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I get it so maybe Hilton is a bad example but let me ask this, if you use your own wr ranks. What wr is worth ~ 1.2 or 1.3 right now? I'm wondering how far down the wr list people are going. Maybe I'm wrong and I just have Hilton ranked higher than most but I'm not sure
WR is tough right now. Juju is worth the same as 1.2 or 1.3. Corey Davis is close. There's no one outside the top 30 overall who is. There are players like Landry and Watkins that you can add something to get to 1.3 but not straight up.
I guess it really depends on the guy, more than going "down the list" I would be more interested in moving those guys for younger WRs like Cooper/Adams than I would for aging guys like AJG unless I was really on the verge of a title.
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What are people’s thought on Watkins right now? Reading a few other threads I see people ranking him as a WR2 (13-24 range) with WR1 upside and I see others saying he’s 3rd in the pecking order on his own team behind Hill and Kelce and that he’ll be lucky to sniff WR3 numbers.
I have Watkins ranked at WR22 myself, although that's probably too optimistic. He's actually right behind TY Hilton. They are both in the same tier as all the other top RB's from this years class other than Guice and Barkley.
Watkins is the type of player I like, but the KC situation adds some risk not just in pecking order but also Mahomes. My assumption is that this year at least Hill and Watkins cancel each other out and make both inconsistent but high upside starts all year. Of course it's not impossible for 2 WR to be relevant with mediocre passing yardage, as Minnesota didn't break 4000 passing yards, had a viable TE and 3rd down RB, and still had 2 good WR. But it certainly helps. He's 1 day older than Cooper Kupp (turns 25 in June) and 18 mos older than Corey Davis so has a lot of career ahead of him unless a future injury reduces his athleticism. Willing to continue to wait it out on him and would value him about WR18.
I mentioned him as one of my favorite "throw-in" type targets in another thread and he's my favorite low-level RB target. His receiving ability brought a new element to that offense in the playoffs. He led them in catches vs. ATL and in receiving yards vs. NE.
Would agree, dynamically the position is in heavy transition. You've got the untouchables unless you hugely overpay like Hopkins, OBJ, Allen, and Michael Thomas, but besides that? The former studs have all aged to the point where their trade value could take a major hit with the slightest hint of injury or decline: Antonio, AJG, Julio, DT (already took a hit), Baldwin. Young high-pedigree guys that have disappointed: Evans (trade value hasn't declined much though) & Cooper. A ton of guys whose situation has either changed this offseason, has got question marks, or a lot of competition: Cooks/Kupp/Woods, Tyreek/Watkins, ARob, Adams, Landry, Robby Anderson, Diggs/Thielen, Agholor, Funchess/Moore. At least those guys are mostly still very young.
Agree with this...I like his game...the question is can he go from being a good real football player to a productive fantasy player...looking at the Eagles depth chart he has a great opportunity...there is no dominant RB there...Ajayi should be it but he has his questions...after that you have a group of guys with real big swings in Smallwood, Adams, Sproles, Pumphrey and I guess even Matt Jones...if Clement is what I think he can be that is a group he should be able to beat out...
He added a stipulation that if J Williams doesn't lead GB in carries this year I get his 2nd round pick next year
He was cut in some FFPC dynasty leagues so was put in rookie/FA draft in some. I saw him going in the mid to high second range in few leagues I saw him available, 3.1 being the latest.
That's pretty surprising to me. I have both and I would feel sick starting Blount any week. Lynch? no sick feelings.
I had late 2nd in mind so that lines up with FFPC, but the 2 teams with good rosters and junk at RB2 (seriously, one guy has Blount at RB2 and one has Stewart, and neither are getting a top 8 rookie) seem to disagree in my main league. Sounds like a better hold and flip early if @thriftyrocker is right about his current value and you are right about his workload.
And Matt Jones
I'm assuming a deep league where 3rd round picks are kept for at least a year.
Nah, I think you're just betting you are getting 2nd half of 2017 Lynch instead of first half. Lynch was a totally different player from week 9 and was a low RB1 over the 2nd half. I grabbed him for a 3rd when he got suspended week 8 and he was a very good starter while Zeke was out for me.
Because he got 1/4 what Lynch is getting paid with nothing guaranteed and hasn't averaged 3 ypc in a couple years. Plus Gruden has said they plan to ride beast mode (not that April coach speak means anything).
We all might process the information differently but based on what I've read and listened to various takes from multiple sources I fully believe that is the plan. Here is one article which kind of sums up a lot of it: We want to go Beast Mode this year
Glass half full vs. half empty....Buckna said:
I agree, I'm a bit surprised how little people want to take a shot at the current #2 in a fairly open backfield on one of the league's best offenses. People have been paying a lot more to chase whatever random Packers or Patriots RB they could find for years.
The Eagles had 1 pick in the first 3 rounds total with only 5 total picks overall. After trading down and acquiring a future 2nd and no picks in the current draft, they then traded back up again in the 2nd to fill the hole left by Burton leaving (5 RB's were already off the board by then as well.) After that they didn't pick again until the 4th round when the RB pickings were sparse. They never had a chance to draft Penny who they interviewed. RoJo was drafted before they came up again, they passed on Guice but so did a ####-ton of other teams. Considering they had barely any picks to start with, I'd hardly call them not taking a RB in the draft an endorsement of their current roster, especially considering they immediately brought in multiple other guys and signed two of them once the draft concluded.
I think we'll be looking back on this and wondering which RB the Eagles will be drafting with that extra 2nd rounder in 2019.
Great post...Clement has a great opportunity...he is by no means a definite but his competition could be far worst...everyone else in that backfield has their warts...he may never have a better chance in his career to establish himself...
Well, he sweetened the deal. Now it's Williams & his 2019 2nd for my 1.13 this year
I’ve been buying Clement everywhere I can this offseason. I loved what I saw out of him last season and there is a lot of upside in that offense
I agree with you that the offer isn't strong enough to act on. Pick 13 according to my list would be Anthony Miller, Christian Kirk, Michael Gallup or Courtland Sutton (if I am not picking Gesicki or Lamar Jackson there). While I only see these WR as having tier two type upside, that is still pretty valuable in my view and more valuable than than Williams. The 13th overall pick could make an impact to the roster this year, or if not at least be a year further in their development than the 2019 2nd round pick would be. When you consider the time value discount that 2nd round pick in 2019 is closer to 3rd round type value.
I think Adams is a fluke. He's outside the top12 WR's for me. I think in terms of picks, Michael Thomas should be worthy of 1.02 + more, and Arob is about equal to 1.02. I'm a fan of both of them. Thomas is likely underappreciated by the dynasty community since he seems to be a quiet producer. But that's all he does, is produce. Arob is harder to be confident on but he's part of that godly class of WR's (along with Adams), and produced a lot earlier in his career than Adams did, Arob is also the youngest of the bunch.
I'm concerned about Gruden turning Oakland into a total **** show, but assuming they are mediocre, I think he's worth at least a late 2nd in a position of need. But I'd still be looking for another back. He was healthy last year, but a lot of people mistakenly thought he was done in 2015 due to his lingering back injury. At 32, a back injury could easily resurface.
This is crazy talk. Lynch put up 625/5 rushing and 16/114 receiving in the last 8 games. Blount is in a crowded backfield with a relatively highly drafted rookie and has never had 16 receptions in 16 games. Lynch has less competition and a better history of receptions. And FWIW, I've always been a big Blount fan.
He's worth way more than Blount which was part of your original statement.
"Way more" doesn't qualify if you can get any pick for Blount. Basically the same player this year. Midround WR on a good offense.
Blount's ceiling and floor are both drastically lower than Lynch's, thus Lynch is worth way more. IMO, Blount is a borderline drop (unless situation changes) while Lynch is worth at least a late 2nd to a team in need.
I agree his ceiling for 2018 is higher (much higher, even) but that doesn't affect his value much until October because no one wants to give up a mediocre draft pick for a rental (in a deep league). In a shallower league, then sure you can find a buyer more easily, because they don't want to roster a developmental player anyway. I think most owners in my leagues would rather take a chance on the QB/TE left in the late 2nd than take on Lynch. Doesn't make it right, but I think that's the problem with his value in the real world.
Oh, I fully agree with your "most owners" statement, which is why I said the average Lynch seller will probably have to settle for a 3rd... but his question was about a contender in need of RB help.
I am low on Kerryon and think he will start slow. I would take the over on 120. The Lions had 360 carries last year but I expect more than that this year. He is a committee back who should get goalline, we all know what he is. Maybe 40-50% of the carries puts him at 180.
Solid depth/bye week starter
Mid RB2? The dude was RB44 last year. RB62 in ppg. 62!!! And now this year he's a year further beyond 30 years old, in an even muddier backfield than he entered last year in, on a team that's much worse running the football.
