Hypothetical super bowl bet (1 Viewer)

[Masked Vigilante]

The bet: You win if either the Steelers, Patriots or Colts win the SB this year. You lose if any other team wins it. Assume the bet is for a substantial (a few hundred $$$ or thousand if you are a high roller) amount at even odds.

 

[delusional]

Wouldnt take it. Only 1 of those 3 teams will even make it to the superbowl and that is not certain either.

 

[TommyGilmore]

The bet: You win if either the Steelers, Patriots or Colts win the SB this year. You lose if any other team wins it. Assume the bet is for a substantial (a few hundred $$$ or thousand if you are a high roller) amount at even odds.

Current odds to win the Super Bowl:Colts 9-1Patriots 9-1Steelers 7-1You'd be better off placing individual bets on those 3 teams.

 

[shredhead]

Substantial bet - No, but If I was in a casino sports book section and that bet was offered, I'd throw a few bucks down on it and hope it came through.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I'll bet money those three do not win. I'd rather gamble with the Titans, Giants, or even the Chargers...

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

The bet: You win if either the Steelers, Patriots or Colts win the SB this year. You lose if any other team wins it. Assume the bet is for a substantial (a few hundred $$$ or thousand if you are a high roller) amount at even odds.

Current odds to win the Super Bowl:Colts 9-1Patriots 9-1Steelers 7-1You'd be better off placing individual bets on those 3 teams.

That's a terrible bet.

 

[TommyGilmore]

No, but If I was in a casino sports book section and that bet was offered, I'd throw a few bucks down on it and hope it came through.

I'll take a piece of this action. How about $20 via PayPal or the poker room of your choice?

 

[The_Wolfman]

If the bet was one of the teams to MAKE it to the Super Bowl, I'd consider it. But WIN it? No way. There's no guarantee any of them get there, but since there all in the same conference I'd take my chances of having two of them in the AFCC game and automatically winning the bet.

 

[CalBear]

My initial impression was no, I wouldn't take this bet (or rather, I'd prefer to bet on the field).

The sports book I looked up had all three teams at 7-1 odds for winning the Super Bowl, which translates to a 14.3% chance. If that is close to accurate, that means that the three teams together have a 37.0% chance. So that confirms my gut feeling that this would be a bad bet.

 

[gibfunk]

Whats worse? This bet or the one my buddies made for real? One guy took Oregon to win the national championship. The other guy got the field. For $100.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

My initial impression was no, I wouldn't take this bet (or rather, I'd prefer to bet on the field).The sports book I looked up had all three teams at 7-1 odds for winning the Super Bowl, which translates to a 14.3% chance. If that is close to accurate, that means that the three teams together have a 37.0% chance. So that confirms my gut feeling that this would be a bad bet.

[nitpick]7-1 --> 0.125 --> 33% chance that one of these three teams will win.[/nitpick]But your point is right, it's a bad bet at even odds.

 

[PolishNorbi]

I'm going to go lower than 33%

4.5-1, 4.85-1, 5.9-1 for winning conference. Superbowl is a 50/50 game, all bets are off.

Combined shot for any of the three teams to make it 59% according to bookmaker, 50% of that is under 30%

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Not an awful bet considering those three teams have won six of the past nine Super Bowls and were favored to win two more.

 

[mr roboto]

Not an awful bet considering those three teams have won six of the past nine Super Bowls and were favored to win two more.

I get the math. Bad bet.But...if I had to put a bet right now on AFC or NFC winning the SB, I'd say AFC by a good margin right now.So these at least 3 of the top 5 in AFC.Throw in your pick of the Jets or Ravens and I take the bet.

 

[PolishNorbi]

Not an awful bet considering those three teams have won six of the past nine Super Bowls and were favored to win two more.

I get the math. Bad bet.But...if I had to put a bet right now on AFC or NFC winning the SB, I'd say AFC by a good margin right now.So these at least 3 of the top 5 in AFC.Throw in your pick of the Jets or Ravens and I take the bet.

It comes down to match up.One thing I have noticed is the team that wins the turnover battle in the SuperBowl wins. IIRC 3 games have been won losing TOs and 2 were by the Steelers. You get a bad matchup with a defense that can cause TOs OR a team who gives up a LOT of TOs is a recipe for disaster. I'd think any AFC vs. NFC North would be a hard matchup (Giants/Redskins/Eagles) All are nasty in creating TOs, and with the right matchup they might win.

 

[Masked Vigilante]

If the bet was one of the teams to MAKE it to the Super Bowl, I'd consider it. But WIN it? No way. There's no guarantee any of them get there, but since there all in the same conference I'd take my chances of having two of them in the AFCC game and automatically winning the bet.

I think everyone would take that bet. They are arguably the three best teams in the AFC. The last time one of these teams didn't make the super bowl was 2002...that was the Raiders.

 

[FUBAR]

Not an awful bet considering those three teams have won six of the past nine Super Bowls and were favored to win two more.

I get the math. Bad bet.But...if I had to put a bet right now on AFC or NFC winning the SB, I'd say AFC by a good margin right now.So these at least 3 of the top 5 in AFC.Throw in your pick of the Jets or Ravens and I take the bet.

When does a collection of teams equal 50-50 against the field? Assume you get the Colts, Steelers and Patriots, then you get to add 2 more. You'd take the Jets or Ravens, I agree that the Jets would be a good addition but I'd want the Titans and Falcons added. then I'd consider making the bet.