Just a question on something I believe to be a rare occurrence. (1 Viewer)

[MrSoup]

This year in my main league, I finished in 5th place with a 6-6-1 record.

The kicker is that I led my league in overall points with 1,963 scored, but had 1,970 points scored against.

How often does the points leader have more points against than points scored?

Has anybody else ever had this happen to them or occur in their league?

This isn't a whining or bragging thread by any means. But I assume this can't happen very often.

Regardless, HERE COME THE PLAYOFFS.

 

[MikeDoherty]

This year in my main league, I finished in 5th place with a 6-6-1 record.The kicker is that I led my league in overall points with 1,963 scored, but had 1,970 points scored against.How often does the points leader have more points against than points scored?Has anybody else ever had this happen to them or occur in their league?This isn't a whining or bragging thread by any means. But I assume this can't happen very often. Regardless, HERE COME THE PLAYOFFS.

We had this happen for the first time in our league this year. The kicker, the team went 6-7 and barely made the playoffs.

 

[Boomer1]

Our 2nd highest in point had the most points against, finished 6-7 and did not make the playoffs. He's not happy.

 

[fsufan]

H2H leagues are about Ws and Ls

 

[Marvelous]

It happened to me this year. The leader in points scored and points scored against. Finshed 5-7 and missed the playoffs.

And I whined about it in another thread. This team is so loaded with players, I was amazed it ever lost a game.

 

[sartre]

Depends on how you define rare. If you are in a 12-team league, the odds that the points leader and points-against leader would be the same team are 1 in 12. I wouldn't call that rare.

ETA: also, what are the odds that the points-against would exceed the points-for of the respective category leaders? I'm not certain, but I doubt it is far from 50-50. So what you are talking about probably happens 4 or 5% of the time in any given league year.

 

[SkyRattlers]

I'm the 2nd lowest scoring team in my dynasty league but I ended up as having the 3rd lowest total points against. I'm now 7-6 and headed to the playoffs. Can't say I'm real happy about it either. Maybe lightning will strike and I'll get lucky for the next 3 games and snag a Champtionship, but I doubt it. Realistically this year has only set back the rebuild I've been working on for the last two years. I was really hoping to snag another top RB in next year's draft and then sit back and watch all my talented youth develop.

 

[Choke]

This year is definately different.

Though some wil say it isnt... its not really worth debating.

Suffice it to say that it is definately different for a ton of leagues, just maybe not all of them.

 

[Big Petey]

Depends on how you define rare. If you are in a 12-team league, the odds that the points leader and points-against leader would be the same team are 1 in 12. I wouldn't call that rare.ETA: also, what are the odds that the points-against would exceed the points-for of the respective category leaders? I'm not certain, but I doubt it is far from 50-50. So what you are talking about probably happens 4 or 5% of the time in any given league year.

Um, no.The chance of being the points leader is 1 in 12. The chance of being the points-against leader is 1 in 12. The chance of BOTH to the same owner is not 1 in 12.

 

[ponchsox]

I'm #3 in points scored in a 14 team H2H league and #1 in points against. My record is 7-6. The good thing is we play a 14 game regular season so based on tiebreakers, If I win next week I'm in.

 

[Air Coryell]

This year is definately different.Though some wil say it isnt... its not really worth debating. Suffice it to say that it is definately different for a ton of leagues, just maybe not all of them.

Currently 8 of the the 10 teams in my league have higher PA than PS. Of the two teams that have the higher PS than PA one will, and one will not make the playoffs. Both of those teams are first and second in total points scored.

 

[Tchula]

Depends on how you define rare. If you are in a 12-team league, the odds that the points leader and points-against leader would be the same team are 1 in 12. I wouldn't call that rare.ETA: also, what are the odds that the points-against would exceed the points-for of the respective category leaders? I'm not certain, but I doubt it is far from 50-50. So what you are talking about probably happens 4 or 5% of the time in any given league year.

Um, no.The chance of being the points leader is 1 in 12. The chance of being the points-against leader is 1 in 12. The chance of BOTH to the same owner is not 1 in 12.

What he is saying is there's a 1 in 12 chance the points leader has the most points scored against him.

 

[sartre]

Depends on how you define rare. If you are in a 12-team league, the odds that the points leader and points-against leader would be the same team are 1 in 12. I wouldn't call that rare.ETA: also, what are the odds that the points-against would exceed the points-for of the respective category leaders? I'm not certain, but I doubt it is far from 50-50. So what you are talking about probably happens 4 or 5% of the time in any given league year.

Um, no.The chance of being the points leader is 1 in 12. The chance of being the points-against leader is 1 in 12. The chance of BOTH to the same owner is not 1 in 12.

Um, yes, it is correct.If you asked before the first game "what are the chances that this one specific team will have the most for, and most against" then it would be around one in 144.The question is, how rare is it that ANY team will meet both criteria in a given league year. That would be 1 in 12, in a 12 team league. About half of those times, the "points against" will exceed the "points for".

 

[Chimp Magnet]

This year in my main league, I finished in 5th place with a 6-6-1 record.The kicker is that I led my league in overall points with 1,963 scored, but had 1,970 points scored against.How often does the points leader have more points against than points scored?Has anybody else ever had this happen to them or occur in their league?This isn't a whining or bragging thread by any means. But I assume this can't happen very often. Regardless, HERE COME THE PLAYOFFS.

Happened to me this year. 5-8. Missed the playoffs. 2nd year in a row I faced toughest schedule. Wasn't top scorer last year though.

 

[Instinctive]

Depends on how you define rare. If you are in a 12-team league, the odds that the points leader and points-against leader would be the same team are 1 in 12. I wouldn't call that rare.ETA: also, what are the odds that the points-against would exceed the points-for of the respective category leaders? I'm not certain, but I doubt it is far from 50-50. So what you are talking about probably happens 4 or 5% of the time in any given league year.

Um, no.The chance of being the points leader is 1 in 12. The chance of being the points-against leader is 1 in 12. The chance of BOTH to the same owner is not 1 in 12.

Um, yes, it is correct.If you asked before the first game "what are the chances that this one specific team will have the most for, and most against" then it would be around one in 144.The question is, how rare is it that ANY team will meet both criteria in a given league year. That would be 1 in 12, in a 12 team league. About half of those times, the "points against" will exceed the "points for".

No, it's definitely 1 in 144, not one in 12.You have a 1 in 12 of each event happening, and they are independent of each other. That's the kicker. The chance of it happening to one team is not 1 in 12, because it isn't guaranteed to happen to any team. A 1 in 12 chance would mean that it is GOING to happen to somebody. It is 100% not guaranteed that somebody is going to meet both criteria. In fact, it is actually possible that every single team has more points against than for, and vice-versa. Incredibly unlikely, and practically impossible but, like a perfect March Madness bracket, technically possible.1. Any given team is points leader ----- 1 in 122. Any given team is points against leader ---- 1 in 123. Same team? Multiply them. ----- 1 in 144ETA: If you are assuming that the team is already the points leader, and there's a 100% guarantee that said team already meets one criteria, then the chance becomes 1 in 12. That could be what you are trying to say, but if so, it is articulated quite poorly.

 

[Koya]

One year I had highest points scored. And did NOT make the playoffs.

 

[Marvelous]

Depends on how you define rare. If you are in a 12-team league, the odds that the points leader and points-against leader would be the same team are 1 in 12. I wouldn't call that rare.ETA: also, what are the odds that the points-against would exceed the points-for of the respective category leaders? I'm not certain, but I doubt it is far from 50-50. So what you are talking about probably happens 4 or 5% of the time in any given league year.

Um, no.The chance of being the points leader is 1 in 12. The chance of being the points-against leader is 1 in 12. The chance of BOTH to the same owner is not 1 in 12.

What he is saying is there's a 1 in 12 chance the points leader has the most points scored against him.

It is actaully less. The points leader never has to play against himself, so that is one good, high scoring team he does not face.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Depends on how you define rare. If you are in a 12-team league, the odds that the points leader and points-against leader would be the same team are 1 in 12. I wouldn't call that rare.ETA: also, what are the odds that the points-against would exceed the points-for of the respective category leaders? I'm not certain, but I doubt it is far from 50-50. So what you are talking about probably happens 4 or 5% of the time in any given league year.

Um, no.The chance of being the points leader is 1 in 12. The chance of being the points-against leader is 1 in 12. The chance of BOTH to the same owner is not 1 in 12.

Um, yes, it is correct.If you asked before the first game "what are the chances that this one specific team will have the most for, and most against" then it would be around one in 144.The question is, how rare is it that ANY team will meet both criteria in a given league year. That would be 1 in 12, in a 12 team league. About half of those times, the "points against" will exceed the "points for".

No, it's definitely 1 in 144, not one in 12.You have a 1 in 12 of each event happening, and they are independent of each other. That's the kicker. The chance of it happening to one team is not 1 in 12, because it isn't guaranteed to happen to any team. A 1 in 12 chance would mean that it is GOING to happen to somebody. It is 100% not guaranteed that somebody is going to meet both criteria. In fact, it is actually possible that every single team has more points against than for, and vice-versa. Incredibly unlikely, and practically impossible but, like a perfect March Madness bracket, technically possible.1. Any given team is points leader ----- 1 in 122. Any given team is points against leader ---- 1 in 123. Same team? Multiply them. ----- 1 in 144ETA: If you are assuming that the team is already the points leader, and there's a 100% guarantee that said team already meets one criteria, then the chance becomes 1 in 12. That could be what you are trying to say, but if so, it is articulated quite poorly.

Oof.

 

[gandalas]

In my main league (in my sig), I finished #3 in total points, #1 in points against, and finished 7-7 and missed the playoffs.

Seems to be happening a lot this year.

 

[bulger2holt]

Depends on how you define rare. If you are in a 12-team league, the odds that the points leader and points-against leader would be the same team are 1 in 12. I wouldn't call that rare.ETA: also, what are the odds that the points-against would exceed the points-for of the respective category leaders? I'm not certain, but I doubt it is far from 50-50. So what you are talking about probably happens 4 or 5% of the time in any given league year.

Um, no.The chance of being the points leader is 1 in 12. The chance of being the points-against leader is 1 in 12. The chance of BOTH to the same owner is not 1 in 12.

Um, yes, it is correct.If you asked before the first game "what are the chances that this one specific team will have the most for, and most against" then it would be around one in 144.The question is, how rare is it that ANY team will meet both criteria in a given league year. That would be 1 in 12, in a 12 team league. About half of those times, the "points against" will exceed the "points for".

No, it's definitely 1 in 144, not one in 12.You have a 1 in 12 of each event happening, and they are independent of each other. That's the kicker. The chance of it happening to one team is not 1 in 12, because it isn't guaranteed to happen to any team. A 1 in 12 chance would mean that it is GOING to happen to somebody. It is 100% not guaranteed that somebody is going to meet both criteria. In fact, it is actually possible that every single team has more points against than for, and vice-versa. Incredibly unlikely, and practically impossible but, like a perfect March Madness bracket, technically possible.1. Any given team is points leader ----- 1 in 122. Any given team is points against leader ---- 1 in 123. Same team? Multiply them. ----- 1 in 144ETA: If you are assuming that the team is already the points leader, and there's a 100% guarantee that said team already meets one criteria, then the chance becomes 1 in 12. That could be what you are trying to say, but if so, it is articulated quite poorly.

I suport this

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Depends on how you define rare. If you are in a 12-team league, the odds that the points leader and points-against leader would be the same team are 1 in 12. I wouldn't call that rare.ETA: also, what are the odds that the points-against would exceed the points-for of the respective category leaders? I'm not certain, but I doubt it is far from 50-50. So what you are talking about probably happens 4 or 5% of the time in any given league year.

Um, no.The chance of being the points leader is 1 in 12. The chance of being the points-against leader is 1 in 12. The chance of BOTH to the same owner is not 1 in 12.

Um, yes, it is correct.If you asked before the first game "what are the chances that this one specific team will have the most for, and most against" then it would be around one in 144.The question is, how rare is it that ANY team will meet both criteria in a given league year. That would be 1 in 12, in a 12 team league. About half of those times, the "points against" will exceed the "points for".

No, it's definitely 1 in 144, not one in 12.You have a 1 in 12 of each event happening, and they are independent of each other. That's the kicker. The chance of it happening to one team is not 1 in 12, because it isn't guaranteed to happen to any team. A 1 in 12 chance would mean that it is GOING to happen to somebody. It is 100% not guaranteed that somebody is going to meet both criteria. In fact, it is actually possible that every single team has more points against than for, and vice-versa. Incredibly unlikely, and practically impossible but, like a perfect March Madness bracket, technically possible.1. Any given team is points leader ----- 1 in 122. Any given team is points against leader ---- 1 in 123. Same team? Multiply them. ----- 1 in 144ETA: If you are assuming that the team is already the points leader, and there's a 100% guarantee that said team already meets one criteria, then the chance becomes 1 in 12. That could be what you are trying to say, but if so, it is articulated quite poorly.

I suport this

You shouldn't, it's wrong.

 

[sjacksonfan]

What are the odds in a H2H, 10 team league that the single team with the best record would be 7-5-1? Gotta be almost impossible.

 

[Instinctive]

You shouldn't, it's wrong.

Enlighten us, o great internet pundit.We're assuming all teams are relatively equal in power as well. It also really depends on which of the other teams a team plays any given week as well as the matchups of the players on those opposing teams and if they score in a way that deviates from the mean in an immense way or not.For instance, a team that scores somewhere between 2nd and 4th highest every single week has a much lower chance of losing those games to the #1 scoring team every single week and missing the playoffs than another team - after all, if you are the #1 scoring team every single week, but also play the #2 scoring team every week, you'll have the most points against. Every other team only plays you once, and they never get to play the #2 scoring team because it changes to whoever is against you each week. In that case, you would have the most PA, but not lose.If we're assuming all teams to be of equal strength and some random luck, then you have a 1 in 12 shot at scoring leader, and a 1 in 12 shot at points against leader. Now, those change slightly because if you are the scoring leader and you never play yourself, your chances of also being PA leader are slightly lower (after all, you don't have to play against your own juggernaut of a team...)So while it isn't exactly 1 in 144, it's definitely the ballpark, which is all we're really looking for here.

 

[BINGBING]

What are the odds of every team going 0-0-13??? I mean it is possible.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

You shouldn't, it's wrong.

Enlighten us, o great internet pundit.

The probability that you (pretend you're one of the owners in the league) will be the points scored leader, and the points against leader, is ~1/144.The probability that someone will be the points scored leader and the points against leader is ~1/12, which is all we're really looking for here.

 

[LC512]

I missed the playoffs as the top scorer with LT in his touchdown record year, and Colston playing TE.

The next year I won the league as like the 7th highest scorer.

It happens. You'll live.

 

[pantagrapher]

What makes it odd to me is that the top scoring team obviously never has to play against the top scoring team while most other teams do, some of them twice.

 

[CalBear]

Depends on how you define rare. If you are in a 12-team league, the odds that the points leader and points-against leader would be the same team are 1 in 12. I wouldn't call that rare.

ETA: also, what are the odds that the points-against would exceed the points-for of the respective category leaders? I'm not certain, but I doubt it is far from 50-50. So what you are talking about probably happens 4 or 5% of the time in any given league year.

Um, no.The chance of being the points leader is 1 in 12. The chance of being the points-against leader is 1 in 12. The chance of BOTH to the same owner is not 1 in 12.

Um, yes, it is correct.If you asked before the first game "what are the chances that this one specific team will have the most for, and most against" then it would be around one in 144.

The question is, how rare is it that ANY team will meet both criteria in a given league year. That would be 1 in 12, in a 12 team league. About half of those times, the "points against" will exceed the "points for".

No, it's definitely 1 in 144, not one in 12.You have a 1 in 12 of each event happening, and they are independent of each other. That's the kicker. The chance of it happening to one team is not 1 in 12, because it isn't guaranteed to happen to any team. A 1 in 12 chance would mean that it is GOING to happen to somebody. It is 100% not guaranteed that somebody is going to meet both criteria. In fact, it is actually possible that every single team has more points against than for, and vice-versa. Incredibly unlikely, and practically impossible but, like a perfect March Madness bracket, technically possible.

1. Any given team is points leader ----- 1 in 12

2. Any given team is points against leader ---- 1 in 12

3. Same team? Multiply them. ----- 1 in 144

ETA: If you are assuming that the team is already the points leader, and there's a 100% guarantee that said team already meets one criteria, then the chance becomes 1 in 12. That could be what you are trying to say, but if so, it is articulated quite poorly.

You're correct if you're analyzing whether one specific team will be both the points leader and points against leader. But you're incorrect if you're analyzing it for the league as a whole. Every team has about(*) a 1 in 12 chance of being the points against leader, so the team that winds up being the points leader has a 1 in 12 chance of being the points against leader as well. The events aren't really independent when you're looking at the league as a whole.It is similar to the birthday paradox; the odds that a randomly chosen person shares your birthday is about 365 to 1, but the odds that any two people in a group share a birthday is surprisingly high; if there are 23 people in the group, the probability is 50%, and if there are 57 it's 99%.

(*) The points leader doesn't have to play against the points leader, so it is slightly less likely that he'll be the points against leader, the probability varying based on how many points he scored above the mean.

 

[Instinctive]

ETA: If you are assuming that the team is already the points leader, and there's a 100% guarantee that said team already meets one criteria, then the chance becomes 1 in 12. That could be what you are trying to say, but if so, it is articulated quite poorly.

Oof.

You shouldn't, it's wrong.

Enlighten us, o great internet pundit.

The probability that you (pretend you're one of the owners in the league) will be the points scored leader, and the points against leader, is ~1/144.The probability that someone will be the points scored leader and the points against leader is ~1/12, which is all we're really looking for here.

No, that probability occurs to any team in the league. The point you are trying to make is one I edited in just after posting, as evidenced by the fact that it got quoted in your own post.The probability than anyone, including yourself, is the leader in both categories is 1 in 144.

It becomes 1 in 12 if we assume that one team IS the points leader already. The chance that a team which is already determined to be the points scored leader also leads in PA is 1 in 12. But if you are picking any team, then they have a 1 in 12 shot at each, making the shot at both 1 in 144.

Yes, if you assume that the points leader is the team we are talking about, there is a 1 in 12 shot that they have the most PA. the poster I quoted did NOT specify that one team was already leader in scoring.

 

[Black]

Our points leader had the highest points against, finished 7-6, and was nearly bumped from the playoffs (10 team league, 6 move on to playoffs). He had massive weeks, but happened to play vs. the high scoring team 3 times in those weeks. Very bizarre.

 

[CalBear]

No, that probability occurs to any team in the league. The point you are trying to make is one I edited in just after posting, as evidenced by the fact that it got quoted in your own post.The probability than anyone, including yourself, is the leader in both categories is 1 in 144.It becomes 1 in 12 if we assume that one team IS the points leader already. The chance that a team which is already determined to be the points scored leader also leads in PA is 1 in 12. But if you are picking any team, then they have a 1 in 12 shot at each, making the shot at both 1 in 144.Yes, if you assume that the points leader is the team we are talking about, there is a 1 in 12 shot that they have the most PA. the poster I quoted did NOT specify that one team was already leader in scoring.

Does your league not have a point leader?

 

[pantagrapher]

It becomes 1 in 12 if we assume that one team IS the points leader already. The chance that a team which is already determined to be the points scored leader also leads in PA is 1 in 12. But if you are picking any team, then they have a 1 in 12 shot at each, making the shot at both 1 in 144.Yes, if you assume that the points leader is the team we are talking about, there is a 1 in 12 shot that they have the most PA. the poster I quoted did NOT specify that one team was already leader in scoring.

I am not a statistician, so maybe you can help me with this: doesn't the probability that the top scoring team will have the most points against decrease relative to other teams by virtue of the fact that he never plays the top scoring team?

 

[Instinctive]

Um, no.

The chance of being the points leader is 1 in 12. The chance of being the points-against leader is 1 in 12. The chance of BOTH to the same owner is not 1 in 12.

Um, yes, it is correct.If you asked before the first game \"what are the chances that this one specific team will have the most for, and most against\" then it would be around one in 144.

The question is, how rare is it that ANY team will meet both criteria in a given league year. That would be 1 in 12, in a 12 team league. About half of those times, the \"points against\" will exceed the \"points for\".

No, it\'s definitely 1 in 144, not one in 12.You have a 1 in 12 of each event happening, and they are independent of each other. That\'s the kicker. The chance of it happening to one team is not 1 in 12, because it isn\'t guaranteed to happen to any team. A 1 in 12 chance would mean that it is GOING to happen to somebody. It is 100% not guaranteed that somebody is going to meet both criteria. In fact, it is actually possible that every single team has more points against than for, and vice-versa. Incredibly unlikely, and practically impossible but, like a perfect March Madness bracket, technically possible.

1. Any given team is points leader ----- 1 in 12

2. Any given team is points against leader ---- 1 in 12

3. Same team? Multiply them. ----- 1 in 144

ETA: If you are assuming that the team is already the points leader, and there\'s a 100% guarantee that said team already meets one criteria, then the chance becomes 1 in 12. That could be what you are trying to say, but if so, it is articulated quite poorly.

You\'re correct if you\'re analyzing whether one specific team will be both the points leader and points against leader. But you\'re incorrect if you\'re analyzing it for the league as a whole. Every team has about(*) a 1 in 12 chance of being the points against leader, so the team that winds up being the points leader has a 1 in 12 chance of being the points against leader as well. The events aren\'t really independent when you\'re looking at the league as a whole.It is similar to the birthday paradox; the odds that a randomly chosen person shares your birthday is about 365 to 1, but the odds that any two people in a group share a birthday is surprisingly high; if there are 23 people in the group, the probability is 50%, and if there are 57 it\'s 99%.

(*) The points leader doesn\'t have to play against the points leader, so it is slightly less likely that he\'ll be the points against leader, the probability varying based on how many points he scored above the mean.

I think I bring up both of your points in my analysis, although the (*) is brought up in a different response.ETA: I found the quote

Now, those change slightly because if you are the scoring leader and you never play yourself, your chances of also being PA leader are slightly lower (after all, you don\'t have to play against your own juggernaut of a team...)

 

[Doug B]

Not sure what to say about it. In two of my three money leagues, I am 1st and 2nd in points scored. Yet the two teams are 7-6 and 6-6-1, and both out of the playoffs. It happens. Not thrilled about it, but my teams pretty much did what I set out to have them do. Really, just a handful of line-up decisions over the course of the season made the difference

Maybe next year, I'll have 10-3 squads with middle-of-the-pack scoring, but with cake schedules

EDIT: Never mind -- the 7-6 squad mentioned above IS in the playoffs (barely). I know everone cares

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Oof again. I'm sorry, but you're wrong.Pretend for a moment that instead of 12 teams in the league, there are only 3 teams (A, B, and C). What would be the probability that someone in that league would be the points scored leader and the points against leader? By your logic, you'd say it's 1/9. But that's wrong, it's actually 1/3.

Because there are only three teams, we can look at every single possibility, since the math part seems to be giving you some trouble. This is every possible combination of points scored leader - points against leader:

A - A

A - B

A - C

B - A

B - B

B - C

C - A

C - B

C - C

Nine total possibilities. Three times the points scored leader is the same as the points against leader. 3/9 = 1/3.

 

[boubucarow]

Sorry but you are all wrong. The chances of the leading scorer to also be the leader in points against is less than the chances for any of the other teams simply because the leading scorer doesn't ever face the leading scorer.

 

[CalBear]

I think I bring up both of your points in my analysis, although the (*) is brought up in a different response.

You bring up the point, but you come to the wrong conclusion.Someone in the league will be the points leader; that's a 100% probability. The probability that that team will also be the points against leader is slightly higher than 12 to 1. So the probability that one team in the league will lead both categories is slightly higher than 12 to 1.

 

[Instinctive]

No, that probability occurs to any team in the league. The point you are trying to make is one I edited in just after posting, as evidenced by the fact that it got quoted in your own post.The probability than anyone, including yourself, is the leader in both categories is 1 in 144.It becomes 1 in 12 if we assume that one team IS the points leader already. The chance that a team which is already determined to be the points scored leader also leads in PA is 1 in 12. But if you are picking any team, then they have a 1 in 12 shot at each, making the shot at both 1 in 144.Yes, if you assume that the points leader is the team we are talking about, there is a 1 in 12 shot that they have the most PA. the poster I quoted did NOT specify that one team was already leader in scoring.

Does your league not have a point leader?

It becomes 1 in 12 if we assume that one team IS the points leader already. The chance that a team which is already determined to be the points scored leader also leads in PA is 1 in 12. But if you are picking any team, then they have a 1 in 12 shot at each, making the shot at both 1 in 144.Yes, if you assume that the points leader is the team we are talking about, there is a 1 in 12 shot that they have the most PA. the poster I quoted did NOT specify that one team was already leader in scoring.

I am not a statistician, so maybe you can help me with this: doesn't the probability that the top scoring team will have the most points against decrease relative to other teams by virtue of the fact that he never plays the top scoring team?

To both of these posts, yes. Here is the relevant point mentioned in one of my earlier posts:

Now, those change slightly because if you are the scoring leader and you never play yourself, your chances of also being PA leader are slightly lower (after all, you don't have to play against your own juggernaut of a team...)

 

[CalBear]

Sorry but you are all wrong. The chances of the leading scorer to also be the leader in points against is less than the chances for any of the other teams simply because the leading scorer doesn't ever face the leading scorer.

Sorry but several people have made that point already.

 

[Doug B]

I'm the 2nd lowest scoring team in my dynasty league but I ended up as having the 3rd lowest total points against. I'm now 7-6 and headed to the playoffs. Can't say I'm real happy about it either. Maybe lightning will strike and I'll get lucky for the next 3 games and snag a Champtionship, but I doubt it.

I don't know why this is, but in our leagues, middle-of-the-pack teams have typically been King Kong at playoff time. 7-6 teams seem to win a ton of titles.

 

[Instinctive]

Oof again. I'm sorry, but you're wrong.Pretend for a moment that instead of 12 teams in the league, there are only 3 teams (A, B, and C). What would be the probability that someone in that league would be the points scored leader and the points against leader? By your logic, you'd say it's 1/9. But that's wrong, it's actually 1/3.

Because there are only three teams, we can look at every single possibility, since the math part seems to be giving you some trouble. This is every possible combination of points scored leader - points against leader:

A - A

A - B

A - C

B - A

B - B

B - C

C - A

C - B

C - C

Nine total possibilities. Three times the points scored leader is the same as the points against leader. 3/9 = 1/3.

Once again, the point you bring up is one we have already reached agreement on. When we assume that the team is the total points leader, you're absolutely right. My analysis was originally for the chance that a single team out of the league fit both categories We have since moved on.

 

[CalBear]

Not sure what to say about it. In two of my three money leagues, I am 1st and 2nd in points scored. Yet the two teams are 7-6 and 6-6-1, and both out of the playoffs. It happens. Not thrilled about it, but my teams pretty much did what I set out to have them do. Really, just a handful of line-up decisions over the course of the season made the difference

Same situation for me (6-6-1 and out). The tie was particularly painful; it was in week 12, and I was down by just 2 points going into Monday Night, with the Arizona D playing against Troy Smith and the Niners. The overturned fumble call doomed me to a tie.

 

[Instinctive]

I think I bring up both of your points in my analysis, although the (*) is brought up in a different response.

You bring up the point, but you come to the wrong conclusion.Someone in the league will be the points leader; that's a 100% probability. The probability that that team will also be the points against leader is slightly higher than 12 to 1. So the probability that one team in the league will lead both categories is slightly higher than 12 to 1.

I fail to see where we disagree. I must have articulated it poorly, but I thought the original question was for one team. Such For the league, yes, slightly off of 1 in 12 because we are beginning with one team being the scoring leader. although, we have to brign up this point again:

Now, those change slightly because if you are the scoring leader and you never play yourself, your chances of also being PA leader are slightly lower (after all, you don't have to play against your own juggernaut of a team...)

In which case I think we are in agreement. The other people in the thread seem to have missed that we have been discussing two situations. I think we both understand what we're saying at this point.

 

[Instinctive]

I'm the 2nd lowest scoring team in my dynasty league but I ended up as having the 3rd lowest total points against. I'm now 7-6 and headed to the playoffs. Can't say I'm real happy about it either. Maybe lightning will strike and I'll get lucky for the next 3 games and snag a Champtionship, but I doubt it.

I don't know why this is, but in our leagues, middle-of-the-pack teams have typically been King Kong at playoff time. 7-6 teams seem to win a ton of titles.

Those are the teams that get to pick up Jamaal Charles, Nick Goings, Jerome Harrison, etc off of the WW first...because the super crappy teams don't play the wire at playoff time in a redraft.So the top teams miss out on those end of year guys unless they think 2 moves ahead. And those guys are enough to go from middle to top, though not from bottom to top.

 

[leave a whisper]

in one 10 team league league i was #1 in points scored & #7 in points against & had to win last week to make the playoffs (7-6)

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Once again, the point you bring up is one we have already reached agreement on. When we assume that the team is the total points leader, you're absolutely right. My analysis was originally for the chance that a single team out of the league fit both categories We have since moved on.

It's not very clear that you actually understand the point, because you keep disagreeing with posts that are correct:

Um, yes, it is correct.

If you asked before the first game "what are the chances that this one specific team will have the most for, and most against" then it would be around one in 144.

The question is, how rare is it that ANY team will meet both criteria in a given league year. That would be 1 in 12, in a 12 team league. About half of those times, the "points against" will exceed the "points for".

No

The probability that you (pretend you're one of the owners in the league) will be the points scored leader, and the points against leader, is ~1/144.

The probability that someone will be the points scored leader and the points against leader is ~1/12, which is all we're really looking for here.

No

 

[emge]

It happened to me this year. The leader in points scored and points scored against. Finshed 5-7 and missed the playoffs. And I whined about it in another thread. This team is so loaded with players, I was amazed it ever lost a game.

Same thing happened to me in another league. 1406 pts scored, 1410 pts against. I wasn't the #1, but the leader in pts had 1487 got #2 seed with a 9-4 record. I missed the playoffs with 2nd most pts and a 5-8 record. While teams with 1224 and 1266, 1308 all made playoffs with just 1 more win than me. The only other team to have more pts against was the worst team. 2-11 record, 1449 pts scored aginst, but they only scored 1096 pts.My team: Romo/Orton, Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Steve Johnson, Charles, Bradshaw, Moreno, SJackson, Gates, TonyG

 

[phillyphan07]

Actually you're pretty much ALL wrong because you're using statistic that describe random events (like coin flips) to describe non-random events (like football stats production and/or H2H matchups).

For example, you could have an unbalanced schedule where the pts leader plays in the same division as 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th total pts.

That said I have no f-ing clue how to look at it.... But I think we can all agree that it happens from time to time and it blows

 

[TommyGilmore]

In our league, the guy who had the most Total Points also had the Least Points Against.

Also, he finished 6-7 and almost missed the playoffs.

 

[Koya]

I just checked - in the league that I won the Points title (and $500 bucks ... woot!) this year, I ALSO had the most points against.

Unfortunately that was the reason I missed getting a bye week, as the owner who beat me in my division had 200 less points scored against him. Thank god my team was really solid or I'd have had a chance to miss the playoffs with an above average team facing that unlucky schedule.