity; and that is a running team. So, if Kaepernick gets better at reading D's and finding the open man, rather than forcing the ball to Crabtree, the "pie" may not increase enough to offset the production he'd get as the guy CK forces the ball to.

Perhaps. However, through the end of 2012 and the first 3 or so games of this season, we saw SF go with a much heavier emphasis on the pass as a result of Kaepernick having so much success through the air during much of 2012. If you go back and read what the beat writers were saying before this year, it was all about how Roman really wanted to open up the passing attack. It wasn't until Kaepernick got eaten alive in Weeks 2-3 that SF refocused on the heavy ground game. If Kaepernick proves capable of handling a greater load with his arm (or Roman gets more creative with his passing offense, which is another part of this problem), I think you'd see a lot more pass attempts from this offense.

Did we? Kaepernick threw 416 passes this year. If you factor in the games he started last year, his 3 playoff games, then the 1st 3 games of this season, he was on pace for 451 attempts over a 16 game season. That's the difference of two passes a game. That's not really a "much heavier emphasis."

If you only factor in the last two games of last year's regular season (2 of his 3 highest attempts/game), plus the 3 playoff games, plus the first 3 games this season, he was on pace for 476 attempts over a 16 game season. That's a little less than 4 more passes a game. Still not really a "much heavier emphasis."

The media can report what they want to report. Coaches can use coach-speak all they want. Bottom line is that SF is built to be a run-heavy offense. They have the O-line for it, they have the defense for it, and they have the coach who likes it.

If Kaepernick is averaging 500 (or less) attempts per season, AND he becomes more adept at reading D's & finding the open man, Crabtree will not put up great FF numbers.

Lets look at it another way. In Weeks 1-3 this year, SF passed 55% of the time and ran 45%. In Weeks 1-17 this year, SF passed 45% of the time and ran 55% of the time.

You can discount the beat writers' reports, but the initial playcalling ratio was very much consistent with the team's internal expectations going into the year. We had just seen Kaepernick come through with big passing performances in big games, including @ NE, @ATL, and in the Super Bowl. There was definitely a sense that the offense would let it fly more this year. Harbaugh certainly wants to be able to run the ball, and probably wouldn't have Mike McCarthy-like pass/run ratios even if he had Rodgers on his team, but I don't think we would see 55+% run calls in SF if they had more confidence in the passing game.

Even if you take weeks 1-3 and extrapolate them over a full season, Kaepernick would have only attempted 501 passes.

Kaepernick had 192 attempts in his 7 starts last year. That extrapolates to 439 attempts over the course of a 16 game season.

So, based on the tiny sample size of the first 3 games of this season, (BTW, in those 3 games, SF was in a shootout where a combined 60+ points were scored, and they lost 2 games by 20+ points; often times those events will lead to higher pass attempts), SF had Kaepernick attempting less than 4 more passes/game than he attempted during his starting run in 2012. Again, that doesn't seem like a "much heavier emphasis on the pass."

Maybe you read that SF was going to do place a "much heavier emphasis on the pass," but the facts don't support it, no matter how much you try to parse the numbers to validate your belief.

 

[BaBastage]

i have him in dynasty. kaepernick likes him. the problem for him is that he's going to have four games where two of the NFLs best CBs - Peterson & Sherman - effectively shut him down. i think the 9ers will open up more offensively and, of the WRs on the roster, Crabtree stands to benefit the most.

To me, this is the most valuable insight in the thread so far.

We can speculate on whether the Alex Smith-years were and indicator of his ceiling, or we can speculate what Kaepernick's progression or regression as as passer will do to Crabtree's numbers.

But we do know that 25% of his games he's going up against elite cornerbacks. Until that changes, I see a solid WR2, who's going to have a few up games, and a few down games.

 

[Tool]

i have him in dynasty. kaepernick likes him. the problem for him is that he's going to have four games where two of the NFLs best CBs - Peterson & Sherman - effectively shut him down. i think the 9ers will open up more offensively and, of the WRs on the roster, Crabtree stands to benefit the most.

To me, this is the most valuable insight in the thread so far.

We can speculate on whether the Alex Smith-years were and indicator of his ceiling, or we can speculate what Kaepernick's progression or regression as as passer will do to Crabtree's numbers.

But we do know that 25% of his games he's going up against elite cornerbacks. Until that changes, I see a solid WR2, who's going to have a few up games, and a few down games.

This was in another thread, and i don't have the stats but he's dominated Peterson in their matchups.

 

[menobrown]

i have him in dynasty. kaepernick likes him. the problem for him is that he's going to have four games where two of the NFLs best CBs - Peterson & Sherman - effectively shut him down. i think the 9ers will open up more offensively and, of the WRs on the roster, Crabtree stands to benefit the most.

To me, this is the most valuable insight in the thread so far.

We can speculate on whether the Alex Smith-years were and indicator of his ceiling, or we can speculate what Kaepernick's progression or regression as as passer will do to Crabtree's numbers.

But we do know that 25% of his games he's going up against elite cornerbacks. Until that changes, I see a solid WR2, who's going to have a few up games, and a few down games.

This was in another thread, and i don't have the stats but he's dominated Peterson in their matchups.

I'd say good posting because I was just popping in to add the same thing. Peterson has not really been an issue.

 

[thecatch]

Maybe, maybe not. Even if Kaepernick does improve as a passer, I don't see Harbaugh changing SF's identity; and that is a running team. So, if Kaepernick gets better at reading D's and finding the open man, rather than forcing the ball to Crabtree, the "pie" may not increase enough to offset the production he'd get as the guy CK forces the ball to.

Perhaps. However, through the end of 2012 and the first 3 or so games of this season, we saw SF go with a much heavier emphasis on the pass as a result of Kaepernick having so much success through the air during much of 2012. If you go back and read what the beat writers were saying before this year, it was all about how Roman really wanted to open up the passing attack. It wasn't until Kaepernick got eaten alive in Weeks 2-3 that SF refocused on the heavy ground game. If Kaepernick proves capable of handling a greater load with his arm (or Roman gets more creative with his passing offense, which is another part of this problem), I think you'd see a lot more pass attempts from this offense.

Did we? Kaepernick threw 416 passes this year. If you factor in the games he started last year, his 3 playoff games, then the 1st 3 games of this season, he was on pace for 451 attempts over a 16 game season. That's the difference of two passes a game. That's not really a "much heavier emphasis."If you only factor in the last two games of last year's regular season (2 of his 3 highest attempts/game), plus the 3 playoff games, plus the first 3 games this season, he was on pace for 476 attempts over a 16 game season. That's a little less than 4 more passes a game. Still not really a "much heavier emphasis."

The media can report what they want to report. Coaches can use coach-speak all they want. Bottom line is that SF is built to be a run-heavy offense. They have the O-line for it, they have the defense for it, and they have the coach who likes it.

If Kaepernick is averaging 500 (or less) attempts per season, AND he becomes more adept at reading D's & finding the open man, Crabtree will not put up great FF numbers.

Lets look at it another way. In Weeks 1-3 this year, SF passed 55% of the time and ran 45%. In Weeks 1-17 this year, SF passed 45% of the time and ran 55% of the time.

You can discount the beat writers' reports, but the initial playcalling ratio was very much consistent with the team's internal expectations going into the year. We had just seen Kaepernick come through with big passing performances in big games, including @ NE, @ATL, and in the Super Bowl. There was definitely a sense that the offense would let it fly more this year. Harbaugh certainly wants to be able to run the ball, and probably wouldn't have Mike McCarthy-like pass/run ratios even if he had Rodgers on his team, but I don't think we would see 55+% run calls in SF if they had more confidence in the passing game.

Even if you take weeks 1-3 and extrapolate them over a full season, Kaepernick would have only attempted 501 passes. Kaepernick had 192 attempts in his 7 starts last year. That extrapolates to 439 attempts over the course of a 16 game season.

So, based on the tiny sample size of the first 3 games of this season, (BTW, in those 3 games, SF was in a shootout where a combined 60+ points were scored, and they lost 2 games by 20+ points; often times those events will lead to higher pass attempts), SF had Kaepernick attempting less than 4 more passes/game than he attempted during his starting run in 2012. Again, that doesn't seem like a "much heavier emphasis on the pass."

Maybe you read that SF was going to do place a "much heavier emphasis on the pass," but the facts don't support it, no matter how much you try to parse the numbers to validate your belief.

Parsing facts? I said they passed much more than usual in the first few weeks (yes, I realize this is inherently a small sample size). The play calling supports that and was consistent with the preseason narrative. Based on this, I think the coaching staff is flexible enough to adjust to the talents of its players. You've read too much into my post, apparently.

 

[Kenny Powers]

So it's a good question - where does he belong? In redraft, you're looking at a high upside player with a high enough floor I'd take him ahead of guys like Roddy or Fitz, but not quite in the range with Marshall and Julio. In dynasty, I think I have him slated a touch lower - mixed in with other high upside guys like T.Y. Hilton, DeSean Jackson and Keenan Allen. I'm sure people can make their case for any one of those guys as the best long term, which raises the point that he's a polarizing player, who might command a lot more in exit trade value than he's actually worth. I'm glad I looked him up because he's never really been high on my radar.

Good post Fred, but for as downplaying Crabtree as it felt, if youre putting him it this range it would seem youre pretty high on him.

 

[bostonfred]

So it's a good question - where does he belong? In redraft, you're looking at a high upside player with a high enough floor I'd take him ahead of guys like Roddy or Fitz, but not quite in the range with Marshall and Julio. In dynasty, I think I have him slated a touch lower - mixed in with other high upside guys like T.Y. Hilton, DeSean Jackson and Keenan Allen. I'm sure people can make their case for any one of those guys as the best long term, which raises the point that he's a polarizing player, who might command a lot more in exit trade value than he's actually worth. I'm glad I looked him up because he's never really been high on my radar.

Good post Fred, but for as downplaying Crabtree as it felt, if youre putting him it this range it would seem youre pretty high on him.

Thanks. I think you're the first person to actually read it. I started the post with this sentence. "I started this post wondering why people are so high on him". Then I went through the numbers, and realized that there was a reasonably strong upside case for him. I reiterated the downside case, but finished with "I'm glad I looked him up because he's never really been high on my radar". I was pretty low on him before I looked the stuff up, but I kind of came around on him. It's funny watching people quote me as proof of the exact opposite conclusion I came to.

There's a huge bucket of young receivers with high upside right now. Everyone has their favorites. Crabtree isn't my favorite, but he's got enough upside that he belongs in that bucket. In my mind, those are the guys you acquire in dynasty - the buy low sell high guys - when you're willing to take some risks because your team is already stocked, or because you're rebuilding and can't afford the top guys. If he's available at a reasonable price, I'd gladly take him as one of the guys in that bucket, because I don't see his upside as being that much better or worse than Hilton's or DJax's. They all have blemishes - Hilton might be a Marvin Harrison, or a Torrey Smith. If DJax remains the focal point of the Philly offense, that's great - if Chip Kelly's offense still works as well next year, and they don't have a better #2 than Riley Cooper, and so on. I'd love to acquire a bunch of guys in that bucket, and Crabtree fits the bill as a polarizing player with WR1 upside but substantial blemishes, who could be acquired cheap if the owner is selling low, and who could be flipped to another owner, because someone else might really love him. Those are the ideal types of player to flip, imo.

 

[Bayhawks]

Maybe, maybe not. Even if Kaepernick does improve as a passer, I don't see Harbaugh changing SF's identity; and that is a running team. So, if Kaepernick gets better at reading D's and finding the open man, rather than forcing the ball to Crabtree, the "pie" may not increase enough to offset the production he'd get as the guy CK forces the ball to.

Perhaps. However, through the end of 2012 and the first 3 or so games of this season, we saw SF go with a much heavier emphasis on the pass as a result of Kaepernick having so much success through the air during much of 2012. If you go back and read what the beat writers were saying before this year, it was all about how Roman really wanted to open up the passing attack. It wasn't until Kaepernick got eaten alive in Weeks 2-3 that SF refocused on the heavy ground game. If Kaepernick proves capable of handling a greater load with his arm (or Roman gets more creative with his passing offense, which is another part of this problem), I think you'd see a lot more pass attempts from this offense.

Did we? Kaepernick threw 416 passes this year. If you factor in the games he started last year, his 3 playoff games, then the 1st 3 games of this season, he was on pace for 451 attempts over a 16 game season. That's the difference of two passes a game. That's not really a "much heavier emphasis."If you only factor in the last two games of last year's regular season (2 of his 3 highest attempts/game), plus the 3 playoff games, plus the first 3 games this season, he was on pace for 476 attempts over a 16 game season. That's a little less than 4 more passes a game. Still not really a "much heavier emphasis."

The media can report what they want to report. Coaches can use coach-speak all they want. Bottom line is that SF is built to be a run-heavy offense. They have the O-line for it, they have the defense for it, and they have the coach who likes it.

If Kaepernick is averaging 500 (or less) attempts per season, AND he becomes more adept at reading D's & finding the open man, Crabtree will not put up great FF numbers.

Lets look at it another way. In Weeks 1-3 this year, SF passed 55% of the time and ran 45%. In Weeks 1-17 this year, SF passed 45% of the time and ran 55% of the time.

You can discount the beat writers' reports, but the initial playcalling ratio was very much consistent with the team's internal expectations going into the year. We had just seen Kaepernick come through with big passing performances in big games, including @ NE, @ATL, and in the Super Bowl. There was definitely a sense that the offense would let it fly more this year. Harbaugh certainly wants to be able to run the ball, and probably wouldn't have Mike McCarthy-like pass/run ratios even if he had Rodgers on his team, but I don't think we would see 55+% run calls in SF if they had more confidence in the passing game.

Even if you take weeks 1-3 and extrapolate them over a full season, Kaepernick would have only attempted 501 passes. Kaepernick had 192 attempts in his 7 starts last year. That extrapolates to 439 attempts over the course of a 16 game season.

So, based on the tiny sample size of the first 3 games of this season, (BTW, in those 3 games, SF was in a shootout where a combined 60+ points were scored, and they lost 2 games by 20+ points; often times those events will lead to higher pass attempts), SF had Kaepernick attempting less than 4 more passes/game than he attempted during his starting run in 2012. Again, that doesn't seem like a "much heavier emphasis on the pass."

Maybe you read that SF was going to do place a "much heavier emphasis on the pass," but the facts don't support it, no matter how much you try to parse the numbers to validate your belief.

Parsing facts? I said they passed much more than usual in the first few weeks (yes, I realize this is inherently a small sample size). The play calling supports that and was consistent with the preseason narrative. Based on this, I think the coaching staff is flexible enough to adjust to the talents of its players. You've read too much into my post, apparently.

You picked a tiny sample size. Why not 4 games (an even quarter of the season?) Why not 8 games (1/2 the season)? Because if you didn't pick such a small sample size, your argument would have been weaker. It just so happens that those 3 games were a shootout and 2 blowout losses-both situations where the QB will have more pass attempts than normal. Furthermore, even with the small, slanted sample you chose, SF passed the ball less than 4 times more than they averaged over Kaepernick's starts last year. That hardly supports the preseason narrative that there would be "much more emphasis" on the passing game.

You are selectively choosing what games you think are valid, and then drastically misinterpreting the data from those games. You can feel strongly about Crabtree without manipulating data to support your position.

 

[MAC_32]

Whether kaep has more pass attempts is irrelevant in regards to crabtree, he will get his regardless. Vernon is the more volatile stock, he should get more - a lot more. He is hurt by both the scheme and kaep. Without boldin maybe that will change next year.

 

[Bayhawks]

Whether kaep has more pass attempts is irrelevant in regards to crabtree, he will get his regardless. Vernon is the more volatile stock, he should get more - a lot more. He is hurt by both the scheme and kaep. Without boldin maybe that will change next year.

Again, that is kind of the point we've been discussing, and isn't necessarily true. IF (big IF) Kaepernick improves as a passer, he won't necessarily lock onto Crabtree as much as he has in the past. IF that happens, and SF maintains the offensive philosophy they've used since Harbaugh arrived, Crabtree won't "get his regardless;" he won't get enough targets to be a FF WR1.

 

[MAC_32]

Whether kaep has more pass attempts is irrelevant in regards to crabtree, he will get his regardless. Vernon is the more volatile stock, he should get more - a lot more. He is hurt by both the scheme and kaep. Without boldin maybe that will change next year.

Again, that is kind of the point we've been discussing, and isn't necessarily true. IF (big IF) Kaepernick improves as a passer, he won't necessarily lock onto Crabtree as much as he has in the past. IF that happens, and SF maintains the offensive philosophy they've used since Harbaugh arrived, Crabtree won't "get his regardless;" he won't get enough targets to be a FF WR1.

if he improves then his attempts increase and those targets go elsewhere. Crabtree will not be negatively impacted if his qb gets better.

 

[Bayhawks]

Whether kaep has more pass attempts is irrelevant in regards to crabtree, he will get his regardless. Vernon is the more volatile stock, he should get more - a lot more. He is hurt by both the scheme and kaep. Without boldin maybe that will change next year.

Again, that is kind of the point we've been discussing, and isn't necessarily true. IF (big IF) Kaepernick improves as a passer, he won't necessarily lock onto Crabtree as much as he has in the past. IF that happens, and SF maintains the offensive philosophy they've used since Harbaugh arrived, Crabtree won't "get his regardless;" he won't get enough targets to be a FF WR1.

if he improves then his attempts increase and those targets go elsewhere. Crabtree will not be negatively impacted if his qb gets better.

Yes he can. Even if SF does increase their attempts (which is by no means a given, based on Harbaugh's offensive philosophy at Stanford and in SF so far), he could still very easily be negatively impacted by Kaepernick improving as a passer.

In the 2012 games Kaepernick started, Crabtree was targeted on 35% of his attempts. When he returned in 2012, he was targeted on 29% of CK's attempts. This drop can be attributed to Crabtree not being 100% and/or Boldin asserting himself as the #1 in Crabtree's absence.

Assuming Crabtree re-asserts himself as the #1, and assuming Kaepernick doesn't improve as a passer (ie-continues to lock onto his #1 WR), and assuming SF increases their pass attempts to 500, Crabree would get 175 targets. Assuming Crabtree catches those passes at the same rate as he has the past 2 years, he'll have over 107 catches.

If you assume that Kaepernick gets better at reading D's and finding the open man, it would be reasonable to expect Crabtree's targets to drop to between 25%-30% of his total attempts (most top NFL WRs are in that range). If he gets 25% of 500 targets, that's 125 targets, which would equal 76 catches. If he gets 30% of the targets, that's 150 targets, and 91 catches.

So:

35% of the targets (no improvement by CK)=107 catches @13.4 ypc (his ypc with Kaep)=1434 yards.

30% of the targets (some improvement by CK)=91 catches @13.4 ypc= 1219 yards.

25% of the targets (significant improvement by CK)=76 catches @ 13.4 ypc= 1018 yards.

Now, that's obviously a simplistic example. Maybe if Kaep gets better, Crabtree will average a higher ypc. On the other hand, maybe Crabtree won't be quite as good as he was before the injury, and he won't average as high a ypc. We don't know. But, IF Kaepernick improves as a passer, it is very possible that Crabtree's targets will drop, and his FF production would likely drop as well.

So the statement "if he improves then his attempts increase and those targets go elsewhere. Crabtree will not be negatively impacted if his qb gets better" isn't necessarily true just because you say so.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Assuming no setbacks with him/Kaep between now & 2014 season:

PPR:

Top 15 guy

 

[drummer]

If the 49ers are still looking for a #1 WR, that should say more about Crabtree than parsing stats and theories.

 

[MAC_32]

If the 49ers are still looking for a #1 WR, that should say more about Crabtree than parsing stats and theories.

clear, concise, and on point. I think San Fran looks to improve the wr position in the draft, day two ish picks, complimentary pieces to the primary threats Davis and Crabtree.

 

[menobrown]

If the 49ers are still looking for a #1 WR, that should say more about Crabtree than parsing stats and theories.

clear, concise, and on point. I think San Fran looks to improve the wr position in the draft, day two ish picks, complimentary pieces to the primary threats Davis and Crabtree.

Not trying to be argue but I don't get the point myself.

For starters I don't see where the 49'ers have been looking to add a #1 WR. I see a team that's been looking to add WR's but then so do the Lions every year and it's not an indication of Calvin's value to the team.

When the Falcons gave up a ton to get Julio Jones I did not and have not ever taken that as an indication they did not feel like Roddy White was a #1 at the time.

If Crabtree was the greatest WR who ever lived it's still a position the 49'ers likely address this offseason. Primarily because Boldin is a FA, Crabtree is next season, Vernon is 30 and they have no proven options in the passing game other than these 3.

 

[drummer]

If the 49ers are still looking for a #1 WR, that should say more about Crabtree than parsing stats and theories.

clear, concise, and on point. I think San Fran looks to improve the wr position in the draft, day two ish picks, complimentary pieces to the primary threats Davis and Crabtree.

Not trying to be argue but I don't get the point myself.

For starters I don't see where the 49'ers have been looking to add a #1 WR. I see a team that's been looking to add WR's but then so do the Lions every year and it's not an indication of Calvin's value to the team.

When the Falcons gave up a ton to get Julio Jones I did not and have not ever taken that as an indication they did not feel like Roddy White was a #1 at the time.

If Crabtree was the greatest WR who ever lived it's still a position the 49'ers likely address this offseason. Primarily because Boldin is a FA, Crabtree is next season, Vernon is 30 and they have no proven options in the passing game other than these 3.

They drafted AJ Jenkins in the first round last year. They need speed and a dominant WR. They have Richard Sherman in the division too.

 

[menobrown]

If the 49ers are still looking for a #1 WR, that should say more about Crabtree than parsing stats and theories.

clear, concise, and on point. I think San Fran looks to improve the wr position in the draft, day two ish picks, complimentary pieces to the primary threats Davis and Crabtree.

Not trying to be argue but I don't get the point myself.

For starters I don't see where the 49'ers have been looking to add a #1 WR. I see a team that's been looking to add WR's but then so do the Lions every year and it's not an indication of Calvin's value to the team.

When the Falcons gave up a ton to get Julio Jones I did not and have not ever taken that as an indication they did not feel like Roddy White was a #1 at the time.

If Crabtree was the greatest WR who ever lived it's still a position the 49'ers likely address this offseason. Primarily because Boldin is a FA, Crabtree is next season, Vernon is 30 and they have no proven options in the passing game other than these 3.

They drafted AJ Jenkins in the first round last year. They need speed and a dominant WR. They have Richard Sherman in the division too.

Sorry, still not seeing your point. They need WR's. I've yet to see any transaction they've done that suggest negatively on how they view Crabtree.

Again as I mentioned with the Lions. Since Calvin has been there they signed Burleson to a nice sized initial contract and spent decent picks on Titus and Broyles both picks relatively close to where the 49'ers selected Jenkins. By your rational, if I'm following it, would mean the Lions are continually trying to find a #1 WR. Of course we know they aren't, they are trying to find complements to go with Calvin. I mean you do need more than one WR.

 

[5Rings]

People pulling up his old numbers before Kaepernick took over is a waste of time. I don't care what he did pre-CK. The next WR I see putting up big numbers with Alex Smith at QB will be the first.

In 2012 when he was healthy and CK was raw as he could be was putting up top 10 numbers. That's what matters to me.

I don't care what his numbers were this year. They were not bad and better than I expected but he was nothing close to looking 100%.

He'll be a top 10 WR next year in PPR leagues next year and for the next few years of his career so long as he remains healthy.

People pulling up his old numbers pre-Achilles injury and before CK had time to become a better QB is a waste of time. Seriously, you're basing your expectations on Kaepernick not growing as a passer. That stretch in 2012/2013, Crabtree seemed to be CK's #1 read, and he locked onto him. IF CK becomes a better QB (reading defenses, going through his progressions, finding the open man, etc), Crabtree may not get as much love as he did during that stretch. Also, IF Crabtree never gets back to his pre-injury form, that changes things as well. Will he be as productive if his new 100% is only 90% of what he once was?

We don't know-and neither do you. So looking at that hot stretch, and ignoring other variables is almost as pointless as looking at what Crabtree did with A Smith as his QB.

If Kaepernick grows as a passer, there will be a much bigger receiving pie to split. Crabtree would have a smaller slice, but could very well put up 2012 numbers.

Crabtree's long term future is difficult to forecast with his impending free agency. I think he's a top flight #2 WR, and I get the sense the Niners probably agree, but he will almost certainly want #1 WR money (the fact that he hasn't been extended already seems to be indicative of such a gap). SF won't be able to afford that kind of cap hit for him. Whether he ends up staying with Kaepernick will likely depend on whether he can convince some other team that he's worth a Mike Wallace type deal.

Kaepernick showed no growth as a passer this year. He still doesn't go through his progressions, and is quick to bail out of the pocket. He still lacks finesse on the ball and just tries to rocket everything to his receivers. He may improve a little bit, but I think Kaep is what he is for the most part... A roller coaster that will kill his team with stupid mistakes/bad throws/ball security or the guy who plays the Packers and you start to think HOF.

Yes, that's certainly all Kaepernick is and ever will be.

Unfortunately for you, that's not relevant to the discussion you quoted. If Kaepernick doesn't grow as a passer, and Crabtree is still on the roster, Crabtree owners can continue to look forward to Kaepernick locking onto him and he will continue to have 2012 upside.

If Kaepernick doesn't improve as a passer, I think Crabtree will put up good numbers (especially if he can return to 100% from the Achilles). Opportunity equals fantasy production, and if he is being forced the ball, he should put up very nice FF numbers.

But he's not being forced the ball because Kaep bails too easily and would rather run than it than pass it. Also, Vernon Davis is the one being force-fed the ball, not Crabtree.

Kaep is young so he still has time to improve. We just haven't seen it this year. He's too much like a light Michael Vick.

Terrible posting. I don't think you watched a 49er game this year. I hate posting from iPad.

 

[drummer]

Sorry, still not seeing your point. They need WR's. I've yet to see any transaction they've done that suggest negatively on how they view Crabtree.

Again as I mentioned with the Lions. Since Calvin has been there they signed Burleson to a nice sized initial contract and spent decent picks on Titus and Broyles both picks relatively close to where the 49'ers selected Jenkins. By your rational, if I'm following it, would mean the Lions are continually trying to find a #1 WR. Of course we know they aren't, they are trying to find complements to go with Calvin. I mean you do need more than one WR.

Who said they negatively view Crabtree? Everybody in the Bay Area media says they have failed to develop WR's since Crabtree was drafted in the first round and need more weapons for Kaep. Crabs is also up for a contract extension since I believe his contract is up in 2014. So there is a need for finding a #1 WR either in the draft or FA, since Crabs may be looking to get a huge deal.

Baalke drafting Jenkins was a dumb move at where he was picked, though I think he will try to find one this draft to make up for it. Crabs is not a Larry Fitzgerald. He needs more open space to make plays. He certainly didn't present a match up problem against Sherman this last game. They need to find a WR with size and speed that possibly can.

The Lions have nothing to do with this either. I understand the point you're trying to make, but the 49ers aren't the Lions.

 

[menobrown]

Sorry, still not seeing your point. They need WR's. I've yet to see any transaction they've done that suggest negatively on how they view Crabtree.

Again as I mentioned with the Lions. Since Calvin has been there they signed Burleson to a nice sized initial contract and spent decent picks on Titus and Broyles both picks relatively close to where the 49'ers selected Jenkins. By your rational, if I'm following it, would mean the Lions are continually trying to find a #1 WR. Of course we know they aren't, they are trying to find complements to go with Calvin. I mean you do need more than one WR.

Who said they negatively view Crabtree? Everybody in the Bay Area media says they have failed to develop WR's since Crabtree was drafted in the first round and need more weapons for Kaep. Crabs is also up for a contract extension since I believe his contract is up in 2014. So there is a need for finding a #1 WR either in the draft or FA, since Crabs may be looking to get a huge deal.

Baalke drafting Jenkins was a dumb move at where he was picked, though I think he will try to find one this draft to make up for it. Crabs is not a Larry Fitzgerald. He needs more open space to make plays. He certainly didn't present a match up problem against Sherman this last game. They need to find a WR with size and speed that possibly can.

The Lions have nothing to do with this either. I understand the point you're trying to make, but the 49ers aren't the Lions.

You are backtracking.

You said: If the 49ers are still looking for a #1 WR, that should say more about Crabtree than parsing stats and theories.

Those are your words, not mine. Almost everything in your post above is an attempt to backtrack from that stance. Everything except the Lions part which I was using to show you an example of why your stance was not one making any sense to me. I guess you get it now, thus the backtrack.

 

[drummer]

Sorry, still not seeing your point. They need WR's. I've yet to see any transaction they've done that suggest negatively on how they view Crabtree.

Again as I mentioned with the Lions. Since Calvin has been there they signed Burleson to a nice sized initial contract and spent decent picks on Titus and Broyles both picks relatively close to where the 49'ers selected Jenkins. By your rational, if I'm following it, would mean the Lions are continually trying to find a #1 WR. Of course we know they aren't, they are trying to find complements to go with Calvin. I mean you do need more than one WR.

Who said they negatively view Crabtree? Everybody in the Bay Area media says they have failed to develop WR's since Crabtree was drafted in the first round and need more weapons for Kaep. Crabs is also up for a contract extension since I believe his contract is up in 2014. So there is a need for finding a #1 WR either in the draft or FA, since Crabs may be looking to get a huge deal.

Baalke drafting Jenkins was a dumb move at where he was picked, though I think he will try to find one this draft to make up for it. Crabs is not a Larry Fitzgerald. He needs more open space to make plays. He certainly didn't present a match up problem against Sherman this last game. They need to find a WR with size and speed that possibly can.

The Lions have nothing to do with this either. I understand the point you're trying to make, but the 49ers aren't the Lions.

You are backtracking.

You said: If the 49ers are still looking for a #1 WR, that should say more about Crabtree than parsing stats and theories.

Those are your words, not mine. Almost everything in your post above is an attempt to backtrack from that stance. Everything except the Lions part which I was using to show you an example of why your stance was not one making any sense to me. I guess you get it now, thus the backtrack.

. Now you're talking outta your rear end. I tossed aside your whole "Not trying to be argue but I don't get the point myself" to your Lions rant and now find you grasping at the fruit.

Other posters in this thread think he's a #2 WR as well. I share the same opinion. It will come down to his contract to then see if the 49ers think he is a #1. But they also see that they need size and speed as well, which Crabs doesn't have. Hell, he held out his rookie season too. If you're a Crabs guy, fine. Stop trying to "not argue" with shoehorning the Lions into this and then get pissy when called on it.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Michael Crabtree missed Wednesday's practice with a calf injury.

I wonder if it's an injury to the same leg in which he tore his achilles since the achilles connects the calf to the heel. Bad news either way, as even a grade I calf strain typically takes 7-10 days to heal.

EDIT: Before the 2012 preseason it seemed he suffered the same injury and missed 7 consecutive practices. If I had to guess, he's going to be questionable and possibly a GTD for the opener.

 

[cstu]

Michael Crabtree missed Wednesday's practice with a calf injury.

I wonder if it's an injury to the same leg in which he tore his achilles since the achilles connects the calf to the heel. Bad news either way, as even a grade I calf strain typically takes 7-10 days to heal.

Might make Boldin a good play.