It is super complicated but it is laid out right here for how Cincy can get #2 seed with a win and a Buffalo loss.
With uncertainty remaining over the Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals game, let's examine the playoff implications of the different situations.
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Let’s assume the Chiefs win on Saturday and lock up the top seed in the AFC. In that scenario, the Bills would secure the second seed in the AFC with a win on Sunday. But if the Bills lose and the Bengals win, then things get complicated. Both teams would be 12-4, meaning we must look to the
playoff tiebreakers for help.
The head-to-head aspect would not apply with the game being canceled, so we look to their conference record. The Bills and Bengals have 11 games in the conference. For both teams to get to 12-4, the Bengals would have to beat the Ravens, while the Bills lose to the Patriots. That would leave both teams at 8-3 in the conference.
The next tiebreaker is common opponents, but those 11 games in the conference also double as the common opponents. The two divisions played each other, and as both finished first in their respective divisions last year, they had the same opponents. That means we are once again tied at 8-3.
That moves us on to the strength of victory (SOV). Entering Week 18, the opponents the Bills have beaten combine for 92 wins. Meanwhile, the opponents that the Bengals have defeated have combined for 85 wins. With the assumption that the Bills lose to the Patriots and the Bengals beat the Ravens, that puts it 95-92 in favor of the Bengals.
When you compare their opponents, we can cancel out the eight victories against common opponents (Steelers, Patriots, Jets, Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, Titans, and Chiefs). That leaves each team with four victories to count. The Bills have the Packers, Lions, Bears, and Rams, while the Bengals have the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Buccaneers.
So, the Bills need to gain three wins in SOV over the Bengals this week to take it a stage further in the tiebreaker formula. With the Packers and Lions playing each other, the best the Bills can do is gain three wins. Meanwhile, the Bengals have the entire NFC South, so they should go at least 2-2. Both NFC South games ending in a tie would complicate matters, but the chances of two ties in games with no playoff implications seem extremely unlikely.
Therefore, what this all means is that if the Bills vs. Bengals game is canceled, the following can play out:
- The Chiefs will lock up the one seed with a win Saturday.
- If the Chiefs win, the Bills can secure the two seed with a win on Sunday.
- If the Chiefs lose, the Bills can get the one seed with a win Sunday.
- The Bengals are guaranteed to win the AFC North but cannot get to the one seed.
- The Bengals can finish as the two seed if they win and the Bills lose, but this would come down to the strength of victory tie-breaker.