GPO 2020 - Will/should Pence be replaced as VP nominee? (1 Viewer)

[Rich Conway]

Any chance the GOP replaces Pence as VP nominee this year?  Heard from someone semi-connected in DC that the summer surprise may be that the GOP makes Pence the "fall guy for COVID-19" and replaces him with Nikki Haley.

My own DuckDuckGo research on this reveals lots of rumors and articles from last summer through about March, but virtually nothing over the past month or so.

Personally, I don't see it happening, nor do I see it helping Trump's chances in November if it did.

 

[Juxtatarot]

Yes. Particularly since Trump’s polling numbers are low.

 

[AAABatteries]

Will he?  Seems like something Trump would do - needs someone to blame.  I doubt there's many people who plan to vote for him because of Pence.  He may see Haley as an opportunity to get some female voters.

Should he?  As much as I disagree with some of his policies, I can't see that Pence has done much "wrong" except for providing cover for Trump's lies.   I think Pence is mostly a decent man with bigoted religious views and like many in the GOP sold his soul to the devil to ensure that a Republican was in the WH and made conservative SC selections.

 

[Rich Conway]

I should clarify.  "Will they?" is as straightforward as it sounds.  It's an opportunity for folks here to make a prediction.  Personally, I mean "Should they?" from the perspective of the GOP and whether doing so increases, decreases, or does not impact Trump's chances at winning.  I have my own thoughts on this, but because I know I have some biases here, I'll refrain from posting for now.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

I’m not sure I’d accept the offer if I was Nikki Haley.

 

[Rich Conway]

I’m not sure I’d accept the offer if I was Nikki Haley.

A separate and legitimately interesting question.  Assuming her goal was to run for POTUS on the GOP ticket in 2024, does accepting the VP nominee now increase or decrease her chances of getting the nomination?  Personally, I would conclude that it increases her chances at the 2024 nomination but hurts her chances at winning the general in 2024.

 

[HellToupee]

We all know Pence isn’t the heir to the MAGA throne , I suspect he knows it as well . We also know Donald rewards loyalty like no other. He values loyalty. From all reports Pence has been extremely loyal behind the scenes so unless he wants out or their relationship isn’t as good as reports I don’t see a replacement. 

 

[timschochet]

Doesn’t matter. Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. 

 

[lazyike]

A separate and legitimately interesting question.  Assuming her goal was to run for POTUS on the GOP ticket in 2024, does accepting the VP nominee now increase or decrease her chances of getting the nomination?  Personally, I would conclude that it increases her chances at the 2024 nomination but hurts her chances at winning the general in 2024.

If by chance Trump loses the 2020 election I don’t think Haley hitching her wagon to a losing candidate helps her gain the GOP nomination  either. The Republicans in that case will need to reboot and find a candidate that had little ties to the Trump administration. I am curious to see whether Haley will even campaign for President Trump. 

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Mike Flynn or Rudy Giuliani would make sense, but I personally don't think Paul Manafort would be the right fit. Maybe Roger Stone.

 

[joffer]

From their perspective, they should

From my perspective, i hope they don't

Will they? I'd make it 70-30 they don't

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Personally, I would conclude that it increases her chances at the 2024 nomination but hurts her chances at winning the general in 2024.

Yeah, the problem is that if Trump loses in 2020, his running mate will be tarnished for that reason. If Trump wins in 2020, the Democrats seem like a lock to win in 2024. It's rare for the same party to occupy the White House for more than 8 years. It happened with Reagan-Bush, but Trump is no Reagan. Before that, you have to go back to the FDR days.

 

[Osaurus]

An ear of corn will work. 

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

An ear of corn will work. 

So the current VP should not be replaced?

 

[lazyike]

An ear of corn will work. 

That would guarantee them electoral votes from Iowa

 

[Juxtatarot]

Yeah, the problem is that if Trump loses in 2020, his running mate will be tarnished for that reason. If Trump wins in 2020, the Democrats seem like a lock to win in 2024. It's rare for the same party to occupy the White House for more than 8 years. It happened with Reagan-Bush, but Trump is no Reagan. Before that, you have to go back to the FDR days.

Although Hillary and Gore both won the popular vote.  I'm not sure how much stock I'd put into the rareness.  

 

[jm192]

Doesn’t matter. Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. 

I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that Biden wins.  

But I think the Republicans would dramatically increase their chances by moving on from Trump.  Changing from Pence won't move the needle.

 

[[scooter]]

Maybe if they replaced him with a black.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Although Hillary and Gore both won the popular vote.  I'm not sure how much stock I'd put into the rareness.  

True, but it's hard to imagine the Republican Party in general becoming more popular after four more years of Trump. There seems to be a kind of political thermostat effect: when Republicans gain power, the country moves left in response; when Democrats gain power, the country moves right in response. I think we're seeing the country move to the left right now, in large part as a reaction to Trump. If it's not enough to sweep the Democrats into power in 2020, it will be by 2024, IMO.