Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (2 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Nobody (never say never I guess), well nobody with sense, is trading Cook for Jones and Mitchell.  

Carter and Monty with the pick would get peoples attention, but if they were competing still probably not.

I mean it shouldn’t, but perception is reality.

If I’m an AJones/Mitchell owner with a stacked competing team, I am probably nervous about AJones role/future, and Mitchell’s health/Niners willingness to put whomever in there the second Mitchell is dinged up. 

That’s one way trade calcs fail - risk isn’t factored in, and the intrinsic value of a stud like Cook winning you your league should he stay healthy is legitimate. Same with the Monty/Carter side. Some are down on Carter, despite what he showed in 2021, and I know folks question the prowess of the Chicago offense with Fields. Personally I think those concerns are lesser to the Jones/Mitchell package’s risks. 

So there are absolutely scenarios where I believe both of those deals would be accepted, even if imbalanced on paper.

There are only so many league-winning players. If your trade partner believes Cook is one of them, they might go for it even if it’s an overpay.

That said, the Carter/Monty side shouldn’t need the 2nd round pick. It’s already a bit of an overpay. 

And like I said, if I’m the Cook owner, I’m taking either of those deals without hesitation & using those players to make other moves, or as depth for my team. 

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

What sort of deal would it take to move from 1.02 to 1.01?

I've offered a 3rd and 4th along with the 1.02, no response yet. Was thinking someone like Tyler Boyd and the 1.02. 

 

[Shrugs]

What sort of deal would it take to move from 1.02 to 1.01?

I've offered a 3rd and 4th along with the 1.02, no response yet. Was thinking someone like Tyler Boyd and the 1.02. 

Depends how much someone wants one particular player. If someone really wants Hall, or whomever is looking like 1.01 after the draft, those picks or Boyd aren’t guys likely to make an impact for them so they’re not going to make a deal. Picks wise, it would probably be something like a mid-22 2nd or a 23 2nd.

 

[Boston]

What sort of deal would it take to move from 1.02 to 1.01?

I've offered a 3rd and 4th along with the 1.02, no response yet. Was thinking someone like Tyler Boyd and the 1.02. 

Agree with Shrugs that a lot depends on whether the 1.1 Owner is zeroed in on one player or likes multiple players...due to that you can have a pretty big range of what it may take to move up...IMO someone like Boyd or picks in the 3rd or 4th range do nothing for me...if I own 1.1 and open to moving that pick than I would look at offers outside of just the 1.2 and I feel comfortable saying I can do far better than Boyd or those picks...as far as your deal goes I would want another quality young player or multiple picks that have at least a high #2 in it...outside of that I would just sit tight until draft day than maybe do something with you and the 1.2 (I assuming I have two players at equal value ) while I am on the clock and 100% sure nothing better comes along.

 

[tangfoot]

With the news of Cooper's trade to the Browns, all of his remaining fantasy value has been flushed down the terlet.

You weren't getting any rookie 1st round pick for him prior to this news, and if you want to receive anything at all, I can't imagine anyone paying more than a mid-2nd now.

If you're holding, why?  WR3/Bye week fill-in is the best you can hope for.

 

[Snorkelson]

What sort of deal would it take to move from 1.02 to 1.01?

I've offered a 3rd and 4th along with the 1.02, no response yet. Was thinking someone like Tyler Boyd and the 1.02. 

I have 1.01 in a league, and I’d probably just stay put or,  as @Boston said, poke 1.03/1.04 and see what I can get from them. A couple late round rookie picks or a bye week fill in like Boyd don’t motivate me to move (all 3 together doesn’t even interest me). Don’t think “it should only cost X to move one spot”, think “I want that pick before someone else leapfrogs me” or “I want to motivate them to trade.”

Maybe if you offered 1.02/2.02 for 1.01/3.01 you make them think about it, and if you have to add a 3rd from there don’t let it be a dealbreaker. 

 

[rockaction]

What sort of deal would it take to move from 1.02 to 1.01?

I've offered a 3rd and 4th along with the 1.02, no response yet. Was thinking someone like Tyler Boyd and the 1.02. 

That’s not enough, honestly. Not even a 1.02/2.02 would be enough if I held 1.01 because imo the tier break is so significant this year. 2.02 is a dart throw, and the tier break is wide enough where you’re going to need something better than WR5 or 6 to go along with your picks. 

 

[tangfoot]

What sort of deal would it take to move from 1.02 to 1.01?

I've offered a 3rd and 4th along with the 1.02, no response yet. Was thinking someone like Tyler Boyd and the 1.02. 

This is the type of season where I would be looking to move back from 1.02 for multiple later picks in the 1st round.  The cost to trade up to 1.01 is too high and I don't think Hall is a bonafide stud anyway.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

This is the type of season where I would be looking to move back from 1.02 for multiple later picks in the 1st round.  The cost to trade up to 1.01 is too high and I don't think Hall is a bonafide stud anyway.

See, I've got the 1.02, 1.06, 1.09 already. I'm not really all that enamoured by anyone outside of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.

I've offered the 6 and 9 for the 1 and a 23 2nd from a bad team, as well as that initial offer. They seem like they might be set on Hall as well though. 

It's a tough one. I do think Hall looks tremendous personally but if he and Walker get similar landing spots there probably isn't that much in it. 

Possibly coveting a guy for too long is distorting my view a little. 

 

[tangfoot]

See, I've got the 1.02, 1.06, 1.09 already. I'm not really all that enamoured by anyone outside of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.

I've offered the 6 and 9 for the 1 and a 23 2nd from a bad team, as well as that initial offer. They seem like they might be set on Hall as well though. 

It's a tough one. I do think Hall looks tremendous personally but if he and Walker get similar landing spots there probably isn't that much in it. 

Possibly coveting a guy for too long is distorting my view a little. 

Based on your assets, 1.02/1.06 would he what I want for 1.01 if I’m holding it. MAYBE accept 1.02/1.09 if you counter. 

Honestly, this is not the year to fall in love. I would still look to move 1.02 for two more 1sts and take the shotgun approach and hope you get that Michael Thomas lottery ticket rather than a “sure thing” like Hall or Wilson

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Based on your assets, 1.02/1.06 would he what I want for 1.01 if I’m holding it. MAYBE accept 1.02/1.09 if you counter. 

Honestly, this is not the year to fall in love. I would still look to move 1.02 for two more 1sts and take the shotgun approach and hope you get that Michael Thomas lottery ticket rather than a “sure thing” like Hall or Wilson

Also worth noting his team is woeful and mine is quite good. He barely has enough decent players to fill out his starting lineup so he could definitely do with more picks. 

It'll work out fine either way I guess. 

 

[osiriskid]

What’s Marcus Mariotas super flex value? I would trade a future late second for him but would want more than a second to deal him. Just curious what others thoughts are on him. 

 

[Penguin]

What’s Marcus Mariotas super flex value? I would trade a future late second for him but would want more than a second to deal him. Just curious what others thoughts are on him. 

Ugh, a mid to late 3rd. That's where most charts have him at in SF

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What’s Marcus Mariotas super flex value? I would trade a future late second for him but would want more than a second to deal him. Just curious what others thoughts are on him. 

Right now? Maybe a 2022 3rd. 

If he goes somewhere with a chance to start, like SF or CAR? Value will jump significantly. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What’s Marcus Mariotas super flex value? I would trade a future late second for him but would want more than a second to deal him. Just curious what others thoughts are on him. 

Ok, since I literally just dealt for him, I can say with confidence his value is exactly 1 Tyler Huntley, so long as you’re dealing with the LJax owner. 
 

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

My offers for the 1.01 ended up looking like this.

1.02 and 23 2nd (probably mid)

1.06, 1.09 and 2022 late 3rd.

All rejected and a message sent basically asking me if I was serious and there wasn't even a starting point place for negotiation there.

So yeah. 

 

[ghostguy123]

My offers for the 1.01 ended up looking like this.

1.02 and 23 2nd (probably mid)

1.06, 1.09 and 2022 late 3rd.

All rejected and a message sent basically asking me if I was serious and there wasn't even a starting point place for negotiation there.

So yeah. 

I think some of the threads on this forum provide a bunch of outlier trades that arent realistic in most of the leagues we play in.

We see a trade that went through in some other league on here, try it in our league, and get laughed at.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

I think some of the threads on this forum provide a bunch of outlier trades that arent realistic in most of the leagues we play in.

We see a trade that went through in some other league on here, try it in our league, and get laughed at.

There is that, or a guy who earned the 1.01 not quite grasping value perhaps.

 

[tangfoot]

My offers for the 1.01 ended up looking like this.

1.02 and 23 2nd (probably mid)

1.06, 1.09 and 2022 late 3rd.

All rejected and a message sent basically asking me if I was serious and there wasn't even a starting point place for negotiation there.

So yeah. 

None of those are enticing offers.  Sorry, but I explained my reasoning last week.

 

[Boston]

My offers for the 1.01 ended up looking like this.

1.02 and 23 2nd (probably mid)

1.06, 1.09 and 2022 late 3rd.

All rejected and a message sent basically asking me if I was serious and there wasn't even a starting point place for negotiation there.

So yeah. 

None of those are offers I would do pre-draft...this is a little bit of an an odd draft and I would rather wait to see where players land before taking an offer involving other draft picks unless it really blows me away.

 

[ghostguy123]

There is that, or a guy who earned the 1.01 not quite grasping value perhaps.

The guy with 1.01 isnt the guy with the poor valuations here.

At least the offer of picks 6 an 9 was realistic

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

The guy with 1.01 isnt the guy with the poor valuations here.

At least the offer of picks 6 an 9 was realistic

Yeah I don't think I've offered enough, but the suggestion there isn't even a starting point for negotiations seems a bit rich.

I'm not really sure what he's expecting if based on what I've offered he can't even produce a reasonable counter.

 

[ghostguy123]

Yeah I don't think I've offered enough, but the suggestion there isn't even a starting point for negotiations seems a bit rich.

I'm not really sure what he's expecting if based on what I've offered he can't even produce a reasonable counter.

Ever consider he doesnt want to trade the pick??  Right now there is a clear #1 guy then a handful of guys who could be #2.  

Why would he want to move down for a ham sandwich?

So what is he expecting??  He is probably expecting to draft a player at #1 in his rookie draft unless someone makes him an offer that makes sense for him to accept.  

Perhaps offer picks 2 and 9 plus that future 2nd or 3rd

 

[jm192]

Yeah I don't think I've offered enough, but the suggestion there isn't even a starting point for negotiations seems a bit rich.

I'm not really sure what he's expecting if based on what I've offered he can't even produce a reasonable counter.

I don't think it's egregious.  Depending on how much I liked guys at the top, there are times I'd probably take something like this.  

I think sometimes rebuilding teams see the 1.01 as the golden ticket and are only moving it for a big overpay.  

I rarely try to go after a high 1st for this reason.  Most of the discussions are fruitless.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Yeah I don't think I've offered enough, but the suggestion there isn't even a starting point for negotiations seems a bit rich.

I'm not really sure what he's expecting if based on what I've offered he can't even produce a reasonable counter.

They’re definitely starting points, but one thing to consider: it’s  a weird draft. there’s basically 1 RB this year worthy if 1.01 - Hall is the only dude on Devy rankings that stacks up with the 2023 RBs. So even though I see the offers as not terrible, if your trade partner wants Hall, no offer is going to get it done.

And if they’re not countering for more, that’s probably your answer.

I’d suggest offering those packages with a RB. Obviously you’re also targeting Hall - do you have a Michael Carter type you can kick in? 

 

[ghostguy123]

If this was last years draft I would take pick 2 and a future 2nd.  Not this year at all

 

[tangfoot]

I think sometimes rebuilding teams see the 1.01 as the golden ticket and are only moving it for a big overpay. 

The odds that Hall becomes a 1st round dynasty startup RB is worth a LOT in the future.  I don't blame him for not wanting to give up that chance for some magic beans (literally anyone else in the 2022 class).

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

I asked him if the 2, 9 and future 2nd or the current 3rd would get it done and he said no and didn't offer a counter either.

Seems pretty clear that he just wants to take the player and isn't really interested in shifting down to get more picks. I've also got multiple 1sts in 23 and thought maybe he'd ask for one of them to be thrown in somewhere, but nothing. 

I'll just take my own shots with the picks I've got I think. Not gonna chase it further. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The odds that Hall becomes a 1st round dynasty startup RB is worth a LOT in the future.  I don't blame him for not wanting to give up that chance for some magic beans (literally anyone else in the 2022 class).

Yeah - it’s just one of those drafts. 

Hall >>>>> everyone else.

If the offer were 1.02 and a 2023 1st I’d be listening were I the 1.01 guy. But that’s a sizable package. 

 

[jm192]

The odds that Hall becomes a 1st round dynasty startup RB is worth a LOT in the future.  I don't blame him for not wanting to give up that chance for some magic beans (literally anyone else in the 2022 class).

Sure.  

I don't blame the 1.01 owner for not wanting to trade it either.  

The statement you quoted is a generalization, not so much a criticism of the 1.01 owner in the discussion.  I think that the 1.01 always comes with a premium in dynasty trades.  And I was saying that's why I don't trade for it.

I disagree that EVERYTHING else in the 2022 class is a "ham sandwich" or "Magic beans" as some of you have put it.  But I probably wouldn't give up Hall for 6 and 9 this year either.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I've also got multiple 1sts in 23 and thought maybe he'd ask for one of them to be thrown in somewhere, but nothing. 

I'll just take my own shots with the picks I've got I think. Not gonna chase it further. 

We cross-posted but IMO this is the answer.

i often don’t get counters. After 3-4 days I’ll throw out a counter of my own to sweeten the deal.  Some managers aren’t comfortable countering.

If you offer 1.02 & a 2023 1st maybe you get it done.

if you really want Hall, you should throw that out there.

Either way you’ll have a definitive response at that point. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I disagree that EVERYTHING else in the 2022 class is a "ham sandwich" or "Magic beans" as some of you have put it.  But I probably wouldn't give up Hall for 6 and 9 this year either.  

2022 1.06 is likely to be a solid player.

2022 1.09 is much more of a crap shoot, even in SF. There just aren’t many QBs that’ll go in the top 8.

it’s not all trash, but tier 1 starts and ends with Hall. 

 

[Buckna]

Yeah - it’s just one of those drafts. 

Hall >>>>> everyone else.

If the offer were 1.02 and a 2023 1st I’d be listening were I the 1.01 guy. But that’s a sizable package. 

This would be way too much IMO if the buyer earned the 1.02. Now if the buyer had traded into the 1.02 and I thought that 23 1st would be mid-late I could definitely see that.

 

[tangfoot]

I disagree that EVERYTHING else in the 2022 class is a "ham sandwich" or "Magic beans" as some of you have put it.  But I probably wouldn't give up Hall for 6 and 9 this year either.  

Would you agree that Hall is the only player at this stage with a decent chance of becoming a 1st round dynasty asset?

I see a lot of WR2s and RB3s and garbage QBs, but I am also going to wait and see how the NFL values them.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This would be way too much IMO if the buyer earned the 1.02. Now if the buyer had traded into the 1.02 and I thought that 23 1st would be mid-late I could definitely see that.

I’m just sayin - if the 1.02 & 2023 2nd isn’t getting it done, up the offer.

If you’re unwilling to up the offer, you don’t want Hall more than your trade partner wants Hall. 

Personally I wouldn’t pay that. I’d take the best WR at 1.02 (or maybe Spiller, depending on landing spot / how a healthy workout looks).  

So yeah - totally agree it’s an overpay. Which is exactly what it’s going to take to pry that 1.01 this year, because there’s a big drop-off to 1.02. 

Too often in trades I see folks expressing dismay that their fair offer was rejected. Gotta have perspective of the team you’re trying to trade with. Why would team 1.01 (who likely earned it) want to give up Hall for less than 1.02 and a future 1st? 

 

[jm192]

Would you agree that Hall is the only player at this stage with a decent chance of becoming a 1st round dynasty asset?

I see a lot of WR2s and RB3s and garbage QBs, but I am also going to wait and see how the NFL values them.

Are we defining it such that you're either a 1st round pick in start-ups or "magic beans?"  There's no in between?  

I think there are a handful good young receivers that will be valuable dynasty assets for years.  

I think Spiller and Walker both could wind up as RB2's for fantasy--more likely to be 3's?  Maybe.  But I think they'll get a shot starting out.  

I agree with the idea that Hall is in a different tier.  But I don't agree that the tiers are "great dynasty asset" and "magic beans."  That seems absurd.  

 

[tangfoot]

I agree with the idea that Hall is in a different tier.  But I don't agree that the tiers are "great dynasty asset" and "magic beans."  That seems absurd. 

For someone holding an existing "great dynasty asset" (i.e., JT, Harris, Jefferson, Chase), how many 2022 1st round picks would you need to get in return in order to trade one of them away?  We are working under the assumption that anything from 1.02-1.12 is available, but not 1.01.

Put yourself in the position of being the owner of one of the players I mentioned above.  Maybe you do already own one or more of them.  Which of them are you moving for a pair of 2022 1st rounders?  Three 1sts?  4? 

Magic beans.

 

[Dacomish]

Man I'm considering offering 1.03 and 1.05 for 1.01 in non-SF. Can't trade future picks in our league so I may try to go all in on Hall...

 

[ghostguy123]

Man I'm considering offering 1.03 and 1.05 for 1.01 in non-SF. Can't trade future picks in our league so I may try to go all in on Hall...

I did trade away pick 1 after the combine for a very similar deal.

I trades picks 1 and 11 for picks 3 and 5.   

Obviously if I had pick 1 I would accept your offer there.

Ask for more in return from him

 

[Gally]

Put yourself in the position of being the owner of one of the players I mentioned above.  Maybe you do already own one or more of them.  Which of them are you moving for a pair of 2022 1st rounders?  Three 1sts?  4? 

Magic beans.

The big difference in using this is a comparison is that you already know that the player (JT, Chase, Jefferson, etc) is a franchise guy in the NFL and performing.  The 1.01 still has some risk that the player won't ever reach that status.  So I understand what you are saying but the known, proven player should be more costly than the 1.01 that has some risk of not ending up like the players mentioned.  

 

[jm192]

For someone holding an existing "great dynasty asset" (i.e., JT, Harris, Jefferson, Chase), how many 2022 1st round picks would you need to get in return in order to trade one of them away?  We are working under the assumption that anything from 1.02-1.12 is available, but not 1.01.

Put yourself in the position of being the owner of one of the players I mentioned above.  Maybe you do already own one or more of them.  Which of them are you moving for a pair of 2022 1st rounders?  Three 1sts?  4? 

Magic beans.

Dude.

I don't know if you're reading any of my posts.  

I said the first time you engaged me that I would NOT give up Hall for 1.06 and 1.09.  I said that.  I said it in subsequent posts.  I would not make that trade.  I've agreed with that point I believe 3 times now.  And yet you're still arguing it.  

I contested the idea that everyone else in the class was "magic beans."  I stand by that.  You can call them magic beans all you want.  You're wrong.  But I'm not going to keep saying "You're right, I would not trade Breece Hall for 1.06 and 1.09."  I've said it.  You keep not reading it.  Let's move on.

 

[Gally]

So yeah - totally agree it’s an overpay. Which is exactly what it’s going to take to pry that 1.01 this year, because there’s a big drop-off to 1.02. 

This is the case every year.  People that have the 1.01 will always want an overpay to give up that "hope" and first pick.  It doesn't really matter that there is a perceived big drop off to #2.   That may just make the pick untouchable if the guy owning the 1.01 thinks it is that big of a drop.  

 

[tangfoot]

The big difference in using this is a comparison is that you already know that the player (JT, Chase, Jefferson, etc) is a franchise guy in the NFL and performing.  The 1.01 still has some risk that the player won't ever reach that status.  So I understand what you are saying but the known, proven player should be more costly than the 1.01 that has some risk of not ending up like the players mentioned.  

Absolutely.  The point I'm making is that for the people who hold 1.01 in this year's draft, that's their expectation/hope of what Hall will become.

I don't see anyone else in this class with the potential to reach that stratosphere today, but surely there will be some rando who comes from nowhere and is a superstar.  The 1.01 owner needs to be paid handsomely to give up the best chance at a sure thing.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

1.02 and 23 1st (from any team) is too steep for me personally. 

I didn't think it'd be quite so difficult to trade for the 1 at this stage given we don't know landing spots or the draft capital invested in the players but I've never actually tried to trade for it before so clearly a learning experience. 

Some of these players other than Hall are going to look a lot more appealing at 2 after the NFL draft. And if someone like Walker ends up in a prime spot before Hall does, it certainly wont seem quite so cut and dry. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Story time: I dealt my 2022 1st & 2nd for Pittman & a couple of picks (including a 2023 1st) back in 2020.

At the time I was “going for it” and should have been a 10+ win team.

then early last season I decided to go all in on a rebuild, and that owner was chirping all year about getting the 1.01. Somehow I ended up miraculously winning 4 games after dealing away all my assets and the pick ended up 1.02

Needless to say, that owner has super sad feels about it now.  

 

[barackdhouse]

I think some of the threads on this forum provide a bunch of outlier trades that arent realistic in most of the leagues we play in.

We see a trade that went through in some other league on here, try it in our league, and get laughed at.

To be fair, most of the trades that get laughed at are ones that other league members laugh at as well. I have heard this criticism towards some of my trades and I'm like, "so why do I consistently pull these off in *different* $250 leagues?"

Because there is always a sucker and if you don't know who it is...

I'm mostly kidding, in our FFPC sharkpool league it is tight AF. No suckers and very few trades.

To your point I do think there is an inherent bias on this board in the sense that I think most posters only post trades that are either really big or that are outliers in some way. I don't post all the vanilla ones I come across or am involved in. I think others probably skip those as well. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

To your point I do think there is an inherent bias on this board in the sense that I think most posters only post trades that are either really big

lmao - I just posted a Tyler Huntley for Marcus Mariota deal. 

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Who has more value - Deshaun Watson or Trey Lance?  

What would it take to get either of these guys?  Top __ RB?   Top __ WR?  

Say you are owning both these guys, who do you value more?  You need to improve at RB badly and your WR could use some depth.  What would it take?

 

[IHEARTFF]

Who has more value - Deshaun Watson or Trey Lance?  

What would it take to get either of these guys?  Top __ RB?   Top __ WR?  

Say you are owning both these guys, who do you value more?  You need to improve at RB badly and your WR could use some depth.  What would it take?

I don't own either, but I think I would be in the minority and prefer Lance

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This is the case every year.  People that have the 1.01 will always want an overpay to give up that "hope" and first pick.  It doesn't really matter that there is a perceived big drop off to #2.   That may just make the pick untouchable if the guy owning the 1.01 thinks it is that big of a drop.  

Agree, but I suspect it’s bigger in 2022 than most other years since it’s (perceived as) a weak QB class, no elite TE, and only 1 RB really showed out at the combine.