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Nice
Roddy White, I barely knew you.
Not quite the same but this reminded me of when I dropped Randy Moss from a keep 4 league because he went to NE. "Going to a team where they throw to twelve receivers a game? Instant recipe for disaster, I'm out!"That hurt a lot, but only for a year or so...
year 1st rd 2nd rd 3rd rd1 23% 12% 4%2 26% 17% 12%3 38% 14% 9%4 15% 8% 5%after 6% 6% 0%year 1st rd 2nd rd 3rd rd1 20% 7% 2%2 16% 10% 6%3 22% 5% 5%4 0% 5% 3%after 6% 0% 0%
I am this way with RB's and WR's. But i am learning slowing to just sit on them
Bump because this is such a quality post. Very well thought out and presented, thank you.
I agree with your strategy (but I'd rather have Julio). Another example is Harvin - obviously a lot of owners are fed up with him, but he's essentially a more elite (tho shorter) version of Little. The only WRs from last year that are worth more this year are Mike Williams and guys who were barely drafted like Jacoby Ford, David Gettis and Danario. Even guys who showed promise like Benn are worth less in 2011 pick value than what the team originally spent on them. GTate and McCluster are dirt cheap compared to last year.How long you sit on a guy is very situation dependent. You have to be honest about the upside and chance for success. Like Mardy Gilyard was a late 2nd or 3rd rd pick, but you gotta just cut him. He's buried in STL and even if he saw the field it won't be more than as a 3rd or 4th WR. Guys from last year like Taylor Price and Eric Decker are holds. They didn't do anything on the field last year, but they could be 1st or 2nd WRs, and their situations could open up. It's not worth swapping them for an even younger WR who'll also be buried or for a barely rosterable RB (although if they get a bigger deal done as a flier, let them go easily).
This is exactly why I created the strategy I have followed the last couple seasons. People spent rookie picks on them last year. What if you had traded those picks last year for Ryan Torain or Rashad Jennings because you like to handcuff? Or for any number of other, similar guys that may have started for you twice all season and you're cutting them now. Because now, if you really actually wanted Decker or Price (or similar), you could trade this year's mid/late round rookie picks to get them. Now - I personally still wouldn't target them, and you will miss out on hit rookies that aren't in the "gonna be a stud super hype" category that go top 5. But I think it minimizes your risk and you actually get more return overall. Not to mention freeing up roster slots and eliminating headaches that comes in the form of guys like Decker who you've held a year...and now gotta hold another one.
I like your post but don't really see Brandon Gibson as a guy who's situation bodes well for him. I'd say he's part of the poor system/cast and the improving is the drafting of Salas/Pettis/Kendricks and whatever they do in free agency. I think I see him how you see Blair White, except I've see more playmaking ability so far from White.
It's ironic you pointed this out out because, honestly, I didn't feel good about using Gibson's name there. You're right - I think he's a poor example of what I was trying to convey. You also highlighted another important consideration, that several factors can be blended together.
Could not disagree more. Rookie drafts are a goldmine for acquiring players before their value pegs. While I like Maclin quite a bit, it's a timid move to opt for him over Julio Jones or Greg Little.
How is it a "timid move?" It's a minimization of risk. At this point in their careers, which, between Little and Maclin, do you think has more risk? I think it's Little. He could still be a WR1, yes, but he could be a total bust. I have a hard time seeing Maclin as less than a WR2. If I can trade any pick after 1.05 or so in any given draft for a young guy who looks to have a WR2 floor based on actual NFL experience, and could be even better...I'll take that guy over whoever I can get with the rookie pick all day, every day, and twice on Sundays.Edit: and what do you think the bust rate is for those picks? If you think you're good enough at picking and choosing the guys who won't bust, more power to you. I realize that the professionals who get paid to do so aren't that great at it...and it's their job life. A full-time student who works 40 hours a week in the summer? No way in hell can I put in anywhere near the time that the professionals do, which would seem to vastly decrease the already not so great chances of success.
LOL.... potato, potahto.
You fail to address the larger point. I think there's a difference here between timid and intelligent. Goal of a business? Minimize risk, maximize reward. Goal of NFL teams? Minimize risk, maximize reward. Purpose of scouting? Minimize risk, maximize reward.Less busts means more good players. More good players means more chances of star players. Combined, this is how teams win titles. No different in a fantasy league.
But you don't know that you're "maximizing reward" here. Julio and Greg Little have tremendous upside, and could evolve into bona fide #1 fantasy WRs. If they do, and Maclin stays at a very good #2, then you lost out. I'm not saying your strategy is wrong, just that it doesn't necessarily mean that you'll always win out.
Right, but I think I should perhaps be a bit more clearer. I look at it as a ratio of risk:reward. Maclin has tremendously less risk than a guy like Little. Julio is a bit closer, and I would take Maclin, but wouldn't fault anyone for going Jones.The point is, Little might have a 1:3 chance of doing better than Maclin. He's got a 1:3 chance of being Maclin, and a 1:3 chance of being worse. Maclin has a 1:4 chance of being better, a 5:8 chance of being the same, and a 1:8 chance of being worse.Note: all that off the top of my head, and more for general purpose than the actual two players. I probably should just say Rookie WR and 1st/2nd Year WR who showed consistent promise. But the point is, yes, Rookie WR has a higher chance of being a better fantasy player. But 1 or 2 Year WR has a significantly lower chance of busting out - especially compared to the difference in the two's chances of being better. This is the first time I've tried to articulate this anywhere outside of my head, so let me know if it makes zero sense and I can give it another try.
makes complete sense. I would also take Maclin over a pick (that I could use to Little, Baldwin, etc). I can see where some people go for the home run and prefer Little but neither choice is a "wrong" answer
This intuition is right. Adding a bit to the numbers side:If we just look historically, Little has a small chance of ever achieving fantasy success. Rookie 2nd round WRs bust more than 2/3 of the time. In the remaining ~30% of cases, it gets trickier. From 1985-2000, the 2nd round of the NFL draft produced two stars - Isaac Bruce and Jimmy Smith - out of 58 selections. Productive 2nd round WRs from this era include Pickens, Givens, Muhammad, Toomer, Perriman, Slaughter, F. Anderson, B. Blades, V. Johnson, P. Price, Emanuel, etc. In other words, you are highly unlikely to get a "star" out of the 2nd round. Since 2000, 2nd rounders have done somewhat better. The best of the bunch have been Ochocinco, Boldin, V. Jackson, Jennings, and D. Jackson. Ochocinco and Boldin were legitimate stars and the others are good bets to continue to produce and to put together strong careers. From 2001-2009, 45 WRs were selected in the 2nd round and maybe 4-5 of those players will go on to be stars. There were a few other productive WRs (Chambers, Bryant, Branch) and the rest are either fantasy busts or too young to evaluate.To be charitable to 2nd round WRs, lets call it: 70% bust, 15-20% decent, 10-15% star.Maclin's a 1st round WR who posted quality fantasy numbers during his second season. Historically, he's in good company. Realistic comparisons (1st round WRs who posted good but not great sophomore campaigns after doing nothing as a rookie) include Andre Rison, Herman Moore, Burress, Boston, Conway, Toon, K. Robinson, and Javon Walker.It's hard to quantitatively speculate about the remainder of his career, but I think it's safe to say that Maclin is a much better fantasy prospect. I'd go so far as to estimate that he's worth about 5x as much as Greg Little and I think it's downright crazy to decree that Little has more fantasy "upside". Maclin's a better bet in every conceivable way. He's safer, has a better pedigree, and has at least as high of an upside (just look at his comps vs. Little's comps).
I think this is really helpful information. I'm working with a somewhat different set of data (mostly 1985-2000 and with 1st and 2nd round WRs lumped together) and a different WR baseline (WR30) but what I've seen matches up well with this. In terms of career prospects, it seems to me like the average career fantasy values of unproductive young WRs depreciates by about half for each season they are in the league. So, for instance, a rookie WR is worth about twice as much as a 2nd year guy who has done nothing (all other considerations being equal) and a 3rd year guy who hasn't broken out is worth half again, or about 1/4 of the original value. The actual numbers from 1985-2000, baseline WR30, for all WRs drafted in the first 2 rounds:1st year 0 VBD production : average of ~70 career VBD points per player
It devolved into Maclin over Little, but I don't think that was the point (it wasn't mine). The point was, in most drafts, I trade any pick from 1.04 on for a guy with a profile similar to Maclin: Previous draft pick, showed some promise after a season or two...rather than take a receiver who you have to wait a season or two for and has a higher bust chance.
Don't put your years on rookie wideouts. Wait a year or two and get them through FA or trades. Contract leagues make it even more crucial that you avoid busts - which means avoiding risk.
If we're talking about dynasty leagues, which is what this thread is about, of course you do still want rookies with good potential. To look at them through a rookie year only prism would show a real lack of understanding of the career curve of players and the point of having rookies on your roster. Except for the rare RB here and there, you should not be relying on rookie year production in this or any year.
True, but I am confused with your last line, as you can expect certain rookies to produce in certain situations.This was more or less a simple statement regarding rookies this year. You would draft rookies as you do every year. But I traded all my rookie picks, as I want nothing to do with this years rookies. I dont play to win titles in 3 years from now, I try to win now. This years rookies would not help me with that, but thats why people have different styles.
Although I'm sure it's obvious to some, upside is one of the main things I look at when it's time for cutdowns. For instance, if I think a player's skill set will likely leave him as a slot receiver/#2 receiver on a needy team I'll be okay cutting bait. Damian Williams is a name that comes to mind. I like him as a player, but for fantasy I doubt he'll ever be a guy I could start on a weekly basis. Or if a player has flashed the raw talent to become a team's #1 WR without production, I'll risk holding on a little bit too long, such as Sidney Rice after his first two years. Some younger examples like Emmanuel Sanders and Jacoby Ford are guys I'll be sticking with even if they don't reach expectations this year.
Where did Moss and Bryant go in rookie drafts though?It's like you didn't even read. Here, try this. It's not about whether or not you draft the #1 rated wideout on a yearly basis. It's about how long you should hold onto prospects, and it became a bit of a debate on whether or not you should draft those late first an beyond prospects to begin with.
He's aka HenryMuto if that helps with your WTF moment.
Oh is he? Why would you create a new username? Muto had some really stupid (abrasive) comments in the F&L Dynasty Rankings thread the last year or two iirc.
