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If Republicans won the Presidency, House and Senate in 2020, what would the inflation rate be right now? (1 Viewer)

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I voted 5-7, but that's just an educated guess based on the assumption that the GOP wouldn't do a second stimulus package, and an educated guess that's part of what's driving this.  But a lot of this was baked into the system by the time Biden took office.  Any president would be dealing with moderate to high inflation right now.

 
KarmaPolice said:
What is it now? :bag:
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Pretty close...within any margin of error yeah.

Its almost as if it really didn't happen overnight and took years to build up.  Its almost as if on here and another board there were not warnings for years of hyperinflation and how we just kept kicking the can down the road.

Biden pushed us over the edge with the stimulus and yeah the policy to try and reign in our reliance on oil.  But to act as if its all him seems illogical

 
Damn near what it is now....the only thing that would change it by .5% or so is how much of a second stimulus they would have given.  If it was zero, you're likely right around the 8 number.  The three primary inflationary factors were the money printing in 2020, the unemployment package with the $600 payments and the unemployment package with the $300 payments.  

 
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The Commish said:
Damn near what it is now....the only thing that would change it by .5% or so is how much of a second stimulus they would have given.  If it was zero, you're likely right around the 8 number.  The three primary inflationary factors were the money printing in 2020, the unemployment package with the $600 payments and the unemployment package with the $300 payments.  
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Aren't they seeing inflation around the world too?  There's more at play than US stimulus.

 
Impossible to predict.  What would the effect be of not passing the 1.9T Cares Act, ? Putin not invading Russia?  Continued investments in the oil industry?  I can say, if those things were different, inflation would be lower.  How much, who knows.  2%, 3%?  If I had to guess I think we'd be in the 5-6% range.     

 
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moleculo said:
Aren't they seeing inflation around the world too?  There's more at play than US stimulus.
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There are literally dozens of factors.  These conversations blaming Biden individually are almost as dumb as lauding over Trump because "he" had GDP similar to admins prior to him.  All that's left to throw in the conversation is "quantitative easing"  !!!!!!!

 
Pretty much the same. When you juice the money supply 40% in two years you get inflation.

When you get 90% of your pharmaceuticals from China and 70% of your uranium from Russia you might want to consider making stuff in your own country. Rubles are backed by gold now. Dollars are backed by nothing. We owe about $800,000 per taxpayer in debt as a nation. We’re broke and have been for a long time now.

 
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I don’t understand inflation and all the triggers and honestly I don’t really believe many of you do either.  Because if folks really knew as much about our financial systems as they think they do then we’d have a lot more chets in the forum.

 
The better question is what would inflation be if we had a more responsible administration win in 2016 that didn't pressure the fed into slashing interest rates during a strong economy, leaving them with no recourse when covid hit other than promising to literally print unlimited money.

 
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Snotbubbles said:
Impossible to predict.  What would the effect be of not passing the 1.9T Cares Act, ? Putin not invading Russia?  Continued investments in the oil industry?  I can say, if those things were different, inflation would be lower.  How much, who knows.  2%, 3%?  If I had to guess I think we'd be in the 5-6% range.     
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:goodposting:
 

Great post, appreciate you including significant factors unlike others that blindly say “same” cause they want that to be true. Very good points. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
The better question is what would inflation be if we had a more responsible administration win in 2016 that didn't pressure the fed into slashing interest rates during a strong economy, leaving them with no recourse when covid hit other than promising to literally print unlimited money.
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Weird since you are revising history you aren’t going back another administration where the money printing really took off…….shocking.  :lmao:

 
Also, how did this thread go this long without anybody pointing out the busted numerical ranges in the poll?  Smoo would have been all over this one.

 
Neel Kashkari on 60 minutes    March, 23, 2020.

Interviewer:  Can you characterize everything the Fed has done this past week as essentially flooding the system with money?

Neel Kaskari:  Yes, exactly.

Interviewer: And there's no end to your ability to do that?

NK:  There's no end to our ability to do that.

Here's a graph of the M2 Money Supply

In March of 2020 it was at 15.99T. By January 2021 it was at 19.37T, a 21% increase. It's increased to 21.73T since then, another 12% increase.

There's your inflation. If you're one to place this all at the feet of Biden and the Dems, you'd be wrong.

 
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Captain Cranks said:
Neel Kashkari on 60 minutes    March, 23, 2020.

Interviewer:  Can you characterize everything the Fed has done this past week as essentially flooding the system with money?

Neel Kaskari:  Yes, exactly.

Interviewer: And there's no end to your ability to do that?

NK:  There's no end to our ability to do that.

Here's a graph of the M2 Money Supply

In March of 2020 it was at 15.99T. By January 2021 it was at 19.37T, a 21% increase. It's increased to 21.73T since then, another 12% increase.

There's your inflation. If you're one to place this all at the feet of Biden and the Dems, you'd be wrong.
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:goodposting:

Great post, appreciate you including significant factors unlike others that blindly say “better” cause they want that to be true. Very good points. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Also, how did this thread go this long without anybody pointing out the busted numerical ranges in the poll?  Smoo would have been all over this one.
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I assumed we’d round on estimates. 4.6 rounds to 5, 7.2 to 7, etc. I guess that doesn’t fit with < 2 but since 2 is often a target, I thought it was a good starting point.

Anyway, even with some possible confusion, it gives me the opinions I was curious about.

 
Captain Cranks said:
Neel Kashkari on 60 minutes    March, 23, 2020.

Interviewer:  Can you characterize everything the Fed has done this past week as essentially flooding the system with money?

Neel Kaskari:  Yes, exactly.

Interviewer: And there's no end to your ability to do that?

NK:  There's no end to our ability to do that.

Here's a graph of the M2 Money Supply

In March of 2020 it was at 15.99T. By January 2021 it was at 19.37T, a 21% increase. It's increased to 21.73T since then, another 12% increase.

There's your inflation. If you're one to place this all at the feet of Biden and the Dems, you'd be wrong.
Click to expand...
Certainly an important part of the inflation story. And yet, it needed to be done.

 
Juxtatarot said:
I assumed we’d round on estimates. 4.6 rounds to 5, 7.2 to 7, etc. I guess that doesn’t fit with < 2 but since 2 is often a target, I thought it was a good starting point.

Anyway, even with some possible confusion, it gives me the opinions I was curious about.
Click to expand...
Definitely telling.

 
Juxtatarot said:
I assumed we’d round on estimates. 4.6 rounds to 5, 7.2 to 7, etc. I guess that doesn’t fit with < 2 but since 2 is often a target, I thought it was a good starting point.

Anyway, even with some possible confusion, it gives me the opinions I was curious about.
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I know.  Just giving you a hard time.

 
The General said:
How did you arrive at the  2-4% range?
Click to expand...


I can tell you how I arrived in the 2-3% range.  First I looked at core inflation (removes food/energy from calculation) in the Eurozone it's at 3.8%.  So based on those numbers I figured pandemic driven inflation issues like supply chains and continued lockdowns affecting the world economy would be around regardless of which party was in control since they are factors that the US doesn't control. 

Then I figured, the first two stimulus were already out there before the election so they would add inflationary pressures regardless of which party was in control.  Based on that, I don't think the US would be able to attain a 3.8% core inflation like the Eurozone so it would be slightly higher.  The current core inflation for the US is 6%.  So why is the US 2.2% higher?  The 1.9T Cares Act is certainly one reason.  Our economy is totally different than the Eurozone as well.  Their workers have gone back to work, labor participation rate of nearly 75% compared to 62% in the US.  This has caused the US to have a higher wage growth than the Eurozone, those costs get passed to the consumer.  So without the Cares Act, it's possible that workers would have returned to the Labor Force faster which would help hold wages down which would help reduce the costs of goods.  It's all speculation, but those are some of the things I thought about.

 
Snotbubbles said:
I can tell you how I arrived in the 2-3% range.  First I looked at core inflation (removes food/energy from calculation) in the Eurozone it's at 3.8%.  So based on those numbers I figured pandemic driven inflation issues like supply chains and continued lockdowns affecting the world economy would be around regardless of which party was in control since they are factors that the US doesn't control. 

Then I figured, the first two stimulus were already out there before the election so they would add inflationary pressures regardless of which party was in control.  Based on that, I don't think the US would be able to attain a 3.8% core inflation like the Eurozone so it would be slightly higher.  The current core inflation for the US is 6%.  So why is the US 2.2% higher?  The 1.9T Cares Act is certainly one reason.  Our economy is totally different than the Eurozone as well.  Their workers have gone back to work, labor participation rate of nearly 75% compared to 62% in the US.  This has caused the US to have a higher wage growth than the Eurozone, those costs get passed to the consumer.  So without the Cares Act, it's possible that workers would have returned to the Labor Force faster which would help hold wages down which would help reduce the costs of goods.  It's all speculation, but those are some of the things I thought about.
Click to expand...
You picked 5-7% in the poll.

 
AAABatteries said:
I don’t understand inflation and all the triggers and honestly I don’t really believe many of you do either.  Because if folks really knew as much about our financial systems as they think they do then we’d have a lot more chets in the forum.
Click to expand...
I tend to agree with this.  I'm certainly no expert.   My problem is that the Biden administration doesn't seem to understand it either.  They admit that they didn't see it coming, and it's kind of their job to know these things.  Not mine.

 
GoBirds said:
Weird since you are revising history you aren’t going back another administration where the money printing really took off…….shocking.  :lmao:
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So you agree...it started prior to Biden and even Trump...but that both Biden and Trump contributed (along with Obama...though, Id go even further back than that as well).  And yet somehow...stating it would be about the same with more Trump is living in a bubble?

 
GoBirds said:
If you or @sho nuffcome up with a post worthy of one let me know…..until then good luck with the childish insults. #weakleftplaybookfail 😉
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I believe my post was worthy.  You seemed to agree with me...by stating that money printing started prior to Trump with Obama...that it was an issue that contributes to our current inflation.  We continued that style of printing money in the 4 years of Trump...as well as thus far under Biden. 

Do you agree...that fiscal policy that dates back at least to Obama, includes Trump and Biden...have contributed to our current record inflation?  That it was not just created in the last 18 months or so?

 
sho nuff said:
I believe my post was worthy.  You seemed to agree with me...by stating that money printing started prior to Trump with Obama...that it was an issue that contributes to our current inflation.  We continued that style of printing money in the 4 years of Trump...as well as thus far under Biden. 

Do you agree...that fiscal policy that dates back at least to Obama, includes Trump and Biden...have contributed to our current record inflation?  That it was not just created in the last 18 months or so?
Click to expand...
Wait board 🚔, your buddy made an unsolicited personal insult why aren’t you arresting him! Your bias is undeniable, please stop harassing me. 

 
Snotbubbles said:
I can tell you how I arrived in the 2-3% range.  First I looked at core inflation (removes food/energy from calculation) in the Eurozone it's at 3.8%.  So based on those numbers I figured pandemic driven inflation issues like supply chains and continued lockdowns affecting the world economy would be around regardless of which party was in control since they are factors that the US doesn't control. 

Then I figured, the first two stimulus were already out there before the election so they would add inflationary pressures regardless of which party was in control.  Based on that, I don't think the US would be able to attain a 3.8% core inflation like the Eurozone so it would be slightly higher.  The current core inflation for the US is 6%.  So why is the US 2.2% higher?  The 1.9T Cares Act is certainly one reason.  Our economy is totally different than the Eurozone as well.  Their workers have gone back to work, labor participation rate of nearly 75% compared to 62% in the US.  This has caused the US to have a higher wage growth than the Eurozone, those costs get passed to the consumer.  So without the Cares Act, it's possible that workers would have returned to the Labor Force faster which would help hold wages down which would help reduce the costs of goods.  It's all speculation, but those are some of the things I thought about.
Click to expand...
It's interesting that the labor participation rate is much lower in the USA. Part of that is because women in the Eurozone have much greater maternity benefits and frequently return to the workforce part-time (also why there is more gender equity in managerial positions in the USA). 

In Europe, they tended to use job retention strategies, instead of unemployment assistance, which led to a faster recovery in jobs post-pandemic. That would be paying people a reduced rate to stay in their current job during the pandemic.

Also, the author of the piece below in the NYT  speculates that Europeans hate their jobs less than we do. So, our tighter job market here may contribute to greater inflation. 

>>That may be an exceptional case (McDonalds worker getting $20 per hour in Denmark), but the U.S. does stand out among wealthy countries for having a low minimum wage, for offering very little vacation time and for failing to offer parental and sick leave. Maybe the poor quality of U.S. jobs is one reason so many American workers are reluctant to return.<<

What Europe Can Teach Us About Jobs

 
SoBeDad said:
It's interesting that the labor participation rate is much lower in the USA. Part of that is because women in the Eurozone have much greater maternity benefits and frequently return to the workforce part-time (also why there is more gender equity in managerial positions in the USA). 

In Europe, they tended to use job retention strategies, instead of unemployment assistance, which led to a faster recovery in jobs post-pandemic. That would be paying people a reduced rate to stay in their current job during the pandemic.

Also, the author of the piece below in the NYT  speculates that Europeans hate their jobs less than we do. So, our tighter job market here may contribute to greater inflation. 

>>That may be an exceptional case (McDonalds worker getting $20 per hour in Denmark), but the U.S. does stand out among wealthy countries for having a low minimum wage, for offering very little vacation time and for failing to offer parental and sick leave. Maybe the poor quality of U.S. jobs is one reason so many American workers are reluctant to return.<<

What Europe Can Teach Us About Jobs
Click to expand...


I think remote working will change the face of labor.  The quality of life people have while still being able to perform their job duties has skyrocketed (at least in my case).  Apparently I still get good performance reviews so my quality of work hasn't dropped.  I also find if very difficult to take vacation days now because prior I'd have to take a day or half day to do things like go to the doctor/dentist/run errands where now I can just stop working for a couple hours and do those things.  

 
GoBirds said:
Wait board 🚔, your buddy made an unsolicited personal insult why aren’t you arresting him! Your bias is undeniable, please stop harassing me. 
Click to expand...


Do you agree...that fiscal policy that dates back at least to Obama, includes Trump and Biden...have contributed to our current record inflation?  That it was not just created in the last 18 months or so?

That isn't harassment...that isn't board cop...that is a simple on topic question relating directly to a post you made.  Please stay on topic and give it a shot.

 
sho nuff said:
Do you agree...that fiscal policy that dates back at least to Obama, includes Trump and Biden...have contributed to our current record inflation?  That it was not just created in the last 18 months or so?

That isn't harassment...that isn't board cop...that is a simple on topic question relating directly to a post you made.  Please stay on topic and give it a shot.
Click to expand...
Why do you bother - have you or anybody else from "team blue" gotten an answer from GB? 

 
The General said:
There are quite a few who said less than 2 and 2-4 range. That is fantasy land.
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I think it would be around 5. I just wanted to see how many people are delusional to think that the stimulus, infrastructure and pausing of student loans for 2 years for the laptop class didn’t drive the number up considerably. If the Republicans remained in office, those 3 things wouldn’t have happened.

 
Philo Beddoe said:
I think it would be around 5. I just wanted to see how many people are delusional to think that the stimulus, infrastructure and pausing of student loans for 2 years for the laptop class didn’t drive the number up considerably. If the Republicans remained in office, those 3 things wouldn’t have happened.
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Those 3 things cut the rate almost in half?  I still think that seems overly optimistic looking around the globe and seeing similar rates.  

Those wouldn't happen, but we did have relief packages during covid - do you think there would have been 0 more spending bills if Rs were in charge?  Maybe not for those particular things, but it seems like everybody spends when they get into office.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
Those 3 things cut the rate almost in half?  I still think that seems overly optimistic looking around the globe and seeing similar rates.  

Those wouldn't happen, but we did have relief packages during covid - do you think there would have been 0 more spending bills if Rs were in charge?  Maybe not for those particular things, but it seems like everybody spends when they get into office.  
Click to expand...
5 is half of 8?

 
Philo Beddoe said:
I think it would be around 5. I just wanted to see how many people are delusional to think that the stimulus, infrastructure and pausing of student loans for 2 years for the laptop class didn’t drive the number up considerably. If the Republicans remained in office, those 3 things wouldn’t have happened.
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I don’t know if I agree that no stimulus would have passed. Infrastructure bill for instance got close to 70 votes in Congress. Everyone loves cutting checks in DC. See Captain Cranks post upthread about money supply.

Same FED in place.

That’s still a significant drop you are proposing even if none of those things happened. 

 
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