What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

If Raiders draft Watkins do you pass him at 1.1 in a Dynasty? (1 Viewer)

Do you draft Watkins 1.1 if drafted by the Raiders in dynasty?

  • Yes, no matter who else falls to what team!

    Votes: 87 47.5%
  • No, they don't call it the black hole for nothing!

    Votes: 32 17.5%
  • Maybe, depends who else goes where

    Votes: 64 35.0%

  • Total voters
    183
My point is nobody has really said he's going to bust. Some people are saying he has some physical limitations that are going to make it more difficult for him to be a top 10 wr. He's not blazing fast. He's not very big. He doesn't have great lateral agility. He can't jump very high.

It's not all bad through. He is on the heavy side. He is a physical receiver. He has great hands. He runs good routes. He has what appears to be elite acceleration.

I don't think anybody wants to use their 1.1 pick on the next Golden Tate. Do you?

 
Just a little list of "normal" size WRs who have had success in the NFL.

Antonio Brown

Garcon

Stevie Johnson

Reggie Wayne

Nate Washington

Keenan Allen

Victor Cruz

Golden Tate

Jordy Nelson (pretty much all the Packer WRs)

Greg Jennings

Jerricho Cotchery

Michael Crabtree
Why throw out WR's that don't have game like Watkins?

Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson have completely different styles....yet still way different from Watkins.

Watkins isn't nearly as quick/elusive as Brown....Nelson is much bigger and plays mostly on the outside.

Of your list(i'll play along) how many are consistent WR1s(top 12)?

Here's how many WR1 season's they've had(PPR):

Antonio Brown-1(2013)

Pierre Garcon-1(2013)

Victor Cruz- 1(2011)

Greg Jennings- 2(2011,2010)

Jordy Nelson- 1(2011)

Stevie Johnson- 1(2010)

Over a 4 year period: only 7 times has one of the players with his description produced as a WR1.

4 years X 12 players= 48 7/48= 14.6% of a player of his caliber having even 1 season of WR1 status. That's including Antonio Brown/Jordy Nelson who have different games than Watkins.

Like I said it's a low percentage and that's why I go with Mike Evans.

 
If you look at how many taller WRs without much lateral agility or explosion to separate out of cuts have multiple top 10 finishes you are going to get very similar numbers to those for the supposed Watkins comparables. I think Watkins has far less chance to bust (by which I mean not being a quality starting fantasy WR) and I don't see either one becoming Calvin or AJ. People are also discounting how very quick and fast Watkins plays because his straight line speed for half a football field wasn't elite. You have to watch instead of going off combine numbers for playing speed. He's exceptional. It will be interesting to see how NFL execs with a dozen times the information and analysis available that most of us have actually place these two. I see Watkins as having far higher floor and slightly lower ceiling. Team situation could lead me to pick Evans, but for now I have Watkins on talent alone.

 
My point is nobody has really said he's going to bust. Some people are saying he has some physical limitations that are going to make it more difficult for him to be a top 10 wr. He's not blazing fast. He's not very big. He doesn't have great lateral agility. He can't jump very high.

It's not all bad through. He is on the heavy side. He is a physical receiver. He has great hands. He runs good routes. He has what appears to be elite acceleration.

I don't think anybody wants to use their 1.1 pick on the next Golden Tate. Do you?
Yeah good comparison since Golden Tate is 5' 10" and Watkins is 6'1".

 
His height is just average, but his weight is extremely high for his height. I don't know if this has gotten enough play.

Here are some of the best big WRs in the NFL sorted according to BMI:

Andre Johnson - 29.5

Vincent Jackson - 28.9

Dez Bryant - 28.8

Victor Cruz - 28.3

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.3

Michael Crabtree - 28.1

Sammy Watkins - 28.1

Julio Jones - 27.8

And here are the 40 times for those players:

Andre Johnson - 4.41

Vincent Jackson - 4.46

Dez Bryant - 4.52

Victor Cruz - 4.47

Larry Fitzgerald - 4.48

Michael Crabtree - ??

Sammy Watkins - 4.42

Julio Jones - 4.34

The only person who's both thicker and faster than Watkins is Andre Johnson, and only by .01 seconds. So while Watkins doesn't quite have freaky speed, he has very good speed for a player with his bulk. When you combine his bulk with his speed, it's going to be a tough proposition for cornerbacks to deal with. Watkins isn't a Julio/Andre/VJax level freak, but then most people aren't treating him like that anyway. I think he can potentially be something like a Julio/Roddy hybrid.

I actually thought he was just okay in the drills at the combine. I don't think his movement is totally clean and precise. But being a big-framed WR with legitimate deep speed can cover up some minor flaws in that department. He'll be able to beat the press with his strength and his speed will make him a constant home run threat. He's shorter than Evans, but he's also thicker and significantly faster. So if you're going to say that Evans is the prototype while also suggesting that Watkins is deficient, I think maybe you're putting too much stock in the height alone.

 
This feels like AJ Green and Julio Jones couple years back. AJ was going to get thrown at by Andy Dalton and Julio was on his way to Atlanta. In my dynasty league, Julio went ahead of AJ.

AJ Green
2011 65 / 1,057 / 7
2012 97 / 1,350 / 11
2013 98 / 1,426 / 11

Julio Jones
2011 54 / 959 / 8
2012 79 / 1,198 / 10
2013 41 / 580 / 2 (5 games played)

If Evans ended up somewhere with a great QB and Sammy stuck in purgatory somewhere with a developing offense, I could see Evans being taken first, esp in TD-heavy formats.

(edited to add stats)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
As for the OP, a "bad" landing spot like NYJ or Oakland wouldn't change my mind at all. IMO supporting cast/situation are a lot more important for mediocre players than they are for impact players. So if you believe that Watkins is a top 15 NFL WR talent, it shouldn't matter much where he goes. He'll be successful anywhere.

Things move quickly in the NFL and teams with a horrible QB situation today can have a great one tomorrow with the right draft pick or FA signing. Moreover, the plus side of having a weak supporting cast is that you can pile up a lot of targets. Off the top of my head, Boldin, Michael Clayton, AJ Green, Josh Gordon, Mike Williams, and several other rookie WRs who made a solid impact right away did so with less than ideal QB help.

This kind of discussion came up a couple years ago when Blackmon went to the Jags. He's had his issues staying on the field, but when he's played I don't think the suckiness of the Jaguars has hurt him much. If anything, it's helped him amass high numbers of targets through lack of viable alternatives. If I were a big Watkins fan, I wouldn't let an Oakland or New York landing spot dampen my enthusiasm.

 
EBF said:
His height is just average, but his weight is extremely high for his height. I don't know if this has gotten enough play.

Here are some of the best big WRs in the NFL sorted according to BMI:

Andre Johnson - 29.5

Vincent Jackson - 28.9

Dez Bryant - 28.8

Victor Cruz - 28.3

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.3

Michael Crabtree - 28.1

Sammy Watkins - 28.1

Julio Jones - 27.8

And here are the 40 times for those players:

Andre Johnson - 4.41

Vincent Jackson - 4.46

Dez Bryant - 4.52

Victor Cruz - 4.47

Larry Fitzgerald - 4.48

Michael Crabtree - ??

Sammy Watkins - 4.42

Julio Jones - 4.34

The only person who's both thicker and faster than Watkins is Andre Johnson, and only by .01 seconds. So while Watkins doesn't quite have freaky speed, he has very good speed for a player with his bulk. When you combine his bulk with his speed, it's going to be a tough proposition for cornerbacks to deal with. Watkins isn't a Julio/Andre/VJax level freak, but then most people aren't treating him like that anyway. I think he can potentially be something like a Julio/Roddy hybrid.

I actually thought he was just okay in the drills at the combine. I don't think his movement is totally clean and precise. But being a big-framed WR with legitimate deep speed can cover up some minor flaws in that department. He'll be able to beat the press with his strength and his speed will make him a constant home run threat. He's shorter than Evans, but he's also thicker and significantly faster. So if you're going to say that Evans is the prototype while also suggesting that Watkins is deficient, I think maybe you're putting too much stock in the height alone.
You've used bmi before with rbs and that makes sense. But does it have the same validity with wrs?

 
EBF said:
His height is just average, but his weight is extremely high for his height. I don't know if this has gotten enough play.

Here are some of the best big WRs in the NFL sorted according to BMI:

Andre Johnson - 29.5

Vincent Jackson - 28.9

Dez Bryant - 28.8

Victor Cruz - 28.3

Larry Fitzgerald - 28.3

Michael Crabtree - 28.1

Sammy Watkins - 28.1

Julio Jones - 27.8

And here are the 40 times for those players:

Andre Johnson - 4.41

Vincent Jackson - 4.46

Dez Bryant - 4.52

Victor Cruz - 4.47

Larry Fitzgerald - 4.48

Michael Crabtree - ??

Sammy Watkins - 4.42

Julio Jones - 4.34

The only person who's both thicker and faster than Watkins is Andre Johnson, and only by .01 seconds. So while Watkins doesn't quite have freaky speed, he has very good speed for a player with his bulk. When you combine his bulk with his speed, it's going to be a tough proposition for cornerbacks to deal with. Watkins isn't a Julio/Andre/VJax level freak, but then most people aren't treating him like that anyway. I think he can potentially be something like a Julio/Roddy hybrid.

I actually thought he was just okay in the drills at the combine. I don't think his movement is totally clean and precise. But being a big-framed WR with legitimate deep speed can cover up some minor flaws in that department. He'll be able to beat the press with his strength and his speed will make him a constant home run threat. He's shorter than Evans, but he's also thicker and significantly faster. So if you're going to say that Evans is the prototype while also suggesting that Watkins is deficient, I think maybe you're putting too much stock in the height alone.
You've used bmi before with rbs and that makes sense. But does it have the same validity with wrs?
I think that the bmi is important in the sense that quality weight at a given height should help with durability and after the catch type plays (Watkins runs almost like a running back after the catch), but it is certainly not a replacement for height. Those other players who are studs are both tall AND have a great bmi. The ones like Cruz, as we've seen, are more dependent on outside factors such as system and QB play as well as long touchdowns. So while I think bmi is definitely not something to ignore, height should still be a simple metric that is considered.

 
The mainstream media tends to latch onto height as the main ingredient in "size" and I think that's obviously not thorough enough. Maurice Drew at 5' 6.6" 207 plays with a lot more power than Darren McFadden at 6'1.2" 211 because he has a much stronger and compact frame, even though McFadden is "bigger" if you just look at height and weight.

It is similar story at WR. All else being equal, a "thick" tall WR like Larry Fitzgerald will play bigger than a "thick" short WR like Victor Cruz. But just because Sidney Rice and Brandon Coleman are tall doesn't mean they have more ideal frames than shorter, but stronger WRs like Crabtree and Boldin. Tall and skinny will sometimes = easier to push around whereas short and stout can often make a player tougher to deal with.

What I'd say at both RB and WR is that overall size is important, but so is the height/weight ratio. For example, Dion Lewis has a higher BMI than Steven Jackson. Does this mean he runs with more strength? No, because at some level being taller and heavier is worth something even if the player is slightly thinner. Likewise, Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas play a lot bigger than Josh Boyce and Wes Welker even though they're thinner. If you want to get an accurate picture of the player's style and physique, it's not enough to look at either variable (height/weight and BMI) in isolation. You have to look at both of them.

If you just describe Watkins as undersized or even average sized, you are missing a big piece of the equation. His height is only average or slightly above average, but his height/weight ratio is near the top of the scale. So when you look at the two factors, he's closer to being a "big" receiver than an undersized one. You're not going to realize that if you just look at his height or weight in isolation. Watkins at 6'0.6" 211 will probably have a lot more functional strength than Jordan Matthews at 6'3.1" 212, even though a lazy or ignorant analysis might deem Matthews to have the more "ideal" frame.

 
The mainstream media tends to latch onto height as the main ingredient in "size" and I think that's obviously not thorough enough. Maurice Drew at 5' 6.6" 207 plays with a lot more power than Darren McFadden at 6'1.2" 211 because he has a much stronger and compact frame, even though McFadden is "bigger" if you just look at height and weight.

It is similar story at WR. All else being equal, a "thick" tall WR like Larry Fitzgerald will play bigger than a "thick" short WR like Victor Cruz. But just because Sidney Rice and Brandon Coleman are tall doesn't mean they have more ideal frames than shorter, but stronger WRs like Crabtree and Boldin. Tall and skinny will sometimes = easier to push around whereas short and stout can often make a player tougher to deal with.

What I'd say at both RB and WR is that overall size is important, but so is the height/weight ratio. For example, Dion Lewis has a higher BMI than Steven Jackson. Does this mean he runs with more strength? No, because at some level being taller and heavier is worth something even if the player is slightly thinner. Likewise, Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas play a lot bigger than Josh Boyce and Wes Welker even though they're thinner. If you want to get an accurate picture of the player's style and physique, it's not enough to look at either variable (height/weight and BMI) in isolation. You have to look at both of them.

If you just describe Watkins as undersized or even average sized, you are missing a big piece of the equation. His height is only average or slightly above average, but his height/weight ratio is near the top of the scale. So when you look at the two factors, he's closer to being a "big" receiver than an undersized one. You're not going to realize that if you just look at his height or weight in isolation. Watkins at 6'0.6" 211 will probably have a lot more functional strength than Jordan Matthews at 6'3.1" 212, even though a lazy or ignorant analysis might deem Matthews to have the more "ideal" frame.
I agree, but Evans is both thick and tall with a BMI of 27.7, so I think it is still fair to like him more.

 
The mainstream media tends to latch onto height as the main ingredient in "size" and I think that's obviously not thorough enough. Maurice Drew at 5' 6.6" 207 plays with a lot more power than Darren McFadden at 6'1.2" 211 because he has a much stronger and compact frame, even though McFadden is "bigger" if you just look at height and weight.

It is similar story at WR. All else being equal, a "thick" tall WR like Larry Fitzgerald will play bigger than a "thick" short WR like Victor Cruz. But just because Sidney Rice and Brandon Coleman are tall doesn't mean they have more ideal frames than shorter, but stronger WRs like Crabtree and Boldin. Tall and skinny will sometimes = easier to push around whereas short and stout can often make a player tougher to deal with.

What I'd say at both RB and WR is that overall size is important, but so is the height/weight ratio. For example, Dion Lewis has a higher BMI than Steven Jackson. Does this mean he runs with more strength? No, because at some level being taller and heavier is worth something even if the player is slightly thinner. Likewise, Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas play a lot bigger than Josh Boyce and Wes Welker even though they're thinner. If you want to get an accurate picture of the player's style and physique, it's not enough to look at either variable (height/weight and BMI) in isolation. You have to look at both of them.

If you just describe Watkins as undersized or even average sized, you are missing a big piece of the equation. His height is only average or slightly above average, but his height/weight ratio is near the top of the scale. So when you look at the two factors, he's closer to being a "big" receiver than an undersized one. You're not going to realize that if you just look at his height or weight in isolation. Watkins at 6'0.6" 211 will probably have a lot more functional strength than Jordan Matthews at 6'3.1" 212, even though a lazy or ignorant analysis might deem Matthews to have the more "ideal" frame.
I have to bullet point a response here

1) if taller and thick > shorter and thick...doesnt it hurt leverage and a players ability to bend. For rbs this means ability to break tackles, but for wrs it means ability to get in and out of breaks

2) catch radius is directly tied to size/athletic ability, nothing with bmi and I think is an important piece not discussed here. So again do u have any study that shows wrs with a higher bmi = more FF points?

3) while Watkins is thicker than Jordan Mathews now...why does that make him a better FF wr(in theory not skill set)? Furthermore, I would venture to guess that Watkins has a much lower probability of adding to his frame than Mathews. If Mathews gains 10 pounds, is he ideal framed now?

4) players reach a point where it's not advantageous to put on more size or weight...it limits flexibility and weighs them down...change of direction. Remember David boston. I would think rbs would want to be thicker than wrs. So what is the ideal bmi for a wr?

 
jurb26 said:
Milkman said:
He's being touted as the next mega - elite wr dude. Not the next Stevie Johnson.
He's being projected as the best WR in this draft but I don't think that's saying he's mega elite. I don't see anyone projecting him along the lines of Green, Julio, Calvin or Fitz type prospects.
Julio, Calvin and FItz had measureables that are crazy and stuff you just don't match as far as raw athleticism.

However, as far as an NFL prospect and ability I have no qualms about what I have seen from Watkins to say he has a ceiling as high as those guys.

 
The mainstream media tends to latch onto height as the main ingredient in "size" and I think that's obviously not thorough enough. Maurice Drew at 5' 6.6" 207 plays with a lot more power than Darren McFadden at 6'1.2" 211 because he has a much stronger and compact frame, even though McFadden is "bigger" if you just look at height and weight.

It is similar story at WR. All else being equal, a "thick" tall WR like Larry Fitzgerald will play bigger than a "thick" short WR like Victor Cruz. But just because Sidney Rice and Brandon Coleman are tall doesn't mean they have more ideal frames than shorter, but stronger WRs like Crabtree and Boldin. Tall and skinny will sometimes = easier to push around whereas short and stout can often make a player tougher to deal with.

What I'd say at both RB and WR is that overall size is important, but so is the height/weight ratio. For example, Dion Lewis has a higher BMI than Steven Jackson. Does this mean he runs with more strength? No, because at some level being taller and heavier is worth something even if the player is slightly thinner. Likewise, Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas play a lot bigger than Josh Boyce and Wes Welker even though they're thinner. If you want to get an accurate picture of the player's style and physique, it's not enough to look at either variable (height/weight and BMI) in isolation. You have to look at both of them.

If you just describe Watkins as undersized or even average sized, you are missing a big piece of the equation. His height is only average or slightly above average, but his height/weight ratio is near the top of the scale. So when you look at the two factors, he's closer to being a "big" receiver than an undersized one. You're not going to realize that if you just look at his height or weight in isolation. Watkins at 6'0.6" 211 will probably have a lot more functional strength than Jordan Matthews at 6'3.1" 212, even though a lazy or ignorant analysis might deem Matthews to have the more "ideal" frame.
I agree, but Evans is both thick and tall with a BMI of 27.7, so I think it is still fair to like him more.
Evans is also a tenth slower than Watkins in the 40, which is a pretty significant difference.

Here are some players that Evans compares to physically:

Mike Evans - 6'4.6" 231 (27.7)

Brandon Marshall - 6'4.4" 229 (27.6)

Demaryius Thomas - 6'3.2" 224 (27.8)

Julio Jones - 6'2.6" 220 (27.8)

He's almost the exact same size as Brandon Marshall. Marshall is also the player that I've heard him compare himself to in interviews. Their 40 times and vertical leap are almost identical. However, I don't think he's as athletic as Marshall on the football field. More of a long strider. Much less elusive. He's a bit stiff as an athlete and I don't find him to be very impressive in space. I don't think his initial burst is as good as Marshall's.

Demaryius might have the same BMI on paper. On the field, he looks heavier than that. He's also far more agile than Evans, albeit not as tall.

Julio is almost two inches shorter than Evans, so maybe he doesn't belong in the discussion despite the similar BMI. If you want to compare him with Evans, I'd say he's vastly more athletic. Much more explosive.

As much as I like to consider a player's combine numbers as an important part of the puzzle, they don't fully eliminate the need for subjective analysis. Part of that is because certain characteristics like initial quickness and fluidity don't show up in combine drills (look at Anquan Boldin, Keenan Allen, and LeSean McCoy). Another reason is because certain measures like BMI are not totally specific and comprehensive. A player's height/weight ratio tells you nothing about the distribution of that weight. A top-heavy player with chicken legs like Robert Turbin or Beanie Wells can come out looking great on paper, when in reality the distribution of his weight is less than ideal. On paper, Evans is a Brandon Marshall clone. On the field, they look like two totally different people.

Evans might have the same height/weight ratio as Marshall and Demaryius, but that doesn't make him the same player. He's not as good of a route runner and not as good in space. He's a tough prospect to peg because there really haven't been too many guys like him to come around in recent years. I find him to be a stiff route runner with very limited separation skills. A lot of scouting reports echo that observation. On the other hand, he's extremely tall with long arms. Maybe that will allow him to excel despite his other athletic shortcomings. Either way, I don't buy the idea of him as a safer pick or more prototypical physical specimen than Watkins. He has warts too.

 
1) if taller and thick > shorter and thick...doesnt it hurt leverage and a players ability to bend. For rbs this means ability to break tackles, but for wrs it means ability to get in and out of breaks
That's exactly what makes players like Demaryius, Dez, VJax, and Fitzgerald so valuable. Exceptional athletic ability is rare. Exceptional size is rare. Players with exceptional size AND exceptional athletic ability are extremely rare. You can see a clear analogy in the NBA. There are lots of hyper athletic 6'0" players. There are hardly any hyper athletic 6'8" players. That's what makes Lebron James such a monster. It's not that he's more athletic than shorter players like Chris Paul and Derrick Rose. It's that he's the only guy who combines the rare athletic ability with the rare frame.

What makes guys like Dez Bryant and Larry Fitzgerald so dominant is that they combine the movement skills of a smaller athlete with a large body. Same with Jimmy Graham. The fact that he runs 4.53 is not exceptional. The fact that he runs 4.53 at 6'6" 260 is exceptional. Most people that size can't move like that. When you find someone that big who can move that well, that's how you know you're dealing with a special athlete.

So maybe most tall receivers don't move well. The fact that Demaryius and VJax do move well is what makes them special.

4) players reach a point where it's not advantageous to put on more size or weight...it limits flexibility and weighs them down...change of direction. Remember David boston. I would think rbs would want to be thicker than wrs. So what is the ideal bmi for a wr?
The ideal would be somebody like Andre Johnson who has a massive frame, yet moves and runs like a smaller receiver.

Those guys are rare though. Most of the WR prospects in a given draft class will have some obvious warts. The general rule that I'd advocate is the same that I use at RB. If you're going to be thin, you'd better be fast. If you're going to be slow, you'd better be big. Typically, the guys with really blinding speed are also on the low end of the size spectrum (the fastest RBs of the past decade were almost all "thin" on the body type scale - Peterson, Spiller, McFadden, Charles, Chris Johnson, Reggie Bush, Jahvid Best). Typically, the guys who can get away with less than amazing speed have bigger bodies (Boldin, Bowe, Crabtree, Marshall, etc).

The mistake most people make is not evaluating the two variables together. If people are going to talk about Watkins as an athlete, they should understand the context. He's far thicker than the average WR prospect, which makes his merely "good" speed a lot more impressive. WR prospects who can run that fast are common. WR prospects with his size are common. WR prospects who can run that fast at his size aren't common.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Anyone saying that Watkins is small needs to actually look at some pics of him. It's just not true.

 
4) players reach a point where it's not advantageous to put on more size or weight...it limits flexibility and weighs them down...change of direction. Remember David boston. I would think rbs would want to be thicker than wrs. So what is the ideal bmi for a wr?
The ideal would be somebody like Andre Johnson who has a massive frame, yet moves and runs like a smaller receiver.

Those guys are rare though. Most of the WR prospects in a given draft class will have some obvious warts. The general rule that I'd advocate is the same that I use at RB. If you're going to be thin, you'd better be fast. If you're going to be slow, you'd better be big. Typically, the guys with really blinding speed are also on the low end of the size spectrum (the fastest RBs of the past decade were almost all "thin" on the body type scale - Peterson, Spiller, McFadden, Charles, Chris Johnson, Reggie Bush, Jahvid Best). Typically, the guys who can get away with less than amazing speed have bigger bodies (Boldin, Bowe, Crabtree, Marshall, etc).

The mistake most people make is not evaluating the two variables together. If people are going to talk about Watkins as an athlete, they should understand the context. He's far thicker than the average WR prospect, which makes his merely "good" speed a lot more impressive. WR prospects who can run that fast are common. WR prospects with his size are common. WR prospects who can run that fast at his size aren't common.
3rd time i've asked, what correlation is a "thick" WR to a better FF player?

Anquan Boldin is 6'1 220...Watkins is 6' 7/8 211...smaller and he doesn't play even close to as physical as Boldin.

I would say Watkins is much closer to a Victor Cruz 6'0 204 than Anquan Boldin. Cruz has much more quickness/explosion than Watkins...7.5 inches on the vertical alone.

Roddy White is 6'0 211 4.47, 41 vertical, and quicker

Nicks is 6'1 208 4.51, 36 vertical

It's not rare, I think people have Watkins pictured as this super explosive guy and he's not. Cruz/Roddy/Nicks are his best comparisons and they all tested better vertically. Watkins beat them all in the 40, but Cruz/White are much quicker...Nicks is about even. Less quick/explosive Cruz/Roddy is rare?

 
The mainstream media tends to latch onto height as the main ingredient in "size" and I think that's obviously not thorough enough. Maurice Drew at 5' 6.6" 207 plays with a lot more power than Darren McFadden at 6'1.2" 211 because he has a much stronger and compact frame, even though McFadden is "bigger" if you just look at height and weight.

It is similar story at WR. All else being equal, a "thick" tall WR like Larry Fitzgerald will play bigger than a "thick" short WR like Victor Cruz. But just because Sidney Rice and Brandon Coleman are tall doesn't mean they have more ideal frames than shorter, but stronger WRs like Crabtree and Boldin. Tall and skinny will sometimes = easier to push around whereas short and stout can often make a player tougher to deal with.

What I'd say at both RB and WR is that overall size is important, but so is the height/weight ratio. For example, Dion Lewis has a higher BMI than Steven Jackson. Does this mean he runs with more strength? No, because at some level being taller and heavier is worth something even if the player is slightly thinner. Likewise, Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas play a lot bigger than Josh Boyce and Wes Welker even though they're thinner. If you want to get an accurate picture of the player's style and physique, it's not enough to look at either variable (height/weight and BMI) in isolation. You have to look at both of them.

If you just describe Watkins as undersized or even average sized, you are missing a big piece of the equation. His height is only average or slightly above average, but his height/weight ratio is near the top of the scale. So when you look at the two factors, he's closer to being a "big" receiver than an undersized one. You're not going to realize that if you just look at his height or weight in isolation. Watkins at 6'0.6" 211 will probably have a lot more functional strength than Jordan Matthews at 6'3.1" 212, even though a lazy or ignorant analysis might deem Matthews to have the more "ideal" frame.
I agree, but Evans is both thick and tall with a BMI of 27.7, so I think it is still fair to like him more.
Evans is also a tenth slower than Watkins in the 40, which is a pretty significant difference.

Here are some players that Evans compares to physically:

Mike Evans - 6'4.6" 231 (27.7)

Brandon Marshall - 6'4.4" 229 (27.6)

Demaryius Thomas - 6'3.2" 224 (27.8)

Julio Jones - 6'2.6" 220 (27.8)

He's almost the exact same size as Brandon Marshall. Marshall is also the player that I've heard him compare himself to in interviews. Their 40 times and vertical leap are almost identical. However, I don't think he's as athletic as Marshall on the football field. More of a long strider. Much less elusive. He's a bit stiff as an athlete and I don't find him to be very impressive in space. I don't think his initial burst is as good as Marshall's.

Demaryius might have the same BMI on paper. On the field, he looks heavier than that. He's also far more agile than Evans, albeit not as tall.

Julio is almost two inches shorter than Evans, so maybe he doesn't belong in the discussion despite the similar BMI. If you want to compare him with Evans, I'd say he's vastly more athletic. Much more explosive.

As much as I like to consider a player's combine numbers as an important part of the puzzle, they don't fully eliminate the need for subjective analysis. Part of that is because certain characteristics like initial quickness and fluidity don't show up in combine drills (look at Anquan Boldin, Keenan Allen, and LeSean McCoy). Another reason is because certain measures like BMI are not totally specific and comprehensive. A player's height/weight ratio tells you nothing about the distribution of that weight. A top-heavy player with chicken legs like Robert Turbin or Beanie Wells can come out looking great on paper, when in reality the distribution of his weight is less than ideal. On paper, Evans is a Brandon Marshall clone. On the field, they look like two totally different people.

Evans might have the same height/weight ratio as Marshall and Demaryius, but that doesn't make him the same player. He's not as good of a route runner and not as good in space. He's a tough prospect to peg because there really haven't been too many guys like him to come around in recent years. I find him to be a stiff route runner with very limited separation skills. A lot of scouting reports echo that observation. On the other hand, he's extremely tall with long arms. Maybe that will allow him to excel despite his other athletic shortcomings. Either way, I don't buy the idea of him as a safer pick or more prototypical physical specimen than Watkins. He has warts too.
I would definitely agree that Watkins is safer, if I haven't already said that. And I definitely don't think Evans is a perfect prospect, which I've never said. But to say that Evans has a better chance of being elite I don't think is a stretch at all and that's my point.

 
Guys lets all watch the same highlight and comment. Maybe i'm seeing something different and it will make for a constructive conversation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Kjkh3yV8YA

1) :08 Great play and this is one thing I like about Watkins. He's a hands catcher and came back to the football...timed it out well and touchdown.

2) :28 At first glance it looks like Watkins burns by the CB #9 and later on in the play looks like he pulled something. However look at :44, it's another angle on the play...#9 bites on a pump from the QB and makes a false step and doesn't recover. #9 then looks at the football the entire way(not a great technique to recover when burned). So really Watkins capitalized on horrible CB play.

3) :51 Watkins catches a slant, lowers his shoulder, and then outraces the defense to the the endzone. Looking closer at the play though, 1:12 CB #5 lowers his head completely and is looking at the ground. Plus he doesn't bring his arms to wrap up. I think we can all agree that's a horrible tackle attempt, but Watkins showed power to break it...so that's a slight positive. #11 Connor Norman is a former walk on rSR Safety with 2 career starts...he almost catches Watkins from behind(Norman isn't fast). #28 is laboring running and he even gets to Watkins at the end. What am I getting at? This proves Watkins isn't a burner or even THAT fast.

4) 1:20 It's a good TD for Watkins on a WR screen, but it was blocked great. The first defender blocked(CB I believe) was the most difficult for him to get by. But #67 cut blocks a DB great and the OG/#1 Martavis Bryant double team the safety and nobody is left. Again, Watkins wasn't blazing fast on the play.

5) 1:35 can't see downfield if Watkins makes a move to set up the CB or not, but the safety is flat footed just after the snap for the run...making it a true one on one.

6) 1:50 CB #5 makes a poor play by taking too many false steps on the inside seam WR and can't recover back to Watkins. He simply catches and runs...#5 makes a poor tackle attempt after getting burned.

7) 2:09 the CB falls down prior to the ball getting there, making a pretty easy TD

8) 2:24 Watkins catches a Jailbreak screen. The OL misses the defender and Watkins breaks an arm tackle. Then he lowers his shouder and uses his power to gain extra yardage. Great play by Watkins

9) 2:50 Watkins catches a jailbreak screen, follows his blocker, lower his head and falls down. Unsure why he doesn't try to go to the outside or use his agility.

10) 2:58 Watkins does a nice job of working back to the QB and catching with his hands. I would've liked him to use his body more than he does to shield the defender from the pass.

I count 2 maybe 3 good to great plays by Watkins...and these were his "highlights"

 
are you saying that these are his best plays of the season? The rest of his tape is average?

I truly don't see your point.

Difficult to analyze a player based on a few minutes of video/

 
The mainstream media tends to latch onto height as the main ingredient in "size" and I think that's obviously not thorough enough. Maurice Drew at 5' 6.6" 207 plays with a lot more power than Darren McFadden at 6'1.2" 211 because he has a much stronger and compact frame, even though McFadden is "bigger" if you just look at height and weight.

It is similar story at WR. All else being equal, a "thick" tall WR like Larry Fitzgerald will play bigger than a "thick" short WR like Victor Cruz. But just because Sidney Rice and Brandon Coleman are tall doesn't mean they have more ideal frames than shorter, but stronger WRs like Crabtree and Boldin. Tall and skinny will sometimes = easier to push around whereas short and stout can often make a player tougher to deal with.

What I'd say at both RB and WR is that overall size is important, but so is the height/weight ratio. For example, Dion Lewis has a higher BMI than Steven Jackson. Does this mean he runs with more strength? No, because at some level being taller and heavier is worth something even if the player is slightly thinner. Likewise, Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas play a lot bigger than Josh Boyce and Wes Welker even though they're thinner. If you want to get an accurate picture of the player's style and physique, it's not enough to look at either variable (height/weight and BMI) in isolation. You have to look at both of them.

If you just describe Watkins as undersized or even average sized, you are missing a big piece of the equation. His height is only average or slightly above average, but his height/weight ratio is near the top of the scale. So when you look at the two factors, he's closer to being a "big" receiver than an undersized one. You're not going to realize that if you just look at his height or weight in isolation. Watkins at 6'0.6" 211 will probably have a lot more functional strength than Jordan Matthews at 6'3.1" 212, even though a lazy or ignorant analysis might deem Matthews to have the more "ideal" frame.
I agree, but Evans is both thick and tall with a BMI of 27.7, so I think it is still fair to like him more.
Evans is also a tenth slower than Watkins in the 40, which is a pretty significant difference.

Here are some players that Evans compares to physically:

Mike Evans - 6'4.6" 231 (27.7)

Brandon Marshall - 6'4.4" 229 (27.6)

Demaryius Thomas - 6'3.2" 224 (27.8)

Julio Jones - 6'2.6" 220 (27.8)

He's almost the exact same size as Brandon Marshall. Marshall is also the player that I've heard him compare himself to in interviews. Their 40 times and vertical leap are almost identical. However, I don't think he's as athletic as Marshall on the football field. More of a long strider. Much less elusive. He's a bit stiff as an athlete and I don't find him to be very impressive in space. I don't think his initial burst is as good as Marshall's.

Demaryius might have the same BMI on paper. On the field, he looks heavier than that. He's also far more agile than Evans, albeit not as tall.

Julio is almost two inches shorter than Evans, so maybe he doesn't belong in the discussion despite the similar BMI. If you want to compare him with Evans, I'd say he's vastly more athletic. Much more explosive.

As much as I like to consider a player's combine numbers as an important part of the puzzle, they don't fully eliminate the need for subjective analysis. Part of that is because certain characteristics like initial quickness and fluidity don't show up in combine drills (look at Anquan Boldin, Keenan Allen, and LeSean McCoy). Another reason is because certain measures like BMI are not totally specific and comprehensive. A player's height/weight ratio tells you nothing about the distribution of that weight. A top-heavy player with chicken legs like Robert Turbin or Beanie Wells can come out looking great on paper, when in reality the distribution of his weight is less than ideal. On paper, Evans is a Brandon Marshall clone. On the field, they look like two totally different people.

Evans might have the same height/weight ratio as Marshall and Demaryius, but that doesn't make him the same player. He's not as good of a route runner and not as good in space. He's a tough prospect to peg because there really haven't been too many guys like him to come around in recent years. I find him to be a stiff route runner with very limited separation skills. A lot of scouting reports echo that observation. On the other hand, he's extremely tall with long arms. Maybe that will allow him to excel despite his other athletic shortcomings. Either way, I don't buy the idea of him as a safer pick or more prototypical physical specimen than Watkins. He has warts too.
I would definitely agree that Watkins is safer, if I haven't already said that. And I definitely don't think Evans is a perfect prospect, which I've never said. But to say that Evans has a better chance of being elite I don't think is a stretch at all and that's my point.
I don't really see a strong case for that opinion though. Evans is taller, but also thinner and significantly slower. If you want to find fault with Sammy's height, you can just as easily find fault with Evans's lack of mobility. I don't think there's a strong argument that his ceiling is much higher when he has clear deficits there. He may be the better jump ball/red zone threat, but then he's not going to outrun too many people at the next level.

They're both flawed, but they're flawed in different ways. The people who prioritize hands/height/range will like Evans more. Doesn't mean it's the right take. It might turn out that the superior speed/explosiveness of Watkins will lead to him having the better career even though he's a lot shorter.

 
I think Watkins physicality is being underrated by many of you. Often times you seem him running by guys and he is great in space so he looks elusive or if he is avoiding contact but you can't mistake that for not being physical. He has the ability and has showed to by physical and run over db's. I also don't think it is a bad thing for a WR to avoid some unnecessary contact.

What makes Watkins special is he is great at everything and has no holes. He can be a possession guy, he can make plays down field, you can throw him a screen and he can take it to the house. He passes the eye ball test and is the consensus number 1 WR in a deep and skilled WR class. It is hard to find anyone with credentials speak poorly about Watkins and what he can do. You can move him around and play him in the slot or outside. I am the one who compared his game to Andre Johnson because that is the type of player AJ was/is.

I think some are looking to Watkins height and some of his screen usage to knock him. He is not a gimmicky player like Tavon Austin was. He is as close to a can't miss WR prospect you can have. This is nothing against Mike Evans who is also going to be a very good NFL WR.

 
are you saying that these are his best plays of the season? The rest of his tape is average?

I truly don't see your point.

Difficult to analyze a player based on a few minutes of video/
Good point, also the great players make it look easy.
This is why I don't put as much time into the shark pool anymore. Instead of looking at the video(just looked up 2013 highlights for Sammy Watkins) and commenting to make a fun conversation. It's just dismissed because it's against their thought process...their goes 30 minutes of my life.

 
are you saying that these are his best plays of the season? The rest of his tape is average?

I truly don't see your point.

Difficult to analyze a player based on a few minutes of video/
Good point, also the great players make it look easy.
This is why I don't put as much time into the shark pool anymore. Instead of looking at the video(just looked up 2013 highlights for Sammy Watkins) and commenting to make a fun conversation. It's just dismissed because it's against their thought process...their goes 30 minutes of my life.
I liked the post and time spent on what you did. Debating a topic helps both sides to analyse the player more. I don't want to speak for him, but the youtube video is only a small portion of his career at Clemson. It was not a waste of a post though.

 
Sure, it might just be rhetoric, but if they mean what they say when they claim Schaub is their starting QB, I think it makes more sense that they go QB in the 2nd (or even 3rd).

 
Sure, it might just be rhetoric, but if they mean what they say when they claim Schaub is their starting QB, I think it makes more sense that they go QB in the 2nd (or even 3rd).
nevermind, its the Raiders... just never know what they'll do.

 
Sure, it might just be rhetoric, but if they mean what they say when they claim Schaub is their starting QB, I think it makes more sense that they go QB in the 2nd (or even 3rd).
Schaub is actually a good stop-gap if they are drafting a QB in the 2nd to develop.

 
Guys, Watkins is an elite WR prospect. Trust the scouts. He's a Top 3-5 talent in this year's draft for a reason. Evans might end up being better in the long run, but Watkins should be an immediate starter and integral part of whoever drafts him's offense.

 
When the Raiders cut Pryor their pretty much saying "we're going QB 1st"
Really? I don't see that at all. Pryor was third string emergency QB, if that. What it does mean that it pretty much guarantees the Raiders will at some point take a QB. But I highly doubt they will use a 1st.

 
Guys, Watkins is an elite WR prospect. Trust the scouts. He's a Top 3-5 talent in this year's draft for a reason. Evans might end up being better in the long run, but Watkins should be an immediate starter and integral part of whoever drafts him's offense.
Define elite? top 5 overall nfl WR...top 10?

I don't think Watkins is elite, personally. Trust the scouts? Even they're not 100% sure how a prospect will develop, work ethic, what will happen when a 21 year old kid gets millions of dollars, etc.

I find it so strange that everyone backs Watkins like he has no risk...the guy that's already been in trouble(weed).

 
Guys, Watkins is an elite WR prospect. Trust the scouts. He's a Top 3-5 talent in this year's draft for a reason. Evans might end up being better in the long run, but Watkins should be an immediate starter and integral part of whoever drafts him's offense.
Define elite? top 5 overall nfl WR...top 10?

I don't think Watkins is elite, personally. Trust the scouts? Even they're not 100% sure how a prospect will develop, work ethic, what will happen when a 21 year old kid gets millions of dollars, etc.

I find it so strange that everyone backs Watkins like he has no risk...the guy that's already been in trouble(weed).
What a reach! Any other potential warts you want to make up on Sammy Watkins? Geez!

 
Guys, Watkins is an elite WR prospect. Trust the scouts. He's a Top 3-5 talent in this year's draft for a reason. Evans might end up being better in the long run, but Watkins should be an immediate starter and integral part of whoever drafts him's offense.
Define elite? top 5 overall nfl WR...top 10?

I don't think Watkins is elite, personally. Trust the scouts? Even they're not 100% sure how a prospect will develop, work ethic, what will happen when a 21 year old kid gets millions of dollars, etc.

I find it so strange that everyone backs Watkins like he has no risk...the guy that's already been in trouble(weed).
What a reach! Any other potential warts you want to make up on Sammy Watkins? Geez!
http://chronicle.augusta.com/sports/clemson/2012-05-04/clemsons-sammy-watkins-arrested-marijuana-possession

You were saying?

 
Guys, Watkins is an elite WR prospect. Trust the scouts. He's a Top 3-5 talent in this year's draft for a reason. Evans might end up being better in the long run, but Watkins should be an immediate starter and integral part of whoever drafts him's offense.
Define elite? top 5 overall nfl WR...top 10?

I don't think Watkins is elite, personally. Trust the scouts? Even they're not 100% sure how a prospect will develop, work ethic, what will happen when a 21 year old kid gets millions of dollars, etc.

I find it so strange that everyone backs Watkins like he has no risk...the guy that's already been in trouble(weed).
What a reach! Any other potential warts you want to make up on Sammy Watkins? Geez!
http://chronicle.augusta.com/sports/clemson/2012-05-04/clemsons-sammy-watkins-arrested-marijuana-possession

You were saying?
I never refuted what you said, just think it's not a big deal in the context of future NFL HOF talent.

 
I don't think Watkins is an elite prospect, either. He's not AJ Green or Fitz IMO. He's still very good, just not elite to me. I can see him going in the top 5 but I've got him ranked about 7 in the class. I had Green and Fitz ranked 1.

 
Guys, Watkins is an elite WR prospect. Trust the scouts. He's a Top 3-5 talent in this year's draft for a reason. Evans might end up being better in the long run, but Watkins should be an immediate starter and integral part of whoever drafts him's offense.
Define elite? top 5 overall nfl WR...top 10?

I don't think Watkins is elite, personally. Trust the scouts? Even they're not 100% sure how a prospect will develop, work ethic, what will happen when a 21 year old kid gets millions of dollars, etc.

I find it so strange that everyone backs Watkins like he has no risk...the guy that's already been in trouble(weed).
What a reach! Any other potential warts you want to make up on Sammy Watkins? Geez!
http://chronicle.augusta.com/sports/clemson/2012-05-04/clemsons-sammy-watkins-arrested-marijuana-possession

You were saying?
I never refuted what you said, just think it's not a big deal in the context of future NFL HOF talent.
"...Make up..." is refuting my claim that he's already been in trouble for it.

Watkins isn't a HOF talent and you can quote me on that.

ETA: This is the time of year people get those rose color glasses and it's dangerous. Only so many players are elite in the NFL...only so many make the HOF...only so many are WR1's...etc. Just because a said prospect is the best in this class doesn't equate them as the next elite player in the NFL. Big differential there and whenever someone thinks a prospect is "safe"...I point to David Terrell "the safest prospect in the draft" so on and so on.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
There should be a "blue in the face" or "cows come home" emoticon in addition to the dead horse one.

 
Watkins isn't a HOF talent and you can quote me on that.
Who is in this class?

What do you mean by this?

thanks
HOF talent means they're going to be one of the best WRs to ever play this game.

Right now i'm not comfortable saying any WR in this class is a HOF talent. That would take a prospect with great measurables and very few flaws to their game.
OK. I didn't know if you meant they were going to be a HOF player, or just could be a HOF player. There is so much vaguery and hedging on this board, it's refreshing to read something solid like your post.

 
I compared Watkins' to Blackmon's measurables and they seem close. Sammy even seemed to be better. Blackmon looked good when he played on the worst team in the league so I have no fear of taking Watkins. Anyone care to debunk?

 
KellysHeroes said:
I compared Watkins' to Blackmon's measurables and they seem close. Sammy even seemed to be better. Blackmon looked good when he played on the worst team in the league so I have no fear of taking Watkins. Anyone care to debunk?
agree with this comp - I think Watkins (for multiple reasons) will be better.

 
Oakland has been a disaster for years because it was managed by an autocratic out of touch owner who thought himself still to be a savvy talent evaluator, so he ran roughshod over his hired employees who should have been making football and money decisions for him. After Al Davis died it has still taken time to turn things around because a 'normal' management group had to be rebuilt and the cap mess had to be cleaned up.

Don't assume Oakland will always be a horrible place for players coming out of college. The Davis years are behind us and they stand as good a chance as most bottom dwellers, present and past, of rising again. The NFL landscape is ever-changing, and to choose or avoid a dynasty WR based primarily on landing spot is short-sighted. We have no idea who the 2016 Raiders QB will be, and only a guess that in 2015 it'll be Schaub.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top