Keeper Thoughts? (1 Viewer)

[solorca]

This is my first year playing in a keeper league, so I am looking for some thoughts on how you guys determine who to keep when the time comes to make your choices. In my specific league, we are only allowed to keep players for one season, at the value they were drafted the previous year. I have what I think is an obvious choice in Lesean McCoy as a first rounder, but I also have Marshawn Lynch (8th) and Demarco Murray (17th) as potential value picks, along with some WR choices (Harvin as a 7th, Roddy as a 2nd, Colston as a 5th).

I am not asking for thoughts on my team as I have plenty of time to make a decision before next season, and variables are sure to change. I'm simply looking for thoughts about what the "experts" of the Shark Pool think is the best option.

Do you keep the stud who will likely be a top 3 pick as a first rounder, or do you keep the late round picks who will probably end up being drafted as second or third rounders in most drafts.

 

[RUSF18]

In a league where you have multiple keepers like this, I think the best bet is to use one top pick, one mid round pick, and one late pick. What you outlined is simple and perfect...you would keep McCoy, Lynch, and Murray, be done with RB, and use rounds 2-7 to load up the rest of your roster. You also want to keep in mind that if you're coming out with great RB value late (using your 17th round Murray example), maybe it isn't worth using a 5th round keeper on a WR2. Grab a better receiver early on and use your saved 5th rounder at another position of need.

The lesson of course is not to get too hung up on value. Sure it's great to keep a likely 3rd rounder at the expense of a 10th rounder, but if that guy ends up performing as a 6th rounder, are you happy? You have to remember that many players in those 2nd-4th rounds are being drafted that high based on potential. A good exercise is probably to go look at this season's ADP list and see how you would feel about if you got similar levels of performance out of those draft ranges.

 

[RavenLunatic]

At this point of the season I love this type of discussion because frankly it is all we have.

I struggle with these decisions myself but love the idea of picking one of each level value.

I plan to follow it myself using my first on Brady, a 4th on Welker and a 6th on Fred Jackson. At least that is my thinking today!

It also depends on if you have positional limits. Be careful not to handcuff yourself if you can only have 4 or 5 runningbacks because you may be forced to pass up a good option in the draft.

WRs also tend to be easily replaceable and I tend to always have great ones on the bench. Top ones are always available to redraft. Plus they are usually easiest for preemptive pickups during the season.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I opt for value. Usually keeping guys at late as possible. Keeping a stud at the expense of a 1-3 round draft pick is not always worth it, as you have to count the value of the draft pick in your head too. And don't get too hung up on positions. Last year in one league I kept two TE's for the first time in the history of our league and was laughed at. J graham and Hernandez both at 16/17 round value. Freed me up to ignore TE and know I was not losing ground (and ended up with 2 top 5 te's too)

 

[solorca]

In a league where you have multiple keepers like this, I think the best bet is to use one top pick, one mid round pick, and one late pick. What you outlined is simple and perfect...you would keep McCoy, Lynch, and Murray, be done with RB, and use rounds 2-7 to load up the rest of your roster. You also want to keep in mind that if you're coming out with great RB value late (using your 17th round Murray example), maybe it isn't worth using a 5th round keeper on a WR2. Grab a better receiver early on and use your saved 5th rounder at another position of need. The lesson of course is not to get too hung up on value. Sure it's great to keep a likely 3rd rounder at the expense of a 10th rounder, but if that guy ends up performing as a 6th rounder, are you happy? You have to remember that many players in those 2nd-4th rounds are being drafted that high based on potential. A good exercise is probably to go look at this season's ADP list and see how you would feel about if you got similar levels of performance out of those draft ranges.

I should have clarified, but I am only allowed two keepers in my league...so I'm probably looking at McCoy and one of the other two. Regardless though, and since this isn't really about my team, I like your thinking.

 

[RUSF18]

Don't forget to also take into account which players your leaguemates will likely be keeping, and relate that to where you will be drafting. If designating them is just posting on your message board before the deadline, obviously wait as long as possible and take those picks into account. If it's blind, forecast it out. If you are deciding whether to keep the guy you have as RB9 or WR9, but RB1-7 are all being kept, while only WR 1-5 being kept, better to keep the RB than hope someone of similar value makes it it back to you.

 

[RavenLunatic]

Don't forget to also take into account which players your leaguemates will likely be keeping, and relate that to where you will be drafting. If designating them is just posting on your message board before the deadline, obviously wait as long as possible and take those picks into account. If it's blind, forecast it out. If you are deciding whether to keep the guy you have as RB9 or WR9, but RB1-7 are all being kept, while only WR 1-5 being kept, better to keep the RB than hope someone of similar value makes it it back to you.

Great exercise! More often than not the best RBs available will be the rookies, RB's 12+ and those former RB1/2's coming off injuries, while last season's WR's 5-10 and QB's 5-10 tend to fall back into the draft.