In a poll a couple of weeks ago, a threat to democracy was the number one concern for voters.
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Exactly How Bad Will the Midterms be for the Democrats? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Well, considering some of those people follow the CRT and drag queens laser pointers around, I think the Dems will do just fine focused on women's rights.
FairWarning
Footballguy
CRT and drag queens dont pay the bills either.
FairWarning
Footballguy
Polls can be anything we want them to be. It depends on the wording and the people polled. If 36% of college women think men can get pregnant, that alone tells me about them.
rustycolts
Footballguy
Yep Dems could do fine especially when you have that war monger Linsay Graham touting a national abortion ban. What an idiot a perfect time to showcase the Dems out of touchness on inflation but no he has to bring up national ban on abortion. State decision what a goof.
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Right, but if the media and politicians direct the voters' attention that way, guess what rises in order of importance. People don't seem to be aware that they're constantly being played.
One such example
"Youngkin has hung his campaign on education, and it’s working. Traditionally a Democratic strength, the GOP nominee has flipped the script, blanketing the airwaves and peppering his stump speeches in recent weeks with pledges to increase K-12 funding and raise standards — and curb perceived liberal excesses, like rolling back protections for transgender students and restricting how individual public schools should teach subjects around race and ethnicity.
After trailing on the issue for months, Youngkin now runs ahead among voters who say education is their most important issue. In the Washington Post-Schar School poll, Youngkin once trailed McAuliffe by 33 points among the tiny slice of voters who said education was their most important issue. Now, as it’s surged to the No. 1 issue, Youngkin leads by 9 points among those voters."
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Bogeyman-culture-war-propaganda-blah-blah-blah
You forgot groomers and litter boxes in classrooms.
supermike80
Footballguy
Polls are fun!!!!
dkp993
Footballguy
Well the good news for the GOP is they have the coming Durham report and it’s bombshell findings that will sweep away any talk of Roe.
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dkp993
Footballguy
It honestly feels like self sabotage, it just makes no sense at all.
Bottomfeeder Sports
Footballguy
Yes, American Ideals like freedom, democracy, etc. are pretty big,
The General
Footballguy
West Virginia State Legislature Passes Near Total Abortion Ban
On the heels of Lindsay guaranteeing a vote on national abortion ban if Republicans take control over Congress.
Bold strategy, Cotton.
On the heels of Lindsay guaranteeing a vote on national abortion ban if Republicans take control over Congress.
Bold strategy, Cotton.
The Commish
Footballguy
I've seen you say that you and I disagree on everything, but I don't think you realize how much we agree on GB. I find myself agreeing with you on way more things than you realize.
rustycolts
Footballguy
Thanks friend appreciate it. I know we agree on some things and others we don't. At least when we don't you articulate things we'll enough that it gets me thinking. That was nice to hear after getting the bigot card thrown at me yesterday by Tommygunz.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Welp, they toted up the second choice votes from Palin and Peltola voters in the Alaska special election and sure enough Begich beat both of them in head to head matchups. (Palin was 0-2)
I don't think that happens very often with ranked choice voting but it definitely makes me think that approval or Condorcet voting may be the superior format when there are multiple candidates for a single office.
I don't think that happens very often with ranked choice voting but it definitely makes me think that approval or Condorcet voting may be the superior format when there are multiple candidates for a single office.
BladeRunner
Footballguy
To be fair, he throws that at everyone he disagrees with. It's almost like a badge of honor around here for how often it's used against people that have differing opinions from the liberals.
I congratulate you on your new award.
dschuler
Footballguy
The stock market is going to give the Republicans a much needed momentum shift heading into November. It’s a blood bath right now.
Although the Supreme Court abortion ruling had some effect, when Democrats were gaining momentum it was during the same period the stock market had appeared to have bottomed and was rising over the last four months. I actually think the market rebounding had more of an impact than the SC.
There is quite a bit of correlation to Biden’s unfavorably rating bottoming, and slowly rising (becoming more favorable) as the market was rebounding.
Now that the market is looking to make 52 week lows, I expect the odds of a Republican sweep in the house and senate to rise considerably over the coming weeks. Not personally blaming Democrats or anyone in particular here for the economy, but when you are in charge you get the glory or the blame of the outcome.
Although the Supreme Court abortion ruling had some effect, when Democrats were gaining momentum it was during the same period the stock market had appeared to have bottomed and was rising over the last four months. I actually think the market rebounding had more of an impact than the SC.
There is quite a bit of correlation to Biden’s unfavorably rating bottoming, and slowly rising (becoming more favorable) as the market was rebounding.
Now that the market is looking to make 52 week lows, I expect the odds of a Republican sweep in the house and senate to rise considerably over the coming weeks. Not personally blaming Democrats or anyone in particular here for the economy, but when you are in charge you get the glory or the blame of the outcome.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Tend to agree with this. Because our country has an inexplicable retirement scheme where many/most of us have to rely on stock market returns in order to self-fund their retirement, the stock market performance is a key component to how people view the party in charge.
AKA Trump.
Max Power
Footballguy
Plus MAGA Republicans and voters
dschuler
Footballguy
The market looked a lot better a couple weeks ago. We just hit new 52 week lows today. When blood is in the market, it always becomes the biggest concern. It’s the “trump” card to Trump if you will.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Things aren't going to improve over the next six weeks either. What's worse for the Democrats is that the Fed meets again a couple days before the election, probably looking at another 75 basis point increase in rates.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Laxalt is beginning to show a stubborn lead in Nevada polling. I never thought the Republicans could thread the needle of winning Nevada but losing the Senate. It’s a real possibility unless Ron Johnson and Walker both win.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I'm don't have a vote, but I couldn't imagine voting for Herschel Walker.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
I don't think he's going to win. Had Perdue ran for to win his seat back instead of that foolish attempt to primary Brian Kemp he likely would win that seat. They literally gave that one away. Ron Johnson though I never write off. I've done it before and he has won when not expected before. If they win NV and WI but lose GA (I'm assuming blue wins in PA, AZ, and NH, Vance win in OH) that would leave us 50/50 again with Harris being the tiebreaker.
Sleestak
Footballguy
True. True. However, October is usually a great month on the market. Wouldn't hang my hat on that, however.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
You know what happens on November 1st and 2nd? Another rate hike just to remind voters where we are a week before the election.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Yep, the average american is a simple minded dullard that lacks the capacity and willingness to think beyond what is directly in front of them and we get representation that reflects those values.
BladeRunner
Footballguy
Has there ever been a time in the entire history of the world when this wasn't true?
You have to put this in perspective - when you already have money, access and power it's always noble to think beyond yourself and for others instead. That's a luxury that money, access and power provide you. You're already taken care of and comfortable so now you can concentrate on others. So, not only are you thinking of your fellow man but you get all the virtues of having everyone see how noble you are.
However, 99% of the world does not have any of those three so for them the struggle is simply to survive and that means concentrating on what is directly in front of them, especially if they have family. Can you blame them? They just want to get to the same level that those with money, access and power are at. I can guarantee you that those people with said money, access and power certainly DID NOT think of their fellow man on their way to the top.
Genxersrule
Footballguy
What makes you so sure of this? So doctors who make $1M+ a year weren't helping their fellow man on the way up? The CEO who tithes 10% of their income isn't thinking of their fellow man?
Strange take.
timschochet
Footballguy
Obviously the stock market won’t help the Democrats but I don’t believe it will significantly hurt them either. As Nate Silver keeps pointing out, the folks who blame the Dems for our economic woes are already factored into the polling, and that number, though formidable, is not going to increase. And Democrats have a 71% chance of increasing their hold on the Senate and a 31% chance of holding the House- far better odds than a few months ago. Despite the Dow Jones, all of the numbers continue to trend in the Democrats direction.
This is largely because of the Dobbs decision. The main variable for November is the number of voters, mostly women, who will vote to protest that decision and with the intent to have the right to an abortion codified by Congress. That number may be larger than anyone thinks, large enough to overwhelm all other factors.
This is largely because of the Dobbs decision. The main variable for November is the number of voters, mostly women, who will vote to protest that decision and with the intent to have the right to an abortion codified by Congress. That number may be larger than anyone thinks, large enough to overwhelm all other factors.
Genxersrule
Footballguy
100% correct. The vast majority of people in this country don't want to turn America into Gilead.
And a lot of voters are smart enough to realize that Biden being in office for less than 6 months didn't all of sudden make inflation go nuts. It was largely the responsibility of the prior administration and the pandemic.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I don't understand what this has to do with what I wrote. I will say that doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome is stupid though.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Administration(s). Important letter you're missing.
Genxersrule
Footballguy
You're correct. It wasn't just Trump but the Fed and Obama before Trump and Biden made things worse.
BladeRunner
Footballguy
You said that people don't have the mental capacity and willingness to think beyond themselves. I disagreed and countered and explained why.
Now that doesn't mean there are those out there that just can't, but I said the priority for most people is to take care of themselves and their family first and has nothing to do with them being dullards.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
The Washington Post poll isn't a great result for Democrats heading into the election.
The poll asked what you identify as:
Democrat - 28%
Republican - 24%
Independent - 41%
Other - 5%
No opinion - 2%
The poll asked what were the most important issues (among RVs):
Economy - 85%
Inflation - 79%
Education - 77%
Crime - 67%
Abortion - 62%
Immigration - 62%
Climate Change - 51%
The poll asked who do you trust on these issues (among RVs):
Economy - 85% (Rep 54%, Dem 37%)
Inflation - 79% (Rep 54%, Dem 36%)
Education - 77% (Dem 44%, Rep 43%)
Crime - 67% (Rep 56%, Dem 34%)
Abortion - 62% (Dem 51%, Rep 31%)
Immigration - 62% (Rep 45% , Dem 44%)
Climate Change - 51% (Dem 53%, Rep 32%)
Rut roh, registered voters said they'd vote Trump over Biden 48% to 46% if they were the candidates (all adults reversed that outcome).
https://docs-cdn-prod.news-engineer...shed/62135712-e40d-4c38-9ec3-d3b9218cad1d.pdf
The Fed is almost assuredly going to raise interest rates again a week before the election which will cause the market to drop and be another reminder for voters on the economy/inflation issue. As Carville said, "It's the economy stupid".
Disclaimer: I don't put much stock in polls but I know some here do, I just threw it here for information and discussion purposes.
The poll asked what you identify as:
Democrat - 28%
Republican - 24%
Independent - 41%
Other - 5%
No opinion - 2%
The poll asked what were the most important issues (among RVs):
Economy - 85%
Inflation - 79%
Education - 77%
Crime - 67%
Abortion - 62%
Immigration - 62%
Climate Change - 51%
The poll asked who do you trust on these issues (among RVs):
Economy - 85% (Rep 54%, Dem 37%)
Inflation - 79% (Rep 54%, Dem 36%)
Education - 77% (Dem 44%, Rep 43%)
Crime - 67% (Rep 56%, Dem 34%)
Abortion - 62% (Dem 51%, Rep 31%)
Immigration - 62% (Rep 45% , Dem 44%)
Climate Change - 51% (Dem 53%, Rep 32%)
Rut roh, registered voters said they'd vote Trump over Biden 48% to 46% if they were the candidates (all adults reversed that outcome).
https://docs-cdn-prod.news-engineer...shed/62135712-e40d-4c38-9ec3-d3b9218cad1d.pdf
The Fed is almost assuredly going to raise interest rates again a week before the election which will cause the market to drop and be another reminder for voters on the economy/inflation issue. As Carville said, "It's the economy stupid".
Disclaimer: I don't put much stock in polls but I know some here do, I just threw it here for information and discussion purposes.
Mile High
Footballguy
I agree the federal government needs to cut spending and states should be able to keep more of it's own money. You can't pay for something then go without.
The Commish
Footballguy
Can't find this in the questions....see no mention of Trump OR Biden in that doc. Is it somewhere else that you saw?
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
On page 16 of 17. Question 19.
whoknew
Footballguy
This is disappointing.
Max Power
Footballguy
I think we'll see more of this as we get closer to midterms. They really have to remind the base to come out in force and seeing poor results will motivate people.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
And while Dobbs has moved polls it seems as the movement has stopped and seems to be evening out and in some cases moving back. It may save JD Vance who has run an awful campaign in Ohio and Laxalt appears to have a great chance in NV, which is a hard state to poll. Ron Johnson also seems to be moving up in WI. It’s looking like it could be 50/50 again. The NH primary really hurt the Rs chances late just as PA did earlier.
dkp993
Footballguy
IMO we need a split Congress for a while. Let the extremism on either side stay ineffective while forcing the middle to negotiate again. Hopefully in the next few years a true Unifier/Dealmaker comes out of one of the parties and starts to drag the country forward again. Either side holding power is bad for the country at this point.
whoknew
Footballguy
This sounds good but I'm a little skeptical we are even at a point where negotiation can happen. Our politics are so broken I'm not sure we can have Tip O'Neill and President Reagan having an after hours beer with each other anymore.
dkp993
Footballguy
Oh, I agree. That’s why I think there needs to be a period of stagnation. we need time for this lunacy on either side to cool down.
Bottomfeeder Sports
Footballguy
While I don't think there is anything factually wrong with what you wrote here, I think this is historically a terribly unreliable expectation. Kind of like the expectation in 2016 that women everywhere in America would be dressed in white. My feelings won't be hurt any though if my pessimism proves wrong.
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