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Insoxicated
First off... PLEASE keep politics OUT of this thread.
This Is NOT about blaming _________ for not doing _______. We have plenty of slap-fighting in the other forum. Take it there. I'd like to keep this thread on the topic of what the threat is, how viable it is, and what the potential results/fallout might be from such an attack.
On October 12 (last thursday) "DR. WILLIAM R. GRAHAM, CHAIRMAN DR. PETER VINCENT PRY, CHIEF OF STAFF" from the "COMMISSION TO ASSESS THE THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES FROM ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE (EMP) ATTACK" gave a presentation to the US House Committee on Homeland Security.
This is the report in full straight from the source (not Fox News or MSNBC) >
I'm going to attempt to summarize this report raw quotes in an attempt walk you guys through the issue at hand.
For those looking for a TLDR summary:
What is a Super EMP Weapon and what does it do?
We know about their ICBM ambitions and rapid progress... but let's look at other options.
A bit more info about the satellite threat:
North Korean comments on nuclear attacks against the US:
Historical Tests & Results of EMP weapons by the US and Russia (and possible evidence that NK is walking down that road):
OKAY:
• So we know what EMP Superweapon is.
• We know NK has them, and they are aggressively looking at how to deploy them.
• We know the impact they have had on electronic/power systems in the past.
• We have heard reports that modern electronics are FAR more suceptible to these attacks than during those tests.
Let's look at historical results of power outages from single points of failure:
The issue is an EMP attack, reportedly, would introduce multiple points of failure:
This Is NOT about blaming _________ for not doing _______. We have plenty of slap-fighting in the other forum. Take it there. I'd like to keep this thread on the topic of what the threat is, how viable it is, and what the potential results/fallout might be from such an attack.
On October 12 (last thursday) "DR. WILLIAM R. GRAHAM, CHAIRMAN DR. PETER VINCENT PRY, CHIEF OF STAFF" from the "COMMISSION TO ASSESS THE THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES FROM ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE (EMP) ATTACK" gave a presentation to the US House Committee on Homeland Security.
This is the report in full straight from the source (not Fox News or MSNBC) >
I'm going to attempt to summarize this report raw quotes in an attempt walk you guys through the issue at hand.
For those looking for a TLDR summary:
Evidence of NK's interest in, and possession of, a Super-EMP weapon:TLDR (based on my understanding from the report and other reading):
• Russia had a SuperEMP program during the cold war that explored using satellite-deployed SuperEMP warheads to knock out the US Power Grid utilizing a south-pole route that bypasses our missile defense systems
• Russia "accidentally" leaked nuke/ICBM plans to NK. Russian and Chinese Nuke scientists have been working in NK.
• NK's Nuke/ICBM program has rapidly accelerated recently, possibly due to leaked plans and scientist assistance
• NK has shown SuperEMP capability with recent Hydrogen bomb test.
• NK has shown some degree of ICBM capability
• NK has openly threatened the US with nuclear attack.
• NK has recently launched satellites capable of carrying SuperEMP payload that follow similar trajectory outlined in the Russian cold war plans.
• NK reportedly went to great lengths to conceal the cargo of those satellites from visiting US Scientists.
• EMP tests by the US and Russia have provided proof of concept behind EMP attacks having significant to devastating impact on electrical systems
• Modern equipment and systems are reportedly much more susceptible to EMP attack
• Modern power grids have recently been shown to be able to be brought down by single points of failure to significant effect.
• EMP attack would likely introduce many points of failure and likely incapacitate the systems on a massive scale for extended periods.
Notes on rapid advances of NK's Nuclear capability here:"[In Sept 2017] North Korea detonated an H-Bomb that it plausibly describes as capable of “super-powerful EMP” attack and released a technical report “The EMP Might of Nuclear Weapons” accurately describing what Russia and China call a “Super-EMP” weapon."
How has NK advanced their Nuke/EMP program far more rapidly than we expected?--Just six months ago, most experts thought North Korea’s nuclear arsenal was primitive, some academics claiming it had as few as 6 A-Bombs. Now the intelligence community reportedly estimates North Korea has 60 nuclear weapons.
--Just six months ago, most experts thought North Korea’s ICBMs were fake, or if real could not strike the U.S. mainland. Now the intelligence community reportedly estimates North Korea’s ICBMs can strike Denver and Chicago, and perhaps the entire United States.
--Just six months ago, most experts thought North Korea was many years away from an HBomb. Now it appears North Korea has H-Bombs comparable to sophisticated U.S. two-stage thermonuclear weapons.
--Just six months ago, most experts claimed North Korean ICBMs could not miniaturize an ABomb or design a reentry vehicle for missile delivery. Now the intelligence community reportedly assesses North Korea has miniaturized nuclear weapons, and has developed reentry vehicles for missile delivery, including by ICBMs that can strike the U.S.
"In 2004, two Russian generals, both EMP experts, warned the EMP Commission that the design for Russia’s Super-EMP warhead, capable of generating high intensity EMP fields over 100,000 volts per meter, was “accidentally” transferred to North Korea. They also said that due to “brain drain,” Russian scientists were in North Korea, as were Chinese and Pakistani scientists according to the Russians, helping with the North’s missile and nuclear weapon programs. In 2009, South Korean military intelligence told their press that Russian scientists are in North Korea helping develop an EMP nuclear weapon. In 2013, a Chinese military commentator stated North Korea has Super-EMP nuclear weapons."
What is a Super EMP Weapon and what does it do?
How could NK Deliver an EMP Weapon over US Soil?"Super-EMP weapons are low-yield and designed to produce not a big kinetic explosion, but rather a high level of gamma rays, which generates the high-frequency E1 EMP that is most damaging to the broadest range of electronics."
"EMP attack does not require an accurate guidance system because the area of effect, having a radius of hundreds or thousands of kilometers, is so large. No reentry vehicle is needed because the warhead is detonated at high altitude, above the atmosphere. Missile reliability matters little because only one missile has to work to make an EMP attack against an entire nation."
We know about their ICBM ambitions and rapid progress... but let's look at other options.
"North Korea could make an EMP attack against the United States by launching a short-range missile off a freighter or submarine or by lofting a warhead to 30 kilometers burst height by balloon."
"A Super-EMP weapon could be relatively small and lightweight, and could fit inside North Korea’s Kwangmyongsong-3 (KMS-3) and Kwangmyongsong-4 (KMS-4) satellites. These two satellites presently orbit over the United States, and over every other nation on Earth-- demonstrating, or posing, a potential EMP threat against the entire world."
A bit more info about the satellite threat:
North Korea’s KMS-3 and KMS-4 satellites were launched to the south on polar trajectories and passed over the United States on their first orbit. Pyongyang launched KMS-4 on February 7, 2017, shortly after its fourth illegal nuclear test on January 6, that began the present protracted nuclear crisis with North Korea.
The south polar trajectory of KMS-3 and KMS-4 evades U.S. Ballistic Missile Early Warning Radars and National Missile Defenses, resembling a Russian secret weapon developed during the Cold War, called the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) that would have used a nuclear-armed satellite to make a surprise EMP attack on the United States.
(My note: Remember from above that Russian plans and scientists have made their way to NK)
The south polar trajectory of KMS-3 and KMS-4 evades U.S. Ballistic Missile Early Warning Radars and National Missile Defenses, resembling a Russian secret weapon developed during the Cold War, called the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) that would have used a nuclear-armed satellite to make a surprise EMP attack on the United States.
(My note: Remember from above that Russian plans and scientists have made their way to NK)
North Korean comments on nuclear attacks against the US:
Kim Jong-Un has threatened to reduce the United States to “ashes” with “nuclear thunderbolts” and threatened to retaliate for U.S. diplomatic and military pressure by “ordering officials and scientists to complete preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible”
Historical Tests & Results of EMP weapons by the US and Russia (and possible evidence that NK is walking down that road):
• STARFISH PRIME: USA 1962: During the 1962 STARFISH PRIME high-altitude nuclear test... the EMP knocked-out 36 strings of street lights, caused a telecommunications microwave relay station to fail, burned out HF (High-Frequency) radio links (used for long-distance communications), set off burglar alarms, and caused other damage..[1300km away] The Hawaiian Islands did not experience a catastrophic protracted blackout because they were on the far edge of the EMP field contour, where effects are weakest; are surrounded by an ocean, which mitigates EMP effects; and were still in an age dominated by vacuum tube electronics.
• KAZAKHSTAN TESTS: RUSSIA 1961-62: Russia in 1961-62 also conducted a series of high-altitude nuclear bursts to test EMP effects over Kazakhstan, an industrialized area nearly as large as Western Europe.14 That test destroyed the Kazakh electric grid.15 Moreover, modern electronics, in part because they are designed to operate at much lower voltages, are much more vulnerable to EMP than the electronics of 1962 exposed to STARFISH PRIME and the Kazakh nuclear tests. A similar EMP event over the U.S. today would be an existential threat.1
• NORTH KOREAN TESTS: NK 2017: (NOTE: This wasn't specifically an EMP test) The North Korean missile test on April 29, 2017, which apparently detonated at an altitude of 72 kilometers, the optimum height-of-burst for EMP attack by a 10 KT warhead, would create a potentially damaging EMP field spanning, not the academic’s miscalculated 20 kilometers radius, but to about 930 kilometers radius [Kilometers Radius = 110 (Kilometers Burst Height to the 0.5 Power)].
• NOTE: A report to Senate Subcommittee in 2014 indicated that: "Over 50 years of testing by EMP simulators, still ongoing, including by the Congressional EMP Commission (2001-2008) that proved modern electronics are over 1 million times more vulnerable to EMP than the electronics of 1962.
OKAY:
• So we know what EMP Superweapon is.
• We know NK has them, and they are aggressively looking at how to deploy them.
• We know the impact they have had on electronic/power systems in the past.
• We have heard reports that modern electronics are FAR more suceptible to these attacks than during those tests.
Let's look at historical results of power outages from single points of failure:
--The Great Northeast Blackout of 2003--that put 50 million people in the dark for a day, contributed to at least 11 deaths, and cost an estimated $6 billion—originated from a single failure point when a powerline contacted a tree branch, damaging less than 0.0000001 (0.00001%) of the system.
--The New York City Blackout of 1977, that resulted in the arrest of 4,500 looters and injury of 550 police officers, was caused by a lightning strike on a substation that tripped two circuit breakers.
--The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965, that effected 30 million people, happened because a protective relay on a transmission line was improperly set.
--India’s nationwide blackout of July 30-31, 2012—the largest blackout in history, effecting 670 million people, 9% of the world population—was caused by overload of a single high-voltage powerline.
--India’s blackout of January 2, 2001—effecting 226 million people—was caused by equipment failure at the Uttar Pradesh substation.
--Indonesia’s blackout of August 18, 2005—effecting 100 million people—was caused by overload of a high-voltage powerline.
--Brazil’s blackout of March 11, 1999—effecting 97 million people—was caused by a lightning strike on an EHV transformer substation.
--Italy’s blackout of September 28, 2003—effecting 55 million people—was caused by overload of two high-voltage powerlines.
--Germany, France, Italy, and Spain experienced partial blackouts on November 4, 2006— effecting 10-15 million people—from accidental shutdown of a high-voltage powerline.
--The San Francisco blackout in April 2017 was caused by the failure of a single high voltage breaker.
--The New York City Blackout of 1977, that resulted in the arrest of 4,500 looters and injury of 550 police officers, was caused by a lightning strike on a substation that tripped two circuit breakers.
--The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965, that effected 30 million people, happened because a protective relay on a transmission line was improperly set.
--India’s nationwide blackout of July 30-31, 2012—the largest blackout in history, effecting 670 million people, 9% of the world population—was caused by overload of a single high-voltage powerline.
--India’s blackout of January 2, 2001—effecting 226 million people—was caused by equipment failure at the Uttar Pradesh substation.
--Indonesia’s blackout of August 18, 2005—effecting 100 million people—was caused by overload of a high-voltage powerline.
--Brazil’s blackout of March 11, 1999—effecting 97 million people—was caused by a lightning strike on an EHV transformer substation.
--Italy’s blackout of September 28, 2003—effecting 55 million people—was caused by overload of two high-voltage powerlines.
--Germany, France, Italy, and Spain experienced partial blackouts on November 4, 2006— effecting 10-15 million people—from accidental shutdown of a high-voltage powerline.
--The San Francisco blackout in April 2017 was caused by the failure of a single high voltage breaker.
The issue is an EMP attack, reportedly, would introduce multiple points of failure:
"In the event of a nuclear EMP attack on the United States, a widespread protracted blackout is inevitable. This commonsense assessment is also supported by the nation’s best computer modeling:
--Modeling by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reportedly assesses that a terrorist attack that destroys just 9 of 2,000 EHV transformers--merely 0.0045 (0.45%) of all EHV transformers in the U.S. national electric grid--would be catastrophic damage, causing a protracted nationwide blackout.
--Modeling by the Congressional EMP Commission assesses that a terrorist nuclear EMP attack, using a primitive 10-kiloton nuclear weapon, could destroy dozens of EHV transformers, thousands of SCADAS and electronic systems, causing catastrophic collapse and protracted blackout of the U.S. Eastern Grid, putting at risk the lives of millions.27
--Modeling by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reportedly assesses that a terrorist attack that destroys just 9 of 2,000 EHV transformers--merely 0.0045 (0.45%) of all EHV transformers in the U.S. national electric grid--would be catastrophic damage, causing a protracted nationwide blackout.
--Modeling by the Congressional EMP Commission assesses that a terrorist nuclear EMP attack, using a primitive 10-kiloton nuclear weapon, could destroy dozens of EHV transformers, thousands of SCADAS and electronic systems, causing catastrophic collapse and protracted blackout of the U.S. Eastern Grid, putting at risk the lives of millions.27
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