Yeah, my bad. For some reason, I thought he had finished the season well, but he was complete ####e.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
TD is the most random variable here, and it was really low last year. His key value is TDs, without that he is basically unstartable. He scored 35 tds in 49 games with NE, let's not harp on the 3 he scored last year.
Similar to last year I expect him to be solid early, and then if Johnson is worth his salt, take more of a backseat. I don't like Johnson so trading a 5th for Blount isn't a big deal to me, and would prefer that to giving up something valuable (rookie QB/TE) for Lynch.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
I agree that Thomas is clearly ahead of the other two. ARob has the same kind of upside, but is in an unsettled situation. I'm more forgiving of Adams, his situation looks really positive for at least a couple of years.
I actually tried to trade ARob + Hogan for Adams in a league that I want the short term upside of Adams, was denied.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Even if he ends up somewhere, you have to wonder if he's going to be the next Hakeem Nicks. Big name but never the same after injury. Maybe Dwayne Bowe is a better comp. I don't know where he could even go for relevance, Indy I guess? Respect that he turned down Baltimore's offer because he thinks he still has it but I think it's more likely that he's washed and will be out of our thoughts by next year.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I can't believe the hype around Barkley.
He seems to be going insanely high in recent dynasty startups, sometimes going ahead of proven guys like Mike Evans. All of his upside seems priced in. If he's not as good as David Johnson/Elliot/Gurley/Bell he's pretty much a bust at his ADP.
He seems to be going insanely high in recent dynasty startups, sometimes going ahead of proven guys like Mike Evans. All of his upside seems priced in. If he's not as good as David Johnson/Elliot/Gurley/Bell he's pretty much a bust at his ADP.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
All Evans has proven is that he's a decent WR2 that will cost you high WR1 prices.
I mostly agree with you about Barkley, though I guess the upside is not only that he's as good as those guys, but that he's as good as those guys but is 21 years old instead of 24 or 26. Of course you take on a lot of risk for those extra few years.
kutta
Footballguy
I’d take Barkley over Evans in a heartbeat. If I’m not getting Gurley, Bell, Zeke, OBJ, or Hopkins in one way or another, I’m not moving Barkley.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
His per 16 average is 81/1,220/8, which would make him a WR1 most years. That's impressive for a 24 YO.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
IMO It's just bad strategy to invest that much in a player who has never set foot on the field. The situation in NY isn't exactly the 2016 Cowboys either. I know they have changed out their coach and tried to improve their OL, but last year was just a horrible situation for their RBs.
There are plenty of players in the 1.06 area that don't have the kind of downside that Barkley has. WRs also have longer career arcs for Dynasty.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
WR20, WR3, WR26, WR13
He's finished as a WR1 one time in four years, yet he costs high WR1 (currently the #3 or #4 ranked dynasty WR) prices. If I'm paying that kind of price for someone I want someone who's a difference maker. I don't want to pay that kind of price for a guy that's bleeding points against my opponent's WR1 most weeks.
A guy like Zeke/Bell/Gurley/DJ/OBJ (which is what people are hoping Barkley will be) that is an actual difference maker is infinitely more valuable to me.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It was at least partially self-inflicted, since their RBs were pretty horrible in their own right.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm not arguing for Evans over Barkley, but you're going overboard to make your point. Evans was a WR1/gm in 2 of his first 4 seasons. On average, he's been a WR1 (despite stretches of really bad QB play). At 24 YO, you should have to pay a lot for that.
kutta
Footballguy
There’s no strategy really. If you have the 1.01 pick you take Barkley. You don’t trade him unless you get a great offer. There’s no way I’m going to trade him for less than market value and see him go off for the next eight years on someone else’s team.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
"Barkley's upside is already priced into his value"
That's a pretty good way to describe Barkely, who I think (while probably very good) is terribly overrated/overvalued.
At times have seen him go pick 1 in a startup. Silly. Just silly.
That's a pretty good way to describe Barkely, who I think (while probably very good) is terribly overrated/overvalued.
At times have seen him go pick 1 in a startup. Silly. Just silly.
I agree that I would take Barkley over Evans straight up, but you don't seem to think very highly of Evans. Approximately where do you rank him as a WR?
Like Coop said, on a points per game basis, he's been a WR1 if you look at his whole career, including rookie year. The QB play hasn't always been that great, either. FWIW, over the past 4 years, both Evans and Hopkins are averaging 1.66 points per target (however, Evans is averaging 9.3 targets per game to Hopkins' 10.2). I'm using Hopkins because he's had similar QB play to Evans* and I'm using points per target because offenses change quickly in the NFL - we can't rely on targets being static. So again, I agree, Barkley > Evans, but you seem a little harsh on Evans. I'm looking at some rankings and Keenan is the only guy I could make a case for leap frogging Evans. The other WRs I like better are 5+ years older. I don't think Michael Thomas' outlook will be that rosy without Brees and I'm still not an Adams fan long term.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Winston is no world beater but I definitely wouldn't call him similarly bad to the true dreck that Hopkins has played with. And of course now Hopkins gets to move forward with a QB that it looks like might actually be good (or even better than that) while Evans is probably tied to his same QB he's had 3 WR13-WR26 seasons with for the foreseeable future.
Thomas already has more WR1 finishes than Evans despite being in the league for half as long.
I agree rankings wise there aren't really that many people to move over Evans. I guess there is a difference between just pure rankings and perceived value. While I may only think Evans' ranking is a spot or two too high, I think his perceived value is way too high as people consider him an elite asset, which I do not. I would not just take Barkley over him, I would easily take Barkley over him. And where most would probably consider the gap between Evans and someone like OBJ to be a future 1st, I'm not sure I would even be interested in Evans + 2 1sts for OBJ.
He's a nice player. But he's just not one of those dominant guys that you see on a bunch of championship rosters. However, in terms of value he's often treated as if he is.
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Tau837
Footballguy
His career average is 15.8 ppg (PPR). Last year, that would have ranked as WR9. But, of course, last year, he finished as WR20, because his career average is propped up by his 1 elite season. He has failed to meet expectations in 2 of the past 3 seasons, and he is stuck for the next 10+ years with an average (at best) QB. IMO he is generally overrated, so I don't think @FreeBaGeL went overboard at all.
Barkely is every bit worth pick 1.1 or 1.3 at worst and it's actually the opposite of risky, it's about the safest pick you can make.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Winston is 24. It’s absolutely laughable to claim the Heisman winning, BCS champion, former top overall pick, and ROTY is destined to settle in at average at best after a down year.
You’re going overboard, my friend. Name the guys you’re taking over Mike.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Funny thing, last year most would have had to give picks with Hopkins to get Evans. He's becoming underrated by some around here now. (As is Winston imo)
Break that down please. I don't see how he could be called a safe pick in the top 5.
I called him a safe top 3 pick actually.
It's a combo of his skill set and the floor his receiving game work provides, youth, clean character, multiple year history of analyzing super young players that hold their value even if they don't take the league by storm out of the gate. It's a no brainer for me, not a no brainer to go 1.1, but a no brainer top 3 pick.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I know you said 3. I said 5. 5 would imply also 3, but 2 more.
You're right that he'll hold some value even if he falters his rookie year. He's not the same player, he's better, but I just remember Reggie Bush and all the hype he got. All one has to do is mention Trent Richardson to make a point. I think he does much better, but players who have never played a snap in the NFL just aren't safe picks.
He might be worth a top 3 pick. I took him 1.09 in a super flex and traded a lot for him in another league. But I wasn't going for safe with those moves.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Trent Richardson was the #1 overall dynasty player entering his second year.I know you said 3. I said 5. 5 would imply also 3, but 2 more.
You're right that he'll hold some value even if he falters his rookie year. He's not the same player, he's better, but I just remember Reggie Bush and all the hype he got. All one has to do is mention Trent Richardson to make a point. I think he does much better, but players who have never played a snap in the NFL just aren't safe picks.
He might be worth a top 3 pick. I took him 1.09 in a super flex and traded a lot for him in another league. But I wasn't going for safe with those moves.
I'm with you though, I certainly wouldn't call a guy like Barkley, who's big glaring weakness is that he was a RB that graded poorly running between the tackles, as particularly "safe". But if we want to move the goalposts just a little you can make a pretty strong argument that Barkley's short term value is very safe.
I don't have the time to dig up the numbers again right now, but back when we were having this same discussion about Zeke I remember running a study that basically said if a rookie had a good enough combination of talent and opportunity to have a redraft ADP in the first 3 rounds of redraft drafts (as I imagine Barkley will have) their hit rate on their rookie season was incredible. Something like 8 out of 9 finished as at least a top 12 RB as a rookie and saw their dynasty value catapult heading into year 2. In that sense I think Barkley is pretty safe. Even if he bangs away for 3.6ypc with nothing more than volume fantasy stats a la Richardson, his value will likely be even higher next year.
Meanwhile, guys like Hunt and Kamara are sitting there as first round startup picks and the history of those guys is much worse. Rookie RBs that go for 1000+ yards after being picked outside the first round of the NFL draft have a horrendus hit rate.
Alfred Morris
Steve Slaton
Matt Forte
Eddie Lacy
LaGarrette Blount
Domanic Davis
Jeremy Hill
Giovanni Bernard
Jordan Howard
Zac Stacy
It's always interesting to me when people (not you) mis-use terms like "safe" and "proven". I imagine there are no shortage of people that would consider Hunt and Kamara as "safe" and "proven" relative to Barkley, but I think it is far more likely that their value decreases significantly in the next year than it is for Barkley.
ETA: That list was a couple years old. David Johnson also qualifies now which helps things out a bit.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Fair points for sure.
Are we talking value or actual performance when we're talking about safety?
As much as I like Kamara I think you're right that his value is more likely to drop. Especially if the unexpected happens and he starts losing reps to Boston Scott.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I'd be interested to see how you calculated that a running back who has never played a down is the safest pick you can make.
RBs have a way higher injury rate, and a way way shorter career than elite WRs.
The safest dynasty pick you can make is an elite and young WR with an elite and young QB.
It's not even an opinion, it's math.
I clarified top 3 because I'm emphasizing the point. I'm not running from this, not looking for an out. I'm saying top 3, I'm not saying top 10 or top 5. Keeping in mind no one is bulletproof 100% safe, it's just a matter of identifying the safest.I know you said 3. I said 5. 5 would imply also 3, but 2 more.
You're right that he'll hold some value even if he falters his rookie year. He's not the same player, he's better, but I just remember Reggie Bush and all the hype he got. All one has to do is mention Trent Richardson to make a point. I think he does much better, but players who have never played a snap in the NFL just aren't safe picks.
He might be worth a top 3 pick. I took him 1.09 in a super flex and traded a lot for him in another league. But I wasn't going for safe with those moves.
If you look back at RB's who have gone in top 10 going back to Trent not a single one of them lost value from year one to two. Depending on if you look at CMC in PPG or total points every RB taken in top 10 going back to Trent finished in top 10 their rookie season(PPR) so they not only are safe for production but again none lost value. Then look at other first round picks since that time. Doug Martin was going #1 or #2 in startups after his rookie year. Melvin Gordon kind of stunk his rookie year and he did not lose value. David Wilson did squat his rookie year and gained value. You got to go back to pre-Trent to find a first round RB who lost value from year one to two.
But other then pedigree what makes this so easy is his pass catching. That creates the safety and why I think people debating how good of an interior runner he is are looking at this the wrong way. Look at McCaffrey as an example. He was a total flop as a runner and he's still going in round 2 of startups.
First off read some because I already said why.
And to clarify I'm talking his value from 2018 to 2019, this should have been obvious and not needed to be clarified.
It's like I tell people all the time when they ask me for dynasty advice and one of first things I tell them is don't be that guy who has to see it first. Don't be you basically.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Haha, I do pretty well for myself with a conservative approach. Enough people are like you and are willing to give up young proven studs for hopes of the next big thing.
I don't understand why you would only be talking about 2018 to 2019 value in the context of a dynasty startup pick.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Close for me. I could see myself preferring either side, depending on the roster. As WR is so shallow, I'd lean Cooper in a vacuum.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
This is too broad a stroke to have any value. Kamara didn't rush for 1,000 (which is good?) and Hunt ran for 1,300+. Hunt lead the league in rushing. Using that as in indicator - which I'd argue is a much better model - he's a coin flip for the HOF.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think it's an interesting one. I certainly concede that you're right: Barkley's short-term value is bulletproof. But that only has value if you act on it, which is still a dicey proposition. With the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to say you'd have moved on from Trent, for example, after year 1. But at the time, it was a tough call and most didn't. Which I think is KM's point. It's nice that Joe Mixon owners (a current example) have a nice sell window if they want it, but most are holding - and I'm not sure that's the wrong move.
I really don't know what to say. All players value is year to year and leagues I play in trade. Just don't know what else there is to say or why that needed to be explained.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
You could respond to the reasoning I provided. Or don't. But don't straw man me by omitting it from your quote.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The list is for guys that went for 1,000 total, not rushing, so Kamara qualifies.
You're not wrong about Hunt. We look at 1200+ yard rushing rookies and the list is mostly hall of famers (more than just a coin flip, really). So that's a fair point.
Still, it's a good cautionary tale. A lot of those guys were thought of and valued as highly as Hunt/Kamara are coming off their rookie years. I still remember Domanick Davis going 4th overall in my first ever dynasty startup coming off his rookie year.
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Well this begs the question. Whats Hunter Henry worth now?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I agree. I just think it make sense to drill down a bit more on guys like Hunt and Kamara. They were day 2 picks who racked up 1,500+. Adjust the constraints a little bit and I assume (haven't done the work) the outlook is pretty good.
I certainly agree that we've been too high on guys like Howard, to pick a recent example.
Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
The 3rd year "stud" WR you selected by "a mile" had exactly 29 more receiving yards than the rookie RB. He almost broke 700 receiving yards, but just missed that impressive yardstick. Check Cooper's 2017 game logs. He had 3 legitimately good games (week 1, 7, and 14 - good luck picking when to start him) and if you were starting him every week, Cooper likely cost you even making the playoffs on every team you owned him on since he was terrible all year. Dude disappears every time the fantasy playoffs roll around, too. Weeks 15-16 career stats:
- 2015: 2 for 10 and 2 for 20. 0 TDs
- 2016: 5 for 76 and 4 for 39 and a TD.
- 2017: week 11 was 1 for 9 and 1 TD, missed week 12, was shut out week 13 and missed week 14. He produced in weeks 15 and 16 but NO ONE STARTED HIM, assuming they lucked into the playoffs with the rest of their roster.
Cooper was WR36 in 2017. If you remove his 44 point game, he scored 8.17 points per game over 14 games, which was WR61 on a PPG basis. Repeat: he was WR61 on a PPG basis, minus his outlier game.
Oh yeah, give me Cooper by a mile.
I'm not going to ignroe Coopers first two seasons and fact he is one of only 3 WR's to have been drafted since 2014 to have a 1,000 yard season and one of only two to do it twice, so say nothing of doing it as a 21/22 year old. Yes he had a bad season, the whole offense had a bad season but that does not define his career.
CMC averaged 27 yards rushing a game and only thing that saved him from being a massive bust was catching 80 passes. Which would be fine because points are points but it's the fear of that catch total dropping that has me worried because he was not that great in receiving either last year, averaging just 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Now add to that the owner and GM who drafted him and OC tasked with using him have all left the building.
I got Cooper down as rebounding big time this year with a coach who will knows how to move him around. Like play him in the slot, like they did last year in that one massive game you want to remove. McCaffrey is my #2 candidate right now for bust of the year. I did not like what I saw from him and got fears he's not getting his touches manufactured this year. I moved him this off season in one of the leagues I own him, and took less than market value. Still own him in one league and have tried to unload him but so far coming up empty. I would in fact trade him in a second if I could unload him for Cooper.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Well obviously anyone buying on Cooper is hoping this season was an abberration and not indicative of future seasons.
As to the fantasy playoffs, in both of Cooper's "good" years he got hurt toward the end of the year and was playing banged up those weeks.
Why are people high on Cooper? They realize that Jon Gruden has pretty much never presided over a good offense right? His best offense was 15th on the season throughout his HC career if I recall correctly. I just can’t get behind any of his offensive pieces. Being a good defensive coach and good evaluator of quarterback talent does not give him an automatic pass on offense.
kutta
Footballguy
I’m actually a little sad he got hurt. I don’t own any shares, but was looking forward to seeing him be the man there.
He’s still a top dyansty TE - just dropped a few spots I’d guess.
