Interesting Stats Regarding Manning and a bye week (1 Viewer)

[Modog814]

I just read a story on ESPN about how Manning was talking to Marino, and telling him how from watching the film of the Bears Defense he thought certain things could work against them. That got me thinking about what effect an extra week of study of film for Manning has on his performance. I'm not sure exactly what it means, or if it's useful at all, but in a week that's dragging in interesting storylines, I'd figure I'd throw this out:

The baseline I used was Mannings career per game averages of:

21.74 comp 33.05 att (63.9%) 261 ypg, 1.9 td/gm .965 int/g

Going back to the 1998 season when Manning first came into the league he's played in 11 games following a bye week. His record, an unimpressive 5-6. However, he has won 4 of the last 6 and 5 of the last 8.

His average stats in those games:

23.6 comp 37.18 att (63.5%) 297.6 ypg, 2.45 td/g .636 int/g

So there does seem to be some increase in production. He's going for an additional 36 more yd/g, a .5 td/g and about a third fewer INT per game.

Another thing to point out, his worst performance in this data was in a 1999 Playoff game against Tennessee. The catch, it was also the one game where he didn't know who his next opponent was going into the bye week.

His stats for that game:

19-43 (44.1%) 227 yds 0 td 0 int

If you take that out of our averaging, his new set of averages are (when he knows the opponent)

24.1-36.6 (65.8%) 304.7 ypg 2.7 td/g .7 int/g

His stats look even better now compared to his baseline.

One more thing I want to look out, of his 6 losses in this situation (5 without Tenn Playoff game) the Colts lost those games by a combined 22 points (19 w/o Tenn) a 3.667 per game average (3.8 w/o Tenn). In addition no loss came by more than 5 points (losses of 5, 3, 3, 5, 3, 3).

In his 5 wins they've won by a combined 78 points, a 15.6 points per game average. In addition, no win came by fewer than 7 points (wins of 19, 7, 9, 19, 14).

Again, don't know if this means much, but just some food for thought.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Manning = smart

 

[Liquid Tension]

I just read a story on ESPN about how Manning was talking to Marino, and telling him how from watching the film of the Bears Defense he thought certain things could work against them. That got me thinking about what effect an extra week of study of film for Manning has on his performance. I'm not sure exactly what it means, or if it's useful at all, but in a week that's dragging in interesting storylines, I'd figure I'd throw this out:The baseline I used was Mannings career per game averages of:21.74 comp 33.05 att (63.9%) 261 ypg, 1.9 td/gm .965 int/gGoing back to the 1998 season when Manning first came into the league he's played in 11 games following a bye week. His record, an unimpressive 5-6. However, he has won 4 of the last 6 and 5 of the last 8.His average stats in those games:23.6 comp 37.18 att (63.5%) 297.6 ypg, 2.45 td/g .636 int/gSo there does seem to be some increase in production. He's going for an additional 36 more yd/g, a .5 td/g and about a third fewer INT per game. Another thing to point out, his worst performance in this data was in a 1999 Playoff game against Tennessee. The catch, it was also the one game where he didn't know who his next opponent was going into the bye week.His stats for that game:19-43 (44.1%) 227 yds 0 td 0 intIf you take that out of our averaging, his new set of averages are (when he knows the opponent)24.1-36.6 (65.8%) 304.7 ypg 2.7 td/g .7 int/gHis stats look even better now compared to his baseline. One more thing I want to look out, of his 6 losses in this situation (5 without Tenn Playoff game) the Colts lost those games by a combined 22 points (19 w/o Tenn) a 3.667 per game average (3.8 w/o Tenn). In addition no loss came by more than 5 points (losses of 5, 3, 3, 5, 3, 3).In his 5 wins they've won by a combined 78 points, a 15.6 points per game average. In addition, no win came by fewer than 7 points (wins of 19, 7, 9, 19, 14).Again, don't know if this means much, but just some food for thought.

I like the way you prefaced your analysis!Hard to know how significant it is, but it does show you that Manning tends to do better with more study time. I would think the same with a guy like Belichik. Interesting thought.

 

[PsychoMan]

crap

:bearsfan:

 

[Tau837]

Yes, but how many of those times did Manning's opponent also have a bye to prepare for him? Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful.

 

[cantrell]

Manning = smart

 

[Modog814]

Yes, but how many of those times did Manning's opponent also have a bye to prepare for him? Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful.

Interesting point. So I looked. It's occurred 7 Times (I didn't look at the playoffs because I'm only going to use games where the team knew they were playing Indy and had an extra week to prepare for them) Mannings record in those games is 5-2. Wins coming by (8, 2, 17, 3, 8), losses coming by (6, 3). So losses are still close, wins aren't as decisive. His average stats in those 7 games:24-36.86 (65%) 291.14 ypg 2 td/game 1.29 Int/g Interesting to see that all of his stats are better than his career average (except Int per game) but all are slightly worse than his after bye average. 4 of the seven games resulted in 300+ passing yards, only 1 had fewer than 200 (187) then next lowest being 237 and 252. He threw at least 2 Td passes in all but 1 game (he threw 1 in that game in his rookie season, he also threw 3 of his 9 interceptions in that game). He also threw at least one interception in every game.Again, not saying this means anything. But according to these stats it doesn't seem to show that an extra week of preparation for the defense amounted to greater success against Manning.

 

[Bri]

nice research and well presented too :thumbsup:

As the Pats enterred the Supe, in previous years, I often felt BB getting an extra week to prepare was sweet. However, I was often reminded that the other team too gets an extra week to prepare. Bears are a top D, I think that cancels out any perceived advantage

 

[RonMexico]

Yes, but how many of those times did Manning's opponent also have a bye to prepare for him? Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful.

Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful. Bye week or not, the advantage always lies with the offense because the defense doesn't know what is coming. That coupled with the other posters' assessment of Manning's intelligence tells me the Colts will have their way with the Bears.

 

[Bri]

Yes, but how many of those times did Manning's opponent also have a bye to prepare for him? Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful.

Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful. Bye week or not, the advantage always lies with the offense because the defense doesn't know what is coming. That coupled with the other posters' assessment of Manning's intelligence tells me the Colts will have their way with the Bears.

I disagree. A good amount of an NFL defense's success has been in their ability to disguise coverage.

 

[Wingnut]

Bye week or not, the advantage always lies with the offense because the defense doesn't know what is coming. That coupled with the other posters' assessment of Manning's intelligence tells me the Colts will have their way with the Bears.

You mean this one?

Manning = smart

That is a quality assessment.

 

[boubucarow]

So how exactly can we expect Manning's apparent ability to take advantage of a bye to come to fruition while also accounting for Manning's obvious shortcomings in the playoffs this year and in the past?

 

[jurb26]

Yes, but how many of those times did Manning's opponent also have a bye to prepare for him? Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful.

Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful. Bye week or not, the advantage always lies with the offense because the defense doesn't know what is coming. That coupled with the other posters' assessment of Manning's intelligence tells me the Colts will have their way with the Bears.

I disagree. A good amount of an NFL defense's success has been in their ability to disguise coverage.

I disagree as well. Manning has to take all 11 players on the D and comprehend what they are all doing in order to decide the best plan of attack for his O. Having an extra week to prepare schemes and techniques to confuse Manning seems like a plus for Chi IMO. Ricky Proehl was just on NFL network talking about how Manning "seems to know what the D is doing before they do." I find it hard to believe that Chi will make that easier for Manning given an extra week to prepare and design. Sure, Manning is probably one of the smartest football players in the NFL. He still has to worry about understanding and confusing 11 Chi defenders. The Chi defenders really just need to focus on understanding and confusing him.

 

[boubucarow]

Yes, but how many of those times did Manning's opponent also have a bye to prepare for him? Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful.

Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful. Bye week or not, the advantage always lies with the offense because the defense doesn't know what is coming. That coupled with the other posters' assessment of Manning's intelligence tells me the Colts will have their way with the Bears.

I disagree. A good amount of an NFL defense's success has been in their ability to disguise coverage.

I disagree as well. Manning has to take all 11 players on the D and comprehend what they are all doing in order to decide the best plan of attack for his O. Having an extra week to prepare schemes and techniques to confuse Manning seems like a plus for Chi IMO. Ricky Proehl was just on NFL network talking about how Manning "seems to know what the D is doing before they do." I find it hard to believe that Chi will make that easier for Manning given an extra week to prepare and design. Sure, Manning is probably one of the smartest football players in the NFL. He still has to worry about understanding and confusing 11 Chi defenders. The Chi defenders really just need to focus on understanding and confusing him.

I wonder if the biggest issue for Manning in this game is not being confused by what the Bears are doing. I suspect it might be the speed at which the Bears defense plays.

 

[jurb26]

Yes, but how many of those times did Manning's opponent also have a bye to prepare for him? Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful.

Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful. Bye week or not, the advantage always lies with the offense because the defense doesn't know what is coming. That coupled with the other posters' assessment of Manning's intelligence tells me the Colts will have their way with the Bears.

I disagree. A good amount of an NFL defense's success has been in their ability to disguise coverage.

I disagree as well. Manning has to take all 11 players on the D and comprehend what they are all doing in order to decide the best plan of attack for his O. Having an extra week to prepare schemes and techniques to confuse Manning seems like a plus for Chi IMO. Ricky Proehl was just on NFL network talking about how Manning "seems to know what the D is doing before they do." I find it hard to believe that Chi will make that easier for Manning given an extra week to prepare and design. Sure, Manning is probably one of the smartest football players in the NFL. He still has to worry about understanding and confusing 11 Chi defenders. The Chi defenders really just need to focus on understanding and confusing him.

I wonder if the biggest issue for Manning in this game is not being confused by what the Bears are doing. I suspect it might be the speed at which the Bears defense plays.

Beat me to my edit, but yes I agree. Chi's speed on D could certainly create problems. I'm not sure if they are as fast as Balt's D or not, but my assumption is that it's close. Balt really did have a lot of success against Indy as far as slowing them down is concerned. Should be a fun match up to watch.Anyway, I was going to edit and say that the same can and should be said about Indy's D vs Grossman. That is probably more concerning.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Yes, but how many of those times did Manning's opponent also have a bye to prepare for him? Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful.

Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful. Bye week or not, the advantage always lies with the offense because the defense doesn't know what is coming. That coupled with the other posters' assessment of Manning's intelligence tells me the Colts will have their way with the Bears.

I disagree. A good amount of an NFL defense's success has been in their ability to disguise coverage.

I disagree as well. Manning has to take all 11 players on the D and comprehend what they are all doing in order to decide the best plan of attack for his O. Having an extra week to prepare schemes and techniques to confuse Manning seems like a plus for Chi IMO. Ricky Proehl was just on NFL network talking about how Manning "seems to know what the D is doing before they do." I find it hard to believe that Chi will make that easier for Manning given an extra week to prepare and design. Sure, Manning is probably one of the smartest football players in the NFL. He still has to worry about understanding and confusing 11 Chi defenders. The Chi defenders really just need to focus on understanding and confusing him.

I wonder if the biggest issue for Manning in this game is not being confused by what the Bears are doing. I suspect it might be the speed at which the Bears defense plays.

Beat me to my edit, but yes I agree. Chi's speed on D could certainly create problems. I'm not sure if they are as fast as Balt's D or not, but my assumption is that it's close. Balt really did have a lot of success against Indy as far as slowing them down is concerned. Should be a fun match up to watch.Anyway, I was going to edit and say that the same can and should be said about Indy's D vs Grossman. That is probably more concerning.

Baltimore's corners are FAR better than Chicago's corners. Baltimore played Cinci twice etc...The Bears haven't played anyone like Indy's offense until last week and the snow and cold took a weak armed Brees out of their rhythm. The Bears better hope for bad weather or it will be ugly.This from a Bears fan (3rd favorite team)

 

[johnnybronco]

Yes, but how many of those times did Manning's opponent also have a bye to prepare for him? Not knocking your post, but I doubt this is meaningful.

Also, how many games were against defenses like the Bears.

 

[imeimex]

As a Bears fan, Mannings preparation is what I fear most. All in all the Bears defense is pretty vanilla and relies heavily on the athleticism rather than scheme. I think that Manning has the most problem with defenses that disguise things like the Patriots and the Ravens. Having watched the Bears since Lovie has gotten here, there are certainly spots in the defense that can be exposed, especially the soft coverage that is only really effective when the Bears are getting pressure with their front 4. I don't think there has ever been a smarter player to play in the NFL than Manning, and my deepest fears is that he picks these holes apart.

 

[redman]

Does anyone have Grossman's average blood alcohol level during bye weeks? TIA.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

OK - I'm going to say it outloud.

Remember the weakness Steve Smith exposed? The same one Anquon Bolden Exposed. And to a certain degree Marty Booker exposed?

The Bears are still what we think they are - the defense hasn't changed.

There is an issue with how they are going to cover Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison on the short screens.

If either of those two can wiggle free, it could mean big plays.

Plus if the Bears crowd the line to take away the short stuff, the Safteys have to be able to get over to help the CBs over the top. If one of those two can get free, that help may be difficult.

Again, I feel this game will be about ball control and getting an early lead for the Bears. If they can get the early lead they may be able to throw enough wrinkles in the defense to hold down Peyton for a while. Long enough for the offense to chew clock.

Hopefully the clock will strike midnight before the Colts can adjust..........