Last Minute Dynasty Targets (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

Mine include:

Wheaton, T. Williams: Sophomore WRs in plus situations whose likely production will quickly boost their stock, when coupled with their age.

RG3: Buy on bad news. He's already put together a solid stretch as the #1 fantasy QB in football, so the upside is clearly there. Given the depth at the position, a swing and miss shouldn't be too damning, compared to equally risky targets at other positions.

Jeremy Hill: I think he's the best back in his class--one of the youngest and freshest too. Gio is a major roadblock, but not worthy of the major ADP gap between Hill and Sankey and, to a lesser extent, Hyde. He has a shot to push Gio into a Vereen role; as an organization--I'd image that would be quite appealing: Hill doing the dirty work and keeping the home run hitter fresh to hit home runs. They'll be running the ball a lot either way.

Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams (Combo if possible): A nice mix of immediate production and long-term potential if Williams proves to be the next starter. AW seems like a Coughlin guy, assuming Ole' Tom can keep his job for a couple more years. Steal at current ADP(s), but it could take some work to lock them both up. If you don't need RB2/flex production, I still think AW is a solid target.

Alshon Jeffrey: Last chance to get this Tier 1 player at Tier 1B prices. I'd be looking to "downgrade" from Julio, DT, Dez, and Green, if I can pick up a solid piece for doing so.

Austin Stud-Jenkins: The Alshon Jeffrey of his position--Fresh/Soph stud with Junior year weight/Offense(QB) problems, newly slimmed down. Day 1 mismatch and elite red zone target.

Charles Sims: Buy on bad news. The staff loves him. Win/Win: If Martin rebounds, Sims is one of the bigger cuffs in the league--at least worthy of his current ADP. If Martin struggles at all, as he did last season, Sims' ADP is going to skyrocket, just based on speculation.

Yours?

 

[FUBAR]

"last minute"? what means this?

 

[Concept Coop]

"last minute"? what means this?

Before start of regular season.

 

[socrates]

Thanks! That looks like a pretty good list. Some of my random thoughts . . .

Wheaton, T. Williams: Wheaton's lackluster Preseason Week #3 performance has me reconsidering him as a dynasty buy. At the price he is going, however, I am buying. I expect some growing pains, though. I am in on Williams.

RG3: I agree RG3 has tremendous potential, but unless he learns how to properly slide, we may soon be talking about Kirk Cousins as the value pick at QB.

Jeremy Hill: As it stands right now, Hill appears more likely than any other Rookie runner to have a significant role in his team's offense this season. That has to count for something. However, Gio still remains the lead back in this duo, and his presence puts a significant damper on Hill's Dynasty value.

Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams (Combo if possible): Jennings has nice redraft value, but I don't see him as a premium player to target in Dynasty. Andre Williams' lack of receiving skills hinders his dynasty value.

Alshon Jeffrey: It is too late to get Alshon for any kind of a discount in Dynasty.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins: I don't expect Seferian-Jenkins to immediately impress, but he is a definite hold, or buy, in Dynasty.

Charles Sims: I would not lose sight of Sims. He can likely be had for a song right now, and he has starter potential. That said, I was impressed with Martin's effort in preseason, and unless Martin falters, Sims cannot be counted on returning from injury to a significant role in the Bucs' offense.

Other guys to target for value:

Dwayne Allen hasn't done much this preseason, but he could become a reliable target for Luck.

Tre Mason has tumbled down the Rams' depth chart, but his deficiencies in pass protection are fixable. He has tremendous running ability.

Odell Beckham, Jr. has yet to see the field for the Giants, and if his dynasty owner's patience has waned, this may be a good time to pounce.

If Mark Ingram continues to play like he has in the preseason, he will find the field with greater frequency than in past seasons. Remember, Ingram is playing for a contract, too.

If Ingram departs NO after the season, Khiry Robinson should have an expanded role.

Bryce Brown has been running as the fourth RB for Buffalo, but he has RB1 upside. He is a good dynasty stash.

Ronnie Hillman left a lot of fantasy owners with a foul taste in their mouths last season, but he is running as Ball's primary backup, and at his current ADP, he is a value grab.

Christine Michael generated a ton of buzz last preseason, but he has been relatively quiet this preseason. Dynasty owners are unlikely to part with him for any value, but if Turbin continues to run ahead of him once the season kicks off, I would test Michael's value.

I am always looking for bargains, especially at the RB position. Lance Dunbar qualified as a value pick for astute owners who grabbed him prior to his spike in value. Similarly, guys like Lache Seastrunk, Latavius Murray and Storm Johnson could be good preemptive pickups, if you have room at the end of your dynasty bench to stash a player or two. (You can find a long list of players identified in this Forum who fit the bill here. Pick your flavor.)

Marquess Wilson will be out until midseason, but don't let him fall completely off of your dynasty radar.

Travis Kelce has been doing his best Gronkowski impersonation for the Chiefs. Running behind Fasano, once the season kicks off for real, he may disappoint some impatient dynasty owners who expect immediate returns on their investment. That would be a good time to swoop in with an offer.

 

[cusefan115]

Thanks! That looks like a pretty good list. Some of my random thoughts . . .

Wheaton, T. Williams: Wheaton's lackluster Preseason Week #3 performance has me reconsidering him as a dynasty buy. At the price he is going, however, I am buying. I expect some growing pains, though. I am in on Williams.

RG3: I agree RG3 has tremendous potential, but unless he learns how to properly slide, we may soon be talking about Kirk Cousins as the value pick at QB.

Jeremy Hill: As it stands right now, Hill appears more likely than any other Rookie runner to have a significant role in his team's offense this season. That has to count for something. However, Gio still remains the lead back in this duo, and his presence puts a significant damper on Hill's Dynasty value.

Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams (Combo if possible): Jennings has nice redraft value, but I don't see him as a premium player to target in Dynasty. Andre Williams' lack of receiving skills hinders his dynasty value.

Alshon Jeffrey: It is too late to get Alshon for any kind of a discount in Dynasty.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins: I don't expect Seferian-Jenkins to immediately impress, but he is a definite hold, or buy, in Dynasty.

Charles Sims: I would not lose sight of Sims. He can likely be had for a song right now, and he has starter potential. That said, I was impressed with Martin's effort in preseason, and unless Martin falters, Sims cannot be counted on returning from injury to a significant role in the Bucs' offense.

Other guys to target for value:

Dwayne Allen hasn't done much this preseason, but he could become a reliable target for Luck.

Tre Mason has tumbled down the Rams' depth chart, but his deficiencies in pass protection are fixable. He has tremendous running ability.

Odell Beckham, Jr. has yet to see the field for the Giants, and if his dynasty owner's patience has waned, this may be a good time to pounce.

If Mark Ingram continues to play like he has in the preseason, he will find the field with greater frequency than in past seasons. Remember, Ingram is playing for a contract, too.

If Ingram departs NO after the season, Khiry Robinson should have an expanded role.

Bryce Brown has been running as the fourth RB for Buffalo, but he has RB1 upside. He is a good dynasty stash.

Ronnie Hillman left a lot of fantasy owners with a foul taste in their mouths last season, but he is running as Ball's primary backup, and at his current ADP, he is a value grab.

Christine Michael generated a ton of buzz last preseason, but he has been relatively quiet this preseason. Dynasty owners are unlikely to part with him for any value, but if Turbin continues to run ahead of him once the season kicks off, I would test Michael's value.

I am always looking for bargains, especially at the RB position. Lance Dunbar qualified as a value pick for astute owners who grabbed him prior to his spike in value. Similarly, guys like Lache Seastrunk, Latavius Murray and Storm Johnson could be good preemptive pickups, if you have room at the end of your dynasty bench to stash a player or two. (You can find a long list of players identified in this Forum who fit the bill here. Pick your flavor.)

Marquess Wilson will be out until midseason, but don't let him fall completely off of your dynasty radar.

Travis Kelce has been doing his best Gronkowski impersonation for the Chiefs. Running behind Fasano, once the season kicks off for real, he may disappoint some impatient dynasty owners who expect immediate returns on their investment. That would be a good time to swoop in with an offer.

I agree 100% on Williams. Seems like an outstanding runner but his upside is ultimately capped in ppr. Its just very hard to be anything more than a low end rb2 without being utilized in the passing game.

 

[Concept Coop]

Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams (Combo if possible): Jennings has nice redraft value, but I don't see him as a premium player to target in Dynasty. Andre Williams' lack of receiving skills hinders his dynasty value.

Jennings' value is, in relation to cost, is even greater in dynasty than re-draft, in my opinion. He's got a 1-2 year window; for me personally, there aren't many backs whom I'd count on being able to start beyond 2 seasons, even some whose age would suggest otherwise--Stacy, Gerhart, Forte, and Bush are a few examples.

I like your calls on Beckham and Ingram, too.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

I'd be more willing to gamble that Sefarian-Jenkins has an underwhelming year and buy at a reduced price next offseason.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'd be more willing to gamble that Sefarian-Jenkins has an underwhelming year and buy at a reduced price next offseason.

As a general rule of thumb--I'd agree on rookie TEs. Eifert owners would be better off having acquired him this year than last. But ASJ doesn't cost anywhere close to what Eifert did.

I just don't see a reward in waiting on him. He's a mid/late 2nd round pick in a VERY deep draft class. I don't see him being worth much less than that in next year's class, even assuming he doesn't meet expectations.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Looking at my dynasty rankings compared to the staff consensus, here would be my targets:

Quarterback

RGIII: already covered.

Russell Wilson: People are treating him like he's going to be triggering a low-volume passing offense in perpetuity. Troy Aikman aside, name a true franchise quarterback for whom that was the case.

Tom Brady: His play didn't fall off last year anywhere near as much as his numbers would suggest. Right now I'm the only guy on staff who would prefer him to Tony Romo. He's more talented, doesn't have back issues, and was a bigger difference maker pretty much continuously from 2007-2012. And he's so, so, so cheap.

Blake Bortles: I think all three rookie QBs are pretty comparable in value (I rank them Manziel, Bortles, then Bridgewater), but I picked Bortles because he's the cheapest of the three. Talented, unproven QBs should be prioritized above old or mediocre QBs because the upside is so great. Right now if you exclude my own rankings, Bortles has a lower AAV than EJ Manuel. EJ MANUEL! The staff has him valued behind Ben Roethlisberger and just a smidge ahead of Alex Smith. I love Ben Roethlisberger and have been rostering him as my #2 QB for the better part of a decade now, but the upside on Bortles if he hits makes him the easy choice for me, especially because I can get a pseudo-Roethlisberger for pennies if Bortles fails.

Mike Glennon: The poster child for my "get talented backups over crappy starters" philosophy this year, (a philosophy that netted me Foles in almost every league last year and Kaepernick the year before that). Glennon looked pretty decent for a rookie last year. He's probably the answer over McCown in the long term. He might be the answer over McCown in the short term. His price tag might as well be "free" right now. Buy him before he wins the starting job. While you're at it, consider getting guys like Osweiler, Nassib, or Carr, too.

Running Back

Reggie Bush: I think Bush is basically an off-brand Arian Foster. Super-productive in the short term, who knows in the long term.

Ray Rice: Not as bad as he looked last year. I think injuries might have been affecting him. Once your leaguemates realize this sometime around week 2, his price is going to jump dramatically.

Mark Ingram: First, New Orleans has always thrown a boatload of passes to their RBs under Payton, and that's not going to magically stop now that Sproles is gone. Those receptions are going to go somewhere, and I think that Ingram will end up with more of them than people think. Second, he's a free agent after the season, and those guys are always good investments.

Bryce Brown: Buffalo traded a decent draft pick to get him, which suggests he's in their long term plans. His price is currently depressed because he's probably not in their short-term plans.

Jonathan Stewart: Yes, again.

Theo Riddick: That New Orleans offense they're installing in Detroit is basically to PPR RBs what the late '90s / early '00s Denver offense was to non-PPR RBs. Riddick is a free lottery ticket that's been generating buzz.

Denard Robinson: I like unicorns who are available for free.

Wide Receivers

Percy Harvin: Pretty sure I don't need to go into this one again. Everyone will see for themselves soon enough.

Jordy Nelson: He's a younger, cheaper, better Brandon Marshall.

Michael Crabtree: Talented, Kaepernick loves him, available at a huge discount compared to where he was last year despite being the same guy.

Jordan Matthews: Consider this a bet on Chip Kelly. Matthews looks like the only receiver in that offense who is a long-term solution.

Tavon Austin: Showed flashes last year, has tons of talent, will have a long leash, is crazy young, costs a nickel.

Paul Richardson: Look, people like hating on short receivers, but those NFC West teams have been loading up on them in the last two years (Tavon Austin, Paul Richardson, John Brown). Methinks they know something we don't.

Justin Blackmon: Huh??? Somehow I've managed to find myself way above consensus on him. Which is kind of an ironic turn of events, given my history. I know he's a longshot, but all WR6s are longshots, and good luck finding one with this kind of upside.

John Brown: See Paul Richardson comment.

Stedman Bailey: Reportedly looked like the best receiver in camps. The guys ahead of him don't really scare anyone.

Marlon Brown: His production as a rookie is not at all commensurate with his current cost.

Josh Huff: Another bet on Chip Kelly.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski: Another one that probably doesn't require explanation.

Charles Clay: I'm with wdcrob on Clay, I think he's an intriguing young TE who was surprisingly productive last year, but is being completely ignored this year.

Richard Rodgers: I'm actually surprised to see how much higher than consensus I am on this one. Gambling on the potential long-term starting TE in Green Bay seems like a no-brainer to me. What, would you rather have Delanie Walker?

 

[Concept Coop]

Looking at my dynasty rankings compared to the staff consensus, here would be my targets:

Very solid list. I'm not in a hurry to target Wilson, Bortles, Glennon, Rice, Blackmon or Harvin, at what I perceive their prices to be. But I really like the rest of the list.

 

[cusefan115]

I have a question for posters that have followed the combine closely throughout history. Has there ever been a rb with as poor of measurables as Jeremy Hill that went on to sustained NFL success?

 

[Concept Coop]

I have a question for posters that have followed the combine closely throughout history. Has there ever been a rb with as poor of measurables as Jeremy Hill that went on to sustained NFL success?

LeSean McCoy. Arian Foster (pro-day). Eddie Lacy (pro-day).

 

[cusefan115]

I have a question for posters that have followed the combine closely throughout history. Has there ever been a rb with as poor of measurables as Jeremy Hill that went on to sustained NFL success?

LeSean McCoy.

Interesting. I guess I missed him. Definitely gives me some more hope for Hill.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Good list and great topic to think about before week 1, right before the dynasty world as we know it will shift.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I have a question for posters that have followed the combine closely throughout history. Has there ever been a rb with as poor of measurables as Jeremy Hill that went on to sustained NFL success?

Alfred Morris was shorter, lighter, had shorter arms, smaller hands, ran slower (albeit just 0.01 slower, but given the weight difference it's significant), and put up fewer reps. Of course, Morris beat Hill's broad jump by a little and his vertical by a lot. Did Hill really just put up a 29" vertical? That's kind of pathetic.

 

[Apple Juice]

These dynasty threads are the best in this forum whenever they crop up. Three guys I like...

Reuben Randle - Seems like a lot of folks aren't impressed but he's shown flashes, could be a candidate for 7-8 touchdowns every year he starts 16 games with his height. Beckham might come on in a year or two but still like Randle to starting opposite of Cruz for next few seasons. Giants have looked shaky but Eli has supported two startable receivers for most of his career.

Kenny Britt - Most agree he's talented but I think he's really really talented. For a guy with potential top 10 ability that most don't expect much from anymore on a team that just lost it's QB, very little cost for a lot of upside. If he's healthy and has something to prove Fisher might be able to get him back to his potential. People have said Quick looks good but my guess is Britt will finish the year with far and away the best numbers on St Louis this year. Plus still pretty young with low mileage.

Jonathan Stewart - He's been mentioned but to me is similar Britt. Has elite talent and has already shown he can put up monster numbers. What if he stays healthy? Even if it's only a ten percent chance, potential return on investment is huge. Plus still pretty young with low mileage.

 

[Hankmoody]

Damien Williams RB MIA

If he's still under the radar your league is asleep at the wheel. He's gonna make the 53 and play. This is the UDFA everyone thought they were getting when they were drafting Crowell.

Allen Robinson WR JAX

Bortles is the real deal, and in 2 years this is gonna be a smokin' hot combo.

Travis Kelce TE KCC

Probably too late on this one, he's had a strong pre-season after being an August Warrior last year before an injury, but if he can be had he'll pay off.

Mark Ingram RB NOS

All aboard!

Cam Newton QB CAR

There's a lot to hate right now, and sellers are bailing like a Wall St. broker in 2008, but in a dynasty league I'm all in. If you're sitting on Ryan Nassib you might want to aim higher.

Jace Amaro TE NYJ

I had him as the best TE during the draft process, and no one is talking about him right now. Should be modestly priced.

Zach Mettenberger QB TEN

If you can't get Newton, sit on this guy. He's gonna get a chance to play this year, and he can play.

 

[Concept Coop]

Russell Wilson: People are treating him like he's going to be triggering a low-volume passing offense in perpetuity. Troy Aikman aside, name a true franchise quarterback for whom that was the case.

In the past, I've been on board with this. Perhaps it's nothing more than my short attention span, but I don't see the payoff in waiting anymore. I think he's more likely to put up Tony Romo numbers than Drew Brees numbers, even a few years from now--adjusted for league pace, of course. Why pay a mid-first rounder for Wilson when I can get Romo for 3 years for a 2nd? Simple example, but it makes my basic point.

ETA: Or a bit more for Stafford and not have to wait 2 seasons for above baseline production?

Reuben Randle - Seems like a lot of folks aren't impressed but he's shown flashes, could be a candidate for 7-8 touchdowns every year he starts 16 games with his height. Beckham might come on in a year or two but still like Randle to starting opposite of Cruz for next few seasons. Giants have looked shaky but Eli has supported two startable receivers for most of his career.

Kenny Britt - Most agree he's talented but I think he's really really talented. For a guy with potential top 10 ability that most don't expect much from anymore on a team that just lost it's QB, very little cost for a lot of upside. If he's healthy and has something to prove Fisher might be able to get him back to his potential. People have said Quick looks good but my guess is Britt will finish the year with far and away the best numbers on St Louis this year. Plus still pretty young with low mileage.

Jonathan Stewart - He's been mentioned but to me is similar Britt. Has elite talent and has already shown he can put up monster numbers. What if he stays healthy? Even if it's only a ten percent chance, potential return on investment is huge. Plus still pretty young with low mileage.

I like all three of these targets. I don't think there is even a 10% chance that Stewart ever becomes what we thought he could, but I think there's at least a 10% chance at 2x RB2 seasons in his tank, and that's enough to justify the investment at his current price, in 2x RB leagues.

I'm guilty of writing Britt off and I haven't even been targeting him this off-season. But that's apathy or laziness more than anything. Unlike Stewart, I can see his chances to once again be considered top 15 at 5-10%; top 24-32 even higher. Seems like he can be had for a late second or equivalent value.

I liked Randle a lot more before seeing the new offense in action and prior to the Beckham acquisition. But he's young enough to be around after or outside of the current situation, even assuming it doesn't improve.

Cam Newton QB CAR

There's a lot to hate right now, and sellers are bailing like a Wall St. broker in 2008, but in a dynasty league I'm all in. If you're sitting on Ryan Nassib you might want to aim higher.

I agree. If you can get the top 2-3 dynasty QB at top 6+ prices--he's a steal. He's never finished any worse than QB5 (season totals) and there is plenty of room for improvement in his passing numbers. If Benjamin is a future, legit WR1--he'll start helping Cam's passing TD totals very soon.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I am on board with Rice and Ingram.

Andre Williams and Jeremy Hill for the rookie RB's. These guys seem like the best shot for year 1 production. If you can wait until year 2: Carlos Hyde.

 

[cusefan115]

I have a question for posters that have followed the combine closely throughout history. Has there ever been a rb with as poor of measurables as Jeremy Hill that went on to sustained NFL success?

Alfred Morris was shorter, lighter, had shorter arms, smaller hands, ran slower (albeit just 0.01 slower, but given the weight difference it's significant), and put up fewer reps. Of course, Morris beat Hill's broad jump by a little and his vertical by a lot. Did Hill really just put up a 29" vertical? That's kind of pathetic.

Yeah, the jumps are what worry me. There seems to be plenty of "slow" backs that succeed in the NFL. The successful backs that absolutely bomb the jumps seem few and far between. Mccoy is a good find though and I'm no expert so maybe the jumps have no predictive value at all for a rb. I'm not really sure what to make of Hill. I like his running style and you can't argue with his production so maybe he is a good target.

I think Mason is the running back I would target early in the season out of the rookies though. I feel like there is a good chance he gets the opportunity to prove himself during the season. And he is such a talented runner imo. He just needs to get the blocking part of the game down.

 

[Concept Coop]

Yeah, the jumps are what worry me. There seems to be plenty of "slow" backs that succeed in the NFL. The successful backs that absolutely bomb the jumps seem few and far between. Mccoy is a good find though and I'm no expert so maybe the jumps have no predictive value at all for a rb. I'm not really sure what to make of Hill. I like his running style and you can't argue with his production so maybe he is a good target.

I think there is plenty to worry about with Hill, at least compared to elite or first round RB prospects.

Firstly, however, Hill is not slow at all--In a vacuum or for his size. He had 6x 50+ yard runs last season and pulled away from defenders at a good rate. In that way, he reminds me of Arian Foster--he's faster in pads than in shorts (relative to field). He uses his vision and angles to get potential tacklers out of position, rather than simply running by them, also, very much like Foster. His combine 40 time wasn't concerning and pro-day 40 time was ideal.

As for his other numbers--I think there is room for concern. But I take comfort in the fact that his combine performance didn't matter to the NFL. His stock didn't move at all. Like you, I'm no professional, so I place a lot of stock in professional opinions.

Combine numbers are a lesser indicator of NFL success than draft position--both in results and point in the process. A player is less likely to be drafted in certain ranges without ideal measurables, but if they are despite that, I don't think measurables play as much of a factor as we think. Certainly not enough to undo the bigger factor: draft position.

Just my thoughts on the matter. He's not a perfect prospect and I see why some don't like him. I just personally do.

 

[Milkman]

Mine include:

Wheaton, T. Williams: Sophomore WRs in plus situations whose likely production will quickly boost their stock, when coupled with their age.

RG3: Buy on bad news. He's already put together a solid stretch as the #1 fantasy QB in football, so the upside is clearly there. Given the depth at the position, a swing and miss shouldn't be too damning, compared to equally risky targets at other positions.

Jeremy Hill: I think he's the best back in his class--one of the youngest and freshest too. Gio is a major roadblock, but not worthy of the major ADP gap between Hill and Sankey and, to a lesser extent, Hyde. He has a shot to push Gio into a Vereen role; as an organization--I'd image that would be quite appealing: Hill doing the dirty work and keeping the home run hitter fresh to hit home runs. They'll be running the ball a lot either way.

Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams (Combo if possible): A nice mix of immediate production and long-term potential if Williams proves to be the next starter. AW seems like a Coughlin guy, assuming Ole' Tom can keep his job for a couple more years. Steal at current ADP(s), but it could take some work to lock them both up. If you don't need RB2/flex production, I still think AW is a solid target.

Alshon Jeffrey: Last chance to get this Tier 1 player at Tier 1B prices. I'd be looking to "downgrade" from Julio, DT, Dez, and Green, if I can pick up a solid piece for doing so.

Austin Stud-Jenkins: The Alshon Jeffrey of his position--Fresh/Soph stud with Junior year weight/Offense(QB) problems, newly slimmed down. Day 1 mismatch and elite red zone target.

Charles Sims: Buy on bad news. The staff loves him. Win/Win: If Martin rebounds, Sims is one of the bigger cuffs in the league--at least worthy of his current ADP. If Martin struggles at all, as he did last season, Sims' ADP is going to skyrocket, just based on speculation.

Yours?

Nice list.

I like ASJ and drafted him early but I'm not sure there are enough targets to go around. I'm a little worried he will be one of those TE that catches everything they throw at him but they only throw 3-4 times a game to him. He could be an elite red zone option but they have to huge WR too. He's going to have to be special to demand the targets.......

Cordarrelle Patterson - This is the last chance to acquire him. He will be Alshon Jeffery level value this time next year. WR1 that is going to see a ton of targets moving forward. They are going to throw more moving forward and he and Bridgewater are going to have nice careers together. Plus there is really no one else on the team to steal targets.

Roddy White - He was good last year at the end of the year when he finally got healthy. If he stays healthy he could be a surprise top 20 WR.

Pierre Thomas - Sproles is gone. There is a ton of targets that need to go somewhere. Thomas caught 70 "with" Sproles there last year. He's a lock to duplicate that and good chance he exceeds that. He has a small chance of being the #1 RB in PPR formats. He probably doesn't get there but it's certainly possible.

Ladarius Green - Gates gets hurt or regresses anymore both quite possible and Green could blow up. He just gets half the targets of the other great TE. Once that changes he's a possible top 3 TE option.

 

[cusefan115]

Yeah, the jumps are what worry me. There seems to be plenty of "slow" backs that succeed in the NFL. The successful backs that absolutely bomb the jumps seem few and far between. Mccoy is a good find though and I'm no expert so maybe the jumps have no predictive value at all for a rb. I'm not really sure what to make of Hill. I like his running style and you can't argue with his production so maybe he is a good target.

I think there is plenty to worry about with Hill, at least compared to elite or first round RB prospects.

Firstly, however, Hill is not slow at all--In a vacuum or for his size. He had 6x 50+ yard runs last season and pulled away from defenders at a good rate. In that way, he reminds me of Arian Foster--he's faster in pads than in shorts (relative to field). He uses his vision and angles to get potential tacklers out of position, rather than simply running by them, also, very much like Foster. His combine 40 time wasn't concerning and pro-day 40 time was ideal.

As for his other numbers--I think there is room for concern. But I take comfort in the fact that his combine performance didn't matter to the NFL. His stock didn't move at all. Like you, I'm no professional, so I place a lot of stock in professional opinions.

Combine numbers are a lesser indicator of NFL success than draft position--both in results and point in the process. A player is less likely to be drafted in certain ranges without ideal measurables, but if they are despite that, I don't think measurables play as much of a factor as we think. Certainly not enough to undo the bigger factor: draft position.

Just my thoughts on the matter. He's not a perfect prospect and I see why some don't like him. I just personally do.

I agree. He plays faster than his forty time, I noticed that as soon as I started looking into him. He pulled away from SEC defenders on a regular basis. And the second round draft status is reassuring. I defer to the experts most of the time when I am drafting. In fact I did pick Hill in one of my drafts. In the other one though, I went with Tre Mason over Hill. Early returns aren't encouraging but we will have to see how that works out. I felt like Mason would have been a second rounder too though, if it wasn't for his wrist injury. I'm very surprised that he's had difficulty running the ball this preseason.

 

[Concept Coop]

Nice list.

I like ASJ and drafted him early but I'm not sure there are enough targets to go around. I'm a little worried he will be one of those TE that catches everything they throw at him but they only throw 3-4 times a game to him. He could be an elite red zone option but they have to huge WR too. He's going to have to be special to demand the targets.......

Cordarrelle Patterson - This is the last chance to acquire him. He will be Alshon Jeffery level value this time next year. WR1 that is going to see a ton of targets moving forward. They are going to throw more moving forward and he and Bridgewater are going to have nice careers together. Plus there is really no one else on the team to steal targets.

Roddy White - He was good last year at the end of the year when he finally got healthy. If he stays healthy he could be a surprise top 20 WR.

Pierre Thomas - Sproles is gone. There is a ton of targets that need to go somewhere. Thomas caught 70 "with" Sproles there last year. He's a lock to duplicate that and good chance he exceeds that. He has a small chance of being the #1 RB in PPR formats. He probably doesn't get there but it's certainly possible.

Ladarius Green - Gates gets hurt or regresses anymore both quite possible and Green could blow up. He just gets half the targets of the other great TE. Once that changes he's a possible top 3 TE option.

I think the target concern with ASJ is valid, but more so short-term. He's not likely to matter next year to fantasy owners (Reed is a major historic outlier). The threat of waiting is that his value rises the way L.Green's has--that he shows enough--by way of a few special plays--to get owners thinking about 2015+. Targets could be an issue at that time, but it's not a given. Evans could bust, Jackson could slow with age, the number of pass attempts, and/or efficiency per attempt, could rise significantly, the studs on the outside could open things up in the middle, etc.

I like your list with the exception of Patterson. I just don't see a Jeffrey level NFL WR, special teams value aside.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Russell Wilson: People are treating him like he's going to be triggering a low-volume passing offense in perpetuity. Troy Aikman aside, name a true franchise quarterback for whom that was the case.

In the past, I've been on board with this. Perhaps it's nothing more than my short attention span, but I don't see the payoff in waiting anymore. I think he's more likely to put up Tony Romo numbers than Drew Brees numbers, even a few years from now--adjusted for league pace, of course. Why pay a mid-first rounder for Wilson when I can get Romo for 3 years for a 2nd? Simple example, but it makes my basic point.

ETA: Or a bit more for Stafford and not have to wait 2 seasons for above baseline production?

Huh? Wilson's already giving above-baseline production. He was QB9 last year and QB11 the year before. Okay, sure, he was 12th in PPG both years, which would represent right at the baseline. If you do Wilson the courtesy of throwing out the first four starts of his career he was 8th from week 5 to week 17 his rookie year. Either way, two years in the league, two seasons of low-end QB1 production.

And that's kind of the point... a first and second year starter in an offense that threw the ball fewer times than any other in the league still gave you startable fantasy production. He's getting better as a player and his team just added one of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL. If his team winds up ranking just bottom 5 in pass attempts instead of bottom 2, that represents 80-100 extra passes a year (at 7 YPA, that's 560-700 more passing yards). At Wilson's current cost, he's all upside. We talk about how rushing production is the huge trump card when it comes to QBs, and only Cam Newton and Robert Griffin have rushed for more yards over the last two years than Russell Wilson. If you use a 30 yard/game threshold, Wilson is one of six qualifiers (Griffin, Newton, Wilson, Kaepernick, Vick, Pryor- pretty much a who's who of rushing QBs). In NFL history, only Cam Newton and Andrew Luck have more fantasy points through two years (yes, fantasy points have been exploding recently so a historical comparison isn't the fairest, but here's a complete list of players to average 20 PPG through two years: Newton, Culpepper, Marino, Warner, RGIII, Luck, Foles, Garcia, Wilson).

And worst case scenario, if you buy Wilson, you get stuck with 10 years of low-end fantasy QB1 play. Obviously low-end QB1 play isn't all that valuable, but that's one heck of a nice downside. Few passers can claim a floor like that.

 

[Milkman]

Yeah I know you're not high on Patterson. He's a special player with the ball in his hands. He's actually just a mediocre wr but get the ball in his hands on bubble screens and hand offs and he's special. The thing is with Patterson he's been doing this for a while and people keep saying he was getting lucky. At some point you have to concede he might just be special.......

 

[cusefan115]

Here are mine:

QB:

David Carr: He's got pretty decent athleticism, a great arm and is going to get the opportunity to play early. I think a big part of taking a flier on a player is getting a chance to see what you have early on. Roster spots are limited and I really don't like the return rates of sitting on prospects for years at a time.

Mike Glennon: Tampa is loaded with weapons and it remains to be see if McCown was a creation of Trestman. I personally don't expect much from McCown so I feel like Glennon will get another chance this season.

RB:

Jerrick Mckinnon: I will own this guy wherever I possibly can. He has outstanding (Christine Michael type) athleticism and the hype around him is already starting to grow. I have no doubt he will break off a couple 30 + yard runs this season and his value will take off. And if AP gets injured or chooses to retire sooner than expected, watch out.

Bryce Brown: Lost in the shuffle of the preseason and him running with the 3rd/4th team offense is the fact that Buffalo traded a 4th round pick for him. I really don't think they would do that unless they view him as a substantial part of the future.

Tre Mason: His value is dropping like a lead weight right now and I am not quite sure why. We all knew he was a bit of a project coming in. But I think he would have been a second round pick if he didn't have a wrist surgery hanging over his head. If you can take advantage of an anxious owner panicking I would pounce.

Carlos Hyde: He is the future of the 49ers backfield. He runs hard, he can catch the ball, and he's shown some burst this preseason. This time next offseason I think he will be impossible to get your hands on.

Bernard Pierce: For some reason things are eerily quiet around him. He has a chance to assert himself in Baltimore over the first two games. And Baltimore's system may actually be productive enough to support two fantasy relevant backs.

WR:

Davante Adams: Boykin is beating him out for the 3rd wr spot right now but I expect that to change during the regular season. And even if it doesnt, Cobb and Nelson have had injury problems throughout their history.

Deandre Hopkins: I'm not understanding the lack of hype around this guy. He had a good rookie season and seems like he has the skills to be a top 10 wr in this league. I would snap him up.

Hakeem Nicks: I might be a sucker here but I can't help but be excited by the rac skills he has shown in the preseason. The targets are there for the taking in Indy.

TE:

Jermaine Gresham: He can be had for a song right now and I think he is a free agent at the the end of the year. I think he gets a starting job somewhere and becomes a mid-low end te1 again.

There is probably more but these are the guys that came to mind for me.

 

[Concept Coop]

Yeah I know you're not high on Patterson. He's a special player with the ball in his hands. He's actually just a mediocre wr but get the ball in his hands on bubble screens and hand offs and he's special. The thing is with Patterson he's been doing this for a while and people keep saying he was getting lucky. At some point you have to concede he might just be special.......

He's very special with the ball in his hands. No questioning that. I'm not saying he got lucky, but I'd bet my house that he doesn't score on one out of every 4 rushing attempts again. Without that, his season looks a whole lot like Tavon Austin's.

 

[Concept Coop]

Huh? Wilson's already giving above-baseline production. He was QB9 last year and QB11 the year before. Okay, sure, he was 12th in PPG both years, which would represent right at the baseline. If you do Wilson the courtesy of throwing out the first four starts of his career he was 8th from week 5 to week 17 his rookie year. Either way, two years in the league, two seasons of low-end QB1 production.

He has always been a functionally baseline QB, at least. Whether he's .5 ahead or behind QB12 doesn't really matter.

And that's kind of the point... a first and second year starter in an offense that threw the ball fewer times than any other in the league still gave you startable fantasy production. He's getting better as a player and his team just added one of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL. If his team winds up ranking just bottom 5 in pass attempts instead of bottom 2, that represents 80-100 extra passes a year (at 7 YPA, that's 560-700 more passing yards). At Wilson's current cost, he's all upside. We talk about how rushing production is the huge trump card when it comes to QBs, and only Cam Newton and Robert Griffin have rushed for more yards over the last two years than Russell Wilson. If you use a 30 yard/game threshold, Wilson is one of six qualifiers (Griffin, Newton, Wilson, Kaepernick, Vick, Pryor- pretty much a who's who of rushing QBs). In NFL history, only Cam Newton and Andrew Luck have more fantasy points through two years (yes, fantasy points have been exploding recently so a historical comparison isn't the fairest, but here's a complete list of players to average 20 PPG through two years: Newton, Culpepper, Marino, Warner, RGIII, Luck, Foles, Garcia, Wilson).

Very solid argument, especially when put this way: " A first and second year starter in an offense that threw the ball fewer times than any other in the league still gave you startable fantasy production".

On the other hand, his efficiency is largely tied to lack of volume and the teams ability to pick and choose their gambles. Potentially creating a scenario in which his volume increases, efficiency decreases, and the boost isn't enough to seperate him from the 20 QBs who finish within a point of baseline production or higher--Ben Roethlisberger. Granted, Ben had a couple very nice seasons, but his best doesn't look nearly as productive when placed next to the QB numbers we've seen over the last 2 seasons. And if Ben is the end product, get him for a late 2nd and save the mid-first.

If Wilson is going to prove worthy of his current ADP, considering the NFL trends currently affecting fantasy value, top 7-8 a year+ from now isn't going to do it. I can pay slightly more for Stafford and not have to wait a year+. I can pay much less for a string of Romos--a new one every 2-3 seasons as needed, etc.

ETA: As for the historic comps, it's hard to put much stock in them, as presented. The NFL is starting rookie QBs much more often, and throwing the ball a lot more as across the board. Extend the window to 3 years and I'm sure Andy Dalton has some promising comps as well. Matt Ryan too.

 

[Milkman]

Yeah I know you're not high on Patterson. He's a special player with the ball in his hands. He's actually just a mediocre wr but get the ball in his hands on bubble screens and hand offs and he's special. The thing is with Patterson he's been doing this for a while and people keep saying he was getting lucky. At some point you have to concede he might just be special.......

He's very special with the ball in his hands. No questioning that. I'm not saying he got lucky, but I'd bet my house that he doesn't score on one out of every 4 rushing attempts again. Without that, his season looks a whole lot like Tavon Austin's.

A couple differences. I like Bridgewater moving forward and Patterson projects as more or a prototypical WR1. He had a good preseason and they were going down field to him which isn't his strength. Basically if he can be good at that too the sky is the limit.

 

[Tau837]

Russell Wilson: People are treating him like he's going to be triggering a low-volume passing offense in perpetuity. Troy Aikman aside, name a true franchise quarterback for whom that was the case.

In the past, I've been on board with this. Perhaps it's nothing more than my short attention span, but I don't see the payoff in waiting anymore. I think he's more likely to put up Tony Romo numbers than Drew Brees numbers, even a few years from now--adjusted for league pace, of course. Why pay a mid-first rounder for Wilson when I can get Romo for 3 years for a 2nd? Simple example, but it makes my basic point.

ETA: Or a bit more for Stafford and not have to wait 2 seasons for above baseline production?

Huh? Wilson's already giving above-baseline production. He was QB9 last year and QB11 the year before. Okay, sure, he was 12th in PPG both years, which would represent right at the baseline. If you do Wilson the courtesy of throwing out the first four starts of his career he was 8th from week 5 to week 17 his rookie year. Either way, two years in the league, two seasons of low-end QB1 production.

And that's kind of the point... a first and second year starter in an offense that threw the ball fewer times than any other in the league still gave you startable fantasy production. He's getting better as a player and his team just added one of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL. If his team winds up ranking just bottom 5 in pass attempts instead of bottom 2, that represents 80-100 extra passes a year (at 7 YPA, that's 560-700 more passing yards). At Wilson's current cost, he's all upside. We talk about how rushing production is the huge trump card when it comes to QBs, and only Cam Newton and Robert Griffin have rushed for more yards over the last two years than Russell Wilson. If you use a 30 yard/game threshold, Wilson is one of six qualifiers (Griffin, Newton, Wilson, Kaepernick, Vick, Pryor- pretty much a who's who of rushing QBs). In NFL history, only Cam Newton and Andrew Luck have more fantasy points through two years (yes, fantasy points have been exploding recently so a historical comparison isn't the fairest, but here's a complete list of players to average 20 PPG through two years: Newton, Culpepper, Marino, Warner, RGIII, Luck, Foles, Garcia, Wilson).

And worst case scenario, if you buy Wilson, you get stuck with 10 years of low-end fantasy QB1 play. Obviously low-end QB1 play isn't all that valuable, but that's one heck of a nice downside. Few passers can claim a floor like that.

 

[Concept Coop]

A couple differences. I like Bridgewater moving forward and Patterson projects as more or a prototypical WR1. He had a good preseason and they were going down field to him which isn't his strength. Basically if he can be good at that too the sky is the limit.

I agree with the sky being the limit. He's about as physcially gifted as they come. You're likely a little more confident in him making the needed improvements than I am. Which is fair, of course. It'll be fun to watch what happens.

 

[Tau837]

On the other hand, his efficiency is largely tied to lack of volume and the teams ability to pick and choose their gambles. Potentially creating a scenario in which his volume increases, efficiency decreases, and the boost isn't enough to seperate him from the 20 QBs who finish within a point of baseline production or higher--Ben Roethlisberger. Granted, Ben had a couple very nice seasons, but his best doesn't look nearly as productive when placed next to the QB numbers we've seen over the last 2 seasons. And if Ben is the end product, get him for a late 2nd and save the mid-first.

You state the bolded as if it is fact, but it isn't. It is your speculation. IMO he has the skillset (arm, mobility, running) and makeup (intelligence, leadership, work ethic, character) of a tier 1 QB and is on the cusp of a breakout.

From here forward, the only thing holding him back is situation. But his situation should be vastly improved over last season:

- Wilson with another 19 games of experience plus another offseason of work/study

- Harvin replaces Tate

- Baldwin, Kearse, Willson another year of experience with Wilson, and all demonstrating real talent/potential

- Rookie Richardson has true deep threat potential

- OL should be healthier than last season when they were ravaged with injuries

- Lynch coming off 400+ touch season; Turbin and Michael talented but not proven to be Lynch's equal

And that is just this upcoming season. Look a couple more seasons down the road. Wilson is going to get paid big money. That will take some kind of toll on the roster. Given the investment they will soon make in Wilson, where will they accept a loss in talent? They will still have their core of skill players around him. Odds are they will lose Lynch and the defense will slowly drain talent. Which suggests more need for passing offense.

Meanwhile, within the next 3-5 years, Peyton, Brees, and Brady will likely retire. And others like Eli, Roethlisberger, and Rivers will be nearing retirement. It seems likely that the deep pool of quality fantasy QBs is going to be reduced, which will make young quality QBs even more valuable.

IMO Wilson is a big time buy right now.

 

[Milkman]

A couple differences. I like Bridgewater moving forward and Patterson projects as more or a prototypical WR1. He had a good preseason and they were going down field to him which isn't his strength. Basically if he can be good at that too the sky is the limit.

I agree with the sky being the limit. He's about as physcially gifted as they come. You're likely a little more confident in him making the needed improvements than I am. Which is fair, of course. It'll be fun to watch what happens.

well I did just trade Cobb for Patterson. Haha that probably has something to do with it.

 

[Concept Coop]

You state the bolded as if it is fact, but it isn't. It is your speculation.

Just common speach, like the below from you.

From here forward, the only thing holding him back is situation.

As for the point--I highly doubt Golden Tate, Sindey Rice, and Doug Baldwin ALL rate as top level WRs on a per target basis outside of the system. Wilson either had one of the best WR groups in the league, or the team's passing effeciency stats were scewed. It's illogical to discount the the metrics for his targets, while not doing the same for him.

From here forward, the only thing holding him back is situation. But his situation should be vastly improved over last season:

- Wilson with another 19 games of experience plus another offseason of work/study

- Harvin replaces Tate

- Baldwin, Kearse, Willson another year of experience with Wilson, and all demonstrating real talent/potential

- Rookie Richardson has true deep threat potential

- OL should be healthier than last season when they were ravaged with injuries

- Lynch coming off 400+ touch season; Turbin and Michael talented but not proven to be Lynch's equal

I'm just not convinced that any of this adds up to him ever being more than a top 6-7 guy on a yearly basis. Top 6-7 is functionally baseline. Why give up a mid first rounder for an average starter at the easiest position field, a year+ from now?

Of course, if you think the above leads to him being a top 5 guy, I can't say you're wrong until it does or doesn't happen. I personally just don't see it.

 

[Tau837]

As for the point--I highly doubt Golden Tate, Sindey Rice, and Doug Baldwin ALL rate as top level WRs on a per target basis outside of the system. Wilson either had one of the best WR groups in the league, or the team's passing effeciency stats were scewed. It's illogical to discount the the metrics for his targets, while not doing the same for him.

I'm not following here. I think Wilson is going to break out and become a tier 1 QB. I also think Harvin is an quality WR1, Baldwin is a quality WR2, and Kearse is a quality WR3. As such, I expect them all to have strong metrics relative to their peer groups (i.e., WR1, WR2, WR3).

I think both Tate and Baldwin have been extremely underrated due to the relatively low amount of targets available in the offense the past couple seasons. I think Tate will show that in a higher volume offense. I think Baldwin will continue to put up strong metrics, whether volume stays low or increases.

Sidney Rice had terrible metrics last season, but the rest of Wilson's group was and remains very strong. Most people don't realize it due to low volume.

 

[Concept Coop]

As for the point--I highly doubt Golden Tate, Sindey Rice, and Doug Baldwin ALL rate as top level WRs on a per target basis outside of the system. Wilson either had one of the best WR groups in the league, or the team's passing effeciency stats were scewed. It's illogical to discount the the metrics for his targets, while not doing the same for him.

I'm not following here. I think Wilson is going to break out and become a tier 1 QB. I also think Harvin is an quality WR1, Baldwin is a quality WR2, and Kearse is a quality WR3. As such, I expect them all to have strong metrics relative to their peer groups (i.e., WR1, WR2, WR3).

I think both Tate and Baldwin have been extremely underrated due to the relatively low amount of targets available in the offense the past couple seasons. I think Tate will show that in a higher volume offense. I think Baldwin will continue to put up strong metrics, whether volume stays low or increases.

Sidney Rice had terrible metrics last season, but the rest of Wilson's group was and remains very strong. Most people don't realize it due to low volume.

Sidney Rice ranked 4th in 2012 in AFA's per touch metrics--behind only Calvin, Andre, and VJax.

Golden Tate was 10th that year, ahead of names like Dez, Julio, D. Thomas, J. Nelson, etc.

Doug Baldin was 26th last year, ahead of AJ Green and VJax.

My point was--at least I intended it to be, I may have botched the execution--it's pretty clear to me that the team's passing efficiency metrics were inflated by the situation. There is usually a trade off between volume and efficiency. I don't find it likely that the volume would greatly increase without it affecting the efficiency.

I do see a path to better numbers with an increase in volume, certainly. I just don't project it to get him out of the 7-12 range, personally. Not any time soon, at the very least. I think we're looking at Tony Romo numbers if and when it happens, rather than Drew Brees.

 

[Mookie]

Geno Smith - When he made the effort to run last year (last three games of season), his game took off. There's still a lot of fallout from the Sanchez era and Geno's rookie growing pains, but the reports out of camp have been really good thus far. Geno is on an upward curve.

Robert Woods - Sammy has been nicked up and is still learning. The presence of Mike Williams is also scaring a lot of people away. Woods is going to be the guy working underneath, and he has great feet/hands. In PPR, he's going to put up solid numbers.

Mychal Rivera - Had a solid rookie season as move TE with a bunch of junk QBs. Assuming Schaub plays, Rivera could assume that Owen Daniels type of chemistry with his QB on a team that will be behind a lot. There's also not a lot of competition for targets with that sad bunch of WRs the Raiders have.

 

[Adam Harstad]

ETA: As for the historic comps, it's hard to put much stock in them, as presented. The NFL is starting rookie QBs much more often, and throwing the ball a lot more as across the board. Extend the window to 3 years and I'm sure Andy Dalton has some promising comps as well. Matt Ryan too.

Andy Dalton's 3-year PPG average is lower than Russell Wilson's (he ranks 13th overall, and fails to meet the 20ppg threshold), despite playing in a pass-first offense with the deepest and most talented corps of receiving targets in the NFL.

Again, Russell Wilson is in the worst possible situation for QB production. He's basically this generation's Troy Aikman- caretaker QB on a team with a dominant defense and running game. And yet... AND YET... Russell Wilson already has as many top-10 finishes in two years as Troy Aikman had in his entire flipping career. And Troy Aikman is an anomaly- quarterbacks that talented don't remain second options, historically.

I love RGIII, and you know this, but I do not see any fundamental difference between Griffin and Wilson as dynasty prospects. I'd prefer Griffin, but they're in the same tier. Before the DJax trade, I was kicking around the idea of swapping my RGIII for Sigmund Bloom's Russell Wilson in a dynasty league. Never went through, but both of us were on board with the fact that the two guys are very comparable in terms of dynasty value. The difference is that, right now, the two of them are not comparable in terms of dynasty cost. If I owned neither, I would be targeting Russell Wilson at a huge discount rather than paying full price for RGIII.

 

[Concept Coop]

Andy Dalton's 3-year PPG average is lower than Russell Wilson's (he ranks 13th overall, and fails to meet the 20ppg threshold), despite playing in a pass-first offense with the deepest and most talented corps of receiving targets in the NFL.

Again, Russell Wilson is in the worst possible situation for QB production. He's basically this generation's Troy Aikman- caretaker QB on a team with a dominant defense and running game. And yet... AND YET... Russell Wilson already has as many top-10 finishes in two years as Troy Aikman had in his entire flipping career. And Troy Aikman is an anomaly- quarterbacks that talented don't remain second options, historically.

I love RGIII, and you know this, but I do not see any fundamental difference between Griffin and Wilson as dynasty prospects. I'd prefer Griffin, but they're in the same tier. Before the DJax trade, I was kicking around the idea of swapping my RGIII for Sigmund Bloom's Russell Wilson in a dynasty league. Never went through, but both of us were on board with the fact that the two guys are very comparable in terms of dynasty value. The difference is that, right now, the two of them are not comparable in terms of dynasty cost. If I owned neither, I would be targeting Russell Wilson at a huge discount rather than paying full price for RGIII.

I don't want to come off as avoiding your points--I'm not. But in an attempt to get the crux: Do you think Wilson is a future top 5 fantasy QB on a yearly basis? What needs to happen for him to be? When is it likely to happen?

History looks kind to Wilson, until you restrict the data points. We then stop comparing Wilson to 1980's Troy Aikman and start comparing him to Foles, RG3, Newton, Luck, Ryan, Stafford, Bradford, Dalton, Kaepernick, Flacco etc. His top 10 (not PPG) finishes do little to separate him from that group. Young QBs are bucking history as a whole. It's hard to point to them individually then as functionally historic. Or, use it to project them to outscore their peers at the rate past, functionally historic players did.

We don't know what happens with an increased reliance on Wilson, causing a rise in passing attempts. It sounds like we disagree on the likely outcome, which is fair. I think a lot would need to go his way for him to even be Matthew Stafford on a yearly basis over a 3-4 year window. I don't think it's as simple as: He has Harvin, they'll throw more, look at his place in history--boom! That doesn't bridge the gap between his current output and the output of true advantages at the position, in my opinion.

Joe Flacco was once a promising young, winning QB whose team relied on its defense and running game a great deal. Big Ben too. Volume wasn't enough to make them true difference makers at the position and I am not especially confident that it will for Wilson.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Andy Dalton's 3-year PPG average is lower than Russell Wilson's (he ranks 13th overall, and fails to meet the 20ppg threshold), despite playing in a pass-first offense with the deepest and most talented corps of receiving targets in the NFL.

Again, Russell Wilson is in the worst possible situation for QB production. He's basically this generation's Troy Aikman- caretaker QB on a team with a dominant defense and running game. And yet... AND YET... Russell Wilson already has as many top-10 finishes in two years as Troy Aikman had in his entire flipping career. And Troy Aikman is an anomaly- quarterbacks that talented don't remain second options, historically.

I love RGIII, and you know this, but I do not see any fundamental difference between Griffin and Wilson as dynasty prospects. I'd prefer Griffin, but they're in the same tier. Before the DJax trade, I was kicking around the idea of swapping my RGIII for Sigmund Bloom's Russell Wilson in a dynasty league. Never went through, but both of us were on board with the fact that the two guys are very comparable in terms of dynasty value. The difference is that, right now, the two of them are not comparable in terms of dynasty cost. If I owned neither, I would be targeting Russell Wilson at a huge discount rather than paying full price for RGIII.

I don't want to come off as avoiding your points--I'm not. But in an attempt to get the: Do you think Wilson is a future top 5 fantasy QB on a yearly basis? What needs to happen for him to be? When is it likely to happen?

History looks kind to Wilson, until you restrict the data points. We then stop comparing Wilson to 1980's Troy Aikman and start comparing him to Foles, RG3, Newton, Luck, Ryan, Stafford, Bradford, Dalton, Kaepernick, Flacco etc. His top 10 (not PPG) finishes do little to separate him from that group. Young QBs are bucking history as a whole. Hard to point to them individually then as functionally historic. Or, use it to project them to outscore their peers at the rate past, functionally historic players did.

We don't know what happens with an increased reliance on Wilson, causing a rise in passing attempts. It sounds like we disagree on the likely outcome, which is fair. I think a lot would need to go his way for him to even be Matthew Stafford on a yearly basis over a 3-4 year window. I don't think it's as simple as: He has Harvin, they'll throw more, look at his place in history--boom! That doesn't bridge the gap between his current output and the output of true advantages at the position, in my opinion.

Joe Flacco was once a promising young, winning QB whose team relied on its defense and running game a great deal. Big Ben too. Volume wasn't enough to make them true difference makers at the position and I am not especially confident that it will for Wilson.

By "future top-5 QB on a yearly basis", do you mean he'll finish in the top 5 every year? Because, if so, then no I do not think Wilson is that guy. Other than Aaron Rodgers, there's no one in the NFL I would say that about right now. Rodgers has one of those annual top-5 spots locked down for the next 5+ years, and Wilson will have to compete for one of the remaining four with Cam Newton, RGIII, Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, Nick Foles, and Matt Ryan in the long-term (plus Peyton and Brees in the short-term). That's 7-9 names, and obviously half of them are going to fail to reach the top 5 in any given year. My point is that I don't see Wilson as fundamentally LESS likely to win some of those top-5 finishes than any of the other names I just listed, yet he is currently being valued as if he is. Those guys cost more, which makes Wilson a prime buy target for me. All of the potential, half of the price.

The Joe Flacco comparison laughably misses the point. In six seasons, Joe Flacco has never finished in the top 10 among fantasy quarterbacks. Russell Wilson has never *NOT* finished top-10, because he's one of the biggest rushing threats in the league. Give Joe Flacco 500 rushing yards a year and I bet he'd be perceived a lot differently as a fantasy QB. If your argument is that Russell Wilson might be nothing more than Joe Flacco with wheels, well then, I'm pretty okay with that. "Joe Flacco with wheels" is one hell of a worst-case scenario.

Also, you keep bringing up Matt Stafford. Matt Stafford 2012-2013 was one of two quarterbacks in history to top 1350 attempts over a two-year span. The only other quarterback to do that was... Matt Stafford 2011-2012. He plays with a first-ballot HoF WR. And despite those ridiculous advantages, Stafford's production has been shockingly mediocre. He had a 561 attempt advantage over Wilson, and parlayed that into 50 extra fantasy points. He set an NFL record for single-season pass attempts and finished 11th- ELEVENTH!!!!!- in fantasy scoring. And yet somehow, shockingly, he actually costs MORE than Russell Wilson in dynasty. This baffles me. This is exactly why I am declaring Russell Wilson a huge buy-low. I'm betting Russell Wilson outscores Matt Stafford by a not-insignificant margin over the next three years.

 

[Concept Coop]

My point is that I don't see Wilson as fundamentally LESS likely to win some of those top-5 finishes than any of the other names I just listed, yet he is currently being valued as if he is.

There's our difference of opinion. The rest is nothing more than biased sampling (on both parts).

You think he's likely to be one of 7-8 guys with a legit shot at top 5 PPG numbers on a yearly basis. I think it's more likely that he's one of 10-15 guys with a legit shot at top 7-10 numbers on a yearly basis.

The Joe Flacco comparison laughably misses the point

How does one miss a point they make? I think you may have missed understood the point I was making in bringing him up.

 

[Concept Coop]

Lastly, I'll say this: Flacco with 500 yards on the ground looked a lot better 3 years ago than it does today, and will look much better today than it will 3 years from now.

The QBs coming into the league can run and OCs are taking advantage of it. Mariota, Manziel, Winston, RG3, Newton, Kaepernick, Luck, Wilson, Tebow, Geno, Bortles, Locker, Foles (Kelly)... and it's not slowing down. If you're hoping that 500 yards a season is going to push him over the top, I wouldn't suggest counting on it for very long.

 

[ArlingtonTerp]

getting a bit obvious, but since it wasn't mentioned yet, gotta go with Hurns.

 

[Adam Harstad]

My point is that I don't see Wilson as fundamentally LESS likely to win some of those top-5 finishes than any of the other names I just listed, yet he is currently being valued as if he is.

There's our difference of opinion. The rest is nothing more than biased sampling (on both parts).

You think he's likely to be one of 7-8 guys with a legit shot at top 5 PPG numbers on a yearly basis. I think it's more likely that he's one of 10-15 guys with a legit shot at top 7-10 numbers on a yearly basis.

Setting aside fantasy production entirely for a moment, could you rank your perceptions on the relative talent level of the following QBs: Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Matt Ryan, Colin Kaepernick, Matt Stafford (as well as anyone else you want to include in the comparison)

The reason I ask is because I've mentioned several times in recent months that I'm more of a "general heuristics" guy than a "specific projections" guy, and one of my heuristics is that, over a long enough timeline and with a large enough sample, production tends to correlate highly with talent. One of the big reasons I'm high on Wilson is because I'm quite high on his talent. I think he's a true franchise quarterback, and in my experience, guys like that have typically produced at X level. I think that Matt Stafford is not as talented, and so I would expect his production in the long run to trend more towards Y level. There are exceptions (I've already mentioned Troy Aikman, and Marc Bulger / Matt Schaub spring to mind as guys who outproduced their talent level for an extended period of time), but I typically don't find it to be particularly profitable to try to identify the exceptions ahead of time.

 

[Concept Coop]

Setting aside fantasy production entirely for a moment, could you rank your perceptions on the relative talent level of the following QBs: Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Matt Ryan, Colin Kaepernick, Matt Stafford (as well as anyone else you want to include in the comparison)

I don't agree with the premise. But, to answer your question, I do think Wilson is a better NFL QB. Talent is too subjective, beyond my saying that.

The hobby doesn't base its reward system on talent or winning football games, however. It rewards raw production. In every healthy season of Stafford's career, he has thrown for at least 4,600 yards and an average of 30 TDs. As a fantasy owner, that's what I care about; not SB wins, not the clutch factor, not a player's leadership qualities. It doesn't punish for passing attemps, YPA, YPR, or choke jobs.

I believe Stafford is more capable of throwing for 5,000 yards in a season--both as a player and a fantasy asset, taking situation into account.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Setting aside fantasy production entirely for a moment, could you rank your perceptions on the relative talent level of the following QBs: Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Matt Ryan, Colin Kaepernick, Matt Stafford (as well as anyone else you want to include in the comparison)

I don't agree with the premise. But, to answer your question, I do think Wilson is a better NFL QB. Talent is too subjective, beyond my saying that.

The hobby doesn't base its reward system on talent or winning football games, however. It rewards raw production. In every healthy season of Stafford's career, he has thrown for at least 4,600 yards and an average of 30 TDs. As a fantasy owner, that's what I care about; not SB wins, not the clutch factor, not a player's leadership qualities. It doesn't punish for passing attemps, YPA, YPR, or choke jobs.

I believe Stafford is more capable of throwing for 5,000 yards in a season--both as a player and a fantasy asset, taking situation into account.

I unequivocally agree with your final statement. I would also submit that I think Russell Wilson is more capable of throwing for 4,000 yards in a season and rushing for an additional 500 yards. Which results in an equal or greater number of fantasy points.

In 2012, Matt Stafford threw an NFL-record 727 passes for a Maddenesque 4967 yards. He even chipped in a career-best 126 rushing yards and an impressive 4 touchdowns on the ground. And he was still outscored by a rookie 3rd-round quarterback with no receivers of note playing in a run-first offense.

 

[Concept Coop]

I unequivocally agree with your final statement. I would also submit that I think Russell Wilson is more capable of throwing for 4,000 yards in a season and rushing for an additional 500 yards. Which results in an equal or greater number of fantasy points.

In 2012, Matt Stafford threw an NFL-record 727 passes for a Maddenesque 4967 yards. He even chipped in a career-best 126 rushing yards and an impressive 4 touchdowns on the ground. And he was still outscored by a rookie 3rd-round quarterback with no receivers of note playing in a run-first offense.

Stafford has never been outscored by Wilson in my leagues (checked 3). And 2012 was an outlier for Stafford--Calvin could tear his ACL tomorrow and we'd all project more than 20 TDs.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I unequivocally agree with your final statement. I would also submit that I think Russell Wilson is more capable of throwing for 4,000 yards in a season and rushing for an additional 500 yards. Which results in an equal or greater number of fantasy points.

In 2012, Matt Stafford threw an NFL-record 727 passes for a Maddenesque 4967 yards. He even chipped in a career-best 126 rushing yards and an impressive 4 touchdowns on the ground. And he was still outscored by a rookie 3rd-round quarterback with no receivers of note playing in a run-first offense.

Stafford has never been outscored by Wilson in my leagues (checked 3). And 2012 was an outlier for Stafford--Calvin could tear his ACL tomorrow and we'd all project more than 20 TDs.

I was going off of PFR, though I see FBGs has Stafford 9th and Wilson 11th that year.

2012 was an outlier for Wilson too, though. For how many players has their rookie year been indicative of their true level of production? Again, he's been a fixture in the top-10 with barely 400 pass attempts and no receivers of note.

That's just it. According to the HDD, the difference between Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson over the last two years was just 1.6 points per game. Which way do you believe the winds of regression are blowing with Matt Stafford? Which way are they blowing with Russell Wilson? How big do you expect that gap to remain going forward? According to DLF's ADP data, Stafford is going with the 48th pick and Wilson is going with the 103rd pick in startups- a late 4th rounder vs. a late 9th rounder. Do you think the production gap is commensurate with that huge gaping divide in cost of acquisition? Russell Wilson's ADP is about as close to Andy Dalton's (56 spot gap) as it is to Matt Stafford's (54 spot gap). And that's ignoring the exponential decline in pick value (meaning in practical terms, the market currently says Wilson is substantially closer in value to Andy Dalton than he is to Matt Stafford). How can anyone see that and not immediately think that either Wilson is incredibly underpriced, Stafford is incredibly overpriced, or both?

 

[Concept Coop]

I unequivocally agree with your final statement. I would also submit that I think Russell Wilson is more capable of throwing for 4,000 yards in a season and rushing for an additional 500 yards. Which results in an equal or greater number of fantasy points.

In 2012, Matt Stafford threw an NFL-record 727 passes for a Maddenesque 4967 yards. He even chipped in a career-best 126 rushing yards and an impressive 4 touchdowns on the ground. And he was still outscored by a rookie 3rd-round quarterback with no receivers of note playing in a run-first offense.

Stafford has never been outscored by Wilson in my leagues (checked 3). And 2012 was an outlier for Stafford--Calvin could tear his ACL tomorrow and we'd all project more than 20 TDs.

I was going off of PFR, though I see FBGs has Stafford 9th and Wilson 11th that year.

2012 was an outlier for Wilson too, though. For how many players has their rookie year been indicative of their true level of production? Again, he's been a fixture in the top-10 with barely 400 pass attempts and no receivers of note.

That's just it. According to the HDD, the difference between Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson over the last two years was just 1.6 points per game. Which way do you believe the winds of regression are blowing with Matt Stafford? Which way are they blowing with Russell Wilson? How big do you expect that gap to remain going forward? According to DLF's ADP data, Stafford is going with the 48th pick and Wilson is going with the 103rd pick in startups- a late 4th rounder vs. a late 9th rounder. Do you think the production gap is commensurate with that huge gaping divide in cost of acquisition? Russell Wilson's ADP is about as close to Andy Dalton's (56 spot gap) as it is to Matt Stafford's (54 spot gap). And that's ignoring the exponential decline in pick value (meaning in practical terms, the market currently says Wilson is substantially closer in value to Andy Dalton than he is to Matt Stafford). How can anyone see that and not immediately think that either Wilson is incredibly underpriced, Stafford is incredibly overpriced, or both?

There is a reason you're using the last two years, however: to omit Stafford's best season and include the outlier. Change that to 3 and it's not close. He has better tools now than he's ever had as well.

Using DLF's ADP--I do agree that Stafford is overpriced and Wilson is under priced. I just don't see those results in the actual leagues I play in, or see it represented in the trades I see.

I respect your call and having to defend my stance has made me think--I appreciate that and acknowledge some very strong points. But it really does come down to this: I think Stafford is going to prove more valuable to my fantasy team over a reasonable window (3+ exit value?). I see a solid gap this year--at least on par with last season's--and I am not bullish enough on Wilson ever being a top 5 guy soon enough or often enough to bridge that gap. Give me the few point PPG advantage over the next two seasons, which I am comfortable projecting, and live with those results.