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Is the NFC on a new run of Super Bowls? (1 Viewer)

Sinrman

Footballguy
The NFC has now won 3 out of the last 4 Super Bowls, yet many still believe the AFC is the "stronger conference." The NFC dominated the 90's, but the AFC started to take it back until a few years back.

Is the NFC poised to make another run on Super Bowls like the 90's and prove that the AFC isn't the stronger conference?

 
If it matters to the discussion...I'm an NFC "fan" but my opinion is that the AFC is a stronger conference in terms of the playoff teams. You look at what the Jets had to do...beat Manning, Brady, and Ben all before the SB and I don't see a comparable gauntlet in the NFC. But it doesn't mean that the best team didn't win the SB in this case or that the NFC can't have the run while also being the weaker conference.

And also, if it matters to you, Vegas had the AFC as a 3-point favorite over the NFC heading into the playoffs. Believe it moved to AFC -1 after the Pats lost, and then obviously flipped to GB -2.5 for the big game.

 
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There is a perception that the AFC is better but that's about it. It's pretty close to being even and although the NFC has won several more recently than the AFC, I expect the AFC to make a run soon as well. The NFL is pretty balanced.

 
Partly depends on which conference has more franchise quarterbacks. Brady, Manning, and Roethlisberger all resided in the AFC. This decade, the young franchise QBs appear to be in the NFC with Rodgers, Freeman, Ryan, Bradford, and Stafford all candidates or already there.

 
Further proof that the NFL is more balanced than some would have you believe. Three of the top five draft picks belong to AFC teams and five of the top ten. Doesn't sound like the AFC is that dominant to me.

 
2010 RECORDS

AFC - 130 wins

NFC - 127 wins

2010 YARDS ALLOWED

AFC - 5380.1/game

NFC - 5372.6/game

2010 POINTS ALLOWED

AFC - 354.2/game

NFC - 351.0/game

2010 YARDS GAINED

AFC - 5490.8/game

NFC - 5261.5/game

2010 POINTS SCORED

AFC - 366.3/game

NFC - 338.9/game

Stats from nfl.com. I assume the variance between Offense and Defense is somehow related to ST play, but don't know for sure.

 
When people discuss conference dominance, they usually infer Super Bowl play, not overall head-to-head or draft picks, etc.

 
When people discuss conference dominance, they usually infer Super Bowl play, not overall head-to-head or draft picks, etc.
See post 2. It's a bit of a flawed way to look at things. The NFC won the Super Bowl, but they also took last place. One team does not reflect the entire conference.
 
Partly depends on which conference has more franchise quarterbacks. Brady, Manning, and Roethlisberger all resided in the AFC. This decade, the young franchise QBs appear to be in the NFC with Rodgers, Freeman, Ryan, Bradford, and Stafford all candidates or already there.
This. Add in that the Colts are beginning to look like a team that is past its peak as well. Also some of the very best Steeler players are getting up there in age as well. Here's some of their stars and the age they will be in 2011. So while Big Ben is certainly in his prime, the backbone of that defense is aging.Farrior 36Ward 35A. Smith 35Hampton 34Harrison 33Keisel 33Clark 32Polamalu 30
 
I will say there are about 4-5 teams that truly have a shot to make it to the Superbowl every year in the AFC.

I would be surprised if NE, IND, BLT, NYJ or PIT was NOT in the Superbowl.

In the NFC, I would say it's more wide open.

There are only a handful of team that would surprise me if they made it to the superbowl.

 
Just wondering what the end-game is with these AFC vs. NFC debates. With college football I sort of understand because the perception of general conference strength ends up factoring into poll voters rankings. But we don't have polls in the NFL so I guess I don't get the point?

Only useful purpose I can imagine is demonstrating that one conference is so superior that the current playoff structure should be shelved. But that thread was already started and it just ended up being one big fishing expedition.

 
When people discuss conference dominance, they usually infer Super Bowl play, not overall head-to-head or draft picks, etc.
See post 2. It's a bit of a flawed way to look at things. The NFC won the Super Bowl, but they also took last place. One team does not reflect the entire conference.
Its just that this is one of those boilerplate topics that pop up every couple of years and the conversation always goes the same way. Most people view it in terms of super bowl play only, then a little bit later others try to mix in other things like head-to-head, and then the debate goes back and forth and fizzles out.
 
When people discuss conference dominance, they usually infer Super Bowl play, not overall head-to-head or draft picks, etc.
See post 2. It's a bit of a flawed way to look at things. The NFC won the Super Bowl, but they also took last place. One team does not reflect the entire conference.
Its just that this is one of those boilerplate topics that pop up every couple of years and the conversation always goes the same way. Most people view it in terms of super bowl play only, then a little bit later others try to mix in other things like head-to-head, and then the debate goes back and forth and fizzles out.
I'm here to change the world. One thread at a time.
 
When people discuss conference dominance, they usually infer Super Bowl play, not overall head-to-head or draft picks, etc.
And this is the mistake. I will get slammed for this, but the bottom line is that the SB is one game. Anything can happen in one game. One call. One injury. One mistake. One funny bounce. An inch short. I think winning a SB, while important and while the goal, tends to be over rated a standard for assessing talent. It has no place in HOF discussions. And it has no place in comparing the quality of place from conference to conference. 2010 Packers and 2010 Steelers could play 10 and Steelers COULD win 8 of them. Of course, we can never know what would happen because unlike basketball and unlike baseball and unlike hockey, they only play one game. But it is quite possible that the better team loses.
 
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Clearly we don't have knowledge of what will happen in the next few years, but perhaps the NFC teams that won got hot at the right time and went on a late season run. The Giants haven't been as good. The Saints struggled more this year. The verdict is still out on the Packers.

If you look over a longer period of time, in the past 10 years, there were more AFC teams that won more consistently.

NEP 121 39

IND 115 45

PIT 106.5 53.5

PHI 102.5 57.5

GBP 96 64

SDC 93 67

BAL 92 68

Maybe that is starting to shift, but NE, IND, PIT, and BAL all still look like they are perennial playoff teams and SD statistically was very good even though they missed out this year.

 
Again we're talking about just the Super Bowl, but early Vegas odds for 2012 has the Pats as the favorite at 7-1, then the Packers at 8-1...followed by PIT, IND, BAL, and SD in I believe the 10 to 12-1 range. Point is, no other NFC teams in there.

 
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Clearly we don't have knowledge of what will happen in the next few years, but perhaps the NFC teams that won got hot at the right time and went on a late season run. The Giants haven't been as good. The Saints struggled more this year. The verdict is still out on the Packers.If you look over a longer period of time, in the past 10 years, there were more AFC teams that won more consistently.NEP 121 39IND 115 45PIT 106.5 53.5PHI 102.5 57.5GBP 96 64SDC 93 67BAL 92 68Maybe that is starting to shift, but NE, IND, PIT, and BAL all still look like they are perennial playoff teams and SD statistically was very good even though they missed out this year.
Every one of those teams had a franchise QB, except BAL. Which is why I pointed out that the bulk of the young franchise and potential-franchise QBs currently reside in the NFC.
 
The thing about that long run of Super Bowl titles by the NFC was not only the number of consecutive wins, but the fact that many of them were blowouts. The NFC wasn't just beating the AFC every year, they were usually crushing them. That doesn't happen anymore. Yes, the NFC has won three of the last four, but those wins were by 3, 14, and 6 points (and the 14-point win was a close game). I wouldn't read too much into it.

 
One thing that continues to surprise me:

We are now at 45 Super bowls.

Out of that number only twelve (12) have been won by teams originally founded in the original AFL or franchised in the AFC.

NE - 3

RAI - 3

MIA - 2

DEN - 2

NYJ - 1

KC - 1

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/super-bowl/

The Steelers, Colts, and Ravens (the old Browns) all came from the NFL.

That's a 33-12 statistical advantage for teams out of the original NFL or franchised in the NFC. And that's domination.

 
One thing that continues to surprise me:

We are now at 45 Super bowls.

Out of that number only twelve (12) have been won by teams originally founded in the original AFL or franchised in the AFC.

NE - 3

RAI - 3

MIA - 2

DEN - 2

NYJ - 1

KC - 1

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/super-bowl/

The Steelers, Colts, and Ravens (the old Browns) all came from the NFL.

That's a 33-12 statistical advantage for teams out of the original NFL or franchised in the NFC. And that's domination.
Teams out of the original NFL or franchised in the NFC that have Super Bowl losses to teams out of the original AFL or franchised in the AFC.Vikings 3 (4 Chiefs, 8 Dolphins, 11 Raiders)

Eagles 2 (15 Raiders, 39 Patriots)

Redskins 2 (7, Dolphins, 18 Raiders)

Colts 1 (3 Jets)

Packers 1 (32 Broncos)

Panthers 1 (38 Patriots)

Rams 1 (36 Patriots)

Falcons 1 (33 Broncos)

Vikings letting the NFC down here...

 
One thing that continues to surprise me:

We are now at 45 Super bowls.

Out of that number only twelve (12) have been won by teams originally founded in the original AFL or franchised in the AFC.

NE - 3

RAI - 3

MIA - 2

DEN - 2

NYJ - 1

KC - 1

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/super-bowl/

The Steelers, Colts, and Ravens (the old Browns) all came from the NFL.

That's a 33-12 statistical advantage for teams out of the original NFL or franchised in the NFC. And that's domination.
There were 15 NFL teams and 9 AFL teams in the year the Super Bowl first started. That would give the NFC teams almost twice the chance to win (actually 62.5% to 37.5%) by having more teams. The NFC has won 73.3% of the Super Bowls, so they have done better than expected. When you adjust due to the fact that NO and TB were not in those initial teams and were added post 1966, their win rate drops slightly to 70% at 31-12. A 62.5% win rate would be 30-13. Bottom line, the NFC won 1 more Super Bowl than would be expected.
 

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