Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Is this a rebuild for you? Curious if you'd still have made the trade if the offer was 1.8 and 1.11?
I'm trying to gauge his value myself.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
That'd be a little less appealing. I like picks 1-8. After that it's a little wonky. In the end, though, I'd probably still take it.
rockaction
Footballguy
Anyone have a gauge on Curtis Samuel's value?
Just featured in Reception Perception by Matt Harmon (which is free for two weeks, so go get reading!)
Offered Henry Ruggs plus 2.11 for him to sweeten the deal. Wondering what people's take on it is.
This was all I needed to make the offer, but I'm wondering what others think in more general terms so that it's not an AC Forum
https://receptionperception.com/curtis-samuel-2020-player-profile/
Just featured in Reception Perception by Matt Harmon (which is free for two weeks, so go get reading!)
Offered Henry Ruggs plus 2.11 for him to sweeten the deal. Wondering what people's take on it is.
This was all I needed to make the offer, but I'm wondering what others think in more general terms so that it's not an AC Forum
https://receptionperception.com/curtis-samuel-2020-player-profile/
Last edited by a moderator:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
He came off in my startup yesterday before Reagor and after Mims. Ruggs just came off one round later. If that helps.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I don't have Samuel on my radar the way I should. Last year in the preseason I think I can be found as saying I was fading Ridley for no more reason than I just didn't know enough about him. I knew I should know more but my basic take was I have Julio everywhere and he isn't Julio.
So I hope I'm not making the same kind of mistake with Samuel. Because I would slam Ruggs and 2.11 today.
rockaction
Footballguy
Should very much be an accept on his end. I'm very much overpaying for a guy I think is way undervalued. Ruggs and him are almost equivalent, calc-wise. But when Matt Harmon was watching film and teased on Twitter, "no wonder the coaches are going after a new quarterback in Carolina," it became evident to me who he was talking about from watching some games. He's constantly open, especially deep. And I mean open. A bunch of us said to Hot Sauce Guy that he should not be quite as enthusiastic, but I think he was right. I think it's worth the pick to acquire him.
From Reception Perception, which I don't think he'll mind considering he's giving it two weeks free as a plug.
"He can operate as a slot receiver and rusher as he was for the Panthers last year but he can also win outside as a true receiver. Samuel has tested above the 88th percentile in success rate vs. man coverage in each of the last three seasons.
While he’s already proven himself as a good football player, the best could be yet to come for Samuel as he enters into the next chapter of his NFL career. We should all be hyped."
And yeah, I'm part seeing whether a guy who has never responded to me will. I'm sussing out long-term prospects of trading with him with this. If he doesn't accept or respond, then I'll know it wasn't the offer's value that is putting him off, but something else entirely, either it's me or it's because he's champ and doesn't want to tinker too much. I'm overpaying, but I think the value, as of this time next year, is with Samuel. And that's what we're trying to do, really. Beat the market rate.
But at the risk of getting too AC, this is really about Samuel. And Reception Perception's product (I have no affiliation to them in case anybody reading this has that inkling. Matt Harmon is a frequent contributor to Yahoo and does this now for a living). Harmon, who had Stefon Diggs tagged as a one of the best receivers in football before last year's breakout, watches all the film from all the receivers' games to get to the bottom of if they're winning routes when the ball isn't necessarily going to them. That's the pitch. So we'll see if he's right again. I tend to think so.
Last edited by a moderator:
Denver724
Footballguy
I traded Samuel and my 4.10 in a standard 1 QB 12-team league for the 1.12, 3.12 and Sam Darnold. I own a lot of Samuel, but couldn't decline that offer. Him not signing anywhere is somewhat concerning if he is supposed to be that good.
rockaction
Footballguy
Thanks for the info. That's great. You got a good deal. The 1.12 equals a little more than what I'm offering. I might take that for Samuel. As it is, Ruggs' ADP-scaled calc is a mid-2nd, so I'd be spending about two seconds for him. As far as signing goes, I'm not too deterred by the early non-interest. Golladay and Fuller have yet to fall, so yeah, it really depends on what his agents and team are looking for as far as a salary goes. Agholor and Bourne going to the Pats, Davis to the Jets, and M. Jones to the Jags tells me a little about the market for Samuel, but it's not determinant. We'll start to see when the big guys fall who winds up with him. Regardless, I'm willing to take the risk and eat the cost on this one.
I hope our particulars help everybody out in gauging value. Seems to be the only empirical way to go about finding out values that aren't pure calculators is to find what others are buying or selling.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I agree with Rock that the WR market just hasn't quite got there yet. None of the top names have come off yet.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Sure, the Malcolm Brown signing is "good" for Gaskin (although I'm not sure Brown isn't the better all around RB), but I'm not yet convinced the Dolphins are done adding to the RB depth chart.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'd be shocked if that was the case. I thought they had a ton of picks. Wouldn't be a splurge to take a top RB in there somewhere.
To me Brown is a bigger and better version of Gaskin and should fill largely the same role. Not nearly as fast but I think there is room for both as backups. Brown can back up the primary ball carrier *and* be a 3rd down back. Gaskin can as well but not as effectively IMO. Good depth signing.
IMO, whenever they say “terms not disclosed” on a signing it usually means the contract is for peanuts (at least what passes for peanuts in the NFL.) I would agree that Brown could be just cheap depth/veteran presence.
Last edited by a moderator:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I can't find it now but I believe it was a one year deal for $1.7 MM with under $1MM guaranteed. Not prohibitive to even adding another RB in free agency let alone the draft.
OTC is showing he got his whole contract of $1.75M guaranteed but for sure no one should think this takes them out of the RB market and it sure should not be seen as good news for any MIA incumbent RB.
kutta
Footballguy
Why should it not be good news? It’s much better than if Aaron Jones had signed, and it takes up a RB spot with a mediocre RB. If they filled the rest of their depth chart with Malcolm Browns, I’d be buying all the Gaskins I could get.
It's an addition of guaranteed money while doing zero to take them out of further additions. In other words it's just an addition which leaves me answering your question with a question. How is an addition good news?
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm inclined to think that the Miami backfield will be like New England's. A low-cost committee position (which is terrible for fantasy football) unless they invest draft capital in somebody. Which Brown and Gaskin don't preclude them from doing.
kutta
Footballguy
It does take them out of further additions. That’s an open slot that is now filled, so it’s one less spot for another guy.
And adding mediocrity is good for the incumbent. I’m just not seeing how this is a bad thing.
rockaction
Footballguy
I get what kutta is saying. It's better than Fournette, Carson, or Jones, who presumably would all come in to be the man in that situation. A guaranteed body is just that, and it clogs Miami's roster and RB depth, but I thought I read that his contract isn't guaranteed unless he makes the team. But I see what you're saying as well. In no way does this preclude draft capital from being used.
Oh come one with signing Malcom Brown precludes them from making a further addition, that's a horse poo take.
And regarding the bolded that's not what I said, at all. I said it's not good news and that's not the same thing as labeling it bad for a incumbent MIA RB.
All I know is both Spotrac and OTC show his pay as guaranteed and Spotrac is indicating a $1.75 cap hit if he's cut. I can't say what you read is not true, just what I see on those sites.
rockaction
Footballguy
Cool. I think I was reading Twitter speculation last night. What I read was not sourced. I'll try and dig a little deeper and find out.
kutta
Footballguy
Maybe I’m just missing something.
Most teams carry 3 or 4 RB’s. The Dolphins have Gaskin, Ahmed, and Breida. They just added Brown.
There are just very limited spots to add RB’s. Wasting one of those spots on a mediocre RB can only be good news for Gaskins.
Of course they can sign someone else. But now the chances of them signing another good RB AND drafting a RB early has just decreased.
So please explain how it is not good news.
rockaction
Footballguy
Breida was on a one year deal and isn't coming back. I'm not trying to flex, just adding to the understanding. I think you both have valid points. One less Breida, one more Brown.
And Ahmed is not under contract for them as of this moment, I can't imagine. They might not even have Gaskin under contract. Perhaps delving into that would help us understand their situation more.
And Ahmed is not under contract for them as of this moment, I can't imagine. They might not even have Gaskin under contract. Perhaps delving into that would help us understand their situation more.
Last edited by a moderator:
kutta
Footballguy
My point is, if signing a mediocre RB like Brown isn’t good news for Gaskins, tell me what signing would be good news.
rockaction
Footballguy
Just pulled from Bloom's Twitter Feed.
https://www.thephinsider.com/2021/3/17/22335653/draft-watch-running-back-remains-in-play-after-dolphins-acquire-malcolm-brown
https://www.thephinsider.com/2021/3/17/22335653/draft-watch-running-back-remains-in-play-after-dolphins-acquire-malcolm-brown
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
And that's where I agree with you. The more bodies they clog the roster with, the better for Gaskin.
rockaction
Footballguy
But they're drafting an RB, most likely. We won't know until late April-early May, and I wouldn't buy shares of Gaskin for anything if you made me.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
As was pointed out before I could reply Breida is gone, every RB on the team is mediocre but Brown is the highest paid of the group and based on his contract the least expendable, the draft has not yet happened and if they do want to sign another FA RB all the top RB's remain.
I do not take signing Malcolm Brown as good news or bad news, it's a barely relevant depth signing.
kutta
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
What incumbent are you talking about? Gaskin? He isn't the incumbent. There is no incumbent. They could have 20 RBs on their roster today and it doesn't mean anything about where they're going to be. And there is no such thing as good news for him unless they don't draft someone. I am operating under the assumption that it is a foregone conclusion they will do so.
Brown is bad news for Gaskin because he plays basically the same role. I just don't see a world where they think Gaskin should be the guy.
Brown is bad news for Gaskin because he plays basically the same role. I just don't see a world where they think Gaskin should be the guy.
kutta
Footballguy
For sure. But if they do want to keep Ahmed, the Brown signing leaves only one open spot at RB.
I’m just missing how filling one of the 2 or 3 open spots at RB with mediocrity is bad (or not good, or whatever you want to call it).
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I had him everywhere last year and he was the best FF running back fill-in one could ever hope for really. But no way is he NFL starting caliber besides in a break glass in case of emergency kind of way.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Marauder
Footballguy
A lot of times teams use these low level FA signings to give themselves options in the draft. Miami has a lot of high picks and they may well take a RB with one of them but I believe they're thinking that if the right RB doesn't fall to them in the right spot they'll be satisfied going into the season with a committee of Gaskin, Brown and Ahmed. So, as a Gaskin owner I'm kind of happy with this signing but still not real comfortable.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I actually said it was "good", but I don't think it precludes the Dolphins to add more RBs to the depth chart.
I think what you're missing is that in-season they will only carry 4-5 RBs but up until cutdowns they can add many more than that via FA and/or the draft (and even UDFAs).
It's even possible Gaskin doesn't make the team (unlikely but possible) if the other backs have better camps.
Last edited by a moderator:
rockaction
Footballguy
We've given the Lynn Bowden treatment to Miles Gaskin in this thread. Lots of Dolphin talk.
Time to get to some action. Where will the receivers land?
Time to get to some action. Where will the receivers land?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh, dude. I didn't even realize what thread I was in and assumed it was that one. Whoops. All this Gaskin value talk has me looking over my shoulder for FAs.I'll answer in the FA thread.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
It's cool just watch out for asking questions in the form of a question around here. Might get sideswiped.Oh, dude. I didn't even realize what thread I was in and assumed it was that one. Whoops. All this Gaskin value talk has me looking over my shoulder for FAs.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Value check on Josh Jacobs after Drake was signed? I know Jacobs tends to be divisive as an FFL starter and with a better than average Drake coming in, his volume will certainly take a hit, but at what point is he a buy low?
Birdie048
Footballguy
His window to sell high has passed. Buy Low? Not sure how you can project LVR Offense to support both RB for any RB2 value.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Non-ppr...
Value of Chubb vs Lamb? Would one have to offer extra to the other? Or is it just close enough to do an even swap?
Value of Chubb vs Lamb? Would one have to offer extra to the other? Or is it just close enough to do an even swap?
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
I would need a 2021 low first rounder / high second rounder to part with Chubb. RB scarcity is real and the talent levels at WR just seem to be getting better and better. Shoot, I remember back in the day when the 3rd year breakout for WRs was a real thing. Now, they had best be producing at a high level by year 2 or they get called a bust!
