Keeper question (1 Viewer)

[fightingillini]

I am in an auction keeper league where you can keep 4-8 players at a keeper salary, which increases 10% a year.   $200 cap, 2

You can start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, K, D and 2 superflexes (yes you can start 3 QBs).  PPR with QBs getting 1pt/25yds passing and 4 pts per TD pass.

Usually 70 players are kept, about 19 QBs 18 RBs, 29 WRs, and about 3TEs.  Some stud QBs will be up for bid, and Rodgers will go for about 50.  In fact, any decent player up for bid will go for much more than "typical value", since we're trying to keep value players.

I won the league last year and I have a lot of difficult decisions to make.  Here are my keeper options with their keeper salaries

QB (QB prices are insane in this league)......Ben ($28), Prescott ($14), Taylor ($10), McCown ($3)

RB - Fournette ($22), Henry ($10), Collins ($16), Lewis ($3)

WR - Julio ($25), D Thomas ($25), Crowder ($9)

TE - Gronkowski ($15)

D - Jacksonville ($3)

Fournette, Julio, and Gronk are no brainers.  I have to keep one QB, probably should keep 2.  This league has pretty high D scoring.  Jax scored about 65 points higher than the 5th or 6th best defense, so keeping JAX defense is very tempting.

With Julio and Gronk, my team is older and I am looking to win now.

Which 8 do you keep and why?

Thanks.

 

[Gally]

Don't keep a defense.  Too much variance year to year.  Not worth the spot.

So you need to drop 4 more to get to your 8 keepers.  I would not keep:

• Ben - Too expensive compared to Taylor and Dak and I am not sure how much better overall he will be.  I think he misses games as well
  
• D Thomas - I think you probably get him cheaper because he isn't flashy and it frees up some cap to go elsewhere if need be.
  
• McCown - just because I am not sold he starts this year.  It wouldn't surprise me if he loses the job.
  
• Henry - It's kind of a toss up for me between Crowder and Henry.  I know that seems odd but I would rather have Lewis at $3 in a PPR than Henry and you probably don't want to keep both. 
  

That gives you a cap hit of $114 so you have $76 to spend in the auction. I am not sure if that is a lot of cap space or not without knowing how your league mates spend.  Seems like it would be a lot without knowing anything else about your league.

 

[jwsbowler]

I would keep:

Jones, Fournette, Gronkowski, Prescott... then I would consider Henry, Lewis, Collins... Yes, Henry and Lewis play for the same team, Lewis value is solid and I would prefer Henry over Collins as I think they will project similar numbers, thus making Henry a better value.  My 8th.. Jacksonville over Taylor.  In a 4 TD, 1 point per 25, I have Taylor ranked in the 28 - 30 area projections wise.  I do agree that keeping a defense does not make sense, but for the price, and the way they are young and hungry, I think they are better value than Taylor.  Call me crazy, but...

 

[beerbuff]

I would keep Jones, Gronk, Fournette, Dak, McCown (too cheap not to keep), Lewis and Henry. 

 

[ZWK]

Definitely keep: Gronk, Prescott, Julio, Fournette

Probably keep: Roethlisberger, Taylor, Henry, Lewis

Probably don't keep: McCown, Collins, D Thomas

Definitely don't keep: Crowder, Jacksonville

For the non-QBs, you can figure most of this out just by looking at ADP. You generally don't want to pay more to keep a guy who's being drafted later.

Starting up to 3 QBs massively inflates QB value, so it makes sense to keep 3 of them. Probably worth trying to draft a 4th QB - Mayfield would lock up QB Browns and could give you a nice keeper for next year.

 

[fightingillini]

Thanks for the replies!

I know I will keep Julio, Fournette, Gronk, Dak, and Henry.  Everything else is up in air and I can go in many directions.  I think I have to keep one more QB (maybe two), I should keep one more RB.  I would like to keep Collins, but it's going to be hard to pass on Lewis for $3.  My sense is that I can keep Lewis for $3 and just bid on Collins.....that would be cheaper than keeping Collins and bidding on Lewis.  JAX D is tempting, but I know that Ds change massively year to year.  They probably will go for $7-8 in the auction.

I like ZWK's suggestion of keeping Taylor and drafting Mayfield.  Since Mayfield likely won't be starting this year, I can get him for dirt cheap (probably less than $5), which would be an insane keeper value in a league where you can start 3 QBs.