Mark Wimer's Chad Johnson ranking - outlier (1 Viewer)

[Lott's Fingertip]

Chad Johnson is ranked between 8 and 26 by the 12 other FBGs that have posted their rankings in the last 11 days.

Mark has him at 48. That is quite a difference, and it would be interesting to hear his explanation.

I personally think that is way too low, but I like hearing an intelligent person's contrarian viewpoint.

What gives?

ETA: this is a redraft ranking.

 

[puckalicious]

Chad Johnson was WR50 last year on a dismally bad team w/o Palmer, and he was injured and missed 3 games. Assuming Palmer is healthy all year I can't even begin to explain how big of a bargain he is at that ranking.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Chad Johnson was WR50 last year on a dismally bad team w/o Palmer, and he was injured and missed 3 games. Assuming Palmer is healthy all year I can't even begin to explain how big of a bargain he is at that ranking.

For me personally, that's the sticking point. He hasn't thrown a pass (that I know of) since being diagnosed with a frayed ligament in his throwing shoulder which he elected NOT to have surgery on. Last year if you prorate his starts, he was on pace to take 44 sacks - well above his previous career high. We know going in he has 4 games against the Ravens and Steelers. I know you can't predict injury but when you line up the circumstantial evidence it begins looking like bad juju for Palmer to predict health!

 

[puckalicious]

Chad Johnson was WR50 last year on a dismally bad team w/o Palmer, and he was injured and missed 3 games. Assuming Palmer is healthy all year I can't even begin to explain how big of a bargain he is at that ranking.

For me personally, that's the sticking point. He hasn't thrown a pass (that I know of) since being diagnosed with a frayed ligament in his throwing shoulder which he elected NOT to have surgery on. Last year if you prorate his starts, he was on pace to take 44 sacks - well above his previous career high. We know going in he has 4 games against the Ravens and Steelers. I know you can't predict injury but when you line up the circumstantial evidence it begins looking like bad juju for Palmer to predict health!

It's pretty well known that Palmer's been throwing since January or so, but we won't know what kind of strength he has on his throws probably until training camp.

 

[Banger]

I had a similar discussion with Wimer with respect to his #7 Housh ranking. Couple the Housh ranking with his CJ ranking I can only assume that he thinks Housh made CJ the player he was while I happen to think the opposite.

 

[travdogg]

The whole WR rankings seemed like an outlier to me. Which is nice, but I would like to hear some explanations as well.

1. Ocho being 48th is a big one

2. Brandon Marshall being 33rd(10 behind Ginn and 20 behind Royal? )

3. Neither Chargers WR in the top-50.

4. I'm a huge Reggie Wayne fan, but 2nd?

5. Housh at 7 seems high, he was never 7th in Cincy.

 

[Avery]

Chad Johnson was WR50 last year on a dismally bad team w/o Palmer, and he was injured and missed 3 games. Assuming Palmer is healthy all year I can't even begin to explain how big of a bargain he is at that ranking.

For me personally, that's the sticking point. He hasn't thrown a pass (that I know of) since being diagnosed with a frayed ligament in his throwing shoulder which he elected NOT to have surgery on. Last year if you prorate his starts, he was on pace to take 44 sacks - well above his previous career high. We know going in he has 4 games against the Ravens and Steelers. I know you can't predict injury but when you line up the circumstantial evidence it begins looking like bad juju for Palmer to predict health!

Some valid points however, if Chad goes anywhere in the 40s, the risk is very minimal.

 

[puckalicious]

The whole WR rankings seemed like an outlier to me. Which is nice, but I would like to hear some explanations as well.

1. Ocho being 48th is a big one

2. Brandon Marshall being 33rd(10 behind Ginn and 20 behind Royal? )

3. Neither Chargers WR in the top-50.

4. I'm a huge Reggie Wayne fan, but 2nd?

5. Housh at 7 seems high, he was never 7th in Cincy.

Missed that one. Wow. VJax is insane value there.Color me shocked if Housh finishes in the top 10. The last SEA WR to finish in the top 10 was Jackson circa 2003 (9th). The last time before that was Galloway circa 1998 (9th).

 

[millertyme1]

2. Brandon Marshall being 33rd(10 behind Ginn and 20 behind Royal? )

I think everyone is very quick to assume Marshall won't be suspended. It's wonderful that the Denver Post made a statement that the suspension is going to be closer to 0 games than 8. If he's gone for 8, he's going to have a difficult time breaking 500 yards in 2009.Everything I see for Marshall right now is negative: Hip surgery, QB change, suspension looming.

 

[jamil]

The whole WR rankings seemed like an outlier to me. Which is nice, but I would like to hear some explanations as well.

1. Ocho being 48th is a big one

2. Brandon Marshall being 33rd(10 behind Ginn and 20 behind Royal? )

3. Neither Chargers WR in the top-50.

4. I'm a huge Reggie Wayne fan, but 2nd?

5. Housh at 7 seems high, he was never 7th in Cincy.

Missed that one. Wow. VJax is insane value there.Color me shocked if Housh finishes in the top 10. The last SEA WR to finish in the top 10 was Jackson circa 2003 (9th). The last time before that was Galloway circa 1998 (9th).

well i guess they're due?

 

[Postradamus]

Chad Johnson was WR50 last year on a dismally bad team w/o Palmer, and he was injured and missed 3 games. Assuming Palmer is healthy all year I can't even begin to explain how big of a bargain he is at that ranking.

lions fans takin potshots when they can is good shtick.

 

[texasbirdfan]

VJax is due for a big year- top 30

Chad had a dislo shoulder- he should be healed and higher

 

[Sabertooth]

I think Chad is certainly a BUY LOW right now. How low is the thing, but I really don't see why he wouldn't produce nicely this season. With Housh gone and Palmer back, Chad has as good of an opportunity to succeed as anyone. Prior to 2008, Chad hasn't had less than 87 catches or 1200 yards, nor had he missed a game since 2002. That's rock solid production.

Chad has always been a gifted athlete, and he's 4 years younger than TO, 1 year older than Steve Smith, a year younger than Randy Moss, and about the same age as Reggie Wayne. He had a down year, sure. But I would not be surprised at all to see throw up 90 catches and 1300 yards. Heck, his yards per catch fell by 5 yards last season. Outlier is right.

2003 Cincinnati Bengals 90 1355 15.1 82 10

2004 Cincinnati Bengals 95 1274 13.4 53 9

2005 Cincinnati Bengals 97 1432 14.8 70 9

2006 Cincinnati Bengals 87 1369 15.7 74 7

2007 Cincinnati Bengals 93 1440 15.5 70 8

2008 Cincinnati Bengals 53 540 10.2 26 4

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Chad Johnson was WR50 last year on a dismally bad team w/o Palmer, and he was injured and missed 3 games. Assuming Palmer is healthy all year I can't even begin to explain how big of a bargain he is at that ranking.

For me personally, that's the sticking point. He hasn't thrown a pass (that I know of) since being diagnosed with a frayed ligament in his throwing shoulder which he elected NOT to have surgery on. Last year if you prorate his starts, he was on pace to take 44 sacks - well above his previous career high. We know going in he has 4 games against the Ravens and Steelers. I know you can't predict injury but when you line up the circumstantial evidence it begins looking like bad juju for Palmer to predict health!

It's pretty well known that Palmer's been throwing since January or so, but we won't know what kind of strength he has on his throws probably until training camp.

and it was his elbow not his shoulder that was injured.

 

[lord_helmet]

(KFFL) The agent for Cincinnati Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco, Drew Rosenhaus, reports on his Twitter page that Ochocinco has been working overtime this offseason with his training. Rosenhaus added Ochocinco is in the best shape of his career and very motivated.

 

[3nOut]

I think Chad is certainly a BUY LOW right now. How low is the thing, but I really don't see why he wouldn't produce nicely this season. With Housh gone and Palmer back, and a more stable running game with Benson there, Chad has as good of an opportunity to succeed as anyone. Prior to 2008, Chad hasn't had less than 87 catches or 1200 yards, nor had he missed a game since 2002. That's rock solid production...

Appended....

 

[3nOut]

2. Brandon Marshall being 33rd(10 behind Ginn and 20 behind Royal? )

I think everyone is very quick to assume Marshall won't be suspended. It's wonderful that the Denver Post made a statement that the suspension is going to be closer to 0 games than 8. If he's gone for 8, he's going to have a difficult time breaking 500 yards in 2009.Everything I see for Marshall right now is negative: Hip surgery, QB change, suspension looming.

Then why assume he will be suspned? Why assume anything at all? Rank him where you think he should be, then adjust if/when any suspension news comes out.

 

[comfortably numb]

(KFFL) The agent for Cincinnati Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco, Drew Rosenhaus, reports on his Twitter page that Ochocinco has been working overtime this offseason with his training. Rosenhaus added Ochocinco is in the best shape of his career and very motivated.

WOWI thought these statements were only made in July/August.This must be true then

 

[puckalicious]

VJax is due for a big year- top 30Chad had a dislo shoulder- he should be healed and higher

Top 30 would be a bad year for VJax IMO. He finished 12th last year. Gates still appears to be limited and/or declining (but still stud TE #'s), and Chambers is Chambers. I don't see any reason to downgrade Jackson.Even if he pulled in the exact some stats this year 59/1098/7 he could float in the rankings to 20 maybe just due to normal fluctuation of those around him. I can't see him doing worse than 20th this year with alot of upside. Great WR2 to have on your team at the price of WR4 according to how he's being ranked.Sabertooth has the best argument for Ochocinco, good post.

 

[TS Garp]

(KFFL) The agent for Cincinnati Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco, Drew Rosenhaus, reports on his Twitter page that Ochocinco has been working overtime this offseason with his training. Rosenhaus added Ochocinco is in the best shape of his career and very motivated.

Considering the source (his agent), this means less than nothing.

 

[lord_helmet]

I'd say its an encouraging report that he's working overtime, but whatever. The issue here is the #48 ranking, clearly the guy has fallen off the planet on this one. Agent talk or not.

 

[TS Garp]

I'd say its an encouraging report that he's working overtime, but whatever. The issue here is the #48 ranking, clearly the guy has fallen off the planet on this one. Agent talk or not.

I hear you -- he's an intriguing player this year and I didn't mean to attack your statement; just not sure that I even believe Rosenhaus that CJ's been working overtime.

 

[lord_helmet]

I'd say its an encouraging report that he's working overtime, but whatever. The issue here is the #48 ranking, clearly the guy has fallen off the planet on this one. Agent talk or not.

I hear you -- he's an intriguing player this year and I didn't mean to attack your statement; just not sure that I even believe Rosenhaus that CJ's been working overtime.

No matter what anyone says about CJ this off season, he's going to have to prove it on the field. Why wouldnt he be motivated this year ? Say what you want about him but he has always trained hard and been a competitor. I think he's looking to put last year far behind him, but who knows.

 

[FantasyTrader]

2. Brandon Marshall being 33rd(10 behind Ginn and 20 behind Royal? )

I think everyone is very quick to assume Marshall won't be suspended. It's wonderful that the Denver Post made a statement that the suspension is going to be closer to 0 games than 8. If he's gone for 8, he's going to have a difficult time breaking 500 yards in 2009.Everything I see for Marshall right now is negative: Hip surgery, QB change, suspension looming.

Then why assume he will be suspned? Why assume anything at all? Rank him where you think he should be, then adjust if/when any suspension news comes out.

Because you have less to lose. The most I have to lose by assuming he'll be suspended and avoiding him is the value between Marshall and the next player I have on my board.

The most I have to lose by assuming he WON'T be suspended and drafting him based on full-season projections is the loss of my #2 WR (at least) for significant time.

 

[puckalicious]

2. Brandon Marshall being 33rd(10 behind Ginn and 20 behind Royal? )

I think everyone is very quick to assume Marshall won't be suspended. It's wonderful that the Denver Post made a statement that the suspension is going to be closer to 0 games than 8. If he's gone for 8, he's going to have a difficult time breaking 500 yards in 2009.Everything I see for Marshall right now is negative: Hip surgery, QB change, suspension looming.

Then why assume he will be suspned? Why assume anything at all? Rank him where you think he should be, then adjust if/when any suspension news comes out.

Because you have less to lose. The most I have to lose by assuming he'll be suspended and avoiding him is the value between Marshall and the next player I have on my board.

The most I have to lose by assuming he WON'T be suspended and drafting him based on full-season projections is the loss of my #2 WR (at least) for significant time. value between Marshall and your next WR.

 

[FantasyTrader]

2. Brandon Marshall being 33rd(10 behind Ginn and 20 behind Royal? )

I think everyone is very quick to assume Marshall won't be suspended. It's wonderful that the Denver Post made a statement that the suspension is going to be closer to 0 games than 8. If he's gone for 8, he's going to have a difficult time breaking 500 yards in 2009.Everything I see for Marshall right now is negative: Hip surgery, QB change, suspension looming.

Then why assume he will be suspned? Why assume anything at all? Rank him where you think he should be, then adjust if/when any suspension news comes out.

Because you have less to lose. The most I have to lose by assuming he'll be suspended and avoiding him is the value between Marshall and the next player I have on my board.

The most I have to lose by assuming he WON'T be suspended and drafting him based on full-season projections is the loss of my #2 WR (at least) for significant time. value between Marshall and your next WR.

Nope. You just made it an incorrect statement.

 

[Truman]

VJax is due for a big year- top 30Chad had a dislo shoulder- he should be healed and higher

Top 30 would be a bad year for VJax IMO.

`I took the first post to mean top 30 overall, not just for WRs.6'5, 230, coming off a breakout where he was 35th in targets? He was only the top WR on his team starting in October and is heading into a contract year. Only concern I have is suspension.

 

[Bri]

Chad Johnson was WR50 last year on a dismally bad team w/o Palmer, and he was injured and missed 3 games. Assuming Palmer is healthy all year I can't even begin to explain how big of a bargain he is at that ranking.

For me personally, that's the sticking point. He hasn't thrown a pass (that I know of) since being diagnosed with a frayed ligament in his throwing shoulder which he elected NOT to have surgery on. Last year if you prorate his starts, he was on pace to take 44 sacks - well above his previous career high. We know going in he has 4 games against the Ravens and Steelers. I know you can't predict injury but when you line up the circumstantial evidence it begins looking like bad juju for Palmer to predict health!

http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/conte...e_on_a_pit.html

 

[trader jake]

Then why assume he will be suspned? Why assume anything at all? Rank him where you think he should be, then adjust if/when any suspension news comes out.

Because you have less to lose. The most I have to lose by assuming he'll be suspended and avoiding him is the value between Marshall and the next player I have on my board.

The most I have to lose by assuming he WON'T be suspended and drafting him based on full-season projections is the loss of my #2 WR (at least) for significant time.

Exactly, otherwise you're eliminating one criteria from your rankings (in this case the possibility of suspension). Basing rankings solely on expected production without accounting for risk is a recipe for disaster.

 

[iSnitch]

I do enjoy the other staffers defending their rankings as it often leads to great discussions (Wood, Waldman, Bloom, Yudkin, Tremblay, and others).

Where's Wimer?

 

[identikit]

I do enjoy the other staffers defending their rankings as it often leads to great discussions (Wood, Waldman, Bloom, Yudkin, Tremblay, and others).Where's Wimer?

 

[TS Garp]

There are other odd outliers in his WR rankings:

Braylon Edwards: #35

Santonio Holmes: #37

Vincent Jackson: #54

I get going out on a limb sometimes, but these don't make any sense to me. Would love to hear more explanation.

 

[fatkid]

In the first 11 games, the Bengals play the Ravens twice, Pittsburg twice, Oakland, the Broncos,and have a bye. I would rather not draft OchoCinco If I could only consider starting him 4 of the first 11 games. You only get to play him at Green Bay, At Cleveland, Against Houston and Chicago.

Plus, with Coles, Palmer has another option to throw to. Wimer has Coles at 26.

Mark defends himself on the Chad OchoCinco page (I don't think this is pay material)

Mark Wimer - Chad Ochocinco's attitude went into the toilet last season, to the point of having a shouting match with head coach Marvin Lewis (and getting suspended for week 12 due to the incident). He's already lost $250,000 in bonus money this season for skipping offseason conditioning sessions - in short, it doesn't look like Ochocinco is very excited about playing in Cincinnati this season, and the lack of interest in trading for him from across the league means that's exactly where he'll be come September. No thanks, I'll invest my fantasy picks in people who want to play the game during 2009. On June 6th, Ochocinco admitted that he didn't lift a single weight or run a single route prior to the 2008 training camp - we all saw how well he delivered during the season.