Dan Hindery
Moderator
This is a topic I've really been pondering this offseason...
I think it's pretty obvious that 5-6 years ago and even as recently as two years ago, dynasty startup and rookie drafts skewed far too heavily towards RBs near the top of the draft and young WRs were undervalued. First rounds were dominated by RBs with a few WRs and QBs mixed in. The strategy of young WRs early and often mostly worked out (Dez, Julio, AJ, Megatron and others have produced and maintained their value) for owners who were smart enough to employ the strategy. And the teams who drafted older RBs too early found themselves bleeding value and looking for a replacement by year 2 or 3 in many cases (some RBs like McCoy, Peterson and Charles are exceptions and have provided nice value to people who drafted them 4-5 years ago).
However, the WR-heavy approach has gone from a brilliant way to go against the grain and exploit the market to find value to the orthodoxy. The majority of dynasty owners entering a startup draft are now looking to build their team upon the base of young WRs. Maybe it's just the leagues that I am playing in, but it seems to me the pendulum has now swung too far the opposite direction and young WRs are now overvalued.
As an example, in a recent dynasty startup draft (12 team PPR with 1/2/3/1 and 1 flex) I participated in, a whopping 17 of the first 50 selections were 1st or 2nd year WRs. That's over 1 in 3 picks that were spent on WRs drafted in either 2014 or 2015...
What's the over/under on WRs from the 2014/2015 rookie classes developing into impact WR1 or WR2s? 8.5?
It's never been easier to build a team around elite young RB talents if you wanted to. In fact, it's probably the first time I can remember in my dynasty experience that it is exceptionally easy to start a team with multiple top notch young RBs.
For example, in the startup draft I referenced, it would have been possible (drafting from the 6 hole) to have started the draft with 1. Le'Veon Bell, 2. Todd Gurley, 3. Melvin Gordon, 4. Ameer Abdullah, 5. Giovani Bernard and 6. Duke Johnson in the first 6 rounds. Obviously that is overkill and includes a bunch of unproven rookies. I wouldn't advise starting a draft with 6 straight RBs, but in terms of value...that's a pretty strong start and gives you a solid base to build upon and some pretty tantalizing trade bait assuming a few of the rookie RBs "hit" big. It's easy to grab TE and QB later so you are left only needing to find a few WRs to have a very nice team.
Sorry for the long, rambling post, but this was just something I have been pondering lately and wanted to throw it out there for discussion. I've found myself coming out of startup drafts this offseason with RB-heavy rosters (both Bell and Gurley on every startup team this offseason) and I'm not sure if the strategy is a wise way to exploit the current "groupthink" or something I'll end up regretting looking back in a few years. Thoughts?
I think it's pretty obvious that 5-6 years ago and even as recently as two years ago, dynasty startup and rookie drafts skewed far too heavily towards RBs near the top of the draft and young WRs were undervalued. First rounds were dominated by RBs with a few WRs and QBs mixed in. The strategy of young WRs early and often mostly worked out (Dez, Julio, AJ, Megatron and others have produced and maintained their value) for owners who were smart enough to employ the strategy. And the teams who drafted older RBs too early found themselves bleeding value and looking for a replacement by year 2 or 3 in many cases (some RBs like McCoy, Peterson and Charles are exceptions and have provided nice value to people who drafted them 4-5 years ago).
However, the WR-heavy approach has gone from a brilliant way to go against the grain and exploit the market to find value to the orthodoxy. The majority of dynasty owners entering a startup draft are now looking to build their team upon the base of young WRs. Maybe it's just the leagues that I am playing in, but it seems to me the pendulum has now swung too far the opposite direction and young WRs are now overvalued.
As an example, in a recent dynasty startup draft (12 team PPR with 1/2/3/1 and 1 flex) I participated in, a whopping 17 of the first 50 selections were 1st or 2nd year WRs. That's over 1 in 3 picks that were spent on WRs drafted in either 2014 or 2015...
What's the over/under on WRs from the 2014/2015 rookie classes developing into impact WR1 or WR2s? 8.5?
It's never been easier to build a team around elite young RB talents if you wanted to. In fact, it's probably the first time I can remember in my dynasty experience that it is exceptionally easy to start a team with multiple top notch young RBs.
For example, in the startup draft I referenced, it would have been possible (drafting from the 6 hole) to have started the draft with 1. Le'Veon Bell, 2. Todd Gurley, 3. Melvin Gordon, 4. Ameer Abdullah, 5. Giovani Bernard and 6. Duke Johnson in the first 6 rounds. Obviously that is overkill and includes a bunch of unproven rookies. I wouldn't advise starting a draft with 6 straight RBs, but in terms of value...that's a pretty strong start and gives you a solid base to build upon and some pretty tantalizing trade bait assuming a few of the rookie RBs "hit" big. It's easy to grab TE and QB later so you are left only needing to find a few WRs to have a very nice team.
Sorry for the long, rambling post, but this was just something I have been pondering lately and wanted to throw it out there for discussion. I've found myself coming out of startup drafts this offseason with RB-heavy rosters (both Bell and Gurley on every startup team this offseason) and I'm not sure if the strategy is a wise way to exploit the current "groupthink" or something I'll end up regretting looking back in a few years. Thoughts?