Matt Ryan (1 Viewer)

[Black&Gold]

Now that I've aquired Ryan in both of my dynasty leagues, I'm going to express my excitement for his projections going foward. I keep seeing him around 8-12 in the QB rankings. Even in dynasty rankings. At the worst, I see him as a top 6 QB going foward with a sharp dropoff after him. Rodgers, Newton, and Stafford are there in dynasty/redraft and Brady/Brees in redraft. I don't think I'd trade Ryan for anyone other than Stafford or Rodgers in dynasty. Why?

Check out his stats weeks 9-16 last year. He was the 6th best QB in that time span. Week 17, he was rested. Julio Jones was just starting to come in his own. He and Roddy White are the best 1-2 punch in the NFL. Turner isn't going to be getting 350 carries anytime soon. The RBs behind him are made for the passing game. This ATL passing game is going become elite this season. ATL knows that they are going to have to keep up with the GB/NY/DAL passing units. Look out. They didn't give up 3 drafts for Julio Jones for nothing.

 

[Buck Stop]

I agree there isn't the huge drop off that many say after the usual top guys and Ryan. Playing in a dome, pass happy offense, several great weapons, there isn't much NOT to like.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I agree. I think Atlanta is quickly transitioning to a pass heavy offense and I think Ryan has the ability to make the most of that.

 

[Zimm]

Now that I've aquired Ryan in both of my dynasty leagues, I'm going to express my excitement for his projections going foward. I keep seeing him around 8-12 in the QB rankings. Even in dynasty rankings. At the worst, I see him as a top 6 QB going foward with a sharp dropoff after him. Rodgers, Newton, and Stafford are there in dynasty/redraft and Brady/Brees in redraft. I don't think I'd trade Ryan for anyone other than Stafford or Rodgers in dynasty. Why?Check out his stats weeks 9-16 last year. He was the 6th best QB in that time span. Week 17, he was rested. Julio Jones was just starting to come in his own. He and Roddy White are the best 1-2 punch in the NFL. Turner isn't going to be getting 350 carries anytime soon. The RBs behind him are made for the passing game. This ATL passing game is going become elite this season. ATL knows that they are going to have to keep up with the GB/NY/DAL passing units. Look out. They didn't give up 3 drafts for Julio Jones for nothing.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Don't think hes that overlooked. New auction 32 team dynasty he was the 4th highest priced qb

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

The thing I worry about with Ryan is how he plays in the playoffs/big games.

2008 @ Arizona 72.8 QB rating

2010 vs GB 69 QB rating

2011 @ NYG 71.7 QB rating

His YPA is also concerning. He ranked 15th overall last year for all QBs.

Matt Ryan's career YPA 7.04

Phillip Rivers is 8.00

ETA: Second half of the year stats you remarked about. 12 TD passes vs Tampa Bay/Carolina/Jags/Minny(107 pass attempts). 3 TD passes vs NO/Houston/Tennessee(131 pass attempts).

 

[bigmarc27]

The thing I worry about with Ryan is how he plays in the playoffs/big games.2008 @ Arizona 72.8 QB rating2010 vs GB 69 QB rating2011 @ NYG 71.7 QB ratingHis YPA is also concerning. He ranked 15th overall last year for all QBs.Matt Ryan's career YPA 7.04Phillip Rivers is 8.00

Your fantasy leagues give points for performance in playoff games? Mularkey's offense had no identity the past couple of years - it was dink and dunk down the field and plodded along. Check his numbers when Julio was healthy for the last half of 2011 though and they're pretty nice.

 

[Fiddles]

He's using the shake weight this offseason.

 

[Shutout]

I like him a lot but with that being said, in terms of FF players, I would still draft guys like Rivers, Eli, Romo, and probably Big Ben over him. The Falcons waffle a lot and don't have the defense to put pressure on the QB like they need to in order to make those extra opportunities that the great teams take advantage of. All the guys listed above (and all the consensus elites) DO.

I know there will be big games from Ryan. But there will also be those Joe flacco-like games. So I like the other guys better because it seems no matter how a game unfolds, at the end of the day, those guys get their points.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

The thing I worry about with Ryan is how he plays in the playoffs/big games.2008 @ Arizona 72.8 QB rating2010 vs GB 69 QB rating2011 @ NYG 71.7 QB ratingHis YPA is also concerning. He ranked 15th overall last year for all QBs.Matt Ryan's career YPA 7.04Phillip Rivers is 8.00

Your fantasy leagues give points for performance in playoff games? Mularkey's offense had no identity the past couple of years - it was dink and dunk down the field and plodded along. Check his numbers when Julio was healthy for the last half of 2011 though and they're pretty nice.

Matt Ryan has to step up in big games before he enters my "elite" QB tier. Until then he will have a good game here and another there.Based on his YPA/big games/etc it doesn't look like he will be an elite guy.After Rodgers/Newton/Stafford/Brady/Brees it is a drop off of 4 Fantasy PPG to QB6. From QB6 to QB17(Josh Freeman) is only 4 PPG. Meaning you can mix and match 12 different QBs into your lineup and rarely miss a beat.

 

[Faust]

Cosell Talks: Michael Vick / Matt Ryan

 

[FreeBaGeL]

After Rodgers/Newton/Stafford/Brady/Brees it is a drop off of 4 Fantasy PPG to QB6. From QB6 to QB17(Josh Freeman) is only 4 PPG. Meaning you can mix and match 12 different QBs into your lineup and rarely miss a beat.

You're acting like 4ppg is a negligible amount. It's not.That was the difference between Jimmy Graham and Tony Gonzalez last year. It was the difference between Jason Witten and Kellen Davis. Between Ray Rice and Kevin Smith, Steven Jackson and LaGarrette Blount, Chris Johnson and Dexter McCluster, Larry Fitzgerald and Lance Moore, Greg Jennings and Jabar Gaffney.How much is it worth to you to have Ray Rice instead of Kevin Smith? Larry Fitzgerald instead of Lance Moore?4ppg is a lot in fantasy football.

 

[rizzler]

He's using the shake weight this offseason.

his teammates will be pumped!

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

After Rodgers/Newton/Stafford/Brady/Brees it is a drop off of 4 Fantasy PPG to QB6. From QB6 to QB17(Josh Freeman) is only 4 PPG. Meaning you can mix and match 12 different QBs into your lineup and rarely miss a beat.

You're acting like 4ppg is a negligible amount. It's not.That was the difference between Jimmy Graham and Tony Gonzalez last year. It was the difference between Jason Witten and Kellen Davis. Between Ray Rice and Kevin Smith, Steven Jackson and LaGarrette Blount, Chris Johnson and Dexter McCluster, Larry Fitzgerald and Lance Moore, Greg Jennings and Jabar Gaffney.How much is it worth to you to have Ray Rice instead of Kevin Smith? Larry Fitzgerald instead of Lance Moore?4ppg is a lot in fantasy football.

I don't disagree that it's a large amount. However, in a 12 team league only 12 QBs need to start each week. The top 5 QB's were all over 25.4 PPG. Then a big drop off and Eli came it as QB6 at 21.3 PPG...QB 17 Josh Freeman at 17.3 PPG. My point is you can get two QBs and play matchups...or hope that Matt Ryan will jump up to the elite category. In which case he would need to start putting up many more FF points.QB6-QB10 is a 1.5 difference. I just don't see Matt Ryan jumping up and making himself separate from this lower FF starting QB tier.

 

[MAC_32]

I see the transformation as far as personnel around him, but I haven't seen it translated to the field.

I'm not actively pursuing him in my two dynasty's (Rivers + RG3, Romo + Bradford + Luck respectively), but he remains on my value QB target list if I don't get one of the elite's. I feel similarly as last year, I don't think he will but Atlanta is setting him to have the opportunity to do it. There's value in that. At the very least, he'll at least be alright.

 

[The_Man]

Let's play guess the QB.

QB 1 career stats

64 games

1190-1958, 60.8 completion percentage, 13,816 yards, 80 TDs, 46 INTs, 86.0 rating

QB 2 career stats

62 games

1232-2022, 60.9 completion percentage, 14,238 yards, 95 TDs, 46 INT, 88.4 rating

Spoiler

QB 1: Joe Flacco

QB 2: Matt Ryan

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think he is overhyped but that said grabbing him at the 4.02 in a 16 team/SSL felt like a good time to grab him. 38th player off the board feels about right. I'm not sold that Ryan is a great QB but he has weapons of mass destruction to chuck it around to so in that sense I feel like he's a shoe in for top10. Atlants wants desperately to make a Super Bowl run and with new Orleans in disarray, Carolina still putting itself together, same with the Bucs, now is the time.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Let's play guess the QB.

QB 1 career stats

64 games

1190-1958, 60.8 completion percentage, 13,816 yards, 80 TDs, 46 INTs, 86.0 rating

QB 2 career stats

62 games

1232-2022, 60.9 completion percentage, 14,238 yards, 95 TDs, 46 INT, 88.4 rating

Spoiler

QB 1: Joe Flacco

QB 2: Matt Ryan

Well, that's interesting.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I think he is overhyped but that said grabbing him at the 4.02 in a 16 team/SSL felt like a good time to grab him. 38th player off the board feels about right. I'm not sold that Ryan is a great QB but he has weapons of mass destruction to chuck it around to so in that sense I feel like he's a shoe in for top10. Atlants wants desperately to make a Super Bowl run and with new Orleans in disarray, Carolina still putting itself together, same with the Bucs, now is the time.

Two new coordinators and 0-3 in the playoffs doesn't look good either. Actually Atlanta might be the team primed for decline.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Let's play guess the QB.

QB 1 career stats

64 games

1190-1958, 60.8 completion percentage, 13,816 yards, 80 TDs, 46 INTs, 86.0 rating

QB 2 career stats

62 games

1232-2022, 60.9 completion percentage, 14,238 yards, 95 TDs, 46 INT, 88.4 rating

Spoiler

QB 1: Joe Flacco

QB 2: Matt Ryan

Well, that's interesting.They put up similar numbers when both of their offenses were operating from a run-first philosophy. The difference is that when each of their team's tried to put more of the game in the hands of their QB, Matty Ice took hold of it and continued to improve while Flacco flubbed it and regressed badly.

 

[The_Man]

Let's play guess the QB.

QB 1 career stats

64 games

1190-1958, 60.8 completion percentage, 13,816 yards, 80 TDs, 46 INTs, 86.0 rating

QB 2 career stats

62 games

1232-2022, 60.9 completion percentage, 14,238 yards, 95 TDs, 46 INT, 88.4 rating

Spoiler

QB 1: Joe Flacco

QB 2: Matt Ryan

Spoiler

Well, that's interesting.

They put up similar numbers when both of their offenses were operating from a run-first philosophy. The difference is that when each of their team's tried to put more of the game in the hands of their QB, Matty Ice took hold of it and continued to improve while Flacco flubbed it and regressed badly.Maybe - also, the Ravens played 12 games vs. Top 10 defenses last year. That's just what happens when you're in the AFC North. From a fantasy standpoint, I think Ryan is better, but that he's actually overhyped and that Flacco is a better value.

 

[solorca]

I recently drafted him as my QB2 in a start 2 QB league, ahead of Philip Rivers and Tony Romo, but behind Luck, Eli, RGIII and the obvious five (Rodgers, Newton, Stafford, Brees, Brady). I think that's a fair spot, as the eighth or ninth guy off the board.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Another game of guess the QB..

QB1 2011 stats

543 attempts

56.7 completion percentage, 3,474 yards, 26 TDs, 18 INT, 78.2 rating

QB2 2011 stats

542 attempts

57.6 completion percentage, 3,610 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INT, 80.9 rating

Spoiler

QB1: Mark Sanchez

QB2: Joe Flacco

We can bend these any way we want. I wouldn't say that Flacco is in any way better value because he put up similar numbers to Ryan several years ago when they were both game managers. When asked to be more than that Ryan has stepped up to the plate and looks poised to take the next step while Flacco has gone backwards and whined about it in interviews.

It's not like Ryan is expensive. I'll take the guy who looks like he actually has a shot at being elite in the 7th round over a guy that seems to have very little chance in the 10th. It's not like we're debating over who is better value if they both put up a QB12-15 season next year. At that point it's irrelevant because they're both a waste. Ryan is better value even a few rounds earlier because he's actually trending towards the top 5 while Flacco is trending further and further away from it (not that he was ever close in the first place).

 

[David Yudkin]

I can't say that Ryan reallys wows me. IMO, he is at best an ok fantasy option, but not one that will give you a scoring advantage against your competitors (at least he hasn't so far in his career). I would say he is startable, but not a difference maker. Based on PPG, over the past 2 seasons he ranks as the #12 fantasy QB. But he's 7 PPG worse than Rogers and 5 PPG worse than 5 other QBs in that time. If your team is STACKED everywhere else, he might not hurt you, but if your team has some weaknesses, he is not going to help you make up for your lack of scoring elsewhere.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I can't say that Ryan reallys wows me. IMO, he is at best an ok fantasy option, but not one that will give you a scoring advantage against your competitors (at least he hasn't so far in his career). I would say he is startable, but not a difference maker. Based on PPG, over the past 2 seasons he ranks as the #12 fantasy QB. But he's 7 PPG worse than Rogers and 5 PPG worse than 5 other QBs in that time. If your team is STACKED everywhere else, he might not hurt you, but if your team has some weaknesses, he is not going to help you make up for your lack of scoring elsewhere.

Errr, no one is arguing any differently about what he has done (the guy's best finish is QB9, afterall), but rather what his likelihood of being the next guy to step into the elite tier is.

 

[lbouchard]

I think there's a large dropoff from the elite tier to him. Plus, unless I was in win-now mode, I would rather have Luck and RG3, because I think their floors ate Ryan. I also would disagree about Julio and Roddy being best 1-2 punch in NFL (Giants), but that might just be me

 

[FreeBaGeL]

FWIW, Matt Ryan's second half of last season projects out to 4800/36 over 16 games.

I know that often means very little, but Atlanta really started winging the ball around at in the back half of last season, averaging 38 attempts/game.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Koetter is the new OC - (despite the personnel, White, Jones, Douglas) do you really see the Falcons throwing the ball that much again this year?

It looks like they're heading to a recommitment to the run, emphasizing ball control + defense under Nolan, to me.

 

[Faust]

Let's play guess the QB.

QB 1 career stats

64 games

1190-1958, 60.8 completion percentage, 13,816 yards, 80 TDs, 46 INTs, 86.0 rating

QB 2 career stats

62 games

1232-2022, 60.9 completion percentage, 14,238 yards, 95 TDs, 46 INT, 88.4 rating

Spoiler

QB 1: Joe Flacco

QB 2: Matt Ryan

Spoiler

Well, that's interesting.

Spoiler

They put up similar numbers when both of their offenses were operating from a run-first philosophy. The difference is that when each of their team's tried to put more of the game in the hands of their QB, Matty Ice took hold of it and continued to improve while Flacco flubbed it and regressed badly.

Maybe - also, the Ravens played 12 games vs. Top 10 defenses last year. That's just what happens when you're in the AFC North. From a fantasy standpoint, I think Ryan is better, but that he's actually overhyped and that Flacco is a better value.With 2 fewer games under his belt Ryan threw for almost 19% more TDs

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Let's play guess the QB.

QB 1 career stats

64 games

1190-1958, 60.8 completion percentage, 13,816 yards, 80 TDs, 46 INTs, 86.0 rating

QB 2 career stats

62 games

1232-2022, 60.9 completion percentage, 14,238 yards, 95 TDs, 46 INT, 88.4 rating

Spoiler

QB 1: Joe Flacco

QB 2: Matt Ryan

Spoiler

Well, that's interesting.

Spoiler

They put up similar numbers when both of their offenses were operating from a run-first philosophy. The difference is that when each of their team's tried to put more of the game in the hands of their QB, Matty Ice took hold of it and continued to improve while Flacco flubbed it and regressed badly.

Spoiler

Maybe - also, the Ravens played 12 games vs. Top 10 defenses last year. That's just what happens when you're in the AFC North. From a fantasy standpoint, I think Ryan is better, but that he's actually overhyped and that Flacco is a better value.

With 2 fewer games under his belt Ryan threw for almost 19% more TDs

Funny how Flacco gets thrown in as some mid-range barometer.Ryan TD's vs Saints (10), Panthers (12) & Bucs (8): 30

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RyanMa00/touchdowns/passing/

Flacco TD's vs Steelers (10), Browns (10) and Bengals (7): 27

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FlacJo00/touchdowns/passing/

I would have bet a whole lot of donuts that Ryan had thrown for 50% more TD's vs the Saints than Flacco vs the Steelers, guess not.

I also would have guessed Ryan had more TD's over 30 yards - wrong.

13 of the 15 TD spread comes in TD passes of 3 or fewer yards, Ryan has 17 in his career, Flacco 4. I'm not sure what that means but it might mean that the Ravens are just a heck of a lot better running it in from the goalline or more willing to try.

 

[texasbirdfan]

I like him a lot but with that being said, in terms of FF players, I would still draft guys like Rivers, Eli, Romo, and probably Big Ben over him. The Falcons waffle a lot and don't have the defense to put pressure on the QB like they need to in order to make those extra opportunities that the great teams take advantage of. All the guys listed above (and all the consensus elites) DO.

I know there will be big games from Ryan. But there will also be those Joe flacco-like games. So I like the other guys better because it seems no matter how a game unfolds, at the end of the day, those guys get their points.

Don't look away too quick at the new Falcon D has a new real coordinator now in Nolan and 3 solid cbs. The predictability of the O & D coordinators is GONE and most of the team returns in tact.

 

[texasbirdfan]

Koetter is the new OC - (despite the personnel, White, Jones, Douglas) do you really see the Falcons throwing the ball that much again this year?

It looks like they're heading to a recommitment to the run, emphasizing ball control + defense under Nolan, to me.

Koetter is a vertical passing game guy and Smith's old philosophy of run first didn't fool anybody. The old coordinators were so predictable the last 2 seasons you could call the plays in your armchair before each snap....

 

[ZWK]

Let's play guess the QB.

QB 1 career stats

64 games

1190-1958, 60.8 completion percentage, 13,816 yards, 80 TDs, 46 INTs, 86.0 rating

QB 2 career stats

62 games

1232-2022, 60.9 completion percentage, 14,238 yards, 95 TDs, 46 INT, 88.4 rating

Spoiler

QB 1: Joe Flacco

QB 2: Matt Ryan

Spoiler

Well, that's interesting.

Spoiler

They put up similar numbers when both of their offenses were operating from a run-first philosophy. The difference is that when each of their team's tried to put more of the game in the hands of their QB, Matty Ice took hold of it and continued to improve while Flacco flubbed it and regressed badly.

Spoiler

Maybe - also, the Ravens played 12 games vs. Top 10 defenses last year. That's just what happens when you're in the AFC North. From a fantasy standpoint, I think Ryan is better, but that he's actually overhyped and that Flacco is a better value.

Spoiler

With 2 fewer games under his belt Ryan threw for almost 19% more TDs

Funny how Flacco gets thrown in as some mid-range barometer.Ryan TD's vs Saints (10), Panthers (12) & Bucs (8): 30

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RyanMa00/touchdowns/passing/

Flacco TD's vs Steelers (10), Browns (10) and Bengals (7): 27

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FlacJo00/touchdowns/passing/

I would have bet a whole lot of donuts that Ryan had thrown for 50% more TD's vs the Saints than Flacco vs the Steelers, guess not.

I also would have guessed Ryan had more TD's over 30 yards - wrong.

13 of the 15 TD spread comes in TD passes of 3 or fewer yards, Ryan has 17 in his career, Flacco 4. I'm not sure what that means but it might mean that the Ravens are just a heck of a lot better running it in from the goalline or more willing to try.

A big part of it is that Ryan is just better at those passes. I fired up the Data Dominator (free over the offseason), and during his career, Ryan has thrown a touchdown on 56% of his passes from the opponent's 5 or closer (30/54), which is 3rd best out of the 33 QBs who had at least 25 attempts during those 4 years. Flacco has a TD on only 29% of his passes from that range (8/28), which puts him in the bottom 5 out of the 33.

 

[Black&Gold]

FWIW, Matt Ryan's second half of last season projects out to 4800/36 over 16 games.I know that often means very little, but Atlanta really started winging the ball around at in the back half of last season, averaging 38 attempts/game.

This is my point. Everyone can tell what Ryan has done so far in the NFL. You can look at a lot of great QBs that started out as "game mangagers". They earn the trust of the coaches and start putting up stats. Weeks 9 (after the bye) through week 16 shows me enough. He is 6th in APG over that span. The top 6 average between 24-27 points. The 7th averaged 21. Jones is an elite talent and the Falcons showed me that they aren't going to be a run first team anymore. There have been many QBs over the years with great stats that may not have had the top notch talent (although I think Ryan does).