barackdhouse
Footballguy
We're assuming he signs in Oakland before the draft here.
12 team PPR TE premium QRRWWTFFDK
Maybe around the 1/2 turn?
12 team PPR TE premium QRRWWTFFDK
Maybe around the 1/2 turn?
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How early to draft Lynch in rookie/FA draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter barackdhouse
- Start date
BoltBacker
Footballguy
If you took the time to read this post you are already too late.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Why?
Lots of leagues include free agents in the rookie draft.
Assuming he signs before the NFL Draft I'd consider him about on par with Bloom's "running backs I like more than I should" tier. But only contending teams should even consider him as his value can go to zero very quickly. So around round 6-7 in a 12 team idp.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Not even close. In non idp? Maybe round 4. Maybe round 3 with small rosters if you find you don't have room to wait for rookies and you can drop lynch and pickup a player with value during the year.
The guy might play well enough to start as one of your flex plays but there's a pretty good chance he loses all value by mid season.
Mavis
Footballguy
Tell me how those who drafted Treadwell are feeling after taking the sure thing WR last year in the top 5? Risk is everywhere, and it isnt minimized at any pick. If you need a RB and you have a shot to win this year why you picking just as likely gamble in the 2nd over a guy who can give you starter points this year? I'm not of the simple mindset that he wont be productive, I believe its more complicated than that. You take a guy in the 2nd that busts more times than you hit, so why are people freaking if you draft Lynch n the 2nd?
Alex Collins was an average 2nd round pick last year, how was that non wasted pick treating you? S. Perine or Marshawn Lynch... and I'm a contender, who am I taking in the mid 2nd? Lynch, every single time. That is providing he is an active football player at the time of my draft.
Alex Collins was an average 2nd round pick last year, how was that non wasted pick treating you? S. Perine or Marshawn Lynch... and I'm a contender, who am I taking in the mid 2nd? Lynch, every single time. That is providing he is an active football player at the time of my draft.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
A guy who is clearly a head case and has been out of football for over a year, and is past the shelf life of a NFL RB? I think I let someone else burn the pick on him and see if I can pry Jalen Richard loose from his frustrated owner for a 3rd or 4th rounder.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I was being facetious.-OZ- said:
People suggesting that he should be taken at the end of the 1st(or with the first pick in the 2nd round for that matter) need to pump the breaks a bit. Those same people talking about a PPR league need to pull the emergency break. My comment was aimed mostly at the OP.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Reminiscent of Barry sanders. Many people kept him for a while hoping he'd return.Dope said:
Mavis said:
nobody is freaking out about another owner talking lynch. I guess it depends on perspective. I don't draft in the 2nd or later looking for a "safe bet" (which lynch really isn't anyway), I'm looking for a player who has around a 50% chance of being a useful part of my team for years. Best case with lynch you get a player who is useful for a year or two. If that's what you want you're much better off trading for an older veteran player.
FWIW I gave my 2018 2nd rounder for Lynch and the 4.01 pick this year.
I won the championship last year and am in good position to make another run this year. All I need is some RB depth which Lynch may provide. Also assuming my 2018 2nd is late. I think that's a fair price to pay. I'm not expecting great things from him, but 1-2 years as a RB 3 would be great.
I won the championship last year and am in good position to make another run this year. All I need is some RB depth which Lynch may provide. Also assuming my 2018 2nd is late. I think that's a fair price to pay. I'm not expecting great things from him, but 1-2 years as a RB 3 would be great.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I am a contender and have 4 picks around the 1/2 turn. We have very small rosters but I do think there is a lot of 1-2 year upside with him in Oakland. Obviously the floor is that he totally busts. I don't think I mind that risk in this spot. Maybe I can trade one of those picks down and still snag him. But I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't make it to me in the first place. I guess my OP is two-headed. One is where would you take him, if at all, and two is where do you think he would go? Some good comments here and I appreciate it. I'd feel pretty silly if I let him slip by. There are a handful of transcendent running backs out there that have defined age and conventional wisdom. Is he one of them? I'll take a cheap gamble. Oakland offense and line has a ton of upside. But the risk is certainly obvious.-OZ- said:
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
In a different league with the exact same rules and commissioner, I was offered Lynch for my 2.04 and couldn't pull the trigger. That was when the story first broke. Now his offer is 1.07. No one has bit on it yet. I'm sure he has sent comparable offers to the rest of the league.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
In a rebuild, I sent Lynch/3.10 for a 2018 2nd. If contending, I'd pay a late 2nd today. Maybe a bit more once it's official.
Borden
Footballguy
At some point in the end rookie drafts I end up looking at players that I don't even really know anything about them. That's when I'd take Lynch.
He's at or past the RB cliff, was dealing with injuries before he left and how much is he really interested in playing if he only wants to play for his home team? It's not like he's signing on for one last shot at a ring.
The idea that most picks bust anyways is valid. However, if the rookie hits you might end up with a franchise building player. With Lynch you get 2 seasons max.
He's at or past the RB cliff, was dealing with injuries before he left and how much is he really interested in playing if he only wants to play for his home team? It's not like he's signing on for one last shot at a ring.
The idea that most picks bust anyways is valid. However, if the rookie hits you might end up with a franchise building player. With Lynch you get 2 seasons max.
-OZ-
Footballguy
With small rosters his value increases but I'm still not taking him over hunt or juju.
If your league has good players on the waiver wire and you don't usually hang on to unproductive first or second year players, I guess I can see taking him over someone you think will not produce and waste a spot.
I'm thinking about it relative to my only current league where I just traded the 26th player for Jeremy Hill. Hill might not out produce lynch this year (though I think he will) but he definitely has more value in dynasty. Or, a few years ago I traded a mid 2nd for Tiki barber after tiki had announced he would retire. I needed a rb and tiki was much more productive (ppr) than I think lynch will be.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I think the fact that I have 4 picks right in that area helps. I could still get 3 of Juju, Godwin, Henderson, Hunt, Foreman, maybe even Howard or Djoku. There are a number of rookies right in that area that I can take 3 rookie flyers and Lynch and feel pretty good with the decision.
I know he was a little younger but last example close to this I recall was when Mcfadden signed with Dallas. I want to say he was 28 coming into that season so younger but he signed a fairly cheap contract and not only where most of us unsure if he'd win the job but he did not, Randle did until he lost it.
With all that in mind I'd venture to say in leagues I was in DMC had an ADP of middle second round, sometimes as high as early second and I don't recall seeing him get out of round 2 but very late.
So Lynch is older, but better, will also run behind a dominant OL and unlike DMC if he signs we'll know he's signed to be the starter, though for sure I'd see Richard/Washington with good roles but Lynch would be the presumed starter.
I think that's worth what DMC was worth, so I'm thinking an ADP somewhere in he middle second seems about right if he's signed up.
With all that in mind I'd venture to say in leagues I was in DMC had an ADP of middle second round, sometimes as high as early second and I don't recall seeing him get out of round 2 but very late.
So Lynch is older, but better, will also run behind a dominant OL and unlike DMC if he signs we'll know he's signed to be the starter, though for sure I'd see Richard/Washington with good roles but Lynch would be the presumed starter.
I think that's worth what DMC was worth, so I'm thinking an ADP somewhere in he middle second seems about right if he's signed up.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Last year Woodhead went at 1.11 in one league and Crowell went at 2.6 in another. Stafford at 2.9.
DropKick
Footballguy
The bloom was off the rose for Treadwell by the time my drafts rolled around. He didn't sniff the top 5... You may be right that every pick has risk but, on the flip side, what is Lynch's upside duration wise? Two years max? Maybe two games?Mavis said:
I wouldn't touch him until the third but am fairly certain he will go in the second... someone is my league will pull the trigger by then.
branch0095
Footballguy
I'd have to see how any particular draft panned out before knowing exactly where I'd draft Lynch, but as a contender I'd be looking at him at the very end of the 2nd round in a 12 teamer. I'd be happy if Lynch was in one of my rookie/FA drafts, as I'm assuming there will be owners who draft him much higher than I would, thus pushing other players down the board.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Mavis said:
Who exactly is freaking?
Mavis
Footballguy
Figure of speech. Not trolling you here, but it seems figures of speech are taking quite literally these days.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I understand, but its odd that you'd use a figure of speech to describe something that isn't happening.
Mavis
Footballguy
Fair, but it can mean "having a tough time" but can we now shift the conversation to the meat of the discussion instead of a passing phrase I used that really had no bearing on the point in the post? Would hate to derail a thread over such trivial words.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
In my mind, "freaking" denotes a very definite picture of a person's state of mind and actions.
But I do agree that I'm not interested in a prolonged debate about semantecs and that the subject should go back to drafting Lynch.
So, are you completely out of your ****ing mind with thinking someone should draft Lynch that ****ing early? AAAAH! AAAAAH! AAAAAH!
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