Ezekiel Elliott has he begun to decline or just a down season? (1 Viewer)

[Biabreakable]

All year I have been hearing people say that Elliot is washed up. Not a good RB anymore. Pollard is better than him now.

His performance has been down compared to what it once was. There is no doubt about that this year, but is this the new normal? Has Elliot had too much wear and tear to be the player he once was now? Will he back to his elite level of performance in years ahead?

I gave 4 different choices. If your view isn't covered by those options vote other and post what your outlook for Elliot looks like.

 

[Gally]

I think the o-line issues, no qb, and dinged injuries have made it seem like he is done.  In addition Pollard has looked explosive with the same other circumstances so its easy to say he is done.

I think the nagging injuries this year zapped his explosiveness.  A calf injury can be really bad for RB's and I think it may have been worse that was led on as backed up by him missing a game late.

I think his elite time is over but he will still have another couple years of good production left especially if Dak comes back to how he started this year.

 

[ffmail4me]

I hate Dallas and that Ewok more than anyone...but I agree with Gally. Zeke will likely bounce back next year assuming Dak returns and they avoid o-line injuries better than they did this year. 

 

[barackdhouse]

For me the confounding x factor is that I think they'd be wise to continue to open up the offense in the passing game with the weapons they have. 

So even if Zeke isn't washed up and returns to his level of performance, will he get as many opportunities as he used to? In a passing offense? And that question is being posed assuming he still retains the workhorse role over Pollard, which is also in question. I think if Zeke plays like Zeke he will dominate the backfield but not sure if I like that or not. He might drop to the 2nd round of redrafts this year. Hard to pass.

 

[travdogg]

I think he is pretty much the same guy he always was. He was never an elite nfl RB. His situation allowed him elite production. That situation doesn't exist anymore, so what we saw this season is what he would have always been, in an average situation.

ETA: I think Pollard might be just as good or better than Zeke, but I don't think Dallas feels that way yet.

 

[popeye]

if I had picked Elliott at 1.8 this season I would have laughed out loud telling anyone who would listen it was the steal of steals.

If Elliott is on the board next season and I have the 1.8, I'm not sure I'd draft him.   

 

[barackdhouse]

if I had picked Elliott at 1.8 this season I would have laughed out loud telling anyone who would listen it was the steal of steals.

If Elliott is on the board next season and I have the 1.8, I'm not sure I'd draft him.   

I am thinking I'll have this same conundrum, but honestly I think it might last until the mid 2nd. If he is there at 2.05 for example. So he is there at 1.08 but you pass and take X of your choice. Do you pass him twice? I don't think it's as crazy as it sounds. That he would be there I mean. I don't know that I can pass him in the 2nd like that. But easy in the 1st.

 

[popeye]

I am thinking I'll have this same conundrum, but honestly I think it might last until the mid 2nd. If he is there at 2.05 for example. So he is there at 1.08 but you pass and take X of your choice. Do you pass him twice? I don't think it's as crazy as it sounds. That he would be there I mean. I don't know that I can pass him in the 2nd like that. But easy in the 1st.

I don't think I could pass at 2.05.   Not yet.

 

[Ack88]

I've said this in other threads, but I'll chime in here, too. Zeke remains a top 5 RB over the next 2-3 years. Pollard may slightly dent his touch total in 2021, but they have so much capital invested in him, I see it as highly unlikely he dips below bellcow status. The line will be healthier next year, Dak will almost certainly return and the defense, even if marginally better, will prevent these horrific game scripts Dallas has had to play under all season. He's a floor of 1200 yards and 9TDs. Remember, this guy is the model of durability- he nearly always plays.

As for where I think he should be drafted, I'd pick him as high as 1.05. (I'm a standard league player, so that's my lens)

Only CMC, Cook, Kamara, and Henry should be drafted ahead of him in re-draft/keeper.

You can make the case for Adams, Hill, Kelce, Hopkins and Thomas to go ahead of Zeke, too- putting 1.10 as my floor for him. (Personally, I just won't take a TE that high and Kelce is a beast, this is no knock on him, just a philosophical position.)

I'd be elated to draft him somewhere near the round 1-2 turn, but come August, don't see that happening. 

Don't be thrown off by the outlier season, Zeke is elite and a return to top 3 status is squarely within the range of outcomes next year. If you can buy now- do it.

 

[humpback]

I've said this in other threads, but I'll chime in here, too. Zeke remains a top 5 RB over the next 2-3 years. Pollard may slightly dent his touch total in 2021, but they have so much capital invested in him, I see it as highly unlikely he dips below bellcow status. The line will be healthier next year, Dak will almost certainly return and the defense, even if marginally better, will prevent these horrific game scripts Dallas has had to play under all season. He's a floor of 1200 yards and 9TDs. Remember, this guy is the model of durability- he nearly always plays.

As for where I think he should be drafted, I'd pick him as high as 1.05. (I'm a standard league player, so that's my lens)

Only CMC, Cook, Kamara, and Henry should be drafted ahead of him in re-draft/keeper.

You can make the case for Adams, Hill, Kelce, Hopkins and Thomas to go ahead of Zeke, too- putting 1.10 as my floor for him. (Personally, I just won't take a TE that high and Kelce is a beast, this is no knock on him, just a philosophical position.)

I'd be elated to draft him somewhere near the round 1-2 turn, but come August, don't see that happening. 

Don't be thrown off by the outlier season, Zeke is elite and a return to top 3 status is squarely within the range of outcomes next year. If you can buy now- do it.

While it may happen that everything falls perfectly for him like you're predicting, I don't think it's very likely. I mean, no one expected all of these bad things this year, but things happen. Chances are, either Dak, or the defense, or O-line, or Pollard, or injuries, or... will strike again, making it difficult for him to get back to that top 3-5 range. Time will tell.

 

[barackdhouse]

I've said this in other threads, but I'll chime in here, too. Zeke remains a top 5 RB over the next 2-3 years. Pollard may slightly dent his touch total in 2021, but they have so much capital invested in him, I see it as highly unlikely he dips below bellcow status. The line will be healthier next year, Dak will almost certainly return and the defense, even if marginally better, will prevent these horrific game scripts Dallas has had to play under all season. He's a floor of 1200 yards and 9TDs. Remember, this guy is the model of durability- he nearly always plays.

As for where I think he should be drafted, I'd pick him as high as 1.05. (I'm a standard league player, so that's my lens)

Only CMC, Cook, Kamara, and Henry should be drafted ahead of him in re-draft/keeper.

You can make the case for Adams, Hill, Kelce, Hopkins and Thomas to go ahead of Zeke, too- putting 1.10 as my floor for him. (Personally, I just won't take a TE that high and Kelce is a beast, this is no knock on him, just a philosophical position.)

I'd be elated to draft him somewhere near the round 1-2 turn, but come August, don't see that happening. 

Don't be thrown off by the outlier season, Zeke is elite and a return to top 3 status is squarely within the range of outcomes next year. If you can buy now- do it.

Those 9 will definitely go before Zeke in most instances. But Diggs, Ridley, Metcalf, Barkley, Mixon, Robinson, Gibson are all names potentially going before him as well. I'm not saying they should or shouldn't just that they will in some leagues and in some number. I'm assuming some sort of QB question gets worked out in WAS and JAX. But Akers, Swift, CEH, Dobbins, all guys that might get that kind of bump in the right league. I'd bet Zeke doesn't last past about 2.04 in most spots but I'll be he'll be there in more than people think. And I would guess 1.11 for ADP. 

 

[humpback]

I think he is pretty much the same guy he always was. He was never an elite nfl RB. His situation allowed him elite production. That situation doesn't exist anymore, so what we saw this season is what he would have always been, in an average situation.

ETA: I think Pollard might be just as good or better than Zeke, but I don't think Dallas feels that way yet.

Agree with most of this, although I think he has been less explosive than usual this year (and he was never what I consider "explosive"). Not sure how much was injuries or just the touches catching up with him, but agree that he's a good but not elite RB who has benefited greatly from the situation. Don't think that dream situation is likely to return, so while his production should certainly improve I think the days of top 3 upside are in the past.

 

[menobrown]

Not done but his elite days are for sure over. 

He was not exactly tearing it up as a runner when Dak was healthy so I'm tossing out that excuse.

The OL might be a little better but it's never going to be as good as it was in his early days and if people are using the OL as an excuse now then I hope those same people credited the OL for his success early in his career.

The lack of "juice" is apparent both to the eye and statistically . I guess people are chalking this up to his health but not me. I chalk it up more to wear and tear and Zeke not putting in the work in the offseason to put his body in peak condition. If someone wants to tell me "how do I know" the work he puts in I'll tell you in advance fine but he did not start the year looking like he was in great shape to me.

FYI on The Athletic they just did a 10 round mock draft that was half PPR and he was RB7, player 11 I believe. I think that's in range.

 

[menobrown]

He literally was RB2 thru week 6.

27, 22, 17, 20, 23, 12 (Dak Got Hurt) 123 points in reg ppr. 

That is tearing it up by every single meaning.

Not trying to be rude but it should have been clear when if you read what you bolded that I was speficially talking about what he was doing running the football, not his fantasy stats.

 

[MAC_32]

My eyebrow has long been raised about his offseason work habits. I get that week 15 was his first game missed due to injury though. Some preseason fluff would be comforting. Cause I think there is still some bounce back potential in him. 

 

[rockaction]

Voted good but not elite anymore. Would guess his YPC this year is low and there aren't any long runs in the offing save the one he just had against Philadelphia this weekend. His TDs are a function of the offense living in the red zone with Dak, Gallup, Cooper, and Lamb. Elliott didn't show me much this year, but that may have been a function of his line.

To the person upthread that said maybe the line will get credit if he comes back and hangs a great year, I say "Sure." Anything to ensure that he has a good year is fine by me. I'm a seller.  

 

[BoltBacker]

I think the o-line issues, no qb, and dinged injuries have made it seem like he is done.  In addition Pollard has looked explosive with the same other circumstances so its easy to say he is done.

I think the nagging injuries this year zapped his explosiveness.  A calf injury can be really bad for RB's and I think it may have been worse that was led on as backed up by him missing a game late.

I think his elite time is over but he will still have another couple years of good production left especially if Dak comes back to how he started this year.

I agree with most of this, although when it comes to RB's it doesn't make much sense to me to look much beyond one year at a time. When you really look at his contract the Cowboys would have to make a Gurley-esque move to spend almost $11mil in cap space just to get him off the roster in 2021 and as we saw with LA apparently ANYTHING is possible. Otherwise, it is pretty easy to for the Cowboys to move on from Elliot and save themselves nearly $6mil against the cap in 2022 by moving on from him. After 2021 Elliot has no guaranteed money left for the rest of his contract. If I were DAL I would continue to mix in Pollard on passing downs but would still squeeze out plenty of carries for Zeke in what might be his last year on the team in 2021. If he plays great with all those touches, no harm no foul he's being payed like an All-Pro and performing like one so they let the contract play out another year as the team likely contends in the NFC. If he continues to decline(or has more off-field problems) then they part ways.

 

[BoltBacker]

Voted good but not elite anymore. Would guess his YPC this year is low and there aren't any long runs in the offing save the one he just had against Philadelphia this weekend. His TDs are a function of the offense living in the red zone with Dak, Gallup, Cooper, and Lamb. Elliott didn't show me much this year, but that may have been a function of his line.

To the person upthread that said maybe the line will get credit if he comes back and hangs a great year, I say "Sure." Anything to ensure that he has a good year is fine by me. I'm a seller.  

I was actually fairly impressed that with all that has gone wrong with the DAL offense he has still managed over 4y/a. He's only a third of a yard worse per carry than Pollard, obviously with a much bigger sample size. Another key in all of this is the DAL defense which looks like a complete disaster. Admittedly, you couldn't have picked a worse year to make a drastic defense switch than 2020 with no training camp and limited practice time BUT it's been so bad I wouldn't be shocked if they moved on from Nolan after one year and start building this thing from scratch again as most of their best defensive players made a MAJOR regression under the new scheme.

If I were a seller I would "hold" for one more year. Even with everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, that went wrong with that offense this season it was still middle of the pack. With a completely healthy offense they could be top-5. While I would expect Pollard to be a bigger part of the passing game I would also expect the overall TD's in that offense to jump considerably. That would make Elliot more boom/bust as he becomes more TD dependent but his fantasy production should still good in 2021. 

In dynasty I would be an aggressive "buy" mode right now despite never liking his personality. I would be even more bullish in redraft but I'm guessing by June cooler heads will prevail and he'll still be considered a top-5 RB. Of course with Zeke you never know if he'll have a quiet offseason and he could easily make a questionable situation much worse off the field. If there is aggressive "coach speak" about the backup RB sharing more of the load he could also slip in redraft... so there are scenarios where his stock could continue to slide but his upside in 2021 is just too high to settle for what is likely being offered at the moment.

 

[rockaction]

but his upside in 2021 is just too high to settle for what is likely being offered at the moment.

I agree with what you wrote, especially this. My dream scenario is really that he bursts onto the scene next year with some big games and I can assess my team of mediocrity and sell him to a win-now for slightly inflated prices than right now. 

But I'm not selling now. Not at what I'm likely to get for him. If someone were to offer Taylor I'd take it, and maybe Dobbins or Swift with one other piece, but not Akers or CEH. I think he's worth more than those two. 

 

[DMXATF23]

Buddy of mine used to work for his Agent, the dude signed a big contract and checked out, sell now.

 

[socrates]

Buddy of mine used to work for his Agent, the dude signed a big contract and checked out, sell now.

My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Zeke pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious.

This is pure conjecture.  I am not really a fan of Ezekiel Elliott, but a guy who has "checked out" does not gut it out through nagging injuries.  I am not writing Zeke off yet.  He could be playing next season in the most explosive offense he has been a part of in Dallas, and while he may cede some receptions to other assets in the offense, a strong passing game should open some nice running lanes for Zeke.  

Zeke easily has a top 5 ceiling, but I understand there may be seemingly safer options early in fantasy drafts.  There is a certain amount of risk with drafting Zeke, but it will be built into his cost.  Despite having what everyone would consider a disappointing season, Zeke finished as RB7 in fantasy points in my PPR league.  I will take that as a floor.

Rumors of Zeke's death have been greatly exaggerated. 

 

[G-King]

My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Zeke pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious.

This is pure conjecture.  I am not really a fan of Ezekiel Elliott, but a guy who has "checked out" does not gut it out through nagging injuries.  I am not writing Zeke off yet.  He could be playing next season in the most explosive offense he has been a part of in Dallas, and while he may cede some receptions to other assets in the offense, a strong passing game should open some nice running lanes for Zeke.  

Zeke easily has a top 5 ceiling, but I understand there may be seemingly safer options early in fantasy drafts.  There is a certain amount of risk with drafting Zeke, but it will be built into his cost.  Despite having what everyone would consider a disappointing season, Zeke finished as RB7 in fantasy points in my PPR league.  I will take that as a floor.

Rumors of Zeke's death have been greatly exaggerated. 

DJackson10 alias?

 

[simey]

I've said this in other threads, but I'll chime in here, too. Zeke remains a top 5 RB over the next 2-3 years. Pollard may slightly dent his touch total in 2021, but they have so much capital invested in him, I see it as highly unlikely he dips below bellcow status. The line will be healthier next year, Dak will almost certainly return and the defense, even if marginally better, will prevent these horrific game scripts Dallas has had to play under all season. He's a floor of 1200 yards and 9TDs. Remember, this guy is the model of durability- he nearly always plays.

As for where I think he should be drafted, I'd pick him as high as 1.05. (I'm a standard league player, so that's my lens)

Only CMC, Cook, Kamara, and Henry should be drafted ahead of him in re-draft/keeper.

I would consider taking Robinson over Zeke. Robinson has had a turnstile of QBs this season, and his offensive line is just ok, their D sucks, yet he has had a great season even with opposing D's keying in on him. He has been the Jags best offensive player this season, and it goes beyond being a great runner. He is great at pass blocking and he has good hands too. His teammate Chris Thompson said early in the season that Robinson has great vision, and it's the kind that can't be taught.  He isn't a fumble machine like Zeke either.  Next season is unknown with who will be on the Jags coaching staff, but one thing is for sure, and that is that Robinson is a very good RB, and he should continue to improve. If they draft Trevor and he does well his rookie season, that should make things even better for Robinson.  

 

[menobrown]

Well in real football he had over 100 total yards in 4 of his first 5 games and 6 total TDs in that same time frame. He also was a playmaker out of the backfield, he avg just about 5 catches per game until dak got hurt. 

It's evident you are trying to defend Elliot but you chose to call me out on a post and then have proceeded to continue to bring up fantasy points and receiving numbers when the post of mine you chose to call out was about how he was doing as a runner. I'm good with a discussion but we are not discussing the same thing.

Now if you want to talk about how Zeke did as a receiver those 4 full games with Dak I will do so but to be clear that again has zilch to do with what you called me out on.

He got a ton of volume which is great for fantasy but I think the basis behind this thread was trying to ascertain how much Zeke has left in the tank, not his ability to be a fantasy compiler.

First let me step back to last years offseason for a minute. A lot of people were screaming to sell Fournette. I was not a buyer but I did not listen to the sell concerns either for a few reasons. Mainly because RB's are hard to give up and Fournette was three down back compiling fairly strong fantasy stats without even needing to score a TD. But those that warned to sell him did so in large part because when you break down the efficiency, when you get away from the fact it was volume that was making him a RB1 and not actually performing well.

Fournette in passing game in 2019:  76% catch rate, 5.22 yards per target, 6.846 yards per catch.

Elliot's full 4 games with Dak this year: 74% catch rate, 5.13 yards per target, 6.9 yards per catch.

Elliot's only real advantage those 4 games vs what Fournette did the previous year was he got a TD.

None of this is meant to say Elliot is on Fournette's level but it absolutely is meant to illustrate the difference between getting volume to compile fantasy stats vs actually playing well. Elliot got volume those 4 games with Dak, I don't see any metric that shows he was actually playing at a big time level.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Not done but his elite days are for sure over. 

He was not exactly tearing it up as a runner when Dak was healthy so I'm tossing out that excuse.

The OL might be a little better but it's never going to be as good as it was in his early days and if people are using the OL as an excuse now then I hope those same people credited the OL for his success early in his career.

The lack of "juice" is apparent both to the eye and statistically . I guess people are chalking this up to his health but not me. I chalk it up more to wear and tear and Zeke not putting in the work in the offseason to put his body in peak condition. If someone wants to tell me "how do I know" the work he puts in I'll tell you in advance fine but he did not start the year looking like he was in great shape to me.

FYI on The Athletic they just did a 10 round mock draft that was half PPR and he was RB7, player 11 I believe. I think that's in range.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1343552637673857024?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1343552637673857024|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html1343552637673857024

 

[menobrown]

Funny timing. I was literally just offered Zeke and Conner for 1.1 in a league I've been trying to find an upgraded RB1 for a few years now. Also I have Pollard. I passed fwiw.

 

[Concept Coop]

I went with “other”. He’s clearly lost a step and is not the same player he was a couple years ago. But the volume and offense could easily keep him in the top 5 fantasy players at his position.

 

[Concept Coop]

I went with “other”. He’s clearly lost a step and is not the same player he was a couple years ago. But the volume and offense could easily keep him in the top 5 fantasy players at his position.

 

[Biabreakable]

I went with “other”. He’s clearly lost a step and is not the same player he was a couple years ago. But the volume and offense could easily keep him in the top 5 fantasy players at his position.

That is a important distinction.

I wasn't sure how to set up the poll options to cover everyone. I am glad to see some people are voting for option 3 although I may not have worded it as well as I would like. I was getting the impression that quite a few people were down on Zeke and think his days as a starter are numbered. Then there is one Pollard owner. =P

Your view sounds to me similar to option 2 which is what the majority seems to be voting for. but with the caveat that it isn't based on the pure talent of Elliot but because of favorable circumstances around him.

We have all seen the career arc charts of these players. It is a young mans position. Most of the productivity is just much stronger for RB who are 25 and younger and Elliot is crossing that line now. Looking at the 2k combined yards for all RB the age 25 season does seem to be a high upside point many of these players careers.

Another data point I found though is that EE had a 2k combined yard season at age 23 which  puts him on a short list with Eric Dickerson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith, Steven Jackson and Edgerrin James of players who have accomplished that. To me that is some proof that Elliots game is (was?) elite.

 

[jtd13]

My eyebrow has long been raised about his offseason work habits. I get that week 15 was his first game missed due to injury though. Some preseason fluff would be comforting. Cause I think there is still some bounce back potential in him. 

This is it for me. Zeke's been a guy I always wanted to move off from early given he seems like a big time partyer.

If I'm looking at "mid-career" RBs to hold for the long term, I'll take a Chubb or Barkley over him. I don't personally know any of these guys but I'm way more confident in the latter 2 aging well. 

That said, I'd still give him good odds for 1 more elite fantasy season. I voted option 2, since they seemed most in line with how I overall feel about him going forward. 

 

[ffmail4me]

I would love to move him in the few leagues that I own him, but just think he's going to be a hard sell now. Guys will want to give a dime on the dollar. 

 

[FairWarning]

I think the o-line issues, no qb, and dinged injuries have made it seem like he is done.  In addition Pollard has looked explosive with the same other circumstances so its easy to say he is done.

I think the nagging injuries this year zapped his explosiveness.  A calf injury can be really bad for RB's and I think it may have been worse that was led on as backed up by him missing a game late.

I think his elite time is over but he will still have another couple years of good production left especially if Dak comes back to how he started this year.

I agree, he needs a lot around him to excel.  

 

[Bri]

New offense with 9? 10? offensive linemen hurt. 

Anyone that has been a fan of a team with a bad OL knows you just gotta discard the season in many ways.

Pollard looks good, but he always has. The defenses do not stack the box to stop Pollard. It's not the same.

The backup backup OL looked decent recently and their offense moved the ball well. If those backup linemen have figured things out and the Cowboys squeek into the playoffs....I would hate for my team to play them. I like the different conference Titans so it won't happen but we couldn't cover their WRs or stop Zeke. If you stew on this a bit, the Boys could be excellent next year with their line returning and adding a CB or two. I want the back of a top scoring offense so....if you guys could keep complaining of Zeke for 9months that would help me.

The Pats had a ton opt out. The Boys went through crazy injury numbers. Ya gotta be mindful that those two teams will be very different next year.

I wonder if some of these backup offensive linemen can be traded. They won't have 15 linemen next year so they have to do something.

Ya gotta look at the team as much as the back

 

[DallasDMac]

Can't blame him for the fumbling issues this year. All that "feed me" pantomiming was bound to weaken his wrists, making it tough to keep a firm grip on the ball. It's like carpal-tunnel on steroids.