How confident are you, today, in the results of the 2020 presidential election - August 30 edition (1 Viewer)

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

Has anyone here, EVER provided a link to "ballot harvesting" being a huge issue in voting?  It seems to be front an center in minds and we've been doing absentee balloting in all states for decades and some states have been "by mail only" for many years, so there's plenty of opportunity...do we have any incidents that rise to the level of fear some seem to have with this concept?

Here's one but it's a Republican so it doesn't count.

 

[jm192]

I actually think there is some cause for concern here.  Because everything I’ve read suggest that Trump voters are less likely to vote by mail than Biden voters.  If that holds up, the election night results will look very positive for Trump.  The networks won’t call it but Trump will say he won.  Then when mail ballots show Biden cutting into his lead or passing him, Trump and his supporters will scream that the election is being stolen from him.

I think there's a tremendous chance it's contested regardless of who wins.  Biden wins--the mail-in ballots were abused.  Dead people are getting ballots.  

Trump wins--the mail in ballots weren't properly handled, counted, etc.

 

[The Commish]

Here's one but it's a Republican so it doesn't count.

I learned from you lawyer guys not to ask many questions that I don't already know the answer to....there's one other incident in recent history (last 15ish years) and that one doesn't look too kindly on the GOP either.  Other than that you need to go back to 1996 I believe in Georgia.  NONE of these though were allowed through...people were caught and it didn't impact the proper appointment of the position.  The NC one caused a delayed appointment, but no one ever took office that wasn't supposed to.

 

[Snotbubbles]

This happens literally every single election.  It's estimated that 3-4% of all votes cast (mail or otherwise) are not counted.  If it becomes an issue by either "side" here, it's an issue out of ignorance  

Hey whats 3-4%?  Trump won Florida (1.2%), Michigan (.23%), Pennsylvania (.72%) and Wisconsin (.77%).  

 

[Summer Wheat]

As an engineer who understands systems, if we shotgun out 250M ballots and attempt to retrieve them without 50+ systems to do so, let alone preserve the integrity of the votes, I have roughly 0.0% confidence in this election.

The mail in campaign has disaster written all over it.

 

[The Commish]

Hey whats 3-4%?  Trump won Florida (1.2%), Michigan (.23%), Pennsylvania (.72%) and Wisconsin (.77%).  

I'm simply saying what you said wasn't new and happens every election.  It's part of the process.  We haven't been afraid of it in the past and there is nothing to be afraid of now and SHOULD be expected (regardless who wins)  

 

[Terminalxylem]

The mail in campaign has disaster written all over it.

Agreed. How can we make it better?

 

[The Commish]

Agreed. How can we make it better?

meh....there are two states throwing this thing together at the last minute.  The rest already had plans in the works to expand voting before COVID was even a thing or plan on using their already reliable absentee ballot process.  This stuff where people are posting the mass mailing of applications and saying it's ballots has gone beyond comedy to just pathetic.  I think NV plans on doing this if I read correctly...it's pretty dumb, but that's the one I know of.  It will be higher volume and as a result we probably won't know on election night, but so what?  If it gets more people voting, let's do this.

 

[Summer Wheat]

Agreed. How can we make it better?

"We" can`t. "We" have no say.

 

[Terminalxylem]

"We" can`t. "We" have no say.

What should be done to make it better, if anything?

 

[Summer Wheat]

What should be done to make it better, if anything?

Change election day?  Why Tuesday?  Why one day?  Do it on a weekend where it does not interfere with working people.  Or make election day a holiday. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

Change election day?  Why Tuesday?  Why one day?  Do it on a weekend where it does not interfere with working people.  Or make election day a holiday. 

I agree with a lot of this. Personally, I think we should expand the absentee voting process and allow in-person voting to occur over several days or weeks, to decrease crowds and optimizing distancing. But we still have to deal with issues like adequate staffing and safety for poll workers, plus increased measures to ensure the security of ballots.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I'm simply saying what you said wasn't new and happens every election.  It's part of the process.  We haven't been afraid of it in the past and there is nothing to be afraid of now and SHOULD be expected (regardless who wins)  

Except this year there could be as many as 75M (or more) people voting by mail instead of the maybe 20M (~23M in 2016).  If the same percentages hold, it could increase the number of invalidated votes by 2-3M.  But usually the issues with mail-in votes are from first time mail-in voters so I would predict that you would see the high range % of votes with issues and it could reach close to 4M votes invalidated.  That's a massive amount especially considering how close the swing States normally are.      

 

[Snotbubbles]

Change election day?  Why Tuesday?  Why one day?  Do it on a weekend where it does not interfere with working people.  Or make election day a holiday. 

Make election day a national holiday.  That should give people more than enough time to go out and cast a vote.      

 

[Rich Conway]

Make election day a national holiday.  That should give people more than enough time to go out and cast a vote.      

I'm unclear how that helps employees at most retail locations such as Walmart or grocery stores, which are generally open on other national holidays such as Thanksgiving, Memorial Day, etc.

 

[Thunderlips]

I don't think it's going to matter as I feel Biden people will vote in person when the times comes. 

In fact, on Election Night I think there will be way more stories (particularly from districts where Republicans are in charge of the voting process) about people being turned away at the booths/booths closing with people still in line etc. etc. than in years past...

AND

Election Night will be so favorable to Biden that Trump will do a 180 on mail in voting and start screaming about the potential mail in votes for him in the couple of weeks post election.  

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

In before the President repeats his "vote twice" suggestion in Florida and Arizona.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

I don't think it's going to matter as I feel Biden people will vote in person when the times comes.  

I'm in Maryland and I requested a mail-in ballot.  Apparently now that I've requested a mail-n ballot I am now prohibited from voting in person if I change my mind, unless I fill out some other request.  I don't know if it's like this in other states but it might not be possible for people to decide at the last minute.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I'm unclear how that helps employees at most retail locations such as Walmart or grocery stores, which are generally open on other national holidays such as Thanksgiving, Memorial Day, etc.

If you work in a profession that requires you to work on holidays, you vote absentee.  Or you go either before or after your shift.  

 

[sho nuff]

In before the President repeats his "vote twice" suggestion in Florida and Arizona.

And the AG won't confirm that it is, in fact, a crime to do so (voting twice is the crime...not the suggestion...its just awful to be coming from POTUS as he has once already)

 

[Rich Conway]

If you work in a profession that requires you to work on holidays, you vote absentee.  Or you go either before or after your shift.  

I guess I'm unclear why absentee is fine in so many instances (if you have to work, if you're out of state, if you're military), but it's unacceptable to simply allow everyone to do it.

 

[The Commish]

Except this year there could be as many as 75M (or more) people voting by mail instead of the maybe 20M (~23M in 2016).  If the same percentages hold, it could increase the number of invalidated votes by 2-3M.  But usually the issues with mail-in votes are from first time mail-in voters so I would predict that you would see the high range % of votes with issues and it could reach close to 4M votes invalidated.  That's a massive amount especially considering how close the swing States normally are.      

I have seen no studies that allow for this statement to be made.  I'm not saying the study doesn't exist, but if it does, I'd like to see it.  How about we stick with what we know to be true.  We know that every election 3-4% of the votes (in person or by mail/absentee) are rejected for various reasons.  So, in 2016 roughly 127 million people voted.  That means, on the high side, just over 5 million people's votes were rejected for one reason or another.  Without seeing a study supporting the bold above, how can we assume any sort of increase in voter rejection because someone voted by mail instead of voted by person?  That 3-4% we hit every election cycle includes both in person and mail/absentee.  Is your assumption that the additional increase in vote by mail is NEW voters and not people simply opting to vote by mail instead of in person?  If that's the assumption the increase you lay out above (52M additional votes).  That would put our total at 179M people who voted at 3/4% error gives us just over 7M rejected votes for one reason or another.  That's an increase of 2M rejected votes which means an additional 50M successful votes.  We are supposed to be concerned by this 2M (that we already accept as a margin of error today)?  Any other assumptions we'd need to work out based on the study you're using to say the bold.  

ETA:  I think there is a legit discussion to be had here to strip through all the fear stuff.  But we have to have a base set of assumptions in order to have that discussion.  I'm just guessing at what you are attempting to say here.  Without seeing the info you are basing your comments on, it's tough for me to do.  I want to be clear, I am NOT trying to put words/assumptions in your mouth.  Any clarification/point of reference would be appreciated.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Make election day a national holiday.  That should give people more than enough time to go out and cast a vote.      

Doesn’t help with crowds though.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Doesn’t help with crowds though.

It does a little bit - since you spread out the votes during the day, rather than large clusters early in the morning, and late in the day.

 

[Zow]

By the way, this has always been the case, but since Republicans tended to win by large margins nobody really paid attention until 2018 when Dems started winning races so naturally the AZGOP said it was fraud and a conspiracy.

Well Kelli Ward is a crazy person so...

 

[McBokonon]

Well Kelli Ward is a crazy person so...

And Gosar and Lesko and Biggs and Kelly Townsend and Nancy Barto and Jay Lawrence (he lost in the primary though) and Michelle Ugenti-Rita and...

 

[Van Dyman]

I voted 4 because I'm assuming (with zero factual basis) that the greater number of mail-in votes in precincts that have little experience handling that volume could result in a higher percentage of counting errors. AND, with mail-in votes representing a larger portion of the total an increase in errors here could matter.

Having said that, I don't worry about it being rigged and I expect the election will be honest enough to trust. We may eventually find and prosecute a few cases of ballot tampering but to me it seems unlikely that it would be a significant factor. Hope I'm right. Voter suppression, problems with the way some states purge voter rolls, etc. are a much bigger problem, imo.