kenbrell thompkins (1 Viewer)

[stbugs]

Probably should be in the dynasty trade thread, but I know Kenbrell people want to see this:

Daryl Richardson

Kenbrell Thompkins

for

Jamal Charles

Not involved in the trade. 12 team ppr dynasty 1/2/3/1/1

Wow. That is a ridiculous trade. From what we have seen so far of Richardson, I don't think he has a snowball's chance in hell of being a perennial top 10 RB. Charles is already there and in some people's eyes he has the ability to be the top RB. Charles is also 25, so he isn't old. Thompkins would have to be Julio Jones or AJ Green to make this trade even remotely close to a good trade and while there is nice hype, there is no track record. Even with the hype, I don't think anyone is saying he is going to be in the elite tier of WRs.

I just did a PPR 12 team draft and Charles went 1.4 and Richardson went 4.8 and Thompkins went 9.10. Taking into account keepers, Richardson was more like the 5.9 pick and Thompkins 11.4. If you tried to offer picks 5.9 and 11.4 for 1.4, you would be laughed at.

I hated the trade when I first saw it. The guy that dealt away Charles does crazy moves and they often payoff for him, but this one is going to haunt him.

I don't play dynasty, but trading a proven top shelf RB for two unproven guys whose ceilings don't even appear to be as high as Charles' ceiling is a lot of risk for no reward. As you put it with crazy moves, it seems like he went to the well once too often. He would have to be Jim Carrey one in a million lucky for this trade to pay off.

 

[Bri]

http://www.patspulpit.com/2013/8/27/4662852/kenbrell-thompkins-a-star-in-the-making

"Since [Thompkins] got here he's been so willing and eager to do whatever it takes," said Brady during his postgame press conference. "He's done a great job."

Thompkins has enjoyed several reps both in practice and during games; he was targeted 12 times on Thursday night.

According to Pro Football Focus, Thompkins has participated in 120 of the 226 (53 percent) offensive snaps for the Patriots this preseason, trailing only second-round pick Aaron Dobson, who has played 139.

He also leads all New England receivers with 13 grabs for 142 yards in preseason play.

But perhaps what is most impressive about Thompkins is his ability to grasp the complex Patriots offense in such a short amount of time. Remember, veteran receivers Joey Galloway—who had a brief stint in New England in 2009—and Chad Ochocinco (2011) both struggled with the playbook and it showed in their lack of on-field production.

Thompkins has shown an ability to consistently get off the line in press coverage, creating space between himself and defenders.

But what makes him so valuable is his versatility. In the absence of Danny Amendola on Thursday night, Thompkins worked out of the slot as well as at his familiar position at split-end.

He could very well find himself in the role occupied by Deion Branch during his prime years with the Patriots—a reliable pass-catcher who can run crisp, intermediate routes while occasionally stretching the field.

 

[Bri]

http://nfl.si.com/2013/08/26/nfl-under-the-radar-rookies/

another:

http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/9604305/fantasy-football-2013-assessing-fantasy-value-patriots-rookie-pass-catchers

If you follow the NFL closely, you've heard this story before.

But it bears repeating.

Tom Brady threw 230 completions to wide receivers -- just a little more than 57 percent of his 402 in total -- in the 2012 regular season. Just 21 -- roughly 9 percent -- were caught by players still on the New England Patriots' roster.

And that doesn't count the 51 catches for Aaron Hernandez (released), 40 for Danny Woodhead (now a Charger) and 55 for tight end Rob Gronkowski, who remains sidelined as he recovers from a June back procedure.

So, as the Patriots get ready to take the field against the Buffalo Bills on Sept. 8, it's likely that Brady will be without his top five pass-catchers from last season, a year in which the Patriots topped the league in scoring offense.

But the sense of panic that once emanated from New Englanders concerning the inexperienced pass-catching group has faded away, with a new cast of pass-catchers surfacing for the Patriots and infusing optimism and hope.

Danny Amendola, formerly a Ram, projects to be the top receiver in this offense, and Gronkowski will play a featured role upon his return. Julian Edelman, who owns those 21 catches from 2012, fits into the equation, as well.

But let's not focus on the veterans.

The rage in New England is all about four rookies, two of whom weren't even drafted.

At receiver, three names have emerged: second-round pick Aaron Dobson, fourth-rounderJosh Boyce and Kenbrell Thompkins, who cost the Patriots all of $5,000 in guaranteed money to sign to their roster as an undrafted free agent.

Tight end Zach Sudfeld, whose 6-foot-7, 260-pound frame makes him hard to miss, is already being called "Studfeld" by some of his own teammates. Despite a productive career as a favorite target of Colin Kaepernick's at Nevada, he also wasn't drafted (injuries and age played a big part in this).

 

[PatsFanCT]

I'm gonna make a bold prediction: At least 1 WR for the Jets will have a better year than KT.

Maybe more than 1.

I will take up to $500 of action on that claim, at 1-1. Interested?

You can put me down for $150.00 of that action. I'll even let you choose PPR or standard. If you win, you will get paid.

I'm in for $200, PPR or standard.

Do you really think he is going to take that bet? A clearly losing bet with people he doesn't know on the other side of the us? lol He's blowing smoke.

I would have taken the bet a couple days ago, but after last nights game, the Jets may be even worse than I thought.

Taken it? You offered it. It was accepted. You didn't ever rescind the offer. And it was accepted in the same manner (via message board posting) in which it was offered.

You need to man up. You want to weasel out of a bet because you realize you might lose?

Betting, how does it work?

No. It's like when a bookie offers a line. That line changes. It's like the line changed, and everyone is demanding I honor the old line. Not doing it. So, let it go. I'm done arguing with you idiots about it.

How exactly did the line change? You had no idea who the starting QB was going to be when you offered the bet, and you don't know now. Everything else was exactly the same.

 

[OG_GF]

As I said, I am done arguing about this.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

As I said, I am done arguing about this.

 

[DukeBroadway]

I was able to draft Thompkins in both my leagues. In one league I got him in the 15th round. A week later, I grabbed him in the 10th I think. I needed to improve my roster in the league in which i drafted him 15th. I was approached by a team in need of a RB, initially wanting Sproles.

My pre-trade rb/wrs: start 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 flex

rb: charles, sproles, lacy, bradshaw, dwyer

wr: green, boldin, v.brown, thompkins, mccluster

I ended up trading Bradshaw/Thompkins for V.Cruz/Packers D. I will end up dropping the Pack to find a back up rb that hopes to get some chances. I really think Thompkins will perform well. I just couldnt pass on getting Cruz.

 

[Raider Nation]

As I said, I am done arguing about this.

You only have 84 posts. Grab a new alias and start from scratch. That was the weakest move I've ever seen on this board.

 

[SameSongNDance]

As I said, I am done arguing about this.

You only have 84 posts. Grab a new alias and start from scratch. That was the weakest move I've ever seen on this board.

 

[OG_GF]

As I said, I am done arguing about this.

You only have 84 posts. Grab a new alias and start from scratch. That was the weakest move I've ever seen on this board.

Well, than you are an idiot. Nobody accepted the bet before the Jets game, and then Sanchez goes down, and Geno looked horrible, and the coach is trying to defend himself after a pre-season game, and then a bunch of people wanted to accept the bet. Too late. If some people don't understand that, I don't care what they think anyway.

 

[OG_GF]

Seriously. I promise you, I do a lot more gambling than you do. I promise you, I understand how these things work, better than you do. So go troll someone else. The point I was making, and a lot of people here agree with me, is that Thompkins is an unproven commodity. He's high risk, high reward. He's either going to be starter for you every week, or he'll be on your bench all year. If you are drafting him in the 9th round, that's too early.

If you are really interested in making a prop bet, PM me and we can come up with something, otherwise, stop trying to derail this thread.

 

[Bri]

Soooo about Kenbrell....

 

[OG_GF]

Soooo about Kenbrell....

I think we'll have a much better idea about him in about 3 weeks. Until then, it's all speculation. I still think he is a good draft pick in the 12th and beyond, but with all the hype, you will have to overpay.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Seriously. I promise you, I do a lot more gambling than you do. I promise you, I understand how these things work, better than you do. So go troll someone else. The point I was making, and a lot of people here agree with me, is that Thompkins is an unproven commodity. He's high risk, high reward. He's either going to be starter for you every week, or he'll be on your bench all year. If you are drafting him in the 9th round, that's too early.

If you are really interested in making a prop bet, PM me and we can come up with something, otherwise, stop trying to derail this thread.

 

[Raider Nation]

Seriously. I promise you, I do a lot more gambling than you do. I promise you, I understand how these things work, better than you do. So go troll someone else. The point I was making, and a lot of people here agree with me, is that Thompkins is an unproven commodity. He's high risk, high reward. He's either going to be starter for you every week, or he'll be on your bench all year. If you are drafting him in the 9th round, that's too early.

If you are really interested in making a prop bet, PM me and we can come up with something, otherwise, stop trying to derail this thread.

My God, everything you type turns to sh-t. Maybe we should have a sig bet on this one too?

Who posted in: FFA Wagering ThreadMember name - PostsRaider Nation 6338Doctor Detroit 4163modogg 3451The Ref 3414ChainsawU 3287John Bender 3174lumpy19 3029Aaron Rudnicki 1787BRONG 1716mquinnjr 1557tjnc09 1469Good Posting Judge 1395MarshallPlan 1379got_nugs 1292derek245583 1263gussy 1230Angry Beavers 1191Tiger Fan 1170optionmaven 1127JerseyToughGuys 1112bmj87 1056Clorox 879Frostillicus 808Man In The Box 727nittanylion 723Plorfu 712TheWick 687D-BO 684TheGooRoo 683culdeus 676loser 654Guster 631Billy Bats 622Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll 552[icon] 544gmbacm 503

 

[OG_GF]

I'm putting you on ignore.

 

[Raider Nation]

Of course you are.

And you turning cash bets into sig bets after all of your ridiculous chest-thumping due to the fact that "oddmakers change numbers" ( ) is beyond comical. You made a stupid offer. People took you up on it and you ran away. Everyone would respect you more if you manned up and owned it.

ETA: I'm done now. Apologies to everyone else.

 

[Joe McGee]

Seriously. I promise you, I do a lot more gambling than you do. I promise you, I understand how these things work, better than you do. So go troll someone else. The point I was making, and a lot of people here agree with me, is that Thompkins is an unproven commodity. He's high risk, high reward. He's either going to be starter for you every week, or he'll be on your bench all year. If you are drafting him in the 9th round, that's too early.

If you are really interested in making a prop bet, PM me and we can come up with something, otherwise, stop trying to derail this thread.

My God, everything you type turns to sh-t. Maybe we should have a sig bet on this one too?

Who posted in: FFA Wagering ThreadMember name - PostsRaider Nation 6338Doctor Detroit 4163modogg 3451The Ref 3414ChainsawU 3287John Bender 3174lumpy19 3029Aaron Rudnicki 1787BRONG 1716mquinnjr 1557tjnc09 1469Good Posting Judge 1395MarshallPlan 1379got_nugs 1292derek245583 1263gussy 1230Angry Beavers 1191Tiger Fan 1170optionmaven 1127JerseyToughGuys 1112bmj87 1056Clorox 879Frostillicus 808Man In The Box 727nittanylion 723Plorfu 712TheWick 687D-BO 684TheGooRoo 683culdeus 676loser 654Guster 631Billy Bats 622Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll 552[icon] 544gmbacm 503

 

[DukeBroadway]

Love is in the air.

 

[got_nugs]

Seriously. I promise you, I do a lot more gambling than you do. I promise you, I understand how these things work, better than you do. So go troll someone else. The point I was making, and a lot of people here agree with me, is that Thompkins is an unproven commodity. He's high risk, high reward. He's either going to be starter for you every week, or he'll be on your bench all year. If you are drafting him in the 9th round, that's too early.

If you are really interested in making a prop bet, PM me and we can come up with something, otherwise, stop trying to derail this thread.

My God, everything you type turns to sh-t. Maybe we should have a sig bet on this one too?

Who posted in: FFA Wagering ThreadMember name - PostsRaider Nation 6338Doctor Detroit 4163modogg 3451The Ref 3414ChainsawU 3287John Bender 3174lumpy19 3029Aaron Rudnicki 1787BRONG 1716mquinnjr 1557tjnc09 1469Good Posting Judge 1395MarshallPlan 1379got_nugs 1292derek245583 1263gussy 1230Angry Beavers 1191Tiger Fan 1170optionmaven 1127JerseyToughGuys 1112bmj87 1056Clorox 879Frostillicus 808Man In The Box 727nittanylion 723Plorfu 712TheWick 687D-BO 684TheGooRoo 683culdeus 676loser 654Guster 631Billy Bats 622Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll 552[icon] 544gmbacm 503

Wait...Dought Man? This you? Where's my hundo?

The promise is the best part.

 

[Raider Nation]

Heat/Pacers bet, right? I thought Dought Man paid up?

 

[Run It Up]

Just took him tonight at the 9.03 as my WR5, earliest Ive taken him and the earliest ive seen him taken. Standard scoring 10 team.

 

[Raider Nation]

Just took him tonight at the 9.03 as my WR5, earliest Ive taken him and the earliest ive seen him taken. Standard scoring 10 team.

Doesn't seem unreasonable at all. Even guys who don't follow preseason closely have caught wind of him by now.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Heat/Pacers bet, right? I thought Dought Man paid up?

 

[oukurt]

Anyone who has had drafts in the past couple of days, or has one in the next few days, please let us know where he is going. I'm equally interested in redrafts and keeper leagues.

RN - In a 4 keep league/12 teams/ppr he went 9.01 Monday night.

 

[oukurt]

Curious- what round 2014 pick would you give for him right now?

Any thought on this? Anyone buying?

Offered what should be a late 2014 rookie 2nd and 3rd for him. I like what I see.

 

[monkeysee]

I'm gonna make a bold prediction: At least 1 WR for the Jets will have a better year than KT.

Maybe more than 1.

I will take up to $500 of action on that claim, at 1-1. Interested?

You can put me down for $150.00 of that action. I'll even let you choose PPR or standard. If you win, you will get paid.

I'm in for $200, PPR or standard.

Do you really think he is going to take that bet? A clearly losing bet with people he doesn't know on the other side of the us? lol He's blowing smoke.

I would have taken the bet a couple days ago, but after last nights game, the Jets may be even worse than I thought.

Taken it? You offered it. It was accepted. You didn't ever rescind the offer. And it was accepted in the same manner (via message board posting) in which it was offered.

You need to man up. You want to weasel out of a bet because you realize you might lose?

Betting, how does it work?

No. It's like when a bookie offers a line. That line changes. It's like the line changed, and everyone is demanding I honor the old line. Not doing it. So, let it go. I'm done arguing with you idiots about it.

This guy isn't the type to honor a wager anyway. Be glad he wimped out.

 

[monkeysee]

As I said, I am done arguing about this.

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

As I said, I am done arguing about this.

You only have 84 posts. Grab a new alias and start from scratch. That was the weakest move I've ever seen on this board.

Well, than you are an idiot. Nobody accepted the bet before the Jets game, and then Sanchez goes down, and Geno looked horrible, and the coach is trying to defend himself after a pre-season game, and then a bunch of people wanted to accept the bet. Too late. If some people don't understand that, I don't care what they think anyway.

I beg to differ.......Pg 9 of this thread. Aug 23. The Jets played on the 24th. I said I would take you up on the bet if we lived in the same area.

 

[Hoss Style]

Well...

Apparently not everyone is on the KT bandwagon yet.

He went undrafted in my buddies league yesterday - 10 teams.

Admittedly, it's a very casual ESPN work league, but I'm surprised he didn't get at least a late round flier. I asked him why KT was still available and he told me that he would have snagged him but there were a few other players that should have already been off the board that he couldn't pass.

It looks like the really casual leagues are still in the dark about him.

 

[kegger]

I could see a 10 teamer with 4 WR's an 1-2 TE's per averagge on a team being at that spot

to be on the "edge" of not taking Thompkins, that would get at around about the WR40 mark..

(add in if it's a kick return league would push other WR's up the charts)

My main league the WR40 I have listed is Hakeem Nicks, I would probably lean Nicks way there.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I'm putting you on ignore.

THERE HE IS!

 

[Tackling Dummies]

Soooo about Kenbrell....

I think we'll have a much better idea about him in about 3 weeks. Until then, it's all speculation. I still think he is a good draft pick in the 12th and beyond, but with all the hype, you will have to overpay.

3 weeks is too late, the train is leaving the station. Not knocking you, but at a point in any auction/draft, you are targeting and acquiring upside plays and you can step down from the "12th round is safe" stance since your draft is well into that phase (and mostly out of it) as there will be much lesser options. Overpaying in the 9th or 10th is such a minimal price that it's not worth the hand wringing.

 

[rickyg]

Guys...really? I leave the thread or a few days to come back and read like 50 posts completely unrelated to the topic of the thread.

Can we just keep the discussion to fantasy football and kenbrell thompkins, please? A lot of drafts coming up and people are coming to this thread or pertinent info and opinions on the kid.

Everyone should lay off OG. What he did was my that egregious. He had an opinion on KT and stuck with it. A little silly to propose a monetary bet on a football message board with people you've never met before but I'm sure you have all forgiven other people for doing much worse to you.

So find it in your hearts to leave the guy alone and let's get back to what made this thread great in the first place: this year's Alfred Morris of WRs!

 

[stbugs]

Guys...really? I leave the thread or a few days to come back and read like 50 posts completely unrelated to the topic of the thread.

Can we just keep the discussion to fantasy football and kenbrell thompkins, please? A lot of drafts coming up and people are coming to this thread or pertinent info and opinions on the kid.

Everyone should lay off OG. What he did was my that egregious. He had an opinion on KT and stuck with it. A little silly to propose a monetary bet on a football message board with people you've never met before but I'm sure you have all forgiven other people for doing much worse to you.

So find it in your hearts to leave the guy alone and let's get back to what made this thread great in the first place: this year's Alfred Morris of WRs!

Its getting ridiculous. Love this gem a few posts above.

I beg to differ.......Pg 9 of this thread. Aug 23. The Jets played on the 24th. I said I would take you up on the bet if we lived in the same area.

OG made a stupid bet that people jumped on after the Jets played and his bet looked even worse. Now we have someone saying the bet was accepted because he WOULD have taken the bet if they lived near each other? Why not just go to your local bookie and tell him that you would have made a bet last week but you were out of town and see if he will pay you. Let's get back on topic.

 

[PatsFanCT]

Seriously. I promise you, I do a lot more gambling than you do. I promise you, I understand how these things work, better than you do. So go troll someone else. The point I was making, and a lot of people here agree with me, is that Thompkins is an unproven commodity. He's high risk, high reward. He's either going to be starter for you every week, or he'll be on your bench all year. If you are drafting him in the 9th round, that's too early.

If you are really interested in making a prop bet, PM me and we can come up with something, otherwise, stop trying to derail this thread.

My God, everything you type turns to sh-t. Maybe we should have a sig bet on this one too?

Who posted in: FFA Wagering ThreadMember name - PostsRaider Nation 6338Doctor Detroit 4163modogg 3451The Ref 3414ChainsawU 3287John Bender 3174lumpy19 3029Aaron Rudnicki 1787BRONG 1716mquinnjr 1557tjnc09 1469Good Posting Judge 1395MarshallPlan 1379got_nugs 1292derek245583 1263gussy 1230Angry Beavers 1191Tiger Fan 1170optionmaven 1127JerseyToughGuys 1112bmj87 1056Clorox 879Frostillicus 808Man In The Box 727nittanylion 723Plorfu 712TheWick 687D-BO 684TheGooRoo 683culdeus 676loser 654Guster 631Billy Bats 622Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll 552[icon] 544gmbacm 503

He would have taken you up on a prop bet, but everything changed when he saw 6338 posts in the wagering thread.

 

[Mr E]

Soooo about Kenbrell....

I think we'll have a much better idea about him in about 3 weeks. Until then, it's all speculation. I still think he is a good draft pick in the 12th and beyond, but with all the hype, you will have to overpay.

3 weeks is too late, the train is leaving the station. Not knocking you, but at a point in any auction/draft, you are targeting and acquiring upside plays and you can step down from the "12th round is safe" stance since your draft is well into that phase (and mostly out of it) as there will be much lesser options. Overpaying in the 9th or 10th is such a minimal price that it's not worth the hand wringing.

I took him in the 8th and I'm happy with it. I was weak on WR since I started RB RB RB TE and I felt that KT has a great situation with limitless upside.

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

Guys...really? I leave the thread or a few days to come back and read like 50 posts completely unrelated to the topic of the thread.

Can we just keep the discussion to fantasy football and kenbrell thompkins, please? A lot of drafts coming up and people are coming to this thread or pertinent info and opinions on the kid.

Everyone should lay off OG. What he did was my that egregious. He had an opinion on KT and stuck with it. A little silly to propose a monetary bet on a football message board with people you've never met before but I'm sure you have all forgiven other people for doing much worse to you.

So find it in your hearts to leave the guy alone and let's get back to what made this thread great in the first place: this year's Alfred Morris of WRs!

Its getting ridiculous. Love this gem a few posts above.

I beg to differ.......Pg 9 of this thread. Aug 23. The Jets played on the 24th. I said I would take you up on the bet if we lived in the same area.

OG made a stupid bet that people jumped on after the Jets played and his bet looked even worse. Now we have someone saying the bet was accepted because he WOULD have taken the bet if they lived near each other? Why not just go to your local bookie and tell him that you would have made a bet last week but you were out of town and see if he will pay you. Let's get back on topic.

And so what exactly is your post contributing here again? Nothing? Check. Since OG was clearly talking out of his 4th point of contact, there is no way a person in their right mind would bet with a clown from a chat board with no guarantee of payment, which is why I said what I did. But you also appear to be someone comfortable with talking out of your a## as well.

 

[OG_GF]

Soooo about Kenbrell....

I think we'll have a much better idea about him in about 3 weeks. Until then, it's all speculation. I still think he is a good draft pick in the 12th and beyond, but with all the hype, you will have to overpay.

3 weeks is too late, the train is leaving the station. Not knocking you, but at a point in any auction/draft, you are targeting and acquiring upside plays and you can step down from the "12th round is safe" stance since your draft is well into that phase (and mostly out of it) as there will be much lesser options. Overpaying in the 9th or 10th is such a minimal price that it's not worth the hand wringing.

My point is, in a recent draft I took Golden Tate as my WR5. We have a better idea of where he is at. I would much rather have Tate.

 

[HurryUpSundays]

This thread has gotten out of hand.

With all due respect, you guys should've taken this to emails or PMs.

Just silly.

 

[Mr E]

I agree. This thread is trashed. No one cares about your bets. Hopefully the admin will remove all the unrelated posts.

We are a week away from football season, and we should talk/argue more about football, not whether someone should make this bet, or why they didn't make that bet.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Soooo about Kenbrell....

I think we'll have a much better idea about him in about 3 weeks. Until then, it's all speculation. I still think he is a good draft pick in the 12th and beyond, but with all the hype, you will have to overpay.

3 weeks is too late, the train is leaving the station. Not knocking you, but at a point in any auction/draft, you are targeting and acquiring upside plays and you can step down from the "12th round is safe" stance since your draft is well into that phase (and mostly out of it) as there will be much lesser options. Overpaying in the 9th or 10th is such a minimal price that it's not worth the hand wringing.

I took him in the 8th and I'm happy with it. I was weak on WR since I started RB RB RB TE and I felt that KT has a great situation with limitless upside.

I don't think he's worth it, but from current data it doesn't look like you overpaid by much if any. We all have players we believe in and take a little early. If Thompkins is the one for you, you could do worse.

 

[Hoss Style]

Arguments on a message board... *gasp*

It happens. Still lots of good stuff here. People disagree.

And yes, my post contributes nothing to the topic, other than to say every thread will have posts that contribute nothing to the topic. I would have thoroughly enjoyed watching that side bet play out. It didn't happen, the guy got raked over the coals for backing out and now we move on...

Back to that KT guy -

 

[Mr E]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48WAvzxPr50

Highly impressive.

Before seeing these Lions game highlights I'd only read the hype. He gets off the line unbelievably well and seems to have decent mitts. If he locks down the #2 position and they continue to get him the ball, this kid is going to be an absolute STEAL for those of us who got him before this game.

You have to love those catches in traffic he made. He's all hands with those passes.

the hands and the ability to get open....some really nice moves at the line to create separation and if you give Brady a crease he's going to throw you the ball all day long. I didn't get to see that game but read about it and peoples reactions. I was thinking of maybe sniffing around and seeing if anyone was interested in him but I just might put him in my pocket for a bit and see how does.

I'm bumping this post to get this thread back on track.

I recommend watching the video if you haven't already. Most notable to me is how KT moves off the line. He just toasts the DBs. Small sample size I know, but just gives me hope that this guy will fit nicely into this offense.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

We all know the deal about the change of NE WR/TEs this season. Let's try to clarify what would be Thompkins' floor/ceiling , assuming he is the every game starter.

Assuming Brady attempts 550-585 passes.

Noise aside, let's duplicate the Z targets from last season (130) and give them to Thompkins. I am ignoring Branch's 29 targets, they'd have torches and pitchforks if we give them to Thompkins.

A decent, but not outrageous catch ratio is 62%, giving him 80 receptions.

Lloyd avg 12.3 per last season, let's round it to 13 for the sake of this and go from there. 1040 yards (984 yards using 12.3 per).

TDs are random, picking a medium 6 TDs (not getting into slicing up Woodhead, Hernandez, etc. scoring plays).

It's never as simple and swapping out what was for what will be, but 80/1000/6 (to me) seems like a sweet spot and can be an attainable number.

Ceiling is bumping his avg to 14 and reception to 85 (around 1200) and TD to 9.

Somewhere between this (+1PPR 200 point season) and the current FBG projection is a big gap.

COME AT ME BRO!

 

[gruecd]

Went at 9.06 (WR50) in my 12-team no-TE-required PPR league last night, ahead of guys like Britt, Blackmon, and Lance Moore. Too early, IMHO.

 

[Bayhawks]

We all know the deal about the change of NE WR/TEs this season. Let's try to clarify what would be Thompkins' floor/ceiling , assuming he is the every game starter.

Assuming Brady attempts 550-585 passes.

Noise aside, let's duplicate the Z targets from last season (130) and give them to Thompkins. I am ignoring Branch's 29 targets, they'd have torches and pitchforks if we give them to Thompkins.

A decent, but not outrageous catch ratio is 62%, giving him 80 receptions.

Lloyd avg 12.3 per last season, let's round it to 13 for the sake of this and go from there. 1040 yards (984 yards using 12.3 per).

TDs are random, picking a medium 6 TDs (not getting into slicing up Woodhead, Hernandez, etc. scoring plays).

It's never as simple and swapping out what was for what will be, but 80/1000/6 (to me) seems like a sweet spot and can be an attainable number.

Ceiling is bumping his avg to 14 and reception to 85 (around 1200) and TD to 9.

Somewhere between this (+1PPR 200 point season) and the current FBG projection is a big gap.

COME AT ME BRO!

OKAY, BRO!

Let's start with your assumptions.

1) you are projecting Brady for 550-585 passes, when he threw 638 last year, yet you arbitrarily give him the "Z" receivers targets from last year. Nevermind that the percentage of the "Z" receivers targets could be closer to 112 targets than 130 (using your 550-585 pass attempts projection)

2) There were only 5 WRs last year who received the number of targets you are projecting for Thompkins (130) with the catch rate you're predicting (62%).

3) There were only 8 NFL WRs who recorded the number of catches (80) that you are projecting, to go along with the YPR that you projected (13.0).

4) Thompkins appears to be more of the underneath/intermediate type WR, based on reports, and his performance in pre-season. His YPR in preseason is 10.9, not 13.0.

**BTW, if you are "rounding" Lloyd's 12.3 YPR from last year, it would become 12.0, not 13.0**

So, if you are logical and consistent with your projections, and don't project Thompkins to be better than all but 5-8 NFL WRs in a couple of key stats, your "floor" projections could be off by a great deal. Assuming only 112 targets, and a more realistic catch rate of 58%, along with a more realistic YPR of 12.0 would lead to:

65 catches, 780 yards. Even if you give him the 6 TDs that you did, that's closer to a WR 4 than a WR 2.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

We all know the deal about the change of NE WR/TEs this season. Let's try to clarify what would be Thompkins' floor/ceiling , assuming he is the every game starter.

Assuming Brady attempts 550-585 passes.

Noise aside, let's duplicate the Z targets from last season (130) and give them to Thompkins. I am ignoring Branch's 29 targets, they'd have torches and pitchforks if we give them to Thompkins.

A decent, but not outrageous catch ratio is 62%, giving him 80 receptions.

Lloyd avg 12.3 per last season, let's round it to 13 for the sake of this and go from there. 1040 yards (984 yards using 12.3 per).

TDs are random, picking a medium 6 TDs (not getting into slicing up Woodhead, Hernandez, etc. scoring plays).

It's never as simple and swapping out what was for what will be, but 80/1000/6 (to me) seems like a sweet spot and can be an attainable number.

Ceiling is bumping his avg to 14 and reception to 85 (around 1200) and TD to 9.

Somewhere between this (+1PPR 200 point season) and the current FBG projection is a big gap.

COME AT ME BRO!

OKAY, BRO!

Let's start with your assumptions.

1) you are projecting Brady for 550-585 passes, when he threw 638 last year, yet you arbitrarily give him the "Z" receivers targets from last year. Nevermind that the percentage of the "Z" receivers targets could be closer to 112 targets than 130 (using your 550-585 pass attempts projection)

2) There were only 5 WRs last year who received the number of targets you are projecting for Thompkins (130) with the catch rate you're predicting (62%).

3) There were only 8 NFL WRs who recorded the number of catches (80) that you are projecting, to go along with the YPR that you projected (13.0).

4) Thompkins appears to be more of the underneath/intermediate type WR, based on reports, and his performance in pre-season. His YPR in preseason is 10.9, not 13.0.

**BTW, if you are "rounding" Lloyd's 12.3 YPR from last year, it would become 12.0, not 13.0**

So, if you are logical and consistent with your projections, and don't project Thompkins to be better than all but 5-8 NFL WRs in a couple of key stats, your "floor" projections could be off by a great deal. Assuming only 112 targets, and a more realistic catch rate of 58%, along with a more realistic YPR of 12.0 would lead to:

65 catches, 780 yards. Even if you give him the 6 TDs that you did, that's closer to a WR 4 than a WR 2.

2012 catch rate:

Calvin 60

A Johnson 69

D Thomas 67

Decker 69

L Moore 64

Colston 64

Bryant 67

Crabtree 67

M Floyd 67

R White 64

R Cobb 77

62% is more than fair.

Took Brady's attempt from current FBG numbers, Brady had 637 attempts last season, so smush them together, div by 2 and it's 600. Fair? Yep.

12 YPC is 960 yds, same ballpark as 14 YPC is 1120, still falling in the same tier.

 

[LittlePhatty]

65 catches, 780 yards. Even if you give him the 6 TDs that you did, that's closer to a WR 4 than a WR 2.

I'll take it, as long as half of that production comes in weeks 14, 15 and 16.

 

[rickyg]

I can't wait for the season to start so that we can all stop prognosticating as if we really know something and we can actually SEE his usage and production first hand. No one really knows whether or not thompkins is a preseason wonder or a stud for years to come yet. We can only guess...My guess is stud for years to come, but only the season will determine that. Can we fast forward to week 1??